You fail to recognize the increase in home sales in YYC was a direct correlation to people from BC and Ontario migrating to Alberta. Both of those provinces, particularly Ontario are seeing their RE collapse. If people cannot sale their property in say Ontario they will not be able to buy in Alberta. Calgary market is going to see a considerable drop in the next 6 to 12 months. Combined with high unemployment and dropping oil prices, things could get ugly here extremely fast.
@@michellerousseau4277 we will see. Thanks for sharing as I agree with many of your points. I think and believe there will still be people moving here mixed with locals being able to finally make their moves without the rush that our market has been.
You make a really good point. I don’t see house prices skyrocketing like in 2021/2022. Our economy is on life support right now, and if care is not taken, a depression is likely coming.
I hope you are right but I can't see it being the case. If it happens then people like me (sitting on the sidelines with down payment sitting pretty) can get into what we want. I refuse to spend these over inflated prices on yyc RE. Bring on the "crash"
Absolutely true. To add to that fact, people in Ontario won’t sell unless home prices start to soar again. Why would they sell at a loss or for just a small profit? I know many people who have decided against moving for this very reason. But another major factor is the unemployment situation in Calgary. What some realtors seem to overlook is that Toronto’s growth was supported by the size of its neighboring cities. Mississauga alone has nearly a million people, and then there’s Brampton, Hamilton, Markham, Vaughan, and Oakville. What’s the next major city near Calgary? Airdrie? Red Deer? In the Toronto area, people commute between cities for work all the time. That kind of job market simply doesn’t exist in Calgary or its surrounding towns.
Just look at the historical sales trends year by year. We are just following the historical cooling period in the market. Calgary is still too cheap... look at the Canadian dollar hahaha 😆 so cheap
wage growth? Thats my problem in calgary, companies only willing to pay under average rates for the work I do, when my rent is at record highs. Any where else I do gravel / cement work, or carpentry work, or moving jobs i get paid way more than if I do them in Calgary. Like one company wanted me to do heavy labour of over 400lbs between 2 people, driving large trucks, having a forklift ticket, and other tickets for like 6 bucks above whatever min wage is? It is not that I am not willing to do the work, but the pay I get offered is highly insulting, and when I ask for more, they are unwilling to budge in the slightest.
Carpenter here, and I agree . They want to pay 26-28 and act like that's a good deal 😂. My current boss is known for telling people they are replaceable .
@@freedombro your current boss is about to find out that other than filipinos and ontarians no one knows how to build in Canada. I'd fire your boss for an entitled attitude, and lackluster skillset.
My friends just listed their house on Friday. The house is 32 years old and the only upgrade is hardwood floors. They had immediate interest and it sold on Saturday. Crazy. I'll be selling my house in a month or so and hope it sells that fast.
You have a serious blind spot. In migration to Alberta was close to 200,000, last 12 months, april. If this continues the demand side will continue to stay high. You cited zero migration numbers.
I agree with you… not a blind spot at all. Just didn’t bring that up in this particular video as we’ve talked a lot about it on the channel. From what I’ve found and believe that the Alberta migration will possibly slow and not keep the same pace. There still are many coming here and I think we are a very attractive province and city for many to live in and create a great future in. I do believe we won’t see them coming here at the same pace of the past couple of years. Do you think it will stay the same or slow down?
LOL. Please read @michellerousseau4277 comment and then my reply to it. You also have a blind spot. Those same people that came are now struggling to find work. Oh and with the big tech lay offs coming soon with AI Advancement, and oil prices going down, it's going to be a big mess.
I think the Biggest risk now is WTI below $70. Remember with 33% inflation since 2015, we’re looking at a quite depressing price range for crude. If it continues for another 6 months, expect significant downtrend in job market and real estate similar to 2015-2017.
I’m guessing it would be totally meaningless. Alberta correlates with oil prices, which drives no other market in Canada. Comparing Alberta and Texas would make sense, but they have a bigger and broader economy.
@mkyhou1160 I'm not sure that this correlation is causation. In fact, I don't think it is. This time, it's affordability, immigration, diversification etc...which would also mean the market will be affected cost and availability of capital, immigration and IRR for developers and RE speculators.
@@jasonpepper658that's because a lot of office jobs were outsourced and they learned to be leaner. In the 'good times' where a moron could make 100k in 2006, there was so much bloat. Ironic that they complained about gov't but in O&G it was insane levels. They cut a lot, improved efficiency, and ended up with a similar output. That's not coming back. Possibly the outsourced EPC roles as it really hinders communication and ease of dealing with them.
@@blackbirdbeatle I agree and understand. Lauts sees the oilsands similar to a manufacturing cycle as opposed to the large jobs contributor. Which is why the Calgary RE market s NOT linked to oil price.
Hey just wondering if you can label your graphs a bit better to include the property type that would be great. Example 22:22 seems to be for town homes would be great to say it is for town homes :D
3 families from BC moved back after buying house last year in Alberta. They are unable to find job and going back. Their houses are not getting at the price they bought
@@2john149 agreed. I’ve found lately lots of builders really took buyers for a ride on pre sales and it’s hurting them now as they can’t sell for what they paid. Ugh 😑
Thanks for the comment and watching, and truthfully I don't know your situation financially, what your expectations are for this purchase and so much more so I don't know... Do you think it was a bad idea?
@@ChamberlainGroup I purchased it as an investment. I might consider living in it just to try it out but most likely it’ll be a rental property. I live in Toronto with my parents and work a pretty good job.
Great analysis. Based on all the data I think it is fair to expect a decrease in the condo segment if we are back in the balanced environment and the interest rate is still decreasing. Right?
Thanks for the useful content and stats. Following your “seems like a great year to sell your condo” video earlier this year, I believe you had two videos about the subject, I sold my condo after 7 years at a reasonably great price for condos in Calgary. Thanks
@@ChamberlainGroup Not unfortunately. I connected with your team and had a realtor assigned and reached out to me 2 years ago when I tried to sell the condo but prices where not high enough to convince me to pull the trigger. And although he was a great realtor IMO, he kind of didn’t keep the connection with me. So I ended up selling with another realtor who kept connecting with me over the last two years. And again, thanks for your advice for selling the condo cause I believe no one else could sell in that building above my price after June.
My brother just signed a 1 bedroom, 900 sq foot lease in Kits for $2500. $2200 in Calgary for the same quality/ age / parking etc. Vancouver is 10x better than Calgary. Vancouver deserves to be worth more than Calgary rent and real estate. Calgary is over bought and there is soooo much rental inventory that is sitting. We will see rents come down the next 6-12 months and with it prices.
Thank you. I appreciate that! I really keep pushing to keep it relevant and look amazing too. Even though this was shot on my phone and in a hotel room I think it turned out great lol. 😂
WTI bellow $70 and there is conflict in the Mideast and war in Ukraine. OPEC announced prolonged production cuts and oil dropped further. All that means is bad for Calgary real estate. it's real simple
A balanced market is good in some ways because you pay your mortgage down while the market doesn't increase as much, which really helps move up buyers ❤
"When youre holding the hammer, everything looks like a nail" This guy is obviously shilling real estate because his paycheque relies on it lmao. Overpaid secretaries these guys are.
Hopefully your future videos will be less "PRICES TO THE MOON" vibe. Like you had with your 3 buddies supposedly experts all saying the same thing. LOL.
Thanks for responding here. I think you may have missed the point of that last video, or it wasn't presented well, either way, none of us were saying that prices will go to the moon. More we were discussing how hopeful we were for the future of Calgary in that there has been a huge change in our city, tons of people moved here and in the coming 10 or so years that we hope that the city is able to find it's footing, grow properly and continue to be an amazing city that we have lived in for years. Nothing to do with prices going through the roof... or 'to the moon'. :)
@@ChamberlainGroup I agree with all those points. But when you have a panel of 4 people(including yourself) saying the same thing..its like your listening to media. Everyone is saying the exact same thing. If you are going to bring experts on it would be nice to hear some original/ outside the box opinions not 4 people saying the exact same thing because they are scared to lose deals as realtor.
I love Calgary but why someone would buy 600k real state here if Toronto has reached this level for 2-3 bedrooms townhomes and condo ? Having access to the center of the economy in the country will definitely add value and contribute to growth over the e long term. Calgary is a good city but far away to provide all vancouver and toronto does. For people to start buying again in Calgary it needs to drop 20-40% then it will make sense again. I have seen people saying this line of thinking, therefore, we can kinda predict what is going to happen with sales and inventory here in the short term 👀
Vancouver has nothing except mild weather. Toronto has advantages of a big city, but only if you can afford it. it is not NY that you can earn more, so it is worth expending more.
Nowadays they say they will keep moving here from ontario for the lifestyle, next year i guess they will say, they found gold in the river or something
many reasons...not all of us want to live in shoe boxes. Id rather a single family home for 600 k here than a 600k condo in toronto eww. Also, people have many reasons for choosing a specific city. I could never see myself living anywhere east of here....I don't like the vibe and the types of people and id be way too far from my entire family. We don't all base our decision on one factor (which im assuming in your case is weather).
What it means to vote liberal: Less freedom. Higher taxes. Higher inflation. Less jobs Less money to take home Worse standard of living. Justin Trudeau just wasn't worth it.
You fail to recognize the increase in home sales in YYC was a direct correlation to people from BC and Ontario migrating to Alberta. Both of those provinces, particularly Ontario are seeing their RE collapse. If people cannot sale their property in say Ontario they will not be able to buy in Alberta. Calgary market is going to see a considerable drop in the next 6 to 12 months. Combined with high unemployment and dropping oil prices, things could get ugly here extremely fast.
@@michellerousseau4277 we will see. Thanks for sharing as I agree with many of your points. I think and believe there will still be people moving here mixed with locals being able to finally make their moves without the rush that our market has been.
You make a really good point. I don’t see house prices skyrocketing like in 2021/2022. Our economy is on life support right now, and if care is not taken, a depression is likely coming.
I hope you are right but I can't see it being the case. If it happens then people like me (sitting on the sidelines with down payment sitting pretty) can get into what we want. I refuse to spend these over inflated prices on yyc RE. Bring on the "crash"
Absolutely true. To add to that fact, people in Ontario won’t sell unless home prices start to soar again. Why would they sell at a loss or for just a small profit? I know many people who have decided against moving for this very reason. But another major factor is the unemployment situation in Calgary. What some realtors seem to overlook is that Toronto’s growth was supported by the size of its neighboring cities. Mississauga alone has nearly a million people, and then there’s Brampton, Hamilton, Markham, Vaughan, and Oakville. What’s the next major city near Calgary? Airdrie? Red Deer? In the Toronto area, people commute between cities for work all the time. That kind of job market simply doesn’t exist in Calgary or its surrounding towns.
Just look at the historical sales trends year by year. We are just following the historical cooling period in the market.
Calgary is still too cheap... look at the Canadian dollar hahaha 😆 so cheap
Wage growth is slowing??? The only wage growth was to minimum wage
wage growth? Thats my problem in calgary, companies only willing to pay under average rates for the work I do, when my rent is at record highs. Any where else I do gravel / cement work, or carpentry work, or moving jobs i get paid way more than if I do them in Calgary.
Like one company wanted me to do heavy labour of over 400lbs between 2 people, driving large trucks, having a forklift ticket, and other tickets for like 6 bucks above whatever min wage is? It is not that I am not willing to do the work, but the pay I get offered is highly insulting, and when I ask for more, they are unwilling to budge in the slightest.
Carpenter here, and I agree . They want to pay 26-28 and act like that's a good deal 😂.
My current boss is known for telling people they are replaceable .
@@freedombro your current boss is about to find out that other than filipinos and ontarians no one knows how to build in Canada.
I'd fire your boss for an entitled attitude, and lackluster skillset.
@@freedombro Sadly it's because you are replaceable. Their are a million new Canadians waiting for a chance to take your job.
My friends just listed their house on Friday. The house is 32 years old and the only upgrade is hardwood floors. They had immediate interest and it sold on Saturday. Crazy. I'll be selling my house in a month or so and hope it sells that fast.
Amazing. If we can help please let us know www.chamberlaingroup.ca/contact/ second opinions are always welcomed so you can see how we do it!!! -jared
You have a serious blind spot. In migration to Alberta was close to 200,000, last 12 months, april. If this continues the demand side will continue to stay high. You cited zero migration numbers.
I agree with you… not a blind spot at all. Just didn’t bring that up in this particular video as we’ve talked a lot about it on the channel. From what I’ve found and believe that the Alberta migration will possibly slow and not keep the same pace. There still are many coming here and I think we are a very attractive province and city for many to live in and create a great future in. I do believe we won’t see them coming here at the same pace of the past couple of years.
Do you think it will stay the same or slow down?
LOL. Please read
@michellerousseau4277 comment and then my reply to it. You also have a blind spot. Those same people that came are now struggling to find work. Oh and with the big tech lay offs coming soon with AI Advancement, and oil prices going down, it's going to be a big mess.
I think the Biggest risk now is WTI below $70. Remember with 33% inflation since 2015, we’re looking at a quite depressing price range for crude. If it continues for another 6 months, expect significant downtrend in job market and real estate similar to 2015-2017.
I wonder if you have ever done a mean regression on Calgary RE compared to say Victoria, Vancouver, GTA and Montreal? If so, what does that look like?
I’m guessing it would be totally meaningless. Alberta correlates with oil prices, which drives no other market in Canada. Comparing Alberta and Texas would make sense, but they have a bigger and broader economy.
@mkyhou1160 I'm not sure that this correlation is causation. In fact, I don't think it is. This time, it's affordability, immigration, diversification etc...which would also mean the market will be affected cost and availability of capital, immigration and IRR for developers and RE speculators.
The jobs market didn't see an increase bc of employment in oil and gas.
@@jasonpepper658that's because a lot of office jobs were outsourced and they learned to be leaner. In the 'good times' where a moron could make 100k in 2006, there was so much bloat. Ironic that they complained about gov't but in O&G it was insane levels.
They cut a lot, improved efficiency, and ended up with a similar output. That's not coming back. Possibly the outsourced EPC roles as it really hinders communication and ease of dealing with them.
@@blackbirdbeatle I agree and understand. Lauts sees the oilsands similar to a manufacturing cycle as opposed to the large jobs contributor. Which is why the Calgary RE market s NOT linked to oil price.
Hey just wondering if you can label your graphs a bit better to include the property type that would be great. Example 22:22 seems to be for town homes would be great to say it is for town homes :D
love the statistics for the city real estate market. Just being curious, where those data could be found? Thanks
You can download Septembers Calgary Market Report Here: tcgroup.me/z69
3 families from BC moved back after buying house last year in Alberta. They are unable to find job and going back. Their houses are not getting at the price they bought
That is hard. Do you know if they bought resale or built brand new homes? Thank you for sharing this.
They bought it over priced
@@2john149 agreed. I’ve found lately lots of builders really took buyers for a ride on pre sales and it’s hurting them now as they can’t sell for what they paid. Ugh 😑
Maybe line up work before you move to a new province? Use your heads people.
So you’re saying me buying a pre construction 2 bedroom for 320 in February of 2023 was a bad idea?
Thanks for the comment and watching, and truthfully I don't know your situation financially, what your expectations are for this purchase and so much more so I don't know... Do you think it was a bad idea?
@@ChamberlainGroup I purchased it as an investment. I might consider living in it just to try it out but most likely it’ll be a rental property. I live in Toronto with my parents and work a pretty good job.
Great analysis. Based on all the data I think it is fair to expect a decrease in the condo segment if we are back in the balanced environment and the interest rate is still decreasing. Right?
Thanks for the useful content and stats. Following your “seems like a great year to sell your condo” video earlier this year, I believe you had two videos about the subject, I sold my condo after 7 years at a reasonably great price for condos in Calgary. Thanks
I’m glad it was helpful advice. Were you able to work with our team do sell the condo?
@@ChamberlainGroup
Not unfortunately. I connected with your team and had a realtor assigned and reached out to me 2 years ago when I tried to sell the condo but prices where not high enough to convince me to pull the trigger. And although he was a great realtor IMO, he kind of didn’t keep the connection with me. So I ended up selling with another realtor who kept connecting with me over the last two years.
And again, thanks for your advice for selling the condo cause I believe no one else could sell in that building above my price after June.
Look forward to those interviews, good video, good conversations in the comments
More to come! Yes some great convos in the comments here for sure!
My brother just signed a 1 bedroom, 900 sq foot lease in Kits for $2500. $2200 in Calgary for the same quality/ age / parking etc. Vancouver is 10x better than Calgary. Vancouver deserves to be worth more than Calgary rent and real estate. Calgary is over bought and there is soooo much rental inventory that is sitting. We will see rents come down the next 6-12 months and with it prices.
Thanks for sharing. Vancouver is 10x better for those that think Vancouver is 10x better. Not everyone has the same wants and needs in their lives.
The way your content evolves makes me love this channel more and more!!!
Good job Sir! :)
Thank you. I appreciate that! I really keep pushing to keep it relevant and look amazing too. Even though this was shot on my phone and in a hotel room I think it turned out great lol. 😂
WTI bellow $70 and there is conflict in the Mideast and war in Ukraine. OPEC announced prolonged production cuts and oil dropped further. All that means is bad for Calgary real estate. it's real simple
I think the biggest factor is going to be the political landscape in 2025 and whether people continue to move from other big cities
Agree
Affordability index coming from a bank, I am sure, is accurate and not biased.
I know right!?!?
Great video!
Thank you. What was the best part for you?
I love your stats, the way it is packaged and presented. Always happy to hear sentiment of different groups of your clients!
A balanced market is good in some ways because you pay your mortgage down while the market doesn't increase as much, which really helps move up buyers ❤
"When youre holding the hammer, everything looks like a nail"
This guy is obviously shilling real estate because his paycheque relies on it lmao. Overpaid secretaries these guys are.
So kind... thanks for sharing!
We have a Calgary and we have Canada,let's never forget that 😂 We in the west simply the best 👌
Doomed? Sounds concerning.
If we slide further into a TON of inventory coming to our market with little sales then yes... but I don't suspect that to happen. :)
@@ChamberlainGroup I hope that never happens! Your company is going to be okay! Love your opinion and videos!! Be well. Hang in!! 🙂
@@christinecamley thank you. We’re doing great. There are always opportunities to help people transition if you look for them. 🙌
@@ChamberlainGroup Absolutely!! Right on!! 🙂
Hopefully your future videos will be less "PRICES TO THE MOON" vibe. Like you had with your 3 buddies supposedly experts all saying the same thing. LOL.
Thanks for responding here. I think you may have missed the point of that last video, or it wasn't presented well, either way, none of us were saying that prices will go to the moon. More we were discussing how hopeful we were for the future of Calgary in that there has been a huge change in our city, tons of people moved here and in the coming 10 or so years that we hope that the city is able to find it's footing, grow properly and continue to be an amazing city that we have lived in for years. Nothing to do with prices going through the roof... or 'to the moon'. :)
@@ChamberlainGroup I agree with all those points. But when you have a panel of 4 people(including yourself) saying the same thing..its like your listening to media. Everyone is saying the exact same thing. If you are going to bring experts on it would be nice to hear some original/ outside the box opinions not 4 people saying the exact same thing because they are scared to lose deals as realtor.
I love Calgary but why someone would buy 600k real state here if Toronto has reached this level for 2-3 bedrooms townhomes and condo ? Having access to the center of the economy in the country will definitely add value and contribute to growth over the e long term. Calgary is a good city but far away to provide all vancouver and toronto does. For people to start buying again in Calgary it needs to drop 20-40% then it will make sense again. I have seen people saying this line of thinking, therefore, we can kinda predict what is going to happen with sales and inventory here in the short term 👀
Vancouver has nothing except mild weather. Toronto has advantages of a big city, but only if you can afford it. it is not NY that you can earn more, so it is worth expending more.
Nowadays they say they will keep moving here from ontario for the lifestyle, next year i guess they will say, they found gold in the river or something
Gold.... hmm... 👀
many reasons...not all of us want to live in shoe boxes. Id rather a single family home for 600 k here than a 600k condo in toronto eww. Also, people have many reasons for choosing a specific city. I could never see myself living anywhere east of here....I don't like the vibe and the types of people and id be way too far from my entire family. We don't all base our decision on one factor (which im assuming in your case is weather).
@@zahrad1026😂😂😂 for real?
What it means to vote liberal:
Less freedom.
Higher taxes.
Higher inflation.
Less jobs
Less money to take home
Worse standard of living.
Justin Trudeau just wasn't worth it.
Funny enough that's exactly what ucp has done to Alberta
👍
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