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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024
- In today's show, the panel discusses the future of Disney Vacation Club and what they expect to see in the coming years!
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Shaun (Shawn, Sean??) absolutely nailed it with his point.
It's driven me crazy over the years as people simultaneously complained that the Parks are both too crowded & too expensive. Totally oblivious to the fact that if they became cheaper, they would be far, far more crowded.
They have over built hotels versus park capacity. It's intentionally ignored but that is why WDW is a hotel business rather than park business today.
There's a third rail...Isn't a lesson of the pandemic that they can simply limit capacity in order to reduce crowd congestion? Chapek indicated in the quarterly earnings call that the parks that are open are operating at a profit even with reduced capacity limits.
Love having Paul on the show, him and Amy are so sweet
May not be popular, but I hope they never build Reflections. As a current DVC owner at CCVC some of the main reasons I love it there are the general feeling of "wilderness", having a place to come back to at the end of long park days that feels relaxing, and the general theming. I also love that you don't look out your window and see hotel congestion, but the beautiful lake and surrounding trees. I really wish they would use the land in between WL and Fort Wilderness to create more walking paths/hiking trails. If they are determined to develop that land to make money they should create a FL-Disney cultural and wildlife center where guests can go and have cool experiences. Maybe like a much smaller version of animal kingdom that has local wildlife and showcases Native American culture.
I miss being able to bike from WL to FW for the outdoor movie with Chip and Dale. I loved the retreat element of WL.
Yes my concerns too. You are correct.
To Pete’s comment at one point: If resale sales continue to surge, and direct sales remain anemic, you’ll have a greater and greater percentage of resale members. Does DVC then rethink the current White Card vs. Blue Card hierarchy? Minimally, why not extend dining and merchandise discounts to resale owners to encourage purchasing?
"Does DVC then rethink the current White Card vs. Blue Card hierarchy?" No. "Minimally, why not extend dining and merchandise discounts to resale owners to encourage purchasing?" It would cost DVC money - the Disney manager in charge of DVC is trying to maximize revenue from DVC direct sales and 1) that segment gets no revenue when a DVC resale is purchased and 2) the Disney manager in charge of maximizing revenue from dining and merchandise (or even ticket) sales has no incentive to give away potential revenue from his/her segment in order to benefit that DVC executive's numbers so DVC typically has to pay for the deals that they make inter-company... It might look like one Disney super-corporation but the individual executives still have to meet their individual targets.
Fiasco making some good points and owning that part of the episode.
When he mentioned them creating more luxurious stays like cascade cabins. You have more wealthy people coming in buying up alot of points for a 1 week stay. Those points being bought up for the bigger rooms will create less competition for the smaller rooms. I think it is a win/win, for high net worth individuals and "value stay room" individuals.
WDW needs a DVC resort like the Grand Californian that is connected to a park. Maybe a 5th gate would provide that opportunity.
Bay Lake Tower is a 10 minute walk to Magic Kingdom and Beach Club Villas is less than a 5 minute walk to Epcot, they are really close. But a 5th gate with a DVC resort connected would be really cool!
DVC is a great discount to STAY.....Where is the discount to PLAY. give members a "wow" discount on tickets for direct members and their sales will soar.
Exactly!! 💯
Yes. When we first bought in we got a great deal on gold annual passes but to our surprise it was just a one time offer. For that reason and other poor customer service experiences, we have decided not to purchase any more points.
Paul you’ve got to keep your ideas to yourself, DVC are never going to move people into OKW to renovate expired resorts (which is a great solution) if people don’t think it was their idea :)
I was looking forward to reflections as well Sean!
The thing about reflections, I never felt I knew exactly what it was about. The pictures where very... could be anything. I was hoping to get excited when the details were dropped.
A large percentage of the DVC population of current owners will be at an age to not want to reinvest when the contract expires. **The legacy resorts and the legacy owners will reach their sunset** New resorts with new owners will continue to be added in future years (like the Riviera) creating a second wave of DVC resorts and owners. After watching the Disney Springs transformation, the MGM Studios transformation, and now the EPCOT transformation, I have no doubt Disney will teardown legacy resorts at expiration and build back something new and better that we can’t even imagine 20+ years from now.
The 85 percent number isn't correct anymore because each contract dvc resells on okw gets extended. Id bet it's closer to 30 to 35 percent now and only going up.
Right now only about 25 percent of OKW is extended. At their current pace of sales, only about 35% of the resort will be extended by 2042.
Yes
Great, great show! One thing y’all started to discuss but missed is the future resorts plan - considering they only have the California tower on the horizon, could they get into a scenario where the Riviera sells out and the ONLY property available direct from disney is in California? I can’t imagine they’d be so short sided to be put in a position where people visiting in Florida have no place to buy.
I see Disney offering extensions in 2040, then just reselling any points that aren't extended. It's proven at this point that DVC is as profitable as a regular resort, so I think they would want to keep that going.
I wonder how the re-sale restrictions will affect availability at Riveara long-term...
Wait time out, I thought they always tell guests that the DVC guides don't work on commission?
They could build up and island and have Disney's Fantasy Island where the ships take you and smaller planes.
Pete getting a lot of miles out of that Riviera shirt.
Ghost Ride The Dole Whip I think they record a bunch on the same day x
Why not- it’s good.
Change to MS teams 😂😎🌴 though anything is better than Skype.
I'm not dead. :-p We bought in 1993. We also didn't buy the extension, so we are still 2042.
This is 15 days old so as missed Chapek’s recent confirmation that future spend at Parks and Resorts is going to be slashed .
Try Microsoft Teams it’s the best
I think that’s overselling it.
But what happens when the resort sells out (Rivera) and all the resale owners know they CANNOT book any place else so they all book at 11 months. Getting a room at Riviera will become next to impossible.
How many current DVC owners at various resorts complain about not being able to get into their home resort and booking split stays or going to a different DVC resort? 🤔
The resale restriction has multiple consequences yet to be experienced due to the fact it hasn’t sold out, and Covid made availability unrealistic in 2020. 🤔😎🌴
You are correct. All those direct owners who bought DVC's spin that resale restrictions are a benefit for direct owners will find out eventually that Riviera resale owners being forced to book Riviera means fewer villas for direct (non-Riviera) owners who want to give Riviera a try at the 7 month window.
Great conversation. I have owned DVC since 2001. My last purchase was in 2011. I was looking up for a family member the cost of a hotel room at Wilderness Lodge the week before Christmas. 750 bucks. Looked at contemporary. 940. I remember being able to get these in the 200-300 area. Wow. Inflation big time.
Does the resale restrictions hurt direct sales more than help direct sales? A new resort selling direct has limited resale opportunity, so it hurts direct more in that people think about the scenario whereas they may need to sell in the future for unforeseen reasons and RR will sell less on the resale market costing then money. So I think Disney blew it.
The other thing to remember about the OKW extensions is that they offered it in 2007-2008 right in the middle of the great recession. I was tempted. But, I didn't have the money at the time to extend.
That's exactly what I always thought. Bad timing. I didn't consider as much that people would be less inclined to pay money for an extension that wouldn't kick in for decades. Or that many of the original owners would be in their 80s or 90s by 2042.
Beyond 20 years the end isn't real. At 10 it will be very real.
Pete at Poly in 2018 I was trying to pay less than 500 per night. In 2021 I am trying to reserve below 700. That's why we should have bought in 2017.
Let me give you a clue , when a corporation claims something as "legacy" that mean they are phasing it out for something less spectacular and valuable..
This is the TRUTH
Being from the uk we have missed out on two trips so far and potentially a Alaskan cruise in August . We are dvc brought resale before the changes and are lucky that we have our blue card and discounts etc . We can’t get over to you guys quick enough but could find ourselves in a position we’re we loose points as we aren’t able to get over and do those potential shorter stays ! Personally Riviera looks amazing but I wouldn’t buy points there as I like the fact that we can stay at different resorts.
2042 I will be in my seventies! 😊 so as much as I’d like to think I’ll still be visiting the likely hood might be a smaller one. We brought so our children could get the benefit of staying onsite they can then decide what they want to do extend or whatever is on offer at the time as they will be paying 😄
They could end annual passes, for non-DVC members and while raising the price for those DVC annual passes by 50%. Then offer a guaranteed 40% annual discount, for DVC direct contract holders. Disney could then make $$$$+ on both ends.
Great show! Love the longer shows!
Great discussion! Definitely on of my favorite episodes. Love everyone’s input.
I would be worried about the number of extra points Disney is raising the resorts by. How many new points for 2022? Illegal much?
Didn't Walt intend for the average man to be able to afford a trip to Disney..if you jack up the price to make it more exclusive doesn't fit with his vision..
Hedging inflation is the main reason we bought in. We bought resale at BLT last year after paying $50 more a night every year at the Contemporary.
I very much enjoyed the show as being entertaining and informative. Thanks for the discussion.
1. The parks segment will be a much, much smaller fraction of Disney in 2042 than it was in 1992. The top execs at Disney are in motion pictures and streaming. If they ruin DVC it will not have a meaningful direct effect on their annual profits.
Their goal is for people to buy direct at the highest possible price at the lowest cost. In 1992, lots of points went to waste and people kept their contracts but today there is an efficient resale and rents market and 98 percent of points are used. The hat hurts their margins. They need to get rid of legacy contracts bought for low prices with grandfathers benefits.
I think they should try to refurbish about one resort every 5 years after 2042 and break up OKW and SS into two smaller resorts each with inventive and attractive themes. Then extend the Skyliner or monorail to really add value. After 50 years it makes sense to refresh or reinvent your concept (the Contemporary isn’t very contemporary anymore).
This was a great episode Pete and Co. Loved the two people you had from dvc store so interesting to hear from former dvc employees and their perspective.
Great and really interesting conversation. Thanks
Just found this channel and have been watching a few videos and I just knewwwww he was from Jersey. The accent, the attitude. Heyyy fellow Jersian!
From my breakdown... Dvc makes more money on people using points for studios. Makes less money on points used for 2 bedrooms
What I am worried about is that they raise the dues a ton in the last 5 or so years before expiration to do major renovation on our dime and then we don't get to enjoy the investment we made since we expire out...
Doesn't mean that they won't attempt it but it is against the law.
I was under the impression that people can will their contracts to relatives upon death, and the survivors continued the payments, Am I wrong?
That’s what I believe too..😀
Yes, you can. Our plan is to put ours in a trust for our kids.
You are correct.
Does anyone think Disney might use a resort's expiration as an excuse to increase the total number of points for that resort? Let the contracts expire, refurbish the rooms, rename the resort, and reopen it with an higher point total. That would let them charge more per night. Is that possible?
I think that will happen at Boardwalk.
Expiration means all new contracts, meaning new resale restrictions and of course, higher point charts (say goodbye to those cheaper Boardwalk standard view villas!). Those are the biggest reasons that there will not be extensions of the current resort contracts.
Great conversation! I wonder if DVC would ever consider offering a “conversion fee” in the future where Resale members could have the opportunity to get a blue card. This would be a clever way to bridge the current two class member system.
This is something we hope would be considered, giving more flexibility for points usage.
The OKW extension was never ever offered for $10 per point. It was offered for $25 per point, discounted to $15 per point - but still a lot for points that you could not use for 35 years. If they offered an extension closer to expiration, the costs would skyrocket to close to full price for a new 50 year contract (time value of money means the value of the use is mostly in early part of the contract). So $50-75 per point is a wildly low guess.
Keep in mind that early resale sellers of the extended OKW contracts only saw around an $8 per point increase compared to resellers of 2042 OKW contracts. The supposedly discounted $15 per point extension price was still double the actual value.
A true extension for any legacy resort would not allow for the new resale restrictions and would not allow for updated point charts (goodbye Boardwalk standard view!) - so I will bet against any true extensions being on the table.
Sean Falk’s point was brilliant. I am imagining a Chinese themed DVC (think Mulan theming throughout) to capture the ever-growing Chinese tourist market…synergies with Disney Shanghai and Hong Kong. Super idea Sean!
I'm in that position of not being able to come and so so anxious to come back. We left Disney for our awesome first family vacation on Feb 14. And now I'm just waiting for my logical, slow thinking husband to pull the trigger on the AKL resale contract that I want to buy. We took a tour or Riviera when we were there and we LOVED that resort but the relsale restrictions are a deal breaker for us.
This was a fantastic topic to have open discussion/thoughts from all of you. I think the reason OKW extension offer wasn't that successful was because they offered it too early. As Derek said they didn't want to put that money up again that soon. I don't know that DVC would want to take out of commission so many resorts at the same time as it will greatly reduce the offering that were showcased to the other DVC resorts that have a later expiration date and where they can use their points.
What Disney fan’s and a lot of people are realizing is that buying DVC is way more productive that staying on their hotels, pay and get nothing after their stay. Same happened at Disneyland with the anual passes, the marketing of the direct sales has worked and has indirectly benefited the resales too. They know this, that’s why the plans at Anaheim location, plans on international locations. And on the post pandemic era, they are going need , yes need people staying on their hotels and spend on tickets, food and shopping. I don’t think in 2022 or when this pandemic decides to give us back the freedom, people will not go to Disney parks, just because they are parks, DVC will become a must for Disney co.
I Very much consider OKW as a cash option. I love the big rooms! Until I myself can afford DVC, paying OKW will always be an option for me
Something I didn’t think about until this episode is that if they do let them expire and refurb it into a new 50 year deed is that now going to be a new resort? Meaning if u have resale now at one of these resorts that does not expire in 2042 it’s going to very much limit where you can use your points. If u have copper creek by the end you would only be able to use at copper creek
Do 2 days a week where tickets cost more, but crowds are restricted. I'd pay if it meant I could do everything I wanted in 4 days instead of 6 or 7.
We own 210 points in OKW, We did extend the 15 years when it was offered, because our grandchildren will be able to use the points when we have passed on. It was a great idea and deal.
Rob was sooooo helpful when we bought our first DVC contract in 1999! And he lives in the same city that I do 😊!
Could DVC drop the hammer at some point and restrict all future resale contracts from being used at resorts other than the home resort, essentially adding the current Riviera resale restriction across the entire resale market?
I always thought they would do that.
That would crush so many resorts values like SS and off-site DVC like HH. Partially why I am only considering resorts I like being at or will have decent value still.
No. They can restrict the new resorts like Riviera, but the Legacy 14 cannot be similarly restricted. It's in the contracts.
It's silly enough that they restrict Riviera. When a resale buyer picks up a Riviera contract, they can only use those points at Riviera. Over time, direct (non-Riviera) buyers who thought they had access to Riviera at 7 months out will start realizing that those resale restrictions on Riviera mean that they have fewer villas at Riviera that they can trade into...
Thanks for the responses. This has been in the back of my mind since first hearing about the Riviera resale restriction.
It would be great if they re-themed the “rehab” once they are ready to develop it. I think an Asian themed resort would be wonderful
It seems like the mood is shifting on DVC. Seems like benefits of ownership are waning a bit.
We stayed at a DVC resort during the pandemic and it’s what led us to buy.
Have y’all tried “teams” instead of Skype
I believe 25% of OKW was extended originally. They have since sold direct about 3-4% more with extended date. If they actively buyback and resell it. They could easily have 75% with 2057 by 2042.
DVCnews has gone through the deeds. About 19% of OKW was extended originally. Right now only about 25 percent of OKW is extended. At their current pace of sales, only about 35% of the resort will be extended by 2042.
You keep forgetting to all direct sales at OKW go to 2057. While there are a lot of points that will expire in 42 there are still plenty that will continue to 57 at OKW.
Right now only about 25 percent of OKW is extended. At their current pace of sales, only about 35% of the resort will be extended by 2042.
Pete👍
Question, I think I know the answer but just wanna confirm. If I bought 200 points at OKW with an August use year direct, then I buy a small contract, 50 points, at lets say Beachclub would I be able to use all 250 points at beach club at my 11 month window?
No, only the 50 points.
No. Only the 50 pt contract at 11month
No, you would need to bank and borrow on that one contract to get more points. When the borrowing restriction is lifted, you could potentially have 150 points to use at once
@@judyp4421 thanks for confirming
@@carries.213 thanks for confirming