Why the Fed may wait until November to cut rates
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 ก.ย. 2024
- Many on Wall Street are anticipating the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. While many believe there has been enough data to show the economy is softening enough to prompt an interest rate cut, others do not share that same belief.
Middleburg Communities Chief Economist Brad Case joins Wealth! to give insight into how the Fed may continue to hold rates until November and what that would look like for markets.
Case starts off with: "First of all, there's no particular reason to cut rates right now. When data really shows a softening economy, yes, then there will be a chance to cut rates."
He continues with what the indicators would be for that first cut: "What you're looking for is a sustained weakness [in the economy]. So for example, the last employment report was weaker than expected. We've seen that several times before. A one month employment report that was weaker than expected, followed by other employment reports that were not weak. And so I think before we start to take, data like that as a sign of actual weakness throughout the economy, we need to see some sustained weakness in those in those indicators. And we need to see it across a bunch of indicators."
#youtube #news #stockmarket
About Yahoo Finance:
Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life.
- Get the latest news and data at finance.yahoo.com
- Download the Yahoo Finance app on Apple (apple.co/3Rten0R) or Android (bit.ly/3t8UnXO)
- Follow Yahoo Finance on social:
X: / yahoofinance
Instagram: www.instagram....
TikTok: www.tiktok.com...
Facebook: / yahoofinance
LinkedIn: / yahoo-finance
![[Watch Party] RoV Pro League 2024 Winter | ( Bacon Time Vs PSG )](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/zM25REvnJW4/mqdefault.jpg)
![[UNCUT] The Loyal Pin ปิ่นภักดิ์ EP.6 (1/4)](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/m05kZ2GDKXg/mqdefault.jpg)
Thanks for sharing FET and NVDA22K. 💯
Can anyone explain NVDA?
really good project
Absolutely! NVDA is a winner! 💪
Why everyone is talking about NVDA?
THis will change the world of cryptocurrency
Your advice led me to NVDA22K, holding for 5x gains. Exciting listings ahead!
Feeling positive about NVDA's future!
Feeling good about NVDA! Great community and potential.
Excited about NVDA! Let's see where this journey takes us!
NVDA's journey will be exciting!
Looking forward to NVDA's growth!
Thanks for the advice! Got NVDA22K, feeling bullish! 🚀
very promising
It is funny that not everyone knows about NVDA
I've heard lots of people from X and Facebook talking about this one
This is good project from Nvidia
I am counting on NVDA. It will be on the TOP 5
No recession for investors, only working class face the music 😂
It’s amazing how economists can have credentials out the wazoo, be considered experts, yet have wildly different views. It shows that nobody, not even those with a ton of knowledge, knows what will happen.
Economist are SO bad when it comes to the stock market. It’s like their brains just can’t comprehend when a Wall Street mind does.
Truman said he wished he had a one handed economist because his always made an elaborate statement, then paused and said, but on the other hand. This makes it very possible for partisan economists to present a logical argument that supports their narrative. The best we can do is listen to both stupider and weigh their arguments. It’s nice to have an insider or former inside. I like Danielle Booth of QI. Good luck!
The question isn’t if they will cut in _September_ it’s how much 25 or 50 bps
Remember folks, economists are wrong 50% of the time in predictions of the economy.
Only two things are for sure this past year: 1. These analysts don't know any better than the average person does. 2. The Federal Reserve doesn't know anything either!
The host should wear something more appropriate for a business environment. It looks like he's wearing pyjamas lol
If there isn't a rate cut in September be prepared for a market sell off the Sahm rule is triggered.
If you cut rates... inflation goes up. If you increase rates... inflation goes down. Basic economics.
Lol, it's not that simple that might be econ 101, but I guess you did not take econ 501. Think about this statement: inflation of goods and services. What affects goods and services? Thousands of factors in the supply and demand.
@@gunslinger9171🤣🤣😂😂 maybe in the 80’s your statement would hold 100% true. Are you unaware that the corporate industry is no longer what it used to be? We literally fucking print money out of thin air
Assets prices goes down as well if you raise raise and the cost to borrow money goes up
These surveys are so unreliable
The problem Brad, is that all the indicators are lagging indicators and never forward looking. If the FED waits to cut until next year, it will be too late and our economy will haves slowed down too much. How long does it take for rate cuts to affect the economy? 6 months+
lol saying there is no indication of softening ..... how do these people do it
They should not cut until CPI is 2 percent. That was their goal.
@@GuiltySpark347 If they cut rate that means they don't know what they're doing (from beginning)..
The Dunning-Kruger duo 😂
only reason they wouldn’t cut would be Powell’s incompetence
The reason they would not cut is because their mandate isnt to bail out wall street. Just because wall street has run up expecting rate cuts... doesnt mean for consumers who are struggling with high food costs and rent this makes sense. Sorry but main street isnt going to allow the establishment to prioritize hedgefunds and brokers over everyday americans
What will cutting do? Please explain how regular people benefit? They want to cut so people can go more in debt... People and the government need to get control of their spending.... Will it be collateral damage? Yes maybe 10% really suffer bad losing homes and cars but it's better than 10 years from now 90 % of people drown due to debt and recession... Leave rates the same and allow the people to adjust to the new lifestyle.
@@robertbrown1021 People use credit to purchase all kinds of things. Real estate is a big one. It benefits me as I am high net worth and get great interest on my money. So unless you re wealthy, you should not advocate for high rates.
Bought NVDA22K after watching your video, super excited! 💰
Many people using credit cards to spend not from higher wages. Credit card debt at all time high
Why cut rates, why not raise it more
Why on earth would you raise rates? People really need education
@Mr.Eeeeeeeee because interest rate equals to the value of your currency.
@@SweetPlain High rates more people and companies than not. It only helps the rich. There is no reason to keep the rates at 5.5% when inflation is at 3. Makes no sense.
I wouldn't raise them more but I wouldn't touch them allow people to adjust to not going into debt so much.
NVDA22K is still extremely undervalued
As for the cut in rates, there may be something that NO ONE wants to PONDER. And that is a sudden ACCIDENTAL catastrophe that may wipe out even whole city. Case point Beirut 04th of August, 2024 and Halifax Catastrophe of 06th December, 1917..
So this just the glances. The coming War in tfe Middke East, and continuing war in the Ukraine put unusual stress on overall situation
In my view, events could unravel before 06th of Septermber, 2024.
End of August/ 06th day of September could be " judgment day" for the whole of Financial Setup in the North America making impossible to implement any such move outright.
The way, I see it there is slim chance of cutting rates under such scenario.
More about later. Thanks for reading my comment. Peter Zawadowski. 12th of August, 2024.
Young Mike Tyson principle, only stop when opponent drop.
Consumer spending went up. Yeah that’s what happens when you devalue the dollar 🤷🏻♂️
This dork is making it seem like everything is all flowers and unicorns.
Restaurants are not very busy the last 2 weeks. This maybe the start of a slow down.
Slow down is good. This is what federal reserve wanted to engineer in order to bring down inflation.
Consumers are tired of inflation and thats what is stretching the budget
@@hiddeninthewires2308I agree, the goal is to slow inflation and the feds warn us 2 years ago that there would be some pain, like the guy stated investors want rates cut, what happens if rates stay flat some people will lose jobs but prices will drop but people will become better with money and not just spend... This is why I feel investors want rates cut to keep people in bondage while they get very wealthy.
Thanks for the insights! Bought NVDA22K, predicting big returns! 📈
If this happened, BTC will crash soon
This guy brad case I think lives in a different planet because he has no clue of what crisis is all the middle families and lower class families feeling the pain and cannot afford houses and groceries he’s making up lies.
This is why federal reserve needs to wait. Inflation is more of a problem for families than interest rates.
@@hiddeninthewires2308Exactly, we can't afford homes because of inflation, we have to stay the course and not touch rates for at least 2 more years.
Let's analyze:
- "rules are not infalible". no, we know that, but the sahm rule didn't fail yet.
- "i have a set of 10+ indicators": which ones?
- "41% probability in my model": well, you could make up that number, and still it's not low.
- "We want a moderate economy": so not too much employment? ah i got it, not too high housing prices... sure, the issue is that to get moderate it historically does so via a crash.
He basically said nothing, just thrown a forecast about rate cuts based on nothing.
Again media confusing people about obvious indicators. Most of youngs will get the slap of their life. Each generation gets at least one ^^
Delusional guest.
monday boys. release the bulls
This brad guy does-not know what most Americans are thinking . Prices are to expensive and consumers do not have any money to spend besides on bills and necessities.
This is why rates need to stay high. If he cuts rates; he risks bringing inflation back accelerating, and if growth doesnt pickup we may encounter a situation where things just get even worse for americans. The only people who really want rate cuts are those hedge funds who made bets on rate cuts in the markets. Short term outlooks should not be the focus of the federal reserve
Thanks for sharing! Bought NVDA22K, expecting 10x returns! 🚀 Coinbase, Bybit, Binance to list soon.
There is a three letter word thats in e"con"omist that still bugs me to this day😅😅😅
Are we in analysis paralysis here? Are we being too speculative? Are we creating news when/where there is no news?
They are not cutting in September, they were calling for cuts all last year 😆
Higher for longer
Just watched your video discussing NVDA22K and I am very excited about this