Drafting From a Mid 1st Round Pick | RB in Round 1? | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.ย. 2024
- Drafting From a Mid 1st Round Pick | RB in Round 1? | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice
In today's episode we have the second part in a new 4 part draft strategy series! We'll be taking a look at a draft strategy study I conducted this offseason that analyzed over 2,000,000 teams to determine how you build an optimal team! Today, we take a look at strategy from an early/middle first round pick.
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The Drake London pick to me is where you lost it…take Henry, Williams, or Jacobs, then pair them with Achane or Pacheco and hit WR in rounds 4-5.
Henry or Williams I'd definitely take in that situation, then you shoot for the moon in the 3rd with Achane, because you have your consistent volume monster in the 2nd.
Achane’s a one season wonder and Pacheco ain’t the guy. Drake is gonna absorb all the targets under Cousins. This was the best pick
@@forwork2601 well achane's only been in the NFL 1 season. Not like he's had 3 years of mediocrity to go with the 1 season
@@forwork2601 You find any RBs you like better than those guys in rounds 4-5? I’m not saying I’m in love with Achane or Pacheco, actually quite the opposite…I don’t think I’ve drafted either of them yet this season. But I just think the value at WR is much better
Achane just got more target comp with Jaylen wright who ngl I think is a better prospect, huge bet on him getting enough looks in a loaded offense
I don't understand why everyone is so down on Mike Evans this year. He's never had less than 1000 yards. He's in his second year with Baker. He's shown no signs of slowing down. He's basically a lock for 1000 yards and 6-12 TDs. Why is this not a back end wr1 pick?
It's just fear of the age cliff. When you see your favorite receivers just drop off it changes things. For me it was AJ Green and Julio Jones. Amazing year after year, then just not. Every receiver has it happen to them. It's possible it happens to Evans this year. Not saying it is, but it is possible.
@@andrewmontriel7561and adp is not discounted for that
@@andrewmontriel7561exactly - plus receivers like M. Thomas 😂. With Evans it's more about strategy I believe. It's not that everyone is hating on him but his risk is higher than the potential profit. I look at fantasy as investment strategies; buy low sell high, invest in good players at great values, don't reach for someone that isn't there > creates more risk in later rounds.
Eventually he will fall off. That's a fact.
It’s Dave Canales leaving that is scaring people. He brought the best out of baker and now that he’s gone people are scared of regression.
London in the 2nd over proven RB in great situations seems criminal to me
behind the curve lmao london is an easy pick
@@ivantorres9541why London over the other wrs in the tier?
@@kunalpatel1147 easy. So london is the only Apha WR1 in that group in the same situation as the others. U can keep looking back at production or whatever ur never gonna win in fantasy if ur looking at last year. This is a new year and in that late 2nd london is the only WR is a great situation with very low competition. The rest have tons of question marks in terms of target competition or suspect Qb play. London is ready to break out and out of that whole tier, hes clearly the best bet!
ATL has the easiest schedule this year
No chance London beats mid 2nd round adp.
Why avoid Henry in round 2? He’s ranked at 18 on the site. I know you’d hope to get him round 3, but in most home leagues that seems unlikely, so why avoid taking him at pick 21?
I’ve done a real draft from 4 and went WR, RB, RB and was very happy
I’m at pick 5 in my home league this year and always like how my team turns out when I start Bijan or Breece and then Henry in round 2. I find that there’s tons of good WR value in the middle rounds, so I just start strong at RB and then abandon it for a while
@@LScouser8 plus I don’t love the round 2 WRs this year. I feel just as good about some of the guys going later in the draft
@@SamEichel yeah I’m favouring RB early in most drafts too. I end up liking the team a whole lot more.
Yeah like if you grabbed Henry and then Achane or whatever you’d be stoked. My thought exactly…no chance Henry makes it past the second round in any of my home leagues
Maybe it’s the Eagles fan in me, but I just can’t pass up Devonta Smith in round 5.
I thought it was optimal to go WR through the flex + 1. Is that in a different format?
Not in HPPR 2 WR. In PPR it’s much more valuable to go heavier at WR early
I think Underdog drafts have really messed with our heads. The WR thirst wont be so strong in home leagues. I would take Henry over Chase in non or 1/2 ppr, but its close. Id take Henry over London, Moore, Olave, Nakua, Wilson 1000 times out of 1000 and its not close.
I'd consider Henry over Moore or Olave, but not the other guys. Especially Chase.
@@johnjacobs3601 In half or non PPR you wouldnt even consider it? .5 ppr last 3 years: Henry 13.7 17.9 23.0
Chase 13.3 15.3 15.5
And now Henry joining one of best environments for a RB in NFL....
Honestly, Drake London has given me zero reason to draft him over any of the RBs and many of the other WRs in that tier
Love your vids but I aint gonna hold you those teams were pretty weak, matched the grades imo haha.. As other people have stated I think grabbing a strong top rb instead of drake london would much better round your team if not on underdog
First year in 3 years I am watching you like wtf are you doing. Your picks suck this year. Henry not in the second? Didn’t take Achane in the 3rd? Why
Didn't take Achane in the 3rd? Who did he take? And did you do any listening? He's drafting based on the research he did.
Don’t want to take Henry in 100% of videos. He’s still the best pick in drafts and is my most rostered player. But yea the vid would have been the same as the Monday one if I took Henry in the 2nd again. Better to see different builds imo. You all already know what Henry builds look like
@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA That’s completely fair. I notice you do a ton of 12 team because it is the most common. Myself as well as thousands of other people have home re draft leagues with 10. Could you maybe do a 10-team half PPR mock to show us even with stacked teams what is the best outcome
Drake London is getting a HUGE bump in his projections due to a big improvement in QB. Why isn’t Kyle Pitts?
Pitts is a bumb lol that’s why, getting burned year after year. London has been a stud so far already
Loving this series. I hope you make similar videos with deeper roster settings and maybe superflex closer to the season
I think the ceiling value gained with the Bijan run has me preferring that build over the others, especially with so many good WR picks that could pan out
Is there any significant championship/ playoff differences between the different draft positions?
I believe early picks have a slightly better win and championship rate, but it’s not a massive difference and it also depends a lot on the year
I think you need to have at least two RBs in the first four (probably first three) rounds. Nearly any format, it's impossible to get a RB1 after Round 4 (probably 3). You can find a potential WR1 in Round 5. I want to leave the draft feeling like I definitely have one Top 12 RB, and potentially two Top 12 RBs. For WR, I'm fine if I think I have three to four WR2s with one or two having the potential of being a WR1. You need RBs early because you just can't find one late that doesn't need an injury to be great.
If you dont grab a top rb in 1st 2 rounds you're screwed. Ive seen some experts grab 3 wrs in a row lol. Going against the herd wins. 8-10 years ago grabbing 2 wrs early was considered crazy when everyone was taking RBs. Now its the opposite. People grabbing doo doo Wrs like deebo who had 1 good season in third round.
I am not sold on Drake London, there still Derek Henry and K Williams available. London sill has not produced and Kirk Cousins is coming off a major injury , when will he be ready? Risky!
I love FP for mocking but the issue is...tight end is never going to fall thst far. They just wont. So i understand tsking the valie in these mocks bc they are there but its not going to happen. Even when i change my settings to taking TE super high, they still fall way to far
Can we get the Tank Dell vs DK Metcalf vs Devonta Smith range comparison. I keep wanting Dell over these guys but feels wrong with DK being a #1
and Nabers
I love your breakdowns for players but this roster/build was terrible
Kyren not being mentioned reminds me why this guy missed so much last year
4th out of 12 isn't a "mid round" pick.
I’m taking elite qb like Allen over London every time. If he’s gone hurts has to be considered
Even in a 3wr format? I hate not grabbing Allen lol
I went cmc lamb Gibbs! I remember people yelling at me Gibbs was a reach! I won! Reach for your players if you know how to play!
I still play Non Ppr. (Please no judgement). It seems the lean is always toward WR over RB, no matter the round. Is that simply because it’s half Ppr, or personal preference? How big of a strategy change would it be if it were non ppr? It seems in my leagues, the RB is always the most in demand.
@@jasonbaumgard9995 in standard scoring you really lean towards RB early. I’d almost make it a rule to take 2 in the first 3 rounds. Most people play half or full ppr so that’s why you hear more about WR early
Thank you, that is very helpful to know. Your videos tend to lean half-ppr to generally split the difference, correct?
People taking DJ Moore in the 2nd round is hilarious to me
Yeah we really have no idea how things are going to be divided in Chicago. I do like Caleb as a 2nd qb, if you have a stud starter.
Anyone notice the Amari cooper pick in round 2? Lol
was there an earlier version of this vid, because he's taken in the 4th in this one?
Really love this series and really highlights how bad it can feel when you are almost "forced" into certain positions
Would you rather take Breece Hall if you plan on London round 2?
How do you guys feel about stacking multiple receivers from same team? (St brown/Laporta, London/Pitts) ?
If it's a low-scoring, grinding type, field goal game, then you're not getting lots of scoring. I do believe in stacking a QB/WR with a proven rapport, though.
You’d take London over Henry?
Where do you draft from
Thanks for these mock drafts. It really gets me ready for my draft, to see which players generally go where they go and make a plan from each draft position.
I'll take Kupp over Nico.
Does the Draft Strategy App apply the same to deeper leagues, like 14 team? Or does that change things?
Next year I want to collect closer to 5 million teams. At that point I can separate out by league size. Right now it’s assuming 10 or 12 because there just aren’t enough to single out each league size while also sorting my scoring, WR count and FLEX spots. You can assume it’s super close, but I’d say move RB up a round in all formats. WR won’t fall off as quickly but RB will
@@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA makes sense, thanks!
I really wish I was picking early but after 1.01 😭 having to pick between CMC and Ceedee is rough
I look at ceedees numbers post bye compared to every one else in the league, and I can’t figure out how he’s not the consensus 1.01
@@Itssebastiankoziol man I want to grab him at 1 so bad but then I’m stuck with mid at RB unless I get lucky and cook or Mixon fall to the 2/3 turn
On the flip side the WRs at the 2/3 turn are good but like you don’t think they’re gonna win you the league so it’s super uncomfortable picking at 1 this year
Id rather be at like 3-5 and take Bijan + a good wr in the 2nd
@@duketrippy933 I don’t disagree with anything you said. I took bijan at 4 last year lol(weaseled out a win cuz I’m an addict) but I know what you mean, I’ve been a heavy RB drafter my whole life and have had great success but maaan sometimes I look at the teams I can mock up and consider just punting tf out of rb and hoping I find another raheem + kyren late in the draft lol
Just subscribed. Only a few minutes in and this is awesome work on the optimal research.
Welcome brother
This dude has Saquan over Kyren 😂😂🤡