Data Indicates Trouble for U.S. Economy and Housing Market
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ม.ค. 2024
- The U.S. economy will continue to drag down the housing market as data indicates.
#housingmarket #useconomy #realestatenews
Contact Jack Gamble @NobodySpecialFinance
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Thank you so much, Todd, for taking the time to talk and for the incredible hospitality! I really enjoyed this trip.🍻
Jack it was an absolute pleasure getting to know you. Looking forward to more content with you sir 🙏
Awesome work. Great video.
Fantastic content! Very insightful. Clearly explained issues with many points to consider and research on. Looking forward to more of these type of content at your @nobodyspecialfinance channel
10 % of people are richer than they ever dreamed. 60 % of people are poorer than they ever feared.
Corporations that made a killing on us
And the 60 is coming for that 10.
Source for this data pls :)
Why do people keep saying this ? I have more money than I ever had and I am conmterble. I don't know why people keep complaining
@@yaz8954 i am glad you are conmterble. you are very lucky and perhaps blessed. perhaps you are in the higher echelons of society.
Considering the current economic indicators and potential challenges in the U.S. economy and housing market, it's crucial to strategize for financial stability.
A comprehensive approach involves analyzing market trends, understanding potential risks, and considering the expertise of a seasoned financial advisor.
Absolutely, especially in times of economic uncertainty. I recently read about the potential challenges ahead, and it prompted me to review my investment portfolio. With concerns about the housing market, I'm contemplating seeking advice from a reputable financial advisor.
I completely understand your perspective. In the face of economic challenges, having a seasoned advisor like Carl Jason Cohen could be invaluable. His track record in navigating economic downturns and providing tailored solutions might offer the stability and insight needed to weather potential storms.
I've heard positive things about Carl Jason Cohen. I sent him an email, and he promptly responded, offering to schedule a consultation.
He appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a GOOGLE search on his name and came across his website; thank you for sharing.
I go to Lowe's & Home Depot almost every day. I see prices going up and up on everything from paint, to doors, windows, roofing shingles. So I'm really not sure how home prices are going to suddenly drop when I'm the cost to build houses keep increasing. I'm sure land values are increasing, along with labor costs.
Lack of liquidity/ supply and demand inversion.
But the reports say inflation is down to the 2%
We’re good, right?
Same way it dropped in 2008...
@@njdriving We don't have CDs and ridiculous loans going to people who can't afford the houses. Not even the same scenario
Home prices reflect the cost of inflation in many areas. Cost of land, interim financing, regulations, materials and labor.
Rediculous housing prices have ruined the American Way of Life !!!
I live in San Diego and the medium price of homes here is $900,000.
home prices are a symptom, not a cause.
Money printing has.
If Not the cause , then what do you call them to be a symptom of ? Homes are the basis of All middle class $900k avg homes are not middle class they are near zero interest loans on substantially less mortgage at interest rates of 8% and higher which is where they were 30 and more years ago. Just draw a constant payment curve on 900k from zero to 10% it will show you the fake economy of near zero interest rates how they have made your offspring unable to afford a first home and ruined the American Way of Life for 2 generations of kids starting with near zero as adults , not counting those who get their money the old fashioned way (inheritance) ….
Near zero interest rates , just draw constant payment curves from zero to 10% for any amount of a loan in these Rediculous priced homes .. at 8% you can see 30 years of price history not more value in the same homes…
Just take the 900k $ at zero and work it out every 2% to 10% and you will see the same house for over 35 years….
The main problem is that there is no more industry and jobs related to production and everything that America was known and recognized for in the last 100 years. Owners of capital invest in Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, Mexico, Brazil, and they sell us real estate loans, the prices of which they pump up, so the rental price has skyrocketed.
We all sat by as Americas number one industry became tech company ponzi schemes. Our highest paying jobs are tech jobs for companies that don't make a profit but generate high revenue. These companies attract investors with high revenue.
REGULATIONS are the problem- Govt putting mom & pops out of business HUGE problem-crime forcing companies to close down BIG PROBLEM!
@@underleftand their buddies in control hold none of them accountable!
Same problem in Canada, Conservatives sent all the union manufacturing jobs oversees or Mexico, then blame the other side.
Invest in other countries and ruin your own . Awful.
I’m just a regular Joe but last year’s insurance bill had me selling extra vehicles. Less is better in this new world 🤷♂️
We are still at peak. Housing is still way too high. Denver and surrounding areas is over priced by at least 55%. At least. Nothing goes infinitely up. There's a cap. Housings cap was in 2014 right around and since then went overboard.
Recently sold a 3 bedroom Lakefront house valued at $225,000 for 120,000. There were over 100 showings and some crazy low offers for $75,000. I would say that the crash is knocking on our front door
wow, where are you located?
Crash isn't coming unless unemployment gets over 6%. Until then it's going to be fine
Following
yes I would like to know!!@@goodyangie1
@@rapsheets499310% but it is here, that Ai, those white collar layoffs are here, small business is bleeding and ppl are running out of $ because MC reports hit defaults ppl are broke, many are trading in those very low 2.25 interest rates for the higher ones to tap into their equity.
34 Trillion debt! 200 Trillion unfunded liabilities. It's simple math. Beyond repair! 😢 Hard times coming!
yes,but when ? in one year ,ten years?.I'm hearing this since 2003..how much in stock market I have lost since 2003?
@@bobdole2465 a lot in 08.
It’s always a boom bust cycle
That just means there will be more inflation. These folks keep warrning about a horrible economy every year, but the numbers don't corroborate it. Meanwhile, I keep making money whenever I find deals. I keep disciplined in valuation and don't use too much debt.
@@sociolocomtsac there’s plenty of reputable sources they cite and show.
I agreed with the bulls in 21 and most of 22.
Not anymore. Every argument they have is not backed by much and if they show data that supports their argument, they never dig into the details of it like these guys do.
If you tell me the floor beneath us isn’t going to fall because there are structures that are supporting it but then someone points out to me that the structures are rotting away and no one is bothering to fix it, I’m gettin out of there.
I agree. Each year, it's going to be horrible & hard times... However, I dont see it.
Jack is 100% honest and honesty is a rare commodity these days.
Like silver and platinum
Great show Todd and Jack! Thank you!
Thank you so much!
Interesting!!
Why does everyone say a recession is coming we've been in one since they changed the definition 😢
They did not change the definition of a recession. The benefits of a good economy is not being shared across all classes of citizens. The upper classes are doing better than ever.
you think we have been in a recession since 1940s? Where did you get your data?
@@realchicagophillAgreed but do the upper class usually suffer in a recession? They usually dont. Its always the lower class who feels it the most.
NO it’s Not coming! Houses are up 40% in price-interest rates stagnating-an avg income family CANNOT buy an average house at $400,000 across the nation!
Thank you Todd for inviting Jack to the first show in the new studio. The show was excellent and informative. Jack demonstrates that you do not need an MBA from an Ivy League institution to tell people the truth and provide financial literacy to the average listener. Thank you both for the service you provide to the listeners.
If there’s a Civil War at the border, I wonder how that affects the economy? 😥😰🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Great Todd!🌞
Jack at Nobody Special Finance is Awesome!🌞
Thank you
What an interesting man. Great interview guys. 👌🏼
A BIG THANK YOU for giving real logical thinking on this news.
Janet Yellen the other day in her speech said that the middle class has gained purchasing power since the pandemic. That’s how out of touch these people are
They did in 2023
@@josefj1776 gas, food, housing and insurance(all the necessities) have gone up at least 40% but most have almost doubled like for like. I dunno how many people you know who are making double what they made in 2020 for the same job? I don’t know any. Even if you own your home with a fixed 30 year property taxes and insurance have spiked your payments. I got my hvac repaired last year and it cost me $9500, guy told me a year earlier it would have cost about $3300 for the same repair.
They rather l ie, that way they dont have to prove they are failures
Two of my favorites here. Thanks for bringing up these extremely relevant and important topics.
Hello Greetings patriot.
How are you doing, hope everything is going well with you ❤️
How is the economy situation over there?
REAL NEWS is greatly appreciated.
Are you sure
The real news, in addition to this report, is that the Gov't etc., are attempting to get the economy back on track from building all these new homes. They need low interest rates to stimulate sales, which helps banking, retail for new discretionary buying (appliances, furniture, decor) which feeds state governments via inspections and fees, and so forth.
The US has no manufacturing (except bullets and war planes, etc. )as in the old days, no savings with healthy interest payments for seniors. It's all about pumping up the stock market for corporations and stock holders, dumping poor real estate results into pension funds. Let's hope the Big RE Dream pulls through to get back to normal, once again. Will it happen?
New studio is great need different seating set up in my opinion. Enjoying content with melody and Travis. Thank you 🎉
Thanks. This set is designed for our training set. We have two other sets being finalized (more comfortable for interviewing guests).
Great interview.
home prices won't come down, there is just too much money out there, and those who holds the most of that money don't want it to.
I feel this. There’s so many people waiting on the sidelines saving their money as house prices come down. Once the price is right, there will be another wave of buyers as other people are still trying to get ahead to save for a house. It’s a game of musical chairs.
You don't get it The only reason prices havent come down yet is because the biggest home builders are holding prices up betting the fed will lower rates soon. That all. Otherwise they would have already collapsed. If fed doesn't lower rates soon builders will be forced to lower prices and many are on edge of bankruptcy because they have huge inventory (which they've not been recording on their books) which they cant sell. Its all lies that there's a shortage of homes. Thats all a facade to keep the narrative going and prices up. There are entire vacant communities in many states. If there really was a true shortage why are builders putting fake SOLD signs up and telling their workers to park in driveways to make it appears that the homes are vacant? All lies and soon its all going to be exposed. They are playing a dangerous game and I think its gonna bite them in the end and no ones gonna bail them out. Fed doesn't care about builders only the banks.
been camping watching houses to buy and i started to noticed the ones i favorited in these las 3 years literally going down in price i saved a few more and 9 out of 10 have gone down in price and my thousands too i saw a house literally go down 5k then 30k in about 4 months.....prices are going down at this point its all a waiting game
11:43 What a great explanation of whats happening to this country
In Reno last spring 2X3's were almost $4: a foot, so I stopped building! Now the same boards are $2.05 to $2.25! So I loaded up just in case!
Fantastic, what a superb interview.
Great information!
Congratulations on your new studio! Niice 😃.
Thanks 🙏
What a great guest. Best I have seen so far...
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson
Good conversation. These guys are quite good.
fantastic! I'm getting my popcorn.
Great video Theres a local small business that holds garage sales.His business is clean up on foreclosures and rentals.I asked whats filling the trailer these days.Foreclosures and homeless squatters.Out here in central California prices are out of sight, for box size home built in 1950s.1000sq ft 450k with carport.Now once Carls Jr gave out free glass of water now $1.50,they can keep it.Thank you for your informative videos!
Super guest; very informative interview!
From Terence Wise in UK.........Two sensible American guys keeping an eye on the economy close to the ground.No hype or disinformation,always interesting.
Todd & Jack you both do a great job of helping people understand what is happening economically!! Keep up the good work, you are doing God's work!
Could one of you explain how exactly rate decreases would cause this vertical spike in unemployment? That doesn’t make sense??
The rate increase isn’t the cause of the spike in unemployment, it’s the effect from the Fed when times are bad and they need to stimulate the economy
I like Jack have been wondering when the housing crash has been… I live in California and home prices are way over inflated. Even for California. We need a market correction and I think it will happen after this years presidential election. No matter who comes into the Oval Office. If it does not happen, future generations of homeowners will be proved even further out of the market! I pray that does not happen and that the market corrects itself! Great podcast, first time listening in and I will be subscribing for future content.
Great Show. Thank you.
Jack,I’m in Raleigh and Wilmington NC. It seems like everything they are building are rentals.Its nonstop . Where do they think all these people will come from?
Ups is laying off 12,000. People have stop buying
Update ny still over bidding cause of the supply and demand issue drive home prices from 139 to around 205 alot of buyer's not enough home how will this end?
Thanks guys. As a reminder, the 50% DTI ratio is on their GROSS income.. so it may represent 60.. 65.. % of their net (take home) earnings.
Bingo
Percentages don’t factor in actual dollar amounts, though. 40% left on 300k income allows for a drastically different life style than 40% left on 60k income.
Excellent video but frightening future financially! 💥💥💥
Any thoughts on the US LEI indicator or SAHM st-louis fred?
Jack is not ordinary guy. Very Smart and knows his stuff. Thanks Todd, excellent show again.
Great job
Ya I looked to by a multi unit home to use as a rental but the price I could charge for rents and the cost of the unit I would only make $200-400 profit per month on a 3 unit home.. well that can be eaten up in a second with property tax increases or something goes wrong.. one missed month of rent etc.. its insane
Always comming with great content!
Hello Greetings patriot.
How are you doing, hope everything is going well with you ❤️
How is the economy situation over there?
Freddie Mac & VA foreclosure in my area are going crazy. Have never seen this many.
Thank you. I listened to each of you everyday. Jack thank you for your research it's vast. Todd thanks for your recent trip to NYC and good going to Travis as well. Great work guys.
Same thing with Travis & Economic Ninja, they have been saying this since September 23' OK, CRASH ! crash,crash. enough with the GUESS'S !
I’ve heard it since 2020 and some people have been waiting since.
Uh, what?
MALCONTENTS since 1989. And don't get me started on Travis with his Elaine dancing or Danielle DiMartino and her face filter.
Spoke to a real estate broker in Los Angeles he said “right now’s the best time to buy a home”….yeah right.
How can the home rates NOT be reflective of the FED rates? Greedflation?
this new Studio is so nice!
Thank you 🙏
Been following since day 1 m I'm so happy your growing I always share your videos in the Miami Market ❤️ keep it up love your education on the real estate market and trustworthiness.
Also they count those with multiple jobs as added jobs.
Total nonsense!
Common man. John market is so great.. everyone should have two or three👀
love the new studio Todd. Great to see Jack on you show
Thanks Todd 🙏
lol @ studio.. it is the spare bedroom with a green screen.. ahh tecnology...
Great show👌
Thanks for this I've been waiting for the crash and no they're going to do everything they can to stop it. My wife and I have to be out of our apartment in June for what It costs for a two-bedroom apartment on long island, we are in the process of buying a condo. We were able to get the condo for 10,000 less than asking price. So we'll do what we have to do and then refinance but I think this is the right decision.
Its amazing watching all this deflation forming in real time. I feel like im watching sports announcers following a game that most people dont know they are playing, and somehow those of us tuned in have the opportunity to just sit back and eat popcorn
This is what I feel is the most informative and accurate talk I've heard. I am the one income earner and a homeowner who had had to start using credit cards to fill in the income gap. Called my mortgage company letting them know I'm am struggling. Every suggestion that was made I have already looked at and won't work to help with my mortgage payment etc.
Better either look into if it might be possible to get a roommate, or if not, to rent it out for a good bit more than your mortgage payment, or you may need to put it on the market as soon as possible, and hope you make at least enough profit to break even after you pay all the closing costs you will owe when you sell the house. Just be prepared to be reasonable on your asking price for your neighborhood at today's prices, especially if you live in an area with lots of newly built homes for sale. Good luck, just don't ignore the issue before you get foreclosed on. Hopefully you can rent for cheaper in your area if you must start over, and don't be too proud to utilize family and or friends if anyone will let you move in with them for cheap, then live extremely frugally for next 5 years while you try to get a solid financial education (watch Minority Mindset, this guy Nobody Special, Rich Dad Poor Dad, Dave Ramsey), learn how to budget, save, and start basic investments. Slowly rebuild your financial goals, just like Travis here had to do! Good Luck!!!
Have you considered a second job?
Sounds like you got caught up in the home buying hysteria of the past several years and now you are paying the price! I watched the 2007 crisis unfold and I knew it would happen this time as well. We are only in the beginning. It’s gonna get much worse!
Sorry it got that way. Any way to earn side income?
Can you add content in the California house market
Thanks Todd, great show, awesome guest.
Just something I observed about the new setup, you both looked a bit uncomfortable having to look to the side to talk to each other while seated facing forward. It looks a bit unnatural. Maybe more of a face to face seating position would look better? Just a thought.
Yep! Should have it set up like Joe Rogan…the best studio set up yet!
Thanks!
This was being said two years ago, and then a year ago. Will there be a market adjustment yes. Crash? No….
Interesting observations, consumer debt is at an all time high and something I watch. Another is affordability of purchasing a home but also ret affordability. We will see where it all goes, 2024 will not be dull.
We’re living in a world where normal people simply “don’t exist”… and trying to justify it… this shit is insanity people can’t afford to live on their own if you were born in the 90s, definitely 2000+. It’s literally impossible now…
People treat each other so shitty, and are willing to do so for fake money just to get themself a little bit further… that’s how we got here…
Great info
Could houses be too big and too far apart? The RE industry forces houses to get bigger, and sprawl traditions make it hard to build smaller homes. If we could buy houses with 50%+ down or build after purchase, we could produce enough homes. Our lobby system of government is the problem, as is oversimplification from social media know-it-all ideas.
no one told new home builders, they are still raising prices
Finally, the new Studio! It looks great! The only thing better is this video!
Thank you 🙏
Honestly I really think housing needs to come down at least 60pct , I know if this does happen there will be lots of pain felt by the ones who have negative equity but in the long term we will be better of as a nation , High housing prices causes more pain for the average person but benefits a few.
Being "rich" from just sitting in your house because you got lucky with your timing..... is bullshit anyway. Sure some appreciation makes sense, inflation, etc.... but no one should be feeling "rich" because the "value" of their property went up 50+% in 5 years or whatever. They are stupid if they believe that's a real value.
Prices will never drop by 60%. There is too much demand compared to supply.
As soon as prices go down by 15 - 20%, people will jump in and buy. You really think people will wait until price drops 60%?
@@Chris-fv5sp that person is ridiculous saying 60%, so I agree with that. One thing people forget about percentages though is that the percent down doesn't have to be as much as it was up. For example, in a market that went up say 38% due to covid, it would only take a 27% drop to be right back where it was before any increase. Markets are obviously really different. 38% give or take is a common ballpark increase in a lot of markets though. If they went down 20% that would be huge.
The FED never said 7 rate cuts. The market said that, and people are trying push that. FED said May or June to consider first rate cut
Maybe you see three 25 point cuts, May, September and November.
@@JohnDoe-np3zk I believe that's how the FED dot plot showed
Does it have to come to a point where people no longer send in mortgage payments again...if everyone stopped making their mortgage payments for 3 months...watch the rates drop instantly
Thank You Gentlemen this is helpful and much appreciated❤️
This channel is starting to be one of my favorite ❤ channels. Love Todd's common sense 👏..when I am ready to invest i will be calling him. 👊
Great video, gentlemen!
Thanks
In my colorado area they upped the down payment assistance threshold to 160k. And a 625k home. So all the homes in the area we have been trying to get into are getting 0% intrest money for downpayment to walk in and buy them. Prices are going up again...
Lots of doom and gloom, but these guys have no history of predicting anything without hindsight. Anyone can do that. Look at past data and then say " I told you so" If interest rates drop the market will wake up perhaps one last final push in prices before the US finally goes down the drain. When ? Who knows.
Prices have to come down!
@@tlgallego7445They won't 😂. People who are stupid and pay 96 month payments for their 95k Ford Raptors while only making 70k a year only look at the monthly payment. They also buy homes on 50 year loans at 65% of their income.
The rate and down payment with financial illiterate folks set the prices
Debt is now rising faster than incomes. Lowering rates wont do anything, this is why people have been sounding the alarm. It creates a liquidity trap because even if people are able to refinance to shore up a little spending money, how much are they going to shave off? Not much. Why? Because a .5% point interest rate reduction isn’t worth it when you have a 3% rate. So what do people do? They just continue to pay their debt to reduce their debt burdens. The only problem is, this makes it even worse! It’s a vicious cycle.
Itll happen man but they are transparent on their faults in the past but we all know when rates are this high and deflation occurs it financially and mentally stresses all Americans. @toddlavigne6441
Some auto dealers near me are offering zero to three percent interest on new cars.
Jack aka Nobody Special Finance has a terrific channel. Bring back another collab enjoyed this content
Hello Greetings patriot.
How are you doing, hope everything is going well with you ❤️
How is the economy situation over there?
the question is when.
Love this guest
Nice work
I had a feeling the government was not telling the truth about the economy and all.
You know how you can tell the government is lying? Their lips are moving.
When do they tell the truth😮
What were they lying about?
@@josefj1776 just pick a subject
@@spaceindian3769 sure Unemployment and housing.
What facial recognition software did you use?
Most likely he used Google lens 😀
Great video guys. Always good to hear both of yours perspective.
Woah coherent commentary on the economy, we don't see that every day.
The employment rate was during Christmas hiring of temporary jobs! I have been unemployed since June 2023
Great interview !!! Thank you both
Jack is so awesome
I found Jack Gamble when I was seeking information about a problem called Evergrande….. back before it was even a story.
There was Jack with a couple thousand subscribers……and a microphone.
I believe he had just escaped New Jersey….
Class Act. 👍⭐️👍⭐️
Thanks Fish! Appreciate you sticking around this whole time. FYI we should be getting news from Evergrande. They're due in Hong Kong court on Monday for a liquidation hearing. Will the whole thing go to firesale or will it be another case of "extend and pretend?" We'll know in a few days.
This guy proved to me how much information you can actually get out of understanding the numbers, specially if your a guy with a lot of real world experience its a great combination for market analysis. I will definitely subscribe to his channel after i finish this interview
Excellent guest. Really informative discussion 👌🏻
Why would the fed cut rates? Because everyone wants rates to be at 0%. We went a long time with minimal friction of interest rates, and the demand is to get back to that.
The reason they dont cut rates is to prevent inflation bounce of the 1970s. And I think that is why rate cuts will be minimal over the next year at least (and if I were a gambling man, I would bet at least 2 years before significant rate cuts).
Thanks for continuing updates I'd rather trade the stock market as it's more profitable. I make an average of $34,500 per week even though I barely trade myself.
It’s just a lie that “we’re exactly where we were at in 05” people have WAY more equity in their homes and are WAY more qualified (credit wise) on average than in 05.