Dunno if you will look at this but congratz for winning Tier 1 con this year, hope you enjoy the timetwister, your performance at the finals was really good.
One key point for a good analysis is considering not only the win rate after a wheel is cast, but the win rate *difference* after that. Of course that’s virtually impossible to calculate, but if I have 0 cards in hand after casting a wheel, maybe I’ll win 38% of the time afterwards, but my winrate before the wheel resolves is virtually zero…
This is something I've actually thought about a lot, I'm newer to CDH so I've really been thinking about whether it's more valuable for you to look at seven new cards or if it's more risky to let your three opponents also look at seven new cards, im glad im not the only one questioning this! Super helpful!
I'd, also like to suggest defining payoff in the article, because while "narset, notion thief, hullbreacher" are fairly straightforward, I would not have thought of "turn 1" as a payoff without opening the spreadsheet.
A suggestion when publishing data: do not include only the % (for example in the first graphs shown, you mention the numbers later). The number of events is very important to trust or not the data. You can compare the % of use and win rate by channel and by cards. In an ideal world of data collection it would be nice to compare the "win rate" of each card with cards of the same resource cost. For example Wheel of Fortune vs Jeska's Will. Finally another idea, here you present usage data but it would be nice to know what is the % of decks that have included the card and compare this with the usage. Even in that ideal world with whether that card has been available to the player or not.
My bias coming into this video - wheels are good (especially in high card quality decks) but hard to play “correctly” My takeaway - wheels might be good, there’s so much context and it’s best to think about cards in context for deck selection rather than a universal dogma
This was really interesting! Tbh I'm very surprised to see the data seems to point towards what I would have assumed for the answer to this question! Really thought the average rate of losing would likely be higher
You are agreeing w this? That a card giving you a 38% chance of winning a 4 player game is bad? That’s without a payoff btw. It’s 20% higher w some synergy piece. These are bad cards? Am I twisted up somewhere? I’m gonna hit people up who I respect in the community until someone straightens me out. I can’t be like the Einstein of cedh, right? Or the rain man lol. So I must be missing something Or is this some sorta group think that I avoided indoctrination in by not being deeply enough entrenched in the community? Do you see what I’m seeing? Do you see what I am missing? What’s happening here?
Wait. Maybe you are saying “you are surprised to see that wheels actually do increase your win %”? I shoulda finished the video and my coffee before commenting at all. Didn’t mean to come at you all hard if it felt like that. 🖖love your channel Namaste
I usuakky use windfall in my decks, but only when i run something like th sphinx that allows you to draw 2 cards for each enemy draw, smothering tithe, narset or both. If i need cards usually everyone else does.
In my mind, casting a wheel is only good, or especially good, if you have a Smothering Tithe, Narset, Alms Collector, Notion Thief, or similar taxing/controlling pieces to make the wheel much more beneficial for you only. When used that way, it is absolutely a combo piece for controlling the game. If you are looking for just card advantage, wheels are not it. Giving 7 (or however many) new cards to each of your opponents is not giving you an advantage.
It’s too painful to watch These are two of my favorite content creators and I’m just screaming at the screen. How can you be missing this? I literally don’t understand. Am I missing something or is this some sort of mass hypnosis? What is happening here? What % of games does the average player win in cEdh? ~ 25%? seems right, no? What % of games does the average player who cast a wheel win? 38% And we are just universally taking this to mean wheels are bad in cEdh? Someone straighten me out please
Guys guys guys.. this is kinda silly. I literally just had my mind changed by this video. I’m gonna play more wheels. I thought they were ok. Prob only play them in real fast decks? Cause you have to pay the mana and you aren’t the only one gaining advantage and you often can’t use the most resources the soonest. This video literally convinced me to put a wheel in my non breach Malcolm Tana and put the wheel of fortune back in my version of Malcom Kediss (also not a breach deck) You guys are missing something. There is a hive mind thing going on blinding very smart people to fairly obvious truths right in front of their eyes I think. Let me try it this way; Whoever among you have a > 38% win rate over a very large sample size.. you should consider cutting wheels. Although you’ll be exactly the players who play them w good timing and in the right decks.
WOAH WOAH WOAH! Hold the phone. This is exactly what I thought people might be doing w “wheel thinking”.. in a 4 player game the person ONLY wins the game 38% of the time? Come now Ken. I know you are a smart guy. I know you are. I mean it. I’m 100% sure you are. So why don’t you go back over that statement and see if you maybe can look at that information in a different light. If I cast swords to plowshares what is my win rate after? On average? About 25%? What about channeling Boseju? 25% ish? Maybe a bit less as I’m going down resources to the AVERAGE PLAYER (this IS the way to think about it btw.. am I going up or down relative to the AVERAGE player at the table. This is a 4 player game. If there was a card that said “win the game 38% of the time” for 3 mana and you didn’t play it in a 4 player game then you are either MUCH MUCH MUCH better than I am (I’m tempted to say impossibly better than I am) or your math sense is squishy. I do think most cedh players could take a year off to study poker and come back w at least the actual definition of game theory and maybe the ability to solve the equilibrium for some simple toy game and at least know what equity is and how it affects the cedh scape. Love you Ken and I’m only a few minutes in and maybe you are about to turn on a dime and change your position. If not my man maybe we should talk. You may have some sort of bias clouding your judgement or something.🤷♂️ Sorry if I sounded cocky or snarky I just can’t get anyone to hear these words and it doesn’t make any sense to me. Namaste friends 🖖
Dunno if you will look at this but congratz for winning Tier 1 con this year, hope you enjoy the timetwister, your performance at the finals was really good.
thank you so much!
One key point for a good analysis is considering not only the win rate after a wheel is cast, but the win rate *difference* after that.
Of course that’s virtually impossible to calculate, but if I have 0 cards in hand after casting a wheel, maybe I’ll win 38% of the time afterwards, but my winrate before the wheel resolves is virtually zero…
38% of 25% is incorrect. If you cast a wheel your average win rate is 38% for that given game. On average a cEDH deck has around a 25% win rate
These are decent odds for a single card
This is something I've actually thought about a lot, I'm newer to CDH so I've really been thinking about whether it's more valuable for you to look at seven new cards or if it's more risky to let your three opponents also look at seven new cards, im glad im not the only one questioning this! Super helpful!
You need more subs, this type of content is highly underrated
ty so much!
@@StackedEDH no no, thank you for making this kind of content and being an amazing person in general
I looked at the spreadsheet and would like to call out "Killed another player who cast doomsday" as my favorite payoff entry.
I'd, also like to suggest defining payoff in the article, because while "narset, notion thief, hullbreacher" are fairly straightforward, I would not have thought of "turn 1" as a payoff without opening the spreadsheet.
A suggestion when publishing data: do not include only the % (for example in the first graphs shown, you mention the numbers later). The number of events is very important to trust or not the data.
You can compare the % of use and win rate by channel and by cards.
In an ideal world of data collection it would be nice to compare the "win rate" of each card with cards of the same resource cost. For example Wheel of Fortune vs Jeska's Will.
Finally another idea, here you present usage data but it would be nice to know what is the % of decks that have included the card and compare this with the usage. Even in that ideal world with whether that card has been available to the player or not.
Great and very important topic! 👌
Love this kind of analysis
My bias coming into this video - wheels are good (especially in high card quality decks) but hard to play “correctly”
My takeaway - wheels might be good, there’s so much context and it’s best to think about cards in context for deck selection rather than a universal dogma
This was really interesting! Tbh I'm very surprised to see the data seems to point towards what I would have assumed for the answer to this question! Really thought the average rate of losing would likely be higher
You are agreeing w this?
That a card giving you a 38% chance of winning a 4 player game is bad? That’s without a payoff btw. It’s 20% higher w some synergy piece.
These are bad cards?
Am I twisted up somewhere? I’m gonna hit people up who I respect in the community until someone straightens me out. I can’t be like the Einstein of cedh, right? Or the rain man lol. So I must be missing something
Or is this some sorta group think that I avoided indoctrination in by not being deeply enough entrenched in the community?
Do you see what I’m seeing? Do you see what I am missing?
What’s happening here?
Wait. Maybe you are saying “you are surprised to see that wheels actually do increase your win %”? I shoulda finished the video and my coffee before commenting at all.
Didn’t mean to come at you all hard if it felt like that.
🖖love your channel
Namaste
Twister and windfall are boss in urza 💯
I usuakky use windfall in my decks, but only when i run something like th sphinx that allows you to draw 2 cards for each enemy draw, smothering tithe, narset or both. If i need cards usually everyone else does.
In my mind, casting a wheel is only good, or especially good, if you have a Smothering Tithe, Narset, Alms Collector, Notion Thief, or similar taxing/controlling pieces to make the wheel much more beneficial for you only. When used that way, it is absolutely a combo piece for controlling the game. If you are looking for just card advantage, wheels are not it. Giving 7 (or however many) new cards to each of your opponents is not giving you an advantage.
Would you consider selling signed Krark the Thumbless?
Hi! you haven't upload a video in months, I'm hopeing that everyting it's going fine.
It’s too painful to watch
These are two of my favorite content creators and I’m just screaming at the screen.
How can you be missing this? I literally don’t understand.
Am I missing something or is this some sort of mass hypnosis? What is happening here?
What % of games does the average player win in cEdh?
~ 25%?
seems right, no?
What % of games does the average player who cast a wheel win?
38%
And we are just universally taking this to mean wheels are bad in cEdh?
Someone straighten me out please
Here to represent the thumbless. New video instant like and share
Great video
Guys guys guys.. this is kinda silly.
I literally just had my mind changed by this video.
I’m gonna play more wheels.
I thought they were ok. Prob only play them in real fast decks? Cause you have to pay the mana and you aren’t the only one gaining advantage and you often can’t use the most resources the soonest.
This video literally convinced me to put a wheel in my non breach Malcolm Tana and put the wheel of fortune back in my version of Malcom Kediss (also not a breach deck)
You guys are missing something. There is a hive mind thing going on blinding very smart people to fairly obvious truths right in front of their eyes I think.
Let me try it this way;
Whoever among you have a > 38% win rate over a very large sample size.. you should consider cutting wheels. Although you’ll be exactly the players who play them w good timing and in the right decks.
Love you guys and I appreciate your insights but please get some better microphones
WOAH WOAH WOAH! Hold the phone. This is exactly what I thought people might be doing w “wheel thinking”.. in a 4 player game the person ONLY wins the game 38% of the time? Come now Ken. I know you are a smart guy. I know you are. I mean it. I’m 100% sure you are. So why don’t you go back over that statement and see if you maybe can look at that information in a different light.
If I cast swords to plowshares what is my win rate after? On average? About 25%? What about channeling Boseju? 25% ish? Maybe a bit less as I’m going down resources to the AVERAGE PLAYER (this IS the way to think about it btw.. am I going up or down relative to the AVERAGE player at the table.
This is a 4 player game. If there was a card that said “win the game 38% of the time” for 3 mana and you didn’t play it in a 4 player game then you are either MUCH MUCH MUCH better than I am (I’m tempted to say impossibly better than I am) or your math sense is squishy.
I do think most cedh players could take a year off to study poker and come back w at least the actual definition of game theory and maybe the ability to solve the equilibrium for some simple toy game and at least know what equity is and how it affects the cedh scape.
Love you Ken and I’m only a few minutes in and maybe you are about to turn on a dime and change your position. If not my man maybe we should talk. You may have some sort of bias clouding your judgement or something.🤷♂️
Sorry if I sounded cocky or snarky I just can’t get anyone to hear these words and it doesn’t make any sense to me.
Namaste friends 🖖
ρɾσɱσʂɱ
Hey did you quit your channel because you're able to take massive profits on crypto?