Scientists predict solar price falls will see over 100 million homes go off grid
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 พ.ย. 2023
- Scientists predict solar price falls will see over 100 million homes go off grid
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Hi Sam. Sorry to contradict you but here in the UK you will not be able to go "off grid" in the winter as there is not enough sunlight. I have a solar array and in the summer it produces 150% of my electrical requirement but it only produces 10% of my requirement in the winter. As for charging an EV you have the same problem - lots of electricity in the summer but very little in the winter. To put it in perspective to charge say a Tesla model 3 with 50Kw battery in the summer with a 10Kwp array (around 50 Square meters -very large array for a private dwelling) would take around 15 hours (effectively 2 days). In the winter it would take about 10 to 15 days and this assumes that all the energy goes into the car and not used by the house. The problem is not cost by physics.
Great post but keep in mind that most people only use about 12 kilowatt hours or less per day for driving. Only 1% of drives exceed that amount.
I also think they are being overly optimistic about solar and underestimating the extra costs that governments will tack on to it
Oh one of the comment, and 10 years is expected that 25 to 30 square meters will put out the same power as 50 square meters due today.
@@macmcleod1188 in the UK you're quite privaliged to have a roof that large. My useable roof area is only 18 sqm and that with East and West facing pitches.
@eclecticcyclist so today that would cover 40% of your power needs and in 7 years perhaps 75% of your power needs.
I'm still nibbling at solar. I can run my computer, lights and fan all day or a 5000btu a/c for 2 hours and 15 minutes. That cost $700.
The improvement curve and cost drop curves are great.
@@macmcleod1188 Are you trying to tell me that my power need are going to almost halve over the next 7 years and I haven't even got an EV yet?
Hi Sam - Love your videos and I am a subscriber. That said the drop in the cost of solar panels and battery storage you speak of is not happening here in Las Vegas. I got a quote this year. $35,000 to put solar on my house. Interest rate 9%. We don't qualify for the governments credit scheme as we are on a relatively low fixed income. Our power bill on AVG per mo is $272. Changing to solar on our roof and our monthly payment is around $500. It just doesn't pay. Also for every watt of power we put onto the grid our utility will only give us 3/4 or a watt back when we need power from the grid. Solar here in Las Vegas, where you think it would be the best deal in the world ... well it stinks!
Do you know how much was labor? Labor costs have shot up in many areas. I recently had to pay $1500 for re-caulking my roof. It took the guy two hours. Many of us will need to become "do it yourselfers."
We pay a lot more for solar in the US. Tariffs were intended to protect US manufactures but as normal it just hurt the consumer.
Buy your solar panels, racking and inverter, wholesale, and install it yourself, it’s pretty easy, I do it, saved me 3/4 the cost of the system.
@@mongo64071 I'm in New England also, quoted it for business, $120k. Payback would have been never. It'll make sense in the future, but not now.
@@mongo64071 Sunrun is the company that Ford allied with for the F150 V2H functionality.
Watch Transport Evolved's video on their experience. Although THEY don't trash Sunrun, if you're educated and read between the lines you would NEVER use them for anything. Incredibly stupid over-engineered and poorly thought out design. I would never trust them.
Also, can you ground-mount? Ground-mount with the ability to change angle makes WAY more sense than roof-mount, but I suspect many municipalities will be preventing this to placate the local "Karen" contingent. You can D-I-Y a ground mount pretty easily if you have a place for it; bonus is it may mean you have less grass to cut. And you can probably interleave a partial sun veggie garden around it.
I am predicting that 'The Grid' will become an outdated notion by 2050. Perhaps mini-grids to connect a neighborhood; and industries which consume a lot of power and energy may have to install their own solar PV and batteries. Already the Portland Aluminium smelter and the Whyalla blast furnace and steel works are investigating HOW to go to PV, or PV + electrolysed Hydrogen, not whether to do so.
On the contrary. In the Nordics we already have a AI controlled electricity grid between all of us Nordics and the Baltics. It balances itself all the time between wind, nuclear, solar, hydro. The future initiate is that the feedback from all house holds is also possible - Europe is ramping up to this.
Being 'off-the-grid' would mean that you would not put energy to the network and you would not pay for the betterment of the grid. Individual off-grid housing is not possible in Europe if you have a permanent home. Being off-grid in contrast to being in an AI controlled network is bad for the planet and in the end - expensive for the consumer.
At the moment we in Finland have a two way balanced AI controlled electricity network with nuclear, wind and hydro as our main sources - and the cleanest energy in the world. And the cheapest.
Already doing that in California. Electric companies are working with community developers in development of microgrids tied together through a VPP... to the electric companies profit!!! Meaning the community is built with enough battery power to circulate it within an exclusive neighborhood, with very minimal grid tie-in (more as a backup when battery depletes).
@@toms5996 I don't really know enough detail to comment on the ACCURACY of your info, but the lure of being off-grid is more about self-sufficiency. If a terrorist (or an American drone if Trump gets elected) takes out your grid, do you still have local power?
I can see people in North America not wanting to be attached in any way to morally-bankrupt utilities run by morally-bankrupt criminals (with AI to help them scam you). It is a measure of trust, and North American society is no longer founded on trust.
The bigger problem is if you don't own, or if you don't have enough usable space to generate enough solar.
What do you think?
@@capnkirk5528 I think even from a point of thinking of 'self-sufficiency' - the Finnish/Nordic electricity network has had one power outage in the past 50 years. The network itself is underground unlike in the US. So to bring our electricity network down would mean complete nuclear annihilation - and even then Greater-Helsinki has a complete city under 100meters of ganite. I don't see any scenario were I would ever be without cheep electricity.
Finland has nuclear power plants that can take a missile strike or a commercial plane without problem. Also underground reactors in the 'underground city' under greater Helsinki. I'm not sure if it can take all of 1.4 million people but most. But that is mostly speculative fiction.
@@toms5996 Just makes me even more sad at the decline of Canada, from once being one of the 10 Best countries to live in.
Our grid is (was, anyway) very well run, BUT ...
It is tied to our gargantuan neighbor to the south and THEIR grid is NOT. Twice in my lifetime THEY have brought OUR grid down for long periods of time. We've also had two BAD ice storms that have caused extreme outages (and we didn't take down the US grid).
I designed my house to stay cool and I have been effectively off-grid for 5 years. I pay $1 a month to maintain a grid connection in the hopes that policies change about feeding back here and I can be paid to support the grid at times of peak demand.
The limiting factor is not cost, it's the size and orientation of the roof, and the solar insolation levels in that location.
In European winters an air source heat pump will need in the region of 6000KWH of energy for a typical house, right at the time of year when solar production is very low. Even if you heat a house using gas or wood, all of the house demands for electricity won't usually be met by solar in winter. We need plenty of wind and storage too.
No doubt, with solar panels cost continues to cost less and less along with their Efficiency becoming greater with the discovery of better materials while making them.
You correct. 👌
While individual house holds can indeed become 'off-the-grid', the long term effects will be dire to society. See my comment above and why in Europe it is not possible. (Summer houses in some cases can be 'off-the-grid.)
@@toms5996but if the effects are negative for the individual, why would they do it?
@@williammeek4078 In the short very particular house holds with high income do indeed get a positive revenues in the span of 30+ years. Living 'off the grid' is not saving the environment, saving money or anything alike for anyone. It's a bit like building apartments from containers was 10 years ago, i.e. a nice fantasy.
@@toms5996 that is just BS. For one, solar can start small and be built on. Second, payoff is on the order of 5 to 7 years not 30 unless you pay someone to do it. Then, like everything, it is more expensive to pay people to do work for you.
I have to watch your videos at 2x just to keep up with how fast you're putting them out
We have been off the grid since 1999, and when we built our 4,000 square foot solar home in the sunny mountains of New Mexico. We’ve been charging our electric car since 2017 and run a wood shop with some 220 V equipment. Looking forward to get our cyber truck to add its giant battery to the 30 kWh lithium iron phosphate battery.
A Solar Panel cost 13 dollarcent a Wp. 30 year production. In Australia Sunbelt a kWh cost 0.2 dollarcent. No need to go off grid. You produce and use Solar of the Grid. Windparks for Backup. In China the Solar Panels are produced with Solar Energy. ❤ Thank You China.
Thank you for this fantastic news! Astonished and grateful. Wish I could live to see the day!
Another great video, Sam. Somebody below said this is not possible and that it's all about physics. No, my Northern European friend, it's all about geography. The Sunburnt Country will become a 21st Century solar energy superpower (sorry to my home town Newcastle, the largest coal export port in the world will have to find something else to do, eventually). Maybe those in solar deprived countries should join the half million people who emigrated here last year. Just bring more home builders with you.
Thanks so much Sam
The Power Company's are already kicking and screaming and trying to stop this.
They also complain the grid won't support the electric car Tsunami, but you don't need
a grid if you produce locally . Think going from mainframe computers to PC's
It's making more and more sense. Electricity is only going up, and solar is only going down. Unfortunately in the north the winter output is low so i'd need a HUGE system to be off grid.
You need natural gas for a few decades.
Another excellent and informative video. Thanks for the good work Sam. Distributed generation provided by rooftop solar seems rarely talked about so it's nice to see here. I say "distributed" because rather than going off-grid homes can form VPPs (virtual power plants) that contribute to the grid, earn money for the participants, and provide very high availability. The distributed part means that huge amounts of electricity no longer have to be shipped around the country, so that the grid's peak capacity does not have to increase by enormous amounts like many commentators would have us believe. This seems to be one of the big arguments against renewables, EVs etc, that the grid will need trillions spent on it to handle the load. With home rooftop solar plus battery, the grid will be there to only balance the load, not to provide the bulk of the power.
OTOH, the future will do its own thing and do something entirely different from what we all expect.
I left the grid 7 years ago. In California. System paid off in 5 years. Adding a chevy volt made my system pay itself in 5 years instead of 7.5 years.
If grid connection is already available, it is generally advisable to stay connected. Send your excess solar energy to the grid, and use grid energy at night is generally cheaper than having your own batteries. But this depends on your local hydro supplier. Some make it easy even paying more for daytime electricity and selling cheaper nighttime electricity. However some charge more if you have solar power and some will actually disconnect you from the grid if they discover you have solar panels. These companies force people to either have large battery storage to cover their worst needs (could be many days in the winter time), or have no solar at all.
At $3,600 in Australia, rooftop PV is cheaper than windows $/m2.
80% of the world's population is in warm latitudes.
I think selfparking EVs will plug into the national grid and day trade electric energy and stability.
Your building's or home rooftop feed in electricity can be matched by your EVs trickle recharge from the grid.
The grid will connect every building and every EV.
@@stevenjones916
The government has calculated the savings of not rebuilding generation plant, and desided it is more economical if people build their own generation with a little help.
So tax money is being spent and saved.
RECs, and SRECs (also referred to as STCs) relate to small-scale renewable energy certificates which are typically created from domestic PV (solar electric), solar hot water and heat pump installations and commercial solar electric systems up to 100kw in size.
HEEHAW HEEHAW. Put your bong down.
@@stevenjones916 Yep, just like tax payer subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. So WTF is your point exactly?
@@robertfonovic3551
Horse meat was cheap when the Ford model T production line started.
If someone pays me enough ok, but i will set up a special circuit just for that. Otherwise, my electricity is my own.
Does not work for Denmark with only solar, wintermonth is
Your bog standard 6.6kw solar system in Australia costs about USD $2.5k…installed. That’s what I have and the ROI payback was 3 years. Now I have free power every day. Even in winter and when it’s raining, I’m producing more power than I can use, even when I’m charging the EV. When the state govt finally allows us to do V2H, I’m effectively off grid. I’m sure that Tesla will soon become a virtual power utility world wide, just like it’s become a global internet provider through Starlink. Just imagine every Tesla receiving $$$ by trading power when it’s not being driven. That’s the future.
Yes, yes, I have been hearing about the very imminent paradigm shift in solar panel tech for about 30 years now.
@aaroncostello8812 Stop waiting for over-enthusiastic "paradigm shifts". Solar panels have dropped enormously in cost and efficiency over that past few years alone, or is this marginally-less-than-spectacular improvement not enough for you?
@@LinzDubNZ "Spectacular" is what it is going to take for them to replace fossil fuels. A 4% increase in efficiency or a 5% reduction in cost every decade or so isn't going to be good enough. Plus, they are still fragile and difficult to dispose of.
So YES...a paradigm shift is required. Otherwise, mass-adoption will never be feasable.
Well, it already happened for the sunny parts of the US. My system cost me $30k to build but saves me $500/month. Payback about 5 years and everything but the inverter is expected to last 25+ years. The inverter should last at least 10 years.
@@aaroncostello8812
Yup.
Many don’t see the whole picture.
So in the meantime I will avoid getting too involved financially in this and enjoy life.
Even though we have no commercial aircraft that runs only on electricity I’m still flying to Hawaii for Thanksgiving.
Life goes on.
@@blackworldtraveler3711it is already happening in sunny locations.
Cheers mate
I put an 11.5kw system in (all of my roof). I have an EV. I still have a huge electricity bill, and in the winter the solar creates almost nothing. I don’t regret it but going truly off grid for me would be inconceivable.
Where do you live? Is it a northern, coastal location? I have a similarly sized solar system and 2 EVs and my electric bill is $0 most of the year, and minimal in the winter. Yes, there is no production on snowy days, but those are rare. I live in Denver.
That is because you choose to live with the 20% of the world population that doesn’t have adequate winter solar resources and will need a grid to live. Everyone else though…
I’m in Oklahoma. I think our electrical power is from natural gas and wind close to 50/50 last I checked. About 230 days a year of sunshine.
Don’t need to worry about going off grid here.
I live in a heavily insulated condo so with just two months of really cold weather in Jan/Feb it’s about $80 for gas and $40 for electricity. Maximum heat in July/August it’s about $90/elect. and $25 for natgas. While the other 8 months average close to $45/mo. for electric and gas.
Low cost of living here. In upper middle class zip code with total household living expenses of $1400/mo.. I retired in my 40s in 2020 and drive car 200-300 miles a year.
Heck I’ve also owned stock in OGE and OKE since under $5 a share and pay enough dividends in one quarter to pay my monthly energy bills for four years.
@@blackworldtraveler3711 efficiency is the low hanging fruit. That said, i found Oklahoma’s grids unreliable. Particularly during the winter ice storms and summer tornados. Off-grid is definitely doable and advantageous in Oklahoma for reliability reasons alone.
@@williammeek4078
You must have a sci-fi force field to protect your panels from high winds, tornados,hail, and snow/ice cover. My friends who are off and partially off grid do not.
One ice storm and one hail storm in my area in over 25 years and zero tornados.
No issues.
In USA, some municipalities now require connection to the grid - and they have raised connection fees so you pay even if you don't use any electrons.
Sounds like a good reason to leave. Florida allows you to go off-grid.
Living in the US, I do have an Electric vehicle, but I would never get solar for my home and especially living in a Northern State. Installations are too damn expensive and what if I wanted to re shingle the roof, how much would that cost?? How do solar panels stand up possible violent storms and heavy ice and snow in the winters.
No thanks to getting Solar for my home.
I would like to have the best of both. An off grid supply and still able to use the grid if need be. But I am a low power user, do not drive, very little heating used compared to average. Ideally solar to use for cooling in the warming summers. I hate the heat far more than the cold (in UK terms).
Awesome 😊
Thank you! Cheers!
Having North facing facets on home or all new homes would make sense.
Here in Canada we won't be going off grid with solar any time soon. December output on my system is less than 10% of max output, during the heating season where most of our demand would be if we were all on heat pumps. Luckily we have lots of wind in the winter and this would be a much bigger contributor at this time.
The idea of the "grid" is a good one so long as powers that run it are not corrupt, government or the private sector. Solar takes the pressure off hydro during the summer when water flows are low. During the winter water flows are also low as it stays on the mountains in the form of snow. So wind will help out in the winter. Our hydro system is one big battery that we could use to plug gaps and perhaps other uses managing fisheries and agriculture. Could also use it to play the system selling power to other areas at high prices. If we worked together, we could make some money.
A market that pays for electric generation and storage sounds like the best plan
Until battery technology is far better ,living off grid seems very expensive and unobtainable for average citizens ,the problem in the USA with battery powered cars is no charging stations or there is not near enought and charging times that take so long, it may take you several hours just to get your vehicle charged, nobody has hours to wait and charge a vehicle after work to just go to work the next time
In Cyprus, any new house built needs to have solar panels to get the finalised permit.
Definitely and with v2h it will be perfect combination
I agree. More people need to figure out that an EV + V2H is the ideal way to bring home tens of kWh when solar production at home can not keep up. Run on V2H overnight; one's solar then only has to keep the house afloat during daylight hours.
Beautiful
Very reliable analysis , future is green and renewable
Will not work in the winter in Sweden unfortunately.
I’ve been on solar since 2011, and it’s time to upgrade to better panels and backup batteries. My utility is about to substantially raise rates, and I want to offset that as much of that as possible. I will be able to generate 90% of my needs, including what I need for my EV. With a bit of effort, I think going off grid would be possible, but I have to pencil it all out. So much of my electric bill is just fees unrelated to the energy I consume, so…. Maybe it would be the best option.
What questions do you have and what is your skill level?
The main cost of owning a car is depreciation.
There are more and more people who are long-term renters.
Unfortunately, owning your own grid is for the rich and poor is getting left behind..
My grandmother said not keeping up with the times is a sign of ignorance. I say ignorance is bliss. In 2018 renewables was the cheapest energy production. In about the middle of this year renewable plus the battery was the cheapest. Price drives everything. The US grid is 23% renewables. Why do you think that is.Seen a tiktok where a guy had a generator charged a Tesla and got 100 miles.
I hope so. Wish solar panels would drop in cost now.
Only limitation to go off-grid is having enough capacity for long-term energy storage.
Potentially with LOHC for storage, we can keep the sunshine energy all year round.
When the Grid was destroyed by a Hurricane in Puerto Rico the had to adjust quickly. A large amount Solar / Battery was installed. Now Tesla starting a virtual Power Plant in Puerto Rico.
Anyone not from the Christian Race is from the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil.
We just got two EVs and are in the middle of getting geothermal. Then...we just found out that our energy supplier wants to increase our electricity rates by 22% over the next three years. Funny, I thought that might happen, so I had already looked into solar, but Tesla's current models said it could only replace 43% of our solar. This number assumed our energy bill wouldn't go up, so it's probably going to be more like 55% replacement. I'd LOVE to add a few ground mount solar panels to the roof top proposal, but my town doesn't allow ground mount of solar panels. I think my next step is to see if I can convince my town to allow ground mount arrays. I'd hide them well so no one would see them (unless you're on the property) and my goal would be to add at least 5 batteries and pretty much never have to use the grid.
Where the hell do you live that doesn’t allow ground mount solar? I would never stand for such a restriction. Sounds like a good time to give the town an ultimatum. “Let me have ground mount solar or i leave town.”.
Hi Sam I went off grid 20 years ago with small system but still nèd genie back up .Hardly use it for half a year
If you hadn;t gone off grid you would be able to draw from the grid when you were short and export to the grid and earn money when you had surplus. If you had a battery you could store your surplus until the grid price was high to earn even higher income.
If the majority of homes had solar panels and batteries (including EV batteries) the evening power duck curve would be greatly diminished.
Not new to sum of us lived of grid in the1980 with led acid batteries and a Kerosene fridge and panels .stepped into my friend place last month with air heat car refrigeration batteries for the cabin a e tractor
They'll tax the hell out of it when it starts hurting tax intake. Look at Spain's "sun tax". They only aren't enforcing it because we're still in the early adopter phase.
Spain's "sun tax" was repealed in 2018.
@@dansanger5340 Wait until this truly takes off...
@@dansanger5340
It was too soon probably.
Not enough trapped yet.
My mates off grid .. during winter he needs a Diesel generator for a few months in Victoria’s winter
all of their needs?
Including heating and cooking in winter?
I'm hearing rumors Teslas will do 2 way power transfer at home.
This would make it possible to cook breakfast with Tesla power. Then let it recharge from Tesla solar panels.
Go to work and get free charging to get you home, cook dinner and run AC.
See what you can dig up.
I am looking to form a LDES REIT with potential investors. As a start-up, there is risk if not enough funding is available to purchase equipment to then lease out for 10 years to electric companies. If you don't understand what I mean, then you are not a good fit for an investor. If you do understand, then we need to open some form of communication to establish a history!
IMHO this furthers the cause for state-owned grids everywhere that either don't charge for connection (charging only for the electricity used) or else allow customers to pay for the connection with their extra energy and have a $0 (or even negative) bill. Why? Because an electrical grid capable of supplying reliable energy is a huge strategic asset for just about every nation, and if everyone who can afford solar panels and batteries start disconnecting from the grid then private grids won't remain economically feasible.
Incidentally, having power generation and storage exceptionally distributed - as would be the case if every house had their own solar panels and batteries - further increases the grid's resilience, making them even more valuable strategic national assets.
Hell ya!
I've been offgrid for 7 years as i didnt want to pay $30,000 to get connected.
I am offgrid because the local electric co-op doesn't allow solar on their grid. I have 10 kw of solar with 60 kw-hr of battery storage feeding a 12 kw inverter. I will have to upgrade to charge my cybertruck. It would be much better if the co-op would be reasonable.
Due to the vast subsidies on electricity production in the US, This is currently possible only for people who can afford solar systems with storage and for people where current electricity rates are high - e.g. Hawaii, California.
What about the vast subsidies on oil?
@@brahmmauer7437 oil products make the economy go round.
What about the vast subsidies on EV production and EV purchases (on vehicles up to $80k)?
It will only be worth staying on the grid if the greedy electricity companies such as AGL stop charging such excessive daily connection rates. My last bill was just over $50 because of a good run of PV output. I would have actually made $50 if they did not charge nearly $1.20 per day to be connected to the grid.I do have a pool and have not converted the hot water to solar, otherwise I personally would rather get batteries and be off grid. The other factor that makes me think towards off grid is that feed in tariffs are starting to get too low, currently I get $0.48 feed in, but if I left AGL and went to another provider, I would only get $0.10 at best as I would loose the government rebate. On a 5kWh system, I would on average (rounded down) produce only 7kWh excess per day, which is only $0.70 income per day and a cost of $1.20 a day, so not worth being connected as I would be loosing money. I wash my panels every six months myself (water only, no chemicals) and would use a professional if I ever have stuff I could not remove. I bought the pole and soft head (mop like) on line. I have a single story house. No EV yet.
Does this lowest cost include the need for storage, which is expensive? Sure if intermittent solar is feed into a grid with other dispatchable sources, such as gas fired power stations, then yes it's cheapest, but it's only to a point.
V2G is going to change everything. Sure, a fair few houses will go completely off-grid, but I think overall it will drive down power prices which will incentivise people to stay connected.
Not where 80% of people live. We are not far from solar falling below grid maintenance costs. V2G actually makes it easier to go off-grid.
Haven’t solar just been improved again 😊
It’s hard to charge a car from solar because you’re not at home during the day. You’re at work.
You would need a battery bigger than your cars battery capacity to be able to charge on solar alone.
Our model 3 uses between 10-20kw per day with a short commute to work.
That’s a pretty massive home battery and solar setup requirement.
Why can't we charge our EV's, anywhere on the grid, using our grid connected solar panels?
It wouldn't take much, at work eg 8hrs x 2.5kw/hr =20kwh. No need for special cabling.
@@3rdrockthis guy is lying. The model 3 gets about 3.5 miles per kWh so even the average US commute of 36 miles would use 10 kWh.
He even mixes up his units of kW and kWh for his battery.
You know, you destroy your credibility when you mix up units for your energy usage and even if you had gotten your units correct, the numbers don’t work.
@@williammeek4078 I'm not lying. My Tesla wall charger which I have installed to 3 phase gives me a record of the charging history. I'll type the past week of charging below:
1 Nov - 7.9kWh
2nd - 25.7kWh
3rd - 11.4kWh
5th - 18.4kWh and
5th - 23.2 kWh
6th - 23.4kWh
7th - 12.0 kWh and
7th - 12.4kWh
9th - 1.1kWh
10th - 14kWh.
My wife has a commute of about 9km to work.
I drove it on the 6th and 7th to work which was 62km each way.
Believe what you want but this is the reality of real world usage.
@@youtubevanced4900 calling BS. That does not represent a 9 km commute.
My question is: do you have to wash the solar panels? Do they get dirty and become inefficient?
Sam, I understand what you’re saying, but with electricity on track to drop to $0.01-$0.03/kWh, why would anyone want to disconnect from the grid? I’ve thought about going geothermal heat pump, adding solar and battery, but if you cost it out, including the eminent price drop, it’s just not cost effective. Instead I’ll add a air heat pump system, and small solar and stay on the grid.
How do you figure the cost of grid electricity dropping to $.01-.03/kW? It is going up worldwide and in the US is at least $.13-.15/kW before various fees and taxes.
I think something is going on with your mic. There is a low rough noise that almost sounds like your are recording outside.
Self install kits would be great...as cost to install is insanity in the States
There are lots of DYI kits available in the US.
This is true on a macro level. But experience has shown Profit motive will get in the way. The gris operators will keep the efficiency as profit driving people to take the cheaper option, offgrid. This will start a vicious cycle as the grid get more expensive as the costs are divided by fewer customers. This will only accelerate the transition. Not only are Electic utilities not supporting onsite generation, they are actively punishing it.
If you go off the grid, you can be sure you will be taxed to support the grid.. It's the American way.
I only waiting for countris to impose special tax for e-cars and houses with solar panels, especially off-grid.
I highly doubt house holds will go off grid en masse.
I have a tesla battery and big solar system which covers 80% of my energy usage. I did some DIY modelling on my usage. With a 2nd battery I'd be able to over 95% of my usage, with a 3rd battery around 99%, but I'd need a 4th to make it through a year without needing the grid. That 4th battery would have been needed 1 single week in winter.
Instead I could save the money on some of the batteries, connect to the grid and sell enough energy back that my grid connection is effectively free, and have less worry reliable power. Also, if there's some fault with my system it's my responsibility to get a contractor out and fix it. Power companies aren't perfect but they sure fix issues faster than me trying to get an electrician. Unless there's some other factor like being remote, I think most homes that are mostly energy self sufficient will still want a grid connection.
Solar panels are cheap because Silicon is cheap. Glass and aluminum are also cheap but used in large quantities in solar panels so they are the major portion of the cost of a PV panel. Further reductions in the cost of glass and aluminum are not likely though more Watts per square meter of glass will further reduce the per Watt price. Storing electricity is getting cheap. When it is truly cheap OR when more people store their electricity in their EVs, then we will live in a different world. Those who run short on electricity can power their homes with their EVs and when that runs short, charge it at a public charging station and "carry" home tens of kWh of electricity. Off-gridders will no longer need a backup generator during extended overcast. They will be able to charge their EVs for free at home with more hours of daylight during the summer. For this to work in the far north(/south), burning hydrocarbons will almost certainly still be needed for home heating.
The American electric utility companies have already taken several steps ahead of the off-the-grid consumers. Whether you are on or off the grid, the electric utility company can still legally bill you for a basic service charge. Off-the-grid folks are still enslaved to the electric utility company. In anticipation of consumer using less grid electricity, the electric utility companies have change their price structure such that delivery service charge now cost more than the cost of actual electricity consumed.
new system on the way. 6800 W DC. Should take care of all my electricity needs. 5 yr payback and 90,000 savings over 25 years. New panels are 90% after 25 years. No brainer. ev next.
Share hydro with neighbors
Hello mate
the price of all forms of energy will fall, including petroleum and natural gas.
Battery technology is still not good enough or cheap enough to go off grid. In addition, many commercial building codes don’t allow lithium battery storage inside because if the fire hazard. And if the wind doesn’t blow or the wind doesn’t shine for a long period of time, you still need the grid.
In the us UL listed batteries are approved for inside battery storage. The nec made listing batteries a requirement in the 2017 codes. The tech is there right now, it wasn’t two years ago, but currently you can buy a UL listed 15kw battery for $4,000. This would have cost you $20,000 five years ago. The same progress is happening with inverters and charge controller, furthermore I just got a Black Friday sale email with panels at $.25 per watt! Five years ago $1 was a bargain.
Well, people like me are already doing it and saving money.
Well, people like me are already doing it and saving money.
@@williammeek4078
Everyone likes to talk about how they save money but never the total costs paid(or debt) to get there.
@@blackworldtraveler3711 my system cost me a total of $30k and saves me $500/month on electricity and gasoline. That os a 5 year payback by the way.
TH-cam user predicts the government in CA will tax your home solar production
If all the roofs are installed with Solar Panels, we won’t be wasting new money on electric power plants and transmission lines. Elon Musk has been informing us that the sun is our free source of energy.
Dude. It doenst work like that. We all need to work together.
Sam, solar panels are ready for prime time. But home and small business owners desperately need cheaper, higher energy storage batteries! Powerwalls are far too expensive and pathetically weak. I figure I need 30 kWh of battery storage to go off grid.I want to go off grid to protect the climate and to stop paying highway robbery prices to our crooked electric monopoly
It can't happen soon enough. Could have happened long ago, without the interference of fossil fuel corporations.
It will happen exponentially. This prediction is linear. Batteries and solar follow declining cost curves. Just look at the decline in batteries this year. This will be over by 2030.
'Leaving the grid' is a very niche and actually quite dangerous way of thinking. In Finland you will pay the basic fee for the electricity network whether you use electricity or not. The point is that at least here, companies are mandated to improve the network all the time.
If us in Europe would have an option to just drop out of the electricity network it would mean that the current electric network would deteriorate. That is not an option in Europe.
People in the US and Canada who have this option(?) will actually contribute to your electricity network to never properly develop so that a proper 'AI controlled' network that is bi-directional will be available to all customers.
This whole idea of 'living of the grid' is such American short term thinking that in the end will be immensely costly to your whole countries.
Totally agree. Europe couldn't survive without national grids and with international interconnectors.
I wonder if there will be a tax for Not having a landline telephone? Might it be short term thinking to have people use cellphones for voice and internet? I think having a landline is obsolete but maybe those wiser than me think I should be paying to support the telephone grid.
@@eclecticcyclist We did survive and would survive. Finland is now a net exporter of electricity. Finland was electricity independent till, I think 1992 but even after we have always hade enoug capacity to be independent if need be.
It doesn't make any sense to have a singular source of any energy for any power for every European country. That is why Finland joined EU wide grid infrastructure.
Not sure if you're interested but us in Finland have our own laws so that Finland the country as well as all cities and towns are also totally independent with all energy. That means that Finland the country can go on just fine whatever happens in the rest of Europe or the world - our electricity and gasoline generation/gas generation will last for 10+ years for the country. If it comes to war - every single city has their own power plants for electricity and gas.
It has been this way since World War II. Also every person has an underground shelter in the whole country. The best is in Metro-Helsinki where we have an 'underground city' - which is now mostly malls and two major streets and most parking, gyms, a stadium etc. etc. underground.
I just thought to mention this since many people, especially in the US, like to know this 'funny' aspect of us in Finland.
@@peteinwisconsin2496 Finland is 100% covered with 2G networks meaning voice and text message. This service is there till the end of the world and for free, though there is a basic monthly ree I guess..€1(?). 4G/5G are 90% but those are commercial as 2G is considered a basic right. High speed internet is also a basic right. There are no extra fees for any telecommunications.
There is no tax or any for electricity either - only a fee if you build something or own a building in an area that HAS an electricity network. The electricity network fee is so that in the long run (decades) we have the best electricity service in the world - which we already have but hope to have in the future as well. I think it's around €9 per month.
As high speed internet is a basic right, you can have it where-ever you live for free. All city and town apartment have that already as it has been built for the last 30 years. If you live deep in a forest, you're usually covered by 5G as most of Finland is covered by 5G. If you decide to live in a few spots in Finland where none of these is available you will get various technologies to connect you to the internet. Internet is a basic human right in Finland. A limitless 1000G/s internet to your home is around €9, to your phone €19 but if you live in an area that is outside somehow, it come be up to €50/ month. All these connections are without any data limit (data limit connections were phased out in Finland in around 1999) and without speed limit meaning you should get at least a certain speed. Usually the absolutely minimum speed is 200MB/s. If you want 5G IoT speed and availability which is used in robotics meaning real time access such as holograms, that will cost you some €50-100/month.
If you want a landline, the particular operator will pay you quite a lot of money and you will get a 5G modem or similar with 200MB/s for free. In Finland you are paid to remove landlines outside electricity.
@@toms5996 The UK wouldn't manage these days because we've been dependant on interconnectors so long. We have eleven international interconnectors and two idomestic interconnectors.
People also just need to get smarter about battery sizes. You dont need nearly as much as the experts calculate. People who tell you that you need 4x your daily usage are just wasting your money. If an asteroid comes and darkens the earth for 3 days you are going to have bigger problems than a low battery. And if you do undersize your battery, it is cheaper to add more solar panels.
Your mic picks up every time you touch the table.
I’m not spending the $30K for solar panels and an additional $10K for storage battery pack. What needs to happen is the electric companies needs to invest in the technology either as solar farms or incentivize home installations. Plus the technology is horribly inefficient for cost per kilowatt of power. Get the cost down and then we’ll talk.
You running a hotel or school or something?
@@LinzDubNZ Your IQ is 10.
For most of the world a gas/diesel powered car is a National Security risk. The oil, diesel, or gasoline needs to be imported from countries and regions that have been very unstable. EV's powered from solar and wind energy will lessen the dependence on these countries and regions. EV's should be encouraged as a National Security benefit.
So is lithium and other materials needed for batteries.
In the US, oil drilling site leases as well as the taxes on domestic and imported oil is a profit center for government. Our gov't also taxes the profits that oil companies make.
@blackworldtraveler3711
Lithium is an element, something that can be recycled and reused. Mine once and reuse over and over again. An element that is available in the US and most regions of the world.
Coal, oil, natural gas, are compounds. Made by nature over a millennium. Use once and convert to other compounds. Extracted in places that are unstable and not friendly to the US.
@@peteinwisconsin2496
Today is Veterans Day, how much of the money collected from the Oil and Natural Gas industry was used to protect there business operations all over the world.
Every business pays taxes from money that it collects from its customers. Those monies will be collected from what ever replaces Coal, Oil, Natural Gas. Coal, Oil, Natural Gas are finite resources that will be replaced.
@@tuy60
I know all of that. I was an Aerospace metallurgical engineer since the 90s at Lockheed and NASA working with lithium among other things.
Lithium recycling is in infant stage.
Only one or two working lithium mines in the U.S. currently I think.
Lithium is considered essential and national security concern from what I have been reading.
I don't think so. Solar sales are crashing globally.
Dude, turn the graph up the right way.
@@LinzDubNZ Check all the solar stocks, enphase for example. they gave really weak guidance for the next year.
I am still waiting for hydro car and a machine that can produce hydrogeb fuel at home
Im off grid...
So what about Governments charging massive registration fees for EV cars to make up for taxes lost on fuel tax. I have read many articles about this tax coming.
My state did this years ago with hybrids and added EVs a short time later.
@@aaroncostello8812 Yes can see this coming which takes alot of the cost saving of the EV's bastards
Here in Queensland, Australia it is $300 LESS per year to register an EV than a 4 cylinder fuel car. You're living in the wrong country.
@@pgale Why shouldn't EV owners have to pay to maintain the roads like ICE owners do? EVs are actually heavier and cause more wear to the roads and highways.
@@pgale Why shouldn't EV owners have to pay to maintain the roads like ICE owners do? EVs are actually heavier and cause more wear to the roads and highways.
The only problem with that thought is solar can't provide enough power to provide electric heat or cooling . Electric cooking and hot water could be a struggle. That is the holy grail that hasn't been solved . Not sure charging one EV is possible with a off grid setup.
Yes it can. I have 6.6kw solar system and it copes with everything just fine, including heating, cooling and charging EV. I’m not yet allowed by the state govt to use my EV for V2H, but when that happens I’m effectively off grid. I’m sure that Tesla will soon become a virtual power utility world wide, just like it’s become a global internet provider through Starlink. Just imagine every Tesla receiving $$$ by trading power when it’s not being driven. That’s the future.
I am off grid in the UK. I have a 7kw array. I have an induction hob for cooking. Never use the oven. I have a storage heater which takes excess power on sunny days. I charge my ev when the sun shines. I have a gas hob for backup but its used only a handful if times a year. If it's too cold I have a wood burner. Yes its possible!
@@petewright4640 Yes it's possible if your willing to conserve and use less . You could run a small cabin off a couple of batteries and a few solar panels . A small rv fridge ,led lights and small TV but that's not the reality for most . In the US they have central air systems for heat and cooling that does an entire house and uses huge amounts of power and a stand alone solar system isn't going to keep up especially in cold environments for electric heating and hot environments for air conditioning. Living in the South those systems run 24/7 in the summer . Connected to the grid is the only option if you don't want to do with less and conserve . Americans are big users of energy and conserving is not a top priority . I could make it work because of my frugality but that frugality keeps my electric bill so low it's not cost effective to get a solar/ battery system . I estimate a $25,000 stand alone system for me would take 40 years to break even .
Solar is viable even far north from the equator as we have experience with our solar array in Canada! With solar panels, only on 1/2 of our roof we have generated enough power our home power, our Tesla EV and get credits from B C Hydro which are banked and used for credit in the winter months when solar output is low! We now currently pay $9.53 a month to be connected to Hydro as a storage facility for our EV generation credit requiring no power wall to benefit from excess generation! This is a win-win for BC Hydro, the customer and the environment! Why go off the grid when you can use the hydro suppler for power credits when power generation high & credit when your power generation is low! 🇨🇦😎👍
Solar is viable if you have enough space. In the UK most houses are 2-3 storey on a small footprint meaning that roof areas are often small.
I find it funny when people talk about lack of space for solar panels (in the world not just at home). Let's see, how much empty clear view to the sky space is there at every airport in the world. Seems like the perfect place for mini solar farms.
@@chetsaxton1526 This is about personal generation potential, not world potential.
Solar power would be a priority if I had disposable income. Come on Powerball!! Lol I don't know where solar panels have come down by 40%, but it's not in the US. A common grid would make a terrorist attack on power grids less important. I like the idea of all people helping each other out. It would even be possible to help support homeless and low income residences by covering their energy costs. Then they need to figure out free worldwide WiFi/internet.
The only problem Tony Seba has is that he tells people 10 years before they want to hear the truth
EXTREMELY annoying sound issues for at least the 4th video that I've seen in recent days. STOP touching or bumping the microphone!!
The biggest challenge to going completely off grid using only solar+batteries is winter. Electricity grids can deal with winter by supplementing solar power with wind power (and, in the short/medium term, fossil fuels). Rooftop solar+batteries cannot do either. Even if self-sufficiency during summer is relatively cheap, grids will remain because self-sufficiency in winter is much more expensive - especially if you're heating the home with electricity, rather than cheating by bringing in wood or fossil fuels to burn for heating.
That literally isn’t a problem for 80% of the world’s population. It is just the consequence of where you choose to live.
Why is using wood "cheating". It's carbon neutral. A great way to store energy from summer to winter.
I hope to get solar installed on the house roof by 2026.
Yeah I'm wondering if there's somebody who's proficiently electronically knowledgeable... Who could keep starting from the point of mounting the solar panels to the roof... running the wires to the inverter... wiring up the inverter to the batteries, hooking the main house circuits into the batteries and inverter... mounting wiring the EV charger...like we we're actually trying to get somewhere with this and show people how to do it that it's not actually all that difficult...if there was a plain and simple illustration of it? Rather than just talking about it...
O, but it's toooo dangerous. People might electricute themselves, or someone else, or burn the house down.
Australia could be the first country to go off grid with the amount of sunlight in the deserts and the amount of wind energy along the coast. But Australia will be the last country due to domestic politics and incompetent govt.