Access Tickerdata and my Spreadsheets: tickerdata.com/ Get a $50 coupon + 7 day free trial to Seeking Alpha: seekingalpha.me/Dividendology Join my free newsletter! dividendology.substack.com/ The broker I use: www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=dividendologyPY1&url=%2Fen%2Fwhyib%2Foverview.php
why do you project the FCF growth rate for NKE to be 12,5%? it is too high imo. from 2013 to 2023 it is 9,6% and fair value is again about $67. and the same for SBUX - 10 average FCF CAGR less then 8% and you are projecting 50% increase to 12%. it does not make any sence to be soo optimistic imo of course
Generally speaking I think there are reasons why these stock are trading around the 52w low price.. and most do the assumptions used to estimate the intrinsic value are quite optimistic 😅
I always wonder myself that ad well for this channel. The DCF's seem to be insanely generalized with the growth rates almost always being around 12% (both Cash cows, dogs and stars) and the discount rate is always set at 8% even though thos should realistically be different per company.
@@deeptoot1453 a different approach, to me, is an important sign of a good channel.. a channel that is bringing real value analysis, hypothesis and estimations
Hi dividendology, Fist of all love your videos. But i have a question Could you explain to me, wouldn't be better to invest in growth with like schg, qqq and voo(to still track the market) for like 10 to 15 years and then switch to dividend growth. Im confused of what should i do a accout focused on growth then switch to dividend growth or just stay by the dividend growth all time. Thanks
You didn’t ask me but I noticed no one replied so take it for what it’s worth. Regardless of your investing philosophy and goals, a well balanced portfolio will serve you well. If you’re new to investing, creating a nice foundation of growth and dividend ETFs would be a great place to start. As you learn more, start adding companies that make sense to you. Either way, growth AND dividends should be a part of your portfolio.
SBUX is currently in a nasty downtrend. It has a high probability of taking out its 2022 low of $70 by the eoy. If you're a long term holder that could be a great entry point. I'm planning on doing a video analyzing the SBUX chart.
Thanks for the pointless correction. Too bad for you you're incorrect anyway. It went up in 2023 to easily over 100 twice. Your initial post says 'current downtrend' to which I was replying. I was agreeing with you anyway duh.
Thank you for your content. I know you have already dug into the 3M lawsuits. They (3) have been settled and payout plans are in place that will spread out over several years. You have already made a video on how much $ they have, projected to make, and how you feel the company will come out of this, which for a lack of better words will be "ok". Also, the spin off will strengthen their balance sheet. I can see 3M doing some type of internal working, growth push, or even selling off some of their smaller unknown companies to keep from cutting a dividend. They have a new CEO now, I am optimistic on 3M.
Good lord, lots of critiques. Valuation is based on assumptions and there’s no method thats exact. They’re all good buying opportunities at the moment. From my personal experience, I’ve lost more money by waiting for an exact price, meaning I missed the buying opportunity, to watch the stock shoot up 30~50% in 3-6 months
You failed to mention that WBA is being audited by the IRS...I sold out a month ago at a loss and am not looking back. Won't buy the stock until it hits around $10 (and that's if they're quarterly numbers improve)
Idk I think the economy will get worse before it gets better, and I think paying a premium for coffee that Starbucks charge will be something people will cut out. Giving it room to drop more. Don't get me wrong in the long run starbucks isn't going anywhere and will be fine, but this is one I will wait a bit longer on
Awesome video, appreciate the research & editing that went into this! I’ve been buying $SBUX on a weekly basis…don’t know when I’ll start a position in $UNH but I do want it in my portfolio lol 🤑 I have to do some research on it first 🤔
On the medical company side of stocks, I have been looking at demographics in countries and the results of slowing birthrates and an aging population, it seems that since people spend more on healthcare when they are old, and a country the country is ageing, i will be betting that medical stocks will further increase regarldess of demographic economy related stagnation and the USA has a healthy birthrate thanks to its large inward migration. On another note, Could you take a look at dividend stocks related to the recent manufacturing reshoring into the US, like semiconductor manufacturing and related industries to supply it? Great video!
The sneaker community has been crapping on nike recently, favoring adidas and new balance as of late. Also, the shoe market as a whole is in the middle of a major downturn. Not sure if nike is a buy currently, but it will be eventually.
@@Dividendology i think there is understandable confusion here. When i go to market watch or yahoo finance they show 52 week range as ~ 71 to 96 putting today's price near the high. The site you showed had a completely different range of ~ 85 - 113.
Regarding 3M. Let me teach you some math and economics. If the rate of inflation is below the dividend yeld, the company is generating you revenue above the rate of inflation and if you add the dividend growth, you will have a higher dividend yield and also above the rate of inflation. Yes it may be a problem regarding the sustainability of the dividend.
In year 1, yes. But the purchasing power of those dividend payments decreases each year the dividend growth is lower than the rate of inflation. If you are a long term investor, that is not good.
@@Dividendology haha I know but I was talking in general. Is there a guide explaining all these terms you use? I am new into investing and english is my second language.
Access Tickerdata and my Spreadsheets: tickerdata.com/
Get a $50 coupon + 7 day free trial to Seeking Alpha: seekingalpha.me/Dividendology
Join my free newsletter! dividendology.substack.com/
The broker I use: www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=dividendologyPY1&url=%2Fen%2Fwhyib%2Foverview.php
I’m trying to use your dashboard but it’s showing someone else’s portfolio? How do I link mine?
You don’t have any actual tutorials on getting your dashboard setup and i don’t understand how you link your account with the dashboard
heres the tutorial: th-cam.com/video/1NvPd8iN8SE/w-d-xo.html
Enjoy! :)
Nice to finally see someone mentioning UNH. This is a compounding machine at a discount price!
Looks like it. I’m going to be looking at it closer over the next few days.
@@Dividendology UHC is recovering from a huge ransomware event that occurred in Feb. Don't know how that might help or hurt outlook
why do you project the FCF growth rate for NKE to be 12,5%? it is too high imo. from 2013 to 2023 it is 9,6% and fair value is again about $67. and the same for SBUX - 10 average FCF CAGR less then 8% and you are projecting 50% increase to 12%. it does not make any sence to be soo optimistic imo of course
Generally speaking I think there are reasons why these stock are trading around the 52w low price.. and most do the assumptions used to estimate the intrinsic value are quite optimistic 😅
Idk, maybe it's just for the content, because these projections don't make sense
I always wonder myself that ad well for this channel. The DCF's seem to be insanely generalized with the growth rates almost always being around 12% (both Cash cows, dogs and stars) and the discount rate is always set at 8% even though thos should realistically be different per company.
@@deeptoot1453 a different approach, to me, is an important sign of a good channel.. a channel that is bringing real value analysis, hypothesis and estimations
Hi dividendology,
Fist of all love your videos.
But i have a question
Could you explain to me, wouldn't be better to invest in growth with like schg, qqq and voo(to still track the market) for like 10 to 15 years and then switch to dividend growth.
Im confused of what should i do a accout focused on growth then switch to dividend growth or just stay by the dividend growth all time.
Thanks
You didn’t ask me but I noticed no one replied so take it for what it’s worth. Regardless of your investing philosophy and goals, a well balanced portfolio will serve you well. If you’re new to investing, creating a nice foundation of growth and dividend ETFs would be a great place to start. As you learn more, start adding companies that make sense to you. Either way, growth AND dividends should be a part of your portfolio.
Just rebought into SBUX today. I'll be adding to UNH soon.
SBUX is currently in a nasty downtrend. It has a high probability of taking out its 2022 low of $70 by the eoy. If you're a long term holder that could be a great entry point. I'm planning on doing a video analyzing the SBUX chart.
I hope it does go down to $70. I started a small position at $90
It's a temporary down trend thanks to current events in Middle East politics.
@@Mark.remarking the down trend actually started in January of 2022
Thanks for the pointless correction. Too bad for you you're incorrect anyway. It went up in 2023 to easily over 100 twice. Your initial post says 'current downtrend' to which I was replying. I was agreeing with you anyway duh.
Most are solid with exception of WBA and MMM, their 52 week low is going to be their 52 week average
Yeah I also think WBA will cut its dividend down some at some point. MMM I'm not as sure about and do hold a position in
After loosing 50% I sold 3M at $91. I doubt I will regret selling it.
what do you think about MCD?
I don't go there anymore
What about infrastructure reit (Crown Castle, American Tower, ...) ? Can be good to have your analysis on those high yield stocks. Thanks.
Thank you for your content.
I know you have already dug into the 3M lawsuits. They (3) have been settled and payout plans are in place that will spread out over several years. You have already made a video on how much $ they have, projected to make, and how you feel the company will come out of this, which for a lack of better words will be "ok". Also, the spin off will strengthen their balance sheet. I can see 3M doing some type of internal working, growth push, or even selling off some of their smaller unknown companies to keep from cutting a dividend. They have a new CEO now, I am optimistic on 3M.
What the heck happened to Walgreens? They used to be a powerhouse stock. Just recently booted from the DJIA.
Please make a video of TGT vs KR and which would you buy, I you would buy
FYI 3M already settled the cases of the air plugs and water supplies and they also discounted the stock of Solvento by the date of your video 😬
Good lord, lots of critiques. Valuation is based on assumptions and there’s no method thats exact. They’re all good buying opportunities at the moment. From my personal experience, I’ve lost more money by waiting for an exact price, meaning I missed the buying opportunity, to watch the stock shoot up 30~50% in 3-6 months
You failed to mention that WBA is being audited by the IRS...I sold out a month ago at a loss and am not looking back. Won't buy the stock until it hits around $10 (and that's if they're quarterly numbers improve)
I think UNH is one of the top 3 dividend growth stocks to invest at the moment, don't you agree? With fenomenal metrics
I bought some sbux last week. I love it under 88$
Idk I think the economy will get worse before it gets better, and I think paying a premium for coffee that Starbucks charge will be something people will cut out. Giving it room to drop more. Don't get me wrong in the long run starbucks isn't going anywhere and will be fine, but this is one I will wait a bit longer on
Slowed, not slown. Great video!
Great job!
Recently discovered you, I love your videos!! Please keep it up, you're motivating me to build my portfolio!
Awesome video, appreciate the research & editing that went into this! I’ve been buying $SBUX on a weekly basis…don’t know when I’ll start a position in $UNH but I do want it in my portfolio lol 🤑 I have to do some research on it first 🤔
A private healthcare company stock price is dependent on federal government payments?
On the medical company side of stocks, I have been looking at demographics in countries and the results of slowing birthrates and an aging population, it seems that since people spend more on healthcare when they are old, and a country the country is ageing, i will be betting that medical stocks will further increase regarldess of demographic economy related stagnation and the USA has a healthy birthrate thanks to its large inward migration. On another note, Could you take a look at dividend stocks related to the recent manufacturing reshoring into the US, like semiconductor manufacturing and related industries to supply it? Great video!
How do we get access to the spreadsheet
You can download it by joining TickerData.com !
Thank you for the video! I've been buying Starbucks lately- and this video made me feel even better about it!! And motivated to keep going! :)
best of luck!
I bought Sbux at 86.53 today- it’s a bargain
total bargain, Mr. Market is crazy with this prices.
100% agree
I bought unh and sbux, as someone who's still learning, i consider this a huge moral boost, thank you
Careful with MMM due to recent spinoff in early April.
Yep
United sure, sbux will probably struggle a few months then be golden imo.
Great video 🎉
I’ll go with SBUX
Thoughts on khc?
@dividendology what is wrong with BXMT on your mind? Almost 13% yield and they only miss rare div date(pay half)
How do I access the ticker data link, I already paid for the 8 dollar subscription..
Here’s a quick tutorial! :)
th-cam.com/video/_ktIP6-O_eA/w-d-xo.htmlsi=vmyrK2ffX4SsvwfX
SBUX, MCD, MMM and PFE are crazy cheap now
Do you ever consider ethics when investing? I would rather buy arms dealer stocks than american health care companies.
I just wrote an option on SBUX
Love your channel, keep up they great work you are doing!
Thanks so much!
Walgreens and 3M will be cutting dividends entirely in less than 2 years.
Book it. Terrible investment options.
The sneaker community has been crapping on nike recently, favoring adidas and new balance as of late. Also, the shoe market as a whole is in the middle of a major downturn. Not sure if nike is a buy currently, but it will be eventually.
hmm, MMM is 1% from 52w high not low.
their 52 week high is $113. They just recently had a spinoff which may affect what you're seeing though
Walgreens needs to reinvent themselves urgently.
sbux: ima hit 102 week low
Not sure how the hell wba valued at $1.52 😂🤣 that’s pretty much bankruptcy and that won’t happen for decades atleast
Costco
Havnt watched the video yet but 3M is at a 52 week HIGH
Umm nope
@@Dividendologywasn't there a spinoff from 3M recently? Because the stock price suddenly was $10-15 lower without a big negative day.
@@Dividendology i think there is understandable confusion here. When i go to market watch or yahoo finance they show 52 week range as ~ 71 to 96 putting today's price near the high. The site you showed had a completely different range of ~ 85 - 113.
VOO!
Regarding 3M. Let me teach you some math and economics. If the rate of inflation is below the dividend yeld, the company is generating you revenue above the rate of inflation and if you add the dividend growth, you will have a higher dividend yield and also above the rate of inflation. Yes it may be a problem regarding the sustainability of the dividend.
In year 1, yes. But the purchasing power of those dividend payments decreases each year the dividend growth is lower than the rate of inflation. If you are a long term investor, that is not good.
whats a point of buying 1.8% divy when treasury and savings pay 5-6% 😂.
Good question. This video explains: th-cam.com/video/GQHe7LejhEg/w-d-xo.html
Do you have a video on your channel explaining terms like "52 weeks low"?
52 week low means it’s the lowest the stock has traded over the last year :)
@@Dividendology haha I know but I was talking in general. Is there a guide explaining all these terms you use? I am new into investing and english is my second language.
not at the moment, but maybe I'll put a guide together! :)
@@Dividendology that would be great thank you
3m is not a buy. It’s a sell yall.. get out
I can see a dividend cut in their future
@@Dividendology 💯
Starbucks has gotten too political. Its sun is setting.
LOL you're copying the guy who stole from you. I like that LOL.
Nope. He stole this video and thumbnail format from me. I made videos like this over 18 months ago.
Ahh ok sorry I never noticed.
Can you take legal action?
Unfortunately most likely not, but I may explore options
Who stole from him?
Shouldn't we focus more on more recent lows and check for overvaluation to designate the stocks to monitor for a more appropriate insertion?
I admit I scared still on walgreens but I know I have to dca. To much debt.
I’m not a fan of WBA
look at the Under-armor stock. I think it's better now than NKE