Win Financially During a Recession! (Everything You Need to Know)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ธ.ค. 2022
- Win Financially During a Recession! (Everything You Need to Know)
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Let’s make sure you’re on the path to financial success - then help you stay there!
The Money Guy Show takes the edge off of personal finance. We’re financial advisors that believe anyone can be wealthy! First, LEARN smart financial principles. Next, APPLY those principles! Then watch your finances GROW!
We can’t wait to see you accomplish your goals and reach financial freedom! New shows every week on TH-cam and your favorite podcast app. Thanks for coming along on the journey with us.
Since watching this show I have really put the pedal to the floor on retirement savings this past year......set my automatic withdrawals for 2023 to max my 401k and roth ira accounts. I make under $100k a year.....paid off our vehicle and my wife is babysitting 1 child from church which has helped me pull the trigger to max everything out. Thanks for the motivation Money Guys!
Same here. When I found this channel in 2020 I went from 6% to 15% immediately and 25% 6 months later. I was way behind on my retirement savings but I should be on track in 5 years or so.
Keep it up during this bumpy ride and focusing on your savings rate vs returns will get you through this. Set up goals for your savings rate and ignore returns. In a couple years your money will balloon. Good job and happy new years
What's your car in your profile pic? S13? FC RX-7?
S13 240sx with redtop sr20det.....made 392whp at 18.5psi on a gt2871r turbo
Me too. also under $100K, but still lump summed maxed out Roth IRA's for my wife & myself, max out 401K & max out HSA. I'm down 20% overall for 2022, but I know it will all come back.
Extend your “army of dollar bills” metaphor for liquidity; while you want most of your soldiers taking the fight to the enemy, someone still needs to guard the base.
Haha! I love that!
‘Price is what you pay, value is what you get’ - Warren Buffet
Every crash /collapse/inflation or a recession offers an equal market opportunity if you are well prepared and knowledgeable. I've seen people accumulate up to $800,000 during crises and even pull it off with ease in a bad economy. Without a doubt, the bubble or crash has made someone extremely wealthy.
I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.
Carol Pasol Lewis is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's been able to gain some reputation and online recognition with over a decade in service, so it shouldn't be a hassle to find basic info.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market
Been through the 9/11 crash, the 2008 crash, the covid crash. It all comes back eventually, ride the waves to financial freedom.
I'm right with you and actually as early as 1987
A crash when interest rates were already zero?
Wish I had found Money guy show years ago. Only found you last year. I truly appreciate the detail examples.
If we are to survive in this economy, we need assistance right away. The ETF and stock markets are still quite volatile, just like the property market. My $370,000 portfolio is crumbling, what’s the best way to take advantage of the market?
Many people are still getting fantastic returns on their investments during this time. Simply maintain a strong sense of reality or ask for professional assistance.
I made more than $320K during this slump, demonstrating that there are more aspects of the market than the average individual is aware of. Having a Financial consultant is now the best line of action, especially for those who are close to retiring.
I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I really need help, who is this investment-adviser that guides you?
Having a good FA is essential for portf0lio diversification. My advis0r is *Sharon Louise Count* who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
Keep making great content fellas. I subscribe to multiple financial/investment shows and I really appreciate your balanced, patient, data driven approach to investing. Glad to see everyone is not out there making click bait headlines and videos that feel like the host drank a case of RedBull before the show.
Since Brian is such a big Disney fan, can you guys do a segment going over the pros and cons of buying a DVC contract, whether its a good financial decision, and how it fits into the FOO.
What is the best way to profit from the current market, meanwhile I'm still undecided about investing $400k in my stock portfolio to get some dvidends and minimize risk
Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
What a wonderful deep dive chocked full of stats! I really enjoyed this episode. Thank you!!
Big fan of your page - setting up my Roth IRA - budgeting for 2023- doing all these things and also harassing my sister and besties to watch you guys too 🎉
Follow the FOO! Good luck convincing the others. It's hard.
Love these guys, as a finance student I'm completely inspired by them!
For long term investors, recessions (and bear markets) are an opportune time to invest. Ignore the noise and keep investing regularly in high quality stocks or index funds/etfs.
I’m in my late 40’s, hubby is in early 50’s within years of retirement, but we didn’t know squat about investing so have a very late start. I soooo wish I had heard this stuff sooner!! We were always savers, but none of those dollars grew!! 🤦🏼♀️🤦🏼♀️🤦🏼♀️
While yes earlier would have been better but you’re future is not hopeless. Get a plan in place now, invest in low cost (0.04-0.90%) index funds and most importantly focus on savings rate. There’s lots of compound interest calculations on the internet to mess around with and figure out what you need. You can also find a fee only financial advisor for advice. Come up with a plan and act now. That’s a great resolution for 2023. Good luck and keep your head up.
The Money Guy. I've become Steady. Calm. On Course. Thanks!
Thank you!
The fearful crashes have uplifted my retirement savings as I've dollar cost averaged since 1998. I haven't even thought about the end goal, just that I have to remain consistent and work 35 or more years before retirement. I have increased my contributions as my wage increased from 5% at the start up to 22% in my 40's and after.
Loving all the information you guys share. The spin-off of the Dennis system cracked me up 😂
Frankenstein episode. They picked very good material!
Some of this video aged like a good wine. Great job money guys!
this is hilarious. I really needed that visual with Bo in it.
I got the CFA as well and found this guy from the Dave Ramsey show. This information is really great!
I feel so funny that I literally poured over 11k into my retirement accounts over the year, and it’s still about 900 less now in total than it was for my 2021 ending net worth. 😂
Right there with you. Will be so worth it in just a few short years though.
If you as I got 10 more than 10 years until you retire then you should feel good about having a down year. It would not have been fun the year before retirement.
With a 20% down year we're about to see some insane returns to average out around 10% again. Probably 40%+ over a year when we get out of this.
@@BitsOfInterest For sure! Even in this video they showed the graphic that says the typical return 1 year after a bear market is over 40%!
@@likesorange on the other hand, the problem with averages is that it can be sometimes 10% and sometimes 70% and still average at 40% 😜 Nobody knows which scenario we'll get this time and when we'll get it, but in the long run it will be fine either way.
The market is always forward looking. So if you try to time you, you better be really good.
i listen to the podcasts and dont usually view the videos. you mentioned that diane ended being a multimillionare yet didnt state the actual number. Can you please keep that in mind for podcast listeners? i really love this show and look forward to a fountain of knowledge in 2023.
Even if a non dollar-denominated asset sees no real gains during inflation that's still much better than holding cash and seeing your real purchasing power undermined. In other words, sometimes you have to chose between the lesser of two evils.
Yes Michael. I would rather lose 3% on a stock due to inflation than lose 10% on cash due to the same inflation.
One thing I always have at the back of my head is the Rockefeller's advice on how to earn during times like this; while others are panicking and selling or holding,
My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I know the risks of short term gains are much greater but if well managed one'd make a killing, am I wrong?
@@amymalone9241 These strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
@@amymalone9241 I was investing on my own for about 3years, did my own study and analysis before actually buying, things became rather difficult after the pandemic which was right about when I reached out to a portfolio-advisor for guidance.
Bo delivering the “Drink” System IASIP style is awesome 😂
Hey guys a comment around 47:30 talking about how the governmental economic stimulus of lowering interest rates to support recession recovery is contra-indicated by inflation.
I think a lot of the inflation this time around is artificial. In our manufacturing sector, for example, we have never had a raw material supply constraint to the extent that we had in the 18 months prior to now. I believe the root cause of a lot of the inflationary pressure is scarcity. We had a mini anomaly of this in the used small aircraft market in the last 50 years. Following the boom of small aircraft production in the 60s 70s (example a new C-172 was $12,500). The downturn of the 80’s significantly slowed down production. There was a outside un-constrained legal intervention in the market in the 80’s about mfg’s being liable for all future damages, which was corrected in the mid 90’s, but further shrank equipment production. All being said, 30 years later we are dealing with equipment scarcity.
This is not like the classic car market where “the few good ones” get the big prices, the whole fleet is affected. Today a new C-172 sells for $450,000. Doubled 5 times, average price inflation 7.25%, double the rest of inflation at 3.8% for the same period. Today the same used 1970 C-172 in “new” condition would sell for $50,000 - that’s 4:1, and highly unusual for a depreciable asset.
Bottom line scarcity causes anomalies. Once the manufacturing sector sorts out the component scarcity (it isn’t yet) then that inflation pressure will stop.
Until then, business and personal will have it rough, so cut interest rates to help out. This will help offset business and personal expenses to get through temporary scarcity.
In this anomaly, we can cut rates to lower inflationary pressure.
Brian, sounds like you’re coming g down with a cold. Feel better mate!
Saw a chart on how much your portfolio can be up if you are in at a market bottom - the average, I believe, was 65%.
quite intresting to watch as a swede i get pension automaticly from the state based on how much i have worked.
I have become a financial mutant at age 61
Someone paid attention to the STRIP marketing idea.
DRINK should have been presented with visuals of New Years but these old guy are smart for borrowing good ideas.
Keep up the great content!
My wife and I had our first child this year a baby girl. I’m 35 she is 33. We were a little late to the financial mutant train but are following the FOO now. I know for sure I want our daughter to be a mutant and possible a member of the FIRE movement. We make between $150-175k a year have started a 529 and a custodial brokerage account. Would it be possible for you guys to create a FOO for kids lol. Or just some tips and pointers on how to keep her on track to becoming a mutant/fire member. Thanks guys love the content!!!
Aw congrats on your growing family. You are doing amazing trying to learn and put her is a better financial position.
You will be very happy in 18 years that you started that 529 when your child was an infant!
33:19 Nice graph. Have you ever looked at what benefit there could be not by searching for the bottom of the well, but instead adding more any time the market drops by 15% over the avg. for past 6 months? (or 25% or 30%??) If a person continues with their monthly amounts, shouldn't there be that much more to be had by adding any time there's a dip? If I'm putting in $583.33/month (@ $7k/Yr) and then add another $2k in the lulls, wouldn't that be another 25% (or more) on those amounts without sacrificing the normal investment amounts? I'm sure we will never know when the bottoms will come and if we are investing for the long haul, then we don't need to guess at where the peaks are. This would be a good way to look at the DCA with a Buffet bonus for investing any extra funds whenever a market starts to settle. I'm sure there are very few Biffs, but I think most could take a cue from Buffet in addition to their DCA investing.
Checked my 401k after 30 years and I did all the dumb things.
❤❤❤
It's a sin wave from school. Good show. Really noticing the improved visuals
A wave of sin? Sounds licentious
28:58 How do you advise someone in their 50s that are late in saving for retirement? Do you still recommend the FOO?
The same principles apply; you still need emergency funds, you still need to make sure you don't have credit card or other high interest debt. Depending on how behind you are (what you need to retire on minus what you have) you may need to save more than 25%, it could be 50%, but only you can figure that part out.
To get a general idea you can search for a compound interest calculator and plug in what you have and monthly investments to see where it leads you. You'll need to know how much you need to retire of course and adjust the monthly investments accordingly until it gets to your number when you want to retire. Also keep in mind that if you can save 50% you may only need to replace 50% of your income, you don't have to aim for 100% income replacement if you can live off less.
@@BitsOfInterest What this guy said. Nicely done sir/madam.
Also, the FOO is for people working towards financial independence. It's pretty much the optimized path to get there. Once you're there, they recommend 1.5-3 years of cash instead of 3-6 months, like they referenced during the "R" park of "DRINK" at about 8:10 mark.
Is there a study to track performace for this strategy?
Invest normal when PE is reasonable. Invest less when market went too high too much (high PE), and invest more when market went down too much due to fears (PE low)?
does “loading the slingshot” reduce the bounce back timeframe significantly?
If you take the statistic that after the market bottoms on average there's a 40%+ return 12 months later while the long term average is 10% per year, then yes.
I found the Atlantis secret in when you should buy or sell a stock/etf.
I can’t believe it was right in front of me!
-If you know, you know.
When you are talking about the long term how many years are long term? I have 6 years left and I'm at high risk across the board. I'm putting in 14% of my check biweekly.
20 years is the absolute long-term; once you start getting less than 20 years, you should start (slightly) getting more conservative in your investments. That's why the Money Guy mentions a transition that starts in your 40's, assuming that you're retiring in your 60's. However, at 20+ years out? Recommended investment is basically just a straight-up S&P 500 index fund.
You can see the change in the mix in Timed index funds; anything timed for 2045+ looks basically the same; however, once you hit the 2040 or the 2035 funds you can see the mix getting more and more into bonds and whatnot. However, it's a relatively small change; a percentage point or two a year more conservative for each year you're under 20.
10 years or so is the time where you should be starting to dial it back; 6 years is starting to be at the point where you really should be stress-testing your retirement, getting your cash reserves out to 18 months, getting your mortgage paid off, and so on.
20:30 - 23:58
Does the 25% minimum saving include HSA contributions, IRA contributions, 401k contributions (self, not employer matched), after tax brokerage, and hysa?
Yes to all - recommendations within the Order of Operations, of course. However, Money Guy recommends that you count the match if you're less than...180k, I think: it's part of your compensation package, so it's OK to count it. They recommend high-income earners not count it in order to not shortchange themselves, and to try to avoid lifestyle creep.
how can you really know how long youre going to live if you dont have some sort of terminal illness?
Poor Ursula 😂
I never understood the point of "missing the best 5 days". I guess it means the 5 days that showed the highest increase in the S&P500, but it's hard for me to imagine what that would look like in practice. Does it mean: I sell everything before day X, then buy the same amount on day X+1, for all 5 best days? It seems like such an artificial scenario. Maybe I am misunderstanding?
Best days usually follow the worst days. Happens all the time that folks “capitulate” and sell at the bottom as their emotions betray them- thereby missing the best days. The scenario that is unrealistic is when people ask you to reverse the stat by showing what happens when you miss the worst days… that is an impossible task without a Time Machine or sports almanac to help guide your buy and sell decisions. Being consistent and automating your wealth building will carry you through the “best” and “worst” of times.
Thanks for the comment 👍
20:30 i'm just leaving this here for later
Net worth day is almost here.
Net worth day is everyday. Time in the market beats timing the market
@@wuziwu8148 I don’t think you understood. Like Bo, I sit down on January 1 of each year to calculate my updated net worth. Despite the market downturn, it looks like I’ll be up about 8% this year. Note this excludes the value of my home.
🎉 first new year I’m excited to see my number. The first year I’ll be in the positive!!!!
@@Shay416 stay the course and keep up the good work.
I can't wait and enjoy the process. I do it every month.
I am new to the stock market. Every stock that I bought so far, I was out of luck because I bought them when they were expensive. I feel I missed out on all the stock opportunities so far for the tech stocks.I believe having 175K yearly income would be a good investment so I want to plug all my savings into the stock market. I know this sounds a bit dull but I would like to know if I should learn investing or let somebody else (more capable like a FA) do it for me? Please share your thoughts. I am kind of tired of searching for a good stock to buy and losing all the good opportunities..
s&p 500 index for long term more steady and predictable growth. The only individual stocks in my portfolio are Tesla and Google. Im holding these with a 5 year time horizon. After 5 years I plan to layer out of those holdings and use some of that equity for real estate. In my opinion everyone should be financially literate but if you make 175k/yr you may not have the time. Best of luck
After 2008, for my taxable accounts, I focused mostly on buying dividend paying stocks at a good price.
In 2019, I thought that most stocks were overpriced and only used a few percents of my cash to buy stocks.
In 2020, I started buying stocks from early March because I thought many stocks were cheap enough to meet my buying criteria. I ended up using 40% of my cash during March.
Needless to say, my decision to not buy in 2019 and spend a lot in March 2020 helped significantly.
The moral of the story? Warren Buffett style of investing still works.
; )
You should read the relevance of the dividends.
@benchoflemons398 Relevance in what sense? I should buy stocks with dividends? In that case, yes, the stocks I bought during March 2020 give me very high dividend rates due to the low prices I paid.
If you are talking about missing dividends for a year, well, the 50%+ discount in stock prices more than covered the missing div for a year.
@pdxway cool so what are the criteria? Value and oversold over bought?
@jaredhighlands4604 At that time I mostly used P/E and dividend rates to make my decisions.
@@pdxwayDividends don't matter. You can liquidate capital gains easily and on your own schedule.
"IF" all these People that spend no time investing or even learning how to invest looked at the DJIA and S&P 500 Performance the same way they look at the prices of the luxury items they buy and stuck to Index Investing they would Win. Oh well.. I like winning, buying what I can afford.
How do you start with a Roth IRA? Can I just go through Fidelity or do I need a financial advisor?
Can do it online
Takes about 10-20 minutes to do online with Vanguard or Fidelity.
I'll second David Saldana's response, yes, you can do it online. You need to open an account with a brokerage firm. It's just like having a checking account and a savings account at a bank. If you already have 1 account with a brokerage, you need to open another. Some brokerages allow you to "link" the accounts so that when you log into one, you see both/all. There are plenty of no transaction cost firms: Vanguard, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc., where at least their ETFs or index funds are free to buy/sell. I use TD Ameritrade and buy ETFs from all over for free (but they've been bought out by Schwab and will merge next year). When I log in, I can see my Roth, my wife's Roth, my regular IRA (exist from a rollover), and our taxable joint account (3rd bucket). I then set up our checking account (at a Credit Union bank) so I can transfer money in/out at no fee (1-3 days). I have automatic, reoccurring contributions go from my checking account to our Roths one day after pay day each month. Some even will do reoccurring purchases for you (not sure who, but I think you need to do the index funds, I have all ETFs), but I like to log in, check things over and make the buys myself.
Please don't pay a financial advisor. Opening a Roth IRA is pretty simple. You just need a bank account (checking) which you link up to an investment through Vanguard or Fidelity. I suggest an Index fund with a low cost expense ratio and a decent track record.
Can anyone explain how Diane had made the most doing DCA if billy is timing the market at 100% success of lowest value?
Billy waited between market peaks & ONLY invested on the best possible day. The money he made at "market low plus one day" sat in cash until the next market low, while Diane's got invested & started making gains/dividends.
@@arh1234 gotcha I thought they meant Billy bought during the lowest times per year
Diane was always invested in the market, which increases the amount of dividends & compound interest she receives, while Billy withdrew & kept it in cash during the highest peaks in the market. While Billy waited for the roller coaster to hit bottom, before he went back in, Diane was always invested, never actually realizing any "losses". More time in the market always beats timing the market.
@@jimhandler1129 gotcha thanks, so Diane made more because kept withdrawing the money. I was confused by their log because if billy bought at the lows and never sold between the intervals he should theoretically be higher
Spending emergency reserves when the market is down is no different from trying to time the market.
What are the best index or etf should I invest in my Roth IRA?
The ones that have the most diversification at the lowest cost. As they say on the show, you can start with a Target Date Retirement Fund and you'll own all the stocks and bonds out there. You can figure out later if you want a different mix or you want to do it yourself, but that's a lot more work.
Go to Vanguard or Fidelity. You can see the low expense ratios. (.03 - .40) Look at the track record for each fund. VTSAX, FXAIX for example.
I have always kept money simple . Saving some-spending some Investing some and giving some,it has worked very well for me. KISS Keep it simple stupid
And of course this episode was the bottom of the market
did you guys photoshop Bo's face at 2:58? Holy Molly Hilarious
They did! It’s from the show It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia
My 401k has a Roth option? Should I just keep my investing in my 401 or is it necessary to have a individual Ira!?
We’re already in recession tho
Imho retirement should be started with 2 years of expenses saved
Im the opposite, I feel a recession only is effecting me and no one else . Im the only one loosing money
Since the market is the average of all investors the average investor is down 20% 😉. Some a lot more if they're all in on tech stocks. I hope that makes you feel better or less bad.
Nope you’re not alone. Our assets have declined about $300k YTD. Don’t sell just keep buying. Everyone get so excited about Black Friday deals well 2022 (and likely 2023) is Black Friday deals for assets. In a couple years the value of your assets will balloon. Keep your head up. Happy new years
@@ronrogers5045 Exactly! If you zoom out on the charts you'll see indexes are about the same price they were 2 years ago so you're getting a great deal. If you zoom out far enough you'll also realize that they may never be this cheap again since in the long run the market goes up.
Main character syndrome
@@ronrogers5045 I agree not selling and not getting out of the market . It’s just frustrating when absolute morons in DC effect my finances. Big difference between a businessman in charge and a old man that needs a diaper change
Q 1 and 2 were negative. That was a recession.
Not exactly, two Q of negative GDP do not automatically indicate a recession
Q2 was essentially zero.
Stocks are on clearance you can't afford to not buy
“Nobody knows when bad things are going to happen” (Nancy Pelosi and her portfolio have left the chat) 😂
I do love watching your content...but wow, that was some amazingly creative "tennessee-an" math and logic that Bo laid on us (at 4:25) as to how the 2009 Obama administration is responsible for the current 2023 U.S. inflation ...hmmmm, I think I seem to recall Obama being handed a scorched earth scenario in 2009 and then implementing measures to repair a fiscal nightmare created by Wall Street and the former administration...but, by using Bo's formula... I have to take into account that our collective U.S. reality could have been viewed as a result of myself and the masses being abducted by aliens and transported to an alternate universe during that time period.
: )
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
How’s DCA make more money than investing at the best time ?
Billy the Best is sitting on a portion of cash for years at a time. He might catch the big dips, but he's missing multi-year run ups by not buying the small dips and not receiving full dividends due to his growing cash holding. In their example 22:10, he only buys 5 times over 40+ years. If Billy/Biff really had the Almanac, he wouldn't have been storing cash from 2009 to 2020. He would have bought all he could up through 2018, then waited until 2020's dip. So, If Billy/Biff bought the best day every month for 40 years, he definitely would have won.
Huh. 9.81, same as the gravitational constant...
9.81 isn't the gravitational constant, it's the gravitational acceleration rate (on earth).
Everyone says the dollar cost averager makes more money, but no one explains the mechanics behind why. Mathematically it doesn't work, so how do you explain it? I think it's adviser BS.
Because Biff only bough 5 times throughout instead of every month.
I could've sworn "Billy the Best" had the most money in a previous episode they had. Does anyone recall the episode or am I losing it?
Nah, he always lost to DCA
I'm going completely off memory, so grain of salt and all that, but I believe based on the assumptions they used, Billy the Best had $1.7m, while the DCAer had about $2m.
@@Alan-jk1yi I remember it was a Charles Schwab data they got. I found the image online they showed but I'm wondering what is making them change it to DCA winning. If you really think about it, Billy the Best should always win, followed by a person who lump sums, DCA, and last is straight cash.
@@alg4812 Billy the Best is sitting on a portion of cash for years at a time. He might catch the big dips, but he's missing multi-year run ups by not buying the small dips and not receiving full dividends due to his growing cash holding. In their example 22:10, he only buys 5 times over 40+ years. If Billy/Biff really had the Almanac, he wouldn't have been storing cash from 2009 to 2020. He would have bought all he could up through 2018, then waited until 2020's dip. So, If Billy/Biff bought the best day every month for 40 years, he definitely would have won.
@@alg4812 Their assumptions were a little biased in favor of DCAing, although explaining why would get way into the weeds, so I won’t.
But to explain why DCAing won by their calculations, try to visualize this; because the market has an overall upward trajectory, the bottom of each bear market tends to be a bit higher than the bottom of the previous bear market. For example, at the bottom of the 2009 crash, the SP500 bottomed out around 750. At the next downturn in 2010, it bottomed out at around 1000, 250 points higher. To slightly oversimplify it, Billy the Best missed out on that 250 point gain on his second lump sum over that year because he was waiting for the next bottom, while the DCAer was gradually gaining bits and pieces of that 250 point gain throughout the year. The math is more complicated than that, but that's the simplest way I can think to explain the broad concept without a bunch of numbers and graphs.
There is nothing aggressive about the bogleheads approach. Are you smoking the good stuff?
Love the mando mug!