If he’s predicting that Kamala is going to win, he’s going to be wrong this year. Notice that he doesn’t say who is going to win, he said “if”. Nothing to see here.
This guy appears to have upset the maga hopeful. You know this guy is correct and Trump will lose again and it upsets you. There are many personal attacks against him here instead of addressing his findings, quite common for MAGA. Accept your loss now and it won't be so difficult in November.
He gets no love. He predicted for Trump in 2016 and he’s a solid left leaning person but he criticizes Dems and the nominee. I’m sure students tried to cancel him.
Nah, not worried. He's never actually predicted anything that is quite like this election; He might have to make some adjustments after November if Trump wins. :)
It's funny how you Democrats were calling on Biden to pick a new running mate when he was still in the race because you thought that Kamala was a drag on the ticket and a liability. Now that he is out of the race and she is the presumptive frontrunner, you all are now acting like she walks on water even though you wanted Biden to get rid of her. What has changed? She is still the same unlikable person who didn't get a single primary vote in 2019 and who has had an approval rating in the 20s since becoming vp.
He is a partisan hack. Complete ignoring the bad state of economy and run with the Democrat talking points. His prediction will fail miserably this year
His whole argument is for the Popular Vote, it won't gauge the electoral vote. Harris still does not lead in Pennsylvania in actual polls! "But polls are wrong" he says. And then he's also wrong 😂😂
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character. #Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
He interprets these keys any way he wants. Overturning Roe v Wade was a clear red win for "Major Policy Change," not a blue win. I'm voting for Kamala btw.
@@abesapien9930that’s not how the major policy change key works at all. it has nothing to do with decisions by the supreme court, and everything to do with how the incumbent party changes the policies of the previous administration, which they absolutely did do. it’s not even based on whether the policies are popular, nor is it a competition with the competing party. It’s very cut and dry, did they make major policy changes? Then the key is true
Unless he is 200 plus years old, he has not called all the elections. There are holes in his system, and he games it everytime. He did get Trump vs Clinton correct in 2016, that's the only reason I give him any cred.
@@abesapien9930 Thank you, he games the system. It's not a close system and only he can call the keys. Yes he has put a lot of time and effort into this and has cred to me. But I think there are to many variables this election and he may get it wrong, again.
The scroll on the bottom of the screen from this show referred to Lichtman as the “Nostradamus of polling”. His model has nothing to do with polling. These tv interviewers and shows are simply incapable of grasping what he is telling them. They are so tied to polling that they are not able to comprehend that polling is not predictive of election results.
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character. #Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
but republicans usually lose the popular vote. The last Republican to have won a U.S. presidential election as well as the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. So... no you don't want it to be vote by vote, you need the jerrymandering to have a chance.
OK so you want to disband the Senate then too right? I mean, the core of the College is that BOTH the States AND the People have their say...gee juuuust like our legislative process (House and Senate). Care to try again?
@@micheletravis9057we are a representative republic. Each county; state etc. votes as one. You lose representation when you get rid of the college and all smaller areas will lose all influence to major population centers. We need all people to have a voice. Sad many follow Marxist ideas to get rid of our constitution and republic to turn us into a rule by mass society which fails everytime In history.
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character. #Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
He predicts the US elections. He doesn’t predict anything like a president deciding not to run for reelection. Only the election itself . You do know he predicted Trump would win in 2016. Trump even left him a note at his office afterwards. He is a brilliant historian and his keys are brilliant if you really look at them.
He is definitely not autistic nor intelligent. He twists the criteria to say anything he wants. He literally gives Kamala a blue key in "Major Policy Change." WHAT??? Roe v Wade was just overturned. That is a clear red win. There are several others where he completely ignores the facts. Btw I am voting for Kamala!
@@willrowell3218 unfortunately I don't think the Afghanistan pullout turns the key favorably for Democrats or else it would have likely been leaning true rather than false on his metrics. Especially with the handling of the Israel/Gaza situation, I would say it definitely leans false on success, but the hostage swap might bring it into a tossup
On Lichtman’s you tube channel, he spent a lot of time discussing that on the day of the release, but didn’t reach a conclusion. IMO, the answer is no because it is not a big enough story and is already being buried by the media. It doesn’t have legs as a story.
Here is the problem with the keys: There is a lot of subjectivity. For example, one could argue that Trump has quite a lot of charisma. He is certainly a sensation, whether you like him or not. The short term economy may prove to be a liability as there has been significant inflation in the last 2.5 years, and the manufacturing sector is contracting. There has been significant social unrest over the last several months, and likely to flare up again on college campuses this fall. Foreign/military policy has been a disaster (weak on deterrence, ineffective diplomacy, 2 major wars and the threat of a third in the Pacific). Professor has got a lot riding on this call, as he has become a familiar name. If he gets this election wrong, his credibility is shot.
The American people did not want a Biden/Trump rematch. Biden wisely stepped back, and now the people have a clear choice between chaos (Trump) and a normal person (Harris.) The DJIA is at 40,000, unemployment all-time low. Most Americans are sick and tired of 45.
"Biden wisely stepped back." Um, no.......Biden was completely forced out. The donors literally froze the funds until he removed himself. And the fact that you consider Kamala a "normal person", has to be the funniest thing i've seen or read all week
And unemployment doesn't measure the people who have dropped OUT of the work force. It only factors in those who are "actively seeking". Labor participation rates are at all time lows. Inflation is at all time highs. Mortgages are at all time highs and gas has remained high. As well as illegal border crossings being at insanely historic all time highs. If "most Americans" were sick and tired of Trump, then you guys wouldn't be in a dog fight right now. And you sure as hell wouldn't need all of those illegal votes(you guys are the ones completely against voter ID laws. We know why.)
I think key #5 is being horribly misread. While short term numbers look good, ask 100 random people if they THINK the economy is in good condition. I think that the public perception of the economy is more important than the raw stats. People’s finances are suffering. The economy is the number one issue in all polling which would suggest that people are concerned about it.
This guy has long term and short term economy as favoring democrats? What economy is he talking about? Biden’s economy has been a colossal failure compared to Trump’s. I think he is off on this one
The flaw is when the VP or President of the incumbent party runs and they turn only 5 keys, he has been wrong twice in that situation. It's a blind spot for his system since there is really only 3 times this has happened in history and he was correct only one of those times. 1888 Cleveland lost to Benjamin Harrison - He would have picked Cleveland with 5 keys turned but Harrison won 2000 Gore lost to George W. Bush - again he picked Gore with 5 keys turned and Bush won
Two if you count incumbency charisma. And the economy. That is another 2, short and long term. As the charmless Harris says, inflation? That is when prices go up, and food costs more. Thanks for the insight and the policy solution. Allan Lickman must think it is fantastic. Everyone else think it is idiotic.
I did some homework….and watched the 2020 election documentary. I think I know why Trump lost so bad. Correct me if I’m wrong……but this is what I gathered 2020 Key systems Trump lost by a landslide…..because he lost 8 of the 13 keys. He lost the long term economy key💙 He lost the midterm key💙 He lost the social unrest key💙 He lost the scandal key💙 He lost the short time economy key💙 He lost the charismatic incumbent key💙 He lost the Uncharismatic challenger key💙 He lost the policy change key💙 Trump only kept 5 of the keys. He retained the Primary contest 🔑 He retained the incumbent key 🔑 He retained the military success key🔑 He retained the no foreign military failure key 🔑 He retained the no third party key 🔑 I’m still trying to learn Litman’s key system…….Gonna have to watch a lot of documentaries on every election…..I got my work cut out for me.
actually, he maintained the strong short term economy key, he kept the policy change key, he ketp the uncharismatic challenger key. i'll give you covid for disrupting the long term economy, but before that america was going strong and inflation was not a concern in any reasonably minded citizen. just a reminder for the policy key, there just needs to be policy change, whether good or bad. but for the keys kept, you got them all correct. but you may be asking, if trump had all the keys, why did he still lose, and why so badly? well, it's the same reason why almost all the bellwether counties and both bellwether states predicted trump, but he still lost. it's the same reason why all voting irregularities were only hurting one candidate and not the other. it's the same reason why they had to "close" ballot counting areas, but then still kept counting while nobody was looking. it's the same reason why benford's law was broken. given the facts without inherit media bias, it all points to the data being manipulated. Also, lichtman is biased. he is holding out hope that kamala will somehow win legitimately and is tricking himself into thinking that people will genuinely believe the economy is doing great based on gdp growth, not realizing that everyone who isn't the top 10% is suffering, whether they realize it or not. also this is the first video i've seen where he's made the keys for military success/failure false for biden/kamala and i've been checking once or twice a month.
I don’t particularly like his personality, but his personality has no bearing on whether or not his system works. All the evidence says it does, so despite his ego I listen to what he has to say
@@RASAllusion he didn’t hv the keys for that…this guy is over rated….he didn’t believed in polls,so why should I believed in his nonsensical ,keys…. My keys r common sense policies…
Criminal is the Biden/Harris Administration who lied and covered up for a man that is unfit for the Presidency and they KEEP hiding him. The Biden/Harris Administration has been nothing but secrets and Americans LAST. Harris's slogan is really "WE WON'T GO BACK to putting Americans first".
It could happen, but not a time anyone would really want to be President of the U.S. . If she wins, Kamala will be leading us as WW3 begins along with Putin, Xi, Kim Jong Un, Iran... in the next term. Does she really want that problem?
It's funny how you Democrats were calling on Biden to pick a new running mate when he was still in the race because you thought that Kamala was a drag on the ticket and a liability. Now that he is out of the race and she is the presumptive frontrunner, you all are now acting like she walks on water even though you wanted Biden to get rid of her. What has changed? She is still the same unlikable person who didn't get a single primary vote in 2019 and who has had an approval rating in the 20s since becoming vp.
Me too. Trump lied to the American ppl 31000 tines during his presidency. Fact checked. More than any other president, more than any leader of any country. What a feat. Mr. Trump. He should be so proud.
He doesn’t have to. He looks at the incumbent party the keys either are for or against the sitting party. He inadvertently does go over the keys for Trump because any key that goes against the Democratic Party is a positive key for the republican.
Also, his Keys like "no scandal" are completely up to opinion. The "Long Term Economy" key, most normal people have disliked this Long Term Economy...that key should not be Blue.
@@keith9388 depends how that message is defined by each party. and how educated the voter is about how the free market works vs talking points from each group.
No, he never said that. You are either just making stuff up or your comprehension skills are severely impaired. What he actually said was that if Biden ran, it would preserve two of the keys, thereby making it easier for the democrats to win. Do you understand the difference between your interpretation and what I just said?
And his Keys are clearly open to interpretation like 'no scandal' and others. Kamala and Joe have plenty of scandals. Like covering up Joe's year's long weekend at Bernie's presidency (just to name one). Afghan withdrawal, 8+ illegals, DOJ saying Joe knowingly took and shared classified info, etc.etc.etc... His son and the laptop being verified. The scandal column is absolutely up to opinion and interpretation. Also, the "Long Term economy" that most normal people feel, should be in the negative column for Dems. Nobody has liked this "economy" over the past 4 years.
@@MattMeww uh, huh...but Still had Biden as the predicted winner based on Keys up until the moment he dropped out. Doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Also, his Key's like "no scandal" are completely opinion based and not fact based.
@@keith9388 Sure. But it becomes rather obvious if something is a scandal or not in most cases. Most people here in this thread would likely agree that Watergate, for instance, was a huge scandal. It's just common sense
He forgets everything has gone wrong already , economy, energy crisis , inflation , foreign policies , border crisis which is a social disaster. There are all the keys we need to know. What are would it need to go wrong? Tell me You’re a democrat without telling me You’re a democrat!
Also, McCain wasn't seen then the way he is now. I think many respected him even then, but he was going up again Obama - that's was a hard mountain to climb - especially on the heals of 8 years of Bush. Palin definitely didn't help, but I don't think she hurt the ticket in a measurable way.
@@mikem3789 You'll need one in November when you claim the election was stolen again... yet Trump has never won the popular vote and is in a toilet spiral moment right now. Happy flushing. Such a con man, you been had buddy. So sad.
Trump is criticizing her race to get people to notice him, but he came out as white and is now orange. What is going on with him? Why does he keep lying?
Don’t lie, you were never going to vote for a democrat under any circumstances. Harris never lied, as Biden doesn’t have dementia. He is old and slow, but you can see that with your own eyes. No one said he was a 20 year old.
No, he's not even 9-1. He interprets these keys any way he wants. "Major Policy Change" goes to blue instead of red. WHAT??? Overturning Roe v Wade is a clear red win.
@@Cshizzle94 I understand that. But it is disingenuous to say Biden effected major policy change when he experienced such a seismic and historical loss like Roe.
Bro, you're still down in the national polling aggregate/avgs when Harris needs to be AT LEAST where Biden was in 2020 (when Biden won by less than 50K swing state votes). Harris is down in all the demographics polling avgs to where Biden was in 2020. If Harris isn't up by at least 4.5% nationally in the polls she has a less than 50% chance of winning the E.C.
Data doesn't care about your personal experience. Inflation has been consistently beneath 4% since June 2023. It was around 8% for most of 2022 but since January 2024 inflation has averaged 3.3% thus far in 2024.
@@RizzGyat-vi4ieif she wins and Im kinds thinking so...the war comes, the famine and all hell break loose. They say depopulation, that too. Wait! Not a maga cry, a country cry. In 2019 dream I saw war, Russians here and so much more. So what you want, is what you might get and then....
Probably because it creates MAGA tears😆I guess he would have been a great professor had he said Trump would win 😉. FOX NEWS will be dancing naked and quickly invited him in every crazy MAGA show they love to run
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character. #Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
@@abesapien9930major policy change has nothing to do with the supreme court, it has everything to do with broad policy changes from the previous administration, which they absolutely did. climate, infrastructure, so many changes. interestingly, it also has nothing to do with whether the policy is popular or not, just that changes were made
@@Splitboltxful For the record, I'm voting for Kamala. I'm not trying to defend T. But no policy changes were as seismic as the overturning of Roe, and that was a clear red win.
Hey Allen. I'll give you a nickel if you take off that wig on your head. I can never focus on what you are saying because that thing just grabs my attention.
He's right about how shameful and awful the Democrats treated their sitting president, Joe Biden. All those talks should have been in private. Very disrespectful. But, he's also right that Kamala will probably win. Vote blue to stop trump and P25.
For Pete's sake, leave this guy out of the News until after labor day, he already got it wrong with Biden, now he switches to Harris and we still listen to him? Come on, do we really need this now?
That's not how his system works (which picks the winning president based on 160 years of data and statistical analysis). You can read the summary and analysis on Wikipedia.
THE TRUMP JOKE…….. God said : There will be a Guardian Angel for everyone you meant in the past and everyone that you will meet in the future. TRUMP:If this is so why not let my Guardian Angel have a vacation on Cloud 9. God: There is no room ,Cloud 9 it is full of Seventh Heaven people. TRUMP: Maybe my Guardian Angel could fly above them and not land? He really needs a vacation… God: The others do not want him flying above them ,he's not that Holy it seems. TRUMP:God you can do all things ,why not let him land on this land? God: I am your Personal-Real -EState agent ,not your land real estate agent, Get Real, Man!!!!
@@josephfiege9576 He was in absolute panic mode for weeks over the prospect of Joe dropping out. Constantly making interview appearances. He KNEW that Harris was going to end up being the presumptive nominee. So what gives with all of the panicking??
@@billybob5337He thought the democrats would challenge Harris and have an open convention, which would turn a key and make Trump the presumptive winner. But that didnt happen so he’s not panicking.
@@moai123 Most of those elections happened in relatively normal times, which we've long departed from. Every sane person around the globe knows that 2020 was a stolen election. So we can't really credit him on that, unless he simply was basing it off of his knowledge that he knew the stunt they were going to pull. Which wasn't that hard, because people were predicting the ballot scheme MONTHS in advance.
Things are changing quickly.
How are those keys holding up now eh?
If he’s predicting that Kamala is going to win, he’s going to be wrong this year. Notice that he doesn’t say who is going to win, he said “if”. Nothing to see here.
This guy appears to have upset the maga hopeful. You know this guy is correct and Trump will lose again and it upsets you. There are many personal attacks against him here instead of addressing his findings, quite common for MAGA. Accept your loss now and it won't be so difficult in November.
He gets no love. He predicted for Trump in 2016 and he’s a solid left leaning person but he criticizes Dems and the nominee. I’m sure students tried to cancel him.
But how can you be so sure that we're even going to have an election in November?
Nah, not worried. He's never actually predicted anything that is quite like this election; He might have to make some adjustments after November if Trump wins. :)
Look up Kamala history. She is a Marxist communist.
It's funny how you Democrats were calling on Biden to pick a new running mate when he was still in the race because you thought that Kamala was a drag on the ticket and a liability. Now that he is out of the race and she is the presumptive frontrunner, you all are now acting like she walks on water even though you wanted Biden to get rid of her. What has changed? She is still the same unlikable person who didn't get a single primary vote in 2019 and who has had an approval rating in the 20s since becoming vp.
Allan,you are Great!
He is a partisan hack. Complete ignoring the bad state of economy and run with the Democrat talking points. His prediction will fail miserably this year
I will vote for Kamala
Oh no!!!😮
His whole argument is for the Popular Vote, it won't gauge the electoral vote. Harris still does not lead in Pennsylvania in actual polls! "But polls are wrong" he says. And then he's also wrong 😂😂
Just ignore the trolls. They get paid by responses and totally ignoring them is best, imho. : )
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character.
#Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
@@tiongcomonico You have never ever voted Republican. You are a true Dem, cannot tell the truth.
Vote Harris-Love professor Lichtman
The keys work.
Nice!! The conventions on my birthday!!
This man has called every election ..math doesn't lie...
He interprets these keys any way he wants. Overturning Roe v Wade was a clear red win for "Major Policy Change," not a blue win. I'm voting for Kamala btw.
@@abesapien9930that’s not how the major policy change key works at all. it has nothing to do with decisions by the supreme court, and everything to do with how the incumbent party changes the policies of the previous administration, which they absolutely did do.
it’s not even based on whether the policies are popular, nor is it a competition with the competing party. It’s very cut and dry, did they make major policy changes? Then the key is true
Unless he is 200 plus years old, he has not called all the elections. There are holes in his system, and he games it everytime. He did get Trump vs Clinton correct in 2016, that's the only reason I give him any cred.
@@abesapien9930 Thank you, he games the system. It's not a close system and only he can call the keys. Yes he has put a lot of time and effort into this and has cred to me. But I think there are to many variables this election and he may get it wrong, again.
The scroll on the bottom of the screen from this show referred to Lichtman as the “Nostradamus of polling”. His model has nothing to do with polling. These tv interviewers and shows are simply incapable of grasping what he is telling them. They are so tied to polling that they are not able to comprehend that polling is not predictive of election results.
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character.
#Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
The threat of social unrest around this election is absolutely scary.
I know when Harris loses there will be ally types of rioting like no other. Scary stuff for sure.
Wish the president would be picked vote by vote. Not the way it is done today. Not by the Electoral College.
but republicans usually lose the popular vote. The last Republican to have won a U.S. presidential election as well as the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. So... no you don't want it to be vote by vote, you need the jerrymandering to have a chance.
OK so you want to disband the Senate then too right? I mean, the core of the College is that BOTH the States AND the People have their say...gee juuuust like our legislative process (House and Senate). Care to try again?
@@RASAllusion All I want is for each vote to count. We the people.. should have the right to vote. Are you for Trump?
@@micheletravis9057we are a representative republic. Each county; state etc. votes as one. You lose representation when you get rid of the college and all smaller areas will lose all influence to major population centers. We need all people to have a voice.
Sad many follow Marxist ideas to get rid of our constitution and republic to turn us into a rule by mass society which fails everytime In history.
@@micheletravis9057trump lost, get over it
Just one thing … he didn’t predict the Biden’s withdrawal
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character.
#Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
He predicts the US elections. He doesn’t predict anything like a president deciding not to run for reelection. Only the election itself . You do know he predicted Trump would win in 2016. Trump even left him a note at his office afterwards. He is a brilliant historian and his keys are brilliant if you really look at them.
the final boss of political autism
LOL
What’s political autism lol
He is definitely not autistic nor intelligent. He twists the criteria to say anything he wants. He literally gives Kamala a blue key in "Major Policy Change." WHAT??? Roe v Wade was just overturned. That is a clear red win. There are several others where he completely ignores the facts. Btw I am voting for Kamala!
@@yunleung2631He has no idea.
Y’all were cheering for this guy when he predicted trump won back in 2016. Now yall are cowards for being pissed of that the predictions are wrong. 😭
Prof you are the font of all possible sanity wrt our political situation. Congratulations and thank you. Fred
Question: Will the Russian hostage swap turn the foreign policy success key blue? Definitely something to consider.
Good question. I've been wondering if/how the Afghanistan withdraw would affect this key.
@@willrowell3218 unfortunately I don't think the Afghanistan pullout turns the key favorably for Democrats or else it would have likely been leaning true rather than false on his metrics. Especially with the handling of the Israel/Gaza situation, I would say it definitely leans false on success, but the hostage swap might bring it into a tossup
On Lichtman’s you tube channel, he spent a lot of time discussing that on the day of the release, but didn’t reach a conclusion. IMO, the answer is no because it is not a big enough story and is already being buried by the media. It doesn’t have legs as a story.
Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, Israel-Iran... not good foreign policy when the world is burning.. US facing recession.. Trump took 2 keys
Here is the problem with the keys: There is a lot of subjectivity. For example, one could argue that Trump has quite a lot of charisma. He is certainly a sensation, whether you like him or not. The short term economy may prove to be a liability as there has been significant inflation in the last 2.5 years, and the manufacturing sector is contracting. There has been significant social unrest over the last several months, and likely to flare up again on college campuses this fall. Foreign/military policy has been a disaster (weak on deterrence, ineffective diplomacy, 2 major wars and the threat of a third in the Pacific). Professor has got a lot riding on this call, as he has become a familiar name. If he gets this election wrong, his credibility is shot.
Read his book. You don't understand how the keys work.
He could be right, but I won’t use it as a reason to not go vote. This emboldens me to go do so.
That's exactly what I thought. Nice to see I'm not the only one.
The American people did not want a Biden/Trump rematch. Biden wisely stepped back, and now the people have a clear choice between chaos (Trump) and a normal person (Harris.) The DJIA is at 40,000, unemployment all-time low. Most Americans are sick and tired of 45.
"Biden wisely stepped back." Um, no.......Biden was completely forced out. The donors literally froze the funds until he removed himself. And the fact that you consider Kamala a "normal person", has to be the funniest thing i've seen or read all week
And unemployment doesn't measure the people who have dropped OUT of the work force. It only factors in those who are "actively seeking". Labor participation rates are at all time lows. Inflation is at all time highs. Mortgages are at all time highs and gas has remained high. As well as illegal border crossings being at insanely historic all time highs. If "most Americans" were sick and tired of Trump, then you guys wouldn't be in a dog fight right now. And you sure as hell wouldn't need all of those illegal votes(you guys are the ones completely against voter ID laws. We know why.)
So Americans want a Trump/Biden rematch with a Biden clone who also hides in the basement and cant say anything that makes sense?
@@billybob5337 Trump's normal? Vance is normal? LOL!
@@john-e3o Have you listened to Trump lately? He has dementia. Vance is a complete phony.
I think key #5 is being horribly misread. While short term numbers look good, ask 100 random people if they THINK the economy is in good condition. I think that the public perception of the economy is more important than the raw stats. People’s finances are suffering. The economy is the number one issue in all polling which would suggest that people are concerned about it.
Worst rug ever
Where do I find the polls?
HOLLA BEBE PEACE ✌️
She won't get my vote
She'll get mine
This the same guy that sad Biden was in good shape by the way
He has a strong argument that his formula has actually been 100% accurate so far, given the Supreme Court decided the election in 2000.
He's the bomb! And I do beg to differ that Harris/Walz has off the chart charisma. They're not incumbents but they still got it
Charisma?! Lol
I'll read your books. I just didn't know about you till about 2 months ago. And money is extremely tight right now.
This guy has long term and short term economy as favoring democrats? What economy is he talking about? Biden’s economy has been a colossal failure compared to Trump’s. I think he is off on this one
Biden's economy is actually a roaring success that is fueling the world economy.
So they lost a key, they improve the other keys
The flaw is when the VP or President of the incumbent party runs and they turn only 5 keys, he has been wrong twice in that situation. It's a blind spot for his system since there is really only 3 times this has happened in history and he was correct only one of those times.
1888 Cleveland lost to Benjamin Harrison - He would have picked Cleveland with 5 keys turned but Harrison won
2000 Gore lost to George W. Bush - again he picked Gore with 5 keys turned and Bush won
Two if you count incumbency charisma. And the economy. That is another 2, short and long term. As the charmless Harris says, inflation? That is when prices go up, and food costs more. Thanks for the insight and the policy solution. Allan Lickman must think it is fantastic. Everyone else think it is idiotic.
I did some homework….and watched the 2020 election documentary. I think I know why Trump lost so bad.
Correct me if I’m wrong……but this is what I gathered
2020 Key systems
Trump lost by a landslide…..because he lost 8 of the 13 keys.
He lost the long term economy key💙
He lost the midterm key💙
He lost the social unrest key💙
He lost the scandal key💙
He lost the short time economy key💙
He lost the charismatic incumbent key💙
He lost the Uncharismatic challenger key💙
He lost the policy change key💙
Trump only kept 5 of the keys.
He retained the Primary contest 🔑
He retained the incumbent key 🔑
He retained the military success key🔑
He retained the no foreign military failure key 🔑
He retained the no third party key 🔑
I’m still trying to learn Litman’s key system…….Gonna have to watch a lot of documentaries on every election…..I got my work cut out for me.
actually, he maintained the strong short term economy key, he kept the policy change key, he ketp the uncharismatic challenger key. i'll give you covid for disrupting the long term economy, but before that america was going strong and inflation was not a concern in any reasonably minded citizen. just a reminder for the policy key, there just needs to be policy change, whether good or bad. but for the keys kept, you got them all correct.
but you may be asking, if trump had all the keys, why did he still lose, and why so badly? well, it's the same reason why almost all the bellwether counties and both bellwether states predicted trump, but he still lost. it's the same reason why all voting irregularities were only hurting one candidate and not the other. it's the same reason why they had to "close" ballot counting areas, but then still kept counting while nobody was looking. it's the same reason why benford's law was broken. given the facts without inherit media bias, it all points to the data being manipulated.
Also, lichtman is biased. he is holding out hope that kamala will somehow win legitimately and is tricking himself into thinking that people will genuinely believe the economy is doing great based on gdp growth, not realizing that everyone who isn't the top 10% is suffering, whether they realize it or not. also this is the first video i've seen where he's made the keys for military success/failure false for biden/kamala and i've been checking once or twice a month.
Lotus (translation for Kamala) for Potus
How many false keys do you think the current election is at right now?
Profesor Lichtman broke records this year with interviews. 😮😮😅😅😅
🙏❤️
13 keys on hair deception.
this guy loves to hear his own voice
At least he doesn’t paint himself orange to assuage his tiny ego.
I don’t particularly like his personality, but his personality has no bearing on whether or not his system works. All the evidence says it does, so despite his ego I listen to what he has to say
@@abvincent12😂😂
He’s a fucking professor. What do you expect?
I would too if I predicted correctly since the 80s! Stop with the MAGA tears, it doesn't suit your guys!
Did he predict Biden Out and Kamala in? No? Imagine that.
ENOUGH OF THIS NONSENSE.
@@RASAllusion he didn’t hv the keys for that…this guy is over rated….he didn’t believed in polls,so why should I believed in his nonsensical ,keys…. My keys r common sense policies…
he just claims to predict the winner of the general election, not who the candidates will be.
it is not nonsense.
This guy is a complete fool. Almost all of the elections in the past forty years were predictable. He’s a left wing ideologue, nothing more
It's only nonsense because who you want to win Isn't the predicted winner
Kamala 2024
President Harris 2024. Yes!
His prediction is off key...
I don’t agree, but that was funny 😊
Vote Trump!!!
HARRIS 2024!!! I Like Presidents who AREN'T TRAITORS and CRIMINALS!!!!
Criminal is the Biden/Harris Administration who lied and covered up for a man that is unfit for the Presidency and they KEEP hiding him. The Biden/Harris Administration has been nothing but secrets and Americans LAST. Harris's slogan is really "WE WON'T GO BACK to putting Americans first".
It could happen, but not a time anyone would really want to be President of the U.S. . If she wins, Kamala will be leading us as WW3 begins along with Putin, Xi, Kim Jong Un, Iran... in the next term. Does she really want that problem?
Harris has overseen a literal invasion of our southern border. There is your Treason right there.
It's funny how you Democrats were calling on Biden to pick a new running mate when he was still in the race because you thought that Kamala was a drag on the ticket and a liability. Now that he is out of the race and she is the presumptive frontrunner, you all are now acting like she walks on water even though you wanted Biden to get rid of her. What has changed? She is still the same unlikable person who didn't get a single primary vote in 2019 and who has had an approval rating in the 20s since becoming vp.
Me too. Trump lied to the American ppl 31000 tines during his presidency. Fact checked. More than any other president, more than any leader of any country. What a feat. Mr. Trump. He should be so proud.
Alan.
SHAVE !!!
i have no idea what you're smiling about... we're in big trouble if that's the case
He doesnt even go over the keys with Trump. What a joke
trump supporters would scream fake news anyway so what's he point
He doesn’t have to. He looks at the incumbent party the keys either are for or against the sitting party. He inadvertently does go over the keys for Trump because any key that goes against the Democratic Party is a positive key for the republican.
the keys always go against the incumbent party. that’s just how the system works
Also, his Keys like "no scandal" are completely up to opinion. The "Long Term Economy" key, most normal people have disliked this Long Term Economy...that key should not be Blue.
@@keith9388 depends how that message is defined by each party. and how educated the voter is about how the free market works vs talking points from each group.
Didn’t this guy say in the last video…and I quote “Biden must run for democrats to win. It’s vital and the only way they will win”
Nope. He never said it. Look it up.
No, he never said that. You are either just making stuff up or your comprehension skills are severely impaired. What he actually said was that if Biden ran, it would preserve two of the keys, thereby making it easier for the democrats to win. Do you understand the difference between your interpretation and what I just said?
No, he predicted Trump BEFORE Harris became the nominee. : )
@@reneelibby4885 He hasn’t made a prediction for anyone at any point in the 2024 potus election cycle and said he would after the dnc convention.
Lichtman is a key BS artist😂
Who has been right every single time so far. But being correct w the math or the facts no longer matters to at least half this country now.
@@minutemeditations14Allhe’s a cry baby maga
@@minutemeditations14AllNope. Got 2000 wrong. COPE.
... did he predicted biden will drop out ?!?!
His keys do not work that way..he's not psychic. He uses his 13 keys to determine the next president based on each parties candiates..
And his Keys are clearly open to interpretation like 'no scandal' and others. Kamala and Joe have plenty of scandals. Like covering up Joe's year's long weekend at Bernie's presidency (just to name one). Afghan withdrawal, 8+ illegals, DOJ saying Joe knowingly took and shared classified info, etc.etc.etc... His son and the laptop being verified. The scandal column is absolutely up to opinion and interpretation. Also, the "Long Term economy" that most normal people feel, should be in the negative column for Dems. Nobody has liked this "economy" over the past 4 years.
He did, said 60% chance he will drop out
@@MattMeww uh, huh...but Still had Biden as the predicted winner based on Keys up until the moment he dropped out. Doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Also, his Key's like "no scandal" are completely opinion based and not fact based.
@@keith9388 Sure. But it becomes rather obvious if something is a scandal or not in most cases. Most people here in this thread would likely agree that Watergate, for instance, was a huge scandal. It's just common sense
Love you Kamala!!!! Win Kamala Win!!!!!
All
He forgets everything has gone wrong already , economy, energy crisis , inflation , foreign policies , border crisis which is a social disaster. There are all the keys we need to know. What are would it need to go wrong? Tell me You’re a democrat without telling me You’re a democrat!
What about Sara Palin? 😂
I think McCain wan not predicted to win so it want an issue
Also, McCain wasn't seen then the way he is now. I think many respected him even then, but he was going up again Obama - that's was a hard mountain to climb - especially on the heals of 8 years of Bush. Palin definitely didn't help, but I don't think she hurt the ticket in a measurable way.
She'll elected the day John McCain comes back from the dead😆🤣🤣
Trump needs to go away and the Republican Party needs to rebuild itself and get some new ideas and faces. The Trump thing is so over
@@nathanonearth no democrats can go. Trump 2024
@@kabc Dude is a mess - we're all tired of the self absorbed drama - later Trump
You’ll get over it. Get a therapy dog.
@@mikem3789 You'll need one in November when you claim the election was stolen again... yet Trump has never won the popular vote and is in a toilet spiral moment right now. Happy flushing. Such a con man, you been had buddy. So sad.
Trump is criticizing her race to get people to notice him, but he came out as white and is now orange. What is going on with him? Why does he keep lying?
Still delusional about Kamala and his intelligence is very questionable
After she lied for 3 years about Joe's Health no way i would vote for her.
Don’t lie, you were never going to vote for a democrat under any circumstances. Harris never lied, as Biden doesn’t have dementia. He is old and slow, but you can see that with your own eyes. No one said he was a 20 year old.
Will you don’t matter
you never were going to - be honest
This guy acts like he’s 100-0. He’s 9-1 and most of those were gimies. I know nothing about politics and the only one I missed was 2016.
No, he's not even 9-1. He interprets these keys any way he wants. "Major Policy Change" goes to blue instead of red. WHAT??? Overturning Roe v Wade is a clear red win.
And I'm voting for Kamala by the way. I'm not disagreeing bc it doesn't favor or not favor my candidate.
@@abesapien9930 the key is for major policy change under and from the incumbent party (Biden administration).
To be fair, 1988 and 2016 were hard electiona to predict and his keys got it right
@@Cshizzle94 I understand that. But it is disingenuous to say Biden effected major policy change when he experienced such a seismic and historical loss like Roe.
The flood of MAGA tears in November will be so delicious.
Bro, you're still down in the national polling aggregate/avgs when Harris needs to be AT LEAST where Biden was in 2020 (when Biden won by less than 50K swing state votes). Harris is down in all the demographics polling avgs to where Biden was in 2020. If Harris isn't up by at least 4.5% nationally in the polls she has a less than 50% chance of winning the E.C.
I know right. Ukraine got another $2B last week but those tears will be amazing.
Well these keys are based on opinions. And trumps leading in the polls. Which he also tends to over perform
I completely do not trust polls.
We'll be dancing and celebrating their MAGA tears like we did in 2020😅😅😅😂
Number one B.S
🎉🎉🎉
I predict a bad hairpiece
it’s a really poor ‘syrup’ - (cockney rhyming slang - syrup of fig = wig )
Everyone has their own unique style, and we should respect each other’s choices. Let’s focus on positive and supportive interactions instead.
That was a brilliant comment!
Such an important contribution to the discourse at such a crucial time in American history.
Professor does not care inflation.
Data doesn't care about your personal experience. Inflation has been consistently beneath 4% since June 2023. It was around 8% for most of 2022 but since January 2024 inflation has averaged 3.3% thus far in 2024.
This man is liar
😅😅😅😅😅😅
LOL
Grammar is helpful. Try it.
Haha he’s got it and will stay 💯.
Why less likely to cause massive widespread social unrest?
Love it⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
You believe this nonsense?
@@donmezzanatto8607he’s predicted 10/10 so cry maga cry 😢
@@RizzGyat-vi4ie SEE YOU IN NOVEMBER!
@@RizzGyat-vi4ieif she wins and Im kinds thinking so...the war comes, the famine and all hell break loose. They say depopulation, that too. Wait! Not a maga cry, a country cry. In 2019 dream I saw war, Russians here and so much more. So what you want, is what you might get and then....
What about the economy key??
As of today we just lost another key: Short Term Economy. Looks like Trump's going to win,
🤞🏻
remember, this guy was just saying 3 weeks ago that Biden was gonna beat Trump. So I wouldn’t put too much stock into his statements.
not only that. But he said Biden was their best chance by far.
well, we'll never know, do we
He literally said he was their best chance before biden dropped out a day after lmao 😂😂😂
@@billybob5337he stands by that too, incumbency is one of the keys
Didn’t this guy say in the last video…and I quote “Biden must run for democrats to win. It’s vital and the only way they will win”
Don't believe. Don't insult Americans. No one wants 4 more years of the same sh...t
They lost the incumbency key so doesnt it put the race a little closer?
it does, but we’re still only expecting 5 down so looks like she’ll still win
Clinton was down 5 keys and won huge victories. Even if it’s 8-5 that doesn’t have any baring on the size of the win.
The liberal has spoken
I can't stand this dude
I bet you'd applaud him if he predicted a Trump win
Probably because it creates MAGA tears😆I guess he would have been a great professor had he said Trump would win 😉. FOX NEWS will be dancing naked and quickly invited him in every crazy MAGA show they love to run
@@Anonymous-hz3zz it's more the hair and his low testosterone that do it for me tbh
Well you would lose the bet
He doesn't want to say Kamala Harris will win.
He said allready in his TH-cam Chanel. She gonna win
He said it already on his TH-cam Chanel
#NOTOTRUMP! I love this great country of ours; as a Republican for over 5 decades, I CANNOT VOTE for trump & any of his cult members. He has divided the country with his lies & rotten character.
#Trumpathreattotheconstitution&worldorder.
This guy reminds me of the guys on wall street who think they've figured it all out, until it all falls apart.
He literally gives the Dems the "Major Policy Change" key after they lost Roe vs. Wade. His interpretations of his own keys are a joke.
@@abesapien9930major policy change has nothing to do with the supreme court, it has everything to do with broad policy changes from the previous administration, which they absolutely did. climate, infrastructure, so many changes.
interestingly, it also has nothing to do with whether the policy is popular or not, just that changes were made
@@Splitboltxful For the record, I'm voting for Kamala. I'm not trying to defend T. But no policy changes were as seismic as the overturning of Roe, and that was a clear red win.
@@abesapien9930you’ve misunderstood the key, it means a stark change in policy from the previous administration, that’s all.
It was the supreme court who made the decision. But it's gonna be treated like a major policy change
Looks like farting orange got a dead cat bounce from the ear incident
Why is he wearing the Trump wig?
This guy is a phony
Wonder about 1984
💃🏻💙
He will be wrong this time!!!!
People said that in 2016 and 2020. Lol. He was right both times.
He;s a Dem for sure
And you must be a MAGA person. Dr Lichtman knows what he is talking about. You will see on Nov 5 when Harris wins.
he’s very open about being a democrat, but he has predicted a roughly equal number of republican wins as he has democratic wins.
He said trump would win in 2016 so stop crying
1:11
(not that joe biden fufilled that to begin with what with supporting a G and being so unpopularly old)
Hey Allen. I'll give you a nickel if you take off that wig on your head. I can never focus on what you are saying because that thing just grabs my attention.
He’s delusional
Let's go, Trump 🇺🇸
She has momentum and growth and Trump is making many mistakes so at this point I’d rather be her than Trump win 2 months to go - Kamala 2024
All that momentum and growth and she’s still trailing Trump. Not very impressive.
He's right about how shameful and awful the Democrats treated their sitting president, Joe Biden. All those talks should have been in private. Very disrespectful. But, he's also right that Kamala will probably win. Vote blue to stop trump and P25.
For Pete's sake, leave this guy out of the News until after labor day, he already got it wrong with Biden, now he switches to Harris and we still listen to him? Come on, do we really need this now?
That's not how his system works (which picks the winning president based on 160 years of data and statistical analysis). You can read the summary and analysis on Wikipedia.
He did not predict Biden would drop out
@jaye8872 well he should have. The clues were all there for him to know.
THE TRUMP JOKE……..
God said : There will be a Guardian Angel for everyone you meant in the past and everyone that you will meet in the future.
TRUMP:If this is so why not let my Guardian Angel have a vacation on Cloud 9.
God: There is no room ,Cloud 9 it is full of Seventh Heaven people.
TRUMP: Maybe my Guardian Angel could fly above them and not land? He really needs a vacation…
God: The others do not want him flying above them ,he's not that Holy it seems.
TRUMP:God you can do all things ,why not let him land on this land?
God: I am your Personal-Real -EState agent ,not your land real estate agent, Get Real, Man!!!!
Reference to hair ...sometimes bigger isn't better 😂
Everyone has their own unique style, and we should respect each other’s choices. Let’s focus on positive and supportive interactions instead.
"No Third Party" That goes to blue? WHAT??? RFK is polling at lowest 3%, and up to 10%. This system is utterly laughable.
It has to be consistently at 10% for months. You clearly don’t understand his system and are just butthurt. Cope.
Now that is one helluva wig there, Allan!
That is some very goofy hair.
What a strange hair cut
He was saying the Dems will lose if Joe steps down, has he changed?
He didn’t say that. He said it would turn a key. However, it’s still in Harris’s favor according to his keys.
@@josephfiege9576 He was in absolute panic mode for weeks over the prospect of Joe dropping out. Constantly making interview appearances. He KNEW that Harris was going to end up being the presumptive nominee. So what gives with all of the panicking??
@@billybob5337He thought the democrats would challenge Harris and have an open convention, which would turn a key and make Trump the presumptive winner. But that didnt happen so he’s not panicking.
@@billybob5337 he was not. He was saying the democrats need to get together and support Harris as they were going to throw Biden under the bus.
@@shervin8019The Democratic convention hasn’t been held yet.
Hey NewsNation try calling the Orangutan that perdicts the elections next! I put more faith in the Orangutan that this guy.
Has the orangutan gotten it right 9/10 times over the past 40 years? I'm going to go with no.
@@moai123 Most of those elections happened in relatively normal times, which we've long departed from. Every sane person around the globe knows that 2020 was a stolen election. So we can't really credit him on that, unless he simply was basing it off of his knowledge that he knew the stunt they were going to pull. Which wasn't that hard, because people were predicting the ballot scheme MONTHS in advance.