Tesla FSD 2020 vs 2024: Version 12 is EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE!
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AI DRIVR TH-cam Video: • There’s a HUMAN inside...
Follow along as I discuss Tesla’s FSD progress since 2020, compare it to where Tesla is today and discuss my estimates for when truly self driving Tesla EVs will be a reality!
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Image & Video Clip Sources:
1. Thumbnail image and various video clips used Courtesy of Tesla, Inc. (where noted in video).
2. Tesla FSD right side thumbnail image and video clips used courtesy of AI DRIVR on TH-cam (where noted in video).
Data Sources:
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teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threa...
www.notateslaapp.com/software...
www.notateslaapp.com/news/199...
teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threa...
www.notateslaapp.com/news/124...
www.tesla.com/support/full-se...
www.notateslaapp.com/news/575...
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Elon Tweet about HW4: / 1695683422667317304
Elon Live Stream: / 1695247110030119054
Tesla Engineering Headquarters in Palo Alto: cleantechnica.com/2023/03/17/...
www.autoevolution.com/news/5-...
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insideevs.com/news/675701/tes...
driveteslacanada.ca/news/elon...
electrek.co/2023/06/29/tesla-...
insideevs.com/news/653609/tes...
www.healthline.com/health/hum...
www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-up...
www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov...
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insideevs.com/news/684002/tes...
NOTE: The content found in this video should NOT be regarded as financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, and this is NOT in any way a recommendation or offer to buy or sell securities. While the information in this video is believed to be accurate at the time of recording, no guarantees are being made about the accuracy of the information presented in the video. As of the recording of this video, I am NOT invested in Tesla stock or securities, nor any other company mentioned in this video. - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
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4:08 this is also true on the highway when passing a semi. The fsd didn’t leave the lane, but leaned in that direction so as to avoid the normal wobble / swerve semis have. It “cheated left” as they say
Most human drivers, myself included, aren't even level five... I think people are not quite grasping just how big of a game changer it will be if FSD can even reach the level of an average human driver. Which is a really low bar.
I know many human drivers that haven't been in an accident for 5 or 10 years, and they drive every single day.
That is Level 5. That is 99.99% competent.
FSD is just a Level 2 assistant. FSD makes mistakes all the time. Nothing like a human driver.
@@DerekDavis213 You pointed out some drivers were great. The point is that MOST drivers suck. It's easy to beat them and tesla is getting really close. I cannot wait.
@@aguyfromnothere If MOST drivers suck, then there would be serious accidents on the road, every day. I drive every day in California, and rarely see accidents.
Any average human could drive across America, no problem. The simple minded beta FSD software cannot drive for 2 hours with *human* *intervention* .
@@aguyfromnothere If MOST drivers suck, their would be accidents all the time. I drive every day and rarely see an accident. How about you?
Price-Cut was Fantastic Strategy after Tesla changed Production Line!
NO-MORE-FREE-FSD-HW FOR REAL DRIVING VIDEO DATA!
From Tesla IR VEHICLE CAPACITY:
* 'Changed the production line to updated model'
Changed to (EV Basic + FSD HW) Line Plus (EV Basic - FSD HW + Basic HW) Line!
* 'COGs per unit improved to an all-time low'
IME, FSD HW = $5K, Basic HW = $1K!
Here Is Why:
FSD-Take-Rate 12%, Rev. $43.5K, COGs $36.5K, FSD HW $5K, Basic HW $1K per EV:
* OLD ($43,500/EV; $12,000/FSD)
Avg. Rev./EV = $44,940 = 0.12 X (43,500 + 12,000) + 0.88 X 43,500
Avg. COGs/EV = $36,500 = 0.12 X 36,500 + 0.88 X 36,500
Avg. Net/EV incl. FSD SW= $8,440 and Avg. MG = 23.12%
* New ($41,500/EV; $8,000/FSD)
Avg. Rev./EV = $42,460 = 0.12 X (41,500 + 8,000) + 0.88 X 41,500
Avg. COGs/EV = $32,980 = 0.12 X 36,500 + 0.88 X (36,500 - FSD HW + Basic HW)
Avg. Net/EV incl. FSD SW = $9,480 and Avg. MG = 28.74%
Model 2 N/A FSD => ~$20K!
Model 3-ECON => Tesla Called, 'More Affordable Models'!
Model 3-FSD = Ready for Robotaxi!
Model Y-ECON => Tesla Called, 'More Affordable Models'!
Model Y-FSD = Ready for Robotaxi!
Model S-ECON => Tesla Called, 'More Affordable Models'!
Model S-FSD = Ready for Robotaxi!
Model X-ECON => Tesla Called, 'More Affordable Models'!
Model X-FSD = Ready for Robotaxi!
IMO, Cybertruck will be deliver FIRST to who subscribe FSD!
ALL-IN-ONE-PRODUCT of AI, Robotics, and Portable Energy is Tesla AGI-Optimus!
I never used the old versions but I’m using it in the free trial right now. I’m very impressed. It’s much better than I thought it was going to be. It feels like maybe it’s around 90% there right now
90% is a big improvement, compared to v11.
But a human driver is 99.99% . Level 5 Full Autonomy is a long ways off!
@@DerekDavis213 not as far as you think given how close it is right now.
@@Meatball2022 But it is NOT close right now.
Every challenging drive more than 30 minutes and FSD *makes* *mistakes* . An intelligent human must intervene.
FSD is so blind, it cannot even see big signs in broad daylight: ROAD CLOSED, DO NOT ENTER. FSD cannot see broken glass in the road. FSD cannot swerve around a pothole.
@@DerekDavis213 it sees signs perfectly well. Even recognizes school zones active vs not. And it will slow down over railroad tracks. But no it won’t avoid glass in the road. Most people won’t either. Nor will they avoid potholes.
The moniker “supervised full self driving” is a better description of it. It works very well. But again - not perfect.
Roundabouts - no problem. Construction - no problem. Mine had issues with weird things that a lot of people had problems with also. But supervised - it’s fine.
It’s much better than I expected. But not perfect. But pretty close for the vast majority of situations.
@@Meatball2022 FSD cannot *act* *on* common road signs that any *high* *school* *kid* could understand.
All this AI and Neural Nets, and FSD wants to drive right thru gates, and ignore DO NOT ENTER and ROAD CLOSED signs. FSD is such a simple minded disappointment!
An FSD that is 99% competent is not good enough! That still means constant human supervision. Nobody paid $12,000 to watch FSD for *every* *second* on the road. Customers were tricked, and duped by Elan Mush.
Everyone is acting like FSD 12 is available to all Tesla users. It's not. Most are on the 2024. 8. X software branch which is not compatible with FSD 12
I’ve never seen your videos but I’m very impressed with you. Thank you
Great content Mr John well delivered valuable information 👍👍👍
Thank you!
I drive on a lot of roads with no lane markings or center lines only, and some sharp turns. V11 was able to handle these, usually, if I set it to 10 under the posted limit (20 for the sharper turns). On unmarked roads cresting a hill, it tended to center in the road which was iffy (two lane road, but only if neither is particularly wide, so if someone was on the blind side of the slope, head on collision). V12 places itself more safely there, but doesn't grasp "soft shoulders" and tried to use them because it is less fanatical about centering on curves (V11 never went onto the shoulder, V12 did twice in my one test drive). V12 also rode on the yellow (rumble strip confirmed it) on a rural highway even though there were several feet of road to the right that it could use (and white lines to prove it).
More smooth on the interstate, but less safe, bordering on reckless at times, off it. Totally stupid in town (goes for the right turn lane instead of the center through lane at a congested intersection, V11 did the right thing). The loss of being able to toggle TACC only for portions of a drive is also as loss as V11 and V12 handle that town poorly (in different spots), but the cops are actively looking for speeders and it'd be nice to be able to keep a steady 25 instead of having to keep looking down to verify my speed.
What does the FSD system do when an emergency vehicle approaches with its lights and/or siren on? The law (at least in Canada) says you must pull over and stop to let the emergency vehicle pass when it approaches from the rear, or from the front on a road without a median.
What if an emergency vehicle starts to turn left in front of you? Does the FSD yield?
Also (in Alberta) we are required to move over to the far lane and slow down when passing emergency vehicles or road works.
If I buy a used 2020 Model 3 with FSD, will the FSD still be as capable as FSD in a 2024 Model 3?
It is about the speed of Tesla progress, but it is also about the lack of much progress by others. Since October 2020 when Tesla FSD Beta first went out to a few testers, Tesla has made enormous progress. Meanwhile, Waymo became able to make unprotected lefts and can now drive on freeways, and expanded its service areas in Phoenix and SF and added a couple cities.
Great detailed layout of the levels, thanks. I'll consider the system to be completely unsupervised when it no longer gives up and requires the driver to take control. I would want the "nag" to remain but be much less sensitive to temporary inattention such as searching for a waypoint, adjusting the climate controls or sound system. If I look sleepy or actually close my eyes for very long then a warning would be appropriate.
"it took the perfect moment to pull out." That's was she said. 😂
Nice clear precise reviews 😊 l prefer to drive 🚗 😅
I have a Tesla Model X 2022 with FSD but am still nervous about using it. So many horror stories out there. But I hope to get over it one day soon.
The horror stories are not 'stories' , they are true. Today, FSD v12.3.5 still needs human help on every *challenging* drive. Supervision is mandatory.
@@DerekDavis213Yes, hundreds of fatalities caused by FSD, truly horrific stuff 😆
@@thordang5124 No fatalities cause by FSD, because that simple minded beta software is *100* *percent* supervised by a human, at all times.
Let's see how FSD v12 would do on the road today ALONE. It would be a cuffing disaster!
@@DerekDavis213 Very good point.
EV John ✔️🖖🌎 Tesla is inching up to level 5 it won't be too long went they finally nail it!😊
Inching is the right adjective. And they have 20 feet of distance to cover.
@@DerekDavis213Than the question would be how quickly those inches are taken consecutively. They seem to be ramping up compute, data collection and training etc so that they will be able to take those inch steps quite quickly. Might help cover those 20 feet relatively quick than as well.
@@thotmorgana 90 days so far for FSD v12, and today it still makes all kinds of obvious mistakes. It is blind to things right in front of its face! Gates, DO NOT ENTER signs, water pooling in the Lane, broken glass on the road. I could go on and on.
You just showed me video I have seen….
That video is a not the latest version. It is even bette now. 😀😀😀 🕉️🕉️🕉️
8/8-2024 🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖
Click click 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Inexplicably frequent exits from FSD makes for a terrible experience, and you'll realize that I'm alive and not suffering from a car accident.
First
Second 😢
@stevedrawdy2532 Second place is first loser, so you're still first 😌
Fsd wont be full self drive until v15. That is at least 10 years away. All the tesla fanboys dont like this fact.
Agreed. The very latest v12 update is still very primitive, and makes lots of mistakes.
Lol. You know how much their compute has increased this year? Thought not. They have improved more in the past 12 months using 100% nural nets than the past 6 years. Your comment won't age well. But you aren't alone, everyone laughs at Elon with every one of his products, until he (always) makes them work.
@@sdpryce They have improved so much in the last 12 months because they *trashed* 1000's of engineering man hours of effort that went into FSD v11.
Elan spent $1 billion on NVidia hardware, and even *today* FSD still makes obvious mistakes on any challenging drive. What a joke.
brother they release a new version each year, it will be 3 years away???
@@DerekDavis213 no shit it makes mistakes, technology dosent just magically progress by making no mistakes lmfao.
Our son owns a Cadillac and every time I get to drive it I just love that 360-degree birdseye view of the car
when parking.
Is it too much trouble for Elon to do the same? a Real view, not a cartoon view.
I thought Tesla's had this already?
@@runningman5871 as a highly inaccurate cartoon - it does not show curbs since the cameras don't look down that far. Cadillac shows real images - you see what the cameras see.
Elon's number one priority is to *cut* *costs* .
That is why Ultrasonic sensors are gone. That is why the Turn Signal Stalk is gone. That is why Tesla has a glass roof that is *glued* in position. That is cheaper than a metal roof on the car.
@@DerekDavis213 Good but Elon did not save $25,000 in 2 years.
Maybe $100?
The rest is sheer panic selling his bloated inventory.
Elon needs to close and sell off a Gigafactory.
@@noleftturns Tesla needs a new chief, a new CEO. Time for Elon to get sacked. To get the boot.
Tesla will never get to level 5, it’s impossible
Why?
GO bet against Elon. Short TSLA
‼️8 /8-2024 = Robotaxi 🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖
8/8-2024 = Robotaxi 🚖🚖🚖🚖🚖
Mark, many experts agrees with you.
8 years ago, Elon said FSD would drive 2800 miles across America, automatically. Today, that is almost comical. FSD cannot drive for 30 minutes on a challenging route without *human* *intervention* .