For what's it worth, I hope prices don't rise. A few years of stagnant house prices would help rebalance the market.
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Labour Govt's always see the highest prices rises; they always fuel inflation via spaffing money away and borrowing (sorry, "investing in public services") , and this lot are off to a cracking start.
I honestly hope for a bit of a crash in prices - home ownership is becoming increasingly unachievable - But the reality is it looks like Barclays and Llyods are going to become the UKs biggest landlords.
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@@Tengu3000yes..I think Blackrock have a £1B fund to buy up rental property too. Only the largest companies will be have the economies of scale a large management teams that will stand chance of dealing with the Renter Right Bill nightmare which contains a massive number of new threats that could wipe out and small landlords, such a doubling rent repayment orders and the ability of tenant to delay paying any rent for months by playing the system. Once they have a stranglehold they'll ramp up rents through the roof.
@@Tengu3000sorry to disappoint you but there’s zero chance of that with the population explosion we’re in the middle of. The best you can hope for is it goes sideways for a bit or a couple percent downwards.
All the sources quoted regarding house price projections for the next 5 years have a vested interest in seeing house prices increase. It is very important to assess the credibility of sources of information and unfortunately almost all those putting together projections, when it comes to house prices, are biased.
@@travellingtom6091 Indeed - all the analysis and commentary is based on a very mainstream keynsian economics outlook. Fairly beige and highly probable, but there are definitely some alternative projections and outcomes that are worth considering... What if the historic, decade long lows in interest rates has marked the end of loose monetary policy and the the rest of the world decide that they no longer want to support the profligacy of the West?...
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy, or not?
Stocks with yields that outperform the market should be on your radar, as should shares that at least lag the market over the long term. But if you want a long-term strategy that works, I advise you to consult a broker or financial advisor.
I concur; I've been in frequent communication with an investing advisor for more than 17 months. I definitely remember needing inspiration to keep my business running after a protracted divorce. I researched licensing consultants, sometimes known as portfolio coaches by some.
“Stacy Lynn Staples” has always been on the top of my list..She is regarded as a genius in her area and well knowledgeable about financial markets. I highly recommend you look her up if you want excellent collaboration.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
If you mean is currency going to depreciate due to high sovereign debt and the need for more QE then the answer is yes. Housing will appear to be worth more but in reality the currency will be failing like it has since 1973 and beyond.
Interest rates may drop a bit. Do not expect wonders with Labour running UK now.They will ask for more taxes. Most rich people will leave in next few years. Time to think about moving out if no break through happens in 2025.
Oddly enough the inflation of the last few years has helped a lot. If you can get near to inflation pay rises then your house payments have gone down by about 20%.
On the street... its the constant battle of greed from the seller v Overvaluing Agent .. .something the market may have not considered fully ... the Greed of a Probate sale - A property untouched for 40 years and expected to pay the same as something done up. Asking prices have continued to rise fuelled by said reasons ... not by a penny or two but at least £100k. Once Sales dry up for agents this alone will focus their minds on correct selling prices within reason ...
why are we looking at house prices in relation to inflation? to say house prices have fallen 15% in real terms whereas inflation mightve gone up 30% and wages have stagnated then its also true that house prices have gone up 15% in relation to wages? just seems weird to offset house prices against cpi inflation
I don’t understand how the value of the housing/properties available keeps going up or staying the same - it’s fine if your property is worth £850k etc but most of these properties are staying on the market for a long long time. How many first time buyers have a £800k mortgage valuation for a 2 bed flat in London - it’s just getting ridiculous?
I'm buying - closing this month - and I hope prices don't rise for decades. Vast swathes of the country are, realistically and without suicidal mortgage schemes, well out of the market. This is not good for the future of the nation.
I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I'm a single mother living in Birmingham uk, bought my second house in August and hoping to retire next year at 41 if things keep going smoothly for me…,.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Jihan Wu you're such a life saver
Implement additional property taxes and invest the money into Social Housing, that'll soon bring down the prices people ask for their properties and make it more expensive for those who are under-utilizing the UK's finite housing stock. If you bought a property when property was overpriced that's your own fault, not the fault of the rest of the UK population.
It’s difficult to tell people house prices have come down over 15 years due to inflation as they are still so high, but I agree they have become more affordable for those with a job.
Great video....thanks....there are some bargains to be had at the moment especially if you want a larger home....have been saving with my wife for a decade and thought we would miss the second stepper stuff and go straight for a 4 bed detached homestead with an acre.....don't care if prices fall more from here have my forever home at last 😊
With the stamp duty thresholds being lowered by labour, wouldn't this mean it would further lower the affordability of houses due to this extra taxation?
Yes, they will rise in 2025 and 2026, >IF< interest rates drop to 3.5% to 4%. At 2.75%, they will surge (double figures) for a year or three. Great video
Income to house price ratio of 6.1 is too high! If I were government I'd be aiming to gradually bring this ratio down to 4-5 times annual earnings, which is what house prices were at for decades before deregulation of mortgage lending in the 80s. All that money going on homes that were built decades or even centuries ago is such a waste and a drain on society and the economy, and inhibits real growth in value in the things businesses and people actually do.
Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.
If all of this is predicated on the possibility of interest rates being cut aggressively, then I suppose we'll just have to wait and see. I doubt that interest rates will fall below 4%. The BoE realised that it had left it far too late to normalise the base rate. I think they'll cut it enough to take some pressure off of businesses but the days of ultra-low interest rates are gone.
I agree it is nearly certain, they will be coming down in the next year. I believe there will be no more cuts before the end of 2024 but next year will bring some cuts, no so aggressively as they say. The spanner in the works could be the labour budget that is loading a lot of extra costs on businesses, this may not help keeping inflation on target.
Ask yourself first, does Government follow the agenda to make as many homeowners in the country or they chase the opposite result? Based on that we can tell indefinitely what will happen to the prices regardless of the statistical numbers. Home owner - more freedom, renting or mortgage for life - perfect digital slave , easily controlled, very conformative. Who would you choose if you were them?
Interest rates dropping doesn’t help banks raise funds….. it’s that simple. It may change by 1% imo. They squeeze the average persons wallet to the max and their at the equilibrium for their profits.
I really enjoy your channel (and subscribe) but have some friendly criticism: I would half the number of slides you show and double the time you spend speaking about each one. The volume of info is impossible to digest without pausing the video! Appreciate your work ❤
Well, you'd not like my presentations. Average of 60 - 80 slides, and I get through them pretty quickly, however the text is the important bit. One of the downsides of lecturing in a specialist area (in my case Pain Management, with an emphasis on emergent therapies and novel targets)
While it's good that affordability has improved since 15 years ago, that's good for the same age cohort 15 years apart. For anyone who has been frozen out of the housing market for those 15 years, it means that they've forked out 15 years of rent that could have been used to pay down a mortgage, and lost 15 of their prime income earning years that they can't get back. The impact on that 'frozen out' generation will crystallise in the next 15 years.
Let’s be absolutely clear, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE. Properties are taking longer to sell and more are coming onto the market then selling. Speak to any (honest), estate agent and they will all say it’s the hardest market they have ever experienced. Prices are not going up.
Stagnate wages and declining immigration will help lower housing prices along with future base rate 8ncreasea to fund government borrowing.The lesson is to wait for property vslue falls across the UK.
Declining immigration? a reduced rate of increase is still an increase. house builders aren't building faster, materials are getting more expensive. housing wont decrease while the social fabric holds, you can gamble on how long it will hold for. people will just get more used to smaller spaces and reduced living conditions, 2 families in a 3 bed terrace house, 4 families in a larger house etc. 3 generation housholds etc.
Lovely let's get back to near enough 0% interest rates then everyone can binge on cheap credit and we can look forward to a massive financial crash........happy days!
People don't understand reality. House prices will always go up with inflation, sometimes more, another time less, just like commodities. It's value of money dropping when goverment is printing more each year. If you want to blame anyone, blame goverment.
BOE released massive amount of stimulus to prevent market crash during covid bs. Massive inflation is effect of that cash flooding market. If you claim otherwise you are troll or on gov playlist. 🎉Have fun proving I'm wrong.
@@jontalbot1 Have I given any definition of inflation or what BOE does? WTF mind your language and grow up. If you don't know what printing money or borrowing does you may need to google it. And since you are talking about BOE specifically, biggest inflation we had recently is direct result of market stimulus to prevent the crash during covid and more that followed after. Market was just flooded with money.
Really? What happened to Japanese house prices then. And on average in the UK, maybe, but certainly not in a linear 1:1 way, and not in every area of the market. In terms of price per sqm, house prices have outstripped inflation by a significant amount in the south-east while in real terms they've actually gone down in the north, but so have incomes.
I calculate that house prices are 3.5 times higher than their average going back to 1984. When I got my first place. Borrowing costs are half what they were in 1985. There's loads of empty places waiting for a buyer, as the money is now so much more expensive than the 1% tracker mortgages. The government will try as ever to manipulate, I I'd say things are going nowhere.
House price to income ratio. The uk has a large tail of low paid workers who actually have their wages topped up by tax credits It would be more sensible to talk about house prices to median wage, rather than ro mean wage
That would screw over a large number of normal people who have scrimped and saved in recent years to buy their first property. Negative equity is no joke, especially if the fixed mortgage term has come to an end meaning they're unable to mortgage and suddenly their monthly payments double or triple.
It's all down to interest rates. If boe interest dropped back to 0.5%, house prices would instantly jump by 20% again. People will buy the biggest house they can afford, not the house they need, so house prices going up/down is all down to interest rate
Conversely, wage growth. The issue is partially house price rises, but the real issue is the complete stagnation of wage growth. Minimum wage has gone up sure, but graduates are entering the job market being paid 2008 wages. It's baffling to me that 70k was a great wage when I was a teenager and I'm 30 and it's still a great wage.
@@TheMajorpickle01 quite, the UK population has increased by almost 10 million since the year 2000. You can not do that and then act all shocked when Pay gets depressed, and housing costs (both rent and buying prices) get out of hand.
@@patdbean There has been a huge demand for more workforce, if you remember, UK has been welcoming new business to come in and wanted a bigger tax revenue. That in itself isn't bad idea, the problem is that UK governments had no plans to build enough houses to accommodate for the new workforce that was wanted/required. The results can be seen today - extra high prices for much smaller houses. And the key problem is still there - no workforce to build build build.
@@nothereandthereanywhere if we have this massive workforce shortage, why has pay been so depressed for the last 25 years? , The average full time wage In 2000 was 19k, to have kept up with REAL RPI inflation that would need to be 44k today, it is in fact 36k so the spending power of the average wage has done nothing but fall for 25 years. So this shortage you talk of is not really a shortage of workers, we have 9 million nonwork adults. it is really more shortage of jobs that pay enough to live on.
Prices will soar every year. BoE is itching to begin QE and ZIRP policy, net immigration is set to be in the millions per year (although most will arrive on a beach with no paperwork.
Why lie? Most people coming to the UK don't arrive on a beach, and never have done. It's in the single digits by percentage. But that probably spoils your narrative.
All this is mostly irrelevant until incomes catch up, inflation figures are still being used by employers to give out lower pay rises, even though they didn't give them during the period inflation was high. There is still a cost of living crisis in the UK.
Blackrock, Blackstone, Edmond de Rothschild, Hines, Greystar are buying everything that private second homeowners are going to have to sell with higher taxes....this is a systemic issue. Build to rent is expected to increase 2.5 times by 2030. The inevitability will be you won't own anything and you 'must' be happy.
Only the 'poor' will not own anything and those gen Z people who wish to consume more than they make. In most parts of the UK houses are still affordable even on a 25k salary, especially in the NW/Yorkshire etc. Yes, if you wish to move out of your family home at 18 and pay rent and eat out everyday, then ofcourse you dont have money to buy anything. But if you stay at home, live rent free, eat at home, live way below your means, i can assure you that anyone by the age of 28/30 can have well over 100/150k saved up. I am not making these figures up as i have lived it and so have my younger siblings and cousins who are currently 20-30 years old and every one of them has their own property. Some of them have even paid it off by 30 like me.
@@HDY0903 'still affordable even on a 25k salary'? well. not in London mate or surrey. yeah the minimum salary is 23-25k , however, you cannot buy a house near or in London. you need to go up north.
@@HS-sr9ww yes, that is why i mentioned NW/Yorkshire. Post covid you just dont need to be any where near London. Me and my wife have worked from home for over 4 years now. Im self employed, but she is part time employed and they only go in office once every 6 months.
@@HDY0903 This comment is laughable. Even if you save for a house to the age of 30 and save every penny. It won't make much of a difference as houses in South are out of the reach for you. Even if you save the dreamed 100k, the price of a house is around £300k - the bank will not give you £200k for the mortgage on that wage. Dream on.
I find it really strange that they keep saying inflation is down when felt inflation (food shopping prices etc.) is still really high. Is that a bank of England statistic trick or there are other factors
I think inflation (annual rise in certain prices) probably is down, and this is important but as you say, prices are still a) high and b) rising (which is not to be confused with a rise in inflation)
inflation is just a measure of how fast costs are increasing. When inflation goes down it doesn't mean prices go down it means that the rate of increase in their pricing decreases
On strict fundamentals, how on earth can house prices 'soar' from the nosebleed levels they've already attained? I understand 'how' of course: it will have nothing to do with economics and everything to do with politics! When all MPs became property owners/landlords (not just the Tory landed-gentry types) this was inevitable. Supporting house price hyperinflation is going to finally wreck the UK economy.
The Government really need to step in on private equity firms buying up houses before it becomes a major problem but as always they won't intervene and we'll pay for it in the future.
Not necessarily. This makes multiple assumptions - the most prominent and universal of which is that it assumes one does not have another mutually exclusive asset with greater rate of return in which to deploy capital... and many people will have such an option ;)
Houses will double every year for the next 10 years. We will all be billionairs while doing nothing to get that money we can all retire at 40 so no one will need to work. The garden of Eden is here. All Governments will always back homeowners and make the poor pay for us homeowners as homeowners are the majority.
This again??? It's never good to loan money. The thing is to accumulate money on one's account, expect others to do the same, and break everything apart.
Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark
!!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
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I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $100k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
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Under labour there will be a huge recession in no time. Interest rates have started rising and labour are causing inflation. Crazy how wrong you are in just 10 days 😂
this is ridiculous. i should've moved out of my parents house years ago, and the way this housing crisis is looking i won't be moving out anytime soon either. i don't think the "housing crisis" would be as bad if they didn't just hand out free houses to illegals. where's my free house, it's the least they could do for me as they've been f-ing over me and mine for my whole life
I love the content and always had that feeling I know that face from somewhere. Then it came to me, Cycling Time trials!! A fan of both of your skills.
Well, if you're a private Equity Firm or you're sleeping on a mattress full of money, then yeah, it's okay to buy a house. Other than that, I think most people are going to find it hard to eat
Get a van / motorhome, sack paying mortgages - rent & rip off utilities! The economy across the globe will go into a depression soon enough, crypto & silver are the assets to have - to beat inflation. Landlords are exiting the market, this will have a large effect & bring house prices down. The world is in for one hell of a shock!!
If prices 'soar' again after frankly soaring for years and years at this stage, then interest rates will have to go to 10%+ and people will default en-masse. The banks aren't going to let the older mortgage debts inflate away, trust me. Banks don't lose. History tells you as much.
@@VTh-f5x I mean the interest rates banks apply to mortgages, which closely mirror the 10-year bond yield. Not the interest rates that are set by the Bank of England.
@@robc1014 Yes, sadly. Taxpayer should have never consented to the debt jubilee of 2008. We weren't awarded dividends for our ownership of the banks, and now that the banks are being sold off by the Treasury back into private hands, some of them are already admitting to pursuing rental income e.g. Lloyds. UK is its own worst enemy, you'd think 16 years wouldn't be long enough to forget what happened, but it has been long enough.
Actually millions who are renting from private landlords do not wish to buy their own home. They know the usurious banking corporate landlords will squeeze them to the max. People wake up to Islam. Islam supports the traditional family.
It’s not about if they could. The usurious bankers are trying to reel people into taking on mortgages. Then, the usurious bankers will jack up the rates putting so much pressure on UK traditional families that will end in divorce, and as we know all the homes will be given to single mothers and their children while landless fathers go out and work stupid hours paying for these single mothers. This is the design of the usurious bankers’ modernity. If the usurious bankers wanted to support traditional families they would support the males by making them financially strong and the single mothers would not divorce and be attracted to the free homes given to them paid for by landless fathers. Islam supports the traditional family. We have dark designs in the UK by demonic forces.
I personally rent out my property in the UK at 50% market rate to a traditional family. I’m trying to do my bit and I speak out against usury by first using the word usury. It is a small step. You do your bit and start using the word usury.
@@D-A-H8585 that's good of you, less good of you because you'd only do so to a 'traditional family' I'd say. But you haven't actually answered my question. You may be Muslim and charging less but what does Islam as a system or institution provide that improves upon traditional banking. It's not a trick question I'm genuinely curious.
This seems like great news. I am almost done reaching my downpayment and I hope to get into the property ladder by the end of this year or the beginning of 2025!
The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?
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For what's it worth, I hope prices don't rise. A few years of stagnant house prices would help rebalance the market.
Labour Govt's always see the highest prices rises; they always fuel inflation via spaffing money away and borrowing (sorry, "investing in public services") , and this lot are off to a cracking start.
I honestly hope for a bit of a crash in prices - home ownership is becoming increasingly unachievable - But the reality is it looks like Barclays and Llyods are going to become the UKs biggest landlords.
@@Tengu3000yes..I think Blackrock have a £1B fund to buy up rental property too. Only the largest companies will be have the economies of scale a large management teams that will stand chance of dealing with the Renter Right Bill nightmare which contains a massive number of new threats that could wipe out and small landlords, such a doubling rent repayment orders and the ability of tenant to delay paying any rent for months by playing the system. Once they have a stranglehold they'll ramp up rents through the roof.
Same - zero nominal until housing is viewed as a utility.
@@Tengu3000sorry to disappoint you but there’s zero chance of that with the population explosion we’re in the middle of. The best you can hope for is it goes sideways for a bit or a couple percent downwards.
All the sources quoted regarding house price projections for the next 5 years have a vested interest in seeing house prices increase. It is very important to assess the credibility of sources of information and unfortunately almost all those putting together projections, when it comes to house prices, are biased.
Very true
@@travellingtom6091 Indeed - all the analysis and commentary is based on a very mainstream keynsian economics outlook. Fairly beige and highly probable, but there are definitely some alternative projections and outcomes that are worth considering...
What if the historic, decade long lows in interest rates has marked the end of loose monetary policy and the the rest of the world decide that they no longer want to support the profligacy of the West?...
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
consider moving your money from the housing market to financial markets or gold due to high mortgage rates and tough guidelines. Home prices may need to drop significantly before things stabilize. Seeking advice from a financial advisor who understands the market could be helpful in making the right decisions.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy, or not?
Stocks with yields that outperform the market should be on your radar, as should shares that at least lag the market over the long term. But if you want a long-term strategy that works, I advise you to consult a broker or financial advisor.
I concur; I've been in frequent communication with an investing advisor for more than 17 months. I definitely remember needing inspiration to keep my business running after a protracted divorce. I researched licensing consultants, sometimes known as portfolio coaches by some.
How do I meet this advisor, please? I need assistance investing my divorce settlement because it's now sitting in the bank earning little interest.
“Stacy Lynn Staples” has always been on the top of my list..She is regarded as a genius in her area and well knowledgeable about financial markets. I highly recommend you look her up if you want excellent collaboration.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
If you mean is currency going to depreciate due to high sovereign debt and the need for more QE then the answer is yes. Housing will appear to be worth more but in reality the currency will be failing like it has since 1973 and beyond.
why only goldman sachs can predict the interest rate of 2025, no other data available ? or an average of several quality data of the rate?
Interest rates may drop a bit. Do not expect wonders with Labour running UK now.They will ask for more taxes.
Most rich people will leave in next few years.
Time to think about moving out if no break through happens in 2025.
Oddly enough the inflation of the last few years has helped a lot. If you can get near to inflation pay rises then your house payments have gone down by about 20%.
On the street... its the constant battle of greed from the seller v Overvaluing Agent .. .something the market may have not considered fully ... the Greed of a Probate sale - A property untouched for 40 years and expected to pay the same as something done up. Asking prices have continued to rise fuelled by said reasons ... not by a penny or two but at least £100k. Once Sales dry up for agents this alone will focus their minds on correct selling prices within reason ...
why are we looking at house prices in relation to inflation? to say house prices have fallen 15% in real terms whereas inflation mightve gone up 30% and wages have stagnated then its also true that house prices have gone up 15% in relation to wages? just seems weird to offset house prices against cpi inflation
I don’t understand how the value of the housing/properties available keeps going up or staying the same - it’s fine if your property is worth £850k etc but most of these properties are staying on the market for a long long time. How many first time buyers have a £800k mortgage valuation for a 2 bed flat in London - it’s just getting ridiculous?
Mortgages are going up, as nobody wants to lend the UK money at only 4%..... Under Labour, lenders will want 8%.....
I'm buying - closing this month - and I hope prices don't rise for decades. Vast swathes of the country are, realistically and without suicidal mortgage schemes, well out of the market. This is not good for the future of the nation.
I'm so happy I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I'm a single mother living in Birmingham uk, bought my second house in August and hoping to retire next year at 41 if things keep going smoothly for me…,.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear that you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small Investment, thank you Jihan Wu you're such a life saver
Please is there any way I can get in touch with him please?
Been free from debt for good 2 years thanks to Jihan Wu. It is very sad to see my friends in their 40s with car loans, mortgages and credit card debt
Thanks a lot....I have reached out to him.
The very first time we tried, we invested $14000 and after a week, we received $50,230. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Might be because I’m watching on my TV but your speaker volume sounds very muted :/ same in another video I watched too - great info for sure though
Fantastic analysis
Thank you Sir
Brilliant discussion
Forget buying houses in the UK it’s about selling and moving abroad whilst the pound has some value to it
Implement additional property taxes and invest the money into Social Housing, that'll soon bring down the prices people ask for their properties and make it more expensive for those who are under-utilizing the UK's finite housing stock. If you bought a property when property was overpriced that's your own fault, not the fault of the rest of the UK population.
A house where I am was 60 thousand in the 2000s same house in now 250 thousand don't know what's happened the area looks worse than twenty years ago 🙃
It’s difficult to tell people house prices have come down over 15 years due to inflation as they are still so high, but I agree they have become more affordable for those with a job.
What about the 18 year property cycle? Are we due a reset from 2026? Does your theory apply to Ireland?
Er, Banks are raising Rates despite BOE cuts. Ditto in the states?
Great video....thanks....there are some bargains to be had at the moment especially if you want a larger home....have been saving with my wife for a decade and thought we would miss the second stepper stuff and go straight for a 4 bed detached homestead with an acre.....don't care if prices fall more from here have my forever home at last 😊
Fantastic analysis
Thank you Sir
With the stamp duty thresholds being lowered by labour, wouldn't this mean it would further lower the affordability of houses due to this extra taxation?
Maybe in 2025, for now everything in the UK is stagnated including housing and commercial property market
Yes, they will rise in 2025 and 2026, >IF< interest rates drop to 3.5% to 4%. At 2.75%, they will surge (double figures) for a year or three. Great video
They will rise. And the gravy train keeps on rolling. I have no confidence the new government will do anything to stop it
Income to house price ratio of 6.1 is too high! If I were government I'd be aiming to gradually bring this ratio down to 4-5 times annual earnings, which is what house prices were at for decades before deregulation of mortgage lending in the 80s. All that money going on homes that were built decades or even centuries ago is such a waste and a drain on society and the economy, and inhibits real growth in value in the things businesses and people actually do.
Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.
If all of this is predicated on the possibility of interest rates being cut aggressively, then I suppose we'll just have to wait and see. I doubt that interest rates will fall below 4%. The BoE realised that it had left it far too late to normalise the base rate. I think they'll cut it enough to take some pressure off of businesses but the days of ultra-low interest rates are gone.
I agree it is nearly certain, they will be coming down in the next year. I believe there will be no more cuts before the end of 2024 but next year will bring some cuts, no so aggressively as they say. The spanner in the works could be the labour budget that is loading a lot of extra costs on businesses, this may not help keeping inflation on target.
Ask yourself first, does Government follow the agenda to make as many homeowners in the country or they chase the opposite result?
Based on that we can tell indefinitely what will happen to the prices regardless of the statistical numbers.
Home owner - more freedom, renting or mortgage for life - perfect digital slave , easily controlled, very conformative.
Who would you choose if you were them?
Interest rates dropping doesn’t help banks raise funds….. it’s that simple. It may change by 1% imo. They squeeze the average persons wallet to the max and their at the equilibrium for their profits.
More likely is 100 year generational mortgages like Japan.
Can't increase the population by millions and not expect the demand for housing to go up
Print another billion or 10
I really enjoy your channel (and subscribe) but have some friendly criticism: I would half the number of slides you show and double the time you spend speaking about each one. The volume of info is impossible to digest without pausing the video! Appreciate your work ❤
Ok thanks!
Well, you'd not like my presentations. Average of 60 - 80 slides, and I get through them pretty quickly, however the text is the important bit. One of the downsides of lecturing in a specialist area (in my case Pain Management, with an emphasis on emergent therapies and novel targets)
1:34 The colour of that line on the graph matches your jumper! ;)
So pleased to see both your collars outside the jumper this time
While it's good that affordability has improved since 15 years ago, that's good for the same age cohort 15 years apart. For anyone who has been frozen out of the housing market for those 15 years, it means that they've forked out 15 years of rent that could have been used to pay down a mortgage, and lost 15 of their prime income earning years that they can't get back. The impact on that 'frozen out' generation will crystallise in the next 15 years.
Depends, many millennials live with their parents. Which will have it's own effects later down the line...
HOuse prices will continue to go up.... assets dont simply lose value...
We should have put the pound on the gold standard. Steady growth no boom and bust.
Someone is mortgaged to the hilt. House prices are dipping and will continue to for a ling time. Its called a correction
Let’s be absolutely clear, THERE IS NO SHORTAGE. Properties are taking longer to sell and more are coming onto the market then selling. Speak to any (honest), estate agent and they will all say it’s the hardest market they have ever experienced. Prices are not going up.
Stagnate wages and declining immigration will help lower housing prices along with future base rate 8ncreasea to fund government borrowing.The lesson is to wait for property vslue falls across the UK.
Declining immigration? a reduced rate of increase is still an increase. house builders aren't building faster, materials are getting more expensive. housing wont decrease while the social fabric holds, you can gamble on how long it will hold for. people will just get more used to smaller spaces and reduced living conditions, 2 families in a 3 bed terrace house, 4 families in a larger house etc. 3 generation housholds etc.
I always confuse you with patrick boyle
Lovely let's get back to near enough 0% interest rates then everyone can binge on cheap credit and we can look forward to a massive financial crash........happy days!
Multi Millionaires and Billionaires are putting the squeeze on everything you buy or want to buy.
It will substantially drop over the next 2 years.
People don't understand reality. House prices will always go up with inflation, sometimes more, another time less, just like commodities. It's value of money dropping when goverment is printing more each year. If you want to blame anyone, blame goverment.
WTF are you talking about? I don’t think you even understand what inflation is, let alone what the BoE does
BOE released massive amount of stimulus to prevent market crash during covid bs. Massive inflation is effect of that cash flooding market. If you claim otherwise you are troll or on gov playlist. 🎉Have fun proving I'm wrong.
@@jontalbot1 Have I given any definition of inflation or what BOE does? WTF mind your language and grow up. If you don't know what printing money or borrowing does you may need to google it. And since you are talking about BOE specifically, biggest inflation we had recently is direct result of market stimulus to prevent the crash during covid and more that followed after. Market was just flooded with money.
@@MaxAcyWhat's your evidence to support your claims?
Really? What happened to Japanese house prices then.
And on average in the UK, maybe, but certainly not in a linear 1:1 way, and not in every area of the market. In terms of price per sqm, house prices have outstripped inflation by a significant amount in the south-east while in real terms they've actually gone down in the north, but so have incomes.
House prices will go down,daily being sold in auctions .Job loses coming,and you are not getting the picture.
No way. Prices will continue to fall.
SDLT major hike incoming
I calculate that house prices are 3.5 times higher than their average going back to 1984. When I got my first place. Borrowing costs are half what they were in 1985. There's loads of empty places waiting for a buyer, as the money is now so much more expensive than the 1% tracker mortgages. The government will try as ever to manipulate, I I'd say things are going nowhere.
House price to income ratio. The uk has a large tail of low paid workers who actually have their wages topped up by tax credits
It would be more sensible to talk about house prices to median wage, rather than ro mean wage
very good point. i have always heard of median house price to median wage, never the mean.
I pray house prices drop so normal people can buy one with their normal salary
That would screw over a large number of normal people who have scrimped and saved in recent years to buy their first property. Negative equity is no joke, especially if the fixed mortgage term has come to an end meaning they're unable to mortgage and suddenly their monthly payments double or triple.
@@robsmith1184 true. not everyone can win
Depends on where you live down south yes you’ll struggle but I’m from Yorkshire and I bought my own house on a salary for £28k
It's all down to interest rates.
If boe interest dropped back to 0.5%, house prices would instantly jump by 20% again.
People will buy the biggest house they can afford, not the house they need, so house prices going up/down is all down to interest rate
House prices need to drop at least 50% otherwise there is no future for the younglings of this country.
Conversely, wage growth. The issue is partially house price rises, but the real issue is the complete stagnation of wage growth. Minimum wage has gone up sure, but graduates are entering the job market being paid 2008 wages.
It's baffling to me that 70k was a great wage when I was a teenager and I'm 30 and it's still a great wage.
Pease read economics 101. Supply and demand
@@TheMajorpickle01 quite, the UK population has increased by almost 10 million since the year 2000. You can not do that and then act all shocked when Pay gets depressed, and housing costs (both rent and buying prices) get out of hand.
@@patdbean There has been a huge demand for more workforce, if you remember, UK has been welcoming new business to come in and wanted a bigger tax revenue. That in itself isn't bad idea, the problem is that UK governments had no plans to build enough houses to accommodate for the new workforce that was wanted/required. The results can be seen today - extra high prices for much smaller houses. And the key problem is still there - no workforce to build build build.
@@nothereandthereanywhere if we have this massive workforce shortage, why has pay been so depressed for the last 25 years? ,
The average full time wage In 2000 was 19k, to have kept up with REAL RPI inflation that would need to be 44k today, it is in fact 36k so the spending power of the average wage has done nothing but fall for 25 years.
So this shortage you talk of is not really a shortage of workers, we have 9 million nonwork adults. it is really more shortage of jobs that pay enough to live on.
The purchasing power of the pound has dropped significantly. This is wealth transfer in action.
Prices will soar every year. BoE is itching to begin QE and ZIRP policy, net immigration is set to be in the millions per year (although most will arrive on a beach with no paperwork.
Why lie? Most people coming to the UK don't arrive on a beach, and never have done. It's in the single digits by percentage. But that probably spoils your narrative.
40k a year boat immigrants doesn't match 750k legal migrants but this will fall as the clampdown on visas takes holdml.
Bro you keep saying price will go down of houses from the day you opened your mouth
5:46 but that is 2% cpi. We should really be using RPI, because that includes housing costs.
💯 this
All this is mostly irrelevant until incomes catch up, inflation figures are still being used by employers to give out lower pay rises, even though they didn't give them during the period inflation was high. There is still a cost of living crisis in the UK.
Less landlords higher rent🤑🤑🤑
Better invest in Moldavia instead in a mature market with low supply and sponsored by the mum and dad bank..
No chance
Blackrock, Blackstone, Edmond de Rothschild, Hines, Greystar are buying everything that private second homeowners are going to have to sell with higher taxes....this is a systemic issue. Build to rent is expected to increase 2.5 times by 2030. The inevitability will be you won't own anything and you 'must' be happy.
illuminati plans
Only the 'poor' will not own anything and those gen Z people who wish to consume more than they make. In most parts of the UK houses are still affordable even on a 25k salary, especially in the NW/Yorkshire etc. Yes, if you wish to move out of your family home at 18 and pay rent and eat out everyday, then ofcourse you dont have money to buy anything. But if you stay at home, live rent free, eat at home, live way below your means, i can assure you that anyone by the age of 28/30 can have well over 100/150k saved up. I am not making these figures up as i have lived it and so have my younger siblings and cousins who are currently 20-30 years old and every one of them has their own property. Some of them have even paid it off by 30 like me.
@@HDY0903 'still affordable even on a 25k salary'? well. not in London mate or surrey. yeah the minimum salary is 23-25k , however, you cannot buy a house near or in London. you need to go up north.
@@HS-sr9ww yes, that is why i mentioned NW/Yorkshire. Post covid you just dont need to be any where near London. Me and my wife have worked from home for over 4 years now. Im self employed, but she is part time employed and they only go in office once every 6 months.
@@HDY0903 This comment is laughable. Even if you save for a house to the age of 30 and save every penny. It won't make much of a difference as houses in South are out of the reach for you. Even if you save the dreamed 100k, the price of a house is around £300k - the bank will not give you £200k for the mortgage on that wage. Dream on.
£££ House Prices can only go in one direction: Up Up Up £££
Way overpriced now
I find it really strange that they keep saying inflation is down when felt inflation (food shopping prices etc.) is still really high. Is that a bank of England statistic trick or there are other factors
I think inflation (annual rise in certain prices) probably is down, and this is important but as you say, prices are still a) high and b) rising (which is not to be confused with a rise in inflation)
inflation is just a measure of how fast costs are increasing. When inflation goes down it doesn't mean prices go down it means that the rate of increase in their pricing decreases
On strict fundamentals, how on earth can house prices 'soar' from the nosebleed levels they've already attained? I understand 'how' of course: it will have nothing to do with economics and everything to do with politics! When all MPs became property owners/landlords (not just the Tory landed-gentry types) this was inevitable. Supporting house price hyperinflation is going to finally wreck the UK economy.
They'll soar if the supply of suitable homes becomes increasingly limited relative to demand.
Supply is relatively fixed and demand is going through the roof
The Government really need to step in on private equity firms buying up houses before it becomes a major problem but as always they won't intervene and we'll pay for it in the future.
Private Equity should/must be banned worldwide by govts.
It's the plan. Agenda 2030. You will own nothing and be happy. Blackrock & WEF (World Economic Forum)
Absolutely
It's the governments plan....😂😂😂
Unless we vote Jeremy corbyn nothing will change
The best time to buy a house was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.
word
Not necessarily. This makes multiple assumptions - the most prominent and universal of which is that it assumes one does not have another mutually exclusive asset with greater rate of return in which to deploy capital... and many people will have such an option ;)
Houses will double every year for the next 10 years. We will all be billionairs while doing nothing to get that money we can all retire at 40 so no one will need to work. The garden of Eden is here. All Governments will always back homeowners and make the poor pay for us homeowners as homeowners are the majority.
This again??? It's never good to loan money. The thing is to accumulate money on one's account, expect others to do the same, and break everything apart.
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Under labour there will be a huge recession in no time. Interest rates have started rising and labour are causing inflation. Crazy how wrong you are in just 10 days 😂
this is ridiculous. i should've moved out of my parents house years ago, and the way this housing crisis is looking i won't be moving out anytime soon either. i don't think the "housing crisis" would be as bad if they didn't just hand out free houses to illegals. where's my free house, it's the least they could do for me as they've been f-ing over me and mine for my whole life
I love the content and always had that feeling I know that face from somewhere. Then it came to me, Cycling Time trials!! A fan of both of your skills.
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Well, if you're a private Equity Firm or you're sleeping on a mattress full of money, then yeah, it's okay to buy a house. Other than that, I think most people are going to find it hard to eat
Get a van / motorhome, sack paying mortgages - rent & rip off utilities!
The economy across the globe will go into a depression soon enough, crypto & silver are the assets to have - to beat inflation.
Landlords are exiting the market, this will have a large effect & bring house prices down. The world is in for one hell of a shock!!
And where did you study economics? Hang on, you know nothing at all about it
@@jontalbot1 Someone else living in denial, wakey wakey!
I am a house and I can attest that my price will go up next year.🏠
lol
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It will. pound will tank.
Yep, look what Canada did. Massive immigration PRICES WILL ROCKET !
This is such a fukcin depressing reality
If the Banks & Economists say interest rates are going to drop to 2.75% to 3.75% you know their going back to 0% 😂
They're never going back to 0%. Not unless there's another GFC/pandemic or other major black swan event.
I don't know about 0% but they do seem to underestimate changes.
@@palmtree-e2l The Chinese economy says hold my beer GFC! 😂
If prices 'soar' again after frankly soaring for years and years at this stage, then interest rates will have to go to 10%+ and people will default en-masse. The banks aren't going to let the older mortgage debts inflate away, trust me. Banks don't lose. History tells you as much.
Interest rates don't rise as a result of house price increases.
@@VTh-f5x I mean the interest rates banks apply to mortgages, which closely mirror the 10-year bond yield. Not the interest rates that are set by the Bank of England.
Reminds me of 2008
Thats it, and then banks buy up the defaulted property and control the rental market.
@@robc1014 Yes, sadly. Taxpayer should have never consented to the debt jubilee of 2008. We weren't awarded dividends for our ownership of the banks, and now that the banks are being sold off by the Treasury back into private hands, some of them are already admitting to pursuing rental income e.g. Lloyds.
UK is its own worst enemy, you'd think 16 years wouldn't be long enough to forget what happened, but it has been long enough.
First buy up the property, then slowly release them onto the market to control the supply. This will maintain the returns on your investment.
Actually millions who are renting from private landlords do not wish to buy their own home. They know the usurious banking corporate landlords will squeeze them to the max. People wake up to Islam. Islam supports the traditional family.
Look how successful Islamic economies are. All those scientific breakthroughs in the Middle East
I'd wager the vast majority of renters would buy if they could.
How do you think Islam provides any alternative to traditional banking?
It’s not about if they could. The usurious bankers are trying to reel people into taking on mortgages. Then, the usurious bankers will jack up the rates putting so much pressure on UK traditional families that will end in divorce, and as we know all the homes will be given to single mothers and their children while landless fathers go out and work stupid hours paying for these single mothers. This is the design of the usurious bankers’ modernity. If the usurious bankers wanted to support traditional families they would support the males by making them financially strong and the single mothers would not divorce and be attracted to the free homes given to them paid for by landless fathers.
Islam supports the traditional family. We have dark designs in the UK by demonic forces.
I personally rent out my property in the UK at 50% market rate to a traditional family. I’m trying to do my bit and I speak out against usury by first using the word usury. It is a small step. You do your bit and start using the word usury.
@@D-A-H8585 that's good of you, less good of you because you'd only do so to a 'traditional family' I'd say. But you haven't actually answered my question.
You may be Muslim and charging less but what does Islam as a system or institution provide that improves upon traditional banking. It's not a trick question I'm genuinely curious.
be helpful if we had data about HOUSEHOLD v's average income re mortgages.
This seems like great news. I am almost done reaching my downpayment and I hope to get into the property ladder by the end of this year or the beginning of 2025!
Congrats, you may then be mortgage free by 2100 😂
@@monkeh86 I'm not on a race, I plan the long run. Life is not a sprint, for me is a marathon.
The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?