The U.S. economy relies on ongoing credit and debt generation for sustenance. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase the money supply, leading to further debt accumulation for the average American. Meanwhile, foreign nations continue to desire the U.S. dollar, despite their own economies facing significant challenges, some even worse than that of the U.S. This situation raises concerns about who will ultimately bear the consequences of these economic dynamics.
They do say gold will crash in a liquidity crunch However, many of those holding precious metals are preparing for such an event. So they are unlikely to be forced sellers. The paper market would tank and hopefully collapse.
People often overlook the value of financial advisors until they experience the downside of emotional decision-making. I recall a few summers ago, after a difficult divorce, when I needed help reviving my struggling business. I did some research and found a licensed advisor who worked diligently to grow my reserves, even amid inflation. As a result, my reserves grew from $285k to around $720k.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
@@glitterandsudsasmr7130just ask the champion of all losers, onlyfans subscribers. After trump became president, it's like all the losers of the world relized just how many of them there were and collectively decided to ruin everything.
The avg. American is having a tough time, I know I am not alone. There are others in same position as me. By certain statistics: 22% of americans have no retirement savings. 64% are worried that they will not have money in latter years while 47% of adults who are not yet retired think they have to work part-time in retirement. How can I best grow the 120k I have saved so far for retirement which has depleted over the years?
I agree with the reply above. I also think you should think about steps you can take to start. Start somewhere. Anything is better than being frozen even.
The decision on when to pick an advisor is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘ Monica Mary Strigle ‘ to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
In retirement red zone, if you haven’t saved enough, cut expense. Don’t celebrate and buy a car when you get a promotion. Use science and math when it comes to money, sock away more money.
What, are you telling me you don't want to add another Patreon subscription on top of the other 243 you're supposed to already have? Man man, that's only 2usd times 244. You don't have a spare 500 bucks at the end of the month buddy? I think you should consider investing on stock to earn good money
personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.
Invest judiciously, keep a stop loss figure. Shuffle between debt and equity wherever the ratio goes too off your target. As for the target, I recommend a Ratio like this Debt % should be equal to your age in years. If you are 20, debt is 20%, reset in equity. If the market falls or rises drastically, your debt % will change, which you should rebalance to 20% and bring back equity to 80%. Thus you would have bought low or booked profit depending on if it was a crash or a bull run.
Starting early is simply the best way of getting ahead to build wealth , investing remains a priority . I learnt from my last year's experience , I am able to build a suitable life because I invested early ahead this time .
I totally agree; I am 66 years old, recently retired, with approximately $1.2 million in external retirement funds. I am debt free and have very little money in retirement funds compared to the total value of my portfolio over the past three years. To be honest, I didn't do all this alone, but with the help of a financial advisor. Having one is currently the best way to trade in the stock market, especially for people nearing retirement.
Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with? I've wanted to make this switch for a very long time now, but I've been very hesitant about. I'll appreciate any recommendation.
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
@@JohnHarris-vh9ng Yall broke because this live Peter Grilling is going to be hilarious, asking him questions live and then getting on his head? I'm down
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2024. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. and I conducted thorough research on her credentials before scheduling a call with her. Based on her résumé, she appears to possess a high level of proficiency, and I am grateful for the opportunity to speak with her.
Then stick with the freebies. But Peter offers insights you don’t get on any of your other subscriptions. So why don’t you cancel some of those and have some real water cooler or cocktail party tidbits that make you seem to be in the know!😊
You are totally misinformed. All Patreon membership gets you is the early access. All of his videos will be released as usual; the Patreon gets a bragging right about the "I heard it first" kind of thing.
@@GohPhuckyoselph lol. Sorry. I didn't realize it was a sarcastic comment. LoL. Now you said it. Saying your comments in sarcastic voice sounds funny as hell. 🤣
When it comes to competing with your neighbour for a new loan, or who is better off after making proportional debt repayments, then yes, that logic works fine.
What, are you telling me you don't want to add another Patreon subscription on top of the other 243 you're supposed to already have? Man man, that's only 2usd times 244. You don't have a spare 500 bucks at the end of the month buddy? Pick yourself up the bootstraps will you? Maybe hit the pavement and hand out some of those resumes!
What is the problem ? We just will get a lot of information a little delayed. Doesn't make that huge a difference if Peter talks about a problem that will be there for the next decades or if Peter speaks about it one month later....
@@chaleej5571I pay YT Premium, sticking up for the corp that doesn’t pay the people that make their content enough to continue to do it is the problem.
The campaign shenanigans from both the red party and blue party is exactly what is stirring up this market panic. I have a little over 250k i wanted to put in the markets but I don’t know what direction to head now.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
My CFA *Julianne Iwersen-Niemann* a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
The US debt has so many moving parts to it that it doesn't make sense to speak of it as single debt. And when you start to break it down into its individual parts, it begins to look a lot less scary.
Me too. It's so frustrating when they all do this, and then on top it all the in-video ads (those should be automatically skipped if premium member IMO).
I think it depends on what you count as "debt." For example, California has around $550 billion or so of local & state debt. But if you add in unfunded liabilities like future pension payments it balloons to something like $1.6 trillion.
I came across your channel through this video- case studies are incredibly valuable, and I'm eager to see more in the future! Building wealth involves establishing routines, like consistently setting aside funds at regular intervals for smart investments.
You're correct. I think the smartest way to go is to spread out your investments. By putting your money into different asset classes like bonds, real estate, and stocks from other countries, you can lower the risk if one part of the market goes bad.
That sounds like a good plan. In the past two years, working closely with a financial market specialist, I've builta six-figure diversified stock portfolio. Now, I aim to diversify even more this year.
Talking about a financial market specialist, do you consider anyone worthy of recommendations? I have about 10Ok to test the waters now that large cap stocks are at a discount
I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Martha Ann Hammerton, has been an amazing experience.
Same here!! Though I started with as low as $7,000 AUD actually because it was my first time and it was Successful., She is a great personality in Australia 🇦🇺
The first time I heard the "debt doomsday" was when we had about $7 trillion debt, since then I have been hearing the same doomsday argument every few years. There is nothing hidden here, everybody knows we will keep borrowing money with neither the capability nor the intention to pay them back. At meantime, our debt did not collapse and the US dollar has been stable against most of the other currencies. There must be something else in play. Recently we printed lots of money and caused high inflation, however the inflation inflated our GDP as well, since every product and every service become more expensive, hence the same economic transaction will contribute more to the GDP. Even though the debt to GDP ratio has grown to 130%, our GDP has also grown to an impressive 27 trillions, much larger than the next contender China with $18 trillions. It seems the dominant economic power increases the lenders' debt tolerance. Or maybe for a consumer based economy, like US, the debt issue is lesser a problem than a producer based economy, like China. It is similar to the fact that US is less concerned about lending money to Ukraine to buy our weaponry, we know the money will come right back to our economy. Since we are the biggest consumer of the world products, other countries may be less concerned about lending money to us, since most of the money will go back to their economies through our spendings. Or maybe the real problem is not the debt, but the interest. Everyone knows we cannot solve the debt problem because of its sheer size, but the interest payment is a much smaller problem, we may be able to reduce the interest payment pressure through measured inflation. Maybe the reason nobody cares about our debt is because when we talk about the debt problem what we really thinking subconsciously is the interest payment. Because the US debt is tradeable in the open market and also very liquid, you buy bond, you earn interests, you sell bond. As long as you can sell the bond and get your principle back, the only thing matters is if you can earn your interests back, why you care about how big the bond total market value is ? China has a much large GDP PPP than US, however PPP has nothing to do with Debt problem, it is just that with smaller US GDP PPP we have less buying power inside US than otherwise, but that is the part of the deal of printing money and high debt we have made with ourselves. The buying power is localized, that is the same haircut you get in China is much cheaper than in US, the same service will contribute to China GDP much less than contribute to US GDP. This discrepancy feels artificial and does not make sense. Same thing happens in many other less advanced countries as well, which gives many American retirees a very good deal if they so choose to live in those places, everything is cheaper. This buying power difference reflects the collective preference of living in one place over the others, so it in fact does reflect the real value. If China is a paradise and everyone want to migrate there, getting a haircut in a paradise provides a much higher value than getting the same haircut in a slum. To keep US dollar strong against other currencies, US needs to maintain its economical super power position where most people want to migrate to. At the same time, an economical super power will increase people's tolerance to its bad economic behaviors, like higher debt and money printing.
You have a good point, especially your last arguments. However, you need to understand though, there is no perfect solution, only trade-off. The U.S can only maintain economic superpower by importing more people and capital-flight. However, you get both of the extremes. 1. The illegal immigrants that flood to U.S will help building this country, but most-likely will drive down wages due to more competitions (supply and demand 101). 2. The capital-flight from others countries are usually from rich-elites. Of course not all of them are bad actors... But at the very least, they don't view America as their homelands nor care about working-class tbh. They view the U.S as "free and easier to exploit". Which i believe they will gladly exploit the system and enrich themselves even more. At the end of the day, you can only choose one. The U.S and its culture remain hegemonic in the world. But the demographic , the people won't be the same as 1900s. In fact, it will be opposite.
This comment sounded like you didn't listen to the video all the way through. He just said '30 years to a Japan style problem.' That doesn't endorse kicking the can down the road.
Not an endorsement so much as an acknowledgement that others have already gone where we're going, with less wiggle room to work with, and it hasn't been the end of the world.
@@olivesama My father was with the occupation forces in 1945 Germany. I think for those Germans who had to endure, it seemed like the end of the world. So sure, life goes on but do we have to create a miserable environment for the guiltless to live thru? I wonder.
Math does not lie. The whole “everyone else is doing it” excuse does not work. We will reach a point shortly where we can’t afford the interest on our debt and people will look for ROI elsewhere
….honestly, this is the first time I’ve ever considered paying for a TH-cam channel. I’m not yet. But first time I’ve ever considered it. Keep up the good work 👊
It's not going to hurt significantly. The US debt to GDP ratio isn't that high. Even if the US borrows all the money required to finance the interest (500-1000 billion per year) but otherwise balances the budget, the debt to gdp ratio falls quickly.
It's not compulsory only if you want to, I'm forking out for TH-cam premium so no subs from me, also being a recalcitrant wasteful Boomer living of the freebies (Despite having to pay proportionally high taxes on lower wages and high interest for my mortgage, up to 15%!, for over 40 years of my life, and having to bloody actually "go to work" for 48 hours a week minimum, it was such an easy blissful life)!?!
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional i am grateful to Michelle sule
Working with her has been a game-changer for my financial well-being. Her ability to simplify complex financial concepts and provide tailored solutions is commendable. Francine passion for her work shines through, making the financial planning process not only effective but also enjoyable..
that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 2 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.
It really helped trading with michelle sule stewart analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
Peter, I just joined the analyst tier. I read all your books. Interested now in your current take on Ukraine/Russia, Israel/rest of the world, US way forward. thx and keep on hiking.
@@tallahassZExcuses, excuses if they weren't so selfish it wouldn't be so easy to lie to them. I've literally argued with boomers who think they shouldn't have to pay taxes for education because their children are adults. This isn't the product of lies it is a pathology. Despicable, and then they have the gall complain about the new generations.
Talk about cherry picked statistics. There are only 760 billionaires in the US. Why would anyone expect those 760 people to be enough to service the debt? Strawman much?
As long as the USD has the IRS, 2 fleets of nuclear carriers and 31 friends in NATO the USD is still gonna be worth something. People have been saying the same thing since FDR gave the dollar a 40% hair cut in 1933
Do what you've got to do Peter. TY for the free content over the years Peter. Good luck with the channel. Maybe we can still see you as a guest on another channel every so often, so we don't forget all about you. That would be nice.
Capital flight from China has been happening for quite a while (not in the future). The CCP tries to limit how much money people can take out, ... but people find a way. The smart ones see it coming too. Real Estate on the west coast of the US one very good place for them to park their money.
Since when have the fiscal conservatives mattered? Reagan complained in 1964 that we had only balanced the budget 12 of the last 38 years. I think we might have had 3. Oh and as President he never did either.
Hey Zeihan and team! I really appreciate the focus on video based content. This is how I consume my news as its easier to do while working. Signing up for Patreon now!
No. No. No. The "national debt" isn't borrowed money that has to be paid back to anyone. It's the difference between all federal spending (into the economy) and what's been collected in federal taxes. That difference- all $35 trillion of it- is currency in circulation. Money in your wallet, in your savings, at the bottom of a lake, or stashed away by the trillions in offshore accounts. Deficit spending is a necessity in our modern monetary policy framework. If the federal government taxed back 100% of what it spent into the economy, then nobody would have any money. If you think that's not true, then ask yourself where else it could come from, since the federal government is the sovereign issuer of its own currency. Taxation as revenue applies only to state and local government- users of currency- not the federal government. Federal government funds and provisions itself through the creation of currency, and has no need to "borrow" the very thing only it has the power to create. It can't be in debt to itself, and the only debt it issues is in the form of US treasury bonds. While it does pay interest on T bills, it hasn't borrowed any money, and the federal government doesn't issue them to gain a source of spending. They're issued to keep the value of the dollar strong by giving investors (or China) a safe place to store some of their money. The only danger to having too high of a "national debt" (too much spending) is inflation, but this doesn't just happen at some arbitrary number or ratio- Japan's national debt to GDP ratio had been above 200% for decades, and it hasn't experienced problematic inflation. Besides, there are ways to mitigate inflation when it's caused by too much currency in circulation (taxation). If maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar is the goal, then higher taxes (less income) don't matter, because fewer dollars can still buy the same amount of goods and services. It's always interesting when people use pretzel logic or complex math applied to abstract models to explain why ACKtually, sovereign issuers of a currency ARE constrained by the same rules as a spendy teenager with a credit card- but that's like trying to argue that monopolists aren't price setters because they're constrained by competition. The policy framework is clear, and should be well understood, particularly by those working at the national and professional levels, but the politics of power can always be counted on to make sure we can't have an honest conversation about anything.
To correct Peter, average EU debt ratios have been somewhat stable/decreasing in europe for the past 10 years, there was a spike due to covid but despite that the ratios today are lower than they were 10 years ago, the US has had a 22% increase in the same time period. In my country Portugal we actually had a 32% debt ratio reduction over the past 10 years, despite the covid spike and despite having a left socialist government during 8 of those years ( which is about the only positive thing i have to say about that government ). While for the US it's not yet alarming having a debt ratio of 120%, it's concerning that the issue is not being addressed while there are upwards economic cycles, that's basic economics 101, lower the debt when economy is up and increase in times of recession ... you all have to thank dem/rep populist politicians for that ... and the people that vote for them.
i dont think the euro zone will collapse. I think a stress event, or series of, will cause them to move more centrally and form a Federal Europe as a single country. I dont think they could have done this with the UK as a member, we'd never have stood for it, but I can't think of a member country that has the power to stop it apart from Germany and France, and they are both too committed to it at this point
I'm sorry but i don't see that happing ever. The cultural differences are too vast between european countries, different languages in each memberstate won't make it easy neither. Most european people have national pride and i don't see us giving that away anytime soon. Germany just blocked an italian takeover of a german bank thus protecting their national interests, it's a pipedream and noting but talk.
Europe will devolve into border checkpoints and national currencies before it turns in the United States of Europe. Every little country there thinks they are the best and allow the others to tag along out of their magnanimity.
I can charge this subscription as an expense to my company, thereby reducing my income taxes. Im happy to contribute to the national debt by subscribing to Peter.
Come on man, a patreon subscription? Why can’t you get a team going and get ads like the rest of the world? I won’t be going there and a lot of people won’t either which makes your move not powerful and something that will backlash.
@@let0atreides he only Patreon subscriptions I have are to support people doing great work that's highly niche, and which can only really exist that way. having said that, it's just a subscription service. If you like the product, why not pay for it? I'm going o stick with he delayed unpaid stuff, but I can see why some people subscribe and I'm also very aware their contributions subsidise what I get out of Peter. So thanks, subscribers, genuinely.
@@let0atreides Ive been subscribing to magazines since I was about 12, and that was a long, long time ago, so I'm ok with it. I think we went through a transition period in the internet where free because the default, but this was harmful to ourselves and the services we rely on.
@@let0atreidesNoone ever owes you free entertainment and everyone has a right to demand a certain return for it. If you dont agree, no sale. Simple as that. If you want welfare call up your local govt.
I am a millionaire and I use credit cards constantly. I get 3 percent cash back. That works out to $1000s of dollars a year but never carry any ballance. I also have 100 percent protection against fraud. Other things like extended warranties and car rental insurance lots of different perks. Key point you must use responsibly.
Peter. I heard china is printing "extra" money. To the world bank, china printed 1 billion yuan as recorded. But china print 5× the 1 billion yuan with the same serial number. Some chinese are holding 3 '100 yuan' with the same serial number' n its not counterfeit. What would happen if the world bank find out..?😮😮
That is interesting. I'd want to see some real proof that this is happening, but if it is, it really should force international finance groups to downgrade a lot of assumptions about China.
"We're not going to be in Japan's situation for another thirty years..." Great. Tell me Gen X won't get to retire without telling me that Gen X won't get to retire. F*** it. I've already survived like a dozen end-of-the-world events so far. One of them is bound to take me out sometime. Then my problems will be over.
I wish I had the finances to become a patreon but still appreciate the info! Although you didn't ask, one video I would love to see is a recap video where you list your hits and misses. More specifically, predictions you got right and wrong. Great channel!
Why are u even interested in geopolitics if u are so broke you can't afford food, why don't you try to influence what right in front of you instead of worrying about the world
The national debt seems large but the fact that the 10-year bond has a yield so incredibly far before the Fed overnight rate shows you that there is a tremendous appetite for it. So the market says no, it's not a problem. Today.
If I can borrow 4 or 5 times my yearly income as a morgare, then why cant the US owe 1.5 X the yearly GDP? The US GDP being ca 20 T...whats the big deal? The fed just prints more cash...Warren Buffet said, we are in new teritory, just keep up consumption, work, produce, we dont know what it will lead to but it is working...save a bit, make more and let inflation kill the debt. Keep an eye on what you owe but dont panic.
The government revenues are not 100% of GDP, our economy. Our federal tax revenue in 2024 is ~$4.5 trillion. This is the total pie from which ~$1 trillion is now going to service the debt.
Assuming you meant that seriously... it's the difference between MICRO and MACRO economics. What works for a mortgage or a credit card debt is not always the same when you look at it on a nation-scale. Mind you, your proposed solution is still exactly the right one (except for just printing more money. That has to be limited). As long as the US keeps producing and consuming, and as long as there is NO OTHER OPTION to the rest of the planet propping up the US economy... there is theoretically no end to amount of debt we can sustain.
I am glad that Peter Zeihan has admitted having a staff to help him. This explains how he has been able to successfully shift from simply discussing demographics to a wider range of topics.
Do YOU work for free? Probably not. And at least Peter is keeping his promise of several years that his newsletter will always be free. Unless you want new, extra goodies, you don't need to shell out a dime.
@@infidelheretic923Basic services whose costs have ballooned out of all proportion compared to when they were first introduced. The NHS in the UK is a splendid example. It cost the Treasury the inflation-adjusted equivalent of £11 billion in its first full year of operation in 1949-50. It will cost £192 billion in this financial year.
Peter just so you know. The modern economic system the US enjoys nowadays, meaning a non-convertible floating currency system, taxing doesnt raise money. The money spent by the government is just marked on computer screens at the FED on the directions of the US treasury. In reality taxing and government spending are two totally different operations that have no connection to one another. In other words to simplify, in the current system the government doesnt work anything like a household that needs to save in order to spend.
Yes, government spending creates money while government taxing destroys money. In practice too much spending causes inflation. We saw this after the pandemic. The pandemic should have caused double-digit deflation, but the government sent multiple stimulus checks that were over $1,000 each plus lots of extra unemployment and other money out to the economy stopping the deflation. Next, when the velocity of the money dumped in the economy increased when stuff opened back up we got high inflation The government is like a special black box where money spent increases the money supply and money brought in decreases it. The government can also spend money poorly or wisely as it gets first dibs on this newly created money (as it spends it first). Poor quality government spending or spending too much both cause problems. Taxing too much or too little also cause problems.
Avid youtube consumer here - many content providers add Patreon to their YT offerings, then minimize their TY offerings (Ryan McBeth comes to mind). That brings in cash, but ultimately erodes the YT exposure. I have unsubscribed from Ryan McBeth because there are only Patreon commercials now! yawn. Good luck with your subscription service
@@cantrell0817 I like Ryan. But he's not important enough to me to support with money. Just with a YT like and a subscribe. There are different levels of support.
Raided what funds Peter? There are NO funds. Just the general kitty. And those expenses are not discretionary, the US must spend = the deficit will grow. Did you totally miss out on how Congress spends?
Not really. Reserve currency status comes with very strict limitations. If the USD wasn’t the reserve currency, the US government could do whatever they please with it.
@@AngelEconomics goods from the rest of the world. Usa is reliant on a strong reserve dollar to maintain its standard of living and to create dollars without generating too much inflation. Other countries can't do that
I have been following you for years now. I am a poor and disabled American that is at least well informed... Every morning, I catch up with Geopolitics. I am worlds away from my peers in with my daily bits of geopolitical information and its accompanying accuracy... Will I have to pay Patreon to still be with you? That is... If I wait for the regular TH-cam, will the videos already be days old by then? Thank you to Zeihan and his people!
Greed? How so? If people will pay for it, good for him. I’ll guess you are a failure who has nothing and you think money should be taken from successful people and given to people like you. You want to take money that you didn’t earn. Taking what others earned because you’re a failure is far worse than greed.
@@themetalhead1463thats a whole lot of projection and assumptions for such a small statement. Rich people STAY rich by not paying money for things they can get for free and cheap. So maybe you can put that shoe on the other foot.
”The Eurozone more indebted than the US” Sure about that? Government debt in Europe is 89.9% of GDP in the euro area and 82.6% in the EU. Both are decreasing. In the US government debt is 110% and rising.
The size of the federal government needs to be cut in half, at least in order to solve the debt problem. We cannot tax our way out of this. This country functioned perfectly well and was able to win a world war, invent the nuclear bomb and go to the Moon with a much smaller federal government. There are millions of federal employees and that is just way too much. We can't afford it and that's why we have a massive debt. If we needed this large of a government then the United States would have collapsed generations ago from having too small of a federal government. We did not collapse from having too small of a government, we became an economic powerhouse, wealthy and had a large middle class with a much smaller government. You cannot convince me that we need to have a government anywhere near this large, or that we're better off because of it. I'm not sure why he didn't even mention that as being the problem.
Government debt is a lack of tax. It’s nothing to do with size of govt, that’s a different unrelated problem. If you want smaller govt debt, tax more (I.e. destroy more money from the system).
@CraigPerry Yeah no not quite. It's literally part 2. It's Government Budget - Tax Revenue. Lower the former or raise the latter you get the same effect.
@@buddermonger2000 no that’s deficit not debt. you can decrease government budget and still increase debt (if you’ve failed to tax enough money out of existence). P.s your reply was MIGHTY confident for being incorrect!
@CraigPerry It is the deficit, yes. That deficit requires payment via debt. So that's how you increase the debt. In order to decrease the debt, you have to still shrink the government budget (but don't change taxes), so that you can run a surplus and pay down some of the principal. Btw our current interest is greater than the military budget.
The Eurozone is relatively stable in the short to medium term, supported by strong core economies, the ECB's monetary policy, and fiscal tools like the ESM. However, long-term solvency will depend on how effectively it manages high debt levels, political cohesion, demographic changes, and external shocks. Enhanced fiscal integration and structural reforms, particularly in more vulnerable economies, are likely necessary to ensure long-term solvency.
Peter, you are amazing. You make me look at the world and politics in a totally different way and I love that. I will definitely be proud to join your patron, but I do have a suggestion. Why don't you keep that in house? Patron takes a cut of it and a pretty good cut. One more question, have you ever done the Grand Canyon rim to rim?
The U.S. economy can actually get better if only the govt can start making better decisions for the sake of it's citizens, cos' they've really made life more difficult for its residents. Hyperinflation has left the less haves bearing the brunt of the burden. Its already eating into my entire $620k retirement portfolio. Like where else can we invest our money with less risks?
Just get a financial planner straight up! personally, I would invest in etf and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but I'm comfortable in my financial environment.
I agree. Exactly why I now work with one. A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their emotions, no offense. I remember some years back, during the covid-outbreak, I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence researched for advisors and thankfully came across one with grit. As of today, my cash reserve has yielded from $350k to nearly $1m
I work with *Izella Annette Anderson* as my fiduciary advisor. Simply look up the name. You would discover the information you needed to schedule an appointment.
Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I investigated her well before using her services. Considering her résumé, she appears competent.
The U.S. economy relies on ongoing credit and debt generation for sustenance. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase the money supply, leading to further debt accumulation for the average American. Meanwhile, foreign nations continue to desire the U.S. dollar, despite their own economies facing significant challenges, some even worse than that of the U.S. This situation raises concerns about who will ultimately bear the consequences of these economic dynamics.
They do say gold will crash in a liquidity crunch However, many of those holding precious metals are preparing for such an event. So they are unlikely to be forced sellers. The paper market would tank and hopefully collapse.
People often overlook the value of financial advisors until they experience the downside of emotional decision-making. I recall a few summers ago, after a difficult divorce, when I needed help reviving my struggling business. I did some research and found a licensed advisor who worked diligently to grow my reserves, even amid inflation. As a result, my reserves grew from $285k to around $720k.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advisor? I'll be happy to use some help.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
Walking in wilderness for 2 years, and he finally made it to his destination.
Behind the paywall.😭
Clever, true and as is the case whenever channels grow from our very intentional and time costly support and then do this, unfortunate.
@@glitterandsudsasmr7130just ask the champion of all losers, onlyfans subscribers. After trump became president, it's like all the losers of the world relized just how many of them there were and collectively decided to ruin everything.
We should have known the long voyage would eventually peter out
Now we have to pay to hear a grown man have a mental breakdown when Trump win
@@n0rton of course you like trump. Only someone like that is dumb enough to pay
Still hasn't found his way out the wilderness.
Are to a good barber
He's touching grass tho.
you say it like it's a bad thing
Right...could he just be lost?
@@marioman890
@alfreddunn03
2 hours ago
Still hasn't found his way out the wilderness
The avg. American is having a tough time, I know I am not alone. There are others in same position as me. By certain statistics: 22% of americans have no retirement savings. 64% are worried that they will not have money in latter years while 47% of adults who are not yet retired think they have to work part-time in retirement. How can I best grow the 120k I have saved so far for retirement which has depleted over the years?
Think about actions you’re taking that might be harming you such as carrying over credit card debt each month.
I agree with the reply above. I also think you should think about steps you can take to start. Start somewhere. Anything is better than being frozen even.
In my opinion, create a budget including income and expenses, do this with a financial advisor.
The decision on when to pick an advisor is a very personal one. I take guidance from ‘ Monica Mary Strigle ‘ to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.
In retirement red zone, if you haven’t saved enough, cut expense. Don’t celebrate and buy a car when you get a promotion. Use science and math when it comes to money, sock away more money.
Can't you just advertise manscaping like everyone else on TH-cam?
What, are you telling me you don't want to add another Patreon subscription on top of the other 243 you're supposed to already have? Man man, that's only 2usd times 244. You don't have a spare 500 bucks at the end of the month buddy? I think you should consider investing on stock to earn good money
@@GreenDavis-s9l exactly! best advice so far......
personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.
@@SamuelTimothy-ey9tr this is huge! your advisor must be grade A, mind sharing more info please? in dire need of proper asset allocation
@@AmandaRenee-z8h *Layan Talia Chokr* . Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Patreon members will be notified first if nuclear war breaks out.....
when
@@P51tomorow, trust me
@@MrGreenTabasco i mean WHEN the nukes fly--not IF
got popular enough to start grifting his rambling, pfft.
Just be like everyone else and say it in 10 day..when it doesn’t happen just keep pushing it back you will eventually be right
Why cant you advertise Raid Shadow Legends like a normal youtuber
Or Hello Fresh! 😆
Having said that Ground News would be a natural fit. It seems to work for Perun and Ryan McBeth.
Maybe Better Help so we can seek out of psychological help after Peter gives us a reality check
Doing that would make his mandatory in-video plug longer than his actual video.
LOL
Or Nord VPN.
Invest judiciously, keep a stop loss figure. Shuffle between debt and equity wherever the ratio goes too off your target. As for the target, I recommend a Ratio like this Debt % should be equal to your age in years. If you are 20, debt is 20%, reset in equity. If the market falls or rises drastically, your debt % will change, which you should rebalance to 20% and bring back equity to 80%. Thus you would have bought low or booked profit depending on if it was a crash or a bull run.
Starting early is simply the best way of getting ahead to build wealth , investing remains a priority . I learnt from my last year's experience , I am able to build a suitable life because I invested early ahead this time .
I totally agree; I am 66 years old, recently retired, with approximately $1.2 million in external retirement funds. I am debt free and have very little money in retirement funds compared to the total value of my portfolio over the past three years. To be honest, I didn't do all this alone, but with the help of a financial advisor. Having one is currently the best way to trade in the stock market, especially for people nearing retirement.
Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with? I've wanted to make this switch for a very long time now, but I've been very hesitant about. I'll appreciate any recommendation.
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Sorry peter, can't pay for both your onlyfans and your youtube
if that onlyfans fails the lights in the eurozone go out before the end of this decade
@@JohnHarris-vh9ng Yall broke because this live Peter Grilling is going to be hilarious, asking him questions live and then getting on his head? I'm down
My questions why do you think Euro zone gonna collapse?
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2024. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ for about two years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. and I conducted thorough research on her credentials before scheduling a call with her. Based on her résumé, she appears to possess a high level of proficiency, and I am grateful for the opportunity to speak with her.
I can't do another subscription
Then stick with the freebies. But Peter offers insights you don’t get on any of your other subscriptions. So why don’t you cancel some of those and have some real water cooler or cocktail party tidbits that make you seem to be in the know!😊
Save your money
Nobody cares.
YouthTube isn't free.
It robs me of $50/hr, one way or another, while I watch it, so I keep it to less than hour per day.
15 unfinished projects here.
@@waynemasters8673 wtf kind of sigma grind are you on XD
If everyone complaining would listen at least the 1:37 mark they’d realize he’s still keeping the videos free they just won’t get all the extra stuff.
But at a delay. I guess depends on the delay. If it's a week later the information is more or less useless/outdated.
Nah, let them stress 🤦
We’re not here for truth, we’re here for pointed opinions!
I made it a couple of seconds past 1:37… and then it was f this guy.. I thought half of what he was saying was total rubbish bs.
Well shit I'm too poor to stay informed now...
You are totally misinformed. All Patreon membership gets you is the early access. All of his videos will be released as usual; the Patreon gets a bragging right about the "I heard it first" kind of thing.
@lapprentice I was just being funny buddy...
@@GohPhuckyoselph lol. Sorry. I didn't realize it was a sarcastic comment. LoL. Now you said it. Saying your comments in sarcastic voice sounds funny as hell. 🤣
@lapprentice no biggie no one has invented a sarcasm font yet.
/s
"I have $30k in credit card debt, but its fine because my neighbor has $100k."
When it comes to competing with your neighbour for a new loan, or who is better off after making proportional debt repayments, then yes, that logic works fine.
@@Domesticated_Ape only if the poster has lower debt to income.
@@brucenorman8904 indeed
Hahah old Soviet style jokes
Credit card debt is not the same as national debt. Americans are so idiotic.
Thanks!
Can't you just advertise manscaping like everyone else on TH-cam?
We don't have money! 😭
What, are you telling me you don't want to add another Patreon subscription on top of the other 243 you're supposed to already have? Man man, that's only 2usd times 244. You don't have a spare 500 bucks at the end of the month buddy? Pick yourself up the bootstraps will you? Maybe hit the pavement and hand out some of those resumes!
They do like to advertise manscaping.
😂
What is the problem ? We just will get a lot of information a little delayed.
Doesn't make that huge a difference if Peter talks about a problem that will be there for the next decades or if Peter speaks about it one month later....
@mysterioanonymous3206 "supposed to have". Noone is making you sub to any of this shit.
Sorry.... I'm not paying.
Well, stick around and keep posting on the free stuff. Still helps the algorithm.
If everybody refuses to pay… Maybe he will switch back.
1:24 - you don’t have to.
@@chrism.1131 switch back to what? Nothing will change for freeloaders.
@@chaleej5571I pay YT Premium, sticking up for the corp that doesn’t pay the people that make their content enough to continue to do it is the problem.
Cant wait until Peter starts making wojack open mouthed facea for his thumbnails. His transition into a youtuber will be complete.
I’m kinda here for it
Nice, tactful critique....
(very diplomatic)
He needs to be up his "red circles with arrows pointing" game if he wants to be a real youtuber.
Yeah waiting for the vague click bait titles like "You won't believe this" or "it's finally happened" 🤣
Omfg bro you called it look at the next video it's firmly in that direction lol
The campaign shenanigans from both the red party and blue party is exactly what is stirring up this market panic. I have a little over 250k i wanted to put in the markets but I don’t know what direction to head now.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
My CFA *Julianne Iwersen-Niemann* a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Just ran an online search on her name and came across her websiite; pretty well educated. thank you for sharing.
Scam Alert 🚨🚨🚨
Yo Peter, Millennials are the largest generation in US history, you keep forgetting that.
The US debt has so many moving parts to it that it doesn't make sense to speak of it as single debt. And when you start to break it down into its individual parts, it begins to look a lot less scary.
Ok let's borrow another trillion dollar.
Sweet. I’ll be 75 when the shit hits the fan all the way. I was worried I wouldn’t experience that 🤦♂️
that's what I'm somewhat worried about , missing the show
😂😂😂
I pay for youtube premium, no pay wall please Peter. Have you seen what bread costs
Yes, .... but LIBS like Peter don't care.
Me too. It's so frustrating when they all do this, and then on top it all the in-video ads (those should be automatically skipped if premium member IMO).
Have you seen what bread costs? You expect multiple people to work together to entertain you for free?
@@janitorizamped Since YT premium pays creators directly, the point is he’s already paying.
@@katybroyles2805YT premium pays really badly. Patreon does better. Easy calculation.
Interest on the debt just passed that spent on defense. That is impactful
You pick the nicest spots sometimes.Thank you.😊
Quick google search showed that debt in relation to gdp is way lower in the eurozone than in the US. Am I missing something?
I think it depends on what you count as "debt." For example, California has around $550 billion or so of local & state debt. But if you add in unfunded liabilities like future pension payments it balloons to something like $1.6 trillion.
Peter Zeihan is just wrong on this one. Sometimes he doesn't let facts get in the way of a good story.
I came across your channel through this video-
case studies are incredibly valuable, and I'm eager
to see more in the future! Building wealth involves
establishing routines, like consistently setting aside
funds at regular intervals for smart investments.
You're correct. I think the smartest way to go is
to spread out your investments. By putting
your money into different asset classes like
bonds, real estate, and stocks from other
countries, you can lower the risk if one part of
the market goes bad.
That sounds like a good plan. In the past two
years, working closely with a financial market
specialist, I've builta six-figure diversified
stock portfolio. Now, I aim to diversify even
more this year.
Talking about a financial market specialist, do
you consider anyone worthy of
recommendations? I have about 10Ok to test
the waters now that large cap stocks are at a
discount
I operate a wide- range of Investments
with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice
is to get a professional who will help you, plan
and enhance your management skills. For the
record, working with Martha Ann Hammerton,
has been an amazing experience.
Same here!! Though I started with as low as $7,000 AUD
actually because it was my first time and it
was Successful., She is a great personality in
Australia 🇦🇺
The first time I heard the "debt doomsday" was when we had about $7 trillion debt, since then I have been hearing the same doomsday argument every few years. There is nothing hidden here, everybody knows we will keep borrowing money with neither the capability nor the intention to pay them back. At meantime, our debt did not collapse and the US dollar has been stable against most of the other currencies. There must be something else in play.
Recently we printed lots of money and caused high inflation, however the inflation inflated our GDP as well, since every product and every service become more expensive, hence the same economic transaction will contribute more to the GDP. Even though the debt to GDP ratio has grown to 130%, our GDP has also grown to an impressive 27 trillions, much larger than the next contender China with $18 trillions. It seems the dominant economic power increases the lenders' debt tolerance.
Or maybe for a consumer based economy, like US, the debt issue is lesser a problem than a producer based economy, like China. It is similar to the fact that US is less concerned about lending money to Ukraine to buy our weaponry, we know the money will come right back to our economy. Since we are the biggest consumer of the world products, other countries may be less concerned about lending money to us, since most of the money will go back to their economies through our spendings.
Or maybe the real problem is not the debt, but the interest. Everyone knows we cannot solve the debt problem because of its sheer size, but the interest payment is a much smaller problem, we may be able to reduce the interest payment pressure through measured inflation. Maybe the reason nobody cares about our debt is because when we talk about the debt problem what we really thinking subconsciously is the interest payment. Because the US debt is tradeable in the open market and also very liquid, you buy bond, you earn interests, you sell bond. As long as you can sell the bond and get your principle back, the only thing matters is if you can earn your interests back, why you care about how big the bond total market value is ?
China has a much large GDP PPP than US, however PPP has nothing to do with Debt problem, it is just that with smaller US GDP PPP we have less buying power inside US than otherwise, but that is the part of the deal of printing money and high debt we have made with ourselves.
The buying power is localized, that is the same haircut you get in China is much cheaper than in US, the same service will contribute to China GDP much less than contribute to US GDP. This discrepancy feels artificial and does not make sense. Same thing happens in many other less advanced countries as well, which gives many American retirees a very good deal if they so choose to live in those places, everything is cheaper. This buying power difference reflects the collective preference of living in one place over the others, so it in fact does reflect the real value. If China is a paradise and everyone want to migrate there, getting a haircut in a paradise provides a much higher value than getting the same haircut in a slum.
To keep US dollar strong against other currencies, US needs to maintain its economical super power position where most people want to migrate to. At the same time, an economical super power will increase people's tolerance to its bad economic behaviors, like higher debt and money printing.
You have a good point, especially your last arguments.
However, you need to understand though, there is no perfect solution, only trade-off.
The U.S can only maintain economic superpower by importing more people and capital-flight.
However, you get both of the extremes.
1. The illegal immigrants that flood to U.S will help building this country, but most-likely will drive down wages due to more competitions (supply and demand 101).
2. The capital-flight from others countries are usually from rich-elites. Of course not all of them are bad actors... But at the very least, they don't view America as their homelands nor care about working-class tbh.
They view the U.S as "free and easier to exploit". Which i believe they will gladly exploit the system and enrich themselves even more.
At the end of the day, you can only choose one. The U.S and its culture remain hegemonic in the world.
But the demographic , the people won't be the same as 1900s. In fact, it will be opposite.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises.
Peter. We love you. Thanks for being the smartest person I know and giving yourself to the “ Little People “ of America.
The best combination of a geopolitics commentary and a nature documentary on YT to the date.
This sounded like an endorsement for kicking down the can...
This comment sounded like you didn't listen to the video all the way through. He just said '30 years to a Japan style problem.' That doesn't endorse kicking the can down the road.
@@ScooterOnHisWay2024 To a politician's ears, it certainly does.
Not an endorsement so much as an acknowledgement that others have already gone where we're going, with less wiggle room to work with, and it hasn't been the end of the world.
@@olivesama My father was with the occupation forces in 1945 Germany. I think for those Germans who had to endure, it seemed like the end of the world. So sure, life goes on but do we have to create a miserable environment for the guiltless to live thru? I wonder.
@@olivesamaJapan is NOT the United States in ANY way on the world stage….Peter is WRONG on this one
Math does not lie. The whole “everyone else is doing it” excuse does not work. We will reach a point shortly where we can’t afford the interest on our debt and people will look for ROI elsewhere
Wasn't the US debt to GDP ratio in the 40's roughly the same as it is now? What kind of math did they do to fix it then?
@@ThePorkchop1787a much higher tax rate and less spending on entitlements like welfare and snap
@@danielmcguire7344 So we have to wait for the baby boomers to hit the dirt, run a surplus and raise taxes?
@@danielmcguire7344 So we have to wait for the baby boomers to go, run a surplus and raise taxes?
@@ThePorkchop1787 Taxed top incomes at over ninety percent during Ike's administration for one thing.
The near future with AI, self-driving cars, humanoid robots, etc. I think it's hard to predict what our world will look like in 20-30 years.
At a minimum, Peter will still be lost in the woods.
Plot twist, PZ knows this and secretly goes to strategically placed underground bunkers across the country in preparation lol
….honestly, this is the first time I’ve ever considered paying for a TH-cam channel. I’m not yet. But first time I’ve ever considered it. Keep up the good work 👊
It's not going to hurt significantly. The US debt to GDP ratio isn't that high. Even if the US borrows all the money required to finance the interest (500-1000 billion per year) but otherwise balances the budget, the debt to gdp ratio falls quickly.
Im not paying.
I may support him and his team, I learn MUUCH more here than in school
Then he will stay homeless...
Okay
Me neither 🤷♂️
It's not compulsory only if you want to, I'm forking out for TH-cam premium so no subs from me, also being a recalcitrant wasteful Boomer living of the freebies (Despite having to pay proportionally high taxes on lower wages and high interest for my mortgage, up to 15%!, for over 40 years of my life, and having to bloody actually "go to work" for 48 hours a week minimum, it was such an easy blissful life)!?!
Peter’s version of good news: “when we finally get to hell, everyone else will be there already.”
So true!
Hit 100k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 17k in last month 2024
Wow that's huge, how do you make that
much monthly.
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional i am grateful to Michelle sule
Working with her has been a game-changer for my financial well-being. Her ability to simplify complex financial concepts and provide tailored solutions is commendable. Francine passion for her work shines through, making the financial planning process not only effective but also enjoyable..
that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 2 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.
It really helped trading with michelle sule stewart analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
thank you for keeping a free service i really enjoy your news thank you peter
Peter, I just joined the analyst tier. I read all your books. Interested now in your current take on Ukraine/Russia, Israel/rest of the world, US way forward. thx and keep on hiking.
Are you friggin' Moses, man. How are you going to be lost in the wilderness for 40 years?
I'm 71 i feel bad for the country im leaving my daughter we were the most selfish generation
Yep. Being selfish isn't the worst part. It's pretending like you weren't selfish or like the generation actually had it so rough.
Not selfish, but rather "misinformed" and lied to.
Baby boomers ( maybe gen xers too) will go down as the failed generation.
@@tallahassZExcuses, excuses if they weren't so selfish it wouldn't be so easy to lie to them. I've literally argued with boomers who think they shouldn't have to pay taxes for education because their children are adults. This isn't the product of lies it is a pathology.
Despicable, and then they have the gall complain about the new generations.
@@chickenfishhybrid44 we were the first generation who got the credit cards and we partied for 30 years
Patreon is the only thing that would make me hesitate to subscribe. Why not Substack? Or literally anything else?!
Yeah, Patreon is crap for watching on anything but a desktop.
Leave a roll of quarters on a Colorado mountain trail. PZ will find it eventually.
Patreon banned long standing ukrainian fundraising accounts when russia invaded. Patreon is garbage. They support russia.
Ya, you literally can not watch Patreon videos on a smart TV without using a computer.
Impressive that the network holds out there.
Zeihan is one of the few deserving of patrons
do you know if you confiscated 100% of the wealth of all US billionaires it would only make one interest payment on the US debt?
Maybe so, but it would still make me feel good!
@@Indrid__Cold then all the big companies, that hire millions of people who pay taxes, will go bankrupt.
You think those jobs will last after AI becomes a practical alternative to human workers?
Talk about cherry picked statistics. There are only 760 billionaires in the US. Why would anyone expect those 760 people to be enough to service the debt? Strawman much?
@@Indrid__Coldwhens that going to happen... so far AI is completely useless and makes more issues then it fixes.
The USA has really low taxes especially on wealth.
It is not just the spending, it is also the income.
There are plenty of taxes.
There are even more ways to spend the taxes.
When dollars are fake what’s the difference between 10,000 and 10 million actually nothing
Exactly
As long as the USD has the IRS, 2 fleets of nuclear carriers and 31 friends in NATO the USD is still gonna be worth something.
People have been saying the same thing since FDR gave the dollar a 40% hair cut in 1933
Do what you've got to do Peter. TY for the free content over the years Peter. Good luck with the channel. Maybe we can still see you as a guest on another channel every so often, so we don't forget all about you. That would be nice.
Love the backdrops. Brings back great memories with my rambling daughter.
Capital flight from China has been happening for quite a while (not in the future). The CCP tries to limit how much money people can take out, ... but people find a way. The smart ones see it coming too.
Real Estate on the west coast of the US one very good place for them to park their money.
Since when have the fiscal conservatives mattered? Reagan complained in 1964 that we had only balanced the budget 12 of the last 38 years. I think we might have had 3. Oh and as President he never did either.
Thanks Peter. I look forward to understanding your research approach.
Hey Zeihan and team! I really appreciate the focus on video based content.
This is how I consume my news as its easier to do while working. Signing up for Patreon now!
No. No. No.
The "national debt" isn't borrowed money that has to be paid back to anyone. It's the difference between all federal spending (into the economy) and what's been collected in federal taxes. That difference- all $35 trillion of it- is currency in circulation. Money in your wallet, in your savings, at the bottom of a lake, or stashed away by the trillions in offshore accounts. Deficit spending is a necessity in our modern monetary policy framework.
If the federal government taxed back 100% of what it spent into the economy, then nobody would have any money. If you think that's not true, then ask yourself where else it could come from, since the federal government is the sovereign issuer of its own currency. Taxation as revenue applies only to state and local government- users of currency- not the federal government.
Federal government funds and provisions itself through the creation of currency, and has no need to "borrow" the very thing only it has the power to create. It can't be in debt to itself, and the only debt it issues is in the form of US treasury bonds. While it does pay interest on T bills, it hasn't borrowed any money, and the federal government doesn't issue them to gain a source of spending. They're issued to keep the value of the dollar strong by giving investors (or China) a safe place to store some of their money.
The only danger to having too high of a "national debt" (too much spending) is inflation, but this doesn't just happen at some arbitrary number or ratio- Japan's national debt to GDP ratio had been above 200% for decades, and it hasn't experienced problematic inflation. Besides, there are ways to mitigate inflation when it's caused by too much currency in circulation (taxation). If maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar is the goal, then higher taxes (less income) don't matter, because fewer dollars can still buy the same amount of goods and services.
It's always interesting when people use pretzel logic or complex math applied to abstract models to explain why ACKtually, sovereign issuers of a currency ARE constrained by the same rules as a spendy teenager with a credit card- but that's like trying to argue that monopolists aren't price setters because they're constrained by competition. The policy framework is clear, and should be well understood, particularly by those working at the national and professional levels, but the politics of power can always be counted on to make sure we can't have an honest conversation about anything.
To correct Peter, average EU debt ratios have been somewhat stable/decreasing in europe for the past 10 years, there was a spike due to covid but despite that the ratios today are lower than they were 10 years ago, the US has had a 22% increase in the same time period.
In my country Portugal we actually had a 32% debt ratio reduction over the past 10 years, despite the covid spike and despite having a left socialist government during 8 of those years ( which is about the only positive thing i have to say about that government ).
While for the US it's not yet alarming having a debt ratio of 120%, it's concerning that the issue is not being addressed while there are upwards economic cycles, that's basic economics 101, lower the debt when economy is up and increase in times of recession ... you all have to thank dem/rep populist politicians for that ... and the people that vote for them.
Taxes are to low in the USA. Simple.
@@Nun195 Spending is too high. Even simpler.
yup, saying EU is in a worse place makes no sense. Plenty of European countries with under 50% debt and the same demographics as US.
It's annoying when Peter gets these basic facts wrong.
i dont think the euro zone will collapse. I think a stress event, or series of, will cause them to move more centrally and form a Federal Europe as a single country.
I dont think they could have done this with the UK as a member, we'd never have stood for it, but I can't think of a member country that has the power to stop it apart from Germany and France, and they are both too committed to it at this point
I'm sorry but i don't see that happing ever. The cultural differences are too vast between european countries, different languages in each memberstate won't make it easy neither. Most european people have national pride and i don't see us giving that away anytime soon. Germany just blocked an italian takeover of a german bank thus protecting their national interests, it's a pipedream and noting but talk.
Europe will devolve into border checkpoints and national currencies before it turns in the United States of Europe. Every little country there thinks they are the best and allow the others to tag along out of their magnanimity.
Poland, Hungary.
@ScottMarquardt-s7u Neither of them is in the Eurozone. The Eurozone could unite and leave the non-Euro countries as some form of affiliate.
@@saus9870 Hence why I feel the EU isn't gona be around for much longer
I can charge this subscription as an expense to my company, thereby reducing my income taxes. Im happy to contribute to the national debt by subscribing to Peter.
Damn, might be the first Patreon i pay for. I'll pay but only if you make one about why Chile is the greatest country of South America
Come on man, a patreon subscription? Why can’t you get a team going and get ads like the rest of the world? I won’t be going there and a lot of people won’t either which makes your move not powerful and something that will backlash.
You’re showing me that I’m less important then the 30 seconds you could spend to advertise Oakley or some random hiking company out there. 30 seconds…
@@let0atreides he only Patreon subscriptions I have are to support people doing great work that's highly niche, and which can only really exist that way. having said that, it's just a subscription service. If you like the product, why not pay for it? I'm going o stick with he delayed unpaid stuff, but I can see why some people subscribe and I'm also very aware their contributions subsidise what I get out of Peter. So thanks, subscribers, genuinely.
@@mr_willmedinayou are definitely not worth adding 30 seconds to the videos. Definitely not.
@@let0atreides Ive been subscribing to magazines since I was about 12, and that was a long, long time ago, so I'm ok with it. I think we went through a transition period in the internet where free because the default, but this was harmful to ourselves and the services we rely on.
@@let0atreidesNoone ever owes you free entertainment and everyone has a right to demand a certain return for it. If you dont agree, no sale. Simple as that. If you want welfare call up your local govt.
Thomas Massie is one of the very few voices of reason. We owe Kentucky our gratitude for electing him.
Yes, exactly…a rising star!
a service? these are 5 min pieces of entertainment
That's called a service. Do you not know what that word means?
@@janitorizamped He's point is it's not valuable as this guy is a grifter and he doesn't know what he's talking about.
How much time do you think it took him to read sources and analyze data so that he could summarize it? There is much more work behind these videos.
@@lynxlecher9547 that was not his point at all lmao, where do you rats come from?
@@janitorizamped Your girlfriend gives a good 5 minute service!
One of the smartest guys that manages to always get things wrong
I am a millionaire and I use credit cards constantly. I get 3 percent cash back. That works out to $1000s of dollars a year but never carry any ballance. I also have 100 percent protection against fraud. Other things like extended warranties and car rental insurance lots of different perks. Key point you must use responsibly.
Peter. I heard china is printing "extra" money. To the world bank, china printed 1 billion yuan as recorded. But china print 5× the 1 billion yuan with the same serial number. Some chinese are holding 3 '100 yuan' with the same serial number' n its not counterfeit. What would happen if the world bank find out..?😮😮
That is interesting. I'd want to see some real proof that this is happening, but if it is, it really should force international finance groups to downgrade a lot of assumptions about China.
I don't pay for infotainment. I'll stick with the free tier, if you don't mind.
"We're not going to be in Japan's situation for another thirty years..."
Great. Tell me Gen X won't get to retire without telling me that Gen X won't get to retire.
F*** it. I've already survived like a dozen end-of-the-world events so far. One of them is bound to take me out sometime. Then my problems will be over.
Amen.
I wish I had the finances to become a patreon but still appreciate the info! Although you didn't ask, one video I would love to see is a recap video where you list your hits and misses. More specifically, predictions you got right and wrong. Great channel!
as usual .. so good and insightful .. I feel calmer (and a tad smarter) now. much thanks
So…a subscription service at a time of inflation and higher food costs.
Sounds awesome.
Cope. The same info will still come out for free sounds like
No thanks!!! $$$$
Why are u even interested in geopolitics if u are so broke you can't afford food, why don't you try to influence what right in front of you instead of worrying about the world
Hey even Peter is feeling the pinch like the rest of us, those public speaking gigs must have dried up.
@chickenfishhybrid44 you really love his lies and copium 😂😂😂
Why pay taxes when they will always over spend?
Yeah, let's privatise the election system.
You're sounding like a billionaire.
Furthermore, why pay taxes. The Fed can print all the money required.
@@Ralph-i5m
The Chinese government is proof that printing money is definitely the best way to keep your country afloat.
Government's MO for the last 70-80 years: squeeze every penny, spend 150% of it, rack up debt, then demand even higher taxes.
Peter is secretly searching for DB Cooper.
Nah he's secretly one of the mole people that live in subterranean U.S. lol
Excellent info. Well presented too. Repeated listener
The national debt seems large but the fact that the 10-year bond has a yield so incredibly far before the Fed overnight rate shows you that there is a tremendous appetite for it. So the market says no, it's not a problem. Today.
Every other major country in the world has huge debt/ prints money. So, if the US goes, we all go.
If the US goes we all go anyway, even the stinking rich ones like Norway.
New System incoming......Old System has to fail 😩
Wasn't the US debt to GDP ratio in the 40's roughly the same as it is now? We've been here before and everything turned out fine
@@ThePorkchop1787That was in the middle of WW2. What happens when we go to war?
@@michaelfoulkes9502 Well they ended up going to war 5 years later in Korea and then 10 years after that in Vietnam. Tell me what happened?
No offense, but there isn't a shortage of people with opinions, some producing damn near documentaries on youtube for every current event.
If I can borrow 4 or 5 times my yearly income as a morgare, then why cant the US owe 1.5 X the yearly GDP? The US GDP being ca 20 T...whats the big deal? The fed just prints more cash...Warren Buffet said, we are in new teritory, just keep up consumption, work, produce, we dont know what it will lead to but it is working...save a bit, make more and let inflation kill the debt. Keep an eye on what you owe but dont panic.
The government revenues are not 100% of GDP, our economy. Our federal tax revenue in 2024 is ~$4.5 trillion. This is the total pie from which ~$1 trillion is now going to service the debt.
Assuming you meant that seriously... it's the difference between MICRO and MACRO economics. What works for a mortgage or a credit card debt is not always the same when you look at it on a nation-scale.
Mind you, your proposed solution is still exactly the right one (except for just printing more money. That has to be limited). As long as the US keeps producing and consuming, and as long as there is NO OTHER OPTION to the rest of the planet propping up the US economy... there is theoretically no end to amount of debt we can sustain.
P-Zed always leaves me with a feeling of, Thanks for that, I think...🤔
I am glad that Peter Zeihan has admitted having a staff to help him. This explains how he has been able to successfully shift from simply discussing demographics to a wider range of topics.
Peter buddy just say it "pay me" it's ok we all know.
Is that a problem?
Do YOU work for free? Probably not. And at least Peter is keeping his promise of several years that his newsletter will always be free. Unless you want new, extra goodies, you don't need to shell out a dime.
What, no mention of LBJ and the Great Society?
Just a fancy sounding name for basic services most governments in developed nations provide to their citizens.
@@infidelheretic923 aren't most of these developed nations in large amounts of debt?
@@Blackjack2485 Bingo!
@@infidelheretic923 it never helped anyone…it just created more poor people and encouraged lazy butts to produce like rabbits
@@infidelheretic923Basic services whose costs have ballooned out of all proportion compared to when they were first introduced. The NHS in the UK is a splendid example. It cost the Treasury the inflation-adjusted equivalent of £11 billion in its first full year of operation in 1949-50. It will cost £192 billion in this financial year.
So we have a video about the national debt and all, ......and we ask for everyone to pay to hear about it.....WTF?!?!?!?
Early access. & member forum. …Everything else is the same. You’ll still see PZ next to a 🏔️ talking 🌏 just not “early”.
It was interesting watching you on TH-cam. Good luck with your new venture.
Peter just so you know. The modern economic system the US enjoys nowadays, meaning a non-convertible floating currency system, taxing doesnt raise money. The money spent by the government is just marked on computer screens at the FED on the directions of the US treasury. In reality taxing and government spending are two totally different operations that have no connection to one another. In other words to simplify, in the current system the government doesnt work anything like a household that needs to save in order to spend.
Yes, government spending creates money while government taxing destroys money.
In practice too much spending causes inflation. We saw this after the pandemic. The pandemic should have caused double-digit deflation, but the government sent multiple stimulus checks that were over $1,000 each plus lots of extra unemployment and other money out to the economy stopping the deflation. Next, when the velocity of the money dumped in the economy increased when stuff opened back up we got high inflation
The government is like a special black box where money spent increases the money supply and money brought in decreases it. The government can also spend money poorly or wisely as it gets first dibs on this newly created money (as it spends it first).
Poor quality government spending or spending too much both cause problems. Taxing too much or too little also cause problems.
@@dutchrjen
Yes lol.
Paraphrasing, stay in the middle, like Enduro (& the Buddha).
Avid youtube consumer here - many content providers add Patreon to their YT offerings, then minimize their TY offerings (Ryan McBeth comes to mind). That brings in cash, but ultimately erodes the YT exposure. I have unsubscribed from Ryan McBeth because there are only Patreon commercials now! yawn. Good luck with your subscription service
Patreon = echo chamber
I unsubscribed from Ryan McBeth because he couldn't decide if his channel was about geopolitics or himself.
@@cantrell0817 I like Ryan. But he's not important enough to me to support with money. Just with a YT like and a subscribe. There are different levels of support.
Raided what funds Peter? There are NO funds. Just the general kitty. And those expenses are not discretionary, the US must spend = the deficit will grow. Did you totally miss out on how Congress spends?
He was speaking in metaphor. That apparently went right over your head.
38% of the Federal budget is discretionary.
If America loose the reserve currency status they will have a major problem.
Not really. Reserve currency status comes with very strict limitations. If the USD wasn’t the reserve currency, the US government could do whatever they please with it.
@AngelEconomics yeah but the value of dollar would drop significantly and push prices of imports up a lot. The usa is the world's largest importer
At this point that's such a massive IF, that it's become a pipe dream
@@Chris-pq3wp world’s largest importer of what?
@@AngelEconomics goods from the rest of the world. Usa is reliant on a strong reserve dollar to maintain its standard of living and to create dollars without generating too much inflation. Other countries can't do that
I’ve been hearing for all of my adult life that the debt will destroy us. 25 years later it still hasn’t happened. But that doesn’t mean it won’t…..
I have been following you for years now. I am a poor and disabled American that is at least well informed... Every morning, I catch up with Geopolitics. I am worlds away from my peers in with my daily bits of geopolitical information and its accompanying accuracy...
Will I have to pay Patreon to still be with you?
That is...
If I wait for the regular TH-cam, will the videos already be days old by then?
Thank you to Zeihan and his people!
Money kills again
I agree
Is it money or the lack of competency when it’s comes to money management
History of currency debasement it becomes too appealing and popular. It takes awhile though.
I guess ad money and a full time job isnt enough. Greed always wins
Wanting everything free is also greedy.
@@mbak7801 dude gets paid already for recording on his 5 minutes break from his permanent vacation.
Greed? How so? If people will pay for it, good for him. I’ll guess you are a failure who has nothing and you think money should be taken from successful people and given to people like you. You want to take money that you didn’t earn. Taking what others earned because you’re a failure is far worse than greed.
@@themetalhead1463thats a whole lot of projection and assumptions for such a small statement. Rich people STAY rich by not paying money for things they can get for free and cheap. So maybe you can put that shoe on the other foot.
You may notice that Peter has never had ads on his content.
”The Eurozone more indebted than the US” Sure about that? Government debt in Europe is 89.9% of GDP in the euro area and 82.6% in the EU. Both are decreasing. In the US government debt is 110% and rising.
Not counting pensions and healthcare unfunded liabilities.
@@quartermaster1976True. The US system of letting the poor sick and elderly rot is much cheaper. And very Christian.
@@Tobias-ek6bg America stop being a Christian country a long time ago.
European are in a worse position with pensions, but they have been more financially conservative
Not compared to many other countries the u.s. still is very much a christian country, it's just declining a bit.@@Iamabot4708
About time my guy!
Pairing the Patreon announcement with a video about the economy... well done sir, well done 👏👏
The size of the federal government needs to be cut in half, at least in order to solve the debt problem. We cannot tax our way out of this.
This country functioned perfectly well and was able to win a world war, invent the nuclear bomb and go to the Moon with a much smaller federal government. There are millions of federal employees and that is just way too much. We can't afford it and that's why we have a massive debt.
If we needed this large of a government then the United States would have collapsed generations ago from having too small of a federal government. We did not collapse from having too small of a government, we became an economic powerhouse, wealthy and had a large middle class with a much smaller government.
You cannot convince me that we need to have a government anywhere near this large, or that we're better off because of it. I'm not sure why he didn't even mention that as being the problem.
Political position and reform which is what he avoids deliberately
Government debt is a lack of tax. It’s nothing to do with size of govt, that’s a different unrelated problem. If you want smaller govt debt, tax more (I.e. destroy more money from the system).
@CraigPerry Yeah no not quite. It's literally part 2. It's Government Budget - Tax Revenue. Lower the former or raise the latter you get the same effect.
@@buddermonger2000 no that’s deficit not debt. you can decrease government budget and still increase debt (if you’ve failed to tax enough money out of existence). P.s your reply was MIGHTY confident for being incorrect!
@CraigPerry It is the deficit, yes. That deficit requires payment via debt. So that's how you increase the debt.
In order to decrease the debt, you have to still shrink the government budget (but don't change taxes), so that you can run a surplus and pay down some of the principal.
Btw our current interest is greater than the military budget.
The Eurozone is relatively stable in the short to medium term, supported by strong core economies, the ECB's monetary policy, and fiscal tools like the ESM. However, long-term solvency will depend on how effectively it manages high debt levels, political cohesion, demographic changes, and external shocks. Enhanced fiscal integration and structural reforms, particularly in more vulnerable economies, are likely necessary to ensure long-term solvency.
If your girl KH gets in then YES. If the guy you and your NEOCON friends hate gets in, then NO.
I don't think the national debt matters, US has over 200 military bases worldwide and can do whatever they want.
Peter, you are amazing. You make me look at the world and politics in a totally different way and I love that. I will definitely be proud to join your patron, but I do have a suggestion. Why don't you keep that in house? Patron takes a cut of it and a pretty good cut.
One more question, have you ever done the Grand Canyon rim to rim?
The U.S. economy can actually get better if only the govt can start making better decisions for the sake of it's citizens, cos' they've really made life more difficult for its residents. Hyperinflation has left the less haves bearing the brunt of the burden. Its already eating into my entire $620k retirement portfolio. Like where else can we invest our money with less risks?
Just get a financial planner straight up! personally, I would invest in etf and also love investing in individual stocks. yes it’s riskier but I'm comfortable in my financial environment.
I agree. Exactly why I now work with one. A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their emotions, no offense. I remember some years back, during the covid-outbreak, I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence researched for advisors and thankfully came across one with grit. As of today, my cash reserve has yielded from $350k to nearly $1m
@@mikegarvey17Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.
I work with *Izella Annette Anderson* as my fiduciary advisor. Simply look up the name. You would discover the information you needed to schedule an appointment.
Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I investigated her well before using her services. Considering her résumé, she appears competent.