Class 9: Nothing Has A Probability

NOTE: The correct formula at the end of the video/homework is : Pr(PQ|E) = Pr(P|QE)Pr(Q|E)
Lesson 9: There is no probability life on other planets exists. There is no probability life on earth exists. There is no probability you are alive. There is no probability you will die by cancer. Because NOTHING has a probability. De Finetti shouted, and we agree, PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST. We go through the true meaning of probability today.
All questions will be answered in the following Monday's lecture.
Written lecture: www.wmbriggs.c...
wmbriggs.subst...
Permanent class page: www.wmbriggs.c...

[@austintaylor3746]

Thanks for taking the time to make these video lectures. I stumbled upon this video series during my search for Bayesian probability and data analysis, and now find myself enjoying learning about this stuff without being killed by math classes 😁

[@eytansuchard8640]

In math, probability is a measure theory with a measure that sums to 1. In physics, probability is actually a metaphysical concept which means there is no deterministic model that can predict the state s(t) of a system, given stat s(0) when t is local proper time.

[@WMB]

Go back a couple of lectures. All we've proved so far is that probability can be a number. The only two numbers we've deduced so far are 0 (locally false) and 1 (locally true).
Two weeks from now we prove other numbers.

[@tommyrjensen]

I did not understand that either. Every measurable set in a probability space has an associated probability, which is a real number between 0 and 1. So he is addressing people who do not know this?

[@eytansuchard8640]

@@tommyrjensen In math, not every measure space is a probability space however every probability space is a measure space. In physics, a probability system is a set of quantum states or state vectors such that 1) Probability can be applied to the measure of the states as random variables. 2) There is no deterministic algorithm that can predict the values of the random variables. The latter is a metaphysical anecdote.

[@tommyrjensen]

@@eytansuchard8640 Did you make that up yourself? If somebody would say "For any system there is an algorithm that can predict future states from an initial state" would that not be a metaphysical hypothesis that contradicts observations?

[@eytansuchard8640]

@@tommyrjensen Thank you for your reply. No because observations can appear random even if the bets model of Nature is deterministic but chaotic both locally and globally.

[@philweight3480]

Probability is simply a statement of not knowing, embroidered with some speculation.

[@hendrixgryspeerdt2085]

You personality is amazing and your lecture is engaging. Thank you for producing such great educational material.

[@WMB]

Many thanks right back for watching.

[@repsaknivek]

Wow. Just discovered you and this. I’m hooked.

[@ai_serf]

Are you saying that no proposition has a probability on its own, but only a proposition along with facts can have a probability assigned to it? It has to be a proposition with additional facts before we can then assign a probability to it.

[@WMB]

That's what I'm saying. There is no such thing as Pr(P), there is only Pr(P|Q) for whatever Q you supply.

[@LucBoeren]

Thanks TH-cam algorithm, but there's no probability I'm gonna understand this these 10 mins I'm sipping my coffee before going to work

[@ChechoColombia1]

Is this a reason why we get Bertrand paradox (probability)?

[@WMB]

We'll do that one soon. Thanks.

[@jccusell]

Isn't this Einstein's stance on quantum mechanics? That probability can't be a fundamental property of a system, only our inability to know or measure all relevant parameters to make perfect predictions about the system?

[@WMB]

Well, something like that. But we do also have to consider Bell. And an entirely different metaphysics (following Heisenberg following Aristotle). All this is to come.

[@FuchsiaRiv]

Thank you so much!

[@stanleypearce2624]

Is probability the combinatoric system that arises from a proposition bias?

[@WMB]

Sort of, but not always. And yes, it uses propositional calculus.

[@forheuristiclifeksh7836]

7:00

[@jugurtha5410]

thank you very much

[@WillsEasyGuitar]

what is the probability of his assertions being accurate?

[@matswessling6600]

probability is as close to 0 as you can get.

[@kasperprindal-nielsen4983]

@@matswessling6600 I'm pretty sure it's the same as the odds of rolling seven on a six sided die.

[@WMB]

If you listened closely, you realize this statement has no answer.
Or the answer is: it depends on what evidence you are assuming.
Mine are the arguments I used to defend the view; given that, the probability is 1.

[@matswessling6600]

@@WMB evidence are not assumed. only facts are evidence.

[@jf-jx4ym]

​@@matswessling6600In practice... No in so Many ways.

[@eduardosuela7291]

I loved so much how you dealt with nonsense in the beginning, that i had to share the video.

[@WMB]

Thanks.

[@BCarli1395]

Thanks again.

[@1234larry1]

If something is, it is; if it’s not it’s not. Anything else is just conjecture. If we assume a premise is true and follow logic, we can determine whether or not some other things are true or false. Probability is an educated guess, but it’s neither true, nor false, until the event happens or doesn’t.

[@WMB]

It doesn't have to be about an event, though. As we'll see in a few weeks.

[@GregoXWK4225]

Probability is just a shortcut we use when we don't have all the necessary data.

[@raghvendrabhargava1801]

so interesting