This is a friendly reminder that it is supposed to be quiet in the tropics this time of year. Now is a great time to make sure you're prepared as we head into peak season over the next couple of months. Hope everyone is doing well! - Jonathan
2004 was a slow start and then 4 major hurricanes hit Florida from about mid August through late September. We never take the "quiet" time as a predictor of the rest of the season. Thanks for telling it like it is, Jonathan.
Great video Jonathan, seeing the same signals you are. And I'm just as emotionally charged as you are haha in terms of the things floating around on the socials... big season on its way in and the signs are there.
Heya Jonathan - always, always, always so great to see u. Thank u for maybe quieting down the peeps who aren't familiar w/ the Hurricane Seasons and think 2024 is going to be quiet now. I pray they are right but I'm an anxious realist 😳. I hope u have an enjoyable w/e. 🙏🏻❤😍🤗🙏🏻
Well, here we are on August 26 when the graph indicates we should really be ramping up to the peak in 15 days. We're only at 5 named storms. Perhaps an update is in order?
Funny, you should say that ... I'm heading home to Toronto in September, which could swing both ways ... who's complaining ... true, we are getting a break in Bim, though most days sharp, heavy showers ... the dust is back big time. .... we're all listening ... appreciate my friend. Thanks!😊
Jonathan, we are like a week from September, no development over the next week expected. Do you think September is gonna have like 10? Or maybe just 1 or 2? If it’s only 1 or 2, then it’s gonna be a very very light season. Idk, it just seems to be coming up nil. Thoughts?
I am watching from St. Kitts and Nevis. The steering patterns of this season seem to have hurricanes moving westward from Africa and this may potentially affect the leeward islands in the future. Is there any truth to this prediction?
Wow! Call this hurricane season a bust to the people that Beryl passed over. July is usually the calm before the storm, no pun intended. August thru October is the peak of hurricane season. It's just getting started.
The science always wins in the end. Naysayers (those who say this season is "a bust") will be eating their words. Great video, very informative as always.
Jonathan knows - take this info to heart and be prepared. With all the climatological anomalies occurring on an increasing basis, the word that keeps popping up seems to be 'unprecedented'. I lived through the 2004 season in Orlando with three major storms - Charley, Francis and Jeanne. It was unusual for any storm to hit inland Central Florida at that time. The next year was jaw-dropping! Living now in Salt Springs, FL and taking advantage of the lull to psyche up, and dress down, for all possibilities! Be safe everyone!
I Hope/🙏🙏🙏🙏&Pray that the Most-High is in control now. Im tired of all this evil in the 🌍🌎 #World#Amen. #YesISayInTheNameOfJesusChristAmen. ❤❤😊😊😮😮, we need water 💦💦/Rain, less tornadoes and violent storms, but idk, all we can do is ask the right way ❤️❤️, #ThroughJesusChristAmen. ❤❤😊😊.
I can care less about yearly predictions because I live in a hurricane hot zone, south Louisiana, so we stay ready. I check the NHC daily and watch your videos to stay informed so just let me know where they are goin and when they will arrive. Thanks.
Hi Jonathan, question: the sea surface temperature pattern in the eastern pacific that takes on a kind of wave-like formation indicating a developing La Niña appears to also be present in the south eastern Atlantic just below Dakar. Is this a symptom of a Pacific La Niña or a just more static consistent pattern given the trades?
Not related…however same kind of mechanism. Strong trades pushing warmer water away and allowing for upwelling. It’s also helping to eject the dust out over that area which is helping to reflect some sunlight limiting the solar heating. - Jonathan
All yall from south Louisiana like me know all too well that the season gets bad in August-September time. These T-storms in recent weeks are just a taste
The military need to go to the Sahara desert and get this dust particles in the air during the hurricane season. This is a natural way to reduce hurricane activity in the region.
Not a slow start! Typically July and August are slow hurricane months…. September and October are the most active and destructive months for hurricanes !🌀
It’s August 16th 2024 today. Long range forecast says no formation expected for 7 days. Ernesto is spinning without any intention of hitting land (and therefore in my opinion should not even count). I am happy to see your video explanation, but, while the prediction of tracking of where storms will go and how strong they will get amazes me, I don’t believe science has any idea whatsoever how to predict a season of hurricanes or what causes a season to go bust.
Not sure what you mean but Bermuda is going to take a direct hit from a cat 2 hurricane. And this caused flooding and left 700,000 people without power in Puerto Rico. So this absolutely should count. The season isn’t close to being over. 85% of the season happens this date. The last few days of August. Regardless of if this storm hit something (and it did and will) the seasonal forecast predict the number of storms regardless. Science also gives us clues, but there’s a lot more to understand. - Jonathan
On a scale of 1 to 10, currently, with 10 being excellent predictor, and 1 being lousy predictor: How good are you at predicting how deadly/strong/active a given hurricane season will be? Go. (I think you and everyone else is a 1 - no idea).
Active I will give it a 6 Strong or intense I would give a 5 Deadly is hard because I would say we can have a general idea…we talked about Texas and Florida and the Caribbean being hot spots for this year prior to the season starting. It’s hard to talk deadly because it’s impossible months out to know what community will be indicated and if they have the means to evacuate and the infrastructure is like. There are plenty of signals to suggest how bad a season could be. As you said though there are unforeseen factors than can tame or accelerate a season.
Same argument every year. Prediction comes out. Beginning of the season is "slow" like normal, usually because of saharan dust and wind shear, everyone ignores that info, claims the prediction was made to scare people and sell generators. Happens every year.
It is not fudged by NOAA. I use the real ones as well and I can assure that shows they are that much above normal. You can easily check that yourself and you will see you’re being fed conspiracy lies. - Jonathan
@@just_weather Just want to let you know that I followed you super closely through Idalia. You were spot on and helped me a lot through that storm. It was an emotional track to watch from Citrus county, FL. We got lucky here. Just want to thank you.
My method of predicting tropical activity has proven more accurate than Colorado State’s outlook. I simply take the number of storms they predict and divide by three!
OK first I am looking at the Gulf of Mexico and we could most definitely see a big storm going into the area between Biloxi and Jones Beach. Personally I am betting on both locations and a bit of a whopper of a storm there in both cases. I am looking at the Sea Surface Temperatures. Next I am also looking to the East and the heat is DYING OUT. It is Now very cold for hurricanes off the west coast of Africa and the central Atlantic is dead! This is decreasing by the day the energy for the whole season. But this season is clearly a bust as far as the awful NOAA NHC forecasts! It also is doomsday for the "Global Warming/Climate Change" liars going on. But like I said I see 2 big storms in the Gulf of Mexico and frankly I see a warm up in the western Atlantic for a pretty good Caribbean storm as well. But on the whole NHC has goofed up big time.
I can't trust the seasonal projections. 2005 was way more active!!!!! July. August. I give up on this season and I can't trust the projections. 2022 was busted, so why can't 2024 bust.
usually july is quieter then june. as i seen several tropical storms in june and beryl was the 1st time i seen such a huge hurricane in july, tho it was at the start, so far currently we are on cue. i love telling people the atlantic loves to make most of its storms all aka 90% of its storms at once during the 3 month peak of aug through oct, other basins do it over 6 month periods.
@@just_weather hey feel free to make a video on the other basins and how there seasons are structured and peaks, feel free to talk about my discovers or what it seems like how the atlantic does 90% in a 3 month period while other basins do it over a 6 month period. id love to see a video on the subject in a deeper sense
NO MODELS SHOW TC's 16 DAYS FROM NOW!!!!!!! SO QUIET FOR THE NEXT 16 DAYS!!!!! SEASON'S DONE. IT'S OVER. GET READY FOR A HISTORICAL BUST. I'M DONE WITH ATLANTIC STORMS. THEY KILL ME BY NOT HAPPENING
This is amusing. At the beginning of the season, the public was shown one disastrous chart after another of the hurricanes headed our way. It was going to be a record setting hurricane season. It got the natives across the country worked up to have their house blown away. What a great disappointment and fear over hype. This is why people don't listen when a real storm is headed our way. You people do the public a great disservice.
Not sure what you are talking about. I guess you didn’t watch the video that all of that is still expected unfortunately. The season has already overachieved with beryl breaking records. - Jonathan
Let's be honest meteorologist suck at predictions that's the reason they all repeat what the national hurricane center say. No need to go to school for 8 years to do that😂
Good question! All about the steering currents. The water is the fuel but the upper level winds steer strong storms and the lower level winds steer weaker storms. - Jonathan
This is a friendly reminder that it is supposed to be quiet in the tropics this time of year. Now is a great time to make sure you're prepared as we head into peak season over the next couple of months. Hope everyone is doing well! - Jonathan
Hurricane Beryl will like to have a word with you!! This season is no bust for Houston.
Also a reminder that politics should stay out!! Not about anyone but right off the bat an advertisement for Kamala?? Whoa
2004 was a slow start and then 4 major hurricanes hit Florida from about mid August through late September. We never take the "quiet" time as a predictor of the rest of the season. Thanks for telling it like it is, Jonathan.
Hit the nail on the head with this comment! - Jonathan
Beryl was insane.
Great video Jonathan, seeing the same signals you are. And I'm just as emotionally charged as you are haha in terms of the things floating around on the socials... big season on its way in and the signs are there.
Couldn’t agree more. Thanks a lot my friend! - Jonathan
This season is definitely not a bust, we got hit by Beryl in Houston this early in the season.
The 24 hurricanes they predicted may be a bust, not the singular hurricane that affected you
This is what you call the Calm before the storm the more time that goes by the worst of the Hurricanes would be
No question about that! Great point! - Jonathan
And yet, Beryl may be the only hurricane we see all year.
I think ones the dust and windsheer is gone they will explode with storms
Watching from Louisiana, trust in your knowledge for weather.❤❤❤
Appreciate you!! - Jonathan
I'm learning a bit more with each video, but at this point a lot of it is still going over my head. Thank you very much. Have a good weekend.
Glad you are learning something! Happy to answer anymore questions you may have! - Jonathan
Thank you very much Jonathan me and my family are prepared the tropics will pick back up quickly later in the season like the last few years
Very very good explanation on why it is not good we are not having weak storms now. Thank you.
Hello from Philadelphia PA. Thank you
Heya Jonathan - always, always, always so great to see u. Thank u for maybe quieting down the peeps who aren't familiar w/ the Hurricane Seasons and think 2024 is going to be quiet now. I pray they are right but I'm an anxious realist 😳. I hope u have an enjoyable w/e. 🙏🏻❤😍🤗🙏🏻
Hope you do as well! Great to see you! - Jonathan
Thanks again, Jonathan. Don’t let your guard down my friends. I’m here in Maitland, FL.
Watching from south Louisiana. Many thanks for the update.
You’re very welcome! - Jonathan
Well, here we are on August 26 when the graph indicates we should really be ramping up to the peak in 15 days.
We're only at 5 named storms. Perhaps an update is in order?
Funny, you should say that ... I'm heading home to Toronto in September, which could swing both ways ... who's complaining ... true, we are getting a break in Bim, though most days sharp, heavy showers ... the dust is back big time. .... we're all listening ... appreciate my friend. Thanks!😊
Thanks for the update also it seems like another active period in the Atlantic is underway
You’re very welcome! I think you’re right. August looks rough…especially after the first week. - Jonathan
Jonathan, we are like a week from September, no development over the next week expected. Do you think September is gonna have like 10? Or maybe just 1 or 2? If it’s only 1 or 2, then it’s gonna be a very very light season. Idk, it just seems to be coming up nil. Thoughts?
Thanks Jonathan! Nashville here!
Hey! Good to see you! - Jonathan
Thanks much for the info,making a note of the time,second week of August,when the switch will flick on,we should try to stay prepared....
Warm welcome from Island Barbados thank amazing forcast
Very well explained, thank you so much!
Hurricane season just started. It really peak in Late Aug - Early November. Are they any update on winter or fall weather for 2024
Correct! So many people don’t realize that 80% of the activity occurs after August 1. - Jonathan
I am watching from St. Kitts and Nevis. The steering patterns of this season seem to have hurricanes moving westward from Africa and this may potentially affect the leeward islands in the future. Is there any truth to this prediction?
Watching from Picayune Mississippi, enjoy your forecast all the time. Great job by all.
Hello! Have a great weekend! - Jonathan
Great info, appreciate your insight Jonathan. Hoping for the best & preparing for the worse this hurricane season.
Agree! Thank you for watching! - Jonathan
Calm before the storms.
Yeah 😟
I don’t think anyone thinks that. It’s not even halfway through and any seasoned FL resident knows it doesn’t turn up until August/September.
Wow! Call this hurricane season a bust to the people that Beryl passed over. July is usually the calm before the storm, no pun intended. August thru October is the peak of hurricane season. It's just getting started.
Watching from Saint Augustine Florida 🙌🏻
2024 has been a year where everything is off to a slow start but the ending is brutal. Tornado season for example
The science always wins in the end. Naysayers (those who say this season is "a bust") will be eating their words. Great video, very informative as always.
Absolutely! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Jonathan knows - take this info to heart and be prepared. With all the climatological anomalies occurring on an increasing basis, the word that keeps popping up seems to be 'unprecedented'. I lived through the 2004 season in Orlando with three major storms - Charley, Francis and Jeanne. It was unusual for any storm to hit inland Central Florida at that time. The next year was jaw-dropping! Living now in Salt Springs, FL and taking advantage of the lull to psyche up, and dress down, for all possibilities!
Be safe everyone!
Can’t even imagine! Great to see you! You should watch News 6 if you don’t already do so! - Jonathan
Tampa FL watching. Thanks! 😊
It busted in the face of hype sellers of hot air.
What? - Jonathan
Great video, learn a lot!! Take care, love from Puerto Rico! D.🇵🇷👋🌀🫶
I Hope/🙏🙏🙏🙏&Pray that the Most-High is in control now. Im tired of all this evil in the 🌍🌎 #World#Amen. #YesISayInTheNameOfJesusChristAmen. ❤❤😊😊😮😮, we need water 💦💦/Rain, less tornadoes and violent storms, but idk, all we can do is ask the right way ❤️❤️, #ThroughJesusChristAmen. ❤❤😊😊.
I can care less about yearly predictions because I live in a hurricane hot zone, south Louisiana, so we stay ready. I check the NHC daily and watch your videos to stay informed so just let me know where they are goin and when they will arrive. Thanks.
Appreciate that! - Jonathan
Just don’t be mean towards Florida and we’re all good 🙏🏽💕
Still tuning in from Dunnellon, FL.
Hello again! - Jonathan
What’s up! Love from Pembroke Pines Florida
Hey! Hope you are well! - Jonathan
Watching from Tucson, Arizona
Hi Jonathan, question: the sea surface temperature pattern in the eastern pacific that takes on a kind of wave-like formation indicating a developing La Niña appears to also be present in the south eastern Atlantic just below Dakar. Is this a symptom of a Pacific La Niña or a just more static consistent pattern given the trades?
Not related…however same kind of mechanism. Strong trades pushing warmer water away and allowing for upwelling. It’s also helping to eject the dust out over that area which is helping to reflect some sunlight limiting the solar heating. - Jonathan
watching from Aventura, FL (Miami-Dade). The dust cloud is here now (:
Gonna get even thicker this weekend! - Jonathan
@@just_weather not looking forward to it (:
Please don’t complain that the season is quieting down, I live in Houston.
Great insight! From St. Croix USVI
"where are the storms? R U nuts, do not ask for storms, they can show up."
That’s what people are saying! I know! - Jonathan
I've been thinking this is going to be a repeat of 2005 and it's weird how other people been saying the same thing
Bro I live near we’re Ian hit almost 2 years ago, we don’t want another hurricane in southwest Florida
Heck no! - Jonathan
I have 2 major hurricanes to hit the South Carolina region around Sept. 1st.
The calm before the storm 😌 😢
All yall from south Louisiana like me know all too well that the season gets bad in August-September time. These T-storms in recent weeks are just a taste
Well, thunderstorms this time of year are always common regardless of how active hurricane season is predicted to be
New Orleans watching
Hello! - Jonathan
The hurricane season is not a bust the tropics are about to explode here the next week or two
Amen🙂😇 but I don't think we're going to be that lucky when the hurricane start forming they're going to be huge.
The military need to go to the Sahara desert and get this dust particles in the air during the hurricane season. This is a natural way to reduce hurricane activity in the region.
Watching from Charleston SC
Welcome! - Jonathan
Watching fom Sarasota, Fl
Excuse me, but going to the hospital for a temp higher than 101 is ridiculous.
What is meant by Saharan dust?
Thank you for the información ❤
My prediction
18 storms
11 hurricanes
7 majors
It only takes 1 destructive hurricane to change a season's narrative, such as Allen in 1980 and Andrew in 1992.
Not a slow start! Typically July and August are slow hurricane months…. September and October are the most active and destructive months for hurricanes !🌀
extreme South Georgia on Florida line!
we havent even really got into the season yet.. aug and sep are usually when they ramp up
It’s August 16th 2024 today. Long range forecast says no formation expected for 7 days. Ernesto is spinning without any intention of hitting land (and therefore in my opinion should not even count). I am happy to see your video explanation, but, while the prediction of tracking of where storms will go and how strong they will get amazes me, I don’t believe science has any idea whatsoever how to predict a season of hurricanes or what causes a season to go bust.
Not sure what you mean but Bermuda is going to take a direct hit from a cat 2 hurricane. And this caused flooding and left 700,000 people without power in Puerto Rico. So this absolutely should count. The season isn’t close to being over. 85% of the season happens this date. The last few days of August. Regardless of if this storm hit something (and it did and will) the seasonal forecast predict the number of storms regardless. Science also gives us clues, but there’s a lot more to understand. - Jonathan
On a scale of 1 to 10, currently, with 10 being excellent predictor, and 1 being lousy predictor: How good are you at predicting how deadly/strong/active a given hurricane season will be? Go. (I think you and everyone else is a 1 - no idea).
Active I will give it a 6
Strong or intense I would give a 5
Deadly is hard because I would say we can have a general idea…we talked about Texas and Florida and the Caribbean being hot spots for this year prior to the season starting. It’s hard to talk deadly because it’s impossible months out to know what community will be indicated and if they have the means to evacuate and the infrastructure is like. There are plenty of signals to suggest how bad a season could be. As you said though there are unforeseen factors than can tame or accelerate a season.
Be careful what you wish for........
It's July. They will show up soon.
Same argument every year. Prediction comes out. Beginning of the season is "slow" like normal, usually because of saharan dust and wind shear, everyone ignores that info, claims the prediction was made to scare people and sell generators. Happens every year.
Pretty much spot on here! - Jonathan
To quiet. Hmm big issue 😢
San pedro, Belize 🇧🇿
People shouldn't taunt the ocean because she'll make it up to them come October.
Just up the road from you Jonathan in Orange Park
That’s awesome! - Jonathan
debby got yo ahh
Stop looking at the Anomaly map. That is fudged by NOAA. You need to get back to the real SST maps.
It is not fudged by NOAA. I use the real ones as well and I can assure that shows they are that much above normal. You can easily check that yourself and you will see you’re being fed conspiracy lies. - Jonathan
These people obviously know Nothing They are talking about! July is a calm month!
Like seriously? Come on people. Just thank god
Give it about 3 weeks and the next Katrina will be knocking on the door
Carbon neutrality is a bust.
People who say that have never been through hurricane season :0/
You’re exactly right. - Jonathan
@@just_weather Just want to let you know that I followed you super closely through Idalia. You were spot on and helped me a lot through that storm. It was an emotional track to watch from Citrus county, FL. We got lucky here. Just want to thank you.
It’s not August yet. Or September. Or October. We’ll see…. We had Zeta here in late October.
Preach! - Jonathan
Last moth before huracane season they said going to be busy earlier and now is diferent .. do day by day stop guessing..
And it was? Cat 5 hurricane beryl? We are way ahead of schedule and in a typical quiet period. - Jonathan
Did you already forget about the category 5 Beryl?
My method of predicting tropical activity has proven more accurate than Colorado State’s outlook. I simply take the number of storms they predict and divide by three!
Then you would be way off! Cause last year they predicted below what actually happened. Good try, though! - Jonathan
OK first I am looking at the Gulf of Mexico and we could most definitely see a big storm going into the area between Biloxi and Jones Beach. Personally I am betting on both locations and a bit of a whopper of a storm there in both cases. I am looking at the Sea Surface Temperatures. Next I am also looking to the East and the heat is DYING OUT. It is Now very cold for hurricanes off the west coast of Africa and the central Atlantic is dead! This is decreasing by the day the energy for the whole season. But this season is clearly a bust as far as the awful NOAA NHC forecasts! It also is doomsday for the "Global Warming/Climate Change" liars going on. But like I said I see 2 big storms in the Gulf of Mexico and frankly I see a warm up in the western Atlantic for a pretty good Caribbean storm as well. But on the whole NHC has goofed up big time.
Obviously you have something against NOAA. Talk to me come November. - Jonathan
I can't trust the seasonal projections. 2005 was way more active!!!!! July. August. I give up on this season and I can't trust the projections. 2022 was busted, so why can't 2024 bust.
You give up on this season that hasn't even started? 2005 isn't exactly what I would judge other seasons by....did you even watch this video?
No it’s not a bust it’s july
usually july is quieter then june. as i seen several tropical storms in june and beryl was the 1st time i seen such a huge hurricane in july, tho it was at the start, so far currently we are on cue.
i love telling people the atlantic loves to make most of its storms all aka 90% of its storms at once during the 3 month peak of aug through oct, other basins do it over 6 month periods.
Absolutely right! - Jonathan
@@just_weather hey feel free to make a video on the other basins and how there seasons are structured and peaks, feel free to talk about my discovers or what it seems like how the atlantic does 90% in a 3 month period while other basins do it over a 6 month period. id love to see a video on the subject in a deeper sense
What makes you think I have 40+ minutes to listen to a podcast? Your videos used to be like 10 minutes. WTH?
This video was 10 minutes? - Jonathan
I... this guy's a bot for sure...
Shhhhhh...
NO MODELS SHOW TC's 16 DAYS FROM NOW!!!!!!! SO QUIET FOR THE NEXT 16 DAYS!!!!! SEASON'S DONE. IT'S OVER. GET READY FOR A HISTORICAL BUST. I'M DONE WITH ATLANTIC STORMS. THEY KILL ME BY NOT HAPPENING
You’re trolling. Can’t rely on models like that. Have to look at the pattern. - Jonathan
They kill you by not happening?
Are you ok?
Maybe it is maybe it isn’t. It’s all about creating fear for more TH-cam views
Nope. Not at all. Please troll elsewhere. - Jonathan
This is amusing. At the beginning of the season, the public was shown one disastrous chart after another of the hurricanes headed our way. It was going to be a record setting hurricane season. It got the natives across the country worked up to have their house blown away. What a great disappointment and fear over hype. This is why people don't listen when a real storm is headed our way. You people do the public a great disservice.
Not sure what you are talking about. I guess you didn’t watch the video that all of that is still expected unfortunately. The season has already overachieved with beryl breaking records. - Jonathan
Let's be honest meteorologist suck at predictions that's the reason they all repeat what the national hurricane center say. No need to go to school for 8 years to do that😂
Ummmm not accurate. And it’s 4 years. Troll elsewhere. - Jonathan
Do hurricanes follow warm water like a magnet, or are they completely wind directed by jet streams, ocean winds or circulation power of the storm?
Good question! All about the steering currents. The water is the fuel but the upper level winds steer strong storms and the lower level winds steer weaker storms. - Jonathan
Don’t have hurricane for a week it means the season is over right…..1d10t$