The data shown in this video is from after the B-patch for the record! I stream almost every day on Twitch at www.twitch.tv/gm_blue. Feel free to stop by if you have questions / just want to hang out. P.S: I also forgot to mention in this video that Caitlyn can be strong in this current meta (13.19b) too by flexing into Vanquishers since an early Jhin 2 / Sett 2 / Ashe 2 can be quite strong.
While this analysis is good it is not comprehensive because you are not accounting for the opportunity cost of being able to choose non-legend specific augments at any phase. You would need to look at the EV of the guaranteed 1+5 random choices seen vs 6 random choice in each augment round. Right now you are just analyzing getting randomly assigned 1 augment based on your legend and that is not the scenario that is happening. Being able to pick from a pool of options (keep in mind that there cannot be duplicates) drastically changes the probabilities and consequently the EV of each choice.
@@paulmarkbevey Yeah unfortunately this is as far as this analysis will go. There is so much more you can do with it, which I get is your point, but the likelihood it changes the conclusion is minimal. I'm not comfortable from a mathematical standpoint attempting to calculate these probabilities with any level of authority, so this level of analysis is sufficient for myself and I suspect for most people. As for other considerations if you want to take this line of thought further: - There are several portals that change augment probabilities from the default probabilities. - As you mentioned, augments can only be drawn once in a game which causes some strange circumstances with some legends because some legends have augments that can be offered in later stages (e.g: Portable Forge) while others have augments that aren't offered in later stages (e.g: Pumping Up). - On top of that, 2-1 augments are never tailored while 3-2 and 4-2 augments can be tailored - yet no one knows exactly how this tailoring works mathematically. We just know it decreases your odds of specific augments and increases your odds of specific augments based on your board. - Risk profiles of players affect how often they roll augments which also affects the number of available augments. Your assumption is there are 6 random choices, but if we really want to be accurate, we should also consider the possibility that a player doesn't roll augments because they meet some set of criteria. What are those criteria? It goes on and on. I would rather stop here and explain the meta in a simple way than get too hung-up on being "comprehensive" personally. Although I appreciate where you are coming from as it is much more serious topic of concern in research. I think some shortcuts are okay for a game though!
essentially it reverted back to not having the potential legend augment gives you more chances to have better poro augments. the others are still good, but this change made it so good legend augment choices are even more rare now. viable, just requires some more risk/luck to pull it off.
Can you make a video about basic strategies of TFT like economy and streaks (what is bizarre or what is reasonable to do for a streak)? For example, would it be okay for me to go down to 0 when I have all five of my units in 2-5 to keep and make a 5 streak off of that if I have already slammed my items but am not sure if I will win or not? or what to do when you get an economy start when you get all the money and 1 or 2 items in the 1. stage.
i would only go to 0 if im 100% guarenteed to win at least the 3-4 next round to make up the money you lost which is very rare since some player can get crazy 4 cost a that stage so i wouldn't recommend it but could be a game winning move also in economy starts i would say the better move is to loose streak because you have a item disadvantage. Hope it helps
what do you mean go to 0, you mean roll down to 0 on 2-5? No. That's a waste of time and effort. Your gold is important early on and you need to all in around 4-1 level 7 or partially all in if your board is already upgraded and you just push levels and save gold. You slam items when you fight someone and it looks like you're about to lose. It's okay to slam suboptimal stuff instead of best in slot items to win. I think you're overthinking it a bit too hard, if you get an eco start assuming you're at 10 gold which is what it is, you just let your money rise and you can either open your board and lose streak or just buy units and keep going. I don't get those often but I usually just play normally and keep pushing gold or whatever. But yeah. Keep playing the game, it sounds like you need a bit of experience and to keep learning, it sounds like you're a bit low into bronze or silver (no flame) so just keep playing. These are like micro stuff, don't think you should be overthinking these things. You should just keep playing and learn what you're doing wrong, questions like these you'll figure out on your playthrough. A streaks just a streak. It's good to level up say if you're going against a level 6 or 7 cheese to keep your streak or whatever but rolling down early on to 0 is a throw.
I tried playing the urf lottery for ionia and vanq, but it just griefs your stage 1 flexibility to tailor for 2-1. Also saccing a 3-2 augment feels bad. His 4-2 prismatic is amazing for ionia and noxus tho.
i mean thats mad greedy though. dont try to force ionia, vanq just play it naturally. aint worth throwing your whole game. you pretty much get the ionia crest and vanq crest around 4-2 or some shit if u field enough of those units and get lucky.
hi, im sure this doesnt effect 99% of ur viewers, but ur audio is lopsided like 45Left/55Right and it really annoyed my ears... stuck through the entire way though. looking forward to watch more of ur stuff!
The audio itself is recorded in mono so there is no left/right imbalance in terms of actual panning, HOWEVER, the microphone is positioned slightly off-center of my mouth as I keep it to the right instead of directly in front of me as the boom arm would be distracting. This is the only acceptable setup for streaming, but for recording I could definitely deal with the boom arm and just record directly dead center. I did a trial recording of both just now and I did notice the difference, although I'm impressed you are sensitive enough to notice as it is quite subtle! Thanks for letting me know.
I'm not saying poro isn't the best legend, in fact I agree with you. But your spreadsheet is pretty absurd and the math makes no sense. How can all the legends average sub 4.5? Also how can the highest average for 3-2 augments be 4.51. So no matter what legend you pick, you just have a negative average... What?
Because the spreadsheet highlights the one legend / non-legend augment, not all the options you get. This makes it easier to understand the difference between legends. In terms of how the average for 3-2 augments can be 4.51, it's because not a single one of the legends can include all augments on 3-2 because some augments are legend-specific. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some data missing or rounding errors that are causing this from the source site. The website rounds to 2 decimals. I'm not sure what the API rounds to. Furthermore, you would have to take a weighted average for it to be fully accurate as well - that is, you would have to weight each augment based on how many games it was picked relative to the total sample size which is also not done here (because again, I'm not trying to get an understanding of the entire game - just the 1 augment choice). Plus you can't even do that anyway since the 2-1 legend augment data is not shared via the API. If you want a more detailed explanation of the shortcomings of this approach, I recommend reading the thread under the pinned comment. The reality is that legends have a much smaller impact on your game than this even suggests because it only affects 1 of your potential 6 augments. Although it's worth noting that it's not quite that straightforward because you don't actually always see 6 augments since you will refuse to roll a good augment and because sometimes you will ALWAYS roll an augment (e.g: garbage 3-2 / 4-2 legend augments). The spreadsheet isn't absurd - it has been accurate every single patch so far in identifying the meta legends (you can go back and check) - just it overstates that difference because it only focuses on the 1 augment.
Legends were the biggest mistake in TFT history. Especially at the beginning of set 9, they made game so boring and predictable. I hope they will be removed in a new set.
The data shown in this video is from after the B-patch for the record! I stream almost every day on Twitch at www.twitch.tv/gm_blue. Feel free to stop by if you have questions / just want to hang out.
P.S: I also forgot to mention in this video that Caitlyn can be strong in this current meta (13.19b) too by flexing into Vanquishers since an early Jhin 2 / Sett 2 / Ashe 2 can be quite strong.
While this analysis is good it is not comprehensive because you are not accounting for the opportunity cost of being able to choose non-legend specific augments at any phase. You would need to look at the EV of the guaranteed 1+5 random choices seen vs 6 random choice in each augment round.
Right now you are just analyzing getting randomly assigned 1 augment based on your legend and that is not the scenario that is happening. Being able to pick from a pool of options (keep in mind that there cannot be duplicates) drastically changes the probabilities and consequently the EV of each choice.
@@paulmarkbevey Yeah unfortunately this is as far as this analysis will go. There is so much more you can do with it, which I get is your point, but the likelihood it changes the conclusion is minimal. I'm not comfortable from a mathematical standpoint attempting to calculate these probabilities with any level of authority, so this level of analysis is sufficient for myself and I suspect for most people.
As for other considerations if you want to take this line of thought further:
- There are several portals that change augment probabilities from the default probabilities.
- As you mentioned, augments can only be drawn once in a game which causes some strange circumstances with some legends because some legends have augments that can be offered in later stages (e.g: Portable Forge) while others have augments that aren't offered in later stages (e.g: Pumping Up).
- On top of that, 2-1 augments are never tailored while 3-2 and 4-2 augments can be tailored - yet no one knows exactly how this tailoring works mathematically. We just know it decreases your odds of specific augments and increases your odds of specific augments based on your board.
- Risk profiles of players affect how often they roll augments which also affects the number of available augments. Your assumption is there are 6 random choices, but if we really want to be accurate, we should also consider the possibility that a player doesn't roll augments because they meet some set of criteria. What are those criteria?
It goes on and on. I would rather stop here and explain the meta in a simple way than get too hung-up on being "comprehensive" personally. Although I appreciate where you are coming from as it is much more serious topic of concern in research. I think some shortcuts are okay for a game though!
I just got to Grandmaster using urf. Kind of makes me want to change to poro but at the same time it'd feel weird
what comp were you abusing the most to get to GM?
@@Vidiceski Vanquisher, Ionia Ashe and challengers. Only recommend vanquishers or Ashe if ur not extremely contested
i like your content, its mature and well explained, cant wait to watch your stream.
essentially it reverted back to not having the potential legend augment gives you more chances to have better poro augments. the others are still good, but this change made it so good legend augment choices are even more rare now. viable, just requires some more risk/luck to pull it off.
this is why i follow you brother. great info thanks
Can you make a video about basic strategies of TFT like economy and streaks (what is bizarre or what is reasonable to do for a streak)? For example, would it be okay for me to go down to 0 when I have all five of my units in 2-5 to keep and make a 5 streak off of that if I have already slammed my items but am not sure if I will win or not? or what to do when you get an economy start when you get all the money and 1 or 2 items in the 1. stage.
i would only go to 0 if im 100% guarenteed to win at least the 3-4 next round to make up the money you lost which is very rare since some player can get crazy 4 cost a that stage so i wouldn't recommend it but could be a game winning move also in economy starts i would say the better move is to loose streak because you have a item disadvantage. Hope it helps
what do you mean go to 0, you mean roll down to 0 on 2-5? No. That's a waste of time and effort. Your gold is important early on and you need to all in around 4-1 level 7 or partially all in if your board is already upgraded and you just push levels and save gold. You slam items when you fight someone and it looks like you're about to lose. It's okay to slam suboptimal stuff instead of best in slot items to win. I think you're overthinking it a bit too hard, if you get an eco start assuming you're at 10 gold which is what it is, you just let your money rise and you can either open your board and lose streak or just buy units and keep going. I don't get those often but I usually just play normally and keep pushing gold or whatever. But yeah. Keep playing the game, it sounds like you need a bit of experience and to keep learning, it sounds like you're a bit low into bronze or silver (no flame) so just keep playing. These are like micro stuff, don't think you should be overthinking these things. You should just keep playing and learn what you're doing wrong, questions like these you'll figure out on your playthrough. A streaks just a streak. It's good to level up say if you're going against a level 6 or 7 cheese to keep your streak or whatever but rolling down early on to 0 is a throw.
apreciate the tips brother but im too lazy to dabate also i was master last season and im diamond 2 rn so i think i know how to play @@krash6951
I tried playing the urf lottery for ionia and vanq, but it just griefs your stage 1 flexibility to tailor for 2-1. Also saccing a 3-2 augment feels bad. His 4-2 prismatic is amazing for ionia and noxus tho.
i mean thats mad greedy though. dont try to force ionia, vanq just play it naturally. aint worth throwing your whole game. you pretty much get the ionia crest and vanq crest around 4-2 or some shit if u field enough of those units and get lucky.
The work to determine and list EVs - nice stuff. I take it you work/study in a field that uses that skill set?
good video!
cause i realized it's boring and it makes you focus on something specific most of the time
hi, im sure this doesnt effect 99% of ur viewers, but ur audio is lopsided like 45Left/55Right and it really annoyed my ears... stuck through the entire way though. looking forward to watch more of ur stuff!
The audio itself is recorded in mono so there is no left/right imbalance in terms of actual panning, HOWEVER, the microphone is positioned slightly off-center of my mouth as I keep it to the right instead of directly in front of me as the boom arm would be distracting. This is the only acceptable setup for streaming, but for recording I could definitely deal with the boom arm and just record directly dead center. I did a trial recording of both just now and I did notice the difference, although I'm impressed you are sensitive enough to notice as it is quite subtle! Thanks for letting me know.
u dont have to exert the effort for 1 viewer but if you do, thanks! my superpower is sensitive ears (debuff) @@GM_Blue
I'm not saying poro isn't the best legend, in fact I agree with you. But your spreadsheet is pretty absurd and the math makes no sense. How can all the legends average sub 4.5? Also how can the highest average for 3-2 augments be 4.51. So no matter what legend you pick, you just have a negative average... What?
Because the spreadsheet highlights the one legend / non-legend augment, not all the options you get. This makes it easier to understand the difference between legends. In terms of how the average for 3-2 augments can be 4.51, it's because not a single one of the legends can include all augments on 3-2 because some augments are legend-specific. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some data missing or rounding errors that are causing this from the source site. The website rounds to 2 decimals. I'm not sure what the API rounds to. Furthermore, you would have to take a weighted average for it to be fully accurate as well - that is, you would have to weight each augment based on how many games it was picked relative to the total sample size which is also not done here (because again, I'm not trying to get an understanding of the entire game - just the 1 augment choice). Plus you can't even do that anyway since the 2-1 legend augment data is not shared via the API.
If you want a more detailed explanation of the shortcomings of this approach, I recommend reading the thread under the pinned comment. The reality is that legends have a much smaller impact on your game than this even suggests because it only affects 1 of your potential 6 augments. Although it's worth noting that it's not quite that straightforward because you don't actually always see 6 augments since you will refuse to roll a good augment and because sometimes you will ALWAYS roll an augment (e.g: garbage 3-2 / 4-2 legend augments). The spreadsheet isn't absurd - it has been accurate every single patch so far in identifying the meta legends (you can go back and check) - just it overstates that difference because it only focuses on the 1 augment.
If you look at popular team comps the numbers work in a similar way
Legends were the biggest mistake in TFT history. Especially at the beginning of set 9, they made game so boring and predictable. I hope they will be removed in a new set.
To my knowledge riot considers them a success. They were ment to bring in new people and make it easier, and it seems they have
Force the same comp every game
they just need to remove tf
@polarpob7858 nah get rid of Asol and Tahm Kench. Hate people who just fast 9 and throw in random 5 costs
@@MrWhiteKniight skill issue. jus went against that and won twice.