Good idea in principle, was going to adopt this using EWS.Just a couple of flaws IMO. First one is you have no guarantee of getting your bet matched at the value odds, and second only pays 1/2/3 places whereas some of the value will come from the additional extra places being offered by some bookies. Might come in really handy for users who are heavily stake restricted though and have no other option I guess.
From what I understand, this firstly eliminates the need for laying and the liability for earning maybe 30p max per vets. Value betting is mathematically calculated so that over the long run you profit and will profit more than you would laying the off arb. I haven't tried it but there must be something to it as its what the bookies target most when looking to gub.
@profitboss Very interesting! How many bets have you backtested this strategy with? My first thought about this strategy is that odds drifting might cause a problem. I do know that odds drifting on my value bets isn't a problem since they drift equally in favor as they can drift against me. Since 100% of my bets are placed I'm in the green either way. However, when you're talking about bringing the human element into this equation my fear is that the value bets that drift in favor won't get placed and the odds that drift against you always will get placed. So what's your average return per bet doing this and does that return correspond to the initial value that you calculated with you first placed the bet?
It’s not really a question of stats. The bookies make money by offering a slightly lower price than the actual chance. Some days the get absolutely rinsed, but long term they will always be up. It’s a statistical certainty. If you are taking true value then you are doing what the bookie does, hence you must win long term
Hi, so is odds monkey the the cheapest software I can use for value bets. I have been doing it manually for about 4 weeks but I'm only finding say 5 to 10 a day on horses so I need help.
If you back a horse at odds of 2.0 perhaps 3 hrs before the race and it’s exchange price is 1.95, you might think you are getting value, however the price drifts to 3.0 by the event start time meaning you are getting very bad value. How do you counter this?
Yes I would be interested to know that as well. The odds represent the chance of that event to happen at that moment in time so that can change every minute. I guess the true value is just before the off.
Exchanges are using Sow to put limits on people. You can be in a healthy profit but because your salary is £30k you are limited to 500 per month deposit for example
Good idea in principle, was going to adopt this using EWS.Just a couple of flaws IMO. First one is you have no guarantee of getting your bet matched at the value odds, and second only pays 1/2/3 places whereas some of the value will come from the additional extra places being offered by some bookies. Might come in really handy for users who are heavily stake restricted though and have no other option I guess.
If you were getting an arb through bet-connect, why would you not go into smarkets and lay it as well? Then surely you're guaranteed a profit?
I was thinking this too
From what I understand, this firstly eliminates the need for laying and the liability for earning maybe 30p max per vets. Value betting is mathematically calculated so that over the long run you profit and will profit more than you would laying the off arb. I haven't tried it but there must be something to it as its what the bookies target most when looking to gub.
Because laying is giving away value, also taking up more of your bankroll than needed. Use the money you would use to pay to place more value bets
@profitboss Very interesting! How many bets have you backtested this strategy with? My first thought about this strategy is that odds drifting might cause a problem. I do know that odds drifting on my value bets isn't a problem since they drift equally in favor as they can drift against me. Since 100% of my bets are placed I'm in the green either way. However, when you're talking about bringing the human element into this equation my fear is that the value bets that drift in favor won't get placed and the odds that drift against you always will get placed. So what's your average return per bet doing this and does that return correspond to the initial value that you calculated with you first placed the bet?
When value betting and using a service is there a strategy for selecting bets offered or is it just a case of doing MANY bets?
Do you have any stats to back up your claim that value betting will be profitable in the long run?
It’s not really a question of stats. The bookies make money by offering a slightly lower price than the actual chance. Some days the get absolutely rinsed, but long term they will always be up. It’s a statistical certainty. If you are taking true value then you are doing what the bookie does, hence you must win long term
Hi, so is odds monkey the the cheapest software I can use for value bets. I have been doing it manually for about 4 weeks but I'm only finding say 5 to 10 a day on horses so I need help.
If you back a horse at odds of 2.0 perhaps 3 hrs before the race and it’s exchange price is 1.95, you might think you are getting value, however the price drifts to 3.0 by the event start time meaning you are getting very bad value. How do you counter this?
Yes I would be interested to know that as well.
The odds represent the chance of that event to happen at that moment in time so that can change every minute. I guess the true value is just before the off.
@@szuperpozicio The true value is unknown. But odds drift is one reason that this strategy is a non-starter (pun not intended)
You would normally do that right before start of a race.
There also bog if you get a difter.
What about when odds drift?
would an exchange have a reason to ban anyone?
Not really. They make their profit from the fees.
Exchanges are using Sow to put limits on people. You can be in a healthy profit but because your salary is £30k you are limited to 500 per month deposit for example
@@ConorSwanston1991 Yeah, Matchbook restricted me to £100 a month because of that..