Hi Stuart Interesting about the property bubble Here on the Costa del Sol there is definitely a bubble going on Construction and cranes everywhere on the Coast Mijas Pueblo a 3 bedroom Duplex 650,000€ Granted beautiful sea views but an old apt with old brown fittings Eye water Keep up the good work 🤗
I've been monitoring the real estate market in various areas of Spain, mostly Andalucia and Valencia, and the prices have definitely gone up quite a bit in the past couple of years.
You won't find a property bubble by looking at building sites, they are a symptom, not a cause. It's all to do with bank lending and bank balance sheets being essentially future mortgage payments. You will find the bubble in the balance sheets of banks.
The more they construct the more they lend, a cycle until one gives way. When they cant sell and are left empty things start to crash. The people lose jobs and can't pay mortgages lent by the banks against dubious credentials in some cases. Banks become home owners again and we haven't Got rid of the last toxic housing market.
I don’t think he is trying to prove anything regarding a real estate bubble, he is responding to a previous comment by showing what he sees in this neighbourhood, listen to what he said!
I purchased a 106m2 3 bed apartment in Asturias 18 years ago and valuation now is approximately the same as i paid then and construction in this area seems to be nothing at the moment
Our admin fees per month are very reasonable but they don’t cover extraordinary expenses - think underpinning last year for about 100 apartments…. Nice place to live though.
A shortage of property??? There are more than 3 million vacant apartments in Spain. And that price tag of almost 600,000 euros for those townhouses...who the hell has that kind of money in Spain? I'd hate to work in the construction industry in Spain. It is bloody rough and dangerous. That's why nearly all the construction workers are immigrants, most undocumented.
I live in Canarias (Tenerife & La Palma). The rate of price increases in both islands since the end of covid has been very high and I suspect a real estate bubble is underway on both islands. I was actively looking at flats in areas such as Puerto Santiago (Tenerife) in 2022-23. Flats with 1 BR and sea views that were selling for under €150k in 2022 are now well past €200k. I bought a 2 BR flat in Cabo Blanco Arona (Tenerife) for €130k (reserva in Oct 2022, final escritura in April 2024). It is a building which was started in 2008 and abandoned in the aftermath of the last real estate crisis in 2008-10. As soon as the escrituras were signed on the completed flats in April 2024 I saw several flats listed for sale on idealista for €210-€250k.... several are identical to mine which sold for 130k in late 2022 or 2023. No idea if they actually sold for those prices, but they were advertised at that price! This type of price escalation is totally unjustified in my view and is contributing to the lack of affordabiity of housing (both owned and rental).
According to Wikipedia, the area where you're living (Rivas-Vaciamadrid) is the city with the fastest growing population during the last 20 years in whole Europe (!) and the 7th wealthiest city of whole Spain. WOW! 😮
Recently visited the Málaga area and it's incredible how many new apartment towers are being built in places like Fuengirola and Mijas, especially when they're already having periods of extreme drought and people are having their water shut off. It's only going to get worse in the next few years, so I would not invest there.
You can tell the new builds by the fact they have not been tagged with a ton of graffiti. Why in Europe is everything have graffiti on it? Please explain
Hi Stuart, I enjoyed your very interesting video, much appreciated!. Property boom to bust will only happen if we have a banking crisis, which is highly likely. In America just over 51% of banks are insolvent, and remember it was the failing US banks in 2007/2008, that dragged European banks down. In 2007, Ireland had 15% of its workers in construction, Spain had the highest proportion of its workers in construction at 17%, hence, the construction bust was severely felt by Ireland, and Spain. Banking regulations need to be robust, but unfortunately we still have light touch regulations for the banking sector. Take care, and God bless.
Madrid is a major world city and like all cities of that type real estate is super expensive. I am not sure if there is a bubble or not coming to Spain, I can say one thing the US market is on a bubble and if it goes down the effects will be felt worldwide.
The crash is coming, not the bubble. We could be in a bubble, but we won’t known unless a crash happens. Bubbles can only be seen looking backwards, they don’t show up.
Seems like in big cities, like here in USA normal people will not be able to afford houses with their low incomes. The bubble seems to be bursting over here and the reality is that historically when the biggest consumer society in the world, the USA, develops q cold, most of the world develops pneumonia!
If you want to see a bubble, check Portugal. Hundreds of thousand vacant houses, prices rising over proportionally. No local can buy a house, even rent a small flat is a challenge. Salaries here are lower than in Spain, but the property prices are higher
The thing about purchasing an apartment, you have additional fees for the maintenance of the services, the people who look after the building, upkeep of the building such as cleaning, etc., elevators, other building feature (swimming pool or gym), as well as the property or apartment taxes. These fees increase yearly. So, even though you pay 500,000 Euros to purchase it, you need to consider the additional monthly and annual expenses for you to live in it. Having your own house is probably more efficient and manageable.
When you buy a house you also have maintenance costs, insurance and tax to pay. Of cours the home owner can choose to do the upkeep themselves but most do not. The costs of the gastos mensuales in many Spanish flats is not so high (about €50-75/month) and it doesnt always increase every year. Increases in gastos must be approved by the Communidad de Propritarios (CP) (owner committee) so its not an automatic increase.
Worry about a bubble if interest rates are problematic for buyers, new construction prices are too high for demand especially if the golden visa 500k price is counted on, then spain ends the program. Hopefully spain rather than ending that visa, changes it so the new residents become tax residents.
It is nothing.like it was in the early 2,000’s. Yes there is much more construction going on but nothing like it was. In those early days the road from our local quarry was a constant queue of Lorries going both ways, but not now. Yes it’s busier but no constant. The property bubble burst in 2008 following the subprime mortgage collapse in the USA which reverberated around the world. Spain’s economy is much more robust these days. Not only that, but in the early 2000’s there was a clamour for housing from people from the UK. Following Brexit that no longer exists, the demand from immigration has eased.
Prices cannot keep going up like this for ever. It will burst at some point. Otherwise, nobody will be able to afford housing in this country very soon. Me and my partner earn multiple of the Spanish average salary and still cannot afford a house for €500k. The question here is when will it get too expensive for the foreign investors and people moving here from abroad. You've said earlier this year that 60% of houses last year were bought by cash. I'm fairly sure those were not local Spanish first time home buyers 😏 PS: lot of construction here in Valencia too
I've been saying the same about the UK for the past 20 years but it never really happened. Spain is still extremely cheap compared to the UK. I suspect Brexit has reduced demand from UK buyers, but still lots of demand from other Northern European countries. I'll be looking to buy in coastal Spain - probably Catalonia - in the next couple of years and what you can get for you money is amazing compared a nice seaside town in the UK. EU free movement is making ordinary Spanish people's lives massively more difficult when it comes to property.
It would seem it's slowed down quite a bit on the costas, properties are being discounted and quite a lot are not moving. Prices have gone up over the last 2 to 3 years we will have to wait and see if the current show down translates to a crash. I personally think don't buy for investment and only buy for lifestyle and be prepared to take a hit on the property if prices crash.
@@Sloarot Some perspective .No- one on 1200 euro per month salary is buying a 284sqm apartment !Maybe a 60sqm - which would equate to a 120K apartment - which is totally affordable as a mortgage compared to renting .
Hola todas. Hopefully, as new construction booms, so does infrastructure such as sewage to accommodate extra waste, power supplies, water, garbage pickups and transportation. Maybe a tax break for new shops, restaurants, and things to do.
I have a house in a small town, 9000 inhabitants. 10 km inland from Altea. And the houses there is selling faster and more expensive now. Some of them to northern european. altso. I agre with that comment that prices will go down. Not nesesarely because it is a bubbel. But world problem will make things more difficult.
HI Stu Thank you for taking some time to have a look at my prediction and you can see a fair bit of construction around Madrid. I've lived in Spain since 2004 and have also seen a lot before the burst in 2008. I remember taking a photo from Guardamar Beach looking back towards the town and likening the cranes to the Palm trees. Cranes outnumbered trees. Getting the same feeling here on the coast. I live between Torrevieja and Elche or ELX and construction is booming. Expanding villages, a whole new village in the making in Torrevieja and plenty more around the coastal areas. There is still a lot of toxic housing unsold by the banks. The apartment above me has been empty now for 10 years. The bank hasn't registered it with the land registry because it will be liable for overdue community fees etc. I hope the bubble doesn't burst. 2026 I would have retired but all those starting out not so lucky. As we have seen in the past the more construction the more the banks earn on mortgages, the more complacent they become with how much they lend and to who. We will see, I hope they learned their lesson last time. Sorry for the long mail. Regards Tom
Did you know the Non lucrative visa which a lot of non eu / Brit’s get changes in 2025 . Once you recieve your 1 year visa from the consolute you renew it just before the year ends . Now they are changing it so when you renew it it will be for 4 years and you will have to show over 120k euro in the bank . It’s just going through the decree now for 2025
A lot of building work murcia a lot of flats 2008 houses went over 200000 then went down to 60000 now up to 120000 to 130000 resale I really like Spain I wish I could live there permanently
All property markets are built on bubbles , you never buy at the top only when market is not great . The Spanish market has been booming for past 10 years only climate change impact in light of the floods is likely to hold back growth
Got one word for you “ okupa” until they take care of that most foreigners investing in Spain are taking a big chance , then again close to and in Madrid you have Venezuelan , Mexican narcos , Cuban rich party communist and other narcos with lots of money pretty much buying Madrid …. and that is a fact .
Real estate in Spain is a joke, legal theft, I always say that when the agent picks you up at Alicante airport, that is the most expensive free lift you’ll ever experience. This is the biggest thing you’ll probably ever buy, ( a home or 2nd home purchased with your life savings) and the person advising you has no qualifications as none are required, and was probably working as a bar man or electrician before they started their little company. I’ve been here 21 years, it was like the Wild West in 2001 when I purchased, and nothings changed. These cowboys are charging 16% commission, that’s disgusting when you start talking about 500k properties. Punters get a big shock 18 months down the line when the agent who sold them their 500k dream wants to market it a 400k 😅😅😅 rant over greetings from the orihuela costa.
“The outskirts”-“this area here-“this neighborhood”-why are you giving the names of these places? Makes all the rest of it “blah blah blah!” Your info seems to be very tentative & indefinite except for viewing some buildings under construction.
Hi Stuart
Interesting about the property bubble
Here on the Costa del Sol there is definitely a bubble going on Construction and cranes everywhere on the Coast
Mijas Pueblo a 3 bedroom Duplex 650,000€
Granted beautiful sea views but an old apt with old brown fittings
Eye water
Keep up the good work 🤗
I've been monitoring the real estate market in various areas of Spain, mostly Andalucia and Valencia, and the prices have definitely gone up quite a bit in the past couple of years.
You won't find a property bubble by looking at building sites, they are a symptom, not a cause. It's all to do with bank lending and bank balance sheets being essentially future mortgage payments. You will find the bubble in the balance sheets of banks.
The more they construct the more they lend, a cycle until one gives way. When they cant sell and are left empty things start to crash. The people lose jobs and can't pay mortgages lent by the banks against dubious credentials in some cases. Banks become home owners again and we haven't Got rid of the last toxic housing market.
I don’t think he is trying to prove anything regarding a real estate bubble, he is responding to a previous comment by showing what he sees in this neighbourhood, listen to what he said!
I purchased a 106m2 3 bed apartment in Asturias 18 years ago and valuation now is approximately the same as i paid then and construction in this area seems to be nothing at the moment
Our admin fees per month are very reasonable but they don’t cover extraordinary expenses - think underpinning last year for about 100 apartments…. Nice place to live though.
I think Europe as a whole is in this property bubble atm… prices are unsustainable, I suspect there is trouble ahead
where isn't.. look at canada and US
A shortage of property??? There are more than 3 million vacant apartments in Spain. And that price tag of almost 600,000 euros for those townhouses...who the hell has that kind of money in Spain?
I'd hate to work in the construction industry in Spain. It is bloody rough and dangerous. That's why nearly all the construction workers are immigrants, most undocumented.
That’s true but most of those apartments are in secluded areas, not the most densely populated areas.
I live in Canarias (Tenerife & La Palma). The rate of price increases in both islands since the end of covid has been very high and I suspect a real estate bubble is underway on both islands. I was actively looking at flats in areas such as Puerto Santiago (Tenerife) in 2022-23. Flats with 1 BR and sea views that were selling for under €150k in 2022 are now well past €200k. I bought a 2 BR flat in Cabo Blanco Arona (Tenerife) for €130k (reserva in Oct 2022, final escritura in April 2024). It is a building which was started in 2008 and abandoned in the aftermath of the last real estate crisis in 2008-10. As soon as the escrituras were signed on the completed flats in April 2024 I saw several flats listed for sale on idealista for €210-€250k.... several are identical to mine which sold for 130k in late 2022 or 2023. No idea if they actually sold for those prices, but they were advertised at that price! This type of price escalation is totally unjustified in my view and is contributing to the lack of affordabiity of housing (both owned and rental).
According to Wikipedia, the area where you're living (Rivas-Vaciamadrid) is the city with the fastest growing population during the last 20 years in whole Europe (!) and the 7th wealthiest city of whole Spain. WOW! 😮
Recently visited the Málaga area and it's incredible how many new apartment towers are being built in places like Fuengirola and Mijas, especially when they're already having periods of extreme drought and people are having their water shut off. It's only going to get worse in the next few years, so I would not invest there.
Are you sure those are new projects, there are a lot of those empty "poles and floors" that I have seen every few years I come back.
@svenvanwier7196 yes, new. You can see lots of cranes actively working.
I bought 2008 had it valued last year . Now 10,000 euros less than I paid for it.
You can tell the new builds by the fact they have not been tagged with a ton of graffiti. Why in Europe is everything have graffiti on it? Please explain
Hi Stuart, I enjoyed your very interesting video, much appreciated!. Property boom to bust will only happen if we have a banking crisis, which is highly likely. In America just over 51% of banks are insolvent, and remember it was the failing US banks in 2007/2008, that dragged European banks down. In 2007, Ireland had 15% of its workers in construction, Spain had the highest proportion of its workers in construction at 17%, hence, the construction bust was severely felt by Ireland, and Spain. Banking regulations need to be robust, but unfortunately we still have light touch regulations for the banking sector. Take care, and God bless.
Here in Torrevieja they have just started building a 7,000 development with most being holiday homes as we do not have the jobs to support.
Exactly & extreme traffic problems too & extra flooding. I can't see the new village ever becoming populated fully in winter.
Madrid is a major world city and like all cities of that type real estate is super expensive. I am not sure if there is a bubble or not coming to Spain, I can say one thing the US market is on a bubble and if it goes down the effects will be felt worldwide.
The crash is coming, not the bubble. We could be in a bubble, but we won’t known unless a crash happens. Bubbles can only be seen looking backwards, they don’t show up.
Seems like in big cities, like here in USA normal people will not be able to afford houses with their low incomes. The bubble seems to be bursting over here and the reality is that historically when the biggest consumer society in the world, the USA, develops q cold, most of the world develops pneumonia!
With as much bureaucracy Spain is known for, why there are no real laws governing the real estate agents.
If you want to see a bubble, check Portugal. Hundreds of thousand vacant houses, prices rising over proportionally. No local can buy a house, even rent a small flat is a challenge. Salaries here are lower than in Spain, but the property prices are higher
The thing about purchasing an apartment, you have additional fees for the maintenance of the services, the people who look after the building, upkeep of the building such as cleaning, etc., elevators, other building feature (swimming pool or gym), as well as the property or apartment taxes. These fees increase yearly. So, even though you pay 500,000 Euros to purchase it, you need to consider the additional monthly and annual expenses for you to live in it.
Having your own house is probably more efficient and manageable.
When you buy a house you also have maintenance costs, insurance and tax to pay. Of cours the home owner can choose to do the upkeep themselves but most do not. The costs of the gastos mensuales in many Spanish flats is not so high (about €50-75/month) and it doesnt always increase every year. Increases in gastos must be approved by the Communidad de Propritarios (CP) (owner committee) so its not an automatic increase.
Worry about a bubble if interest rates are problematic for buyers, new construction prices are too high for demand especially if the golden visa 500k price is counted on, then spain ends the program. Hopefully spain rather than ending that visa, changes it so the new residents become tax residents.
Love the way you tell us the Spanish building tale.
It is nothing.like it was in the early 2,000’s. Yes there is much more construction going on but nothing like it was. In those early days the road from our local quarry was a constant queue of Lorries going both ways, but not now. Yes it’s busier but no constant.
The property bubble burst in 2008 following the subprime mortgage collapse in the USA which reverberated around the world. Spain’s economy is much more robust these days. Not only that, but in the early 2000’s there was a clamour for housing from people from the UK. Following Brexit that no longer exists, the demand from immigration has eased.
Prices cannot keep going up like this for ever. It will burst at some point. Otherwise, nobody will be able to afford housing in this country very soon. Me and my partner earn multiple of the Spanish average salary and still cannot afford a house for €500k.
The question here is when will it get too expensive for the foreign investors and people moving here from abroad.
You've said earlier this year that 60% of houses last year were bought by cash. I'm fairly sure those were not local Spanish first time home buyers 😏
PS: lot of construction here in Valencia too
I've been saying the same about the UK for the past 20 years but it never really happened. Spain is still extremely cheap compared to the UK. I suspect Brexit has reduced demand from UK buyers, but still lots of demand from other Northern European countries. I'll be looking to buy in coastal Spain - probably Catalonia - in the next couple of years and what you can get for you money is amazing compared a nice seaside town in the UK. EU free movement is making ordinary Spanish people's lives massively more difficult when it comes to property.
In Andalusia they say it's all sound... The inventory was paid mainly in full no mortgage.... This is the difference from 2008.9
Wow that is a lot of money! For less than that you can buy a nice private house in a fairly high level neighborhood in San Antonio Texas.
Apples and Oranges comparison
they look like 70s council houses
It would seem it's slowed down quite a bit on the costas, properties are being discounted and quite a lot are not moving. Prices have gone up over the last 2 to 3 years we will have to wait and see if the current show down translates to a crash. I personally think don't buy for investment and only buy for lifestyle and be prepared to take a hit on the property if prices crash.
284Sqm - 577K - 2000Euro a Sqm !! come one , thats cheap !! try and find something within15km of Barcelona under 4k psqm . Impossible
on a median salary of 1200 EUR???? It's not because they're even more crazy in Catalunya that prices in the outskirts of Madrid are cheap.
@@Sloarot Some perspective .No- one on 1200 euro per month salary is buying a 284sqm apartment !Maybe a 60sqm - which would equate to a 120K apartment - which is totally affordable as a mortgage compared to renting .
What affordable housing is being developed, if any, for those in the region of that 14,000 Euro per annum income, to cover that large area of demand?
Hola todas. Hopefully, as new construction booms, so does infrastructure such as sewage to accommodate extra waste, power supplies, water, garbage pickups and transportation. Maybe a tax break for new shops, restaurants, and things to do.
I have a house in a small town, 9000 inhabitants. 10 km inland from Altea. And the houses there is selling faster and more expensive now. Some of them to northern european. altso. I agre with that comment that prices will go down. Not nesesarely because it is a bubbel. But world problem will make things more difficult.
HI Stu Thank you for taking some time to have a look at my prediction and you can see a fair bit of construction around Madrid. I've lived in Spain since 2004 and have also seen a lot before the burst in 2008. I remember taking a photo from Guardamar Beach looking back towards the town and likening the cranes to the Palm trees. Cranes outnumbered trees. Getting the same feeling here on the coast. I live between Torrevieja and Elche or ELX and construction is booming. Expanding villages, a whole new village in the making in Torrevieja and plenty more around the coastal areas. There is still a lot of toxic housing unsold by the banks. The apartment above me has been empty now for 10 years. The bank hasn't registered it with the land registry because it will be liable for overdue community fees etc. I hope the bubble doesn't burst. 2026 I would have retired but all those starting out not so lucky. As we have seen in the past the more construction the more the banks earn on mortgages, the more complacent they become with how much they lend and to who. We will see, I hope they learned their lesson last time. Sorry for the long mail. Regards Tom
The banks are driving this debt forwards, but even banks have a limit of how much risk they can swallow.
I hope those new properties are not being built by Chinese companies....
At least sidewalk and trees
Did you know the Non lucrative visa which a lot of non eu / Brit’s get changes in 2025 . Once you recieve your 1 year visa from the consolute you renew it just before the year ends . Now they are changing it so when you renew it it will be for 4 years and you will have to show over 120k euro in the bank . It’s just going through the decree now for 2025
What do you mean it'll be for four years? I already started renewing mine for years 2/3 and then 4/5. Can you please explain a little further? Tnx
I wonder how long the houses that cost over 500,000 euros will be on the market? Thanks Stuart 😊
A lot of building work murcia a lot of flats 2008 houses went over 200000 then went down to 60000 now up to 120000 to 130000 resale I really like Spain I wish I could live there permanently
All property markets are built on bubbles , you never buy at the top only when market is not great . The Spanish market has been booming for past 10 years only climate change impact in light of the floods is likely to hold back growth
“You’d like to think that they have learnt their lesson “. Ha ha ha lol. Do they ever?
Got one word for you “ okupa” until they take care of that most foreigners investing in Spain are taking a big chance , then again close to and in Madrid you have Venezuelan , Mexican narcos , Cuban rich party communist and other narcos with lots of money pretty much buying Madrid …. and that is a fact .
Real estate in Spain is a joke, legal theft, I always say that when the agent picks you up at Alicante airport, that is the most expensive free lift you’ll ever experience. This is the biggest thing you’ll probably ever buy, ( a home or 2nd home purchased with your life savings) and the person advising you has no qualifications as none are required, and was probably working as a bar man or electrician before they started their little company. I’ve been here 21 years, it was like the Wild West in 2001 when I purchased, and nothings changed. These cowboys are charging 16% commission, that’s disgusting when you start talking about 500k properties. Punters get a big shock 18 months down the line when the agent who sold them their 500k dream wants to market it a 400k 😅😅😅 rant over greetings from the orihuela costa.
You have to update your info about agents.
if he was electrician he can at least tell you about that
Property values in Spain are 30 to 35% above the real market value thanks foreign buyers and governments buying up Spain.
And when there is no tap water anymore you can look at the houndredthousand view and eat from dirty dishes in your dirty clothes.
“The outskirts”-“this area here-“this neighborhood”-why are you giving the names of these places? Makes all the rest of it “blah blah blah!” Your info seems to be very tentative & indefinite except for viewing some buildings under construction.
No evidence was provided in this video.
What a characterless bleak place.
Who’d want to live in a €600K apartment anywhere Stu? 🇪🇸