Housing Market: Time To Be "Cautious" Given Current Prices | Ivy Zelman

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ม.ค. 2025

ความคิดเห็น • 124

  • @davelindgren5245
    @davelindgren5245 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Great summary. My brothers and sister are looking to move to warm states, they are waiting for things to cool down.

  • @networth8754
    @networth8754 2 ปีที่แล้ว +49

    I cannot recall many assets which have experienced historical appreciation in such a short period of time and retained those values without reverting back to their natural trend.

    • @mrme3717
      @mrme3717 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Yet

  • @johnbirman5840
    @johnbirman5840 2 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    The best real Estate advice I ever received was from my mum (who had 3 houses)
    You Buy what you like. You buy a house that you’d like to live in. You might end up living in it, and if you like it - someone else will like it too.
    I’ve never had trouble selling a house because they were nice, good location, and fairly priced to even under priced.
    Don’t try and take advantage of people.
    As for buying and renting out houses? Forget it. There’s other ways to make money without THAT headache.
    One thing to remember though: The USA has some of the cheapest real estate in the world. Check out Europe/Australia for overpriced houses.

    • @skafabafa
      @skafabafa 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      East europe will boom

    • @arehman7287
      @arehman7287 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Very true. I am from Australia and our government here has absolutely destroyed the buying ability of average Australians.

    • @joshfgfg
      @joshfgfg 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Renting out is more like running a business than investing. As a business If you put in the hours it can pay well, but as a (passive) investment it’s not worth it.

    • @timtaylor9339
      @timtaylor9339 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@joshfgfg Maybe for you. I hire a company to manage the properties. They do everything and I only have to deal with a few decisions a year. We target for a 5% cash flow and make the difference in principal pay down, appreciation, and tax savings from deprecation. Returns total about 15 to 20% per year. I would put most of my portfolio in real estate if I could find more today that meet the numbers. Last two years the prices no longer make sense, at least in the west.

    • @joshfgfg
      @joshfgfg 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@timtaylor9339 I’m in the Uk so I’m not familiar with these metrics so can’t comment. If you mean your annual profit from rent is 5% of the value of the asset then that is good for being hands off

  • @frankyfourfingers1382
    @frankyfourfingers1382 2 ปีที่แล้ว +20

    The eloquence that Ivy displays while explaining her views is really quite incredible. I wish I could speak like that.

    • @jstro7136
      @jstro7136 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      It takes considerable knowledge on a subject to display that level of competence while speaking. She has put a lot of time into her profession

  • @EmilyAllan
    @EmilyAllan 2 ปีที่แล้ว +48

    Priced out of the market, renting for my entire adult life and I have a private university 4 year degree and no debt. I am middle class. The reason I haven't bought is because I am not going to become a slave to a 50% net income house payment. THAT is what is required to own a home unless you have a upper middle class salary or you've managed to save a lot of money for a down payment. I didn't fall for the house buying trap my friends fell for in 2006, and I won't fall for it now. I hope the investors and banks lose their shirts as punishment for greedily gobbling up all of the housing and making prices explode 100% higher in my area the last 5 years. But, with the Fed and their actions, they will be rewarded for making this housing market bubble explode higher. Tis the life of a millennial to always be sprinting to catch up in the race, only to find this isn't a dash, but a marathon, and the competition is going to run the entire marathon at a pace you can never match long term.

    • @Michael-qy1jz
      @Michael-qy1jz 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      This is what happens when they shove 8 trillion inna market in a year and buy up 40 billion a month in MBS's while holding 20 million units of rentals and housing that do not have to pay due to moratoriums. It been rediculous.

    • @thomasskelton1555
      @thomasskelton1555 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Read "lightning over the treasury building". Probably finish it 2-3 hours

    • @AB-fq4mr
      @AB-fq4mr 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Welcome to the young forgotten generation where no one can have a home or family. You better not have more than 2 kids or you'll be an even more miserable slave for the rest of your life.

  • @MayoNaze2175
    @MayoNaze2175 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Great info. Mr.Taggart, you are the man sir.

  • @RayStendall
    @RayStendall 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Excellent interview. I shared it with others and subscribed

  • @carltheyoda2155
    @carltheyoda2155 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I've been waiting for a follow up from Ivy!
    WOW, that's a powerhouse line up of experts for the upcoming conference!

  • @mackl5035
    @mackl5035 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    These are so valuable, hope you keep bringing her on!

  • @rdlouzau8752
    @rdlouzau8752 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Good interview Adam 👍

  • @BatmanBoss
    @BatmanBoss 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Wealthion 🏆

  • @purelogic3595
    @purelogic3595 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Something doesn't add up. The US population is barely growing. Rent payment trackers show that people have mostly continued paying rent through the pandemic. Despite supply shortages, we're still building more housing units than in past years. Vacant homes are at a low according to statistics.. Many people are opting to live in vans and RVs to save money. The stimulus has mostly stopped many months ago (no more PPP loans, unemployment bonuses, forbearance and rent moratoriums).
    How are the highest rent increases (around 30%) occurring in the Las Vegas metro area, where so many jobs are dependent on the hospitality sector? Convention center and visitor traffic were hit hard and haven't recovered fully. There is some appeal to Nevada in that there are no state taxes and it's cheap relative to the nearby coastal areas, making it a logical choice for remote workers. But there is no obvious place where the people are coming from, as rents are going up everywhere.
    Is the average household size suddenly decreasing? Are people buying second homes and leaving them empty in a way that escapes notice? Are landlords choosing not to rent out their homes, but doing so quietly, so that no one notices? Is there a wave of undocumented immigrants taking up housing units? There has to be an explanation similar to these for the extreme shortage of homes because what's being discussed publicly just doesn't explain it.

    • @angelashort7086
      @angelashort7086 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      There are more single people buying homes than there used to be. It used to be couples. Now people are living single longer. Some never marrying and many divorcing and living single.

    • @tmo8385
      @tmo8385 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You ask many great questions here, and I see no purely logical answer to them.

    • @AB-fq4mr
      @AB-fq4mr 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@angelashort7086 That’s true I read that 1 in 5 purchases are single women. The gaps are just getting large and people don’t see who is on the other side so they wonder who is buying all these houses. A lot of people nowadays make six figures and walk around in t shirts driving beat up cars. It’s not just doctors and lawyers being well off like back in the day.

  • @ld4122
    @ld4122 2 ปีที่แล้ว +18

    Not happy about the assessment that primary buyers will continue to be priced out. We are unhappy renters. We want to buy but can’t. Sick of the greedy investors going after a primary necessity for survival of the average family.

  • @fizzybillylah3816
    @fizzybillylah3816 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Appreciate you finding a housing analyst to chat with and share with us. Also consider the work of Keith Jurrow, I would enjoy seeing you interview him. His analysis of how many folks are not paying mortgages but still living in houses is pretty amazing….his timing has been way off, but the issues he presents are extant.
    Thanks again…and I loved the dream team panel you did with this lady and Lynn Alden, Pomboy, and Dimartino-booth. Between the four of them I really got a wholistic view of markets today.
    Please consider having Jurrow on to also discuss housing.

  • @ericalockwood3792
    @ericalockwood3792 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Excellent interview and amazing information discussed!

  • @johnconley3473
    @johnconley3473 2 ปีที่แล้ว +14

    It's a housing bubble, bigger than 2008. According to Jeremy Grantham.

  • @EmilyAllan
    @EmilyAllan 2 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    Thank you for this interview. It is very valuable information, but VERY distressing and frustrating to Millennials that aren't upper middle class.

    • @jorger7723
      @jorger7723 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      What's upper middle class? Just curious if I'm in it!

    • @EmilyAllan
      @EmilyAllan 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@jorger7723 Depends on where you live and how many are in your household, but generally according to Pew Research upper-income households had incomes greater than $145,500 or greater, so upper middle class would be between the median income of around 63,000 a year and the upper income bracket... so something like 100k a year income.

    • @jorger7723
      @jorger7723 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@EmilyAllan oh ok. Thanks! I found what you are talking about. Fascinating! I am in the upper parts of the middle class.

  • @dougmitchell20
    @dougmitchell20 2 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    Inflation is not done rising yet. The growth gap between rent and wage increases is enormous. When the Fed raises the rates it will deter people from buying, the supply will be up to par but no one will pay high home prices with higher rates. What goes up, must come down. Real estate is like buying a stock, you don’t buy in at the top and FOMO your ass off. You buy at the bottom and secure profits on the way up

    • @Canadian_Eh_I
      @Canadian_Eh_I 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      how long till it comes down?

    • @dougmitchell20
      @dougmitchell20 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@Canadian_Eh_I I’m hoping by the end of the year. I’m waiting for the discounts

    • @szaky7399
      @szaky7399 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      We need a recession for supply to pick up. One that they can't give handouts anymore. If this happens a lot of people will lose jobs and sell their homes or foreclosures will pick up

  • @WorldReserveCurrency
    @WorldReserveCurrency 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Wow what an ensemble of speakers.

  • @fomoPhil
    @fomoPhil 2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    Transient renters and squatters? How about trillion dollar asset companies buying single family homes with cash 10-20% above asking price? I'm grateful for all of the people interviewed but they're all rich. I think they're mostly out of touch with the everyday American. Do you really think they're going to say, "The reason you can't afford a home is because my friend Hedge Fund Manager Bob keeps buying single family homes all across the country with cash, above asking price. That's why you can't afford a home. Good luck, Millennials and Gen Z."
    How about a max cap on properties owned by single entities or parent entities and their subsidiaries? THAT would help open inventory in the housing market.

    • @EmilyAllan
      @EmilyAllan 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Amen to that.

    • @life_of_riley88
      @life_of_riley88 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Or simply remove speculation in the housing market altogether. If that happened, the financialization of our bullshit economy would be seriously reduced, forcing private enterprise and real business function to flourish, creating real true wealth for our country. For too long "houseflippers" and landlords have acquired assets and then just retired at 35. What a joke.

  • @bruceberens5727
    @bruceberens5727 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Real estate is more than just residential mortgages. Commercial and industrial. Specialty sectors like gaming and travel. Domestic vs. foreign.

  • @jessicamoore3093
    @jessicamoore3093 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Everything is valued by supply. If interest rate doesnt go up much, I cant imagine houses going down. Have you tried to buy lumber lately? I prefer real estate over cash. Rentals are getting top dollar.

    • @viviangall1786
      @viviangall1786 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      No inflation has been Disney Land for a long time. Welcome to reality.

    • @claradidi7573
      @claradidi7573 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@chris-pj7rk I have lost so much through investing cause i was new and didn’t meet the right account manager to invest with. I was at the verge of quitting till i was introduced to ''Katherine Rae Lobe' and my story changed, i can boost of 10-15% ROI monthly at the very least.

    • @johnlennon232
      @johnlennon232 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@claradidi7573 Always backup your trading with a good strategy, else the bear market and Inflation will hit you so hard, and you might wake up losing your saving, that's the market for you.

    • @fredgallag6097
      @fredgallag6097 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@claradidi7573 I know about the lady, i found her page when i searched her name on the internet, that's nice...,

  • @detectiveofmoneypolitics
    @detectiveofmoneypolitics 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 ❤️

  • @bruceberens5727
    @bruceberens5727 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    There are a lot of small trailer/RV uand small home facilities popping up all over more temperate rural areas Not enough housing but mostly high prices copled with lower job availability and pay. Lots of trailers/RV's going up for sale on marketplaces. This is the halfway house between renting or owning a home or living with family/friends and then homeless
    .

  • @didjitall
    @didjitall 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Raised interest rate and inventory will studently appears by magic.

  • @randypaul5427
    @randypaul5427 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Great video! I have definitely started to notice a slowdown in the tertiary markets due to higher gas prices. Interest rates have increased to 4.23% if you don’t count discount points. It’s a noticeable change in the last week or so. Time will tell.

    • @Michael-qy1jz
      @Michael-qy1jz 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Ya, by this time next year, property will be falling off a cliff.

  • @natz6405
    @natz6405 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    "Short supply" in housing market leads to "Over supply" in rental market.

  • @thelittlemuddyfarmrobertjo9152
    @thelittlemuddyfarmrobertjo9152 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I see a de-population event and those apartment high rises are getting old .. not like you can get on the oregon trail .. and get free land anymore

  • @andreavandekleut6379
    @andreavandekleut6379 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I find it perplexing that the private investors are buying new built homes for the rental market , the normal "renter of these homes are not going to be there,. ( 1500 to 2000 dollar rents are not feasable for the average "renter/worker". and the the one able to afford that, do not want to live in a home like that ( quickly built "fall apart in 3 years) kind of prppoerty. affuent persons are not going to rent a 500K home , they will be on their own compond away from normies". the rental market is for

  • @elonmuskox4305
    @elonmuskox4305 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Builders can't get garage doors, appliances etc. Buyers don't want to wait 6-12 months to get their homes.

  • @MrThemurillos
    @MrThemurillos 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Blessing and Shalom

  • @salvatorelivreri
    @salvatorelivreri 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    What day was this recorded?

  • @dareedle
    @dareedle 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I don’t see the supply side coming in any time soon. What workers, what about the cost of construction that is matching our all time high inflation. I see a major pinch for all these projects as the cost of capital goes up, the labor to bring these homes online is scarce and pricey, and the cost of lumber has doubled. Like our supply chain, it’s easy to screw it up and harder to bring it online, I see it as more of a trickle. I saw what happened to developments pre-housing crash, those lofty projects at all time high costs of land acquisition and ever increasing regulation, good luck until 2024 when we actually get the first waver of new workers entering the market vs these retiring.

  • @denaschlutz5170
    @denaschlutz5170 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Question: Currently I believe that about 38% of the single family market is non-owner occupied and about 1/2 of those are mom and pop owned. Ivy made the comment that 1 in 4 of today's buyers are investors, how is that changing the 38% of homes already owned by investors? I feel like I need to know how many investors are selling in order to know if 1 in 4 buying will change the existing level of non-owner occupied. Can you provide any more details on the net affect?

  • @Dad5home
    @Dad5home 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Today’s home prices are completely unsustainable. They were a bid up by a combination of low interest rates,speculative buying, no inventory. 2023 We should start to see the government and the lenders re-imposing tighter lending standards. Inventory increases. The fundamentals are not sound. Speculators buyers will turn into sellers. Just give it time it’ll be harder to get credit for cars, homes, appliances etc. Recession will re-balance everything.

  • @BWowed
    @BWowed 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Ivy is brilliant. Great interview.

  • @JKlessig
    @JKlessig 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    What is a “normal” house price? I’m trying to understand what a good price is anymore. Prices were crazy in 2018 and they’re even more crazy now. I was holding off in 2018 for the market crash but I’m kicking myself for not buying in 2018. This is ridiculous.

    • @life_of_riley88
      @life_of_riley88 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Welcome to the club.

    • @joshfgfg
      @joshfgfg 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Look at a chart showing house prices adjusted for inflation over 100 years. You’ll see a trend line. 2012 was the bottom, now we’re the highest we’ve ever been. The risk is… we could have an inflationary recession and price continue to rise in nominal terms

    • @life_of_riley88
      @life_of_riley88 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@joshfgfg That would be a total disaster for most Americans. We desperately need a reversion to the mean, from the upper bound. Look up the GINI score for the US vs the rest of the world. Income inequality is worse than it's ever been in the US, and we are in far worse shape than most 3rd world countries.

    • @joshfgfg
      @joshfgfg 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@life_of_riley88 I agree. We can only hope a nice crash happens.

    • @life_of_riley88
      @life_of_riley88 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@joshfgfg For sure, although when we look at history, I have to assume it will be a total disaster.

  • @Radio280
    @Radio280 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Adam, she said so much and yet nothing, so can u please do a chart or votes and ask people, if they are going to buy this year even though the feds will increase interest rates or not? It will be interesting to see the results

  • @stephenjohnson8938
    @stephenjohnson8938 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    The cost to build must be off the scale. I see storm clouds. I heard quite a few people are harvesting their equity and living in a RV waiting for the market to turn down.

    • @mikerinaldi7170
      @mikerinaldi7170 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Where did you hear that?

    • @stephenjohnson8938
      @stephenjohnson8938 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@mikerinaldi7170 In the context of RV's sales are at a all time high, I heard it locally. If rents are also sky rocketing, it sounds legit, just a way to sit on the sidelines for awhile. These are crazy times, who's to say, it may work out for some adventurous types.

    • @mikerinaldi7170
      @mikerinaldi7170 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@stephenjohnson8938 thanks Stephen

  • @thewakersci
    @thewakersci 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    When was this?

  • @zwatwashdc
    @zwatwashdc 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    How many people are renting apartments for their children? Does anyone think it’s a bad sign that the only kids who can rent apartments are those whose parents can and will rent them for them?

    • @BatmanBoss
      @BatmanBoss 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      My mother in law is doing that for my sister in law and her kid. It pisses my wife off a lot. So there has to be many boomers doing it for their grown up children

    • @maplenook
      @maplenook 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Of course but it stops when my son graduates college

    • @anniealexander9616
      @anniealexander9616 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I'm gen x. I gave my oldest daughter her home. She is married with two children. They had been traveling thanks to the U.S. ARMY.
      My son and his fiance live above my garage!
      I bought during the housing crash. I'm amazed at all the people buying with prices this high!

    • @zwatwashdc
      @zwatwashdc 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Sure, but this is a class thing. If the only millennials who can get ahead are those with rich boomers parents, then the future is not so bright. Boomers grew up to be richer than their parents - and richer than their children. But lots of Americans don’t have rich boomer parents.

  • @thomasskelton1555
    @thomasskelton1555 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    unhappy renters. What other choice is there?
    I bought land and am slowly building my home on the weekends. Fuck a mortgage!

    • @maplenook
      @maplenook 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Very smart

    • @mikerinaldi7170
      @mikerinaldi7170 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I'll take a mortgage at 4% or lower when inflation runs at 7%+ all day

  • @xchying
    @xchying 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Kristen Wiig have side gig?!!

  • @gabrielw7773
    @gabrielw7773 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Housing market won't be able to go any higher unless the bond yields come down. Fed is unwinding it's balance sheet based on TLT, XLRE, ITB, and 10 year yields. Until this reverses and the fed announces they are back to being dovish and start buying treasuries again, which will destroy everything anyways, tech and the housing market are dead. It's a sell on the rips scenario for tech and housing market.

    • @tmo8385
      @tmo8385 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Totally agree with you on this...

  • @secondsandcents2479
    @secondsandcents2479 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    "Are those happy renters?"
    Clearly never been on a TikTok comment section. These people want to eat the rich and take your house.

  • @jessicapae9642
    @jessicapae9642 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    A house that was 30k in 1970 became 90k by 1980. I wonder if dollar will lose value and keep the asset price elevated.

  • @nickwojtow6787
    @nickwojtow6787 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    What? The current housing market is robust yet not sustainable? That’s an oxymoron. The current market is NOT strong or healthy from an overly inflated hyper bubble debt filled perspective. The entire US economy has been on record low interest rate life support since 2008!

  • @johnweber6612
    @johnweber6612 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    A ton of noise about interest rates over the past six months and the fed has done nothing yet. Probably won't do much.

  • @esskay8768
    @esskay8768 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Too much GREED is what's really fu**king up the Housing Market.

  • @cameron9643
    @cameron9643 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    This is all because of fed policy. Not much more than that.

  • @dkvikingkd233
    @dkvikingkd233 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Out with the rona or out with a positive pcr test?

  • @donnab6995
    @donnab6995 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Ivy Zelman was wrong in October and now she's flip flopping. Eventually she may have her timing correct. Can some of us wait long enough or will we be renting at these high prices forever given the price fixing in the rental market? People get and charge a ton of money and they are WRONG.

  • @yateswebb
    @yateswebb 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Covid and technology normalized site unseen investment. I think that’s what makes this acceleration hard to compare to past years. It’s revolutionary the scale and speed at which people can move now. Not sure exactly how that plays a role, but it’s worth noting (ie Zillow, red fin, etc)

  • @sisterbrothers1677
    @sisterbrothers1677 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Money Honey Convention. All the hotties. We see you Adam.

  • @TheSpottedArtist
    @TheSpottedArtist 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    This was a good discussion, but I’m disappointed in the Ivy1 insert. Anyone who’s been paying attention could have told you we just had a little baby boom. Birthing centers and pediatricians have been swamped. I expected the Ivy insert to at least address the historical long term effects of baby booms on housing markets. But, all the insert did was say their predictions were wrong last year and there’s been a boom. No kidding. What a waste of time. I sure hope they don’t spam my email now.

  • @jacquesreilly1850
    @jacquesreilly1850 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Uncle Sam the welfare man won't let the free market work. We'll all suffer for it.

  • @darthvadeth6290
    @darthvadeth6290 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Is she single? ❤️

  • @alfred1535
    @alfred1535 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Lame guest learned nothin new

  • @Dawson0313tu
    @Dawson0313tu 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Learned nothing from this video

  • @strongtower1162
    @strongtower1162 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Soooo smart.... and soooooo hot! ;-)

  • @merlinwizard1000
    @merlinwizard1000 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    65th

  • @MartinezRE1
    @MartinezRE1 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Housing market is not coming