🔥PREPARE🔥 for Financial Instability. 2021 Prices Incoming!
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 พ.ค. 2024
- Alarming and contradictory financial report from the Bank of Canada warns of risk with need for preparedness in the financial system. 2021 prices are just around the corner as Canada's financial stability is at risk. Recent data shows 2024 residential real estate is worse than previous years. #bankofcanada #prepare #home #financialfreedom #finance #spring
links/references:
www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/05/o...
I am a Remax agent on Vancouver Island. We are seeing the same thing here. Listings are sitting, showings are minimal. Prices coming down.
No they're not. The rich immigrants are on their way.
I’m on VI as well. Can second that 👍🏻
Lies, fearmongering, propaganda.
Finally... fantasy island is getting more realistic
Really? I grew up here and it’s been crazy for so long now😂. This is good news. Are we seeing an increase of listings as well?
Yourself and Mark Mitchell would be an epic collab!
Thanks for clicking!
Totally!!! I follow Mark too and he is great!
It's kind of funny that we all end up watching the same people. Mark Mitchell is a great guy and so is Luke
@@davidlundquist agreed, love all 3 because their analysis' is grounded in data and historical cycles.
@@davidlundquist Who is Luke? I think I'm missing one :)
Rates need to go up, not down. We need to clean up the mess that was created by keeping rates too low for so long before the economy can start to recover and grow.
amen brother/sister
100% agree I say the same thing.
You hit the nail on the head
Don’t worry, rates will stay up for a decade or two. This is just how it works
@@markhoffmanrates are coming down this year. Just because you want something to work a certain way doesn’t make it true
If the BoC rate stays at 5% or close until the end of the year we will start seeing the impact on renewals, currently sitting at < 2%. Going into 2025 we will see more and more, if it keeps anywhere higher than 4%
Maybe that's the intention
The amount of money that will stop going into the economy to serve these renewed mortgages is probably very high. There's no way it won't have a big impact on the overall economy if it happens.
I have a feeling they will hold well into the fall. Let's see.
@@elim7228 Hold hold hold, the market needs correction.
They have to hold against US dollar, can't lower rates if US holds, it's suicide
Thanks for adding Peterborough!
Great points, as always! Thank you Jon!
Totally agree with you on mixed messaging from the BoC. It is like "who are they trying to fool??"
Bank of Canada loves inflation from fraudulent activity that is why it’s so common and widespread. You gotta love a country that allows you to buy your identity
Thanks. Jon. Like ur episodes. Carry on. Watching all ads to support u.
Oh it's insane in New Brunswick, I saw a tiny 1 story 800sq house that is falling apart looks disgusting hoard rat style go for 200k when that would go for like 50k 5 years ago... and I mean, haven't we been in a recession since 2008? Our productivity has been flat since then. Frankly, the rates need to go up, not down. We need the prices to go down, but it would hurt deeply, but we can't keep this cycle going.
Oh yes we can!
I agree, the solution for inflation is more inflation
sounds like we still have too much cash around
Because houses arr uses as collateral for crap commercial debt...
Prices in the Fraser Valley BC (Abbotsford, Langley) are tanking. There are some good deals coming on line for lowballers.
They'd have to go below zero for me to live amongst all that fundamentalist religion.
Great show again Jon,keep up the good work .
clean info and nice graphs!
thanks
That's a mighty fire behind you, Jon. He's coming with fire 🔥!
Great information as per usual thanks
Inertia is a powerful force! It can be applied anywhere, RE as well.
That is the whole reason why ain't seeing sudden off the cliff price reductions. But, the inertia dampens out and decays as the time passes, and then SUDDENLY brings things to a halt. So, we all know what happens next: first shy price reductions, more listings, few showings...and then followed by a hurricane. As simple as that.
Great video as always but can't stop seeing that flame creature waiving just to your right 😅
It looks like a Fire Santa. 😊
Thank you from Nova Scotia.
Why do you skip Winnipeg? It's almost like watching the national weather, they seem to always skip Manitoba... the stats are readily available. If you need stats, I can help! Keep up the good work Jon!
Suggestion for an analysis: did the changes in capital gain tax influence the share of high-end houses in the inventory?
I feel like there are many more higher-end properties being listed in my area, but that's just anecdotal... I don't have much access to broken-down data. I hypothesize that more expensive real estate has a higher chance of falling in the 250k gain or above range, which would put those selling it in a rush. That could push the whole price average up.
Thank you Jon Flynn for all the insight and calling it as it is. Keep up the good work! Having the interest rates below 5% for close to 30 years has really spoiled us rotten and destroyed housing affordability. The time of reckoning is coming.
It's also made all the retirees and savers poor.
Best realtor on TH-cam.
Yes, please do make a video about Montreal please 🙏
There is a new wave of Ontario plates in NS. Anecdotal, but the mixture of vehicles has changed. A lot of them are old cars and in mediocre shape. They used to be mainly high end vehicles previously.
I’ve heard of a few from Ont buying in NB. Investment and moves for retirement. Too sml for a trend but still. Look up quality of med care in NS < Ont. Big factor for me.
@@jmc8076 Many Ontarians are buying houses in NB. A lot of them are "investors" and flippers. Our population has increased a lot in the last four year. Most of those coming from Ontario or are immigrants to Canada.
Our healthcare system was horrible before the influx but it's in shambles now. Over the Christmas holidays, the government declared an emergency at several major hospitals telling people to stay away because they were so understaffed and overcapacity that new patients would not be seen for many days. Most clinics have a 2-3 hour wait time just to be registered and some major hospitals now have a multi-DAY (not hours) wait times. Getting a family doctor can take up to seven years in some cases.
Loads and loads of Ontario plates here in Edmonton too. Same story. Speculators and flippers.
@@TT-fq7plthey will only last so long in Alberta.
Thanks you Jon. Right to the point.
8:05 Do you know if the DOM metrics can only include the ones that have sold? So in a market where half of the listings aren’t selling the DOM actually looks better than a metric that would include them?
Very intresting to watch. Thanks
Well done again. I dont know how difficult this would be for you - but if you could some how include segmentation of condos and detached homes I think that would be very beneficial for a lot. I dont think anyone would be surprised to realize, though huge speculation occurred and occuring in both, the condo market is close to insanity and a lot will prob get flushed here. If we were able to get down to the core of all this I believe the off shore/money laundering activiites would be present here. Thanks for the great vids.
I agree! A closer look at the condo market would be nice .... because there is bad (the housing market in general), very bad (single family homes) and plain ugly (condo market).
Video by Moconomy on same activity in UK. Must watch. Other doc videos incl one for BC (can’t recall name) but just scroll down after you find and click on above and many listed or just search YT.
Rates can't drop much until the US does or the Canadian dollar loses value, and costs go up again. If rates stay high too long, say goodbye to the Canadian economy to the point of deep recession... bit of a pickle were in!
I would love to hear more pricing information for Sudbury, Ontario because the majority of Sudbury Realtors are not transparent to the public. There are very few sales showing on Zolo or elsewhere as compared to other cities.
good analysis
Thanks
In uncertain times, how can one outperform with the S&P 500? my money goal of $3m seems far-fetched and just saving is not an option, do I seek a license advisor to help grow my funds, or wait for a favorable economy? I have barely 5 years to retirement.
patience is your best friend here, although you can benefit from the help of advisors, especially when it comes to smart financing.
Very correct, investing is plain-sailing using a well experienced advisor, and at first-hand experience, I've witnessed my investments compound over 280%, since Jan.2020 amid rona-outbreak, summing up nearly $1m as of today.
this is huge! been a fan of asking questions like Socrates, seeking information and handling certain duties to professionals, my $ 100k index has been shortened by 10% due to inflation over the years and I could really use a help at this point
I take guidance from ''DESIREE RUTH HOFFMAN a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.
very much appreciated, just inputted DESIREE RUTH HOFFMAN on the internet, spotted her consulting page ranked top and was able to schedule a call session. Ive seen commentaries about advisors but not one looks this phenomenal
Lots of people moving to Saskatchewan? The only affordable place left and Manitoba.
It would be interesting to see you do a collaboration with Steve saretsky from Vancouver, bc. He covers the details of Vancouver interestingly and also has a longer show caller the loonie hour.
The housing sector has potential here in Canada, but prices have to come down a lot and be reasonable, the government has blocked single-family homes for too long now and replaced them only with garbage condominiums which nobody wants (obviously nobody can live in those stupid units). The housing sector has to be a normal economic activity and not the field of speculators and so drain all the money from the real economy or a Ponzi scheme like it is now.
But they want more of those boxes .. because "urban density" is the new buzzword (coming right from the WEF).
Be happy..
Great information ,. Many Thanks for keeping it honest and unbiased, Jon
Can you discuss Chatham Kent county pls
Most houses in Canada are shacks worth less than $300,000.
If you remove the crazy "blowoff top" we had in early 2022 in markets like Durham Region, prices are flat since early 2021 so prices are already there. If you say prices are going to 2017-2019 levels, that's a different story. Then there is another 30% drop coming.
I think we will see 20% for sure
I know that Winnipeg is slow to have statistics but, things are crazy here, how about a $289,900 listing selling for $400,000. Most listing here are offers by dates, $299,900 listings go for $35,000 to 50,000 over asking. Maybe you would consider doing Winnipeg stats but with an asterisk noting info is lagging. Thanks.
What happened to the spring market miracle??? It was supposed to save the bag holders? Condos back to a billion dollars! Hahaha
Hi John can give us more information of new law income verification from CRA going to implement or not . If those law implementation what effect on the property price. Thanks
Why relist on the market higher if didn't sell the first time, the market is saying your price is too high if it didn't sell
Is the answer, money and greed?
Not in Calgary. Bubble is alive and well.
Be nice to see you get an agriculture specialist on.
Discuss the current pricing vs rates etc
Because all the buyers are here in Alberta now 😃
Yep. The greedy speculators have moved here, for sure.
Why are you suggesting that rate cuts can drop any time soon? Looking at your own chart, it would make more sense to speculate that this time, the first rate drop should be at the 40 plus months range?
Does new Brunswick not report because the data is bad and weak real-estate market, meaning selling houses is harder there...
Roy Micks from Orillia
mark Mitchell do video with him
I can't believe the Peterborough market hasn't dropped lower yet! You can't escape the crime and drugs in this city what so ever
Ya and interest isnt even close to stopping inflation if real numbers are used. Can dollar has already lost .25% to the mexican peso in inder a year.. mexicos interest is 10%
So we get a couple measly drops this year yet economy dropping even more
Nova Scotia!
Thanks Jon, and it might be they’re worried about jobs, since none is prepared to live without easy money, and this could very well be the catalyst for a housing crash
How many years do we have to wait for 2021 prices? You said a few weeks ago we are only 12-18 months away from 2017 prices. Then again you also said a year ago we were only 12-18 months away from 2018 prices.
Jon
… off topic..
Your skin is glowing !! Share your secret lol
must be some camera trickery. I use the lumispa from nuskin since both my sister and wife are into it. I can hook you up if needed.
Changes in price should really take into account the effect of inflation. If house prices decline 5% and inflation is at 3% the net real decline is 8%. $1m in 2024 is less than $1m in 2019.
If incomes go up in sequence with inflation.
Then yes
In Fraser Valley its more about affordability matter not a price that won’t get better considering how many immigrants came in .
Hi Jon, thanks for all your great content! Living in an apartment waiting for your predictions to come true ;) ! I've asked my agent in Montreal to consider reaching out to you. She and her partner are absolutely amazing. Truly passionate about their mission!
timmmmmbberrrrrrrrrr
Canada doesn’t have a housing crisis. Only desirable areas like Vancouver and Toronto are expensive. Canada is full of affordable cities that people have overlooked.
Winnipeg is still very affordable compared to Vancouver. You can still buy a brand new 3 bedroom 2 bathroom townhome for under 500k. Leaves you plenty of money for a nice SUV for the cold winters.
That usaed to be true but no longer as all the people from Tortonto and Vancouver have bid up prices in the rest of the country.
@@parkerbohnnjust look for listings in Winnipeg, prices are still very affordable
There is no crisis in Calgary, most of the listed properties are selling more then asking price, i dont know how people are getting their mortgages approved and from where people are getting 20% down in calgary market
Everyone fleeing Niagara
@@dman9416why people fleeing Niagara? Alberta isn’t going to solve their problems
When you say the data doesn't support the theory that the market is going to take off again, is alberta the exception of that? I'm moving out of bc to purchase in alberta soon and wondering if house prices there are projected to continue to rise as everyone tries to run away from other provinces
Why you going to Alberta? It’s not going to solve your problems
Because I need a house for my family and I can atleast get into the housing market there...either that or continue to rent for the rest of my life living in bc
@@alexmuzio23 renting somewhere that you actually want to live, where your family is, is better than moving somewhere you don’t want to just so that you can “own” a house. The bank technically owns it and you pay out your a s s in interest. Especially now. Bc is a beautiful province. Silly logic all of you seem to have that think the grass will be greener.
Because I'm not interested in renting when I'm 65 that's why. Because I'm interested in leaving something for my kids when i'm gone. I'm willing to sacrifice the beauty of bc for those things
@@alexmuzio23 good luck. Let me know when you’re moving back. The reality isn’t what it seems. I speak from experience.
My initial reaction after 1 min of vid is... this reminds me of what's happening in other assets. E.g. SP500 is up led by magnificent 7, followed by the other 493 companies (top 7 gave back some gains). Crypto, led by Bitcoin and followed by Eth and Alts. Same logic for RE, Ontario/BC led, followed by smaller cities. What's next? I suppose we should keep our eyes on the big players, the trend is your friend...?
it also aligns with what you were saying about RE, they are becoming more of a investment/trading asset, less of a home where you stay in for >25 years +
If noone is calling or looking at your listing, it isn't priced right
Interest rate cuts are coming this year. Unfortunately people will see a measly 0.25 drop and rush to buy which is illogical and there will be a short but unsustainable rise in prices.
What do you think will happen if Canada cuts rates against USD, what currency do you think oil is purchased in or all the goods that come from USA, you thought inflation was bad now wait until the cad loses 50% against USD, this is why Canada will not lower against USD
@@chrisfree2000 canada has historically been first to cut and first to increase. There's a gap in interested rates that can be sustained...0.25 to 0.75 isn't detrimental. Stop being a youtube economist.
@@audittheauditorsboth countries raised at same time March 22, devaluation of dollar is in synch with lowering rates, decrease purchasing power and watch inflation rise, simple economics maybe not for you though
@@chrisfree2000 Lol. Canada gets over 65 percent of its goods from counties other than the US. The CDN dollar hasn't seen weaknesses against other currencies including the euro and Yen. Some imports from the US will go up if interest rates diverge significantly more than 1 percent. Plus the US economy is inevitably starting to see weakness which will lower the USD thus the gap between currencies won't be as significant for too long. Stop living in a moment of time and look at the future dynamics
@@audittheauditors sooo much error in everything you said, 49% of imports into Canada are from US, US economy vs Canadian is not even on same page of comparison their GDP are vastly far apart, Canada ranks dead last absolutely dead last in GDP among developed nations, 90% of jobs created were public sector, Canada is the only country in the world to have borrowed money to buy MBS, that's like going to payday loan to pay credit card off,
unheard of in all history, they are doing a hailmary to keep housing afloat as it's only thing keeping frail economy alive, Canada cut oil production to go green, it cut its main money supply, I can keep going, don't forget everytime you pump gas at your 1.7$ liter remember it was bought on the petrol dollar hence USD :) 😁
All the commentors here thinking that real estate is the only aspect of the economy. Smh.
All time highs... Jon's narrative hasn't come true yet after years of failed prophecy... BUT JUST WAIT SOON! Just wait another few more years lol
The crash is always 12-18 months away according to Jon. He repeats that every year with a new video saying 2017 or 2018 prices are coming soon. Now it's 2021 prices I guess.
You sound like Ben Bernanke in 2005 and we all know how that ended, keep that head in the sand :)
@@chrisfree2000 you sound like someone who is always waiting for the crash that never comes. This aint 2005 and this aint the USA subprime lending crisis.
@@johnnylongstocking183 you are right this is not 2005, this is Canada that is the only country in the world that borrowed money from boc not just any amount but 75% of its forecasted deficit to buy MBS, that's like going to payday loan to borrow money to pay credit card, oh it doesn't end there Canada ranks absolutely dead last on GDP among developed nations, there is zero growth in Canada, oh and 90% of job growth was public sector, Canada also highest GDP to debt ratio, you are right this is not 2005 and Canada will never be the USA is GDP will never even come close, this is far worse then you can begin to imagine, the great reset :)
@@chrisfree2000 you are cute with those buzz words but don't actually know what they mean, or how to use them.
Several waterfronts in the Outaouais listed in the Mid $400k dropping down $50k. On average lots of drops of 5 to 10%. Yet new listings coming up around covid peak prices. So that tells me the realtors are still advising their clients to price unrealistically and there are still too many clueless buyers with no once of patience and common sense.
The recession is already here, all you have to do is go look at every single high-end car Dealerships like Audi, Mercedes and BMW, and they have tons of supply. Audi this week is desperately trying to unload their 2024 model year by offering anywhere from 2 1/2 to 3 1/2% interest cuts to financing
Diff sources: Q4/25 to 27 for 🫧 📌 in RE values. But as you and others say like stocks prob be preceded by a (bad) event. See history. PTB also use these times for change. Will waiting buyers qualify or like past key times incl 2008? Be careful what you ask for? Some US bank CEOs say world markets incl west could go sideways for 10 yrs. Time will tell.
FEARMONGERER
Ehhhh I don't think so
Ontario and Van are due for a correction. If they don't lower rates before the next 50% of buyers renew they're deeply deeply fucked.
@@JeffSSartor indeed sir
No offense sir but how do you survive in the real estate world with your pessimistic attitude? I mean, do you tell every client not to buy?
There is a reason he is also complaining on Twitter about how slow the market is. His business has completely tanked.
Previous charts and graphs are a very inaccurate reflection of today's markets. Today's financial picture is totally different, crypto currencies have taken trillions out of main street financial institutions. Lowering rates will drive the bond/treasures rates down, American 2yr- 4.87/ 10yr- 4.36. The inverted bond yield is over 500+ days, the 3 other times this happened 1929,1974 and 2008 . The only option to fix this is for governments to buy the debt, drive rates down and inflation will go higher 👆. We are in very turbulent times and there isn't an easy solution, the can has been kicked to the end of the road. The only thing I would recommend is physical gold/silver and hang on tight cause things are going to get worse..😮😮
We have been in a recession for a long time now, it's just not noticeable with all the money printing money laundering....