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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ส.ค. 2024
- At IdeaFestival 2014, Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan provides deep insight and context to the rapidly changing global scene and its potential impact on international business, finance and the US. By dissecting global demographic, cultural, political and economic trends, Zeihan paints a fascinating picture of what the interconnected geopolitical landscape could look like in the not too distant future.
90% of what he said already happened, is happening or is extremely like to happen. This man is a genius
He said this in 2014 and stated the Russians wouldn't be able to mount a campaign in 5 years, 2019. This is happening in 2022. He stated it was due to their 50 year old engineers beginning to dying out due to the male mortality age of 59. Lots of Russian men drink themselves to death by 40, which isn't going to happen to well educated engineers. He also states Russia's draft aged men would be too greatly reduced, which they went anyways after his do or die by date.
@@jestice75 a difference of 3 years is actually pretty good in the realm of geopolitics. Timelines tend to be decades off if they ever happen in the first place.
@@jestice75 You forgot to mention covid, that changed the timing of many things.
Yet with ukraine and corona.... yeah it changed the timelines on alot.
@@jestice75 Trump told Putin that if he moved into Ukraine anymore, something bad would happen, so Putin waited. Then COVID was released. When puppet Biden-su got into the WH with a rigged election, comrade Xi told Putin to wait until after the Olympics, because China needs to bolster their image internationally. As soon as the Olympics were over, Putin finally launched and the campaign has been lackluster at best.
Key problems Russia has had:
* Rail freight transportation
* Military leadership
* Coordination
* Logistics
* Conscripts with substandard training who were lied to and told they were on exercises
* Limited ability to even bury or account for their own dead
* Lack of air superiority, even though Ukrainian Air Force has been severely reduced
* Cargo ships turned into fire balls in-port
* Ships on-fire in the Black Sea that fled from the port
* Putin announced Phase 1 is complete, back to focusing on Eastern Ukraine region
Now let’s look at their energy industry. Remember what Zaihan said about petroleum engineers? Guess who Russia has relied on even since the Soviet Times? Foreign experts. Haliburton and Slumberger have been providing the technical expertise and tooling to extract from the permafrost fields in Siberia, and now they’re out.
Just saw this guy on Rogan in 2023. I came back here to see what his calls (historical trend, geo stats, and logic driven analysis) were 10 years ago to see how they played out. I’m very impressed. I just hope world leaders are leveraging people who think like this.
Hats off to you sir, this method of analysing analysers by looking at how they predict in the past and that whether it unraveled in the future is ...well rational and wise.
I'm excited to see how his BTC call from Rogan plays out.
Dude has had a pretty consistent message and lens. Either that means he is right or blind. Still more to see.
Why are there so many comments on his JRE clip saying "check this guy in 10 years" as if he's made bad predictions? I'm guessing those people are from China lol
@@everythingiswonderful.ever8651 Most aren't no. They're just the types who favor China because of misguided positions, that or because they're blinded by their fervent hate for the US. It's a bit like the daughter who hates her father and runs away, but into the arms of a guy who over time, uses her to ruin her father and then rapes and kills her.
That's an analogy of the paradigm.
Whose from caspian report?
At least a quarter of us should be!
Myself
Hell ye
♟💪🏽
Yeiah
How about Covert Cabal?
"you probably gonna see the Brits doing some currency manipulation"😂 on point!
Absolutely, manipulation into BITCOIN!!!
Watching this today in ‘22 is like watching prophecy.
It’s wild man
demographics are destiny. He focuses on the fundementals, so the details may be fuzzy but generally he is right.
Sure, in ‘24 he looks like a clown
@@arturallay8116 Explain.
@@ChipmunkRapidsMadMan1869 seriously? NATO is finished, G7 is irrelevant, the dollar is in an irreversible decline….
Great Research, Peter Nostradamus. I caught this guy during the Pandemic and I point him out to anyone who can speak on Geo-Politics, which is unfortunately too few. The demographic & historical knowledge of other countries is spot on.
No it isn't a great research he made many mistakes.
@@pedroSilesia what specifically makes it bad research?
I haven't found anyone to debate these topics
Nostradamus? The man is smart, don't get me wrong, but he's not a prophet. (I mean, neither was the real Nostradamus, but....) The "Green" bit was certainly off. (Unless Trump signed some Green deal I'm not aware of, lol.) Odessa didn't break away. Belarus isn't going to be taken over. And most of all, Russia isn't going to try anything with regards to NATO land. C'mon, now. That's a World War. He's acting like Russia is going to storm NATO land to close land gaps. "In four years, this [Eastern Europe] is someone else's problem." Well....
Alberta breaking away? Something like 1/5 of the province actually wants that. Mexico "THE economy to watch"? Mexico as the fastest growing economy for the next half century? Mexico's GDP growth rate: #89 as of right now.
Again, the guy is intelligent. I'm not saying I know better than him overall. I'm saying - me, with the benefit of 8 years on this video - he wasn't a prophet. I give him passes mostly because, well, COVID changed a few things.
@@augustuslxiii all one has to do is study patterns. But which patterns?
watching in 2023 to see how right Peter was almost a decade ago
god damn he was right about almost everything
Well, Ukraine didn't roll over and the US didn't stand by. England left the EU. NATO is, for now, strengthened.
um no hes been saying this exact same pitch for 8 YEARS!!!! His deglobalization pitch never happened and never will.
@@losthighway4840 he’s not the only one warning of deglobalization and it’s not that far fetched considering supply issues post pandemic. Let’s see what happens when countries start to run out of food and then converge back here.
@@plstewaf3 how's it deglobalization? All the existing supply chains are still in place, especially electronics.
AND in 2023 the Russian military fell apart. And maybe in 2023 Putin is destroyed 🤔
Wow he absolutely called Venezuela
Like hunting in a zoo.
He called a lot of things with unbelievable accuracy. And also explains something I have been wondering about.
Basically the US does not need the world but the world's needs the US, that's why a lot if the developed world is rushing blindly into the cult of globalism. And the US has had the good sense to divorce itself from the fiasco.
Also explains why China is now suddenly the global "darling". The rest of the world sees that the US is more and more self sufficient and so they are looking for a "partner" to align with, particularly economically speaking.
I think this is a great analysis of the board as it is. A country is only as good as this people who live in it.
@@mashotoshaku Abandoning globalism sounds like a great idea, until you disrupt half the planet and people start fleeing their homes with nothing but the clothes on their back.
building the wall makes sense all trump needs to do limit Travel to the US 40% of illegals overstated Their visas In the US And we be able to survive. Chaos begins we get a vast ocean protecting us the only thing the US we need to do is protect its own borders and maybe select few countries
There's another video where he predicted Xi being dictator for life for China, scarily accurate.
To all those throwing shade at Peter in the comments, I agree he shouldn't be treated like some Jesus but you could just simply call out what you disagree with and acknowledge what he got correct. It won't kill you to do so.
Its called manners, something we forgot since social media started.
Watching this in 2023 you realize just how smart he is.
holy prophecy this dude nailed everything on the head 8 years in advance
This talk is like poison to all those who still think that peace and respect in this world come from the UN Human Rights Council and through peaceful demonstrations, instead of good old trade. I used to be one of them.
The un human rights council is a joke
Ace Nelson bait
i hope your still alive your needed. You bring sanity to this world.
It comes from power my dude
Humans don't change - "I drink your milkshake". We are all murderous animals and "society" has done little to change us.
Brilliant. Love this guy. He knows his stuff. Wish more people were this smart.
Read his new book, which just came out in June 2022
This is happening now…this guy is a genius.
i just came across his video right now during the war in the ukraine .. all coming together
As a Pole: [chuckles] I'm in danger
This video aged like fine wine
so he will try to conquer as much europe as he can?
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims. r
Tanty Melbourne
18 June 2023
This guy is Genius ❤️💪
Overall, this has aged very, very well. The ability of Ukraine to recover and re-invent their military (with a lot of help from the West) clearly caught him off guard, but he's got a lot of good company there. The intersection of unanticipated Russian incompetence and unprecedented effective EU/Western cooperation made for quite a black swan event.
If the market is strong I dont see the avg retiree putting everything into cash esp now when inflation is high since you net per year is a loss since your buying power is less-not saying it is in agressive equities but its will go into dividen stock and they can spend the dividend money things like Coke-Cola
@@jeff58436 are you mentally ill?
@@jeff58436 😂🤣😆😁😄😂😃😀😂😂
22:27 "Sudden-onset shortages...that don't end."
Predicted in 2014, this is why i watch Peter Zeihan's videos.
This video aged very well:
Ongoing trade war between China vs Us
Russia recently seized Ukrainian ships escalating tension
sanctions on Iran which prompted Iran to threatened to close the Persian Gulf
It is odd overall, a lot of his predictions DID happen within various levels of deviation outside of outside context problems and things you can NEVER truly predict...
Aaron Neumann, if you understand the ultimate causes, the proximate causes will find themselves.
@@kokofan50 Nope, there are things here that basically are OOCs that happened over the last five-ish years... particularly in the cyber and meme warfare department.
Don't forget Venezuela prediction.
Quite the opposite. He predicted Russian capturing many, up to 11, countries . Expected problems in Canadian political system. Completely missed the drug legalization effect on drug war. Never predicted US vs China war. Half expected US to work with Iran to destroy its neighbors. Expected Sweden goes nuclear, Japan re-militrization. One can go on and on.
These predictions are very hard and if he was even half correct, he would be the richest person on the planet! Instead he makes money by selling books.
Looking back on this in mid-2018 is interesting. Although the effect of shale was slightly less than he predicted, many of his predictions have come true. The biggest one being on Venezuela, who had only just started to decline when this lecture was given.
Well we are now exporting oil
Us was at one time in 2018 was the world's largest oil producer.. so was he ?
Their exports are only growing, the Americans are on track to be a lead energy exporter tha will dominate energy markets while also being independent of markets by 2025 which doesn't actually bode well for the world as what exactly happens to the world if the US decides to withdraw militarily politically diplomatically etc and attempt to declare a European style neutrallity non interference policy as opposed to the status quo where they guarantee free trade for anyone regardless of if its Canada or a tiny place like San Marino or Malta, the possibility of the world finding itself in a scenario where a single small nation could seize a local area of land or sea routes and completely fuck up trade, for instance Iran cutting off the Straights of Hormuz in the middle east and over night stopping all oil flows, who would stop them? If the US would not then who would guarantee Europes oil shipments or Japans, what if China became very unhappy and decided to park themselves in the region to guarantee their supplies in response to a crisis.
LEGALIZE DRUGS.
@@thirstyserpent1079 Now if we could only get the courage to cut back on some military spending and cut the national debt while saving Social Security and Medicare.
Going back to watch these lectures and, yeah, they're prophetic.
I love this man more and more. Been trying to find and listen to him ever since Whatifalthist mentioned a book of his and what it predicted. It's amazing to listen to him 7 years ago tell EXACTLY what happened. Almost to the year.
Same
I don’t know how I found him, but very happy I did.
Exact thing I was doing
Dude bringing up whatifalthist as a reason hurts your case. That youtuber is the worst predictor on the platform. The dude will have all the info right in front of him and then come up with the dumbest conclusions from them all but say it with such righteousness.
Fellow man of culture
As an Albertan I find this absolutely fascinating. I’ve been a separatist since I was in high school. Canada doesn’t respect us, all they want is our taxes. We gain almost nothing from being a part of Canada. If we were a US state we would have state rights which would allow us to keep our money and develop our economy more directly, as well as having greater access to international markets.
I recall this getting traction 2015-2016sh, and I knew that Alberta anger would also reach a tipping point since I was certain Quebec would kind of one day be a bit overbearing ( I support there independence but come fucking on Quebec) and it would just tick more people off in Alberta.
We'd love to have ya.
Here's the thing. I can never be an Indian. I can never be Chinese. I can never be German. I can never be Brazilian. ANYONE can be an American.
We'd love to have ya.
@@cristy7381 Well said. Every American should remember and be reminded that this one principal is the key ingredient that makes America Great. Not great again but forever great! Forever moving forward!
You can become Australian Cristy.
"In 5 years Venezuela will have destroyed it's own market"
Fuck son. You hit that one right on the head. Not just that. A lot of your predictions have been on point.
Listen to how effortlessly he talks about so many varied topics. Only a well-read genius can do that
@@vibratoryuniverse308 We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp Zeihan is also predicted total collapse and dissolution of China by 2030. Judging from those 6 areas where he is an "expert" in, as you say, it seems so. China is so fucked.
I agree with him 100%...
I've always said that America's worst enemy is America itself...
Very informational and entertaining. It's a pity he didn't have time for those other topics as well. It just confirms the old wisdom: demography drives history.
So...we should annex Alberta then the rest of Canada.
Then denoune Russia for annexing Ukraine. Those were our free peoples you stole there!
Andrew Stansbury I mean...if they would like to join Id be down to party...
Just Alberta. The demography everywhere else is looking unfun.
Don't try to annex Alberta. You likely aren't expecting cruise missiles from the snow. Just saying haha. But it would be nice if you paid a fair price for all our oil. If you took a trillion out of the defend Saudi budget we could build enough oil plants you could have 20 dollar oil forever. Just saying haha.
At the current rate, having looked at those rates of Albertan's being taxed while having a small population but all the resources and money in order to keep the french part of Canada quiet and happy I wouldn't be surprised if The region at some point in the future as economies get progressively more fucked up and the U.S. disengages fucking up oil prices which will in turn mean less revenue for Canada while at the same time they're population continues to grow meaning less money per person decided fuck this why should we put up with this? Why not leave?
Watching this in 2023 is terrifying…
No one has ever talked about these things in the way this guy did ever before. He's like the first guy to invent the letter R.
You need to show the powerpoint, not just the speaker.
Listening to him makes me feel better for my nieces, nephews and there children. Great presentation.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp Indeed. Not to mention, that this is only one position, one view, that benefits only USA. There's way too many people, who wouldn't like that point of view.
@@Adrian-rb4qp he predicted the war… His point is demographics have to be healthy for an empire and he doesn’t see it in China or Russia… He is looking at data
@@cooldudecs He is mainly cherrypicking the part of the data that support his view. Demographics of the US don't look too pretty either for instance. About the war: many experts and even my grandma predicted it: the USA showed weakness by electing Biden and the Afghanistan-desaster and Ukraine pushed hard for NATO while increasing shelling in donbas and even hosting US-biolabs.
Also if you listen closely Zeihan said Russia had to move within the next 5 years - that was 8 years ago.
@@Adrian-rb4qp I agree. He is jumping to conclusions on so little information. For instance: "China's population will drop - that means they will disappear completely". Really? Even with 700 million they still double the US. And why so certain they will rather die geopolitically in order to take care of their old generation? Isn't it rather "country before individual" over there? One medium problem is enough for him to dismiss a whole country.
Oversimplifying complex issues - that's the source of his humour, but it really takes from his quality.
I think there’s three things that he couldn’t have predicted: Covid, Trump, and supply chain issues
He’s spot on with everything else. It’s eerie listening to him talk about Russia, Iran and China 8 years ago
I watched this to check how the prognosis holds up in 4 years from the presentation. As noone expected the main wildcard - Mr. DT of USA at that point.
It's still (very) scarily acurate...
watch his more recent videos
Trump was a wild card that accelerated some of the predictions, and slowed others.
Long live the American Republic
A republic, If you can keep it.
The Republic is dead. Long live the Empire
All hail God Emperor Trump
1776 - 2026
Sounds good to me. I just wish they could go back to making an effort to create the illusion that we have a say in what happens.
I have read his book "the Accidental Superpower" three times now and find it a fascinating read. It is unfortunate that this video cannot compare to the book as Mr. Zeihan is forced to just hit some of the highlights without any sort of explanation of how he reached these ideas. The book is much better. If any of this video intrigues you, go to the library and get his book. Will the world change the way he writes it will? I really hope not (and the author said the same thing!) but his reasoning makes good sense of what has happened and what will happen in the future, like it or not.
Really? You actually finished one entire book? Good boy.
SHUT THE BORDER.
The book is always better than the movie 😀
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp ALWAYS DOUBT. But all ive seen Peter claim that he uses to make these 'bold' models is Geography, Demographics, and Energy. Simple, but seems to have been forgotten in the Information Age. I think he is wrong about Shale, though it may play a larger role later. Nat Gas may be a big thing and he kinda ignores Nuclear, which is very quietly making VERY big moved now.
Watching this is fascinating because no one even considered the possibility of a global pandemic.
I don't consider it now. He covers it under the weird stuff will happen and then we'll get used to it
Not only is he right he is enjoyable, a good entertainer
Zeihan often lays a bit heavy into the theatrics. But damn, can't deny that he's got a pretty good batting average at predicting things.
2018 Dirt Cheap Gas. Removing Troops from Middle East. @ 55 mins France "colorful" prediction... This guy is good.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.a
The prediction of Russia invading Ukraine would have been even more accurate in the timing base if COVID haven't slow down international politics
And if Trump hadn’t been President 2017-2021. Trump threatened Putin with something, and Putin didn’t move beyond his Obama-years advances. Meanwhile, Trump pumped Javelins into the Ukraine by the thousands as a deterrent. I’m not sure if Putin’s advisors fed him dismissive capabilities data and talked up their roof armor on tanks. Now they have 2019 vehicles and combat systems, including 318 tanks, 232 AFVs, 307 IFVs, 79 APCs, 13 MRAPs, 66 IMVs, 12 mobile comms stations, 61 engineering vehicles, 63 ATGMs, 42 towed artillery pieces, 24 MANPADs, 60 self-propelled artillery pieces, 36 MRLs, 17 fixed wing aircraft, 35 helicopters, 16 UAVs, 2 trains, and 651 trucks/jeeps/vehicles.
in his book he recommended the year 2022 as last year that Russia would do it. Hahah
He did think Ukraine would fall quickly.....but to be fair, I don't think anyone thought they'd hold this long...we'll see what happens when stuff thaws
@@LearnWithBahman he wasn't exactly wrong. Russia did invade Ukraine under the pretext of preserving 'democratic institutions' and annex the Crimean penisula region in 2014. Most people forget it even happened. Primariliy because there was zero response from NATO. Nor Obama. Other than some sanctions. which backfired.
If you came here to see if Peter Zeihan has made historically accurate predictions pre joe Rogan let me be of service. He had it all right. Only exception I found was at 34:36
8:40 Well my wife and I have 7 kids...:)
We have the basics down...
Thanks for saving the country
Stacy Clarkson have another for me
Same as me but I have one grandson so that’s one up lol fun to have big family
But...but...overpopulation!
🤯
@A Serious Salamander you make the kids work. Don't automatically fund their college nor their wedding.
He says some things about Alberta that haven't aged well. The pipeline through BC that he said would never get built because in Canada the Federal government doesn't have any power has indeed been built, despite BC's objections, because in Canada the Federal government actually has considerably more power over the provinces than the US federal government has over individual states. Treating the demographics of a province the same way you treat the demographics of a country is kind of dumb too, when you consider that within a country people, particularly young people, can simply migrate to wherever the work is. Alberta gets younger every time the oilpatch booms, and then ages every time it tanks and all the roughnecks and welders go back to the Maritimes.
We hit energy dependence in about 3.5 years. Very prescient of him.
no you didnt.
@@Withnail1969 yea we did. We export a crap ton of oil…
@@cooldudecs no you didn't. you re-export other peoples oil that you refine in the US. and you export some shale oil that US refineries can't use. Overall the US is a net importer of oil.
55:30 "keep an eye on france" ok i'm watching france......paris has been on fire for 3 months hahahahaha
Well, he did say it was going to be colorful...
Can't believe this guy predicted the Venezuela Crisis
Albion Nika any 12 year old can predict Venezuela crisis! 🤣 that country walks around with a grenade pin off! Scaring not only Venezuelans but their neighbors too!
Well it’s not anymore and now Venezuela is looking good
Success breeds jealousy. This comment section just reminds me that America's going to stay #1 for a good long while.
+Elijah Talmud U S A
S
A
+Elijah Talmud truer word never spoken...:)
It is more the fact that the "success" of US imperialism is based on the petro-dollar (in close connection to the gulf despotic monarchies which practice a very backward form of islam, called wahabism, which they spread around the world) and the military power of the US (the US military is the #1 oil user in the US), the oil wars and drone wars, just to control the rest of the world, which have costed the lives of a million or more people (including tthe Iraq war and aftermath), and even bombing prosperous nations like Libya back into total chaos. That is not something to be "jealous" of, it should make people ashamed.
America is the new energy super power.oil and Gas in spades...We dont care about the middle East...
robheusd All that means is that i can afford college for my kids who will have garenteed jobs and the rest of the world can suck it. welcom to the end game.
Peter is incredibly accurate. We are now in the time of pulling our global support out. He even predicted 2019-2021 as being the top. Incredible
Who else came here to see if Peter's commentary from 2014 is relevant/on target in 2023. His comments on Russia at 36 minutes seem to be on spot... (unfortunately)
Watch. Learn. Understand why things happen. Don't be ignorant. Stupidity is a choice. Now, this guy is ONE analyst and some things he suggested didn't happen that way. And he seems to base everything on war and conquest. But either way, it is thoughtful and thought provoking and completely a-political.
Apolitical! Get yer hand off it. He's old school neo con, isolationist. He makes Trump look like a Marxist.
Peter Zeihan, Romania is not dependent on Russian gas, we have enough gas in Transilvania, and also we discovered gas and oil in the Black Sea to give to Europe for the next 80 years. We just want to be left alone to develop. we were under Turks, Austrians Russians(USSR),... we just want peace and neighbors(countries with imperialistic aspirations) to leave us alone
Oh now, don't be like that. Come and join the good old U.S.A. Beat Alberta to become our 51th state ! Become the five-one !
I know lots of Romanians. You guys are smart and hard-working. You will prosper when everyone leaves you alone. And I think that you will have a peaceful century.
Trust me when i am saying this, your big problem is gonna be turks. Watch out erdogan! Turkey wet with ottoman era dreams. But tge most in danger is not u guys but places like bulgaria or greece!
@Leroy JenkinsNow Now. This is Vee's stream you can't talk like that around here.
I just saw your comment on a lecture that Peter zeiner gave. How are things looking in Romania today compared to 2 years ago
He was dead on about the cartels. There was a guy goin around a lot of podcasts who worked for the Mexican Federal police fighting against the cartels. And I've heard him point out the fact that tourism in Mexico is actually getting safer because of cartels. They have started taking over resorts and hotels to channel money. But if the small petty gangs kidnap or kill Americans, the resorts lose business. So the bigger cartels actually protect the resorts very closely
Looks like the cartels took their eye off the ball.
It really makes sense now that Trump wants to leave NATO.
LEGALIZE DRUGS.
No
Let Them Fight have them remember how much they needed us and we end it except this time we Annex them
@@jeronimotamayolopera4834 Nah, let the cartels kill the gangs and when they try to fight each other on a large scale, let the National Guard and angry armed citizens wipe them out.
Predicted the future! What an amazing analysis.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
@@Adrian-rb4qp hmmm.. what about 'red dragon' ?
@@anonymous-dk1is Do you mind explaining what you mean
@@Adrian-rb4qp War'
'Older men declare war. But it is youth that must fight and die. And it is youth who must inherit the tribulation, the sorrow, and the triumphs that are the aftermath of war.' - Herbert Hoover
...
@@Adrian-rb4qp Dude, you just literally copied and pasted your comment.
"the sun doesn't shine in Germany!"
i want this guy on my trivia team
This is his best presentation forsure.
39:00
M-my God... This entire minute. No wonder EU wanted it's army.
Yeahhh….😂
we still want.
Hmm...
This is one of the most interesting economix seminar i have seen. Great speaker.
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
Since it's 2022, I checked a couple of forecasts (oil independence and USA younger than China) - not exactly precise, but in the ballpark. :-)
I have literally watched every video on his channel and every single thing I can find of him
Noticed nobody here has disputed his central thesis regarding Bretton-Woods yet are quick to proclaim they know the world is entirely different than what he describes it as.
25:00 called it
I missed this the first few times, but omg yeah he did... What a brilliant man....
The top of all the slides are cut off. Peter gives the presentation assuming everyone can read the slides. Too bad we can't download the slides separately and follow along.
Energy and Transport.
Great presentation. This sheds a lot of light on whats going on in the world and why. Optimistic but rational.
34:45 "If the Red Army is going to do something, they have to do it now. They will have less than half their soldiers by five years from now."
Me: Checks date of upload. It's been six years. They've pissed off Ukraine by taking Crimea, and that's literally all they've done. Press f to pay respects. Russia is in for some tough times.
*Edit (2/22/22): This comment has, in fact, aged like milk. Thank you MAR.
This aged like milk.
Lol. Zeihan was off a couple years but he isn't wrong.
UFFF hurts now
@@jiminy82 in his book his date is 2023
Adjust for Covid and he was scarily Spot on
Peter is GREAT
Pretty much on point with Ukraine
This has aged well, it's like Putin wrote his playbook from Peter
Maybe Putin watched this video, thought Ukraine would continue to be a pushover and the USA would disengage.
@@davedreher9254 so yes the war is actually Peter's fault
Predictions that have come true looking back from 2018:
- Russian military activity in Russian borderlands increased every year since 2014. Chechnya, Syria, Ukraine
- European debt crisis getting worse and many EU states beginning to elect anti or at least non pro EU politicians. UK ,Poland, Hungary, Italy and now even Germany potentially in the next elections
- America has become oil independent in terms of production vs consumption although not all is consumed in america
- America beginning to lose interest in cold war security and trade alliances, first NATO, now even WTO / global free trade altogether and NAFTA to a lesser extent
- Mexican economic growth data holding steady and growing slowly
- China's attempts at achieving a consumer fueled economy with a declining consumer aged population not doing too well(although not a complete failure but we can't really tell cause no one trusts Chinese economic census data, not even the Chinese government trust their own data) as in recent years Chinese government had to made bailouts to SOEs which dwarf bailouts in the US during 2008
Things he said which i can't tell if were a joke or just wrong
- Most young Russians have tuberculosis?
- Canadian national unity at risk? How is any state that splits from Canada going to be in a better position then a united Canada in anything except finances unless they really do join the U.S, which i doubt even the U.S will allow them to join unless they wanna piss off Canada
- Sun doesn't shine in Germany? I mean not as much as in america since its in the northern European zone with high rainfall but is it really that bad?
Things not addressed
- Immigration of active labor force members from places like SEA, China, India, eastern Europe and non war torn parts of Africa and central Asia to Canada and other states in the developed world like France and Nordic nations(UK to a lesser extent) which do not have as bad a demographic problem as Germany / Italy
And if you look now in 2022...pretty accurate
It's really interesting looking back at what PZ was saying. His jubilation at US energy independence didn't come to fruition and it looks like the US shale oil has or is about to peak. From here onwards, the quality of the shale oil will deteriorate and the quantity produced will decrease as they move from tier 1 acreage to tier 2 and 3. Venezuelan oil is coming back onto the market. The question is, how will this affect the US geopolitical position?
By any chance has he done an analysis of Australia, like this?
He tends to be US centric (because thats where his clients are). he has mentioned that Australia will take a hit because the China collapse will remove the market for a lot of stuff they sell. Australia imports a lot of fertilizer, this will not be available to buy so agriculture will slow down. The price of food will go up though so this may balance out. Australia is a close US ally (US are giving them nuclear subs) so they will stay within US protection and trade circles. Australia SHOULD be building infrastructure to make steel (they have all the raw ingredients).
"the magic year is 2019-2021" COVID: Imma bout to end this man's whole career
Other videos he talks alot about covid
@@darknightbegins85 I know, I've watched them. Just pointing it out.
If he called that he'd be one sussy baka
I know it's tough to predict the future, but Peter was way off on US shale gas supply to Mexico. He predicted it would be about 15 Bcf/d by 2020. Well, in 2022 its between 6-7 Bcf/d, which is less than HALF of his estimate for 2 years ago. Being confident doesn't make you right.
Directionally he was.
Look at LNG. We export over 20 bcf a day now
@@timthetiny7538 Wrong. When you're off by over 50% that isn't a valid prediction. That's like me saying the S&P will be higher in 5 years. Stop making excuses for him. Also, we don't export over 20 bcf a day of LNG TOTAL let alone to Mexico (which is my point). (We export about 11.5 bcf according to the US gov.)
@@ikiruyamamoto1050 I was talking about total exports.
I'm a petroleum geologist, I know exactly what we do and don't export and to who.
A few bcf off is a rounding error
Peter!!! Please come to Alberta and teach us what we need to do to leave Canada and Joing the US!!!! Please!!!
You do not need to join us...just be your own country..you have everything you need.
As a petroleum geologist, I really would like Alberta to join up ;)
If you haven't bought his books, do so. The breadth and depth of his analysis is incredible. You will be smarter after reading him
Thank you..I will take your good advice.
@@bestofthebest2148 What'd u think, Greek not-nazi dude?
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims.
mathematics, reliable statistics, and basic economics will Never be Refuted......witness it here..........
We should be wary of people like Peter. They're popular within the first 10-20 years of their predictions because it's not that hard to predict the near future.
But when their bolder claims never come to pass, they're discredited and we move onto the next person predicting the end of the world in 10-20 years.
In the 80s, George Friedman, Zeihan's former boss, predicted a US-Japan conflict and failed to predict the fall of the Soviet Union. 20 years later he predicted the fracturing of Russia by 2020 and the complete collapse and dissolution of China by 2030.
Zeihan, on the other hand, in his books and blog posts, none of his wild claims cite works from any studies or findings from other experts in the field. In academia, the bolder the claim the higher the burden of proof. That logic would imply that his books would have a truly massive bibliography. The Accidental Superpower doesn't have a bibliography.
Zeihan gets away with this because he claims that he's an expert in 6 fields. His website says "Peter combines expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future." That's A LOT of areas to be an expert in, quite frankly. He doesn't cite anything but, don't worry, Zeihan knows what he's talking about so we should trust him. This is, of course, a logical fallacy called "argument from authority". It's a well known fallacy and it's often associated with bold or even miraculous claims. a
I love his presentation :D. Especially the "photo" part xD
As an American I want BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan.
BC is too Canadian to ever consider joining the US, and most of Canada has social welfare us doesn't, they would not want to join.
@@Adrian-rb4qp but it would require a lot of diplomatic limbo to travel effortlessly to Ontario.
The First Nations could probably broker a better deal since they look at European Canadians as squatters anyway.
Outstanding!! Go USA!
Why does this guy keep making ‘monkey’ references when referring to an African-American President? It’s offensive, unnecessary and detracts from his message...but implicitly highlights the greatest internal threat to American prosperity - residual white supremacy that will have a hard time dealing with a multicultural populous.
@Leo Jansen ...sit back and watch how its done....from your wheel chair with prayer calls wailing in the background.
@@leewinslett2592 ...White supremacy is the vital force and lifeblood of America.
@@rickw7903 no thanks, we’ll pass
Can we get a copy of that slideshow? I'd love to study the Russia
maps more closely.
"Can we get a copy of that slideshow? I'd love to study the Russia maps more closely."
It's been a year, but if you're still interested, Peter has all the maps and charts from his books available on his website.
Last year i was working in Yamal Oblast in Russian Federation. Where they are building largest Gas exploitation field in the world on permafrost.
This is the greatest analysis I’ve ever seen
in my opinion, he got many things wrong but
one thing completely right. U.S. is the only super power in the world for foreseable future. and thats pretty good for his profesion.
Blanket statements without citation. I’ll totally agree with you. Also the earth is flat, for reasons.
@John Doe r/swooshhhh
Where's the Russian invasions?
@ProSensuCommuni Seem to get bogged down in Syria.
@John Doe The annexation of Crimea was *before* this talk. That's not a successful prediction of his. He was predicting *more* invasions that have failed to materialise. He was wrong. He had good reasons for thinking the way he did, but he was wrong.
I wasn't wondering about Iraq or Afghanistan. Why would I?
Some of this was pretty spot on.
Like most of it.
That’s why Europe fought so hard for this place
Goddam look at around 38 mins re: Russia- no matter what anyone says, there is nonperson who can say he did not call the Ukraine war in no uncertain terms
Welcome Albertans!
Nathaniel Nifong
Not without a war>1812??
Ross Mennie Reverse it and make it an annexation, Canada gets to finally have a proper stared flag and we get a monopoly on the maple syrup trade, bingo bango 5 new US states and an even more glorious solid north American state.
You don't want us to have to come down and burn the White House. Again. But seriously, forget Saudi. We have all the oil you'll ever need. Just try to start paying a fair price. We'd hate to have to turn off the taps until you notice let alone appreciate us again.
This aged insanely well, the US just sent troops to poland
And here we are in 2022 when russians invade Ukraine.
Dude has a crystal ball! Facts and raw empirical data!
Not bad. Came here to see what he said 8 years ago to see how accurate he was. Most parts yeah, except for US involvement and the order of things. Just yesterday Joe Biden went to Ukraine so obviously the US has not yet turned it’s back on the world.
This guy is mazing. I would love to see him speak for an hour on Australian Geopolitics, Demographics and Energy concerns, state by state. Australia is currently facing a bit of an energy crisis, and it seems like the crisis is more so artificially created by the government and general mismanagement of resources, so a centered non biased geopolitical look at this situation would be very interesting, because I think Australia is entering a bit of a pickle when it comes to energy. WA sent all our iron to china, QLD sent all it's coal to china, NSW is fracking in urban areas, SA is having rolling blackouts that are unacceptable in a first world country, and Victoria is entering a post coal era, to the benefit to the environment but at the detriment of our economy, so Victoria is next in line for rolling blackouts and a massive surge in energy costs. Our right wing government, old school conservative, completely castrated our renewable energy infrastructure, and stagnated the growth of our internet infrastructure, leaving us with the worst internet on the planet when compared to our GDP. I hope there are geopolitical reasons for our old right wingers to do this to the country, but Australia is in desperate need of a new right, or a left opposition that actually has some semblance of charisma with popular policies to back them up. We either need a Trump minus the global warming denial, or be like Norway, minus the Islamic immigration. Or something. Bing Bong Bounce on my Dropbears D to this for hours.
I literally cannot get enough of this guy.
He's wrong....been saying the same crap for 15 years.
says the random guy in the youtube comments. Why are you watching?
Does this guy work for the oil industry?
One of the most interesting things I've seen lately
38:40 In 2022-02-24 Step 4 happened.
Mr.Zeihan ignored the trend towards extreme income inequality that has stagnated US economy.
Income inequality isn't a bad thing. It's bound to happen as everyone's labour is differently valued. Infact trying to Equalize it would lead ro even less growth.
US already has a progressive tax rate which they need to do away with.
Always thought it's funny that ppl look back at lectures like this and marvel at how he was so accurate. It's called knowing how to read a map. Just take time and logic
Hasn't been right about Iran, has he? Completely leaves Isreal out of the equation.
@@timseytiger9280 cause Israel isn't really all that important geostrategically. If we got booted out of the rest of mideast it could serve as an unsinkable aircraft carrier but otherwise it's too small to really matter. What was he wrong about Iran on?
Wow, nailed 90% of his predictions!
Dear God, Please let Texas write the global greenhouse gas treaty.
Texas going strong 2019!
@@Sergeant_Camacho Tyrell