This is a great interview, the guest is really generous with his knowledge and candor, describing what he does and why and how he thinks about what other people do and say. He gives a great perspective on the difference between investing (for instance dollar cost average into indexes over your earning lifespan) and trading (I think TSLA is a sell here). Investing is pretty easy because you should just do the cheap, dumb, long term thing and you will be handsomely rewarded. Trading is interesting because as the guest points out, 95% of professional money managers do not beat the indexes, they are all losers. Even the guest doesn't beat the indexes but he offers his clients something that's correlated differently and therefore valuable (see Jim Chanos). TH-cam seems to be a lot more interested in trading than in investing and I think the amateur investor gets a great reality check watching this interview. Take it from the man.
I needed this podcast to stay outside of an echo chamber. I'm still in team bearish and want more confirmation before I go back in. So what I heard was that Jason is trading using 'hype analysis.' I gotta respect the man because he has $$$$, and the contrariness view will be right 50% of the time; good listen
Glad to hear. I agree that most of my interviews and similar channels have been bearish while markets continue to go up. Great to get a full view of all opinions throughout the markets.
Jason makes me think of that 2021 meme with the guy comforting the crying kid on the bench. The caption was “I predicted we’d see high inflation this year.” “Wow, how much did you make?” “I bought Gold!”
Just watch the trend - and decide, which parts are sustainable and will keep on going - and which parts are not sustainable. For example: A) what is the trend for the middle class? do they have more and more and a better life from one decade to the next since WW2? B) how is the consumption & demand financed? is allowing debt without real liabilities (wooden houses in a land that has more or less no limits to declare new land available for homes - I mean: the USA is not Monaco) ... will this keep on going forever? C) is the complete world order about to change - and will the USA have the same position in the new order and will the USD survive this transition? ... based on the outcome of these questions you can decide, if and into which stocks it might make sense to invest. ... but: the demand for the US-stocks is driven a lot because of certain situations that do have nothing to do with the outlook and the situation of the company, but with external, specific US factors... (pension funds and stupidity of the masses - and for both: pension funds and stupid masses the future looks not so well, I#d say when I go through A, B, C above ...)
Regarding a recession, 'I have yet to see ANY kinda of proof of that'. The guests at Wealthion are able to see proof of recession. To not see ANY proof of a recession a this point, is blindness. Yield curve inversion and a contracting money supply should be raising red flags.
@@jonjohn3120 The question was "NOW' not 8 months ago. 8 months ago, the Federal Reserve hadn't withdrawn *$1 Trillion* in liquidity out of the markets. But the liquidity drawn down happened in June 2023 & that liquidity drawdown doesn't help the markets stability. Also, since the 8 months ago, 4 US Banks and Credit Suisse went bankrupt. The system is NOT stronger now vs. than 8 months ago.
@@BV-fr8bf Stopped watching Wealthion in March cuz that channel has been a portfolio killer in 2023. It’s a shame that all those “smart” people have been so incredibly wrong because they are stuck in 2022 thinking and have COMPLETELY missed it. Weak banks going going bankrupt makes the system stronger. Survival of the fittest.
How high (or low) do you think the S&P500 and other markets will go this year?
Dude, you've got one of the best channels out there. Keep putting on these good guests, and good lines of questioning. You'll be big.
Thanks so much, Appreciate the kind words and support.
Great interview. Jason's clarity of process is inspiring.
Thanks Paul!
AMAZING interview! This is the stuff. Reminds me a little bit of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's attitude towards traders.
Thanks so much! Agreed, both no nonsense type of people!
This is a great interview, the guest is really generous with his knowledge and candor, describing what he does and why and how he thinks about what other people do and say.
He gives a great perspective on the difference between investing (for instance dollar cost average into indexes over your earning lifespan) and trading (I think TSLA is a sell here). Investing is pretty easy because you should just do the cheap, dumb, long term thing and you will be handsomely rewarded. Trading is interesting because as the guest points out, 95% of professional money managers do not beat the indexes, they are all losers. Even the guest doesn't beat the indexes but he offers his clients something that's correlated differently and therefore valuable (see Jim Chanos). TH-cam seems to be a lot more interested in trading than in investing and I think the amateur investor gets a great reality check watching this interview. Take it from the man.
I needed this podcast to stay outside of an echo chamber. I'm still in team bearish and want more confirmation before I go back in. So what I heard was that Jason is trading using 'hype analysis.' I gotta respect the man because he has $$$$, and the contrariness view will be right 50% of the time; good listen
Glad to hear. I agree that most of my interviews and similar channels have been bearish while markets continue to go up. Great to get a full view of all opinions throughout the markets.
Jason makes me think of that 2021 meme with the guy comforting the crying kid on the bench.
The caption was “I predicted we’d see high inflation this year.” “Wow, how much did you make?” “I bought Gold!”
🤣 true
The Ultimate Contrarian⚡️
always an opportunity to trade against the crowd
Just watch the trend - and decide, which parts are sustainable and will keep on going - and which parts are not sustainable.
For example:
A) what is the trend for the middle class? do they have more and more and a better life from one decade to the next since WW2?
B) how is the consumption & demand financed? is allowing debt without real liabilities (wooden houses in a land that has more or less no limits to declare new land available for homes - I mean: the USA is not Monaco) ... will this keep on going forever?
C) is the complete world order about to change - and will the USA have the same position in the new order and will the USD survive this transition?
... based on the outcome of these questions you can decide, if and into which stocks it might make sense to invest.
... but: the demand for the US-stocks is driven a lot because of certain situations that do have nothing to do with the outlook and the situation of the company, but with external, specific US factors... (pension funds and stupidity of the masses - and for both: pension funds and stupid masses the future looks not so well, I#d say when I go through A, B, C above ...)
Great points, cheers for sharing
David Hunter called it!
He did! and people called him crazy...
Regarding a recession, 'I have yet to see ANY kinda of proof of that'. The guests at Wealthion are able to see proof of recession. To not see ANY proof of a recession a this point, is blindness. Yield curve inversion and a contracting money supply should be raising red flags.
yes those flags were raised 8 months ago. hows it going?
@@jonjohn3120 The question was "NOW' not 8 months ago. 8 months ago, the Federal Reserve hadn't withdrawn *$1 Trillion* in liquidity out of the markets. But the liquidity drawn down happened in June 2023 & that liquidity drawdown doesn't help the markets stability. Also, since the 8 months ago, 4 US Banks and Credit Suisse went bankrupt. The system is NOT stronger now vs. than 8 months ago.
@@BV-fr8bf Stopped watching Wealthion in March cuz that channel has been a portfolio killer in 2023. It’s a shame that all those “smart” people have been so incredibly wrong because they are stuck in 2022 thinking and have COMPLETELY missed it. Weak banks going going bankrupt makes the system stronger. Survival of the fittest.
It s old???
On holiday so pre-recorded interview a few days ago. The insights still seem to be valid!
If you want to make a living trading, listen to Jason Shapiro
Agreed!