On the subject of continuing incremental improvement in healthspan, I am a boomer (72) and an active personal trainer and I see a tepid at best (generally) commitment to improving in either the sick or healthy in the aging boomer population. LOTS of talk on how to get healthy but sadly very little consistent application...As attributed to Henry Ford:'If you think you can ...you can.If you think you can't, you can't.'We are really short a shift in societal mindset.I talk to younger friends in gerontology who are dealing with mind numbing levels of non compliance and effort in clients and caregivers waiting for a medical magic wand to make them better.
In terms of geroscience, wouldn't it be better to look at the rates of change in lifespans for people who live to be at least 65 years old (or at least to 60 years old)? In that way, researchers can remove the negative effects on average lifespan that come from individuals who die prematurely--generally from non-age-related conditions? By doing that, wouldn't researchers be able to better measure any future intervention's impact on the aging process itself?
I suspect that is mostly due to obesity and type 2 diabetes. Most cancers have a greater 5 year survival rated today than ever. I many cases the difference is significant. Other than a few types, cancer rates are either steady or treading downward. Either way the prevalence is not changing much but treatment is much better. Inflammation related illnesses are up greatly but most of those are lifestyle related. Even dementia is as least partly a inflammatory illness. Keep in mind there are numerous types and causes of dementia though.
@@jozefwoo8079 COVID for maybe two years but before and after the COVID years it was more of the inflammatory diseases. Things like obesity, OSA, renal disease and every complication related to type 2 diabetes is killing more in the USA than anything else. Even the risk of death from COVID was much greater for the obese and diabetic.
Why is it not emphasized more in your discussion or the paper the huge disparity in life expectancy across the income distribution. When the claim is made that it would be 'very hard' to raise US life expectancy by just one year, you can just point to the fact that there is a 10 year life expectancy difference between the top and bottom earners.
I dont think we have maxed out the easy stuff at all. Yes theres sanitation and antibiotics. But who the heck is eating beans every day and avoiding meat ? Who is eating two pounds of fruit and veg every day ? We have a longevity intelligensia who are obsessed with animal products and exercise and hardly entertain the basics
Great point, our medical system have been making a lot of progress in keeping sick people alive. So, a better metric for longevity would be the increase of healthspan in the population over the last decade, with respect to the previous three or four decades.
What I find scary is how diseased the average person is.........diabetes is a ticking time bomb for a lot of people and who doesnt know how it cripples ones health. I have no idea what I ll succumb to further down the line but diabetes isn't one of them (I m referencing type two) Unless you re diet is super healthy and other health parameters are in place, forget about longevity or life extension.
I think 50 years ago the new Moonshot was curing cancer inside a decade. It didn't happen and we've put multiple moonshots into this. My feeling is that delaying ageing to any noticeable extent is a similarly futile endeavour. Even extending healthspan is limited I think it can't do much more than give us another 20y max, ok this is great, but you still get accelerated decrepitude in your 90's, no joke at all.
I wish you guys would talk about Ai's impact/potential impact in Aging space because if the current exponential trend continues by 2045 Ai will be smarter than all humans combined. Many Ai researchers are confident we will be able to understand biology, halt and eventually reverse aging using these technologies. It would be interesting to see Matt discuss this with an Ai researcher similar to what has been done on Lex Freidman's podcasts.
When matt says people just point to ai here is a further elaboration on how advanced AGI/ASI could solve the current gaps: Accelerated Data Analysis: Uncovering Hidden Patterns: ASI can analyze petabytes of complex biological data to identify previously undetectable patterns and relationships between genes, proteins, and metabolic pathways involved in aging. This could lead to the discovery of novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets that are critical for reversing aging processes. Integration of Multi-Omics Data: By simultaneously analyzing genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics data, ASI can construct a comprehensive picture of aging at the molecular level, revealing intervention points to reverse age-related changes. Advanced Biological Modeling: High-Resolution Simulations: ASI can create precise simulations of cellular and molecular interactions over time, modeling how interventions might reverse cellular senescence, telomere shortening, or mitochondrial dysfunction-key hallmarks of aging. Predictive Aging Models: By simulating the long-term effects of potential therapies, ASI can predict which interventions are most likely to succeed in reversing aging, thus prioritizing resources and accelerating the development of effective treatments. Personalized Anti-Aging Therapies: Customized Genetic Interventions: ASI can design personalized gene therapies that correct individual genetic predispositions to aging-related diseases, effectively reversing pathological aging processes at their source. Optimized Treatment Regimens: By analyzing an individual's unique biological data, ASI can tailor interventions-such as dosing schedules for rejuvenation therapies-that maximize efficacy and minimize adverse effects, enhancing the reversal of aging symptoms. Drug Discovery and Development: Rapid Identification of Geroprotectors: ASI can screen vast libraries of compounds to identify those with geroprotective properties, significantly speeding up the discovery of drugs that can reverse aging-related damage. Molecular Engineering: ASI can design new molecules with specific properties to target and reverse molecular damage associated with aging, such as cross-linked proteins or aggregated misfolded proteins. Gene Editing and Regenerative Medicine: Precision CRISPR Enhancements: ASI can improve the accuracy and efficiency of CRISPR gene-editing tools, enabling the correction of age-accumulated genetic errors in somatic cells, effectively rejuvenating tissues. Stem Cell Optimization: By refining protocols for stem cell differentiation and integration, ASI can enhance the body's natural regenerative capacities, replacing aged or damaged cells with healthy ones and reversing tissue degeneration. Holistic Health Monitoring: Dynamic Biological Age Assessment: ASI can continuously assess biological age versus chronological age, using real-time data to adjust interventions that promote reversal of biological aging markers. Proactive Intervention Strategies: By predicting the onset of age-related decline before symptoms appear, ASI enables early and more effective reversal strategies, potentially restoring youthful function. Ethical Decision-Making and Policy Development: Balancing Risks and Benefits: ASI can model the ethical implications of anti-aging interventions, helping to develop policies that maximize societal benefits while minimizing potential risks associated with life extension. Global Health Equity: By analyzing socioeconomic data, ASI can recommend strategies to ensure that aging reversal technologies are accessible worldwide, promoting global health equity. Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Synergizing Diverse Fields: ASI can bridge gaps between disciplines-linking insights from quantum computing, nanotechnology, and bioinformatics-to develop innovative approaches for reversing aging that no single field could achieve alone. Accelerated Knowledge Sharing: ASI can process and synthesize global research findings in real-time, keeping scientists updated and fostering collaborative efforts that expedite the development of aging reversal therapies. Education and Public Awareness: Democratizing Knowledge: ASI can generate educational content that makes complex aging research understandable to the public, garnering support for anti-aging initiatives and encouraging participation in healthy longevity practices. Informed Consent and Participation: By educating patients about potential therapies, ASI can facilitate informed decision-making, increasing the adoption of anti-aging interventions that reverse age-related decline. Resource Optimization: Strategic Investment: ASI can predict which research projects are most likely to yield breakthroughs in aging reversal, guiding funding agencies and investors toward high-impact opportunities. Efficient Clinical Trials: By identifying ideal candidate populations and predicting trial outcomes, ASI can streamline clinical trial processes for anti-aging therapies, reducing costs and time to market.
@@williamr9833 God in a box is a wonderful fantasy. I don't think it's realistic for two main reasons, there's no reason to think 'the current exponential trend' continues to 2045, and two, it fundamentally misunderstands what language models are and how they work.
@ yeah me the DOD the White House darpa all the congressional witnesses that have testified this year on AGI being 1-3 years away are wrong you’re the expert.
Talk of AI is comical at this stage. People conflate AI with AGI. Let's get things out of the way very fast - AGI is a concept, that is all. It does not exist in practice, and with current level of science/technology, will not exist for any foreseeable future. What we have at present is an equivalent of google search autocomplete on steroids, that's all. It is incapable of synthesizing new data, only processing extant data; you have a dataset, and you can manipulate data within, but cannot emerge new data from it. We are at the very dawn of AI, equivalent of stacking bricks to reach the sky, and you are talking about AGI, which is interplanetary rocket travel. There is a long way from stacking bricks to rocket travel. That's the distance between current AI and AGI. We need *completely* new science breakthroughs, not even on the horizon. Counting on AI to help with geroscience is fantasy.
@@DessicatedCadaver Several experts have testified before Congress predicting that AGI could become a reality within the next 1 to 10 years. Their insights suggest that advancements in AI are accelerating rapidly, and dismissing current AI as merely 'autocomplete on steroids' overlooks these significant developments. How do you reconcile the skepticism about AGI with the optimistic timelines provided by these industry leaders? Also, would love your thoughts on why Geoffery Hinton the godfather of ai believes it will make human intelligence obsolete?
We really need to step up the game when it comes to research on aging...and no just on worms, mice, etc. The US. is a lost cause because the "Murican" lifestyle is lethal.
I'm old, It is not fun. Are you going to make companion animals live longer? Fix cancer and bad knees? Poverty? I think I've seen this movie before, and it did not end well!
This study examined life expectancy at the population level. Many of us are interested in the potential for Radical Life Extension for individuals willing to make significant lifestyle changes, such as altering diet, exercise, and sleep habits, taking supplements, and adopting other practices to extend lifespan and healthspan. For example, C. elegans' average lifespan has remained unchanged for centuries, even though experiments have shown specific changes that can extend it by up to 50%. This raises the question: For those of us willing to make significant lifestyle changes, what are the chances of extending our lifespan and health span by decades?
Artificial intelligence needs to crack this code in humans. Worms and mice provide proof of concept, but humans are way more complex. I do think Matt is way too conservative, but he has to be for his reputation if he wants to stay in academia - and in fact he apparently got frustrated and recently founded a company, Optispan. Academia is just not innovation-focused.
Speculating on any percentage of the population reaching 150-years, shows how easy it is to be mis-led by extrapolating from current data trends. The absolute limit for human life expectancy is defined by the Hayflick limit of cell devision. That is 124/125 years max, without some “radical” interventions such as re-setting chromosome telomere length, to name only one.
Seems to be that the hard limit is 120years, especially if you believe Jeanne Calment's claim was fraudulent. What's interesting is that this is limit given in the book of Genesis. How could they have known this, all those thousands of years ago, pre antibiotics etc?
Really well done Matt. Spot on assessment.
Jay Olshansky
Matt K is one of the few people in healthspace I trust 100%. Never hypes anything. Says it as it is.
Thanks, this means a lot! - Tara
Please do an episode on the reasons the USA hasn’t kept up with the top 10 countries.
Love listening to this podcast before going to sleep. No bullshit, no sensationalism, no pandering. Just pure honest science.
On the subject of continuing incremental improvement in healthspan, I am a boomer (72) and an active personal trainer and I see a tepid at best (generally) commitment to improving in either the sick or healthy in the aging boomer population. LOTS of talk on how to get healthy but sadly very little consistent application...As attributed to Henry Ford:'If you think you can
...you can.If you think you can't, you can't.'We are really short a shift in societal mindset.I talk to younger friends in gerontology who are dealing with mind numbing levels of non compliance and effort in clients and caregivers waiting for a medical magic wand to make them better.
In terms of geroscience, wouldn't it be better to look at the rates of change in lifespans for people who live to be at least 65 years old (or at least to 60 years old)? In that way, researchers can remove the negative effects on average lifespan that come from individuals who die prematurely--generally from non-age-related conditions? By doing that, wouldn't researchers be able to better measure any future intervention's impact on the aging process itself?
6:33 : It's funny the cut the graph exactly at 2020 since life expectancy has gone down rather radically in most Western countries since 2021.
That's on purpose to exclude impact of covid
It's not funny, it's on purpose.
I suspect that is mostly due to obesity and type 2 diabetes. Most cancers have a greater 5 year survival rated today than ever. I many cases the difference is significant. Other than a few types, cancer rates are either steady or treading downward. Either way the prevalence is not changing much but treatment is much better.
Inflammation related illnesses are up greatly but most of those are lifestyle related. Even dementia is as least partly a inflammatory illness. Keep in mind there are numerous types and causes of dementia though.
@@bobbywise2313 it's because of covid my friend, they say it in the video
@@jozefwoo8079 COVID for maybe two years but before and after the COVID years it was more of the inflammatory diseases. Things like obesity, OSA, renal disease and every complication related to type 2 diabetes is killing more in the USA than anything else. Even the risk of death from COVID was much greater for the obese and diabetic.
Thanks for another great video with a difference
I’m not looking for radical life extension, when I go I wanna be mid 80’s on hike in the high mtns or the desert not in some chemo center or hospice.
Wait, 'radical life extension' is just nine more years? Sweet, now I might actually pay off my student loans! 😂
Why is it not emphasized more in your discussion or the paper the huge disparity in life expectancy across the income distribution. When the claim is made that it would be 'very hard' to raise US life expectancy by just one year, you can just point to the fact that there is a 10 year life expectancy difference between the top and bottom earners.
I dont think we have maxed out the easy stuff at all. Yes theres sanitation and antibiotics. But who the heck is eating beans every day and avoiding meat ? Who is eating two pounds of fruit and veg every day ? We have a longevity intelligensia who are obsessed with animal products and exercise and hardly entertain the basics
Great point, our medical system have been making a lot of progress in keeping sick people alive. So, a better metric for longevity would be the increase of healthspan in the population over the last decade, with respect to the previous three or four decades.
What I find scary is how diseased the average person is.........diabetes is a ticking time bomb for a lot of people and who doesnt know how it cripples ones health. I have no idea what I ll succumb to further down the line but diabetes isn't one of them (I m referencing type two) Unless you re diet is super healthy and other health parameters are in place, forget about longevity or life extension.
The bottom line, invest into:
- social network
- personal health
- anti aging biology
I think 50 years ago the new Moonshot was curing cancer inside a decade. It didn't happen and we've put multiple moonshots into this. My feeling is that delaying ageing to any noticeable extent is a similarly futile endeavour. Even extending healthspan is limited I think it can't do much more than give us another 20y max, ok this is great, but you still get accelerated decrepitude in your 90's, no joke at all.
I wish you guys would talk about Ai's impact/potential impact in Aging space because if the current exponential trend continues by 2045 Ai will be smarter than all humans combined. Many Ai researchers are confident we will be able to understand biology, halt and eventually reverse aging using these technologies. It would be interesting to see Matt discuss this with an Ai researcher similar to what has been done on Lex Freidman's podcasts.
When matt says people just point to ai here is a further elaboration on how advanced AGI/ASI could solve the current gaps:
Accelerated Data Analysis:
Uncovering Hidden Patterns: ASI can analyze petabytes of complex biological data to identify previously undetectable patterns and relationships between genes, proteins, and metabolic pathways involved in aging. This could lead to the discovery of novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets that are critical for reversing aging processes.
Integration of Multi-Omics Data: By simultaneously analyzing genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics data, ASI can construct a comprehensive picture of aging at the molecular level, revealing intervention points to reverse age-related changes.
Advanced Biological Modeling:
High-Resolution Simulations:
ASI can create precise simulations of cellular and molecular interactions over time, modeling how interventions might reverse cellular senescence, telomere shortening, or mitochondrial dysfunction-key hallmarks of aging.
Predictive Aging Models: By simulating the long-term effects of potential therapies, ASI can predict which interventions are most likely to succeed in reversing aging, thus prioritizing resources and accelerating the development of effective treatments.
Personalized Anti-Aging Therapies:
Customized Genetic Interventions: ASI can design personalized gene therapies that correct individual genetic predispositions to aging-related diseases, effectively reversing pathological aging processes at their source.
Optimized Treatment Regimens: By analyzing an individual's unique biological data, ASI can tailor interventions-such as dosing schedules for rejuvenation therapies-that maximize efficacy and minimize adverse effects, enhancing the reversal of aging symptoms.
Drug Discovery and Development:
Rapid Identification of Geroprotectors: ASI can screen vast libraries of compounds to identify those with geroprotective properties, significantly speeding up the discovery of drugs that can reverse aging-related damage.
Molecular Engineering: ASI can design new molecules with specific properties to target and reverse molecular damage associated with aging, such as cross-linked proteins or aggregated misfolded proteins.
Gene Editing and Regenerative Medicine:
Precision CRISPR Enhancements: ASI can improve the accuracy and efficiency of CRISPR gene-editing tools, enabling the correction of age-accumulated genetic errors in somatic cells, effectively rejuvenating tissues.
Stem Cell Optimization: By refining protocols for stem cell differentiation and integration, ASI can enhance the body's natural regenerative capacities, replacing aged or damaged cells with healthy ones and reversing tissue degeneration.
Holistic Health Monitoring:
Dynamic Biological Age Assessment: ASI can continuously assess biological age versus chronological age, using real-time data to adjust interventions that promote reversal of biological aging markers.
Proactive Intervention Strategies: By predicting the onset of age-related decline before symptoms appear, ASI enables early and more effective reversal strategies, potentially restoring youthful function.
Ethical Decision-Making and Policy Development:
Balancing Risks and Benefits: ASI can model the ethical implications of anti-aging interventions, helping to develop policies that maximize societal benefits while minimizing potential risks associated with life extension.
Global Health Equity: By analyzing socioeconomic data, ASI can recommend strategies to ensure that aging reversal technologies are accessible worldwide, promoting global health equity.
Interdisciplinary Collaboration:
Synergizing Diverse Fields: ASI can bridge gaps between disciplines-linking insights from quantum computing, nanotechnology, and bioinformatics-to develop innovative approaches for reversing aging that no single field could achieve alone.
Accelerated Knowledge Sharing: ASI can process and synthesize global research findings in real-time, keeping scientists updated and fostering collaborative efforts that expedite the development of aging reversal therapies.
Education and Public Awareness:
Democratizing Knowledge: ASI can generate educational content that makes complex aging research understandable to the public, garnering support for anti-aging initiatives and encouraging participation in healthy longevity practices.
Informed Consent and Participation: By educating patients about potential therapies, ASI can facilitate informed decision-making, increasing the adoption of anti-aging interventions that reverse age-related decline.
Resource Optimization:
Strategic Investment: ASI can predict which research projects are most likely to yield breakthroughs in aging reversal, guiding funding agencies and investors toward high-impact opportunities.
Efficient Clinical Trials: By identifying ideal candidate populations and predicting trial outcomes, ASI can streamline clinical trial processes for anti-aging therapies, reducing costs and time to market.
@@williamr9833 God in a box is a wonderful fantasy. I don't think it's realistic for two main reasons, there's no reason to think 'the current exponential trend' continues to 2045, and two, it fundamentally misunderstands what language models are and how they work.
@ yeah me the DOD the White House darpa all the congressional witnesses that have testified this year on AGI being 1-3 years away are wrong you’re the expert.
Talk of AI is comical at this stage. People conflate AI with AGI. Let's get things out of the way very fast - AGI is a concept, that is all. It does not exist in practice, and with current level of science/technology, will not exist for any foreseeable future. What we have at present is an equivalent of google search autocomplete on steroids, that's all. It is incapable of synthesizing new data, only processing extant data; you have a dataset, and you can manipulate data within, but cannot emerge new data from it. We are at the very dawn of AI, equivalent of stacking bricks to reach the sky, and you are talking about AGI, which is interplanetary rocket travel. There is a long way from stacking bricks to rocket travel. That's the distance between current AI and AGI. We need *completely* new science breakthroughs, not even on the horizon. Counting on AI to help with geroscience is fantasy.
@@DessicatedCadaver Several experts have testified before Congress predicting that AGI could become a reality within the next 1 to 10 years. Their insights suggest that advancements in AI are accelerating rapidly, and dismissing current AI as merely 'autocomplete on steroids' overlooks these significant developments. How do you reconcile the skepticism about AGI with the optimistic timelines provided by these industry leaders? Also, would love your thoughts on why Geoffery Hinton the godfather of ai believes it will make human intelligence obsolete?
We really need to step up the game when it comes to research on aging...and no just on worms, mice, etc. The US. is a lost cause because the "Murican" lifestyle is lethal.
I'm old, It is not fun. Are you going to make companion animals live longer? Fix cancer and bad knees? Poverty? I think I've seen this movie before, and it did not end well!
The idea would be to slow aging rather than just make the old live longer. I agree if the quality of life sucks then why bother.
What if we press dragonglass into our chests and turn into White Walkers? We could live for a chillingly long time then.
This study examined life expectancy at the population level. Many of us are interested in the potential for Radical Life Extension for individuals willing to make significant lifestyle changes, such as altering diet, exercise, and sleep habits, taking supplements, and adopting other practices to extend lifespan and healthspan.
For example, C. elegans' average lifespan has remained unchanged for centuries, even though experiments have shown specific changes that can extend it by up to 50%. This raises the question: For those of us willing to make significant lifestyle changes, what are the chances of extending our lifespan and health span by decades?
Artificial intelligence needs to crack this code in humans. Worms and mice provide proof of concept, but humans are way more complex. I do think Matt is way too conservative, but he has to be for his reputation if he wants to stay in academia - and in fact he apparently got frustrated and recently founded a company, Optispan. Academia is just not innovation-focused.
Speculating on any percentage of the population reaching 150-years, shows how easy it is to be mis-led by extrapolating from current data trends. The absolute limit for human life expectancy is defined by the Hayflick limit of cell devision. That is 124/125 years max, without some “radical” interventions such as re-setting chromosome telomere length, to name only one.
Seems to be that the hard limit is 120years, especially if you believe Jeanne Calment's claim was fraudulent. What's interesting is that this is limit given in the book of Genesis. How could they have known this, all those thousands of years ago, pre antibiotics etc?