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As recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be - and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60
That's perfectly correct, you don't have to depend on paid jobs to earn a living, explore other good and reliable ways of creating wealth no matter what most people say about diddle.
@@susannicky I'm pleased to have come across this conversation. Could you kindly provide me with the contact information of your investment advisor? I am in urgent need of one.
Thank you for providing this helpful pointer. I managed to find the contact information for ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER , and she appears to be highly skilled and adaptable. I have scheduled a call session with her.
thank you sir for the fruitful video. but i have a question. what happen (effects) to the consumer spending and to the international trade when the CPI falls?
hi your videos are very helpful! can you explain the reason why the CPI must use a fixed basket? or is there some other way we could account for the fact that people substitute across goods?
No Toilet Paper, No Towels and reduction of Housekeeping services… Is this a sign?! Could Marriott or any other HOTEL businesses go DOWN HILL with high interest rates and in today’s economy?! True and recent story: I work for one of the many Marriott Franchise business in the Disney Resort Hotel, FL. The owner of our franchise used to brag that we are one of the biggest properties in the USA with almost 500 rooms … located at an area called Flamingo Hills crossings, we are the closest Marriott franchise to Disney Entrance. It started about a month ago when our management team shared that in the next day or two we would “SWITCHING” housekeeping to a different company - which in reality only meant a “CUT in HOUSEKEEPING SERVICES” because we fired a bunch of house keeping people (probably undocumented due to DeSantis new law on immigration) - The only people left were a few housekeeping supervisors and managers… plus a handful of new workforce the “NEW”Housekeeping company brought in… It all happened overnight and had major impact on the already low hotel service offered with the “EVERY OTHER DAY HOUSEKEEING” for our guests. And surely enough, just about a week after the changes there was an increase of guest’s COMPLAINTS about disgusting stinky rooms, dirty sheets and beds, and of course more bugs (ants, roaches and bedbugs) during their stay! And I am taking about the week of Memorial Day holiday, when hotels are at full capacity and sold out most of the days… We survived the Memorial Day week but next thing was, as the hotel occupation started ramping up as expected for the summer time, the shortage of supplies became more evident and the managers with covering up excuses (lies) about the shortage of toilet paper, trash bags, laundry detergent to wash the hotel’s towels, office supplies towels, etc… Not to count, maintenance issues with AC’s and appliances not being fixed in the rooms and the the shortage, increase of work load and pressure to ensure no OT… our restaurant didn’t have a cook, front desk staff that are on salary having to stay late to do laundry towels… A complete operation DISASTER that fortunately, to the Marriott and Hotel business, many guests don’t complain about either because: The are too excited and too busy spending their vacation at the parks Plus they get distracted with the smiles and sweat of the front desk people that are pressured and trained with codes to make those issues look like it is one of a kind for the operation Or for the more upset guests that are determined to address the issues about their vacation/stay end up getting “BOUGHT OUT” with some 20k or 30k points BONUS on their hotel membership or a free one night stay. And just a few days ago, comes the so 4th of July week, rooms pretty much SOLD OUT… now it is when I realize that the PROBLEM might be much bigger! One would think that the hotel management would have used the profit from 5/24/24 to stack up and prepare for the next hotel’s busiest week… Guess what, they did not!!!! There was once again shortage of supplies, toiletry and at a point we RAN OUT of things… a few of our guests had to go BUY TOILET PAPER from TARGET across street. Room were allowed to be occupied with no body or hand soap (bars or liquid), shampoo and conditioner… We were handing pool towels to our guests because there was not enough towels for all the guest we were hosting… and find out that the problems was not just that we did not have enough people to do the Landry BUT that the hotel had not added new towels to inventory for a while so there was barely enough towel to cover all the rooms specially if they had more than 2 guests. AC not running in an entire floor for a couple of days, no AC in the breakfast area and guests sleeping with rooms at 80 degrees because AC broken and we had no better rooms to offer to them. And just recently heard from a couple of managers that we had issues and no money to order things from the hotel’s Amazon business account and that we will run out of key cards because the budget got reduced… I am wondering… could it be that the that with high interest rates vs cost of operations for a 500 rooms hotel plus the recession that is just starting makes this Marriott hotel franchise franchise is no longer profitable OR maybe there is a renewal of the mortgage that the owners won’t be able to pay and have to let the business default? What happen in that case?! Would Marriott Corporate take over?
The problem when comparing inflation between countries is that they might both use CPI but will include different items and weightings in their CPI. For example, in China, pork is a major staple and is important when calculating CPI. However, in Saudi Arabia, pork would be limited in the calculation - if at all.
As unemployment falls, consumers earn and spend more money. This leads to inflationary pressure causing prices to rise for most consumer goods. The opposite is true as well. As unemployment rises, consumers have less income and less money to spend, decreasing demand pressure for goods and services causing the price of consumer goods to fall.
Broad money is one measure of the money supply. Increasing the money supply should increase spending by individuals and firms thus increasing the demand for goods and services. Since the demand for labor is derived from the demand for goods and services the level of unemployment in an economy would fall. The opposite is also true.
Can you explain the use of weights in calculating the CPI? Actually the notes I got from my teacher have a different way of calculating CPI, which involves weights.
Sure thing. This is a simplification of the calculation that leaves out the weightings when arriving at the price of the market basket. The values I share in the columns for the price of the market basket would be assuming all weightings have been considered and factored into the price of the market basket. Your notes probably include something like the material shared in this video: th-cam.com/video/2bE2kirprVY/w-d-xo.html
Okay I get that, but what's also confusing me is that in my notes, my teacher used the price of market basket ( after weightings) to be the actual CPI as it is, and the percentage change in the cost of market basket to be the inflation rate. There's no concept of dividing the cost of basket to that of the base year and then multiplying it by 100. So what's the logic behind that part?
Even in the video whose link you attached, it's using the calculation where it divides the basket price by the base year price and multiplies it by 100. That means the CPI comes into percentage form already, so then they simply take its difference and that is the inflation rate. In your video, however, I'm confused that you first changed the CPI into percentage, and then further took the percentage change for inflation, not the simple difference in percentages of CPI. Are you getting me?
The Consumer Price Index is not a money value. The approach your teacher has given will give you the same answer but the proper process is to turn the money value of the basket of goods into an index, with respect to a base year.
CPI is not a percentage. I think you're not clear on what an index is. The index is not a currency value nor percentage. Therefore we can say the CPI in the base year is 100. Not $100 or 100%, just 100.
It gives more weighting to products whose price changes are likely to have a bigger impact on consumers. For example, in China, pork is one of the top choices in cooking. It should have more weight in the price index than a less frequently eaten meat such as goat meat or turkey. If the price of pork doubles, Chinese consumers will feel it. If the price of goat doubles, it won’t impact the average consumer as much.
A simple explanation might help. Imagine I purchase two kilograms of beef and one kilogram of chicken a week. An increase in the price of beef will impact me more than an equal increase in the price of chicken. Therefore, my simple market basket would be (Price of beef *.66) + (Price of chicken *.34). The weight of beef is .66 compared to the weight of chicken (.34) in that market basket. Make sense?
As recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains
well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in
markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just
how bad they think the next downturn might be - and how far
stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments
to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio
of at least $850k at the age of 60
That's perfectly correct, you don't have to depend on paid jobs to earn a living, explore other good and reliable ways of creating wealth no matter what most people say about diddle.
@@susannicky I'm pleased to have come across this conversation. Could you kindly provide me with the contact information of your investment advisor? I am in urgent need of one.
Thank you for providing this helpful pointer. I managed to find the contact information for ROCH DUNGCA-SCHREIBER , and she appears to be highly skilled and adaptable. I have scheduled a call session with her.
Like if you came after wasting your time watching the NBC video
Same here
Thank you for watching!
Very helpful, easy to understand. Thank you so much
Very informative especially with the issues of cpi
thank you sir for the fruitful video. but i have a question. what happen (effects) to the consumer spending and to the international trade when the CPI falls?
Thank you for simplifying this!
Extremely helpful! Thank you, sir!
hi your videos are very helpful! can you explain the reason why the CPI must use a fixed basket? or is there some other way we could account for the fact that people substitute across goods?
Actually the fact that people substitute goods is a shortcoming of using the CPI to accurately measure how price changes are impacting consumers.
No Toilet Paper, No Towels and reduction of Housekeeping services… Is this a sign?! Could Marriott or any other HOTEL businesses go DOWN HILL with high interest rates and in today’s economy?!
True and recent story:
I work for one of the many Marriott Franchise business in the Disney Resort Hotel, FL. The owner of our franchise used to brag that we are one of the biggest properties in the USA with almost 500 rooms … located at an area called Flamingo Hills crossings, we are the closest Marriott franchise to Disney Entrance.
It started about a month ago when our management team shared that in the next day or two we would “SWITCHING” housekeeping to a different company - which in reality only meant a “CUT in HOUSEKEEPING SERVICES” because we fired a bunch of house keeping people (probably undocumented due to DeSantis new law on immigration) - The only people left were a few housekeeping supervisors and managers… plus a handful of new workforce the “NEW”Housekeeping company brought in…
It all happened overnight and had major impact on the already low hotel service offered with the “EVERY OTHER DAY HOUSEKEEING” for our guests.
And surely enough, just about a week after the changes there was an increase of guest’s COMPLAINTS about disgusting stinky rooms, dirty sheets and beds, and of course more bugs (ants, roaches and bedbugs) during their stay!
And I am taking about the week of Memorial Day holiday, when hotels are at full capacity and sold out most of the days…
We survived the Memorial Day week but next thing was, as the hotel occupation started ramping up as expected for the summer time, the shortage of supplies became more evident and the managers with covering up excuses (lies) about the shortage of toilet paper, trash bags, laundry detergent to wash the hotel’s towels, office supplies towels, etc…
Not to count, maintenance issues with AC’s and appliances not being fixed in the rooms and the the shortage, increase of work load and pressure to ensure no OT… our restaurant didn’t have a cook, front desk staff that are on salary having to stay late to do laundry towels…
A complete operation DISASTER that fortunately, to the Marriott and Hotel business, many guests don’t complain about either because:
The are too excited and too busy spending their vacation at the parks
Plus they get distracted with the smiles and sweat of the front desk people that are pressured and trained with codes to make those issues look like it is one of a kind for the operation
Or for the more upset guests that are determined to address the issues about their vacation/stay end up getting “BOUGHT OUT” with some 20k or 30k points BONUS on their hotel membership or a free one night stay.
And just a few days ago, comes the so 4th of July week, rooms pretty much SOLD OUT… now it is when I realize that the PROBLEM might be much bigger!
One would think that the hotel management would have used the profit from 5/24/24 to stack up and prepare for the next hotel’s busiest week…
Guess what, they did not!!!!
There was once again shortage of supplies, toiletry and at a point we RAN OUT of things… a few of our guests had to go BUY TOILET PAPER from TARGET across street.
Room were allowed to be occupied with no body or hand soap (bars or liquid), shampoo and conditioner…
We were handing pool towels to our guests because there was not enough towels for all the guest we were hosting… and find out that the problems was not just that we did not have enough people to do the Landry BUT that the hotel had not added new towels to inventory for a while so there was barely enough towel to cover all the rooms specially if they had more than 2 guests.
AC not running in an entire floor for a couple of days, no AC in the breakfast area and guests sleeping with rooms at 80 degrees because AC broken and we had no better rooms to offer to them.
And just recently heard from a couple of managers that we had issues and no money to order things from the hotel’s Amazon business account and that we will run out of key cards because the budget got reduced…
I am wondering…
could it be that the that with high interest rates vs cost of operations for a 500 rooms hotel plus the recession that is just starting makes this Marriott hotel franchise franchise is no longer profitable OR maybe there is a renewal of the mortgage that the owners won’t be able to pay and have to let the business default?
What happen in that case?! Would Marriott Corporate take over?
This video is helpful. However, cpi is an index for comparing the price level of one country. I wonder if there is a wayto comparing two countries.
The problem when comparing inflation between countries is that they might both use CPI but will include different items and weightings in their CPI. For example, in China, pork is a major staple and is important when calculating CPI. However, in Saudi Arabia, pork would be limited in the calculation - if at all.
EnhanceTuition Thanks for replying.
Helpful for board exams
Can i ask you a question: is this how the US calculate the CPI?
Is the inflation rate is compare by year or base year ?
Please explain the relationship of CPI & unemployment
As unemployment falls, consumers earn and spend more money. This leads to inflationary pressure causing prices to rise for most consumer goods. The opposite is true as well. As unemployment rises, consumers have less income and less money to spend, decreasing demand pressure for goods and services causing the price of consumer goods to fall.
Thank you
Can you please explain the relationship of Broad money & unemployment ?
Broad money is one measure of the money supply. Increasing the money supply should increase spending by individuals and firms thus increasing the demand for goods and services. Since the demand for labor is derived from the demand for goods and services the level of unemployment in an economy would fall. The opposite is also true.
Thank you ☺
Shouldn't it be just 100 instead of 100% while calculating inflation rate with CPI? (the one multiplied in the denominator)
Sir cpi macro level par caluclate hoti ya micro level par....??
Can you explain the use of weights in calculating the CPI? Actually the notes I got from my teacher have a different way of calculating CPI, which involves weights.
Sure thing. This is a simplification of the calculation that leaves out the weightings when arriving at the price of the market basket. The values I share in the columns for the price of the market basket would be assuming all weightings have been considered and factored into the price of the market basket.
Your notes probably include something like the material shared in this video: th-cam.com/video/2bE2kirprVY/w-d-xo.html
Okay I get that, but what's also confusing me is that in my notes, my teacher used the price of market basket ( after weightings) to be the actual CPI as it is, and the percentage change in the cost of market basket to be the inflation rate. There's no concept of dividing the cost of basket to that of the base year and then multiplying it by 100. So what's the logic behind that part?
Even in the video whose link you attached, it's using the calculation where it divides the basket price by the base year price and multiplies it by 100. That means the CPI comes into percentage form already, so then they simply take its difference and that is the inflation rate. In your video, however, I'm confused that you first changed the CPI into percentage, and then further took the percentage change for inflation, not the simple difference in percentages of CPI. Are you getting me?
The Consumer Price Index is not a money value. The approach your teacher has given will give you the same answer but the proper process is to turn the money value of the basket of goods into an index, with respect to a base year.
CPI is not a percentage. I think you're not clear on what an index is. The index is not a currency value nor percentage. Therefore we can say the CPI in the base year is 100. Not $100 or 100%, just 100.
how do i read the chart ?
thank you sir
Please suggest some books
Do you have a specific area of economics you are interested in? If you let me know I can offer some suggestions.
you are amazing
Economic collapse is inevitable. The question is when?
Thanks!
How does weighted price index differ
It gives more weighting to products whose price changes are likely to have a bigger impact on consumers.
For example, in China, pork is one of the top choices in cooking. It should have more weight in the price index than a less frequently eaten meat such as goat meat or turkey. If the price of pork doubles, Chinese consumers will feel it. If the price of goat doubles, it won’t impact the average consumer as much.
Base year... I don't get it
The base year is the comparison year. Where are you confused?
شكرا
❤
What is weighted price index 😶
A simple explanation might help. Imagine I purchase two kilograms of beef and one kilogram of chicken a week. An increase in the price of beef will impact me more than an equal increase in the price of chicken. Therefore, my simple market basket would be (Price of beef *.66) + (Price of chicken *.34). The weight of beef is .66 compared to the weight of chicken (.34) in that market basket.
Make sense?
@@EnhanceTuition thx
Thank you for simplifying this!