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We are potential buyers- cash or possibly 1/2 down with a 15. It’s not interest rates stopping us- it’s the ridiculous denial of sellers. They can’t expect $100-200K more than they paid in 2022! Insane
@@MavRick69 I think that depends on where you are in the country. A home is only worth what someone will pay for it.... when eggs doubled in price I switched to oatmeal. Turned out to be much healthier for me.
@@straightdrive6192I have a notification on my app and noticed a lot of sellers here in San Diego had increased the price since the rate had dropped. I can tell right away most sellers aren’t desperate.
@@kpenn8516 i just paid $7 for 24 organic eggs from an actual farm, $4/gal gas. inventory piling up where i am . I am also in So CA. don't believe the hype or whatever BS zillow and redfin predict. being smart and patient always pays off. you will KNOW when a deal makes sense.
I have friends and family members telling me they are waiting for a 50% drop in home prices. Unless a home owner is in distress in foreclosure or maybe an estate sale I just don’t see it. My house at the peak would sell for $405k, that’s what the same model sold for in 2022. Now a realtor has told me I could sell for $350k. Do you think I will sell my house for $175k? Never will happen . I would stay or rent it out. Now in 2007 I saw it happen but that was massive foreclosure, insane amount of foreclosures.
Most likely depending on where you live they won't unfortunately. Alternative is a few years where wages outpace home price increase. I don't like it but it seems most likely in areas with strict zoning (NorthEast) where it's unlikely there will be meaningful downward pressure anytime soon.
@@MavRick69 demand will stay low with the affordability crisis, if it became more unaffordable I wouldn't expect an increase in demand as a result. Lower rates shouldn't drive up demand much with current costs.
Jason when doing home sales comparisons by year it'd be helpful if you could include a column for sales per capita. Would be interesting to see how 2024 compares to years prior that way.
If five million is annual mean home sales per year since the 1980’s our population has far exceeded the building and need for affordable housing. This to me is a strong indicator you don’t need to worry about home prices going down but you should be worried about home affordability if in the market for a home purchase. Over time home values will go up
It looks like in my area which is located in Southern California, West Riverside County, asking prices have peaked. Three homes in my neighborhood sit on the market for over 3 weeks now. The asking prices are outrages. One seller already reduced the price, still outrages though. Two of these houses have asking price 15% higher than what identical houses sold for just few months ago. As for comparison, it took 20 years for my house to double in price in the same area. Price correction is inevitable. I am expecting 15% to 20% correction in my area.
Crashbros had been predicting crash since 2016 what year are we on now??? You’re from California you should know we’re running out of land, too many restrictions and the cost to build is expensive. Most houses here are owned by multi generational families which means 4-5 families living in one house. If one of them loses their job during recession. There’s 4-5 working adults can still pay that cheap or to no mortgage because more likely they bought their house a decades ago.
What’s going on right now is “seasonality” I expect 2-3% price decline until February because of Lower demand due to children are in school and holidays around the corner. This is nothing new and it happens every year. Wait when we hit spring of next year usually February and demand will start to pick it up again.
Sales will continue going down, but because of seasonality. In the Spring, there will be another frenzy like that of 2021 and 2022, because rates will continue to come down making things more affordable for buyers in the sidelines.
Great video! 20yr comparison also need to factor USA population increase by 50million people Today & therefore potential buyer now over those historic lows which equal todays soft market is much worse when benchmarked against potential buyers.
The housing bubble situation probably isn't going to be fixed by lowering interest rates. It's unprecedented that both home prices and stocks are at crazy highs. If this isn't a bubble about to burst, it will be a miracle.
@@jaydeeare285 Ok. I'm a cash buyer though, sitting on enough in my HYSA to pay $5000/mo. rent from just the interest. I'll wait to see this thing tank. I sold two homes on Cape Cod in February to get max equity and get out, because the writing's on the wall.
@@jaydeeare285 Ok. I'm a cash buyer though, sitting on enough in my HYSA to pay $5000/mo. rent from just the interest. I'll wait to see this thing tank. I sold two homes on Cape Cod in February to get max equity and get out, because the writing's on the wall.
Ok pal. I'm a cash buyer though, sitting on enough in my HYSA to pay $5000/mo. rent from just the interest. I'll wait to see this thing tank. I sold two homes on Cape Cod in February to get max equity and get out, because the writing's on the wall.
As a real estate agent is Washington state, who works in both sales and property management, i can tell you that many landlords are selling and getting out of washington because state laws are heavily protenant / squatter leaving very little or expensive resolution options for landlords. They are investing their money elsewhere. Because of this, rentals are few and far between and rental rates are heavily inflated. Thats being said, there are a lot of good reasons for people to get out of tenancy and into home ownership, stability being one of them. I certainly wouldnt want the unease of wondering if my landlord is going to sell my home out from underneath me, and it wouldnt be worth it to me to wait for "the crash" that may never come.
I am happily rent apartment in WA. There are plenty of new apartment and rental rate is already stalled because of the supply skyrocketing .My realtor is very good person who never try to overate homeownership. I will buy not because of fear or FOMO but because I am ready to.
34 m first time home buyer. I refuse to pay these prices. I’ll hold my $1700 rent Iv had since 2019. Iv made more money than I ever had and still can’t afford $3k monthly mortgage. I don’t want to be house broke!
It’s called a “prediction,” because it’s not a fact. I’ve seen more houses taken off of the market and listed for rent, or just sitting there vacant. The owner still owes the bank, whether it sells or not. More foreclosures, as well. Houses are sitting, some are selling, but they’re sitting for weeks to months instead of hours. More price cuts, too. Still not enough affordable houses available, because sellers still think their $350,000 house is worth $500k, and they just sit on the market losing money. And now the NAR rules require you to sign a contract just to see the house! Had to do that for 24 hours, lol. It’s just silly! And doesn’t benefit the buyer at all, and puts the work on them just to see a home that they many not want. Saw a home with cracked foundation that the seller wants $495k for! They lowered it $5k, and it sits, collecting dust.
It depends how much the current owner paid, their rate they have locked in. I see all the time in Seattle here homes that sold in 2012 to 2018 maybe $200k and now are for sale for $500k, even if prices go down 25% the owner is deep in profit so they could care less what happens they just want as much as possible. Some sellers don't even really want to sell they are just playing games. There is one house not far from me that keeps getting listed for crazy numbers and a few months later gets pulled. I feel bad for the agents that take these on when it's just a waste of their time
@@drscopeifyit’s easy to see when the house last sold to the current seller. Whether it’s paid off or not, the seller is losing money when it doesn’t sell, as they obviously want that money, and still have taxes and utilities to cover while it sits. The market has shifted and people are still asking too much, and realtors are the ones that suggest the price. I don’t have any empathy for realtors that do this, and they are responsible for the housing crisis during COVID. Most sellers don’t know what price to ask for. I love seeing houses sitting longer, but the resistance to lower the prices shows how unrealistic both sellers and their realtors are. At this point, realtors and sellers are delusional and creating their own problems.
Zillow prices are too inflated. Prices need to drop especially in Silicon Valley- crazy prices - STILL. People have locked in with those 0 percent loans . Younger buyers will never afford it until greed is lessened for those also wanting to keep the PROPERTY TAXES at ridiculous levels
Who gone buy the house and what bank gone finance the house with people laid off and not making the money to buy the house? No buyers equal no demand and no demand equal cheap prices. The banks don’t want the house because it’s a liability to them.
Consider the source - the same company that overpaid for homes and had to fire sale their inventory. Stick to being a website and stop trying to be an economist Zillow.
I wouldn't trust corporations just saying. Its artificial inflation that could be fixed overnight. But they don't want to. Trump will fix it or we just rent and never own 🎉
Does the data vary greatly for new construction homes? Is this another ball game entirely or does the new construction market mirror the existing home market? I notice most of the discourse surrounding housing markets is based on existing home sales.
It is concerning but also keep in mind those homeowners who are financially distressed have huge equity and can easily sell or file a bankruptcy to get rid of credit card debt and still keep their house. Our inventory still low and high demand.
@@JasonWalter1people don’t understand it takes almost 3 years to foreclose a property and we may never see it because investors will snag it out of MLS. If you notice lenders aren’t desperate and they’ll list it on short sale at current market price.
@@JasonWalter1remember 2008? we had so many foreclosures and now you hardly see it. If people want to see crash you have to see tons of foreclosures on MLS and back in 08 it was quicker to foreclose. You missed 3 payments and bank will list it quickly. Now they will work with you in a way of loan modification.
Prices would have to fall 40-50+ percent so on a national level that won’t happen. I know a lot of people want to see prices fall greatly so they can buy a house though. It’s been a very challenging market for years.
@JasonWalter1 we need to watch what unemployment does to really know if Home prices will stay the same or soften more. We know there will be slightly more inventory as people hit pain levels but inventory probably won't rose enough to get a significant decline. Maybe 5 to 10 percent would bring us back in line to more normal appreciation (overall averaging) by end of 2025. Great video trying to figure this market shtuff out 👍 😊
To keep prices this high I think the printing would have to re-start is a significant way. The Covid money has been absorbed, it’s not panic buying houses anymore. Money supply across the rest of the plebs doesn’t justify these prices. If the economy were generating trillions more dollars every year, then prices would keep rising. Otherwise, where is the money coming from? It just doesn’t exist because it came from the printing.
Id wait till after election look at prices during 2016 if trump wins it's possible they go back to those prices. Or prices go back to normal before Nov 5th or everyone has tons of money and jist don't care lol😢
@@boboylegaspi3288 the only people dreaming are the people that watch channels that give false hope of crashes. I bought three properties this year and have gotten insane deals. It’s a buyers market. You’ll see a spike in the next 3-6 months.
Zillow data is not accurate anymore. Here is my honest opinion. If you get a decent house buy it. Interst rate is decreasing which will create another bidding thing for houses down the line. This is the perfect time to buy. They are saying it will crash and they are buying. I am not an investor but someone who just bought a house and ready to sell my current. Good luck out there
@@PatamaGomutbutra stock market all time high. Real estate stocks all time high. Gold all time high. If you thought sky was falling and had been securing cash, cash is worth less now. You missed the boat.
I really hope your buddy Travis watches this, it’s important to understand the dynamics of population growth, and overall availability of desirable living areas, things can collapse all they want in the boonies is not the same thing as where people want to live
What is muting the increase in prices is that we got our decade worth of equity in 2 years. When rates go down, prices will increase faster but still less than normal. We do not have millions and millions of distressed sellers like GFC. -Curtis Loew
@@malanalan1 me too but that’s what the youngsters are calling the Great financial crisis. I do not even like that term. More accurate is the bad loans debacle.
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We are potential buyers- cash or possibly 1/2 down with a 15. It’s not interest rates stopping us- it’s the ridiculous denial of sellers. They can’t expect $100-200K more than they paid in 2022! Insane
Unfortunately they can. Just like people paying over double for eggs today. Inflation is cause, not greedy sellers.
They will want to sell for more than now that rates are down , buy now
@@MavRick69 I think that depends on where you are in the country. A home is only worth what someone will pay for it.... when eggs doubled in price I switched to oatmeal. Turned out to be much healthier for me.
@@straightdrive6192I have a notification on my app and noticed a lot of sellers here in San Diego had increased the price since the rate had dropped. I can tell right away most sellers aren’t desperate.
@@kpenn8516 i just paid $7 for 24 organic eggs from an actual farm, $4/gal gas. inventory piling up where i am . I am also in So CA. don't believe the hype or whatever BS zillow and redfin predict. being smart and patient always pays off. you will KNOW when a deal makes sense.
Zillow always juices the numbers in the forecast at the end of every year
I want to see how accurate their forecast is going to be. Nobody has that crystal ball.
Anyones guess 😊
One thing about Zillow you can predict as Jason can attest. They will revise their forecast. Thanks for the update Jason and have a great week!
@@carnivalgods4573on a monthly basis lol
It’s just a BS predict. Zillow is not God will never be.
I have friends and family members telling me they are waiting for a 50% drop in home prices. Unless a home owner is in distress in foreclosure or maybe an estate sale I just don’t see it. My house at the peak would sell for $405k, that’s what the same model sold for in 2022. Now a realtor has told me I could sell for $350k. Do you think I will sell my house for $175k? Never will happen . I would stay or rent it out. Now in 2007 I saw it happen but that was massive foreclosure, insane amount of foreclosures.
All potential buyers I know have decided to wait out the housing market and wait for prices to go down.
Same-I’m so burned out on looking for homes and everything affordable being a shack.
Most likely depending on where you live they won't unfortunately. Alternative is a few years where wages outpace home price increase.
I don't like it but it seems most likely in areas with strict zoning (NorthEast) where it's unlikely there will be meaningful downward pressure anytime soon.
@@rob_h_seThen the houses can sit and rot!
Waiting will cost these buyers options and cost (where they will rise when demand comes back)
@@MavRick69 demand will stay low with the affordability crisis, if it became more unaffordable I wouldn't expect an increase in demand as a result. Lower rates shouldn't drive up demand much with current costs.
Zillow everytime there is a small shred of bullish data: " prices expected to grow 117% year over year buy now!"
Also, population is much higher since 1995. You could probably get nerdy and do a 1995 equivalency adjustment.
so true
Jason when doing home sales comparisons by year it'd be helpful if you could include a column for sales per capita. Would be interesting to see how 2024 compares to years prior that way.
If five million is annual mean home sales per year since the 1980’s our population has far exceeded the building and need for affordable housing. This to me is a strong indicator you don’t need to worry about home prices going down but you should be worried about home affordability if in the market for a home purchase. Over time home values will go up
It looks like in my area which is located in Southern California, West Riverside County, asking prices have peaked. Three homes in my neighborhood sit on the market for over 3 weeks now. The asking prices are outrages. One seller already reduced the price, still outrages though. Two of these houses have asking price 15% higher than what identical houses sold for just few months ago. As for comparison, it took 20 years for my house to double in price in the same area. Price correction is inevitable. I am expecting 15% to 20% correction in my area.
Crashbros had been predicting crash since 2016 what year are we on now??? You’re from California you should know we’re running out of land, too many restrictions and the cost to build is expensive. Most houses here are owned by multi generational families which means 4-5 families living in one house. If one of them loses their job during recession. There’s 4-5 working adults can still pay that cheap or to no mortgage because more likely they bought their house a decades ago.
What’s going on right now is “seasonality” I expect 2-3% price decline until February because of Lower demand due to children are in school and holidays around the corner. This is nothing new and it happens every year. Wait when we hit spring of next year usually February and demand will start to pick it up again.
Because of rates, Einstein
Can confirm. I keep my eye on IE and every day multiple price cut alerts hit my email.
Fantastic discussion !
Thank you so much really appreciate you
Thank you Sir
Thanks Jason
Brilliant!!
Thank YOU!
Mahalo Sunday 🤙🏽🤙🏽🌴🌴
Aloha!
Sales will continue going down, but because of seasonality. In the Spring, there will be another frenzy like that of 2021 and 2022, because rates will continue to come down making things more affordable for buyers in the sidelines.
Zillow is all about hype
Great video! 20yr comparison also need to factor USA population increase by 50million people Today & therefore potential buyer now over those historic lows which equal todays soft market is much worse when benchmarked against potential buyers.
The housing bubble situation probably isn't going to be fixed by lowering interest rates. It's unprecedented that both home prices and stocks are at crazy highs. If this isn't a bubble about to burst, it will be a miracle.
Way things are now i may just be inheriting my parents place and move down to it when i retire.
Good Morning, Jason.
Thank you! Good morning Courtney.
To get "buyers get off the sidelines", start with "sellers lower prices 40%".
Wannabe buyers would be better off just getting better jobs.
You can at least control that.
@@jaydeeare285 Ok. I'm a cash buyer though, sitting on enough in my HYSA to pay $5000/mo. rent from just the interest. I'll wait to see this thing tank. I sold two homes on Cape Cod in February to get max equity and get out, because the writing's on the wall.
@@jaydeeare285 Ok. I'm a cash buyer though, sitting on enough in my HYSA to pay $5000/mo. rent from just the interest. I'll wait to see this thing tank. I sold two homes on Cape Cod in February to get max equity and get out, because the writing's on the wall.
@billscott6819 People that really have that kind of cash don't bother trying to "time the market" because they know they can't.
Ok pal. I'm a cash buyer though, sitting on enough in my HYSA to pay $5000/mo. rent from just the interest. I'll wait to see this thing tank. I sold two homes on Cape Cod in February to get max equity and get out, because the writing's on the wall.
As a real estate agent is Washington state, who works in both sales and property management, i can tell you that many landlords are selling and getting out of washington because state laws are heavily protenant / squatter leaving very little or expensive resolution options for landlords. They are investing their money elsewhere.
Because of this, rentals are few and far between and rental rates are heavily inflated.
Thats being said, there are a lot of good reasons for people to get out of tenancy and into home ownership, stability being one of them. I certainly wouldnt want the unease of wondering if my landlord is going to sell my home out from underneath me, and it wouldnt be worth it to me to wait for "the crash" that may never come.
I am happily rent apartment in WA. There are plenty of new apartment and rental rate is already stalled because of the supply skyrocketing .My realtor is very good person who never try to overate homeownership. I will buy not because of fear or FOMO but because I am ready to.
34 m first time home buyer. I refuse to pay these prices. I’ll hold my $1700 rent Iv had since 2019. Iv made more money than I ever had and still can’t afford $3k monthly mortgage. I don’t want to be house broke!
It’s called a “prediction,” because it’s not a fact. I’ve seen more houses taken off of the market and listed for rent, or just sitting there vacant. The owner still owes the bank, whether it sells or not. More foreclosures, as well. Houses are sitting, some are selling, but they’re sitting for weeks to months instead of hours. More price cuts, too. Still not enough affordable houses available, because sellers still think their $350,000 house is worth $500k, and they just sit on the market losing money. And now the NAR rules require you to sign a contract just to see the house! Had to do that for 24 hours, lol. It’s just silly! And doesn’t benefit the buyer at all, and puts the work on them just to see a home that they many not want. Saw a home with cracked foundation that the seller wants $495k for! They lowered it $5k, and it sits, collecting dust.
It depends how much the current owner paid, their rate they have locked in. I see all the time in Seattle here homes that sold in 2012 to 2018 maybe $200k and now are for sale for $500k, even if prices go down 25% the owner is deep in profit so they could care less what happens they just want as much as possible. Some sellers don't even really want to sell they are just playing games. There is one house not far from me that keeps getting listed for crazy numbers and a few months later gets pulled. I feel bad for the agents that take these on when it's just a waste of their time
@@drscopeifyit’s easy to see when the house last sold to the current seller. Whether it’s paid off or not, the seller is losing money when it doesn’t sell, as they obviously want that money, and still have taxes and utilities to cover while it sits. The market has shifted and people are still asking too much, and realtors are the ones that suggest the price. I don’t have any empathy for realtors that do this, and they are responsible for the housing crisis during COVID. Most sellers don’t know what price to ask for. I love seeing houses sitting longer, but the resistance to lower the prices shows how unrealistic both sellers and their realtors are. At this point, realtors and sellers are delusional and creating their own problems.
Is the 1.4% Sept to Sept and the 1.5% Aug to Aug?
Zillow prices are too inflated. Prices need to drop especially in Silicon Valley- crazy prices - STILL. People have locked in with those 0 percent loans . Younger buyers will never afford it until greed is lessened for those also wanting to keep the PROPERTY TAXES at ridiculous levels
I live in Florida, and after these hurricanes I'm not going to ever purchase a house. I would do better just investing my money and keep renting.
Who gone buy the house and what bank gone finance the house with people laid off and not making the money to buy the house? No buyers equal no demand and no demand equal cheap prices. The banks don’t want the house because it’s a liability to them.
Consider the source - the same company that overpaid for homes and had to fire sale their inventory. Stick to being a website and stop trying to be an economist Zillow.
Zillow: buy high and sell low 😂
I wouldn't trust corporations just saying. Its artificial inflation that could be fixed overnight. But they don't want to. Trump will fix it or we just rent and never own 🎉
That could be coming, for sure
Does the data vary greatly for new construction homes? Is this another ball game entirely or does the new construction market mirror the existing home market? I notice most of the discourse surrounding housing markets is based on existing home sales.
Yes it does vary, no they don't "mirror" or "lead" each other. They are two different sub markets that are analyzed separately.
Always test all windows and get a thermal gun to check windows and doors for leaks
2007 colapse ( housing bubble)
2025 colapse ( debt, credit bubble)🤦🏽♂️
Debt-unsustainable!!!!
The amount of debt outstanding (especially credit cards) in the US is concerning.
@@JasonWalter1 yes sir🫤
It is concerning but also keep in mind those homeowners who are financially distressed have huge equity and can easily sell or file a bankruptcy to get rid of credit card debt and still keep their house. Our inventory still low and high demand.
@@JasonWalter1people don’t understand it takes almost 3 years to foreclose a property and we may never see it because investors will snag it out of MLS. If you notice lenders aren’t desperate and they’ll list it on short sale at current market price.
@@JasonWalter1remember 2008? we had so many foreclosures and now you hardly see it. If people want to see crash you have to see tons of foreclosures on MLS and back in 08 it was quicker to foreclose. You missed 3 payments and bank will list it quickly. Now they will work with you in a way of loan modification.
Holy cow prices are going up and days on market is less
No crash
Increasing at low levels is still the news buyers don't want to hear. We want houses prices to go back to Pre-Covid level but that's wishful thinking.
You have to put those trillions of printed money into a fire if you want it to go back to pre-Covid pricing…
Prices would have to fall 40-50+ percent so on a national level that won’t happen. I know a lot of people want to see prices fall greatly so they can buy a house though. It’s been a very challenging market for years.
@@JasonWalter1I would be happy if they fell 20-25% tbh
@JasonWalter1 we need to watch what unemployment does to really know if Home prices will stay the same or soften more. We know there will be slightly more inventory as people hit pain levels but inventory probably won't rose enough to get a significant decline. Maybe 5 to 10 percent would bring us back in line to more normal appreciation (overall averaging) by end of 2025. Great video trying to figure this market shtuff out 👍 😊
To keep prices this high I think the printing would have to re-start is a significant way. The Covid money has been absorbed, it’s not panic buying houses anymore. Money supply across the rest of the plebs doesn’t justify these prices. If the economy were generating trillions more dollars every year, then prices would keep rising. Otherwise, where is the money coming from? It just doesn’t exist because it came from the printing.
Location, location, location.
If it wasnt for deceit, Zillow would have nothing. Next, look for the sale history to disappear as values drop...
SAME HERE
Zillow manipulate the housing market most homes in S CA are not worth the asking price.
Its worth what people are willing to pay
Of you buy you will regret.
Zillow is a scam!
Id wait till after election look at prices during 2016 if trump wins it's possible they go back to those prices. Or prices go back to normal before Nov 5th or everyone has tons of money and jist don't care lol😢
Zillows commercial is disgusting
Pillows commercial is disgusting
1😊
Kickin!
Good morning Steve!
There will not be a crash. period
dreaming
Yup, people expecting a crash are only going to get priced out.
@@TheMinor7th sure!!!….
@@abhisheksakpal484 yup!! it will go up forever
@@boboylegaspi3288 the only people dreaming are the people that watch channels that give false hope of crashes. I bought three properties this year and have gotten insane deals. It’s a buyers market. You’ll see a spike in the next 3-6 months.
2025 will be the worst crash ever
Zillow data is not accurate anymore. Here is my honest opinion. If you get a decent house buy it. Interst rate is decreasing which will create another bidding thing for houses down the line. This is the perfect time to buy. They are saying it will crash and they are buying. I am not an investor but someone who just bought a house and ready to sell my current. Good luck out there
This guy had been screaming “sky is falling “ for 4 yrs… now what? All time high. Who is he? Feeds on people’s anxiety
All time high ? - do you mean inflation. The bragging home price adjusted with inflation and devalue of dollar is nothing.
@@PatamaGomutbutra stock market all time high. Real estate stocks all time high. Gold all time high. If you thought sky was falling and had been securing cash, cash is worth less now. You missed the boat.
I really hope your buddy Travis watches this, it’s important to understand the dynamics of population growth, and overall availability of desirable living areas, things can collapse all they want in the boonies is not the same thing as where people want to live
And people today are more resistant to living in less desirable areas than ever before. Everyone wants to live in the same top 20 locations.
As I see in the graph , it seem desirable to live and most of them are not all time high even inflated Zillow prediction. Do not be exaggerating
he's still on the sidelines as usual
What is muting the increase in prices is that we got our decade worth of equity in 2 years. When rates go down, prices will increase faster but still less than normal. We do not have millions and millions of distressed sellers like GFC. -Curtis Loew
what is GFC? I hate f'ing acronyms. Did you mean GFCI?
@@malanalan1 me too but that’s what the youngsters are calling the Great financial crisis. I do not even like that term. More accurate is the bad loans debacle.