Markets Have Flipped From Being All Good to All Bad, Says Oaktree's Marks
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 มิ.ย. 2024
- Oct.21 -- Howard Marks, co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, discusses what's driving investor sentiment, his feelings about the markets, the market cycle, value investing, his emerging markets strategy, central bank normalization, the opportunities he sees in Asia, politics in the U.S. and his outlook for markets. He speaks exclusively on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open."
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I've done well, now im happy with my gains I've flipped to cash for now, I'm not greedy.
Your papers will be worthles in the upcomming era, but good luck anyway
@@Marek-gn9jn upcoming era? Care to elaborate?
@@Marek-gn9jn Yea that new era will be central bank digital currencies where you go to your local bank and it's is pretty much automated. You deposit your checks and fiat in exhange for fedcoins. Other cryptos will be considered asset classes by that time.
I love reading these comments. It's amazing how many experts there are, and where did all these crystal balls suddenly come from? hahaha
When you are young and working you can afford to invest aggressively. When you are retired you should invest defensively or more like protecting your wealth with reasonable yearly dividends
no. that is what old people say
You should always be ready to lose money in stock's. That is why it is not where to put money for retirement. Just ask people who were prepared to retire in 2008, thinking they had a comfortable nest egg. My retirement is in annuities and I sleep well at night.
no. you should not lose money in stocks.
We are headed much lower. Silver lining people need to see this now and consider it on Nov 6th. Trump Dump upon us or Banktrump Donny Boy strikes again. People are saying he shorted market and is trying to screw up economy.
no one heading lower anytime soon.
I don't know at what point he pulled out of the market but he did miss the December correction with his allocation. Hopefully went back into equities at the end of the year.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero" Voltaire
oh yeaah... then buy bit coin and you will be fleeced again
there’s a frenchman that knew a few things
@@RichardG774 Fool. No one has ever lost their life savings when holding gold. Go to Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
@@catotheelder9524 Yes they did, because they were robbed by mobsters and corrupt police. If you don't have rule of law you have nothing... That is why I also dislike with investors looking at emerging markets through numbers and thinking there is potential. I lived in an "emerging market" corrupt governments and poor infrastructure swallow money and leave you with nothing.
@@Joe-jc5ol I said when still HOLDING gold. Obviously gold is not immune to theft, I never said that.
Gold is sterile, but it has an important role as a (relatively) stable store of intrinsic value. I trust gold over the US dollar any day. The US dollar has lost over 90% of its value to inflation in the last century.
It shows that howard marks' fund is 72% invested in credit, what are the best ways to invest in credit like oaktree?
evadesc buy oak tree stock then
Me Howard Marks is saying the truth
Did the tweet about it yet?
Economists have predicted 7 of the last 4 recessions.
4 out of 7 ? Or its a riddle ?
+Hazel Somaya It's a satirical comment on the efficacy of economists.
so they have been right on all 4
@@nineofsevenmot.2987 thanks, but in that case I beg to differ. Economics is social science, and unlike exactitude of experimental results in time bound parameters of physical sciences, social sciences usually take inferences from past trends/results and superimpose new theories OR explain divergence in estimates, in light of new influences/emerging data.
Recently, David Stockman, when harassed repeatedly by anchors on fox channel regarding delays in his predicted 'crash' of stock markets, explained the divergence to QE and purchases in bonds by fed. Maybe he forgot to qualify his predictions like classical economists of past with the remark ''other things being Equal'' .
That's one way of looking at it.
Market timing is hard because you have to be right 2 or 3 times. First you have to get majority of money out to safter investments before the market crash. Second you have to get back in at some point in market as well again. Third when you get back in and invest money again you have to pick the right assets and stour classes
Good video, but one thing has really distracted me- what is that woman's accent? It's like British but with a southern slang
Dan Lawrence : she got Sydney mixed Asian English accent!
When you're one job is to have sight and help make decisions for investors but you can only use words like: maybe, not sure, no one can predict. This is what happens when capital management companies charge based only on portfolio value and bonuses from over-performance but take no penalties for losing client money.
They lose their own money as well (as it's usually a pooled investment). It's not possible to do well all the time, the point is they do better than people who do it themselves (who lose 95% of the time- even when the Markets are booming!).
They have to provide value for money like everyone else or they get fired!
Dangwei Zhao they wanna be responsible for success but blame the economy when it fails. You gotta self manage and get out before bear market sets in.
His job is not to invest by predicting, he invests on price and expected risk adjusted return...
What caused it? RISING INTEREST RATES.
Like this guy, I must be a Marksist...
Lovely interviewer, even if she did say "where are we at" (Haidi Lun?)
This gal is a stud.
Bubble economics. The fed stopped refueling the bubble with low rates to no rates.
fed will be history soon
Richard Nderitu Argentina.
I also think as you, Howard Marks, the market looks like either makes a quick climb and the decline follows gradually in waves. A sharp decline- waterfall type - may happen if the international situation sours drastically given a worsening of the larger picture. Optimism may disappear when peace is under threat and the political environment is already muddying as USA leadership is no more adequately stands in support of law and order around the world. Challenging problems and lawlessness is rising... like cyberspace political interference in elections (Russia, etc.)and the killing of Saudi Arabian news reporter residing in the USA killed in Turkey apparently by the direction of Saudi Prince.
john jay Is a Zionist scum bag.
It will be enough if USA manages law & order situation at home and forget about policing the world, who anyway have not voted President Trump to power. He would gather more votes if he can make streets safer to walk, at least during the daytime in America.
Life is good... it is just mid term FAKE manipulations ...
Too big to fail banks is not resolved yet. I am not sure where his confidence is coming from.
Trees dont grow skies
What's that means?
Deepak Jindal He said they don’t grow to the sky. Meaning they don’t go up forever (as an analogy to markets).
She asked the Sydney (the scomo) view of the world, everything is beautiful everything is good, everything goes up, right. He thinks it's nearing the end, think tough.think with your head. 2008, 2000, 1992 or 1987 will come again.
Wow.
1:37 "In the investment business there is no such thing as certainty"
Literally so many of these people cry “the sky is falling” when it’s going down, and spew even more fear.
If you buy unloved stocks, how about GE, Sears, Deutche?????
!!!!! Junk is junk.
It was a bubble. No recovery.
These comments are a bubble
why? accd to Soros? bah humbug
I personally like him but how can you said were are in a 8th inning and he say he doesn't see a recession coming lmao.
Predictions for years,....like all doom and gloomers.....we never know when. He doesn't know, no one knows....but when earnings don't produce continued uptrend, then look down....
Ok, such insight now I know how to make a million.
Give us 2/20 We could call for caution forever too Howard Marks 😉
What’s this guy is saying is that Fed doesn’t have a clue what to do. We are screwed
the FED knows its Power is over, thrashing about... checkmated!!
They know what is happening, but they don't know what to do about it. Since their narrow economical ideology does not allow them to think outside that box.
Can the U.S Print themselves out of debt?
Colin Mahoney can chickens fly?
Jorge Gomez
Yes Chicken can fly!
But Ole Toxic Donnie and the Repugnant party are like dead chickens, they just lie around and pollute the environment!
thanks some time hold cycle value investing
He's been defensive for a few years now....and missed out on the greatest bull market to date...sounds like great advice from a permabear that's finally catching a break.
hahah......"Strong domestic narratives get chucked out the window." a quintessentially Australian comment.
High Bid on silver $16.29 What the hell just happened there!!!!
I hope that's accurate. I'll make a killing in my portfolio if that's the case.
Probably get into high 13s for a short time...just guessing.
Everyone is running for gold and silver, go look at Jim Rogers video
manipulation,
Even if the trade wars stalled it wouldn't make the economy better. Raising rates and QE are the cause of a major collapse. The Fed cannot control shadow banking and the derivatives market is unknown since its OTC. The next collapse will be corporate debt.
Nobody should be surprised at fed rate raise. We all knew this.
It will all be sorted out with more debt, more debt, more debt; money printing, money printing,money printing. It keeps working, pushing up asset prices, making life for younger people unbearably expensive, but the "hard working, non-privileged old" get stonkingly rich for doing nothing. What's the worry?
.....when markets are rigged and corrupted , small and large investors lose confidence and trust in the system and cut their losses , quit and get out . Trust , when lost is difficult to restore and at the moment investors trust and confidence is at a loŵ ebb and the global markets performance are reflecting this .
trees don't grow to the sky.
Legalized gambling!
How were people conned into believing this is good for a nation's economy?
Better than loosing money in casinos. Purchasing share in a company makes you a partner in its growth and a share in its profits. You are free from hassles of incorporation, documentation, surveys, dealing with banks, labour unions, sourcing supplies or marketing finished products. Companies engage experts for these jobs. Investing in bluechip stocks is advisable even at a higher price, because these companies are under constant watch by funds and institutional investors.
That was pretty good.
He spent 19 minutes saying absolutely nothing. This guy is a professional? I'd fire him immediately.
lol Look at his returns..... bad idea to fire him. Are you stupid. He’s not going to tell the world what he is doing or what is driving his investment decisions right now.
he’s out to sell the idea of a controled demolition of this market.
Not going to cash???? His mistake. A recession is comming... he doesnt get it. Interest rate is going up
1999 was the Russian bond collapse which cascaded throughout Eastern European countries and affected investors who had thought they minimized risks by dividing their foreign bond portfolio between the bonds of several countries only to find they were not statistically independent but were indeed correlated hence they all collapsed together. A bit strange for this "expert" to tout 1999 as a bad year for stocks though of course a bond collapse would trigger a selloff of equities to rebalance portfolios. As to the morons claiming Trump has bolstered the market, he's deregulated the market and imposed tariffs, these are all measures that set up the economy for an eventual collapse to be more spectacular rather than mitigated, butt allow investors hence the wealthy to extract wealth from the economy. Tariffs in themselves historically result in 18 jobs lost over the long run for every single job it saves, sure you can claim he's saved jobs but an economist would realize that overall it's along term loss of jobs. All that Trump has done is allow billionaires to tap the economy and set up everyone else to pay for it in the future. In truth, collapses are sudden, steep and short lived while growth occurs over long periods and at a low but geometric rate. You need to keep your portfolio balanced to take advantage of the collapses and at least participate in the growth.
You are very wise man!
What's with buddy's attitude? He seems irritated by her asking common sense questions. He really succumbed to his emotions, so to speak. It's funny he mentioned it was a faulty means of investing, the very demeanor he displayed. I would fire his ass in a heartbeat.
You would fire the guy whose Oaktree Capital Management has an average gain of 19% over 22 years? Besides, he's talking about succumbing to emotions when dealing with investments which he obviously hasn't. Go ahead and fire him, because everyone else would love to get a chance to hire him.
Im glad i handle my own money, and its not with guys like this. All they care about is them getting a fat bonus
This guy is going back and forth. Good times then he said bad time in the market?
Pay me to say the sky is falling! I will say anything for the right amount
that sounds like trump talking.
Well no I was trying to sound like Obama, you know Obama is claiming credit for economic up turn so ya
So the economy was in decline until he left office?
me too, my friend!
Gaius Scipio I’m saying Obama claim that the economy will increase 1.9% saying it won’t reach 2% from his lips, I’m willing to allow him to have 2% of economic growth even though it was in in decline before trump and I blame trump for 5% economic growth and if you know anything about math you won’t know that the percentage of economic growth is exponential meaning that every percentage is a hell of a lot harder to achieve than the percentage before it. Trump rumored he just may be able to achieve 7% before the end of his first term
No sht Sherlock
Another money changer churning clients’ money to generate fees.
This guy's trolling the fck out the audience. In may everyone of these "experts" were saying the fundamentals are strong the market is strong.
Good ole Howard Marks trying to.time the market with other peoples money. HE like all of the other talking heads have no idea where thw market is going up, down, sideways. NO ONE KNOWS!! Get your money in in self directed s and p index ETFs and call it a day!!! Stop losing your money to these fools in dancing the market and paying their fees!!!
Very poor interviewer. Howards is often irritated by irrelevant questions.
GOP is led by a serial banktrumper who declared Banktrumpcy at least 6 times , GOP party in White House for 8 of last 9 recessions. What could go wrong , LMFAO..
The market is amazing and better than yesterday and my money is on next year is better than today this guy doesn’t know shit
Kevin Smith thank god for smart people like you to guide us!
Kevin Smith - You are a knuckle dragging numb nuts.
Bitcoinnnnn
It's all coming together
A new tool for the young and dumb to throw their money away. Yup, yup, yup. LOL
@@dallastaylor5479 Haha you are a fool screen shot this and look at it one year from now and laugh at yourself
BITCONEEEEEEEEEEEEECT
BITCOIN IS DEAD!!!!
It seems that female host doesn’t have enough knowledge to ask questions!
I'm sorry but what drugs is this guy on?
AltCoinCollege too much dollars
Judaism.... :)
Lol he has pulled his client money out of stocks and they are missing out on huge gains, great job money man! You are clueless. You cant beat market index funds and he knows it!! This guy is toxic, stay away. HE TALKS BUT "SAYS NOTHING"... YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!