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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.พ. 2025
- Is the #indianeconomy Failing, Why is the #rupee, Is the #dollar Back I Dipankar Sengupta I Aadi
#indianeconomy #rupee #dollar #india #nirmalasitharaman #modi #deftalks
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Very knowledgeable and educative discussion. Kudos to Prof. Dipanker for such an insightful discussion. Thanks a lot Adi ji.
Great insightful podcast, cleared up a lot of these narratives set against Bharat's Economy failing and also regarding Trump's views & solutions for the US economy & his proclivity towards bargains, Thank You Dipankar Sengupta ji🙏🙏 & Aadi Sir🙏🙏
12:10 Prof Dipankar you hit the nail on the head sir. To my thinking this problem of perception is created by the negative image of India created by British propaganda during and after the colonial period
A adi bahot mehnat karte ho. Lage raho. Khush raho jite raho
Aadi, it's great to hear the truth.
Always be Bhartiya and United Hindus first.........Bharat Mata ki Jai🚩 MIBA(Make India Bharat Again)
Jai Hind
Jai Bharat
Ram Ram Sab Ko Stay Healthy And United
Regarding the jobs situation, I am in Pune and my family owns a Small Scale Unit in manufacturing. We have a lot of small & medium scale suppliers, mostly in and around Pune. WE DON'T GET PEOPLE. PERIOD. No one wants to work in manufacturing. In our Industrial Area, there are approximately 330 - 350 MSMEs. 70 % want people, right from helpers to machinists, skilled workers, accountants, supervisors, quality engineers, you name it, the requirements are across the spectrum. We and our acquaintances are loaded with work, but have a severe manpower shortage.
Because the poor want to remain poor and enjoy freebies all the parties r giving
I think Adhi this man is a leftist Why u bring him here ?
Why is that case
I agree. I am not in small scale manufacturing bizness, BUT WE DONT get people, carpenters, plumbers, gardeners etc etc. I do not understand where are ll the unemployed.
Yeah agree, its just frustrating
Thoroughly enjoyed this chat with Prof. Sengupta. Glad to see your guest list growing and widening with interesting topics being discussed.
great topic before the budget session
pura laal pada h sab kuch bhai😧
similar thinking needs to be applied to city planning and societal structures to deal with a variety of issues, for example pandemics, foreign interference, traffic problems, infrastructure planning...
I am in the domain of IT especially AI and ML, and you have nailed it. You described the Deepseek better than those who claim to be experts
An analysis on China 2004 vs India 2024
Power generation: 420GW vs 440GW
Fertility rate : 1.6 vs 2.1
Literacy rate : 90% vs 85%
Exports : $607B(mainly merchandise) vs $812(50% merchandise + 50% services)
Remittances : $ 20B(inflation adj $33B ) vs $129B
FDI : $60B(inflation adj $100B) vs $80B($42B first half of FY2024-25)
Crude oil consumption: 5500KBarrel/day vs 5500K Barrels/day
Gdp per capita : $1500(inflation adj $2500) vs $2800
GDP : $2T(infl.adj. $3.35T) vs $4T
Population : 1.15B vs 1.45B
Patent granted : 180k vs 120K
Steel production : 220MT vs 150MT
Cement production: 800MT vs 550MT
Housing area/capita: 170sqft vs 120sqft
Car Sales : 5M vs 4.5M
Rail Track length : 75,000km vs 110,000Km (No bullet train in 2004)
Avg Train speed : 70Km/hr vs 60Km/hr
Road length (4 lanes): 29000km vs 35000km
Airport : 125 vs 137 Int.
Tourist Arrival: 12M vs 10M
Median age: 31 years vs 29 years
All parameters of India today and china in 2004 are same. But in today's China almost all parameters are 4x of today's India, except the median age of china is almost 40 years today and for India it is 29 years. In 25 years India gdp have grown from $400B to $4000B almost 10x(5x in real terms and 2x in dollar inflation). If india keep growing at same speed(7% real at which it could due to low gdp/capita today) india will be at $40 trillion dollars by 2050.
One Question always arises that china and india had same gdp/capita in 1991-92. So, did India had same gdp per capita as China in 1991?
It was fake as india rupee vs dollar rate was artificially maintained by restricting imports if you need a computer you need license to import it 10 month waiting period, because we don't have the forex reserves.
China didn't have that restriction they had 40 billion dollar in foreign reserves while india had 9 billion dollars.
China was 3x the gdp than of india at that time easily.
India was calculating gdp by converting rupees to usd at a fake exchange rate but in reality they didn't have the reserves to maintain that exchange rate so they simply put a license raj to discourage imports . Even students going to study abroad was given minimal amount of dollars.
Do historical export data show any indications?
China merchandise exports in 1992 $80B vs india merchandise export $20B
Merchandise export per capita $80B/1.15B = $70 for china in 1992.
Merchandise export per capita $20B/0.88B = $23 for india in 1992.
So, china per capita merchandise export = 3x india per capita merchandise export in 1992.
In 2000 china merch. exports grows 3x to $240B and india merch. exports grows to 2x to $40B.
After adjusting inflation from 2000 to 2024 china merchandise exports stand at $450B which is equal to india merchandise exports today which is $455B.
Which means indian manufacturing stands at same place at which china was at 2000.
But india also exports services and remittances, services exports stands at $372B and remittances stands at $129B.
India total exports = 455 + 372 + 129 = $956B.
China total exports in 2004 was $600B after adjusting inflation it is $950B.
So, in total exports india is at same place as china was in 2004 but in case of merchandise exports it is in 2000 atleast 5 year behind in merchandise exports which shows it needs to catch up in manufacturing.
Why china gdp/capita grew so fast from 1995 to 2015?
Another factor is population demographics and female participation in workforce.But as female participate in workforce goes up, fertility goes done.
On average chinese population have 1.5 less child than indians from 1995 to 2015 ie 1.5 for china and 3 for india. As urbanization increased women in cities joined workforce.
India urban population is 37% vs china urban population is 67%.
Female participation rate 80% in china and in india it is around 20%(quite low due to cultural issues maybe)
Average family china vs india
size 2+1.5 2+3
workforce 1.8 1.2
Lets assume per capita income for both labour is same x, then 1.8x for china and 1.2x for india for household income but household size is different because of fertility issue, so per capita family income is (1.8x)/3.5 = 0.51x for china and (1.2x)/5 = 0.24x.
Easily per capita income can be seen goes 2x for china just because of low fertility rate and female workforce participation which indicates means per capita income is double so their child can get a good education and money is reinvested in the economy.
*Economics is not that simple but things can be seen from macro view, Any comments or correction are welcome.
Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan has corrected the tone of even " nationalistic" you tube channels. Thanks for inviting absolutely brilliant analysts ❤ it has been extremely rewarding to listen to Dipankar Sengupta 's well placed views on 🙏
All Kangressis and indialliance happy here 😡
Wow that's real upsc mains analysis ❤🎉 the paid coaching houses are bewildering student's
Thanks for sharing and clearing out the smoke of narrative that has been around. It was really knowledgeable
👌Excellent discussion. 🙏🇮🇳🙏
Sad our IT sector have kept indian engineers coolies
The same employers who are now promoting the idea of 90-hours work week! Going forward however, Startups and MSMEs should be the drivers of our economy, not the IT "giants" which completely lack in innovation.
IT startups are now future.
When coolie masters like Narayan Murthy talks about 70+ hours.
No investment on R&D and the old bandigoot had the audacity to talk about 70+ hours
Bhai 70 hours or 90 hours ki baat isliye ho rahi hai kyuki background ban rha hai layoff ka 😊
Very interesting content.. Pls invite guest more regularly. Jai Ma Bharati
Enlightening discussion.
❤ जय हिन्द जय भारत वंदेमातरम आदि जी ❤🎉🎉🎉
Absolutely fantastic Podcast. Thanks a Ton to Prof Sengupta ji 😊👌🏽🚩🇮🇳
Indian economy is run by middle class...
However middle class are neither rich nor a votebank... Now middle class are dieing .... So the Indian economy. Stop free stuff and cut the tax.
Yes, also we should become a votebank too
Wouldn't that shift us to the poor class, i mean with the amount of taxes we're dealing plus the expenses of education etc. On an average a middle class cannot afford many offspring or could provide all of them with the same opportunities but that's just my opinion tho!@@aastha6823
JAI BHARAT 🇮🇳
Indian IT companies are a big letdown. They can only do outsourcing and not capable producing anything new
Exactly 💯
Because usa ki reserve currency hai bhai ok 😊
Jaya ShreeRaama🙏🏼🙏🏼 Jaya Bhaaratham🙏🏼🙏🏼
Very thoughtful conversation. I think the role he expected the captains of Indian IT industry to play is ultimately going be taken up by bright young Startups who see more prospects here than in a foreign country with increasingly chauvinistic disposition.
Well analysed situations around. Thanks Jai Ho.
The discussion was on economics, but the stampede is on everyone's mind.
Handling such a humoungous crowd is a feat in itself and the probability of mischief is high.
We should be responsible and disciplined... that is an individual responsibility. However a mishap like this is heartwrenching and difficult to bear.
The channel is requested to do an update once the reports come out.
Lets all stand together and pray for peace for the departed souls and strength for their dear and near ones.
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
Dipankar ji..🙏🏼🙏🏼👏🏼
Very interesting... Thanks
Nicely presented
Much needed video
Aadi people have been speaking about Section 14 of the constitution saying that those born in USA become its citizen, not realising it also says that those born under the jurisdiction of USA.
Jai Bharat ❤
Re is not falling,but the dollar is gaining irrespective of currencies even to Franc and Euro.which were costliest than dollars even a few months back.
Jai Hind Jai Bharat namaste 🚩🙏🇮🇳
Every currency is falling against the dollar, so it is not an Indian thing.
That is why de-dolarisation is a need.
@@bharatuday3196The west had a grip over currency pound and dollar for the last 300+ years, the power in Delhi elected by us are already on it and the right time has to come and they are waiting for it .
Jai Bharat 🇮🇳
Jai hind sir 🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
Jai bharat 🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
Aadi bro when govt fail to stop inflation on daily food items like grains and vegitables and when FMCG companies like Godrej says that don't expect us to grow while posting big loss, then we don't need rocket science to understand where economy is going.
Over to it we have dumb FM who don't know ABCD of economics neither understand practicality of economics and need of Industry. Whenever any journolist ask any question to her, she show blank face and turns back towards officials and ask then reply. We needed FM like Piyush Goyal who understand it properly 🙏
🇮🇳
🙏🏾
Jai Hind
Jai Bharatmata
🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
👏👏👏👏👏
Even I wonder, as rightly explained by Proffessor, companies viz., Ingersolrand, Siemens, Zenotie etc. are operating since decades, having excellent local communicating workforce, European companies are still in coma of associating with China!!!
Very true
Shabash!! Very indepth.
Very informative session, but.
All discussion on geopolitics, what Chaina is doing right what US is doing wrong.
Conclusion must have been what and how Bharat must streamline it's own act based on all range of topics you discussed.
❤
When a FM started working on GST tax on popcorn on basis of taste, then you better know how safe our economy is 🙏😡
Japnese yen is most devalued currency but they survive what's so Big hush
Jai hind jai bharat ❤❤❤❤
The Predator Drones agreement has not been signed yet.
Indian economy needs some very good strategic boosters crafted by someone really financially shrewd crafter...The biggest impediment to successful and redtapism free execution is current bureaucracy, whose deep rooted corruption and greed is scaring away investments and growth of any native sector...
Jai Hind...
Jai Bharat...
Jai Shree Ram..
#JaiShriRam ❤
#JaiHind ❤
Cost of Road Transportation, ' that is ' Costs for both Inter city & Intracity', should become 'TOTAL OPERATIONAL COST + ' basis model ,and not to be costed in ' NUMBERS OF VEHICLES availabe on any routes ,' AVAILABILITY & SO LORRY HIRE' S , SHOULD BECOME UNIFORM TO ANY LOCATIONS AND NEVER ON AVAILABILITY OF VEHICLES to any destination.
There won't be a dull moment. Each year new items are being added to the list of GST gambit. The sadist FM added rice crispies, the poor man's food, this year she added Corn feed converted to popcorn, next probably she may also add grass in GST list, because the poor may resort to eating grass because regular food is becoming unaffordable. FM is on the constant vigil looking for what more the poor is eating that can further be brought under the ambit of GST. Poor will live eating similar feed eaten by cattle. " Nir Mal la".
Like they hv done in moon launch , satellite
Chalo saab mile like karo fatafat..
Tech company collects data - be it Chinese or American - however I am reluctant to use Chinese software and run their tech on my device and gather my data - the US companies are less dangerous (not safe)
If the rupee weekens or the dollar becomes stronger then those who have invested from abroad will definitely get less returns because their investment is in rupees so they will get less dollars. That's how the disinvestment of foreign investment is discouraged. The share market crash is avoided also.
❤🇮🇳🇮🇳❤️
It’s not just roads rails. We need better facilities better hygiene in our cities and metros
I think fta with usa will never happen as they put too many conditions and india will gave a hard negotiation.
👌
When will freebies as tools of vote bank … end?
Untill it becomes incapable of luring down votes (not very soon)
When will people stop voting for freebies?
Come to Mumbai and see amount of construction, Amazing!
🙏🙏🙏
Why the FIIs are continuously selling & jan 25 has been highest in 25 years . Till now in Jan only 2nd Jan was in green n all other days in red till today . Do they do not have faith in Indian capital Market ?
JAI HIND VANDE MATRAM
🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
I’m surprised that India did not come up with something similar to DeepSeek. I would say that India should still produce something similar to DeepSeek as it will not answer some questions such as what happened in Tiananmen Square!
Upper middle class are good spenders and are surging / aspiring to become high net worth. So it is Time our finance department to help with drastic Tax reforms,reducing tax percentage to the upper middle( 50 laks - to 1 crore per annum) OR provide very attractive saving investments enabling taxable reductions. This is the time.
Roti, Kapda, Makaan. Other things are convenient but superfluous and a differentiator for social heirarchy based on marketing the wrong things. Most people have lived their life without a yacht or a pivate jet or designer goods.
Jai hind jai bharat
Mei super chat nahi kar sakta but iam regular fallower you r show
Just for yr Info, Mr Sengupta is evrey sunday on SUNDAY CLIUB. So is AIM. It is hosted by ADVAITA. But he is much better here, On Sunday Club he does not get to talk in depth and Aadi is a brilliant Host in managing the conversation.
Sen Gupta ji namaskar
Bro your last show on Canadien politics. It was paused for some time.
I had to check other videos if they are working. I live in Surrey
Only concern is here at the end rupee is not getting powerful. Mr Aadi your discussion is good but that's not what I hoped for don't mind because at the end money matters and I am from commerce background SO i do know what I mean....... Modi policies are always good for country so I am waiting otherwise rupee has depreciated more than 28 rupees if you compare with dollar in a decade so बनता है अगर लोग गुस्सा हैं
Our Finance Minister is arrogant,, she does not have good knowledge of Economics
It's too much inflation,,, interest rates are high,,,, no way to come out of it for middle class,,, helpless 🙄
12:03 i dont have high hopes on siemens... Siemens india has a very bad habit of selling its most lucrative arms to its parent company for peanuts.... These companies might operate in india, but cleverly siphon off all profits accured here to their parent company, with no/minimal taxes....
Ram Ram ji
Aadi let me tell you that the 414 engines delivery schedule given to HAL was only 1 engine in 2024, and 4 more in 2025. HAL is blatantly lying.
Narayanmurthy wants us to be coolies working away for 18 hrs / 7 days to be the sweatshops for the world. When we have such " industrialists" it is hopeless. So the disrupturs among the younger generation have to be supported.
The doles given/ offered in recent years will demotivate workers.
We talk more about our contry problem and
foreign also instead of them and create panic situations always y they didn't talked or write article on their problem
we need to talked and write more on foreign (europ nd US) issue
this channel is better then gunnershot
1. If we can shift most of our oil imports to rupee or bilateral currencies, then India can afford to let rupee depreciate against USD to gain benefit for exports.
2. The point about China's growth is simply this- why are we after Chinese economy to grow and that too at a certain rate? Chinese are enjoying good income and are stable at least. It can try to beat USA but it need not!!! It is a big economy of at least 5 times India's size!!. Look at Japan- it is doing fine for itself, even if it is not growing. If population is not growing, the need to grow economy also goes down.
3. Trump is more of a threat than action. He is going to be there for just 4 years and nothing much will happen in these 4 years. But what he is talking is a right course of action for US in the long run. But it will take years to change the course for US economy.
4. Forget what US does with its educational system. In India we need to dismantle all social sciences schools from JNU and other central universities ( except Economics) urgently and shift all funding to Science streams. This will be a right step in national interest!!! Let private universities do social sciences education or let IGNOU handle it.
यही मोदीजी कहते थे,,, सोंचो वो प्रधानमंत्री कितना कमजोर होगा जिसका रुपया डॉलर के मुकाबले इतना कमजोर हो,,, मोदी का ही देख लो 😂😂
There's a speculation that deepseek is similar hinderberg on Adani.
Chinese had short these tech companies and made a killing.
The parent company of deepseek is not IT company
Jai shree Ram
Must peg currency to something real fungible transferable
Like gold, commodities
We are subsidizing profligacy of the West, China 10x..
Aadi please invite Dr. Swamy for discussions with other economists.
I am sorry but never on this channel
@DEFTALKSbyAadi this guy declares he is always right. Once for and all he needs to be checked if right or wrong.
Bharat Mata ki Jai
Dipankar shoukd be made RBI governor, Shashikant Das jitani RBI chhod gaya usaki Dipankar achchi tarah Baja dega.
California wants a separate country.
If so what will happen to America minus Cal
no freebies for indian economy
A simple question: can strong dollar support exports? Again ankit is more logical
But with reduced fiscal deficit comes with the reality of tax terrorism.
Our own is squeezing us. So much tax, lost savings in shares. Nirmala sees middle class only to suffer
How will India come with free bees given affect to country