I love these videos and have been watching for over a year now. Please never burn yourself out. You're a gem in the rough world of information on this platform. stay sane
I actually like that he uses bland visuals and minimal audio (almost only his voice with little alteration or additional effects), it cuts down on the amount of time he has to spend on each video which goes a long way to fighting burnout
2:24 I lived at the bottom-right corner of this place for my first 10 years after birth (it looked very different before 2008). Then I moved to close to 742 factory, which was later called Hua Jing 华晶 and I regularly went through the road in front of its headquarters 😃. The headquarters were a group of Soviet Russian style building blocks with brick-red roofs inside the city. The photo you showed at 1:37 was the fab outside the city in the 1990s. At the time of setting up this fab, 742 was already renamed into Hua Jing.
The amount of negative comments was attributed to China's illegal activities of acquiring Western technology transfers. Western industries who invested in Mainland China were required to meet certain conditions. Usually, those conditions allowed compromise in order to do business in China. We all know China has good intentions to acquire Western intellectual properties...How about a taste of your own medicines.
Yea, they need to multiply their investment manyfold and start lower in the tech chain instead of investing at the top. Invest in precision manufacturing tech, lasers, chemicals and materials, so that they have the technology to build on. You can't build a lithography machine if you can't make precision motors, etc. so you are doomed to failure. Taiwan has over 8,000 companies in the semiconductor supply industry. You are not going to catch up by investing in a few of the big status quo companies you already have. They would go bankrupt if they suddenly decided to stop using their established suppliers and have zero incentive to share any tech they develop such as metrology etc. This leads to every company having to reinvent the wheel and eats up the investment with little return spreading into the industry. I actually saw a video about a CNC machining company in China which built an "underground" factory and took several years to start at the bottom of the tech stack so that they could match western competitors. This is how you would need to go about building a semiconductor industry, but at a much larger scale. Each company focusing on a piece of the puzzle, and becoming suppliers for the next level up. You can have all the mega fabs in the world, but if you lack the software to design chips, you are not making anything. If each fab had to build their own software stack you are wasting billions of dollars instead of having 1-2 companies become the supplier for all of them.
@@excitedbox5705 Semiconductor design software is a tough market as well. As it stands, you can pirate a lot of the design software, and the big three rely on their high margin customers which are hard to sway. There is room for tools that improve flow control, integrate ML widgets, attempt analog APR, etc, but starting from scratch would leave many Chinese designers technically stranded from the outside ADE world unless their tools improved well past the existing ones.
@@excitedbox5705 with the Ungodly amounts of Money they have already spent, to the tune of hundreds of Billions. They could have just as easily bought the necessary people to make an euv machine. Instead they went local. Threw the money on the streets of China looking for Chinese who could build them an EUV. Nuts. How much does an engineer at ASML or Cymer make in their life time. Its definitely not a 100 million dollars. Hopefully they realized this sooner rather than later.
@@excitedbox5705 That aerospace chap looks like a good choice. Building a commercial passenger jet from scratch is on the same level as a modern fab I reckon.
On a different note, i saw in another video from another channel, that the reason for the bankruptcies were, at least some of them, that the involved companies were using the money granted to them to invest it on real state, when the market crashed, so did they.
As always, you delivered the most impressively researched, analysed, and articulate presentation of a very complex subject. Here I am wild awake at 1am and hoping the video would be so dull to put me asleep, only to no avail. 😂
Its a learning experience for China and semiconductor manufacturing is a high investment gamble and highly competitive industry. It needs lots of money and talent, both of which China can count on. It also needs roadmaps, discipline and endurance as this is a marathon rather than a short race and the winner collects all. I would love to see u dissect the current US lead 4 Chips initiative and also their sanctions on China's semiconductor that not only focuses on equipment, but on high-end chips and EDA software tools, lastly on their 50 billion subsidies to promote wafer fabs in the US.
The CCP only steals technology. It has never researched and developed anything in the past 70 years. It doesn’t have the talent or experience to ever manufacture any advanced chips.
@@Spit823 - Yah so who invented paper and who invented gun powder.. get your head out of your butt. This are just two of the inventions by the Chinese and there are lots more.
@@albertwong1919 Yeah China has done great things in the past. But since the communist party became the dictators of China nothing but death and tyranny and poverty has been accomplished. The only thing to come out of china in the past few years is the Covid Pandemic.
@@Spit823 - The whole world knows how China uplifted ~700million people out of poverty, even India wants to emulate how China did it and their FM talked about it. Have u been living under a rock? No country in the world has achieve what China did since the start of the human civilization and yet all u know is bad mouthing a country and its people. Pls go look at the mirror and see yourself for what u are.
@@albertwong1919 no… The CCP killed 80 million people with a famine they caused. And only by opening up to the west and letting foreign investment come in did people get lifted out of poverty. China didn’t do anything really except subjugate it’s own people and persecute minority groups. I understand you’ve probably been brainwashed by the CCP since you were little so I don’t expect you to see my point.
The biggest error is that China assumed the 2025 initiative would lead to key overseas companies into investing in China's vision by providing funds and IP. This did not happen for three reasons: 1. Deteriorating foreign relations with the key western countries, esp the US , tighter export controls soon followed. 2. China's patriotic movement to be eventually self-sufficient. This is scary to foreign companies. 3. The majority of the semiconductor consumption is done through manufacturing facilities of foreign companies in China, China have NO say over what IC to use. In any case, many of these companies have relocated part of their manufacturing facilities to other Asian countries. In short, the carrots and sticks that China have had are simply not good enough
They never paid off investments. Thousands of companies and individual investors have been waiting since the 50's to the 90's to get paid for their successful investments yet people still keep giving them money it's absurd. They now say they will let their companies be audited and give payments due. It's a lie. they will play nice until the bill comes due. then they will cry victim as all chinese companies are pulled from the stock market. The CCP only have one skill one plan one reaction to everything.
I'm not a expert in this field, but my anecdotal experience by talking to people from China, they never expect wester companies to help them out. They are fully convinced they can do this by themselves. The level of self confidence is overwhelming
I'm a bit late to the party, but I very much appreciate your in-depth research, knowledge and no-frills style of imparting it to your audience. Thanks a lot!
Great insight. Those "hedge fund" type guys are not there to cultivate the industry but to make monies from acquiring technologies (which failed) from the supply chain. I don't think any one those six people are semiconductor industry experts.
Yeah to add to other comments saying this, i really appreciate your work ansld research and all your topics. You keep it detailed, interesting and with a good voice and pace. All it comes together as great videos about things i would never dream of finding out myself but have a huge interest in
I wonder if there will be stricter regulations on IC sales as they become a larger part of the economy. I've been pretty shy about any IC shipping from china as they rarely test in tolerance. Especially components like high performance MOSFETS, operational amplifiers and voltage regulators. With tests suggesting that a chip labeled like a lt1084 voltage regulator actually being an lm317 that has been re etched. If they had the internal structures to combat the practice, there's a lot a value in sinosourced integrated circuits.
Love this particular video. Fair, precise, condensed with reliable/sensible facts and figures. No bias, defamation (especially on China) etc. A lot of other "private" videos come from China (via VPN?) spreads mostly misleading, fabricated or simply dreadful lies on Chinese semiconductor technical advances. Circulating falsified hopes and misinformation bears serious responsibilites but there's no practical ways to weed them out. Semiconductor development is ultra complicated, needs years of joint efforts/genius/resources/prohibitive finances to beat countless hurdles, tricks and traps.
God favors hard working people and luck will find them. I never seen someone live through life living without consequences, if a person is bad, will do bad things, have bad environment, and create bad environments, bad consequences and bad things. But if work, energy, and therefore our efforts is put forth towards a better future, God favors this.
How is the important of chips counted, when they are just put on boards and exported again? E.g. with the Apple A15 put in Iphones or Nvidia GPUs out in graphic cards?
wow this is interesting for me, one thing that popped into my brain though, how does this square with the fact that I've heard multiple times in the past that china has the monopoly on rare earth elements that are essential for semiconductor industry as a whole? did they fail to take advantage from that or what? I thought with such important advantage, they would have an easier way to gain leadership on the industry...
No such advantage. It's just China had more mines already developed but other countries can open up their reserves. Not to mention such blatant threat to globalization will lead to others quickly looking for alternatives.
Hi Jon i have only recently fallen into the habit of whatching your channel starting i am what you call alow level atari generation geek but your vids are absorbing and a very wide area of intrest also not being even a vistor to your part of the world still find myself intrested in the content recently i watched a vid you made about a FAB in north east England wich was a lot better than what local journalisum came up with i was naively wondering if you could express any insights into the Newport fab in Wales my geographic area i.e. is it a valid security risk for the U.K would make my day if i even got a reply many thanks Gareth
Thank you for putting together this video on one very important aspect of the Made in China 2025 policy. I know that your specialist area of expertise is semiconductors, but it would be interesting to learn more about how things are progressing with the other nine strategic industries named. This would give much-neede context to the overall success or failure of these policy goals. With regard to your comments on China Tobacco, that company is well worth a video in itself. Did you, for example, realise that Li Keqiang’s younger brother, Li Keming, was a vice director at the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration from 2003 to 2015, and it has been suggested that one of the main reasons that China was unwilling to implement smoking bans, because it would have directly impacted the wealth being generated for the Li family, despite the move likely saving millions of ordinary lives? The tobacco monopoly wields extraordinary power because it controls 98 percent of China’s vast cigarette market and provides an estimated 10 percent of government revenue. This is almost as amazing as Kweizhou Moutai, which now has a valuation greater than much more well known multi-nationals such as Exxon and Walmart. Perhaps this is where much of the money that Guiyang is investing in Big Data is coming from... Li was immediately appointed chairman of a supervisory committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, a ministry-level body that directly oversees 112 central government industrial and service conglomerates, so plenty of other money making opportunities there. Anyway, thanks again for another interesting and insightful video. Keep up the great work.
@@the80386 most of the times actually As history of china has already proven. When china was still a developing third world country smaller than Britain, it copied everything. Copying has helped them catch up to the competition, and surpass many. Now china in many sectors develop their own unique products. Smartphones for example. China copies products in order to catch up to the competition, but eventually, they figure out creative ways to improve and grow from there. This has always been a Chinese strategy of being self sufficient and self reliant. It has proven to work for china And I am fairly certain it will work out very well when it comes to chip manufacturing. Only a matter of time till china manage to create their own advanced chips.
I am quite curious about you as a person, how do you read all these tons of information and how is your process to prepare them in this nead clean way, i am very impressed :-) Maybe you can do a self intoduction video 🙂
I suspect a small team of researchers help source information. He may have a research background too, perhaps a PhD in a relevant field and has paid subscription to various science journals.
10:00 oh now something seem to make sense for me, some time ago China seemed to have some problems with vw, maybe they startedto implement this process, maybe not, but could make sense Also, I really like your work, keep it up!
Great and very informative video. However, I am confused by something: The charts showing the exports, imports, and size of China’s IC market and local production of IC’s, starting at 14:07, seem to be inconsistent. Specifically, the COMTRADE and IC Insights numbers seem to contradict each other by a factor of at least two. I realize they are not measuring the exact same thing, but that makes the numbers even worse, actually. How can Chinese exports of IC’s be several times higher than Chinese production of IC’s, for example?
Many manufacturers use China as a final assembly point. Manufacture actual chips elsewhere, solder them on the board in China, export the actual end product which is easily several times more valuable than the chip itself. This will likely account for at least some of the discrepancy.
@15:05 He states that only about 40% of exported chips are produced by Chinese headquartered companies (i.e. about 60% of exported chips are produced in China fabs but by companies that create the chip design that are based outside of China). I don’t know if that helps explain the discrepancy you mention.
@@luckyo11 seems like China can also prioritize the Chinese market to chips made or assemble in China. I am sure they can assemble the chips elsewhere. But without the Chinese market you don't need to make more chips. That means the other half of the world I assume Europe, Japan and five eyes have to pay much more to buy US chips.
@Asianometry: Sorry, regarding the video title "The Flawed Assumptions Behind China's Big Semiconductor Fund" (title as of 20220910), what were the Flawed Assumptions again? $$ is not enough?
Two things are missing in this analysis. - Long term if money are thrown constantly into some business it attracts talents. Sooner or later some companies will make their names if... - Americas embargo is huge boon for Chines manufacturers as Chinese companies preferred western products and Chinese new comers could not find market... until now.
Well would you be surprised if I told you China isn't ANYWHERE European nations ???? ASML alone needed decades of cooperation with universities and nearby European neighbors and US company to get where they are! And they still are pumping in BILLIONS in R&D to advance further! China simply doesn't have that particular European ecosystem of shared cooperation, nor is Chinese academic output (needed for R&D in this industry) nearly as excellent as their European competitors. China' academic output is sloppy, not nearly as inquisitive and doesn't force innovation.
@@abyyy490 I am saying the whole Chinese academic institutions are decades behind their Western counterparts, nor do they have this INTERNATIONAL mentality where you need to cooperate to come to a better end goal. China punishes innovation, with their culture by not tolerating academics/ professionals to QUESTION current practices and QUESTION current process work flows.
What hilarious about the high tech sector is that it costs so much time and money to develop and perfect. Only to eventually fall prey to clear paradigm shifts like when transistors came into being. New theories in computing like quantum Logic gates, actual quantum entanglement in circuits, crystalline 3d data storage with no practical limits to read/write speeds, etc etc. Would make current computing hardware look like vacuum tubes overnight. That’s why only a flexible industrial base that isn’t married to some sort of long term government plan will always win out.
Quantum computers still have a long way to go. Even if they are successfully commercialized, it’s unlikely that they’ll replace all other forms of computers, especially classical von Neumann architecture. Yes, we are indeed seeing a plethora of emerging new domain specific architectures, but they are not completely de novo approaches.
So if you love what you do and you're good at it, they will FORCE YOU into a managment position and make you believe it's a "promotion". Otherwise that was your GOAL to begin with and you get REWARDED for being ruthless and corrupt. It's that the lesson our societies are teaching us? All hail the Almighty Dollar!
You should make a video on the latest restrictions that Biden has imposed on Chinese semiconductor imports of US tech/equipment. I would love to listen to your view on how it will effect the industry.
"open technical standards are in the spirit of open source code, silicon valley tech and libertarian-minded individuals" this sentence popped out at me and i dont really understand what you mean by it, it seems a kind of non-sequitor although im sure its not. can you explain?
It’s not about what happens year to year. It’s all about pursuing the right direction and looking to the next decades ...China is well behind the USA but will narrow the gap over time if done right and tons of luck
China has several highly capable companies, perhaps Huawei is most notable. But, when the company is design only products and production are limited by any deals with a fab.
cant China be manufacturing RISC-V chips instead? theyre an open standard and the widespread adoption of it on chinese mobile phones would accelerate their adoption?
All the software compatibility issue have to be solved as well. So far I've seen several major chinese software companies are porting their products to support RISC-V but it will take some time to achieve full adoption.
@@leezhieng yup, as all new instruction standards do, its gonna take time to sort out the bugs. Hopefully we see a competitive chip market in the future, with better software abstraction so it doesn't affect the end consumer.
this is a great channel but there are also a few misinformations, 1) the 7n equivalent of SMIC is N+1, N+2 is their 5nm equivalent which is likely not in production ... yet, 2) SMEE did already shipped the supposed 5nm capable 28nm DUV machine in 2021, they kept a low profile for many reasons.
GF Fab10 supposed to open in China. The building was completed, Hired foreign Managers and Engineers and some tools were installed. But suddenly stop for unknown reason. Just make a wild guess why.
I think the contribution of this channel calls for scrutiny as it over states issues on China and other countries but is not aware or its deliberate misinformation on US corruption incidents such as the Congress Speaker and or present President who employ their children in facilitating business using state transport and facilities. All big projects will always have overflows and such cases are the rationale to have a supervisory system. One think both nations are doing in over production will downgrade this industry.
China knows that its greatest economic gains come from mature nodes which is less glamorous, but within the real realm of producing profits and results. The cutting edge like TSMC has stumbled a bit as companies like Apple pulled back their efforts to use 3nm chips from TSMC to use 5nm node chips. TSMC looks like it took two steps back and one step forward by focusing some attention on mature nodes recently. It's US efforts sound like they could fail. Having said that, most small companies entering a new sector of growth, fail for a lots of reason, mostly for lack of funds to meet their ambitions. Even mundane sectors have failures. Most people are not interested in these failures but are occupied with trying to find the successes. That is true for the semiconductor sector. I personally think that China's learning curve is coming up fast now and faster in the future as it gains more experience and the technology shifts to newer factors that come into play where China is at the same starting line as the west. In silicon, it is playing catch up. Newer substrates, newer light wave technologies could change the whole dimension of semiconductors but that remains to be seen. Your videos are an excellent example of definitive facts and information for those of us interested in technology, especially in the China vs US competition.
I heard Morris Chang has finally come around to understanding the future is mainland China. I think they are going to build a new fab there or something. It's basically an admission the Arizona project is a failure. The firm got burnt via the subsidy game getting political.
Looks like stumbling along with failures along the way, but still toward the inevitable destination. Those who try will eventually succeed. Their production has increased rapidly, but so has demand.
This isn't clear from the presentation. The end charts tell a slightly different story than the one you are painting. In other words, domestic consumption is currently outpacing domestic production, especially in high-in-demand product categories.
us lock-out efforts overt or covert....reminds me of the days of DVD-stds --> no one uses DVDs today. Open-stds = motivated inventors ...these are the guys to foster. The founder of China's space program was badly mistreated by the us-officials when he returned home he was highly motivated usa is motivating others in the world to do better hope they do so.
3:00 " *controllable* " semiconductor industry "not sure the industry *controls* itself" This is the crux of the issue 19:15 *controllable* supply chain.... will only repeat the fundamental mistake
@@TSRHelios not "surpassed¨ , dumping. And those where not "sanctions", they are imposed by the World Trade Organization. But keep trying to sell the "sanctions bad" line... Cuba has milked that for decades
Don't think Mainland China will catch up in the short term. EUV lithography, development started in 1985, EUV LLC was formed in 1997, it's 2011 before ASML NXE:3100 is ready, so 26 years from EUV research to 1st EUV Lithography machine. In the medium/long term, it's anybody's guess, as countries recognized the strategic importance of semiconductors and new players are trying to enter the game, like India (whose media proclaim it's a superpower in 2020 and Modi received the UNESCO Best PM Award). China has the second-mover advantage, but so does other players/countries looking to enter the space.
China is catching up very fast.. Time is not linear..it is harder to invent the wheel than reinvent it. However..you forgot that these foreign players are actually earning money from chips , lithography etc.. This is what the West is not revealing. For every Huawei phone..for example..Taiwan earns from Chips sales..US earns from apps. Not all profits go to China. So..if China simply advance everything to self-sufficiency..then other countries won't collaborate with China and only be direct competition. For all we know.. China already has the technologies..but just not mass producing it.. more like keeping it all in pace.
dude the india thing is just a meme. people need to stop taking it seriousl;y. china is serious competitor because its the second largest economy and arch enemy of america. big difference
@@rodrozil6544 Thats why I said China have second-mover advantage. Because its second, it already knows what technologies work, it can concentrate in those area, instead of trailblazer that need to fund 10 different avenues before a path opens up.
Catch up doesn't necessarily mean catching up in EUV lithography. China didn't catch up to Germany and Japan in car making by beating them in internal combustion engine technology. It leapfrogged by betting on EVs instead. There will be a next big thing after EUV, and China will have a much better chance to take the lead in the next generation of semiconductor technologies.
Semiconductor is a strategic assets. China has no choice but to go head in to develop their own semiconductor technologies at every level because the west, especially America will not allow China access to these advanced technologies. There have been many naysayers in the past that China can never achieve certain technical know how and they have been proven wrong. There is nothing physically stopping China from getting those tech and they certainly have the money, talent and baseline to develop them. The only thing they don't have is the luxury of time and they are likely going to be always one gen behind the west for the bear future. China has no choice but to develop this. A large component of their defense is going to be AI powered spy satellites which will be vital to completing the kill chain for their long range antiship ballistic missiles. Now that America is blocking China from acquiring AI accelerated chips from Nvidia, it is a matter of national security of utmost urgency for their AShBM to be a credible deterrence against US aggression. They have no choice but to forge ahead. It can mean a matter of life and death for hundreds of millions of Chinese if they cannot stop the USN right outside the second island chain when America turn fascist.
Open technical standards are in the spirit of open source.. as the video reminds us. And various people of different companies talk to each other more than we're told, ..as the group of companies have a non political practice. The related companies have a click type circle of people like silicon valleys people share intellectual information with others before politics would try to interfere. Hopefully this is true more than our US superiority complex realizes. Trying to contain the inevitable is not possible. The higher IQ levels in China and Singapore, rank 1st and 2nd, and 5 times more people combined efforts are inevitably growing faster than any country in history. This is only what my mentors said years ago when China was beginning to overtake cheap Walmart products. Before that he always joked about "made in Japan" or made in W Germany was popular when he grew up. Things that are more affordable and outlast, even if some things break which people complain about to easily,, mostly are improved by the country's producer, as tecent decades we noticed China being the factory floor of the world. And now with the commonly lnown practices of open technical standards or open ware in technology business, our US isn't able to stop many people just talking amongst the circles of people who know others in the related companies.
But can China compete with West without modicum of liberties to its brilliant minds and souls? For example recent news reports from South China Morning posts pointed out unfreedom as major obstacle in China especially in its inability to come with ideas and visions like Chatgpt. The Western technological edge is result of international teamwork of talents unless such environment opens up in China, i cannot foresee any changes in technological status quo. Of course, China can be efficient in building bridges and major dams but Pyramids and Pharaohs like Xi Jingping became obsolete in world politics centuries ago.
@@avbhinaya People have said the same thing about jet engines, the Three Gorges Dam, the space station and numerous other stuff that China has no way of ever achieving for the last 50 years.
Funny you mention ONVIF , the open IP camera standard in which you must register as a vetted manufacturer , a critical detail. Most Chinese companies never register at all. Reality is the vast majority (85℅ +) of Chinese cameras being sold do not follow the "standards" set by them, that is beyond a skin deep level ONVIF compatibility for only the absolute minimum functionally - usually RTSP stream detection works with a crippled PTZ regime. If you open the XML from the ONVIF referrer details you'll see these cameras are all broken or half broken using a handful of bodged filler code chunks, cloned unique ID's, Model numbers, Firmware details etc. ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all, and that is due to exactly as stated above. The practice of China's business ethics has made the ONVIF consortium worse off. Diluting standardisation, can you still even call it a standard..... the cherry you get for free with these Chinese IP camera's is hard coded hidden root / admin credentials , undisclosed Internet facing debug ports, hidden Telnet exposure on non standard ports as default , UDP firewall hole punching P2P protocols that cannot be turned off dispite what you or your settings menu detail, and so on. Beyond that gift who even really knows what going into Unisoc or HiSilicon IC's at the foundry level. Actually, in some ways it is a pretty fitting example of Chinese tactics in tech
_"ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all...."_ Sure, but what's the alternative? At least with ONVIF you can tell whether a particular product is ONVIF-compliant by looking for its entry in the database of conformant products. Let's face it: every standard has a certain number of people or organisations trying to make some money by spending the minimum possible amount to appear to have implemented the standard. But customers overall are still better off with having the standard than not, so long as at least _some_ vendors implement it properly. (And this is why verification systems and trademarks are such an important part of standards setting, at least for consumer standards.)
Not totally made in China. They recycle parts. new and old parts but they don't invent and manufacture them. hey cannibalized parts, reassemble, and relabel, as Made in China.
It's somewhat different. It's more like "become immune to any foreign monopoly's intervention". Becoming a monopoly itself is one of the many ways to achieve this goal.
The US prison industry itself is actually a profit center. Also, jailing executives is considered "bad for the economy". There was a time when lots of US executives indeed went to prison under the investigations of Ferdinand Pecora in the 1930s. The pendulum needs to swing back!
@@Ateshtesh India is obviously is a smaller democracy than China then. Chinese people are invited to participate in the process in higher numbers than anywhere else in the world.
@@FuzzyDunlots completely agreed Mechanism to evaluate governors make a better governance. Countries self-called "democracies" over the world are actually "popularity contest driven governments" instead of real democracy. But they believe they are the only way and the real democracy. That happen when the ideology is over the pragmatism and the way to do the things are more important that the result.
Not really, no. Almost every country subsidises some of its own industry in one way or another. The U.S. has been subsidising other industries, such as farming, for decades. There's not necessarily anything wrong with this. In democracies this may happen because someone does an analysis and finds that it's good for the country overall, and others agree with him. For example, it might be felt worthwhile to maintain a strategic supply of certain goods. It might also happen because a lobbyist from that industry gives a bribe (oops! I mean, "campaign donation") to a politician or political party, or some other quid pro quo. Such subsidies are more often than not bad for the country as a whole, but it's hard to police every single use of public funds when there's a lot going out, as there is any large country. In other forms of government the mechanisms may be similar or somewhat different. As far as the semiconductor industries go, for both the U.S. and China it seems to make sense to spend some public money to try to increase supply chain resilience within the country, and this is likely to have at least some beneficial effect for everybody in the world if both manage to do it. (Basically, it reduces the ability of any one actor to affect the market so much, at least as far as things like collecting rent-in the economic sense-goes.)
@@Curt_Sampson The irony I was aluding to was, as opointed out in the video, that the Chinese subsidies have not worked out very well for their domestic semiconductor industry and it seems like we are about to follow their example. I understand that these subsidies are made to secure our supply chain as a matter of national security more than to secure some economic advantage over Chinese competitors. However, government subsidies, by whatever criteria is used to select the specific corporate recipients, amounts to picking winners and losers. No matter how diligently government "experts" are in their decision-making, the end result is likely to be a misallocation of capital relative to the free-market in the absence of subsidies. In the end, the federal government is more likely to weaken the competitiveness of the industry that they are trying to help. It is the unintended consequences of these subsidies that is what creates the irony. And it's even less forgiveable after seeing the Chinese try it first.
@@bradsalz4084 The end result is not just "likely" to be a misallocation of capital relative to what the "free market" would have done; it's a certainty, if it works at all. Otherwise they wouldn't do it. But "misallocation" is a value judgement: obviously someone who is interested only in an increase in dividends and/or share value of a company in which they own shares values things differently from, say, a government that wants a more secure supply chain for some particular parts. Whether this will increase or decrease competitiveness of a particular national industry depends on much else, and the "free market" is just as capable of doing that as other methods. For example, the U.S. had an opportunity to be a much stronger competitor in solar panels, but due to the "free market" gave away their lead and now the U.S. is far less competitive than China in that area. (Again, whether that's good or bad depends on who you are and where your interests lie.) There is, I suppose, an irony here, but it's not that China failed with their subsidies, but that you, taking on to some degree the mantle of a "free market fundamentalist," didn't point out that part of the reason the Chinese investment scheme didn't do very well at achieving its goals was that (as the video pointed out) it invested more like a "free market" investment fund (prioritising the fund's profit) by allocating capital to large companies that were already strong and likely to be profitable, instead of the smaller companies that were doing more innovative work.
The mistake this video and others are making is that by value China is very far from achieving its semiconductor self sufficiency goals. But by volume, they are pretty close. The benefit of semiconductors are that they enable many other, far more valuable industries, so the cheaper, low end chips are the most important ones for now. Of course they could be better, but the big fund has done amazingly well
I would never consider buying a Chinese CPU. Not only would it perform poorly, it would be highly likely that it would contain spyware circuits. aka Hauwei 5G chps
The problem is that there has to be people that spend the money, otherwise the enconomy is going to stop. It's just never to be a self incentive enconomy environment. So the fund even with huge flaw and very likely incure benefits exchange and corruption, yet indeed it pushes the china integrated circuit industrials.
Recently there are quite a few of them doing well despite others' failure. For example Beijing Moore Threads who released their own GPU and AI chips recently.
@@leezhieng I fully agreed and actually it is indeed that the fund could grant great purchase power for China to purchase GPU Imagination and secure the GPU cores to be readily available for company like Moore Thread (which is sales teams leader from NVIDIA Found this company) or BIRENTECH
I was talking about the pros and cons of open source software like Linux the other day. I was saying that it allows China to just walk into industries that would otherwise be controlled by western companies. My friend thought that the benefits still far outway the downsides. All the same, I worry that China will abuse open standards like RISC-V to try to dominate in the design of microcontrollers
@@keyboardt8276 it's only a downside if you're a (western) monopolist.. as it threatens your monopoly. Problem for libertarian westerners (which also have trouble with China) is the monopolist agenda that China represents. Single party rule is political monopolism. Centrally planned economic activity is monopolism.
How do you abuse a standard that's open? Nobody can block you from using it, and nobody can force you to use it. If you insist on platforms that are not open, you block out a lot more than China, you also choke your own startups. As we can see from Google and Android, even a company built on the so called "Do no evil", eventually succumb to the commercial lure of monopolistic behavior.
Nomination Policy SINO ICT: Selection Criteria 2.1 The factors listed below would be used as reference by the Nomination • Diversity in all its aspects, including but not limited to gender, age, cultural and educational background, ethnicity, professional experience, skills, knowledge and length of service... the result ? 99% ethnics Han ...
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I love these videos and have been watching for over a year now. Please never burn yourself out. You're a gem in the rough world of information on this platform. stay sane
👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
Patreon is a really good way to keep creators motivated. :)
A.G.I Will be man's last invention
🍺
I actually like that he uses bland visuals and minimal audio (almost only his voice with little alteration or additional effects), it cuts down on the amount of time he has to spend on each video which goes a long way to fighting burnout
2:24 I lived at the bottom-right corner of this place for my first 10 years after birth (it looked very different before 2008). Then I moved to close to 742 factory, which was later called Hua Jing 华晶 and I regularly went through the road in front of its headquarters 😃. The headquarters were a group of Soviet Russian style building blocks with brick-red roofs inside the city. The photo you showed at 1:37 was the fab outside the city in the 1990s. At the time of setting up this fab, 742 was already renamed into Hua Jing.
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Wow, there was a decent smattering of rando negative comments just 30 minutes after posting. Someone touched a nerve.
It's good to see that asianometry is living rent free in others heads.
Happens on all of his China videos
@@returnnull3476 this is the opposite of not living in an apartment that you have already paid for.
CCP internet trolling is a highly respected career in China
The amount of negative comments was attributed to China's illegal activities of acquiring Western technology transfers. Western industries who invested in Mainland China were required to meet certain conditions. Usually, those conditions allowed compromise in order to do business in China. We all know China has good intentions to acquire Western intellectual properties...How about a taste of your own medicines.
To be fair, the fund's goal is just no longer realistic due to the dramatic increase in both the volume and price of semiconductor products.
Yea, they need to multiply their investment manyfold and start lower in the tech chain instead of investing at the top. Invest in precision manufacturing tech, lasers, chemicals and materials, so that they have the technology to build on. You can't build a lithography machine if you can't make precision motors, etc. so you are doomed to failure. Taiwan has over 8,000 companies in the semiconductor supply industry. You are not going to catch up by investing in a few of the big status quo companies you already have. They would go bankrupt if they suddenly decided to stop using their established suppliers and have zero incentive to share any tech they develop such as metrology etc. This leads to every company having to reinvent the wheel and eats up the investment with little return spreading into the industry.
I actually saw a video about a CNC machining company in China which built an "underground" factory and took several years to start at the bottom of the tech stack so that they could match western competitors. This is how you would need to go about building a semiconductor industry, but at a much larger scale. Each company focusing on a piece of the puzzle, and becoming suppliers for the next level up. You can have all the mega fabs in the world, but if you lack the software to design chips, you are not making anything. If each fab had to build their own software stack you are wasting billions of dollars instead of having 1-2 companies become the supplier for all of them.
@@excitedbox5705 Great comment
@@excitedbox5705 Semiconductor design software is a tough market as well. As it stands, you can pirate a lot of the design software, and the big three rely on their high margin customers which are hard to sway. There is room for tools that improve flow control, integrate ML widgets, attempt analog APR, etc, but starting from scratch would leave many Chinese designers technically stranded from the outside ADE world unless their tools improved well past the existing ones.
@@excitedbox5705 with the Ungodly amounts of Money they have already spent, to the tune of hundreds of Billions.
They could have just as easily bought the necessary people to make an euv machine.
Instead they went local. Threw the money on the streets of China looking for Chinese who could build them an EUV. Nuts.
How much does an engineer at ASML or Cymer make in their life time. Its definitely not a 100 million dollars.
Hopefully they realized this sooner rather than later.
@@excitedbox5705 That aerospace chap looks like a good choice. Building a commercial passenger jet from scratch is on the same level as a modern fab I reckon.
The informations are stunning. Appreciate your effort and understanding man. Keep going. ❤️
Respect! I am in the industry and I am impressed by your research and the detail of your knowledge!
Yet another incredibly high quality report. Thanks again !!!
Please keep making these videos, your background research work is absolutely amazing!
Man, you're changing the way I think of high-tech and the role of science and research in the society in general.
On a different note, i saw in another video from another channel, that the reason for the bankruptcies were, at least some of them, that the involved companies were using the money granted to them to invest it on real state, when the market crashed, so did they.
As always, you delivered the most impressively researched, analysed, and articulate presentation of a very complex subject. Here I am wild awake at 1am and hoping the video would be so dull to put me asleep, only to no avail. 😂
Quality content a lot of knowledge 🔥🔥keep it up vrother
Its a learning experience for China and semiconductor manufacturing is a high investment gamble and highly competitive industry. It needs lots of money and talent, both of which China can count on. It also needs roadmaps, discipline and endurance as this is a marathon rather than a short race and the winner collects all.
I would love to see u dissect the current US lead 4 Chips initiative and also their sanctions on China's semiconductor that not only focuses on equipment, but on high-end chips and EDA software tools, lastly on their 50 billion subsidies to promote wafer fabs in the US.
The CCP only steals technology. It has never researched and developed anything in the past 70 years. It doesn’t have the talent or experience to ever manufacture any advanced chips.
@@Spit823 - Yah so who invented paper and who invented gun powder.. get your head out of your butt. This are just two of the inventions by the Chinese and there are lots more.
@@albertwong1919 Yeah China has done great things in the past. But since the communist party became the dictators of China nothing but death and tyranny and poverty has been accomplished. The only thing to come out of china in the past few years is the Covid Pandemic.
@@Spit823 - The whole world knows how China uplifted ~700million people out of poverty, even India wants to emulate how China did it and their FM talked about it.
Have u been living under a rock? No country in the world has achieve what China did since the start of the human civilization and yet all u know is bad mouthing a country and its people. Pls go look at the mirror and see yourself for what u are.
@@albertwong1919 no… The CCP killed 80 million people with a famine they caused. And only by opening up to the west and letting foreign investment come in did people get lifted out of poverty. China didn’t do anything really except subjugate it’s own people and persecute minority groups. I understand you’ve probably been brainwashed by the CCP since you were little so I don’t expect you to see my point.
I really like your videos man, truly excellent work
Thank you for making these videos.
The biggest error is that China assumed the 2025 initiative would lead to key overseas companies into investing in China's vision by providing funds and IP. This did not happen for three reasons: 1. Deteriorating foreign relations with the key western countries, esp the US , tighter export controls soon followed. 2. China's patriotic movement to be eventually self-sufficient. This is scary to foreign companies. 3. The majority of the semiconductor consumption is done through manufacturing facilities of foreign companies in China, China have NO say over what IC to use. In any case, many of these companies have relocated part of their manufacturing facilities to other Asian countries. In short, the carrots and sticks that China have had are simply not good enough
They never paid off investments. Thousands of companies and individual investors have been waiting since the 50's to the 90's to get paid for their successful investments yet people still keep giving them money it's absurd. They now say they will let their companies be audited and give payments due. It's a lie. they will play nice until the bill comes due. then they will cry victim as all chinese companies are pulled from the stock market. The CCP only have one skill one plan one reaction to everything.
How about intellectual property piracy thru " technology transfer"?
I'm not a expert in this field, but my anecdotal experience by talking to people from China, they never expect wester companies to help them out. They are fully convinced they can do this by themselves. The level of self confidence is overwhelming
@@ctai010 Yes, if you ask a layman. It is unpatriotic to say otherwise.
@@samwang5831 China can do this by themselves.. don't be so ignorant.
You are the layman
Great video! Could you add to your next videos timestamps for easier skipping to parts?
this video is absolutely amazing. keep going! greetings from Argentina
Im just asking a question, would opensource RISC-V save Chinese electronics from failure?
Chinese companies have developed a number of RISC-V CPUs but most are still fabbed by companies like TSMC
I'm a bit late to the party, but I very much appreciate your in-depth research, knowledge and no-frills style of imparting it to your audience. Thanks a lot!
+1
Quality content. a usual Thanks a lot !!!
Another excellent video essay!
Great insight. Those "hedge fund" type guys are not there to cultivate the industry but to make monies from acquiring technologies (which failed) from the supply chain. I don't think any one those six people are semiconductor industry experts.
Yeah to add to other comments saying this, i really appreciate your work ansld research and all your topics. You keep it detailed, interesting and with a good voice and pace. All it comes together as great videos about things i would never dream of finding out myself but have a huge interest in
This is so informative!!!!!! SUBBED!
I wonder if there will be stricter regulations on IC sales as they become a larger part of the economy. I've been pretty shy about any IC shipping from china as they rarely test in tolerance. Especially components like high performance MOSFETS, operational amplifiers and voltage regulators. With tests suggesting that a chip labeled like a lt1084 voltage regulator actually being an lm317 that has been re etched. If they had the internal structures to combat the practice, there's a lot a value in sinosourced integrated circuits.
Already happening.
Thank you for the knowledge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Without a doubt one if not the most informative economic tech channels on TH-cam!
The painting at the beginning of this video is the north area of Taipei City under Japan's rule back to 1935.
It is his regular background I think.
Great insight into the semiconductor chain. I am in circuit design
Love this particular video. Fair, precise, condensed with reliable/sensible facts and figures. No bias, defamation (especially on China) etc. A lot of other "private" videos come from China (via VPN?) spreads mostly misleading, fabricated or simply dreadful lies on Chinese semiconductor technical advances. Circulating falsified hopes and misinformation bears serious responsibilites but there's no practical ways to weed them out. Semiconductor development is ultra complicated, needs years of joint efforts/genius/resources/prohibitive finances to beat countless hurdles, tricks and traps.
God favors hard working people and luck will find them. I never seen someone live through life living without consequences, if a person is bad, will do bad things, have bad environment, and create bad environments, bad consequences and bad things. But if work, energy, and therefore our efforts is put forth towards a better future, God favors this.
How is the important of chips counted, when they are just put on boards and exported again? E.g. with the Apple A15 put in Iphones or Nvidia GPUs out in graphic cards?
love your videos, amazingly well explained and non biased towards politics, thanks!
wow this is interesting for me, one thing that popped into my brain though, how does this square with the fact that I've heard multiple times in the past that china has the monopoly on rare earth elements that are essential for semiconductor industry as a whole? did they fail to take advantage from that or what? I thought with such important advantage, they would have an easier way to gain leadership on the industry...
No such advantage. It's just China had more mines already developed but other countries can open up their reserves. Not to mention such blatant threat to globalization will lead to others quickly looking for alternatives.
Hi Jon i have only recently fallen into the habit of whatching your channel starting i am what you call alow level atari generation geek but your vids are absorbing and a very wide area of intrest also not being even a vistor to your part of the world still find myself intrested in the content recently i watched a vid you made about a FAB in north east England wich was a lot better than what local journalisum came up with i was naively wondering if you could express any insights into the Newport fab in Wales my geographic area i.e. is it a valid security risk for the U.K
would make my day if i even got a reply many thanks Gareth
Thank you for putting together this video on one very important aspect of the Made in China 2025 policy. I know that your specialist area of expertise is semiconductors, but it would be interesting to learn more about how things are progressing with the other nine strategic industries named. This would give much-neede context to the overall success or failure of these policy goals.
With regard to your comments on China Tobacco, that company is well worth a video in itself. Did you, for example, realise that Li Keqiang’s younger brother, Li Keming, was a vice director at the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration from 2003 to 2015, and it has been suggested that one of the main reasons that China was unwilling to implement smoking bans, because it would have directly impacted the wealth being generated for the Li family, despite the move likely saving millions of ordinary lives? The tobacco monopoly wields extraordinary power because it controls 98 percent of China’s vast cigarette market and provides an estimated 10 percent of government revenue. This is almost as amazing as Kweizhou Moutai, which now has a valuation greater than much more well known multi-nationals such as Exxon and Walmart. Perhaps this is where much of the money that Guiyang is investing in Big Data is coming from...
Li was immediately appointed chairman of a supervisory committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, a ministry-level body that directly oversees 112 central government industrial and service conglomerates, so plenty of other money making opportunities there.
Anyway, thanks again for another interesting and insightful video. Keep up the great work.
So - t has been suggested? Is it true?
@@petergilkes7082 Which part?
The part you said about.
@@petergilkes7082 Yes, all 100% fact!
@@christopherd.winnan8701 Wow!
the problem with stealing from a competent company is that you usually only get to do it once
sometimes only once is all you need
@@the80386 most of the times actually
As history of china has already proven.
When china was still a developing third world country smaller than Britain, it copied everything.
Copying has helped them catch up to the competition, and surpass many.
Now china in many sectors develop their own unique products.
Smartphones for example.
China copies products in order to catch up to the competition, but eventually, they figure out creative ways to improve and grow from there.
This has always been a Chinese strategy of being self sufficient and self reliant.
It has proven to work for china
And I am fairly certain it will work out very well when it comes to chip manufacturing.
Only a matter of time till china manage to create their own advanced chips.
@@the80386 seem like not this one at all.
I am quite curious about you as a person, how do you read all these tons of information and how is your process to prepare them in this nead clean way, i am very impressed :-) Maybe you can do a self intoduction video 🙂
I suspect a small team of researchers help source information. He may have a research background too, perhaps a PhD in a relevant field and has paid subscription to various science journals.
Man im surprised i've never heard of this industry before.
10:00 oh now something seem to make sense for me, some time ago China seemed to have some problems with vw, maybe they startedto implement this process, maybe not, but could make sense
Also, I really like your work, keep it up!
I woudl be interested in some sort of deep dive on self driving cars.
Great and very informative video. However, I am confused by something:
The charts showing the exports, imports, and size of China’s IC market and local production of IC’s, starting at 14:07, seem to be inconsistent. Specifically, the COMTRADE and IC Insights numbers seem to contradict each other by a factor of at least two. I realize they are not measuring the exact same thing, but that makes the numbers even worse, actually. How can Chinese exports of IC’s be several times higher than Chinese production of IC’s, for example?
Many manufacturers use China as a final assembly point. Manufacture actual chips elsewhere, solder them on the board in China, export the actual end product which is easily several times more valuable than the chip itself. This will likely account for at least some of the discrepancy.
@15:05 He states that only about 40% of exported chips are produced by Chinese headquartered companies (i.e. about 60% of exported chips are produced in China fabs but by companies that create the chip design that are based outside of China). I don’t know if that helps explain the discrepancy you mention.
@@luckyo11 seems like China can also prioritize the Chinese market to chips made or assemble in China. I am sure they can assemble the chips elsewhere. But without the Chinese market you don't need to make more chips. That means the other half of the world I assume Europe, Japan and five eyes have to pay much more to buy US chips.
Is there a text version of this? I checked the Substack site and didn't see one.
TH-cam has a transcript feature, where you can read (or copy and paste) the text of this video.
@@Graham_Wideman Thanks for that. It's pretty hard to read because of the poor formatting, but at least it's something.
For the image of the Cultural Revolution, did you really use MidJourney to generate it?? It looks really good 👀
“ASML needs Zeiss of Switzerland” and which other company from the US? Saimer? Cimer? Zaimer?
I don't think the manufacturers primary motivation is technology, but rather a way to line their greedy pockets.
Will you do an update to this video ?
@Asianometry: Sorry, regarding the video title "The Flawed Assumptions Behind China's Big Semiconductor Fund" (title as of 20220910), what were the Flawed Assumptions again? $$ is not enough?
Impressive insights into a key sector in China especially as inside info is not as exposed there as in the US
Two things are missing in this analysis.
- Long term if money are thrown constantly into some business it attracts talents. Sooner or later some companies will make their names if...
- Americas embargo is huge boon for Chines manufacturers as Chinese companies preferred western products and Chinese new comers could not find market... until now.
Well would you be surprised if I told you China isn't ANYWHERE European nations ???? ASML alone needed decades of cooperation with universities and nearby European neighbors and US company to get where they are! And they still are pumping in BILLIONS in R&D to advance further! China simply doesn't have that particular European ecosystem of shared cooperation, nor is Chinese academic output (needed for R&D in this industry) nearly as excellent as their European competitors. China' academic output is sloppy, not nearly as inquisitive and doesn't force innovation.
@@ABC-ABC1234 "doesn't force innovation" okay gotcha from where you are coming from.
@@abyyy490 I am saying the whole Chinese academic institutions are decades behind their Western counterparts, nor do they have this INTERNATIONAL mentality where you need to cooperate to come to a better end goal. China punishes innovation, with their culture by not tolerating academics/ professionals to QUESTION current practices and QUESTION current process work flows.
What hilarious about the high tech sector is that it costs so much time and money to develop and perfect. Only to eventually fall prey to clear paradigm shifts like when transistors came into being.
New theories in computing like quantum Logic gates, actual quantum entanglement in circuits, crystalline 3d data storage with no practical limits to read/write speeds, etc etc. Would make current computing hardware look like vacuum tubes overnight.
That’s why only a flexible industrial base that isn’t married to some sort of long term government plan will always win out.
Quantum computers still have a long way to go. Even if they are successfully commercialized, it’s unlikely that they’ll replace all other forms of computers, especially classical von Neumann architecture. Yes, we are indeed seeing a plethora of emerging new domain specific architectures, but they are not completely de novo approaches.
9:48 is this an AI generated image of a automotive assembly line?
Lol, I didn't see that on the first time watch.
Looks a bit surreal. Maybe it is
Looks like it, Good catch
It is quite obvious ...
謝謝！
4:27 I heard what you did there…😂
I'm just confused why they don't fire people instead of arresting them on corruption charges lol
So if you love what you do and you're good at it, they will FORCE YOU into a managment position and make you believe it's a "promotion".
Otherwise that was your GOAL to begin with and you get REWARDED for being ruthless and corrupt.
It's that the lesson our societies are teaching us?
All hail the Almighty Dollar!
You should make a video on the latest restrictions that Biden has imposed on Chinese semiconductor imports of US tech/equipment. I would love to listen to your view on how it will effect the industry.
That’s actually factory 752 (pictured) not 742…
"open technical standards are in the spirit of open source code, silicon valley tech and libertarian-minded individuals" this sentence popped out at me and i dont really understand what you mean by it, it seems a kind of non-sequitor although im sure its not. can you explain?
It’s not about what happens year to year. It’s all about pursuing the right direction and looking to the next decades ...China is well behind the USA but will narrow the gap over time if done right and tons of luck
Self sufficiency is insufficient. Inputs from abroad and external markets are always needed.
Thanks!
9:50 welcome to uncanny motors
Looks like generated by AI
The tobacco industry probably gave them money because of semiconductors used in e-cigarettes.
Thanks
What about Fabless Semiconductor Design Companies any progress?
China has several highly capable companies, perhaps Huawei is most notable.
But, when the company is design only products and production are limited by any deals with a fab.
cant China be manufacturing RISC-V chips instead? theyre an open standard and the widespread adoption of it on chinese mobile phones would accelerate their adoption?
they already build it. alot will be in the iot space
All the software compatibility issue have to be solved as well. So far I've seen several major chinese software companies are porting their products to support RISC-V but it will take some time to achieve full adoption.
@@leezhieng yup, as all new instruction standards do, its gonna take time to sort out the bugs. Hopefully we see a competitive chip market in the future, with better software abstraction so it doesn't affect the end consumer.
There is also the opportunity cost
They better learn to make bigger transistors for their own sake.
Good stuff
this is a great channel but there are also a few misinformations, 1) the 7n equivalent of SMIC is N+1, N+2 is their 5nm equivalent which is likely not in production ... yet, 2) SMEE did already shipped the supposed 5nm capable 28nm DUV machine in 2021, they kept a low profile for many reasons.
you cant share this on redit ...
GF Fab10 supposed to open in China. The building was completed, Hired foreign Managers and Engineers and some tools were installed. But suddenly stop for unknown reason. Just make a wild guess why.
Sanctions/corruption?
Quarantines for COVID?
“China Tobacco had obscene amounts of money to burn”. . . saw what you did there. . . 😀
I think the contribution of this channel calls for scrutiny as it over states issues on China and other countries but is not aware or its deliberate misinformation on US corruption incidents such as the Congress Speaker and or present President who employ their children in facilitating business using state transport and facilities. All big projects will always have overflows and such cases are the rationale to have a supervisory system. One think both nations are doing in over production will downgrade this industry.
China knows that its greatest economic gains come from mature nodes which is less glamorous, but within the real realm of producing profits and results. The cutting edge like TSMC has stumbled a bit as companies like Apple pulled back their efforts to use 3nm chips from TSMC to use 5nm node chips. TSMC looks like it took two steps back and one step forward by focusing some attention on mature nodes recently. It's US efforts sound like they could fail. Having said that, most small companies entering a new sector of growth, fail for a lots of reason, mostly for lack of funds to meet their ambitions. Even mundane sectors have failures. Most people are not interested in these failures but are occupied with trying to find the successes. That is true for the semiconductor sector.
I personally think that China's learning curve is coming up fast now and faster in the future as it gains more experience and the technology shifts to newer factors that come into play where China is at the same starting line as the west. In silicon, it is playing catch up. Newer substrates, newer light wave technologies could change the whole dimension of semiconductors but that remains to be seen.
Your videos are an excellent example of definitive facts and information for those of us interested in technology, especially in the China vs US competition.
I heard Morris Chang has finally come around to understanding the future is mainland China. I think they are going to build a new fab there or something. It's basically an admission the Arizona project is a failure. The firm got burnt via the subsidy game getting political.
lets give this construction company money. surely they'll give us potato chips.
Looks like stumbling along with failures along the way, but still toward the inevitable destination. Those who try will eventually succeed. Their production has increased rapidly, but so has demand.
ccp troll
@@lifeisneverthesame910 Something wrong with stating the obvious?
The rise in production is almost entirely in mature nodes. Leading edge node is pretty much a dead end for china
This isn't clear from the presentation. The end charts tell a slightly different story than the one you are painting. In other words, domestic consumption is currently outpacing domestic production, especially in high-in-demand product categories.
@@lifeisneverthesame910 Name calling only makes your side looks stupid
Makes sense to replace critical workers before laying them off permanently.
Let’s go brandon 🍦🍦🍦
us lock-out efforts overt or covert....reminds me of the days of DVD-stds --> no one uses DVDs today.
Open-stds = motivated inventors ...these are the guys to foster.
The founder of China's space program was badly mistreated by the us-officials
when he returned home he was highly motivated
usa is motivating others in the world to do better
hope they do so.
3:00
" *controllable* " semiconductor industry
"not sure the industry *controls* itself"
This is the crux of the issue
19:15 *controllable* supply chain.... will only repeat the fundamental mistake
I think they mean controllable as in the technology will not get sanctioned arbitrarily
@@TSRHelios play fair and nobody sanctions nobody.
Play hardball, get kicked in the teeth
@@ricardokowalski1579 even Japanese get sanctioned when they surpassed US manufacturers. Talking about fairness huh?
@@TSRHelios not "surpassed¨ , dumping. And those where not "sanctions", they are imposed by the World Trade Organization.
But keep trying to sell the "sanctions bad" line... Cuba has milked that for decades
@@ricardokowalski1579 well, typical Western centric narrative and pov. We may agree to disagree. Have a nice day.
Don't think Mainland China will catch up in the short term. EUV lithography, development started in 1985, EUV LLC was formed in 1997, it's 2011 before ASML NXE:3100 is ready, so 26 years from EUV research to 1st EUV Lithography machine. In the medium/long term, it's anybody's guess, as countries recognized the strategic importance of semiconductors and new players are trying to enter the game, like India (whose media proclaim it's a superpower in 2020 and Modi received the UNESCO Best PM Award). China has the second-mover advantage, but so does other players/countries looking to enter the space.
Pioneers always take more time than imitators. Atleast seeing from other industries.
China is catching up very fast..
Time is not linear..it is harder to invent the wheel than reinvent it.
However..you forgot that these foreign players are actually earning money from chips , lithography etc..
This is what the West is not revealing.
For every Huawei phone..for example..Taiwan earns from Chips sales..US earns from apps.
Not all profits go to China.
So..if China simply advance everything to self-sufficiency..then other countries won't collaborate with China and only be direct competition.
For all we know.. China already has the technologies..but just not mass producing it.. more like keeping it all in pace.
dude the india thing is just a meme. people need to stop taking it seriousl;y. china is serious competitor because its the second largest economy and arch enemy of america. big difference
@@rodrozil6544 Thats why I said China have second-mover advantage. Because its second, it already knows what technologies work, it can concentrate in those area, instead of trailblazer that need to fund 10 different avenues before a path opens up.
Catch up doesn't necessarily mean catching up in EUV lithography. China didn't catch up to Germany and Japan in car making by beating them in internal combustion engine technology. It leapfrogged by betting on EVs instead. There will be a next big thing after EUV, and China will have a much better chance to take the lead in the next generation of semiconductor technologies.
Semiconductor is a strategic assets. China has no choice but to go head in to develop their own semiconductor technologies at every level because the west, especially America will not allow China access to these advanced technologies.
There have been many naysayers in the past that China can never achieve certain technical know how and they have been proven wrong. There is nothing physically stopping China from getting those tech and they certainly have the money, talent and baseline to develop them. The only thing they don't have is the luxury of time and they are likely going to be always one gen behind the west for the bear future.
China has no choice but to develop this. A large component of their defense is going to be AI powered spy satellites which will be vital to completing the kill chain for their long range antiship ballistic missiles. Now that America is blocking China from acquiring AI accelerated chips from Nvidia, it is a matter of national security of utmost urgency for their AShBM to be a credible deterrence against US aggression.
They have no choice but to forge ahead. It can mean a matter of life and death for hundreds of millions of Chinese if they cannot stop the USN right outside the second island chain when America turn fascist.
Open technical standards are in the spirit of open source..
as the video reminds us.
And various people of different companies talk to each other more than we're told,
..as the group of companies have a non political practice.
The related companies have a click type circle of people like silicon valleys people share intellectual information with others before politics would try to interfere.
Hopefully this is true more than our US superiority complex realizes.
Trying to contain the inevitable is not possible.
The higher IQ levels in China and Singapore, rank 1st and 2nd, and 5 times more people combined efforts are inevitably growing faster than any country in history.
This is only what my mentors said years ago when China was beginning to overtake cheap Walmart products. Before that he always joked about "made in Japan" or made in W Germany was popular when he grew up.
Things that are more affordable and outlast, even if some things break which people complain about to easily,, mostly are improved by the country's producer, as tecent decades we noticed China being the factory floor of the world.
And now with the commonly lnown practices of open technical standards or open ware in technology business, our US isn't able to stop many people just talking amongst the circles of people who know others in the related companies.
But can China compete with West without modicum of liberties to its brilliant minds and souls? For example recent news reports from South China Morning posts pointed out unfreedom as major obstacle in China especially in its inability to come with ideas and visions like Chatgpt. The Western technological edge is result of international teamwork of talents unless such environment opens up in China, i cannot foresee any changes in technological status quo. Of course, China can be efficient in building bridges and major dams but Pyramids and Pharaohs like Xi Jingping became obsolete in world politics centuries ago.
@@avbhinaya People have said the same thing about jet engines, the Three Gorges Dam, the space station and numerous other stuff that China has no way of ever achieving for the last 50 years.
Funny you mention ONVIF , the open IP camera standard in which you must register as a vetted manufacturer , a critical detail.
Most Chinese companies never register at all. Reality is the vast majority (85℅ +) of Chinese cameras being sold do not follow the "standards" set by them, that is beyond a skin deep level ONVIF compatibility for only the absolute minimum functionally - usually RTSP stream detection works with a crippled PTZ regime. If you open the XML from the ONVIF referrer details you'll see these cameras are all broken or half broken using a handful of bodged filler code chunks, cloned unique ID's, Model numbers, Firmware details etc.
ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all, and that is due to exactly as stated above. The practice of China's business ethics has made the ONVIF consortium worse off.
Diluting standardisation, can you still even call it a standard.....
the cherry you get for free with these Chinese IP camera's is hard coded hidden root / admin credentials , undisclosed Internet facing debug ports, hidden Telnet exposure on non standard ports as default , UDP firewall hole punching P2P protocols that cannot be turned off dispite what you or your settings menu detail, and so on. Beyond that gift who even really knows what going into Unisoc or HiSilicon IC's at the foundry level.
Actually, in some ways it is a pretty fitting example of Chinese tactics in tech
_"ONVIF is more a perfect example of how an industry standard can devolve into a half broken free for all...."_
Sure, but what's the alternative? At least with ONVIF you can tell whether a particular product is ONVIF-compliant by looking for its entry in the database of conformant products.
Let's face it: every standard has a certain number of people or organisations trying to make some money by spending the minimum possible amount to appear to have implemented the standard. But customers overall are still better off with having the standard than not, so long as at least _some_ vendors implement it properly. (And this is why verification systems and trademarks are such an important part of standards setting, at least for consumer standards.)
Now do SaaS… Palentir, Infosys. Tyler, Cognizant, Verint, Accenrnture, etc…
if what you say is right,why is best of amd proc are made in china ? it is printed on cpu ...
Not totally made in China. They recycle parts. new and old parts but they don't invent and manufacture them. hey cannibalized parts, reassemble, and relabel, as Made in China.
“Make the supply chain controllable” translates to me as “Become a monopoly”
It's somewhat different. It's more like "become immune to any foreign monopoly's intervention". Becoming a monopoly itself is one of the many ways to achieve this goal.
@@deepseer A deep thought reply without being pro- or anti- CCP. I respect you.
i 7:39 what you said was wrong they dont improve the jsut copu iy to the best of their abilities
very good
I wish we had the democratic power to do this to our corrupt executives. Our jails would be full.
The US prison industry itself is actually a profit center. Also, jailing executives is considered "bad for the economy". There was a time when lots of US executives indeed went to prison under the investigations of Ferdinand Pecora in the 1930s. The pendulum needs to swing back!
India is the biggest democracy of the world and has more corruption than China for example 😅.
"Democracy" is not warranty of anything.
@@Ateshtesh India is obviously is a smaller democracy than China then. Chinese people are invited to participate in the process in higher numbers than anywhere else in the world.
@@FuzzyDunlots completely agreed
Mechanism to evaluate governors make a better governance.
Countries self-called "democracies" over the world are actually "popularity contest driven governments" instead of real democracy.
But they believe they are the only way and the real democracy.
That happen when the ideology is over the pragmatism and the way to do the things are more important that the result.
China has the "Big Fund" and now the US has the "Chips Act". Does anyone else but me see the irony here?
Not really, no. Almost every country subsidises some of its own industry in one way or another. The U.S. has been subsidising other industries, such as farming, for decades.
There's not necessarily anything wrong with this. In democracies this may happen because someone does an analysis and finds that it's good for the country overall, and others agree with him. For example, it might be felt worthwhile to maintain a strategic supply of certain goods.
It might also happen because a lobbyist from that industry gives a bribe (oops! I mean, "campaign donation") to a politician or political party, or some other quid pro quo. Such subsidies are more often than not bad for the country as a whole, but it's hard to police every single use of public funds when there's a lot going out, as there is any large country.
In other forms of government the mechanisms may be similar or somewhat different.
As far as the semiconductor industries go, for both the U.S. and China it seems to make sense to spend some public money to try to increase supply chain resilience within the country, and this is likely to have at least some beneficial effect for everybody in the world if both manage to do it. (Basically, it reduces the ability of any one actor to affect the market so much, at least as far as things like collecting rent-in the economic sense-goes.)
@@Curt_Sampson The irony I was aluding to was, as opointed out in the video, that the Chinese subsidies have not worked out very well for their domestic semiconductor industry and it seems like we are about to follow their example. I understand that these subsidies are made to secure our supply chain as a matter of national security more than to secure some economic advantage over Chinese competitors. However, government subsidies, by whatever criteria is used to select the specific corporate recipients, amounts to picking winners and losers. No matter how diligently government "experts" are in their decision-making, the end result is likely to be a misallocation of capital relative to the free-market in the absence of subsidies. In the end, the federal government is more likely to weaken the competitiveness of the industry that they are trying to help. It is the unintended consequences of these subsidies that is what creates the irony. And it's even less forgiveable after seeing the Chinese try it first.
@@bradsalz4084 The end result is not just "likely" to be a misallocation of capital relative to what the "free market" would have done; it's a certainty, if it works at all. Otherwise they wouldn't do it.
But "misallocation" is a value judgement: obviously someone who is interested only in an increase in dividends and/or share value of a company in which they own shares values things differently from, say, a government that wants a more secure supply chain for some particular parts.
Whether this will increase or decrease competitiveness of a particular national industry depends on much else, and the "free market" is just as capable of doing that as other methods. For example, the U.S. had an opportunity to be a much stronger competitor in solar panels, but due to the "free market" gave away their lead and now the U.S. is far less competitive than China in that area. (Again, whether that's good or bad depends on who you are and where your interests lie.)
There is, I suppose, an irony here, but it's not that China failed with their subsidies, but that you, taking on to some degree the mantle of a "free market fundamentalist," didn't point out that part of the reason the Chinese investment scheme didn't do very well at achieving its goals was that (as the video pointed out) it invested more like a "free market" investment fund (prioritising the fund's profit) by allocating capital to large companies that were already strong and likely to be profitable, instead of the smaller companies that were doing more innovative work.
The mistake this video and others are making is that by value China is very far from achieving its semiconductor self sufficiency goals. But by volume, they are pretty close. The benefit of semiconductors are that they enable many other, far more valuable industries, so the cheaper, low end chips are the most important ones for now. Of course they could be better, but the big fund has done amazingly well
I would never consider buying a Chinese CPU. Not only would it perform poorly, it would be highly likely that it would contain spyware circuits. aka Hauwei 5G chps
boring
The problem is that there has to be people that spend the money, otherwise the enconomy is going to stop. It's just never to be a self incentive enconomy environment. So the fund even with huge flaw and very likely incure benefits exchange and corruption, yet indeed it pushes the china integrated circuit industrials.
Recently there are quite a few of them doing well despite others' failure. For example Beijing Moore Threads who released their own GPU and AI chips recently.
@@leezhieng I fully agreed and actually it is indeed that the fund could grant great purchase power for China to purchase GPU Imagination and secure the GPU cores to be readily available for company like Moore Thread (which is sales teams leader from NVIDIA Found this company) or BIRENTECH
, JINGJIA Micro or INNOSILICON
Why would they have Directors instead of Mixed Boards, with some military on Them too!?? I don't think the Corruption Thing is Real!
I was talking about the pros and cons of open source software like Linux the other day. I was saying that it allows China to just walk into industries that would otherwise be controlled by western companies. My friend thought that the benefits still far outway the downsides. All the same, I worry that China will abuse open standards like RISC-V to try to dominate in the design of microcontrollers
It's only a downside if you're a westerner
@@keyboardt8276 I think it’s bad for everyone when an authoritarian, repressive government consolidates further power
@@keyboardt8276 it's only a downside if you're a (western) monopolist.. as it threatens your monopoly.
Problem for libertarian westerners (which also have trouble with China) is the monopolist agenda that China represents. Single party rule is political monopolism. Centrally planned economic activity is monopolism.
How do you abuse a standard that's open? Nobody can block you from using it, and nobody can force you to use it. If you insist on platforms that are not open, you block out a lot more than China, you also choke your own startups. As we can see from Google and Android, even a company built on the so called "Do no evil", eventually succumb to the commercial lure of monopolistic behavior.
More competition is supposed to be good for Western businesses.
My understanding is that many Taiwan workers are taking jobs in China which I assume they are from TSMC
Nomination Policy SINO ICT:
Selection Criteria
2.1 The factors listed below would be used as reference by the Nomination
• Diversity in all its aspects, including but not limited to gender, age, cultural and educational background, ethnicity, professional experience, skills, knowledge and length of service...
the result ? 99% ethnics Han ...