Was Bellinger Out of the Base Path?

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 พ.ค. 2024
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ความคิดเห็น • 389

  • @AntonelliBaseball
    @AntonelliBaseball  29 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

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  • @nersh46137
    @nersh46137 หลายเดือนก่อน +35

    Seeing both runners diving for the base perfectly synced looked like something from a video game

  • @SvanMagic
    @SvanMagic หลายเดือนก่อน +69

    I didn't know the full rule until you explained it, but by that rule, he looked absolutely safe. But ump has to call it in a real time and the movement probably threw him off.

    • @slpguy6026
      @slpguy6026 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Yeah tough call in real time.

    • @willpina
      @willpina หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      When the short stop runs towards Bellinger, he created the first tag attempt. When the 3rd baseman tried to tag him, that was the second tag attempt.

    • @londonwerewolves
      @londonwerewolves หลายเดือนก่อน

      "But ump has to call it" is the fallacy of attention seekers ruining the game. The umps can choose to not be a deciding factor & leave it to the players. He took a 50-50 call and decided this was his moment to be the most important person in the park.

    • @holmj12
      @holmj12 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      ​@londonwerewolves I could make that same exact argument if the umpire called the payer safe but I thought the runner should have been out. "The umpire had to call him safe, the umpire wanted to look cool and important".
      My actual opinion: I need a measuring stick. I think it would be cool to have a review where a computer measures if the runner did go more than 3 feet outside of the base path. But I think while he was stumbling he did got 3 feet outside of his established base path (but again I would like measurement confirmation)

    • @LucianDevine
      @LucianDevine หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@willpina But the base path changes with each tag attempt. So he was closer to left field on the second one, meaning that I think he had the room to dodge the tag.

  • @billrose5146
    @billrose5146 หลายเดือนก่อน +29

    Cardinal fan here. He looked safe to me.

  • @swanamaker
    @swanamaker หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    This was obstruction on the third baseman. Bellinger ran to his right because the 3rd baseman was hindering him before he has possession of the ball.

  • @genesispuredeaf2390
    @genesispuredeaf2390 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    I love how Matt breaks these down as both an offensive and defensive strategy consideration. Having played at multiple levels, he has the true pulse of the game in his considerations and I especially love that he offers his opinion (when he does) without sounding like an over bearing expert. The call belongs to the umpire who will likely already have been informed that the tag attempt isn’t when someone thinks about tagging the runner but after they posses the ball and are in the movement of making a tag. Although it might be tempting to call the step around/away from the fielder as breaking the base path, that (base path) was not yet established until fielder possessed the ball.

  • @Briansgate
    @Briansgate หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    Matt, if I'm not mistaken, the 'tag attempt' started when the SS caught the ball and made his first step toward Belli

    • @LucianDevine
      @LucianDevine หลายเดือนก่อน +8

      The base path changes with each tag attempt I think.

    • @genesispuredeaf2390
      @genesispuredeaf2390 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@LucianDevineIt does….these comments about it being established by a pursuing runner are silly. Happily, they are not umpires weighing in but faux fans

    • @thickerconstrictor9037
      @thickerconstrictor9037 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      You are mistaken

    • @miguelangelsucrelares5009
      @miguelangelsucrelares5009 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      @@LucianDevine Only if the runner changes direction. In this case, he didn't. Bellinger was caught trying to return to second base, then he starts running towards third to escape the tag by th SS. The tag attempt occurred right after the SS caught the ball. Now, one could argue that Arenado obstructed Belli's path to third base without the ball and that the obstruction occurred before Belli left his basepath.

  • @JudeOneThree
    @JudeOneThree หลายเดือนก่อน +19

    This looks like an argument could be made for Type A obstruction by Arenado, and Bellinger started to go around him before he had the ball. Then, Bellinger got passed Arenado before he had the ball, so it’s hard to say Bellinger was out of the base bath. In either case, it looks like Bellinger should be SAFE.

    • @swanamaker
      @swanamaker หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Agree 100%.

    • @BroChaos
      @BroChaos 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      that's what I came here to say. still learning rules, but at what point is that baserunner interference? could he just have tripped over arenados leg and been called safe?

    • @swanamaker
      @swanamaker 28 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      @@BroChaos When the defense hinders the offense, it's called obstruction. When the offense hinders the defense, it's called interference. The instant Bellinger had to adjust his path by Arenado being in his way without possession of the ball, it's obstruction.

    • @JudeOneThree
      @JudeOneThree 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

      It seems that CCS also saw the obstruction violation: th-cam.com/video/5GxzzzvhI-w/w-d-xo.htmlsi=qULzk49zH536EIlA

    • @JudeOneThree
      @JudeOneThree 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@BroChaos Interference by the baserunner in this situation must be INTENTIONAL (while obstruction against a fielder can be either intentional or unintentional).

  • @hardyworld
    @hardyworld หลายเดือนก่อน +21

    I'm a Cardinal fan, but I think Bellinger should have run directly to 3rd base and run into Arenado (who doesn't yet have the ball because Winn held onto the ball way too long) which would be obstruction called against the fielder. I really don't know if this was the right call (it's a judgment call by the ump), but I'm inclined to agree with whatever the ump called on close calls like this.

    • @williamavitt8264
      @williamavitt8264 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      There wasn't anything close about this call

    • @Niel2760
      @Niel2760 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      The fielder is trying to catch a ball though. This gives the fielder protection from an obstruction call.

    • @Subangelis
      @Subangelis หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      @@Niel2760 Nope, only on a batted ball.

    • @Niel2760
      @Niel2760 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@Subangelis Obstruction is the act of a fielder who, while not in possession of the ball and not in the act of fielding the ball or a throw, impedes the progress of any runner. Contact does not have to be made for the umpire to rule obstruction. There are two types of obstruction Type 1 and Type 2.

    • @thatzwhat
      @thatzwhat หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@Niel2760 If the throw had been from right field, at what point would Arenado have been trying to catch the ball? Immediately after it left F9's hand? When the ball was halfway to Arenado? Six feet from Arenado?

  • @mathewwillenbrink142
    @mathewwillenbrink142 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    matt, I think what you may be missing is that there is not a new base-path created for each tag attempt. In fact the correct terminology is "when a play is being made on him" (NFHS 8-4-2-a-2, NCAA 8-5-a, OBR 7-08-a-1) Once a play attempt occurs, even from far away, the base-path gets established and does not change on subsequent attempts.
    If you are familiar with the legal, but much hated "skunk in the outfield play", you can see how true this and why it exists this way.
    Subsequently, when the SS gets the ball. A play is attempted and the base-path is established. So the question is did Bellinger stray 3 feet from there, and not from Arrenado attempted the tag.

    • @Weapon12
      @Weapon12 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Good explanation and rules reference. I think they got this one wrong but this is a tough call in real time. There was possible obstruction as well.

  • @brenthooton3412
    @brenthooton3412 หลายเดือนก่อน +21

    The view at 5:00 is helpful because it shows that the runner legitimately beat the throw. It wasn't a case where the fielder had the ball well ahead of the runner and the runner had to go out of his way to dodge the tag.

    • @Subangelis
      @Subangelis หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      And if he had just ran to the base, he would be safe. But whether he got by him or not has no bearing on the rule.

    • @MwD676
      @MwD676 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      @@Subangelis Sure it does. If he is by the attempted tag before it occurs, he can once again establish his own path to the base. The tag attempt, which establishes the path, cannot occur until the fielder making the tag actually has the ball.

    • @williamchiafos3889
      @williamchiafos3889 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      ​@@MwD676well said

    • @williamchiafos3889
      @williamchiafos3889 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      ​@@MwD676I also believe that the actual attempt didn't come before his arm was fully extended making the path even wider

    • @willpina
      @willpina หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      If Bellinger would have made any contact with Arenado, he would have been awarded 3rd base. Instead he instinctively went around him.

  • @jimpagano2343
    @jimpagano2343 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    the early angle is tough to definitively determine anything. As an umpire, I've always considered the "did he move >3ft?" based upon the runner's center of gravity. As he passed Arenado (if you use that as the "tag attempt timestamp" since Arenado now has the ball and is starting to move glove toward runner) his legs look roughly shoulder width apart, so center of gravity is straight up and down. he takes one more step to the right with his right leg, and another step to the right with his left leg while leaning toward 1B line. around the 5:12 mark, you see everything from a different angle, and from this angle it looks like with those two steps his center of gravity veered more than 3'. again, really tough to see and know for sure without a straight-on angle. I'd be fine with a call either way on this one.

    • @stevehamman4465
      @stevehamman4465 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Well Jimbo, you had the privilege of watching this in slow mo ! Did you watch the vid , then stop it and make a call? Or did you watch it 10 times to get your rulings and opinion? You see Jimbo,,,,, everyone is looking at the basepath, baseline,,,, you know what I seen??? OBSTRUCTION!! Damn right Jimbo,, tell me that R5 wasn't in the basepath before he had the ball . Runner moved to his right , to AVOID!,

    • @ronsparks2391
      @ronsparks2391 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I'm ruling him safe..as a former player (catcher n ss) n umpire if I'm the third base ump I'm thinking he's going around cuz he's about to collide cuz third baseman is in his way til the very last moment..which he can but shouldn't do bringing up possible interference. Just thought is was a good, marginal move on Bellingers part..he didn't go away outside imo.

    • @stevehamman4465
      @stevehamman4465 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@ronsparks2391, I see the same thing Ron! I just wanted to point out the obstruction also! He made his move to the right to avoid the fielder and not the tag. So even with the move to the right , he changed his BASEPATH which afforded him another 3ft. So,,, I would have him safe either way. Not out of baseline. If he was tagged ( he wasn't) I'd have him safe from obstruction! The call was out of baseline, and I object!! Haaa

    • @ronsparks2391
      @ronsparks2391 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Steve.. people forget the fielder has to give the runner the base path...'cept on a fielded ball...and in our day the game was simpler...n Yu hoped the umps judgement was good..with no replay video...stuff happens. It was close yes...but ida still gave it to the runner. All this analysis junk these days n sissifying the game sucks.

    • @stevehamman4465
      @stevehamman4465 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@ronsparks2391 , yep Ron, I played , coached, and umped at a higher level than some! Thing is I didnt just read the book, I had teachers that knew the game and loved to teach the game. It was way simpler 30 ish yrs ago , no doubt! I would ump 9 - 14 yr olds just to brush up on the crazy stuff your going to see ! No one complained about my strike zone, but was told that I was consistantly at the bottom of the knee! I would hear players on the benches telling their teammates. And pitchers working down. They have over analysed every rule in the book, and left so many of these over analysed rules to umpires judgment! Then , if the umps, ( in MLB ) dont make a correct hand signal, they can be overruled by instant replay. Mostly the plays at home. You have to watch and see 5 different rules ( or more) going on with a play at the plate in real time. I guess it's this new generation of video gamers that think umps are computers. Have a good day sir.

  • @WonkNRoll
    @WonkNRoll หลายเดือนก่อน +18

    He was within the basepath when the failed tag was attempted but it appears he went outside of the path as he got closer to 3rd as he had to make a hard left turn to reach the base as he got closer to 3rd. Does the basepath "disappear" after the runner gets past an attempted tag? If so, he's safe. But he should be out if the basepath remains defined until he gets to 3rd.

    • @KyleRepinski
      @KyleRepinski หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I agree with this take.

    • @blurry9022
      @blurry9022 หลายเดือนก่อน

      This is what I thought as well.

    • @TeranRealtor
      @TeranRealtor 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      What 'disappears' is "The runner's attempt to avoid the tag."
      He is safe because he did not go 3' out of his basepath 'to avoid the tag'.
      The "base path" is only something that matters while someone is trying to tag you. If you round third on the way home, and go 8' or 10' outside of the line, it does not matter if it is not in an attempt to avoid a tag.

  • @FUGP72
    @FUGP72 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    According to Close Call Sports on a recent video, the "tag attempt" does not mean the very specific one that caused the runner to veer out of the way. So in a run down, once any fielder has the ball and is running toward, that is considered a tag attempt.

    • @thickerconstrictor9037
      @thickerconstrictor9037 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Perhaps, but when the fielder throws it to someone else, a new base path is established every single time. It doesn't get established one time and then maintains that. So when they threw it to the guy closer to 3rd and he went to apply the tag that is now the new base path at the spot of the attempted tag. And then you have a straight line to the base and 3 ft in either direction of that invisible line

  • @christollaksen8442
    @christollaksen8442 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great learning video. 1st, judgement call by the umpire at the time of the play, the runner is out. The tag attempt was so far away from 3rd base, the angle back to 3rd was pretty severe. The interesting lesson is on the 3rd baseman. He started the play at the cutout of the infield, on the throwback to 2nd, he moved closer to 2nd instead of retreating closer to 3rd. The tag attempt was almost halfway between the bases. If the 3rd baseman had given short a bigger space, the tag would have been easier.

  • @lorenblaine5275
    @lorenblaine5275 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    His torso moved close to 3 feet after the catch was made, but his third step after the catch was more like 5' over.

  • @willb6187
    @willb6187 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Corey Blazer is the umpire who made the call. His son plays in our youth organization. Great people. Very nice family.

  • @jamesmathias6973
    @jamesmathias6973 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Regarding the defense of the play, I think the SS should have thrown to the 3rd baseman much sooner because there is the SS and 2nd baseman both covering 2nd, there is no one to cover 3rd except the 3rd baseman (pitcher was coming to cover but was late). If you get it to the 3rd baseman, Bellinger runs back towards 2nd and you get 2 people both covering each base (the pitcher will have time to back up 3rd base) then you can get him out for sure, if the first person misses the tag he can throw to the 2nd person backing up that base (get closer and closer to the runner with the runner about in the middle of both bases.

  • @thundersmite2162
    @thundersmite2162 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Does the tag attempt not start at the beginning of the rundown? I'd have to look up what the tag attempt is in the rulebook though

  • @brendanritchie1862
    @brendanritchie1862 หลายเดือนก่อน +20

    I think the tag starts when the short stop catches the ball and begins pursuing him. The short stop is chasing him and the runner is avoiding the tag by running towards 3rd. So I think the whole sequence should be considered one giant tag attempt. And he takes two full steps outside of the path towards third…

    • @rlriii13
      @rlriii13 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      This is where my opinion falls as well. The runner avoided being tagged at 2nd base by heading towards 3rd. At that moment, the base path was established. If that's true though, the third baseman might be called for standing in the base path without the ball. If the runner collided into the third baseman before catching the ball, it's defensive interference, right?

    • @thickerconstrictor9037
      @thickerconstrictor9037 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      But that's not how it works. It's at the moment that the tag is attempted. Chasing someone down is not classified as attempting the tag it's literally not until he is upon him trying to place a tag.

    • @jcarwash31
      @jcarwash31 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@thickerconstrictor9037 My understanding is that the “tag attempt” (is a poor choice of words) begins when the SS starts chasing the runner. Otherwise, the runner could literally run anywhere until someone is close enough to them to swing their glove at them.

    • @keith6706
      @keith6706 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      The general interpretation has been that if the player with the ball starts the pursuit, the baseline is established. However, once the player gives up the ball, it's reset. So once the shortstop tossed the ball, the first tag attempt ended and a new one, with a new baseline, begins when third caught the ball.

    • @willpina
      @willpina 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@keith6706 not entirely correct. The base path only changes when the direction of the runner changes. So if Bellinger had turned around to go back to second and in his turn he travels more than 3 feet away he isn't out because a new base path to second base has been established.

  • @another_jt
    @another_jt หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    To me, it looks like a decent call. Bellinger has already started to move laterally when the tag is attempted, but the path is a direct line from that spot to the base, and stays the path until the base is reached, the attempt to reach the base is abandoned (like turning back to the previous base), or is out for whatever reason. His momentum in avoiding the tag carried him further towards left field and away from the path, and 3 ft is really not all that much especially considering the size of most professional players, a lunging Arenado (listed at 6 ft 2 in) is likely easily reaching 3 ft. from the point where the tag attempt started.
    All in all, it seems like the out call was justified.

  • @mattputnam3659
    @mattputnam3659 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I think he should have been called safe, but I understand the call. Generally you shouldn't be able to run around the fielder trying to make the tag without going out of the base path, and the ump was probably just going by that. The complicating factor is that Bellinger had already started to move to the side before the tag was attempted, but that's hard to call.

  • @whatthe3504
    @whatthe3504 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

    he was out his initial dodge was within 3ft but his momentum carried him an addition 2 ft away as he swung around to touch the base.

  • @JayRoberts244
    @JayRoberts244 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Definitely the right call

  • @danielcastiglione5328
    @danielcastiglione5328 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think it is the right call. When the tag attempt is made, he takes 2 or 3 step not in a direct line with the bag. However, I see this not called often.

  • @PunisherWolf
    @PunisherWolf หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Had something like that in my 12 and under league for my son this year. The other team got our batter called out on a walk when he hadn’t established his path for the walk because we had runner come home on a wild pitch.

    • @FadkinsDiet
      @FadkinsDiet หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      No, that's wrong. On a walk it is a free pass unless the batter runner abandons.

    • @user-wp5rx8ig5l
      @user-wp5rx8ig5l หลายเดือนก่อน

      The umpire bought the coaches argument.

    • @jimpagano2343
      @jimpagano2343 หลายเดือนก่อน

      the runner can only be called for "out of base path" when there is a play that involves a tag attempt. sounds like the other team bullied the ump into that one.

    • @PunisherWolf
      @PunisherWolf หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jimpagano2343 umps were just tired of all their shit. They had argued nearly every strike and ball call against their team anyway. So I think he was like if I give him 1 maybe he’ll shut up. They didn’t!

  • @jfejapan2829
    @jfejapan2829 29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Great analysis! Another way to reinforce the difference between the baseline and the basepath is to note that the rulebook actually calls it "his" basepath. The runner establishes HIS basepath when the tag attempt occurs. THE baseline is the direct line between two bases or homeplate. To quote the exact wording (from umpirebible): Rule 5.09(b)(1) allows a runner up to three feet either way off his base path to avoid a tag. More than that and the runner is out."
    There should have been no call, and he is safe at 3rd base.

  • @user-ub7rx4dg3c
    @user-ub7rx4dg3c หลายเดือนก่อน

    This is clear to me

  • @dworldisourplayground1762
    @dworldisourplayground1762 27 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The way you explained the rule and showed the replay I have to agree with you that he was safe. Why is this not a reviewable play in NY? This could make a big difference in a close game.

  • @LukeMichaels-tr3pf
    @LukeMichaels-tr3pf 28 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Ok, I have seen many major league baseball games and have seen this type of play more than I would like to mention. So, to answer this question, what I have come to understand is that the umpire has the final say if the runner is safe or out. In this situation it is unfortunate that Bellinger happened to be out.
    If you see other clips with this exact same situation you would see that the runner would safe.
    Again, it’s the umpire who ends up with the final decision.
    That’s my opinion.
    👍👀⚾️⚾️⚾️

  • @DrVarner
    @DrVarner 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Tag attempt started at the run down. Defensive player was in the base path a bit which caused the runner to avoid him.
    I think the Ump made the least controversial call. It’s baseball on a game of tag.

  • @Greasyspleen
    @Greasyspleen หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    I think he swerved less than 3 ft at the tag attempt, but then he had some momentum that carried him way further out of a straight line to the base, and that's why he's out.

  • @WaxwingJohn
    @WaxwingJohn หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think the point where he is well beyond 3 feet from the "path" is when he makes his last step to lunge for the bag. The belly of his evasive move is greatest right before the "path,"as established when the tag was attempted, is nearing the bag. His right foot seems pretty far up the foul line into left.

    • @WaxwingJohn
      @WaxwingJohn หลายเดือนก่อน

      Seems I'm in agreement with @WonkNRoll just below a few posts

  • @CharlesShapiro-ox9oo
    @CharlesShapiro-ox9oo หลายเดือนก่อน

    Now that I understand the rule I agree with you...easily safe. 1:44 1:47

  • @Desirsar
    @Desirsar หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    At the apex of the curve he made after the ball is caught, he's well, WELL outside of three feet of the line to the bag. The play also illustrates the purpose of the rule. If the ball is thrown ahead of you, you don't dodge around the tag, you turn around and go back to the last base.

  • @lorenzobeckmann3736
    @lorenzobeckmann3736 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I didn't notice; what year did the Mel Hall rule disappear?

  • @jasonwillard4943
    @jasonwillard4943 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I always look at the dirt/grass cut off it's still pretty hard where the tag was attempted and where the farthest the runner ends up and that is tough 1 or 2 split frames when bellinger starts to move around right as he's catching the ball. But he definitely moved more than 3ft if you take the frame right before and the frame as it's catch it's very close to 3ft hard to tell by the angle and distance. I think I'm gonna have to give it to the ump on this one cause your first spot of where a runner chooses his path is when he first makes his move to avoid given he ran basically a straight line if you look at his feet and where the grass line is he stays basically straight looks to be around maybe 5ft from the grass again hard to say. And when he's around 10-15 or so feet from third when he's diving back to get to third. The distance from the grass has doubled I'd say that had to be 4-5ft to 8-10ft difference so 4-5ft id say he moved. Again very hard to say a better ground level straight angle would really help. And yeah that tenth of a second from when the tag started makes quite a difference. But .1 seconds I'm sure the ump felt the tag started as bellinger began to turn towards left field and id say if you count the turn because he went straight up until then. I'm gonna say yeah he definitely went out more than 3ft. To me I'm ok with this call I don't blame an ump for this after seeing it in slow no and frame by frame even if it was incorrect. Ump has to make that call in real time.

  • @tjv323
    @tjv323 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Wouldn't the "tag attempt" start when the SS gets the ball at 2nd?

    • @slpguy6026
      @slpguy6026 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Nah, not till fielder has the ball. You can’t attempt a tag without the ball.

    • @woodrowbunopaddle
      @woodrowbunopaddle หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      agree with this. If not runner could run to the outfield grass ,then only establish a "base path" once tag attempt

    • @slpguy6026
      @slpguy6026 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I think you’re right about fielder being in the way. Perhaps Bellinger should have run into him? Not maliciously, but what if he had? Obstruction right? Fielder in the way, without having the ball well ahead of the runner.

    • @RickB.rolling
      @RickB.rolling หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Yep. Runner set base line the sec he ran from. 2nd baseman with ball

    • @woodrowbunopaddle
      @woodrowbunopaddle หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@RickB.rolling 0:55 so then Antonelli has it wrong when talking about the base path being established when tag is attempted?I would agree that when 2nd base is chasing ,he's attempting to tag.Yet Antonelli talks about the extra 2-3 feet when the actual tag was attempted

  • @johntunstall5452
    @johntunstall5452 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Just a classic grey area play, part of the beauty of baseball.

  • @StevenBLevy
    @StevenBLevy หลายเดือนก่อน

    Look at the runner's step at 5:12-5:13 of the video, where he stumbles slightly before beginning his dive. That seems to me more than three feet... but it's very close, as you say.

  • @patcon314
    @patcon314 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What about the fact that 3B is directly in the straight-line path from the runner to 3rd base BEFORE he has the ball, forcing the runner to veer from a straight path to the base?
    In a rundown (or anytime) is a fielder who does not have the ball allowed to obstruct a runner's direct path to a base, especially that far from the base?
    What if the runner simply stayed on his established path to the base and ran into the fielder who was waiting to catch the throw?

  • @samueldrazkowski2908
    @samueldrazkowski2908 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It looks like the third baseman is in Bellinger's way without possessing the ball, so Bellinger tries to "go around", but with timing of tag attempt and how close the tag attempt was, I'd say safe

  • @davidhill3382
    @davidhill3382 27 วันที่ผ่านมา

    That's good information! I would say that like most things in baseball, it's a subjective call by the ump. It just so happens that some umpires are subject to be a little more awful than others! I would have called him safe with a missed tag by Mr Platinum glove.

  • @nazfrde
    @nazfrde หลายเดือนก่อน

    I do think it's 3 feet (remember that's 1/2 a body), but I also think the runner was already past the third baseman by the time he tried to apply the tag.

  • @skydiverclassc2031
    @skydiverclassc2031 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The arm's length measurement is what I use here in California, which requires cars to be at least 3' away from bicyclists when you pass one. If you can reach out and swat the cyclist, you're too close. 😝

  • @shawnbrennan7526
    @shawnbrennan7526 หลายเดือนก่อน

    His right foot was definitely more than 3 feet away from the angled basepath after he moved out and had to drive back toward the bag.
    So is the 3 feet measured at his head, waist, or shoe?

  • @LouT1501
    @LouT1501 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Was that call reviewable?

  • @gregh2322
    @gregh2322 หลายเดือนก่อน

    If you look at Bellinger after the missed tag attempt, he appears to veer more than 3 feet outside of the established base path.

  • @laelfeller5213
    @laelfeller5213 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Definitely out!

  • @michaelmetzler2638
    @michaelmetzler2638 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    There were so many layers to this. Was Arenado obstructing, so he was forced outside? He may or may have been out of the path. The real interesting thing is the bad defense.

    • @user-pu2cj3no5f
      @user-pu2cj3no5f หลายเดือนก่อน

      Exactly I would have called him safe, just for that.

  • @darrinmorse4767
    @darrinmorse4767 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Would the straight line be made when the defender has the ball behind him? Also, could there be interference on the defender? He should have ran into the defender and been given the base.

  • @ronpeacock9939
    @ronpeacock9939 หลายเดือนก่อน

    They could have also call Obstruction because the runner started his veer to avoid a collision prior to Arenado having the baseball... I could make the case for both. If it was me.. I probably would have given the OBS call.

  • @joemagrino8909
    @joemagrino8909 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Could obstruction be called. The fielder, since he reverted the ball a little late. I see fielder without the ball standing in base line

  • @MikeHart72
    @MikeHart72 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    We have the benefit of a replay, he was not out of the base path. In real time it’s a tough call and most likely looks out.
    This is a rule a lot of people don’t understand. So many people think the base path is 3 feet either way from a straight line to the base. I coached for years and once tried the Skunk in the Outfield play. If you don’t know what this is look it up, it even shows the umps how to call the play. Everyone thought I was a fool, even the umps had no clue and called my runner out
    I only tried this for fun but that was the only time. After the game was finished I showed the umps the video about it and they were amazed.

  • @Tolerancematters
    @Tolerancematters หลายเดือนก่อน

    I agree with the third base coach. He's safe. In fairness to the ump, he calls it as he sees it without instant replay.

  • @johndoe-yw7eb
    @johndoe-yw7eb หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    The concept of when a tag attempt is occurring seems to be the point of confusion. When the shortstop is chasing the runner with the ball, THAT is the tag attempt, and that's the point at which the base path is established. I still don't know whether or not he deviated 3 feet outside of that, but the focus should NOT be on when the 3rd baseman received the ball.

    • @jnam23
      @jnam23 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      you cannot attempt a tag without the ball. even having the ball itself does not initiate a tag attempt. for it to be a tag attempt, you must have the ball AND try to tag the runner.

    • @johndoe-yw7eb
      @johndoe-yw7eb หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jnam23 Let me repeat it for you: when the shortstop is CHASING the runner WITH the ball, he is ATTEMPTING a TAG. As per YOUR definition.

    • @gaspara9817
      @gaspara9817 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@johndoe-yw7eb Then this is obstruction. As Arenado forced him to leave the basepath by moving towards him in his basepath without the ball.

    • @alanhess9306
      @alanhess9306 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@johndoe-yw7eb Once Arenado attempted a tag, the base path was reestablished. A tag attempt by the SS is irrelevant.

    • @johndoe-yw7eb
      @johndoe-yw7eb หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@gaspara9817 I’d accept that

  • @joefazio2258
    @joefazio2258 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Also wasn't the third baseman essentially in the runners path while he is making his way to third? Seems like bellinger would have had to run into the third baseman to get to third. He had to veer off regardless of the tag. I thought the new rule in 2024 stated that the defensive player can't block that path.

  • @alang5293
    @alang5293 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I was watching it live as a Cardinals fan and thought it was safe

  • @LucianDevine
    @LucianDevine หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I think that because of the runner's step to his right, our left, before the tag attempt was made, he likely wasn't out of the base path. He established a wider base path as a result of his step, meaning that he prolly wasn't 3 feet away from his established base path.

  • @ntataryn
    @ntataryn หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Sorry I lost focus trying to figure out how to drar a line

  • @jedgrabman
    @jedgrabman หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    There's some additional weirdness with the angles on this play. The baseline is a straight line to the bag and Bellinger's run is aimed at a point several feet down the line from 3rd base. He's running basically parallel to the line from 2nd to 3rd, but that line isn't the basepath. He's moving further from the basepath than it initially looks and that might make the difference.

    • @slpguy6026
      @slpguy6026 หลายเดือนก่อน

      No he’s not. He took a line from out toward left, legally, before the tag attempt, to his right side of the bag. He very easily slid into that bag. 💯 legal. If you’re concerned about the straightness of his line you’re being too concrete. He will swing out a bit, then take a couple steps to straighten out. This creates a bit of an arc. Can’t help it. Runners can’t stop on a dime and redirect with a perfect vector

    • @acockbur
      @acockbur หลายเดือนก่อน

      This is what I saw. He was probably still in the base path as he passed Arenado but got further away from it as he continued on. By the time he veered back toward the bag he was several feet further out. The umpire was standing in line with the bag and had a good angle to see that.

  • @williammaddock9179
    @williammaddock9179 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It's a close one, but I call the runner out, because at the point of the tag attempt his momentum was taking him away from the base, and I don't think he corrected quickly enough.

  • @guyray1504
    @guyray1504 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Didn't the tag attempt start when the SS got the ball and they started to 3rd?

  • @akaredcrossbow
    @akaredcrossbow หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    It shouldn’t have been an issue, he is 🗣️SAFE!

  • @genesispuredeaf2390
    @genesispuredeaf2390 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The people calling his move away from the 3rd base fielder a second tag attempt are not baseball people. You don’t establish a base path running away from a base but running towards one. Hence if there as a tag attempt made by the short stop, it would only apply to the base runner attempting to get back to second base.

  • @martindejong6496
    @martindejong6496 25 วันที่ผ่านมา

    For those asking, there's literally a new base path created for each tag attempt. Maybe dumb but that's the rule.

  • @samuelturner4362
    @samuelturner4362 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I'm a Cardinal fan, and he was safe.

  • @willpina
    @willpina หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    The first tag attempt occurred when the SS ran towards Bellinger, not when the 3B tried to tag him, that would have been the second attempt. Therefore, he is out.

    • @TeranRealtor
      @TeranRealtor 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ....... so you're saying he ran like that..... to avoid the tag attempt by the SS? That's some mighty strange running!
      No. The basepath being established is where the runner is, at the moment the third baseman tries to tag him. The runner dodged, to avoid the third baseman's tag.

    • @willpina
      @willpina 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@TeranRealtor the tag attempt is initiated by the SS chasing the runner. If the SS would have received the ball from the pitcher and then just turned and thrown to the 3rd baseman, then he wouldn't have made a tag attempt.
      Running with the ball towards a runner is in itself a tag attempt. You don't need to extend your glove or swipe at a runner.

  • @harty3113
    @harty3113 หลายเดือนก่อน

    In real time he definitely looked out of the base path but really looking at it, is there no rule for a defensive player standing in the base path without the ball? He's in his way before the ball is even thrown.

  • @slpguy6026
    @slpguy6026 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    I think you’re right about fielder being in the way. Perhaps Bellinger should have run into him? Not maliciously, but what if he had? Obstruction right? Fielder in the way, without having the ball well ahead of the runner. And yes, tough call to make in real time.

    • @johng6350
      @johng6350 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      No obstruction. The fielder in question was in the process of receiving a throw so he's in the clear; assuming he doesn't deliberately try to trip the runner or something.

    • @jodosh
      @jodosh หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      ​@@johng6350the baseball obstruction rule has a wrinkle. The field has the right of way when fielding a batted ball, all other times the runner does. The fact the field was trying to receive the thrown ball doesn't negate the possible obstruction. (It would be runners interference if the fielder was trying to field a batted ball)

    • @dinog3052
      @dinog3052 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Years ago. That’s Shane Victorino did against the Giants. He was in a run down between 1st and 2nd. And ran into an infielder who was kinda in the base path. Got the obstruction call. Made it look like an accident. Kinda funny too.

    • @Niel2760
      @Niel2760 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      If the fielder doesn’t have or is not receiving a throw it’s obstruction. The gray area occurs with receiving the throw. MLB has placed an emphasis on calling obstruction on fielders who position themselves in a manner to be in the way unnecessarily. See Rizzo at first base putting his leg down to block the base before receiving the ball. I could see an argument that 3B was in the base path unnecessarily…

    • @thatzwhat
      @thatzwhat หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Niel2760 Upon watching replay, it looks like obstruction to me. (In real time from outfield camera it looked like Bellinger was out of the base path.) Antonelli has it right when he points out that Arenado is on wrong side to receive throw, which delayed throw and caused Arenado to be blocking Bellinger's path to 3B when Bellinger reached Arenado. Really unusual for Arenado to make a fielding mistake.

  • @Otis1163-of2lb
    @Otis1163-of2lb หลายเดือนก่อน

    Safe. No wait - out. No wait-safe. Tough call, but he didn't move three feet out until he was past the fielder. Safe!

  • @danielklink9814
    @danielklink9814 26 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Ur arm plus the glove is more than three feet measured (for most of those players at least) so it's rly close. But I think in real time it's the right call. Threw feet isn't as far as u think

  • @byronhorde5892
    @byronhorde5892 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    According to the way you explained the rule, I would say... SAFE!

  • @Bimmy_Lee
    @Bimmy_Lee หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Bellinger is 6'4" so 3' is roughly from his belt to the ground. That is not a lot of space. I watched this game live and thought he did not go out of the base line. But after seeing this slow motion replay, I do think he veered more than 3 feet out of the path. Either way, it's close and I'm okay with either call.

  • @mwduck
    @mwduck หลายเดือนก่อน

    Yes, one of the hardest calls for an umpire.

  • @michaelsisk2017
    @michaelsisk2017 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I would have to say safe after the explanation of the rule.

  • @jonnya3425
    @jonnya3425 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I guess my question is, what would the ruling be if Bellenger ran through Arenado and prevented him from catching the ball?
    Looking at it with the benefit of replay, he beat the ball, and IMO, he did not go out of the baseline. He's safe.

    • @willpina
      @willpina หลายเดือนก่อน

      If Arenado is obstructing the base path without the ball, the runner is awarded 3rd base

  • @robertmatthews4285
    @robertmatthews4285 หลายเดือนก่อน

    When the tag starts is not defined in rule and is therefore a judgement call. In real time, the base path established by the runner is a judgement call. This is pretty close on both accounts. I’d say the deciding factor here is not really defined in the rules. The runners exaggerated movement to avoid the fielder/tag was probably the deciding factor for the umpire. My choice as a runner was always to go straight at the fielder. Wasn’t looking to hurt people or cause collision. Just wanted to force the fielder to execute to get me. In this case, looking at the fielder and ball location, I think runner would have been better going straight in & attempt to get obstruction call. But then the runner doesn’t have eyes in the back of his head and instant replay before making that decision like we have.

  • @JamesLeonidas
    @JamesLeonidas หลายเดือนก่อน

    that rule doesnt make much sense to me, or there are extra stipulations or something. So i could run to the edge of the outfield? What would a straight line to the base look like then and how would a tag attempt even occur

    • @teebob21
      @teebob21 หลายเดือนก่อน

      A runner defines his own base path. If there is no tag attempt, you can run anywhere you please. The rule is perfectly clear: once the tag attempt starts or is imminent, the runner is restricted to a straight line +/- 3 feet from his present position (which could be all the way in the outfield) to the base which he is trying to reach.

    • @JamesLeonidas
      @JamesLeonidas 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@teebob21 yes the rule is clear but if that is the only rule then there are extreme cases that literally dont make sense -- lets say the catcher currently has the ball, and as a base running rounding second i just start booking it to the outfield. Catcher throws it to second base, I am currently in left field. Now what?

    • @teebob21
      @teebob21 28 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@JamesLeonidas The runner remains free to establish his own base path in any direction until a tag attempt is imminent. It's not that hard to understand. Once the tag attempt happens, the runner is limited to +/- 3 feet from a straight line starting at his position and ending at the base he is trying to reach....even if he's out in center field when the tag attempt is made.

    • @JamesLeonidas
      @JamesLeonidas 27 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​@@teebob21 Yes, I get the rule can do without your condescension. My point is that by this rule you can literally extend the base path far beyond 90 ft and what qualifies as a tag attempt becomes very complicated. So the infielders must travel to left field to make a tag attempt? Does the act alone of an in fielder running or throwing the ball in that direction count, or can I just keep running deeper into the outfield because no one is close enough to make a tag attempt. If the act alone of them moving toward me qualifies as an attempt then in this specific video the tag attempt starts at the very beginning of the video.

    • @teebob21
      @teebob21 27 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@JamesLeonidas It's not complicated at all. A tag attempt occurs when a fielder has the ball and attempts to tag the runner. Basic common sense means that in order to do so, the fielder must be near enough the runner that it would be reasonable to think a tag could be successful. Until such time, a runner can run anywhere in live ball territory such that he pleases, all the way out to the warning track.

  • @bugscranks7605
    @bugscranks7605 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It looked like 1st base never went to cover home, and P and C were at third base so he could have took Home , too

  • @67L48
    @67L48 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    I believe the tag attempt begins when F6 begins chasing him with the ball, not when F5 reaches out with his glove.

    • @stevehamman4465
      @stevehamman4465 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Chasing is not a tag attempt. The three ft , is about purposely trying to run around a dude with the ball. If one player makes an attempt to tag , and throws to a different player, it starts all over with the new player in possession of the ball. Its about , BASE PATH,, AND BASE LINE. Close Call Sports on YT has videos on this! According to the book,, this could also be ,, OBSTRUCTION on the third baseman. He was in the base PATH , without the ball charging at the runner! To many judgment calls these days!!

    • @MwD676
      @MwD676 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      SS chasing him toward 3rd does not establish a path. It absolutely occurs when 3B has the ball.

  • @alvinthecat8426
    @alvinthecat8426 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Base path is reestablished each time the fielders throw the ball. Looks like runner anticipated the throw the 3rd and moved a bit toward left field before 3B got the ball. Base path got a bit steeper. IMHO safe.

  • @Greygon313
    @Greygon313 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Tough call in real time. But looking at when the ball was caught, I think it would have been equally arguable if the umpire had ruled him safe. By the rule, based on when the tag was attempted, I don’t think he then moved three feet outside of the baseline.

  • @peterschreiner9245
    @peterschreiner9245 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Isn't Arenado interfering with Bellinger's path to the base?

  • @nichodemus10
    @nichodemus10 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    I think he is out.
    If you take his position from even the end of the tag attempt he is running towards the ump and not the base. That almost immediately puts him out of the base path because the base path does not care about the runners speed or direction it only cares about starting position and the straight line from there to the base. His first two steps after the tag are towards the ump and not towards the base and if you are not running directly at the base when the tag is attempted, you are going to be out. And furth evidence is that his slide starts about 6 feet outside of the baseline pretty close to the bag, and the baseline and base path have converged once you are close to the bag and six feet from one is more than 3 feet from the other.
    For him to be safe he would have needed to make the dodge that he did, and be immediately heading directly towards third as that is the base path that was created. Understandably he looks safe because he ran straight after the tag attempt, but it was the running straight and not making a jagged turn to the base that got him out.

    • @MikeHart72
      @MikeHart72 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      There is no base path until a defender attempts a tag. A runner go go all the way to the outfield if he wants if no tag attempt has been made.

    • @nichodemus10
      @nichodemus10 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @MikeHart72 I am aware of this based on my post. The base path is created at the tag attempt. The problem is that the runner is not running in the direction of the base path when it is created(because it doesnt care about runner speed or direction, it is a line between where he is and where he needs to go not where he is going). Because he is running towards the ump and not the bag he is running away from the newly formed base path and is out.

  • @michaelsharpe1432
    @michaelsharpe1432 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    With this much time and opportunity to review from various angles, an argument could be made for safe but, in real time and from the umpire’s perspective, it did appear that the runner went beyond three fret from the base path. Probably not a challengeable call?

  • @phillipshipley9113
    @phillipshipley9113 27 วันที่ผ่านมา

    There's a rule for fielder interference as well. The fielder was in the baseline without the ball. So the base should be given because of the interference.

  • @xapie128
    @xapie128 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If they want to enforce that rule, there needs to be lines drawn on the field that define the path.

  • @jasonjones2930
    @jasonjones2930 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I'm a Sox fan so as much as I hate the cubs lol he should be safe. I feel the the position player should be called for interference because runner is avoiding a collision and the position player did not have the ball to be blocking him on the base path.

  • @legendaryskinman7305
    @legendaryskinman7305 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I use to get called out doing the same thing. You can't run more then a foot and a half outside your straight line to the bag.. or your out

    • @alanhess9306
      @alanhess9306 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It's 3 feet, not a foot and a half. The base path is 6 feet wide, 3 feet left or right of the runner's position when the tag is attempted.

  • @robprator5890
    @robprator5890 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Regardless of the 3 foot rule or the fact that the rule doesn’t specify which player needs to “attempt the tag” (because the player chasing is also attempting a tag, so CB running outside the path would technically be an out)
    I would call interference on the 3rd baseman because he is standing on the path without the ball. So it’s safe in my book

    • @Niel2760
      @Niel2760 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Obstruction, not interference. Also fielder is in the process of catching a thrown ball.

    • @thatzwhat
      @thatzwhat หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@Niel2760 He's not in the process of catching a thrown ball until the ball reaches his glove. Before that, he's waiting on the ball to arrive and he can't block the runner's access to the base.

    • @user-wp5rx8ig5l
      @user-wp5rx8ig5l หลายเดือนก่อน

      Player with the ball attempts to make a tag. The third baseman was the one who attempted the tag he is allowed to stand there.

    • @Niel2760
      @Niel2760 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@thatzwhat well did the MLB umpire call obstruction?

    • @thatzwhat
      @thatzwhat หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@user-wp5rx8ig5l When he has the ball he can stand in the baserunner's path. Before the ball is in his glove, he's not allowed to move into Bellinger's path, even unintentionally. That's obstruction.

  • @henrycortez2117
    @henrycortez2117 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    There can be a case made that there was obstruction on the part of the fielder. I believe Belli was safe and not out of the base line

  • @deanrogers9588
    @deanrogers9588 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    He made two adult sized strides to avoid tag. That should be greater than 3 feet. FYI , no runner ever thinks they are out of base lane, so don't rely on their opinion.

  • @kg4wwn
    @kg4wwn หลายเดือนก่อน

    Is the runner not required to get out of the way of interfering with the fielder making the play? Or should he have just ran through him and tried to dislodge the ball?

    • @slpguy6026
      @slpguy6026 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Absolutely. He can’t be obstructing until he has the ball. Bellinger should have simply run into him.

    • @chrisschack9716
      @chrisschack9716 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      He wasn't fielding a hit ball, he was catching a thrown ball.

    • @user-cv7se4gc8h
      @user-cv7se4gc8h หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Absolutely not! A fielder cannot block a runners path without possession of the ball. A runner only has to avoid a fielder on a batted ball. Belly should’ve been called safe on fielder interference.

    • @johng6350
      @johng6350 หลายเดือนก่อน

      You guys need to read the actual rule.

    • @slpguy6026
      @slpguy6026 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@johng6350 which says….fielder cannot obstruct the runner without clear possession of the ball. I just read it. Have you not seen all of the controversial calls at the plate since 2014? You cannot block any base or the plate.

  • @jeffrey.a.hanson
    @jeffrey.a.hanson หลายเดือนก่อน

    Safe. Bellinger could argue he’s avoiding contact with first move with no ball in sight. Tho, umps look for loss of balance after avoidance move to keep consistency.

  • @18thStateOutdoors
    @18thStateOutdoors หลายเดือนก่อน

    I had an understanding of the rule...but i like the explanation. close call but im ruling...SAFE

  • @ChrisGeorge-sm1ky
    @ChrisGeorge-sm1ky หลายเดือนก่อน

    Couldn't bellinger have run into arenado for an interference call instead of trying to go around. We were taught if caught in a rundown look for an opportunity to run into a fielder who leaves themselves in the play without the ball. Btw I'm with the he is safe group.

  • @dash4800
    @dash4800 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Even in realntime i dont k ow how you could aay he is out. At the very minimum the runnwr has to be allowed to run around the defender whobis standing in his way, otherwise you could just block him fron ever advancing. He clearly starts going around him before he even has the ball. This to mw is as xlear cut as it gets.

  • @barbaraanneneale3674
    @barbaraanneneale3674 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I agree according to the rules, this man was safe.

  • @patertuus8
    @patertuus8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I don't think the SS ever attempted a tag. As soon as he received the throw from the pitcher, he immediately transferred the ball to his throwing hand. His intent was to make the throw to 3B so that fielder could make the tag attempt. By the time the third baseman received the throw, Bellinger's momentum was already taking him towards left field. As soon as the runner's right foot came down, he immediately took a straight path to third. With no personal skin in the game, I say the runner is safe.