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Agree with Mike about a near term period of cyclical disinflation/deflation but also have the longer term view (informed by Russell Napier, Luke Gromen, Lyn Alden, Cem Karsan, etc) of financial repression (holding yields below inflation to prop up nominal GDP and inflate down sovereign debt) that would make holding sovereign bonds a bad move after this near term period. Would love to hear what Mike thinks about financial repression (seems like the only way beyond austerity - which won't happen) for governments to deal with the massive debt and how this would inform the composition of FIG or not.
We can't mention specific tickers but if you go to the Simplify site, you should be able to find it pretty quickly. Thanks for checking out Excess Returns! www.simplify.us/etfs
He says if prices of houses come down to be affordable at these interest rates, you wont be buying because of mass unemployment. Sorry not buying it. We could have a glut of inventory come online from airbnb liquidation, corporate landlord liquidation from bad cap rates, empty office conversions, homebuilder inventory, retiring boomers needing to liquidate, etc. None of that has anything to do per se with mass unemployment. Theres a real economy independent of people speculating on house appreciation. If the entire US economy breaks and cannot function without a housing bubble, we all have much bigger problems to deal with than our portfolio composition.
Market can remain irrational longer then you remain solvent. One year is not long term in regards to markets reverting to a mean. We have recency buas after watching a huge depression and complete turn around over a couple of months during covid. Typical cycles are usually much longer
Thank you for checking out Excess Returns. If you found this video valuable, please like it 👍, leave a comment ⌨ and subscribe to our TH-cam Channel 💥
www.youtube.com/@ExcessReturns
Really liked hearing Mike sharing his life experience. Rational person with sharp mind.
Mike is great guest!
Really enjoyed this one
Thank you Excess Returns!
Thank for watching and commenting Bruce!
Excellent advice at the end!
Agree with Mike about a near term period of cyclical disinflation/deflation but also have the longer term view (informed by Russell Napier, Luke Gromen, Lyn Alden, Cem Karsan, etc) of financial repression (holding yields below inflation to prop up nominal GDP and inflate down sovereign debt) that would make holding sovereign bonds a bad move after this near term period. Would love to hear what Mike thinks about financial repression (seems like the only way beyond austerity - which won't happen) for governments to deal with the massive debt and how this would inform the composition of FIG or not.
Great episode. I'm definitely subscribing
Great pod!
Thank you!
Good talk.
Minute 47 is where the magic happens
What are the tickers of simplified ETF he is refering?
We can't mention specific tickers but if you go to the Simplify site, you should be able to find it pretty quickly. Thanks for checking out Excess Returns!
www.simplify.us/etfs
Oh snap professor plum
He says if prices of houses come down to be affordable at these interest rates, you wont be buying because of mass unemployment.
Sorry not buying it. We could have a glut of inventory come online from airbnb liquidation, corporate landlord liquidation from bad cap rates, empty office conversions, homebuilder inventory, retiring boomers needing to liquidate, etc.
None of that has anything to do per se with mass unemployment. Theres a real economy independent of people speculating on house appreciation.
If the entire US economy breaks and cannot function without a housing bubble, we all have much bigger problems to deal with than our portfolio composition.
This didnt age super well... Is huge market gains "not much upside"? over a 1 year timescale? Is mike watching longer time scales?
Market can remain irrational longer then you remain solvent. One year is not long term in regards to markets reverting to a mean. We have recency buas after watching a huge depression and complete turn around over a couple of months during covid. Typical cycles are usually much longer
I unsubscribed after listening to the guest. Total charlatan.