Bill Hwang arrested on fraud charges!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ก.ค. 2024
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Bill Hwang, founder of Archegos Capital Management, has been arrested by US authorities and charged with racketeering, fraud and market manipulation.
The indictment accuses Hwang and former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan, of using Archegos as an “instrument of market manipulation and fraud” with “far-reaching consequences for other participants in the United States securities markets”.
The case marks the first criminal charges against Hwang, one of the so-called Tiger Cub veterans of Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management fund whose little-known investment vehicle rattled some of Wall Street’s biggest financial institutions when it imploded a year ago.
Archegos’s collapse caused billions of dollars of losses for investment banks including Credit Suisse, UBS, Nomura and Morgan Stanley after it defaulted on margin calls, with more than $100bn wiped from the valuations of nearly a dozen companies as Archegos’s positions were unwound.
The group used borrowed money from banks such as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse to amass multibillion-dollar positions in US-listed companies such as ViacomCBS - now known as Paramount - and online retailers Shopify and Farfetch. By using derivatives known as Total Return Swaps, where the bank it traded with bought or sold stocks on Archegos’s behalf, the firm left no visible footprint of its activity to the investing public.
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Did that about a month ago and I really love my daily upside emails.
No one seem to pronounce it correctly..Let's break it down..Arch Egos..
Bill Hwang's actions might make sense if we assume that he had collaborators. If he was part of a group of people who all traded stocks of the same companies, he might have "sacrificed" himself for the other group members by funnelling money from the banks he took loand from into their pockets, before the inevitable implosion of his scheme.
I have no indication that this might actually be the case - it was just a thought I had.
Been reading The Daily Upside for months, highly recommended.
So, what are the pros and cons of getting a $20 pasta machine vs a $70 pasta machine?
Deceiving counterparties to get even more leverage? Classic Bill.
I immediately thought of you when I saw the title. GUH
The holy spirit told him it was ok
@@normann8179 same!!!!
Losing professionally as always
Ballin' like Bill
@@DataLog we'll see if he's Bailin' now
Referring to a certain Swiss bank as "Debit Suisse" - that's wonderful!
It wouldn't be a scandal without Debit Suisse!
IDK, USOI has been great for me.
“They ran out of pasta machines… so huge losses it was.” Such high quality delivery
I used to work in PB at Credit Suisse. It is not surprising how incompetent the desk and risk management was in this case. The entire business was run off of a single Microsoft Access file on a shared drive and xl macros that failed half the time. Asset prices from the internal system were often wrong and so we always had to doubt them. Management was unwilling to invest money to improve the technology. It was a poorly run business.
The more experience I get, the more demystified these giant corporations seem to become. They eventually prove themselves to be benefactors of connections and exceedingly large amounts of capital than operational efficiency.
Likely an extremely widespread phenomena. Firms like this have been ripping as much cash out as possible for decades. All the cash goes out to execs who walk once the tide turns.
Wow that’s almost unbelievable. I’m an information management student and data integrity and security is constantly drilled into us. The firms I’ve interacted usually use SAP enterprise software.
Wow
I know where you are coming from. Stupidly, I actually went and got "specialist"-level certifications using Microsoft applications before going to work for a monster international banking house. I wanted to be able set up templates, write macros, use VBA and really "add value" in my new job. I discovered -- and had to repeatedly learn -- that co-workers and management had no desire to learn how to use MS Office and Access (and other database applications they had available) correctly. They could use about five percent of their apps and thought themselves experts. Since I was merely an employee (not a highly paid consultant), they cared not to listen and just continued stumbling through their work, whether using a worksheet, preparing a presentation, or writing something in Word. Macros? Templates? VBA? Why bother with those? They decided that Microsoft didn't know what it was doing when they got stuck or that some things were better done by hand (over and over and over again). Discovered that this is a universal truth in my earlier military work overseas. For example, I was assured, one time, that the Italians were compiling data using Excel worksheets. One afternoon, I wandered over to the Italian building and saw bottles of White Out being used to correct and retype into worksheet "cells" sums that were done on hand-held calculators (errors originally being made by the French); only then, would copies be distributed to the Germans, Dutch, and everyone else. They did look like computer-printed worksheets. I tried to explain to the U.S. side what was being done. "Shhhh... we don't want to offend anyone." Sighhh.... Also discovered much the same thing while working for two very large, very well-known Japanese companies, too. Kaizen? Really? The world is mired in mediocrity and poor management.
I think he just wanted to buy low, manipulate, sell and get out. The problem is that he got stuck in the buy and manipulate phase. He forgot the sell part.
He should have listened to our mate, Elon.😂
Welpp, classic degenerate lol
Yeah but how to sell such a gigantic position without losing the manipulated price and therefore the profits?😂
@@sandro3211 Small blocks extended over a long period of time, and as long as market has strength he can actually get away with it and exit his position unscathed. Problem is that the offering sell pressure pooped on his party. This guy was greedy, he wanted the price to keep going even higher than $100 a share. He didn’t manage his risk appropriately.
He had had a good enough track record to get into the big banks big money. He wasn't a snot nosed graduate of Yale who thought his genius needed affirmation. He was more near usual retirement and had decades of experience. What went sideways?? His brain?
"It is illegal to lie to your banks to get them to lend you money."
I know a former United States president who hasn't watched this video, Patrick!
My lockdown hobby got me in trouble too. I thought, what a great time to install a skylight. The upstairs neighbors were furious.
Good luck in finding a jury that will be literate enough to comprehend all the issues from both the prosecution and defense side.
Thats the point. You hope they don't understand so its a toss up they make a decision that goes your way.
@@lombardo141 Yes. The more complexity confounds the thinking process, the more the seeds of reasonable doubt are sown.
When it is said "a jury of your peers" shouldn't it mean exactly that? In this instance - financial people.
@@markusgorelli5278 That is a great statement about a jury consisting of peers.
I'm not aware of any defining judicial decisions at the state or Supreme Court level that has defined peers for the sake of selecting juries. Probably because plaintiffs and defendant's attorneys want to have the flexibility to cull the jury pools, like predators do for weak prey, looking for jurors that they feel they can bamboozle and confuse and lead to their desired ends and not select equals or peers to the station of the defendant, that may actually be intelligent, especially in this case.
I suppose selection is a matter of the system maintaining a two way street when it comes to manipulation of juries by either opposing legal parties, especially when the evidence may require a jury of Nobel Prize winners and it is really hard to prove anything to those kinds of people.
A complicated issue makes the jury role less important and the role of the attorneys on both sides more important. Expert witnesses are found, qualified by the court and allowed to testify and then be cross examined. Then the other side brings in an expert witness that comes to an opposite conclusion based on the same facts and the process repeats. The result is that everyone involved is not sure about anything they used to know about life and lengthy appeals are guaranteed. Finally ending the case with the two sides settling out of court to end the madness.
The courts are useless in these cases. They just keep the peace until both sides are ready to settle.
Soon enough we'll get the headline "SEC arrests NFT Emoji for fraud." 😔
Careful with that sadface emoji, you could be violating some federal law
@@drunkdriver use the boomer defense lol
😂😂😂😂😂😂👌
I love the humour in your videos, it makes finance much more interesting!
Then he should make video on todays market :-)
I can’t believe the lack of due diligence for lending such large sums of money.
Just the name was enough,
Bill will make you billions.
Trust me bro🤣
Remember, the banks are getting a lot of money in fees. At just 1%, $1B in loans is $10M a year in interest.
The sad part is i wouldn't even get approved for a loan yet this man can get so much shit from the bank
@@tervilsnaider3103 He had a track record in the "correct" city, New York. Then blew it acting like he was a "Howe Street Whore" in Vancouver, BC or some Mexican stock exchange full of criminals and thug life. Was he ALWAYS one of those, just had the "correct" pathway. ??
And how many more are doing similar stupidity?
I mean even for us retail traders... lots of brokers like MooMoo or Webull or Robin Hood etc. are giving away free shares for joining and referring friends.
Now... Moo Moo for instance owned by FUTU Inc. I signed up for the freebies and hello goodbye took my money and ran... they only have margin accounts.
You cannot even request/demand a cash only account. They only have margin accounts available for sign up.
Something I rather not have since you need $25K or higher in margin assets to pattern day trade. I like to be in and out whenever I want. And not worry that I only have 3 day trades in a rolling 5 business day period or I get in "trouble".
And having a margin account for lots of these newbies is absurd.
At least my buying power long was double my margin. So my wimpy $2K I stuck on there for some extra freebie bonus shares I could buy up to $4K in stocks. And they allowed shorting power of $3K with my $2K in cash margin.
These banks and brokers have lost their freaking minds.
Doesn't help that our Fed Reserve has too by enabling them essentially free money to lend out to anyone or thing.
When the margin calls come... it's going to be fast and furious I think. Already looking like a topping pattern since September, and into this year the rallies have been completely bear market weak rallies. No capitulation really yet... but I think when it does happen... it's going to make the cliche of a blood bath seem quaint.
I love this channel. Patrick just seems like a really good guy. I could listen to him explain finance news for hours lol.
I'm pretty sure "it's just business" has to do a lot of lifting in the running of hedge funds.
Me too.
Unfortunate ordeal with that pasta loss.
420 hours a day, 69 days a week!
Really good? He hangs with Soros and Annie Duke. He is a smart capitalist.
"Once again, I'm not sure that you have to show that you bought a stock based on good and thorough research"
Phew, was getting a bit nervous there.
Right!?
A little bit of criminal law basics: to establish a crime, the prosecution must prove both a guilty act and a guilty mind. It would be a defence to the manipulation charge to establish that the trading was based on a genuinely held view of the true value of the stock. Whether that view was based on good research or not is not critical - though a complete lack of research or plausible argument as to value would make proving an alternative explanation for the trade more difficult.
The pleading that the trading was not based on a view as to the true value of the stock is the prosecution asserting a guilty mind - that driving up the price was the subjective purpose of the trade and not a mere byproduct - necessary to turn act the crime. It’s not an assertion that one has to have good research behind one’s view of the true value of a stock before trading it, just that in Hwang’s case a potential out, ie that he just liked the stock and wanted more of it, does not exist.
@@brucetownsend691 guilty mind is not needed. ignorance of the law is no excuse
@@rykehuss3435 You do not understand criminal law or the meaning of “ignorance of the law is no excuse.” The latter simply means that Hwang cannot plead that he did not know that stock manipulation was illegal.
@@brucetownsend691 I understand it, you clearly dont. "Stock manipulation was illegal", how about if he considered it stock manipulation to begin with?
18 minutes of gold, great stuff Mr. Boyle.
Pure 24 karat!! favorite part is Credit Suisse couldn't find a pasta maker during the pandemic so huge losses it was. The guy should do stand up.
"I am not a lawyer, and I know nothing about emoji precedents" haha
"It's not about the money; it's about sending a (goofy text) message" - Bill Hwang
what if Bill Hwang just thought to himself "fkc it, why not" and then went for it
"Buy the fkn dip"
- Bill Hwang
Was there an exit strategy with such massive concentrated positions? Just insane.
What's an exit strategy?
Stop-Loss and Conform was a perfect strategy. He should have stoped the loss and taken a short position considering that CBS had announced a stock split and him being an experienced trader knew that stock slits always result in Bearish trends
@@davianoinglesias5030 From a practical perspective, with such huge leveraged equity and derivatives positions, how much downside protection could he have set up? He had no liquidity, he had massive, concentrated notional positions in a few firms, he fraudulently reported his positions to the counter-parties, many of his positions likely were bespoke derivatives, etc.
If nothing else, trying not to trip up on the lies to the banks and regulators would have been a monumental task.
jail
Sir, besides the incredible wealth of info in your video, the straight, professional face you keep when you let out jokes is worth an Oscar. Kudos to you AND thanks for the amazing job
Pat, your deadpan humor goes so well with financial seriousness! P.S. the pocket square was truly classy.
I love the pocket square as well
Would love to see his folding technique :-)
Me and P are going way back
I really hope this all comes down to emoji semantics, it would fit my "everything is just getting stupid" macrosociological model
You crack me up with continual the Credit Suisse jokes. 😂😂😂😂
Patrick, when are you going to grab the mic and hit the stage? Your comedic prowess is undeniable!
That’s why I didn’t lose all my money in the pandemic! I learnt to make really good pasta! Glad you cleared that up Patrick
"They were buying dogs that they could then clean up after." - Mate, you missed a massive opportunity to put Elon and a Dogecoin screengrab right there...
Wrong because Elon did not have to clean up after dogecoin. Others did..
Excellent, as always.
Another amazing video. Thanks Patrick.
Amazing breakdown. Can’t wait for the newsletters
Poor Billy.
He just couldn't keep doubling down forever.
This is the Greatest sarcasm and dry humor ever
Danke!
Thanks!
The jokes are gold 🤣. Keep it up Mr.Boyle 👍
Been waiting for your take on the hwang arrest, and was not disappointed. Great work as always, Patrick!
fantastic video
Thank you.
Credit Suisse!!! ...... nah it can't be ... we are all shocked 😂
Debit Suisse seems to have taken a fairly expensive advertising route. I know getting their name in headlines is great advertising, but perhaps it would have been cheaper to pay for the adverts and not squander billions to get the headlines.
Word is Debit Suisse potentially merging with another bank very soon!
I subscribed to the newsletter! Thank you!
I enjoyed it thoroughly.
I laughed out loud at "High Score." Lots of Love for this video
Unfortunately it is literally all the gains are for a lot of these goons
Reminds me of the Chinese property market. Prices will keep going up and we can keep building more on credit.... right?
Classic Chinese.
Yep.
Terrific as always 👍😉
clear and concise, as ever. cheers
Always deliver - love how he prioritizes quality over video quantity
Patrick this is awesome content, im just your average 22 year old and I find this fascinating the way u present the info, keep it going !
This dude’s the king of dry humour. Lmao
So King of Mummy then.
Hilarious!! love it! Thanks
This channel deserves more subs! 👍🏽
Probably just one out of hundreds running a similar scam on Wall St.
What if he did that and then told his friends to all go short?
This was your best one yet.
Love the analysis. Love the dry comedy. One of the best on Finance YT. 👏
I'm trying to picture the courtroom as the SEC & Hwang's legal teams debate the finer points of emotes... I'm guessing they'd need to call their teenage kids as expert witnesses. 'Emote precedent' indeed! 🤔🙃😈
Great video. Very informative and you made me laugh as well.
Great video as always!
the dry humor and the stock photos are sooo good!
Credit Suisse might have cornered the market on losing money to markets but HSBC definitely own compliance losses.
In Australasia it's usually WestPac.
Deutche Bank for FX currency manipulation as well as Bank of America’s Commodities rogue trades.
Then there’s JPM and Barclays London Whale Trade scams.
The Societe General and Lazard Feres illegal Russian currency dealings. Both French Banks own banking retail outlets under names such as Serb Bank or Ros Bank etc.
The most laughable are LTCB Merton Scholes’ Derivatives Banking scandals as well as Mitsubishi Banks 1980’s Copper Commodities trading losses.
I'm just surprised there was something illegal that didn't involve Deutsche Bank.
@@somethinglikethat2176 they must be gutted at this opportunity to lose money
Who would have ever imagined Bill would do such a thing....
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Super video Patrick. Might be a good idea to do some more historic trading stories like this from the past. You do them very well. Dan
Great video, very informative and funny lol
I really enjoy that you deliver interesting financial stories interspersed with your dry wit.
His satire on Elon Musk is hillarious as well, we watched here at the office during lunch break . Elon invented everything from Coca Cola to the Rocket engine using the Nonprofit Green energy tax rebates for inventing fuel cell technology out of Solar Panels he discovered how to make out of recycled plastic cans while growing up in South Africa.
I came for the meme thumbnail, but stayed for the jokes
I'm worried as I'm almost Covid 72 in a few days, and the Avian Flu is about to hit my chickens. The big duck/goose migration into Canada in ON, and it doesn't look good.
i love your humor.
never stop doing videos
your sense of humor is on next level lol ..,, thanks for this great content
2:19 gonna clip this audio for my ringtone.
The plan likely was to create a higher perceived value for the stocks he purchased. However he became absorbed in the fulfillment of his plan and "let it ride".
As with so many things, his own greed and hubris was inevitably his downfall.
Gordon Gecko from the Oliver Stone movie, “Wall Street”.
“Greed for lack of a better word, is good.”
There is a very thin line if any,between greed and ambition. Infact the difference between a good trader and a rogue trader is just profits, If Hwang was successful we'd all be calling him a trading Guru or WallStreet Genius😅😅
Nice new camera!!
The part where you commented on the emoji use with a completely straight face was hilarious lol (lots of love)
Moral of the story: If your investment strategy can't survive Murphys law, it won't survive.
This video was on point. I haven't laughed this hard in a while. 😢
I think that was the right emoji.
We'll see how it holds up in court.
Holy Cow the SEC is actually doing things now.
U know the bubble is popping now
They charge people with fraud all the time
You're humor is always on point
If I had to pick who is more incompetent Credit Swiss or Bill Hwang, I’d have to pick Credit Swiss. Why are banking regulators letting these large systemically important banks engage in this kind of business in the first place?
Oh damn they got Billy, looking forward to what drama will come out in court. They can make a good movie from it.
hilarious i love your takes. thanks for the great content.
Bravo! I’m hitting subscribe.
Trying to figure out how you could ever unwind that position and keep any profit...
It would of taken him 100 days or about 3months. He would if lost a lot still but not everything like now!
Only other play he might of done might of been to place short bets under a different entity, which also might of been possible as well but this would also be discovered.
Aren't we all
@@angloedu5499 but even still, he has to find a buyer at a strike price somewhere near the price he had drive the stock to...
I'm loving the memes, Patrick! 😁😁 At least for me, your recent use of memes has made all the difference when it comes to my ability to retain my focus while I'm watching your more theory heavy videos without having my brain sometimes unconsciously 'tune out' halfway through or automatically pulling my phone out of my pocket after which I always lose track of your narrative because I am now wondering why I was holding my phone in my hand all of the sudden. (I hope you know that this isn't in the slightest way meant as an insult or denigration!) But especially when it comes to dragging the viewer (or me, at least) through the more, erm... generally thought of as 'dry', slightly 'monotonous' and/or 'theoretically dense' parts of your videos, I think you've truly found a highly effective winning strategy here!
And I really do hope you keep meming all the way, every day, right up until the moment (hopefully very far in the future) where we all will have to start spamming 'F' in the comments because you'll have gone away! 😭 And although you're sometimes using a meme incorrectly, it brings me great joy to see that 80% of the time your meming is done in a responsible and correct manner _every time_ and you're well on your way to becoming a true meme lord! 😂🙏 A great weekend, I hope you have 👍🤓 Many greetings from 🇳🇱 NL!!
most of this stuff is way over my head, but Patrick's comedic delivery is priceless
I was chuckling all thru this presentation. I thought the emoji legal precedents were genius. keep it up.
I appreciate your caveat at the end… something here doesn’t make sense. He’s a experienced trader and the theory laid out by the SEC makes him seem like a mad man
Agreed, it makes no sense. Maybe he just got carried away with the game and forgot there would be a final whistle!
Experienced trader and mad man are not mutually exclusive in fairness
Simple, he got greedy. No matter how smart you are once you get greedy it makes you blind to the dangers around you since you're so focused on getting that banana. We can be smart yet do stupid things too when we get blinded by hate, lust or whatever, and it happens to the best of us.
Free my man Hwang
So did it turn out that using derivatives allows you to circumvent the 5% ownership disclosure rules? You said we'll have to wait and see. Thank you! Love the channel!
The sarcastic banter is nearly proportional to the perspective informational value , first rate content pat
Another great video ! By the way Patrick, I am glad you were able to solve focus & exposure issues so this video is top notch ! Re: Bill, a safe guess would be that he started making (virtual) money so at a certain time he lost touch with his strategy and risk management. That 30X in one year led to an overflow of dopamine and let's call it a god like sentiment.
As retail trader, in a middle of a trade that goes against me, it happens to me to ask myself: what would happen if I had billions to make the price go my way :D Seems Bill just did that. By the way, I remember a took lots of long trades on VIAC on the way up beginning of March 21 and some shorts on the way down. I made good money from that saga. I remember also that there were some instances of quotation halts that were quite scary and annoying...
Could the exit strategy have been to, after getting access to more leverage from the increased collateral of his CBS position, to start buying a more diversified basket of stocks and to slowly unwind his house of cards? As the SEC said, this would have taken at least a 100 days, but would've given him a nice leveraged position in the end.
Arch egos was up 35x times it’s original billion dollars! He could of retired comfortably but I guess he wanted to be the next Paulson or Soros. Both of them had ties to Goldman Sachs whereas Bill H. used his background knowledge of return swaps and family offices.
He could have been the Asian version of Soros, but ended up like a Bernie Madoff.
That could be a nice strategy in theory
The concept is that it only works if market participants somehow realized the value of that pumped up stock and made the price stagnant even if Bill sold his position, otherwise, it would be margin call. That means he made four bet:
The stock's really good that people will appreciate it eventually
He got enough time to do that
Market risk literally low throughout the time
There's minimal corporate event throughout the time
Well its really a bad bet eventually
Bills bets in the past were disastrous. His last disaster, “Diesel Gate” was a disaster because he thought VW was going to crater.
The same could be applied to Tesla. However, the EV market will soon be flooded with more EV makers and its hard to see which makers are going to survive.
Exit Strategy could be to Purchase a Bunch of short term puts than unload the entirety of the stock position
Than he can profit off the rapidly falling share price which he manipulated.
@@tsunderella5826 for him to have more than half of the outstanding share in public, is there even enough put for him to do reckless action like that? Not to mention when its short term, he risked himself many times to be caught by SEC when unloading his position. It just didnt seem viable to me
great work, as always. g5
The emoji joke was killer too lol 😂
Yes but who's laughing now that pasta prices have gone through the roof?
“Maybe he just liked the stock". Haha.
Your wit gets me every time. 🤣😂
Thank you
Biggest shock about this story was Deutsche's lack of involvement.
you had me in a laughing fit! 😆 made my night.
I really enjoy Mr Boyle’s extra dry financial humour.
These videoes are entertaining and informative!
Your dry wit and humor is the best.
Schedule 13D does not apply to swaps. In Bills Total Return Swaps: he’s the Long Leg which makes money (appreciation) as the stock goes up “in an equal and same amount as the Short Leg except with a negative sign in front of it (depreciation)” which is owed/facing the Bulge Bracket that sold it to him in the first place. From here, the Prime can either hedge internally as you said by buying the stock if it doesn’t have it in its inventory already or enter in another TRS with another BB bank. At this point, the bank is hedged and doesn’t make or lose money on the position minus the mark-ups/mark-downs ie commission. The biggest problem as you pointed out was that each Prime did not know what the other “faced” insofar as how much he had elsewhere which he consequently lied about. The losses that the banks had to eat was on the “hedged” leg of Bill’s trade ie the long stock inventory to hedge the short leg of Bill’s TRS or the TRS the bank “bought” with another CP to hedge the short leg risk facing Bill. The losses equal the amount that Archegos owed each Prime when “Called” as the positions moved against him. Another problem here is the Haircuts which were too small charged by the banks relative to his concentration but it wasnt really that small for each Prime like 10% initial/maintenance at the least…thats not that bad. Its almost close to OCC’s TIMs/4210/PM which is 15%. And anybody can get that. But you CANT shock a portfolio when you don’t know the Tradeaways/Give-ups! Anyways, well done on the video. Mad respect for being an ex-Soros PM, very few people can say that…theres only like two people I can think of and their first names start with Stanley and Victor lol! Cheers!!
I ain't reading all that shit so, congratulations, or I'm sorry that happened to you.
well if banks asked if he had loans form other banks, and he said no, then he lied, but if he said yes, or more liklely would have evaded, then, he may be in the clear, dont think that you can argue the case based on the interpetation of what an emoji means for the prosicution.
Wasn't that one of the things that happened in "the Big Short"? Our hero didn't KNOW that he was on the opposite side of his OWN position, and to the tune of 15 billion instead of 3 billion in exposure/????
"no, it's a sign of me buying" LOL
Thanks Patrick!