I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and i'm eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
My CFA, Laurel Ann Watkins, is a renowned figure in her field. I recommend researching her name online; you’ll find all her credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, she is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2025
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Thank you for your video..... The current global economy remains challenging, with central banks maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation, creating tighter lending conditions and slowing consumer and corporate spending. This environment is pressuring sectors like housing, retail, and stocks, while rising unemployment remains a concern. Diversified portfolios, including stocks and alternative assets like cryptocurrencies, are essential for managing risk and volatility, alongside balanced trading strategies. Personally, I’ve grown my portfolio from $130k to $632k in just a few months, thanks to Milton Harper’s exceptional expertise and traditional trading acumen, which have been invaluable in navigating this ever-evolving market...
My 2 cents is: If you want to make money on the stock market, you need to understand the investors not the companies. If you think investors are rational, just look at crypto currencies. This is really hard to swallow for me.
The funny thing is Charles MacKay was one of the most bullish investors in the British railroad bubble even though he recognized historical bubbles and wrote about them. He believed that the railroad bubble was not a bubble. Very ironic.
Funny. Similarly, Stephen Greenspan wrote a book about gullibility and how to not get scammed, and he got scammed by and lost his savings to his friend Bernie Madoff.
@@TimeToGetIntense There's a Chinese documentary about online scams. One scammer said, everyone is capable of being scammed, and if they (scammers) fail, it's because they were using the wrong script.
I don't like picking individual stocks because of the risk, you can have all of the metrics in the world and that will not stop it from geopolitical events or macroeconomic events occurring or just things you don't really know about the company that can crash the price or get it delisted. Like it happened with your russian stocks and other that crashed, never recovered. When you invest in broad market, the risk is reduced, yes, some companies will do bad, but there is a high likelihood that others, even new ones which I as investor could never predicted, that enter the index, will do phenomenal . i rather invest in specific sector than 1 individual stock
There is no risk in stock pricking. If you buy dividend ETF, it will have 50% if money invested in 10 stocks. So if you buy 10 great quality stocks by yourself than their is no additional risk compared to ETFs.
In the 6 years from Dec 2018 through Dec 2024, the S&P500 compounded at a 15.3% cagr: 7.3% cagr from multiple expansion (from 19 to 29) and 8% from earnings growth (from 132 to 210). In order to get a meager 10% return going forward, the multiple must stay in the 30s, margins must stay high and earnings growth must accelerate: a lot of must's. This is what makes no sense.
Thats why every time in history had S&P 500 forward PE above 22 it delivered very low 10Y returns. Its simple math. Long term PE average is 19 and last year ended with PE 25. So drop to PE 19 will erase years of EPS growth and deliver low 10Y returns.
AI stocks will dominate 2025. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take any other recommendations you make to enable me make additions to a $120K portfolio to enhance overall performance of my portfolio this year
Invest in S&P 500 ETF, for as long as possible. Do it as often as you can. Try not to withdraw this money and let compounding do its work. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
Exactly, many investors are overly focused on potential profits, forgetting that the market has both ups and downs. Securing your financial future requires patience and a strong understanding of market trends to identify the right stocks for investment. For instance, I made over $260k in profits during Q4 of 2021. The key to profitable investing is truly understanding market behavior.
I consistently recommend ELEANOR KATE FENN as my top choice. She is well-known for her expertise in financial markets and has an impressive track record. I highly endorse her services.
I just looked up her website on google and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I have sent her an email hope she gets back to me soon. Thanks
YES, it does not make sense! I'm saying that after about 5+ years of watching Sven videos. Problem with ''value'' investing is buying cheap shitty stocks (i.e. BABA, INTEL etc.) and avoiding expensive but good ones, because big spooky crash is always around the corner. In other words going AGAINST THE MARKET and buying stock that are in downtrend. Yes, with value investing it is possible to avoid crash, but you also avoid returns. Don't know about you, but for me its sounds better to be up 100% with 30% crash, than 10% up and avoiding crash...
The sad thing is that even with "intelligent" value investing at the end you are not safe from a crash caused by the "stupid" herd-style ETF investing.
Sven was down 40% in 2022 so he didn't even avoid the crash. stocks are correlated if you're scared of crashes that much you shouldn't have a 100% stock portfolio
I think also that after they printed so much money during Covid, this has devaluated the dollar and all this extra dollars are pouring into the market, that's why we see real estate, stocks, etc in all time highs. The value of FIAT is not the same and we need to be invested to at least not loose it. If you think the market is too pricy at least keep your money in gold.
Sven, I really enjoy your content. I however have to push back on your value investing thesis. I think the reason you have trouble beating the market in a bull run is that you are focused on low risk, low reward stocks. If you look for low risk, high return stocks you will find them. They are harder to find and hold but worth it in the long run.
When making money off companies that will never be profitable it makes no sense, once non profitable or overvalued companies crash then value investing goes back in style.
I’m retired, living off my investments. 3 months ago I was 65% stocks (3/1 US/OUS), 10% cash, 15%bonds and 10% precious metals stocks. Now I’m 45/30/13/12. Less stocks, more cash and gold stocks.
I know Peter Lynch and others like Buffett say don't waste time on macroeconomics. However, the intelligent investors (like Lynch and Buffett) I'm sure research and consider this stuff, in their decision making. (An example is what Sven presents around 1:40 concerning $2T in buy backs and inflows.) As Sven says, don't believe all of what they say, believe what they do. Thanks again sir, for sharing this insight ! It's interesting and very helpful to my investment decision making.
I think Lynch & Buffett say don't waste time on macroeconomics because the best results are gained over a long time frame. So you should look to hold a stock for several years. But they're not going to ignore macroeconomics altogether when they can gain from it. Buffett has bought more equities in market crashes & has said he prefers his stocks to go down so he can buy more at low prices.
@@Andygb78 Yes; good points. Well said, I mainly wanted to thank Sven for more of his insights. And also to point out that the professionals (like Sven, et. al.) research and consider macroeconomics, to some degree. For example, I had heard of buy backs and inflows pushing prices higher, but seeing Sven actually quantify it (ballpark $2T), gives me more confidence in my understanding of what's happening in the stock market . Thanks....
The Big Question is: where can we find "international deep value" - funds, ETFs etc? I remember last year looking for the same for "emerging markets quality value" - and getting nowhere
One year doesn't mean anything. The Hang Seng index, for instance, trades around 10x earnings. That means that you can find good businesses with clean balance sheets trading at 5-10x earnings, distributing 7-10% through dividends and buybacks. With meager 5% growth and an 8% yield, you are already at a 13% cagr. If the multiple expands from 7x to 15x over 5-10 years, that is an additional 15-7% cagr, for a 28-20% total cagr. Not bad for "getting nowhere", even if multiples stay where they are.
@@mathewwilson9776that’s right, for example I bought a stock in china that has ridiculous valuations (1.7x PE) and is a growing business. Hope it’s not a fraud, I’ve done all my due diligence and it seems all ok. In their dividend policy they distribuite at least 10% of income, so a 5.8% yield+ 90% of income invested for business espansion. As every company in china you have lot of competition, but at these valuations risk/reward ratio is highly favorable. Oh and I forgot net cash is more than what you pay for it.
This is a very interesting topic. Here is a case study to consider: Seth Klarman is one of the most iconic and well respected value managers in the hedge fund industry. His firm Baupost has seen $7B of outflows in the last 3 years. The reason is that his fund has returned 4%/year since 2014, while the S&P has returned 15%. If you’re a value investor and that style of investing has produced sub-par results for the last decade how long should you wait before considering a new investment style? Is Klarman being patient or being arrogant after a decade of massive underperformance?
What do you mean "until there is automatic indexing and buybacks"? They are already a thing. Did you mean "for as long as there is..." instead of "until..."?
Value investing is good if you don't care about timing. If you care about timing, you need to understand supply and demand. If you want the ideal, be good at both. Most people are good at neither.
Serious question - are things different now? The top companies have obscene amounts of free cash flow that could not have been conceived of just a few years ago. Don't these companies justify higher p/e ratios?
I underperformed the market for now but I’m exposed to high quality stocks that are IMHO really undervalued, compared to a market PE of 35. Despite that since I started investing in early 2022 I managed to compound a good 19% annually, although I made many mistakes especially in 2022 (three years is nothing, maybe it’s just luck, but I’m quite satisfied).My goal is to consistently perform well even during possible future market downturns and try to keep a >10% CAGR over the long term.
What has been bugging me is that we also have record amounts in money markets. I hear more portfolio managers and financial advisors more nervous than anything about putting new assets into the market without a natural correction. As a retail investor, I'm sitting earning 4% in money market and have the same belief. There are a lot of companies that miss earnings lately and it is taking them back to where they were a year ago or much further. However, the big 7 (which are over 1/3 of the S&P 500) seem to be immune to these violent 20-25% reactions. Almost like the government has a mandate to buy those dips because of the cascade down it could cause in the massive amount parked in S&P 500 index funds/etfs. If the retail consumer is strapped with credit card deliquencies at all time highs, car repos at all time highs, etc they don't have the money to buy the products these 7 are pushing, so how can any of them be growing compared to three years ago when all the free government stimulus money was floating around.
Sven do you see any opportunity in Greek stocks? PE ratios are really low (sub 10) for companies like Metlen, the big 4 banks and you also have OPAP giving 10% dividend yield for the past 4 years. Is it a value trap? Or is the market not paying too much attention?
Hi Sven, if you're holding some cash now in addition to stocks, and the market would crash around 40%, how do you decide then which companies are the best buys? Would you go for the "big guys" like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, etc, or do you keep looking for which companies are most undervalued?
I was talking to a friend today and he was saying he was buying the QQQ ETF and if it declined he would just go 'all in'... saying stocks always go up in lets say 15 yrs.
Cheap stocks are for the most part cheap for a reason. SP500 P/E is surely on the high side but it can be partially explained by rising profitability (roughly double in the last 30 yrs)
At this point, only unemployment could "turn the ship" of massive capital flows into passive cap-weighted investment strategies. Otherwise, the equilibrium state will be reached when valuations are high enough to equalize the capital inflow of savers proportional to their income, plus dividends and buybacks, with the capital outflow of retirees proportional to asset values.
it could keep on going forever if it's inflated away. by looks of it, they will be printing more and more usa dollars. that means more stock price increasing. it's pure inflation. but stocks are a good hedge against inflation. especially for people who can't invest in bonds for some reason such as low returns. if bonds give 4% but inflation money printing press is 10% for next 10 years. stocks will probably be going up 10% each year. how much of it will be in value stocks vs overpriced dividend stocks vs overpriced bubble stocks i have no idea. but at this point i think ppl are investing in stock market as hedge against inflation. as inflation is rampant and investment opportunities to protect against inflation non-existent.
@i_like_beer-o2f yep. but there doesn't seem to be enough gold in existence to meet ppls demands. especially given most countries now buy gold and have export bans on it.
What can make it come down though ?? If 60% of the market is auto / passive investors, pension funds, and money gets piled in regardless of price every month, what force will bring prices down ??
Well it already happened in 2020, so that's an example. But it could also just stagnate and go nowhere for a decade as earnings slowly catch up. Who knows
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios with the markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy and hold'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markets and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Jessica Dawn Walters for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her
Glad to see XAI709K leading the charge. One thing to note about XAI709K tokenomics that was glossed over is that usage of the XAI709K Network burns, lowering supply and well... You know the rest ;)
People are obsessed with momentary crashes and overlook what matters: long term multiple expansion/contraction cycles. In 2000-2014, you had 2 crashes, a slow one in 2000-2002, and a fast one in 2008. So what? What matters is that large caps traded above 30x earnings in 2000 and at 10-15x earnings 14 years later, offsetting all the growth that businesses produced. That's the real risk. US large caps trade above 30x earnings today. What will happen tomorrow, nobody knows. Fortunately, we know two things. 1. If we enter a new multiple contraction cycle and multiples remain in the 10s in 15-20 years, anybody holding 30-40x multiples today is screwed again (specially if they are in their 40s and 50s). 2. A value portfolio compounded at 14% in 2000-2014 and at 18% in 1965-1982, despite large caps returning nothing. The right thing to do thus seems very obvious to anybody who understands this and is willing to work a little.
I stopped buying into the silver tsunami theories years ago because they never have the promised impact. Additionally, a lot more people know about index investing nowadays. That means more people are more likely to put money into the market each year. My guess is boomers selling doesn't significantly affect index/ETF prices.
@@user-zk6fc3dw9e You are probably correct. But I cannot imagine what else will break this paradigm. If most people invest into stock market and it's going up and nobody is taking money out, there's not valuation too high. The only other effect is that as stocks become pricier compared to wages, less units of a stock each person can buy with their monthly DCA. So that has to dampen the curve at some point. As far as society goes, I hear so many bitcoin discussions in random bars now, it's gotta signal a top of some kind.
@@user-zk6fc3dw9e If they even sell at all. Some boomers will keep saving for their children. Others will keep saving because they won't want to spend it all...
I saw the snowmobile sector grow, skyrocket and crash in Minnesota. Bubbles for sure. We have a bubble. We all know it's a bubble. Buffet knows it is a bubble. It won't go to the moon. It will fall 50% just like clock work, reliable cycle in the long term. This is why we have stocks for speculators chasing price and bonds for investors, who know their returns. Balance. Seek 50/50. The stocks will fall by 50%. I don't know when. Happens every decade. We are over due.
One company will win the AI race and become 50% of the market. Then it will buy all of the energy and mining stocks, so it can build computer and robot factories. The only value stocks with value will be energy, mining, logistics, and the like.
Sorry to tell you but valuations did not go up that much in past 40 years as you suggest. Average adjusted PE is around 19 for past 30 years. GAAP PE is useless metric and not a valuation tool. Altria had PE 80 in 2020 because of Juul write off but nobody really believe that valuation of tobacco stocks went up to PE 80 because of low rates. Please use the correct valuation metric and that is adjusted PE. Than you will see that SPY trades at similar PE averages like in 90s.
@@Value-Investing It doesn't matter what you think. Only important is what stock market is using to valuate stocks. And market clearly is using adjusted EPS. That's why EPS charts like Fastgraphs are using operating EPS and PE as default. For decades. Check books of Peter Lynch from 90's and you will see these graphs showing correlation between operaring EPS and share prices. Nobody care about GAAP in the market. Check tobacco stocks in past few years. BTI announced huge gaap write off last year and stock is up dozens of percent since than. Because operating profit is real and GAAP is just accounting nonsense.
@@Value-Investing So@younthink that Altria and British American Tobacco are money losing business because of their GAAP earnings dilated by non cash write offs? Does it mean Altria sold less cigarettes, because of their Juul with off. What has write off of past investments have to donwith forward looking stock market? Nothing. That's why these stocks delivered 15% annualy or more to me, despite their bad GAAP earnings. These are not real earnings. Market knows that and that's why market ignored it and tobacco is up dozens of percent.
With PE at 10 you don’t make 10% a year in business ownings. You only make money if you sell higher or you get dividends. If the market forever just says this business is valued at 10, you have dividends only and maybe some buyback yield… I own a lot of value stocks and I can as long as I want be happy that I bought cheap. But if no one wants to buy them back from me?
PE doesn't matter. Only long term EPS growth. Cigna is trading for PE 10 for many years now and still delivered 13% annualy simply from EPS growth. So there are cheap PE stocks with above average growth rates and these do well in long term.
Stocks go up because EPS goes up and share price tracks that. Any other theory is wrong. There is 100% correlation between EPS and share price - Peter Lynch. Thats why Intel is dead money while Nvidia is crushing it. As long as EPS of stock index is going up, price will go up too. Simple math.
XAI709K 200X IN 10 YEARS - so likely another 200x in 10 years=$20 MILLION/XAI709K!!! So getting 1/10 XAI709K $10k today might turn into $2M in 10 years - if one can hold through all the volatility.
On the end market doesn’t make sense to me anymore. Who is right who is wrong no one knows. When S&P500 was at $3000 there was a chance of 50% down now it is at $6000 and there is still chance of 50% done. That would be $3000 when there was also chance of 50% down. So if you stay out of it you did nothing however if you stay in it and dollar cost average you get something. So who is right and who is wrong. Maybe AI knows :)))
Value investing defined by Wall Street as cheap PE stocks does not work. Majority of cheap stocks are terrible companies with no growth and a lot of debt. Junk companies. Real value investing aka above average growing compoany bought at reasonable price works well. Just look at returns of market darlings like Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Broadcom and so on since they have been value stocks with very reasonable PEs and great companies. Real value investing is GARP investing. So 30% grower is value stock even with PE 30 and Shell growing 3% annualy is expensive even at PE 8.
Value investing isn’t about outperforming. As long as I can get my 4% dividend from Verizon while the stock price continues to drop every year, I’m happy
@@user-zk6fc3dw9e it’s because Verizon is a safe investment. The S&P 500 could crash 98% tomorrow and never come back. Whereas with Verizon, you know you’re always going to get that 4% dividend
Passive Investing doesn’t really create a stock market bubble, unfortunately I don’t have the article at the moment but to sum it up it shows how non passive investing stocks are as expensive as the ones in index funds. I believe Joseph Carlson have reviewed this article in one of his videos. Cause Terry Smith was complaining why he’s underperforming the market.
@@SJFyoutube Even as an investor, it is worth using a stop-loss as a risk management tool. While investors typically focus on long-term growth and base their decisions on fundamental analysis, the financial markets can be unpredictable, and unexpected events may lead to significant declines in asset prices. A stop-loss helps protect your portfolio by automatically selling a position if its price falls to a predetermined level. This allows you to limit potential losses and preserve capital for future investments. It can be especially valuable during periods of heightened market volatility or when investing in individual stocks that might be more susceptible to sudden price drops. Using a stop-loss doesn’t mean you’re abandoning a long-term investment mindset. Instead, it shows a disciplined approach to safeguarding your investments, ensuring that temporary market downturns or poor decisions don’t have a disproportionately negative impact on your portfolio. It’s a practical way to balance long-term growth objectives with short-term risk mitigation.
Yes, but, many quality firms with good dividend payouts sit right now at multi year low share prices. I believe linked to the TNX. SP500 at record highs. When, not if, the SP corrects, these quality stocks you talk of paying good dividends, even though they are less volatile (low Beta) to SP they WILL REDUCE FURTHER IN VALUE. Current investors are more like degenerate gamblers and expect 2x returns in a month from Fartcoin or some other such worthless investment
I've just begun learning about value investing, and I've found that many good stocks are undervalued despite their intrinsic value. If you had $200,000 to create a strong investment portfolio, which stocks would you choose for better returns?
I think a good investment portfolio should have three basic things: ETFs for diversification, dividend stocks for cash flow, and leading tech stocks. With your budget, it's a good idea to talk to a fiduciary financial advisor for expert advice.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and i'm eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
My CFA, Laurel Ann Watkins, is a renowned figure in her field. I recommend researching her name online; you’ll find all her credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, she is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2025
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
Her name is Annette Christine Conte can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
Thank you for your video..... The current global economy remains challenging, with central banks maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation, creating tighter lending conditions and slowing consumer and corporate spending. This environment is pressuring sectors like housing, retail, and stocks, while rising unemployment remains a concern. Diversified portfolios, including stocks and alternative assets like cryptocurrencies, are essential for managing risk and volatility, alongside balanced trading strategies. Personally, I’ve grown my portfolio from $130k to $632k in just a few months, thanks to Milton Harper’s exceptional expertise and traditional trading acumen, which have been invaluable in navigating this ever-evolving market...
He's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.
@MiltonHarper
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Milton’s trade signal service.
Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!
Everyone needs more than a Basic Income to be Financially Secured in this present time that there's an Economic Decline.
Sounds like you got a cold; Take care of yourself, winter is here :)
"Trees don't grow to the sky".
Over medium and long term, value always beats sentiment. At the end of the day, cash flow and ROI remain kings.
Too bad the mag 7 are the roi and cashflow kings. Theres your value
@@petermaag9622 Not really. There are others in other industries. Mag 7 are for people that do not care to read 10Qs, 8Ks and so on.
I appreciate you…regularly grounding us and keeping it real.
Very important topic. Casino investing is what we are doing.
My 2 cents is: If you want to make money on the stock market, you need to understand the investors not the companies. If you think investors are rational, just look at crypto currencies. This is really hard to swallow for me.
Amén brother
The funny thing is Charles MacKay was one of the most bullish investors in the British railroad bubble even though he recognized historical bubbles and wrote about them. He believed that the railroad bubble was not a bubble. Very ironic.
Funny. Similarly, Stephen Greenspan wrote a book about gullibility and how to not get scammed, and he got scammed by and lost his savings to his friend Bernie Madoff.
Everyone is susceptible.
That time it was different!
@@TimeToGetIntense There's a Chinese documentary about online scams. One scammer said, everyone is capable of being scammed, and if they (scammers) fail, it's because they were using the wrong script.
Sven your video today is stellar. I can only give you 2 thumbs up for it and a like.
I don't like picking individual stocks because of the risk, you can have all of the metrics in the world and that will not stop it from geopolitical events or macroeconomic events occurring or just things you don't really know about the company that can crash the price or get it delisted. Like it happened with your russian stocks and other that crashed, never recovered. When you invest in broad market, the risk is reduced, yes, some companies will do bad, but there is a high likelihood that others, even new ones which I as investor could never predicted, that enter the index, will do phenomenal . i rather invest in specific sector than 1 individual stock
There is no risk in stock pricking. If you buy dividend ETF, it will have 50% if money invested in 10 stocks. So if you buy 10 great quality stocks by yourself than their is no additional risk compared to ETFs.
In the 6 years from Dec 2018 through Dec 2024, the S&P500 compounded at a 15.3% cagr: 7.3% cagr from multiple expansion (from 19 to 29) and 8% from earnings growth (from 132 to 210).
In order to get a meager 10% return going forward, the multiple must stay in the 30s, margins must stay high and earnings growth must accelerate: a lot of must's. This is what makes no sense.
Don't bet against Elon Must!
Thats why every time in history had S&P 500 forward PE above 22 it delivered very low 10Y returns. Its simple math. Long term PE average is 19 and last year ended with PE 25. So drop to PE 19 will erase years of EPS growth and deliver low 10Y returns.
AI stocks will dominate 2025. Why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA. I'll also take any other recommendations you make to enable me make additions to a $120K portfolio to enhance overall performance of my portfolio this year
Invest in S&P 500 ETF, for as long as possible. Do it as often as you can. Try not to withdraw this money and let compounding do its work. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
Exactly, many investors are overly focused on potential profits, forgetting that the market has both ups and downs. Securing your financial future requires patience and a strong understanding of market trends to identify the right stocks for investment. For instance, I made over $260k in profits during Q4 of 2021. The key to profitable investing is truly understanding market behavior.
How can I find a trusted financial planner like yours?
I consistently recommend ELEANOR KATE FENN as my top choice. She is well-known for her expertise in financial markets and has an impressive track record. I highly endorse her services.
I just looked up her website on google and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I have sent her an email hope she gets back to me soon. Thanks
I can easily predict that the market will keep on climbing higher and higher until it doesn't.
You're wrong. Stonks can only go up!
StoNks will go to sky and then to mars using spacex rocket in parabolic way !!!
The inflows into the US stock market is an indication of world wide nervousness. It's the best dirty shirt in a pile of dirty laundry.
There is too much money in the system, and there is no where to go besides housing or stock market.
I think it is just this simple as you say.
FartCoin is the future.
And Bitcoin, and Gold, and Collectibles, and Art....All inflated.
@@eco-enjoyer How is gold inflated??? 🤔
@@afonsodeportugal Look at chart????😮💨
YES, it does not make sense! I'm saying that after about 5+ years of watching Sven videos. Problem with ''value'' investing is buying cheap shitty stocks (i.e. BABA, INTEL etc.) and avoiding expensive but good ones, because big spooky crash is always around the corner. In other words going AGAINST THE MARKET and buying stock that are in downtrend. Yes, with value investing it is possible to avoid crash, but you also avoid returns. Don't know about you, but for me its sounds better to be up 100% with 30% crash, than 10% up and avoiding crash...
I’d argue that all good investing is value investing. I’m over 20% CAGR over the past 10 years by doing “Value” investing 🙂
The sad thing is that even with "intelligent" value investing at the end you are not safe from a crash caused by the "stupid" herd-style ETF investing.
thanks for sharing:-)
good, one of his followers finally learned.
Sven was down 40% in 2022 so he didn't even avoid the crash. stocks are correlated if you're scared of crashes that much you shouldn't have a 100% stock portfolio
I think also that after they printed so much money during Covid, this has devaluated the dollar and all this extra dollars are pouring into the market, that's why we see real estate, stocks, etc in all time highs.
The value of FIAT is not the same and we need to be invested to at least not loose it.
If you think the market is too pricy at least keep your money in gold.
Sven, I really enjoy your content. I however have to push back on your value investing thesis. I think the reason you have trouble beating the market in a bull run is that you are focused on low risk, low reward stocks. If you look for low risk, high return stocks you will find them. They are harder to find and hold but worth it in the long run.
Gute Besserung, Sven!
When making money off companies that will never be profitable it makes no sense, once non profitable or overvalued companies crash then value investing goes back in style.
I’m retired, living off my investments. 3 months ago I was 65% stocks (3/1 US/OUS), 10% cash, 15%bonds and 10% precious metals stocks. Now I’m 45/30/13/12. Less stocks, more cash and gold stocks.
I know Peter Lynch and others like Buffett say don't waste time on macroeconomics. However, the intelligent investors (like Lynch and Buffett) I'm sure research and consider this stuff, in their decision making. (An example is what Sven presents around 1:40 concerning $2T in buy backs and inflows.) As Sven says, don't believe all of what they say, believe what they do. Thanks again sir, for sharing this insight ! It's interesting and very helpful to my investment decision making.
I think Lynch & Buffett say don't waste time on macroeconomics because the best results are gained over a long time frame. So you should look to hold a stock for several years. But they're not going to ignore macroeconomics altogether when they can gain from it. Buffett has bought more equities in market crashes & has said he prefers his stocks to go down so he can buy more at low prices.
@@Andygb78 Yes; good points. Well said, I mainly wanted to thank Sven for more of his insights. And also to point out that the professionals (like Sven, et. al.) research and consider macroeconomics, to some degree. For example, I had heard of buy backs and inflows pushing prices higher, but seeing Sven actually quantify it (ballpark $2T), gives me more confidence in my understanding of what's happening in the stock market . Thanks....
value investing is in fact becoming more not less effective as a greater number of people employ the ETF DCA strategy and forgo value/price discovery
yes, but then, things usually turn...
The Big Question is: where can we find "international deep value" - funds, ETFs etc? I remember last year looking for the same for "emerging markets quality value" - and getting nowhere
One year doesn't mean anything.
The Hang Seng index, for instance, trades around 10x earnings. That means that you can find good businesses with clean balance sheets trading at 5-10x earnings, distributing 7-10% through dividends and buybacks. With meager 5% growth and an 8% yield, you are already at a 13% cagr. If the multiple expands from 7x to 15x over 5-10 years, that is an additional 15-7% cagr, for a 28-20% total cagr. Not bad for "getting nowhere", even if multiples stay where they are.
@@mathewwilson9776that’s right, for example I bought a stock in china that has ridiculous valuations (1.7x PE) and is a growing business.
Hope it’s not a fraud, I’ve done all my due diligence and it seems all ok.
In their dividend policy they distribuite at least 10% of income, so a 5.8% yield+ 90% of income invested for business espansion.
As every company in china you have lot of competition, but at these valuations risk/reward ratio is highly favorable.
Oh and I forgot net cash is more than what you pay for it.
This is a very interesting topic. Here is a case study to consider: Seth Klarman is one of the most iconic and well respected value managers in the hedge fund industry. His firm Baupost has seen $7B of outflows in the last 3 years. The reason is that his fund has returned 4%/year since 2014, while the S&P has returned 15%. If you’re a value investor and that style of investing has produced sub-par results for the last decade how long should you wait before considering a new investment style? Is Klarman being patient or being arrogant after a decade of massive underperformance?
The same things were saying of Buffett in 2000. Klarman is neither arrogant nor patient. He does what he knows.
What do you mean "until there is automatic indexing and buybacks"? They are already a thing. Did you mean "for as long as there is..." instead of "until..."?
Value investing is good if you don't care about timing.
If you care about timing, you need to understand supply and demand.
If you want the ideal, be good at both.
Most people are good at neither.
Hi Sven,
Could you review, NN group, LGEN, Randstad,
All 8% yielders, mostly stable and bussines needed,2:06. 200million, should be billion🙂
Sven, I like your 10!
Serious question - are things different now? The top companies have obscene amounts of free cash flow that could not have been conceived of just a few years ago. Don't these companies justify higher p/e ratios?
only if those cash flows keep growing into eternity...
Can you look at northland power?
I underperformed the market for now but I’m exposed to high quality stocks that are IMHO really undervalued, compared to a market PE of 35.
Despite that since I started investing in early 2022 I managed to compound a good 19% annually, although I made many mistakes especially in 2022 (three years is nothing, maybe it’s just luck, but I’m quite satisfied).My goal is to consistently perform well even during possible future market downturns and try to keep a >10% CAGR over the long term.
good video Sven
There has been a bust in renewable stocks. Would you recommend any of them?
What has been bugging me is that we also have record amounts in money markets. I hear more portfolio managers and financial advisors more nervous than anything about putting new assets into the market without a natural correction. As a retail investor, I'm sitting earning 4% in money market and have the same belief. There are a lot of companies that miss earnings lately and it is taking them back to where they were a year ago or much further. However, the big 7 (which are over 1/3 of the S&P 500) seem to be immune to these violent 20-25% reactions. Almost like the government has a mandate to buy those dips because of the cascade down it could cause in the massive amount parked in S&P 500 index funds/etfs. If the retail consumer is strapped with credit card deliquencies at all time highs, car repos at all time highs, etc they don't have the money to buy the products these 7 are pushing, so how can any of them be growing compared to three years ago when all the free government stimulus money was floating around.
Sven do you see any opportunity in Greek stocks? PE ratios are really low (sub 10) for companies like Metlen, the big 4 banks and you also have OPAP giving 10% dividend yield for the past 4 years. Is it a value trap? Or is the market not paying too much attention?
Hi Sven, if you're holding some cash now in addition to stocks, and the market would crash around 40%, how do you decide then which companies are the best buys? Would you go for the "big guys" like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, etc, or do you keep looking for which companies are most undervalued?
I was talking to a friend today and he was saying he was buying the QQQ ETF and if it declined he would just go 'all in'... saying stocks always go up in lets say 15 yrs.
Cheap stocks are for the most part cheap for a reason. SP500 P/E is surely on the high side but it can be partially explained by rising profitability (roughly double in the last 30 yrs)
In your opinion, XAI709K for $10? 1 year or so?
Sven doesn’t even have a CFA. I inverse each of his posts and I’m handsomely rich at 35% returns annualized.
Since when?
Funny 😂 but CFAs don’t magically give you better returns. It requires knowing a lot of useless garbage.
I suggest everyone gets involved with stock trading. Cheers!
At this point, only unemployment could "turn the ship" of massive capital flows into passive cap-weighted investment strategies.
Otherwise, the equilibrium state will be reached when valuations are high enough to equalize the capital inflow of savers proportional to their income, plus dividends and buybacks, with the capital outflow of retirees proportional to asset values.
it could keep on going forever if it's inflated away. by looks of it, they will be printing more and more usa dollars. that means more stock price increasing. it's pure inflation. but stocks are a good hedge against inflation. especially for people who can't invest in bonds for some reason such as low returns.
if bonds give 4% but inflation money printing press is 10% for next 10 years. stocks will probably be going up 10% each year.
how much of it will be in value stocks vs overpriced dividend stocks vs overpriced bubble stocks i have no idea.
but at this point i think ppl are investing in stock market as hedge against inflation. as inflation is rampant and investment opportunities to protect against inflation non-existent.
Gold seems to be going up for the same reason
@i_like_beer-o2f yep. but there doesn't seem to be enough gold in existence to meet ppls demands. especially given most countries now buy gold and have export bans on it.
Bears like Sven sound smart, bulls make money...
Until they don't, which is the whole point. But to be fair bulls seem to just get bailed out by the Fed so
I love how you broke down the XAI709K project in your video! Can’t wait to see it skyrocket!
When the inflows inevitably drops so will the market - just like ARKK
What can make it come down though ?? If 60% of the market is auto / passive investors, pension funds, and money gets piled in regardless of price every month, what force will bring prices down ??
People getting scared and selling their index funds.
Well it already happened in 2020, so that's an example. But it could also just stagnate and go nowhere for a decade as earnings slowly catch up. Who knows
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios with the markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy and hold'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markets and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Jessica Dawn Walters for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her
12% is a great return!!! few out there can make it
The XAI709K Army will be known for our generosity
Glad to see XAI709K leading the charge. One thing to note about XAI709K tokenomics that was glossed over is that usage of the XAI709K Network burns, lowering supply and well... You know the rest ;)
The opportunity cost is absolutely hideous when I look at my portfolio.
What do you mean by that? Your stocks aren't moving?
What is “deep value” ?
we will discuss...
Is money always going to keep coming into the market? Or is this expected to reverse when retirees start to spend down?
A 50% crash would NOT be unjustified. A 25% crash would be reasonable.
People are obsessed with momentary crashes and overlook what matters: long term multiple expansion/contraction cycles.
In 2000-2014, you had 2 crashes, a slow one in 2000-2002, and a fast one in 2008. So what?
What matters is that large caps traded above 30x earnings in 2000 and at 10-15x earnings 14 years later, offsetting all the growth that businesses produced. That's the real risk.
US large caps trade above 30x earnings today. What will happen tomorrow, nobody knows. Fortunately, we know two things.
1. If we enter a new multiple contraction cycle and multiples remain in the 10s in 15-20 years, anybody holding 30-40x multiples today is screwed again (specially if they are in their 40s and 50s).
2. A value portfolio compounded at 14% in 2000-2014 and at 18% in 1965-1982, despite large caps returning nothing.
The right thing to do thus seems very obvious to anybody who understands this and is willing to work a little.
love the video , can you talk about grab , plz talk abuot $grab
There's 2 F's in Buffett. At 8:34
"while" not "until". I wonder if younger boomers retiring will produce any selling pressure.
I stopped buying into the silver tsunami theories years ago because they never have the promised impact.
Additionally, a lot more people know about index investing nowadays. That means more people are more likely to put money into the market each year.
My guess is boomers selling doesn't significantly affect index/ETF prices.
@@user-zk6fc3dw9e You are probably correct. But I cannot imagine what else will break this paradigm. If most people invest into stock market and it's going up and nobody is taking money out, there's not valuation too high. The only other effect is that as stocks become pricier compared to wages, less units of a stock each person can buy with their monthly DCA. So that has to dampen the curve at some point. As far as society goes, I hear so many bitcoin discussions in random bars now, it's gotta signal a top of some kind.
@@user-zk6fc3dw9e If they even sell at all. Some boomers will keep saving for their children. Others will keep saving because they won't want to spend it all...
I saw the snowmobile sector grow, skyrocket and crash in Minnesota. Bubbles for sure. We have a bubble. We all know it's a bubble. Buffet knows it is a bubble. It won't go to the moon. It will fall 50% just like clock work, reliable cycle in the long term. This is why we have stocks for speculators chasing price and bonds for investors, who know their returns. Balance. Seek 50/50. The stocks will fall by 50%. I don't know when. Happens every decade. We are over due.
One company will win the AI race and become 50% of the market. Then it will buy all of the energy and mining stocks, so it can build computer and robot factories. The only value stocks with value will be energy, mining, logistics, and the like.
The exchange rate in the DEX is lagging hard
It almost sends 9 times more, I put out vldeo'
Still 100pe stocks everywhere with no earnings to back it. Arm, pltr, applocin, ttd, amd to name a few
Sorry to tell you but valuations did not go up that much in past 40 years as you suggest. Average adjusted PE is around 19 for past 30 years. GAAP PE is useless metric and not a valuation tool. Altria had PE 80 in 2020 because of Juul write off but nobody really believe that valuation of tobacco stocks went up to PE 80 because of low rates. Please use the correct valuation metric and that is adjusted PE. Than you will see that SPY trades at similar PE averages like in 90s.
sorry, but I think the generally accepted accounting principles metric is better than what companies adjust for...
@@Value-Investing It doesn't matter what you think. Only important is what stock market is using to valuate stocks. And market clearly is using adjusted EPS. That's why EPS charts like Fastgraphs are using operating EPS and PE as default. For decades. Check books of Peter Lynch from 90's and you will see these graphs showing correlation between operaring EPS and share prices. Nobody care about GAAP in the market. Check tobacco stocks in past few years. BTI announced huge gaap write off last year and stock is up dozens of percent since than. Because operating profit is real and GAAP is just accounting nonsense.
@@Value-Investing So@younthink that Altria and British American Tobacco are money losing business because of their GAAP earnings dilated by non cash write offs? Does it mean Altria sold less cigarettes, because of their Juul with off. What has write off of past investments have to donwith forward looking stock market? Nothing. That's why these stocks delivered 15% annualy or more to me, despite their bad GAAP earnings. These are not real earnings.
Market knows that and that's why market ignored it and tobacco is up dozens of percent.
With PE at 10 you don’t make 10% a year in business ownings. You only make money if you sell higher or you get dividends. If the market forever just says this business is valued at 10, you have dividends only and maybe some buyback yield…
I own a lot of value stocks and I can as long as I want be happy that I bought cheap. But if no one wants to buy them back from me?
PE doesn't matter. Only long term EPS growth. Cigna is trading for PE 10 for many years now and still delivered 13% annualy simply from EPS growth. So there are cheap PE stocks with above average growth rates and these do well in long term.
Stocks go up because EPS goes up and share price tracks that. Any other theory is wrong. There is 100% correlation between EPS and share price - Peter Lynch. Thats why Intel is dead money while Nvidia is crushing it. As long as EPS of stock index is going up, price will go up too. Simple math.
AI revolution is happening no question about that. Problem is that there is no moat and cap ex will not be reflected in earnings anytime soon.
XAI709K is going to be in the blue sky territory soon. Going to surpass Solana Market cap.
XAI709K 200X IN 10 YEARS - so likely another 200x in 10 years=$20 MILLION/XAI709K!!! So getting 1/10 XAI709K $10k today might turn into $2M in 10 years - if one can hold through all the volatility.
Ai is a total commodity forget mag7
If I only did all in sp500 in 2020 i would be +150%
On the end market doesn’t make sense to me anymore. Who is right who is wrong no one knows. When S&P500 was at $3000 there was a chance of 50% down now it is at $6000 and there is still chance of 50% done. That would be $3000 when there was also chance of 50% down. So if you stay out of it you did nothing however if you stay in it and dollar cost average you get something. So who is right and who is wrong. Maybe AI knows :)))
Value investing defined by Wall Street as cheap PE stocks does not work. Majority of cheap stocks are terrible companies with no growth and a lot of debt. Junk companies. Real value investing aka above average growing compoany bought at reasonable price works well. Just look at returns of market darlings like Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Broadcom and so on since they have been value stocks with very reasonable PEs and great companies. Real value investing is GARP investing. So 30% grower is value stock even with PE 30 and Shell growing 3% annualy is expensive even at PE 8.
Irrational excuberance
Ive stared buying $XAI709K ,and staked them.
Sven ‘gezondheid’ you sound a bit verkouden😂
een beetje :-)) gaat wel beter, bedankt
Value investing isn’t about outperforming. As long as I can get my 4% dividend from Verizon while the stock price continues to drop every year, I’m happy
What!? You're fine getting a 4% dividend on a smaller and smaller piece of the pie as the share price drops? No thanks. Horrible strategy.
Enjoy trying to beat inflation on that 😂😂😂
@@user-zk6fc3dw9e it’s because Verizon is a safe investment. The S&P 500 could crash 98% tomorrow and never come back. Whereas with Verizon, you know you’re always going to get that 4% dividend
@@user-zk6fc3dw9e If you are only getting 4% you could get that from treasuries and not have the drop, that's an insane strategy he has there!
Dont feel the troll people..he is being sarcastic. if not... ouch
Can't believe I almost missed out on XRP and XAI709K! Thanks for the heads-up in your video!
Passive Investing doesn’t really create a stock market bubble, unfortunately I don’t have the article at the moment but to sum it up it shows how non passive investing stocks are as expensive as the ones in index funds.
I believe Joseph Carlson have reviewed this article in one of his videos. Cause Terry Smith was complaining why he’s underperforming the market.
XAI709K will dominate this cycle
Where do you buy XAI709K?
Stocks willo go up untill no more, This comment is sign of a bubble.
Just set a stop loss on position, you don't need to hold the stock forever.
@@SJFyoutube Even as an investor, it is worth using a stop-loss as a risk management tool. While investors typically focus on long-term growth and base their decisions on fundamental analysis, the financial markets can be unpredictable, and unexpected events may lead to significant declines in asset prices.
A stop-loss helps protect your portfolio by automatically selling a position if its price falls to a predetermined level. This allows you to limit potential losses and preserve capital for future investments. It can be especially valuable during periods of heightened market volatility or when investing in individual stocks that might be more susceptible to sudden price drops.
Using a stop-loss doesn’t mean you’re abandoning a long-term investment mindset. Instead, it shows a disciplined approach to safeguarding your investments, ensuring that temporary market downturns or poor decisions don’t have a disproportionately negative impact on your portfolio. It’s a practical way to balance long-term growth objectives with short-term risk mitigation.
Thank you, XAI709K is next GEN
To answer the question in your title: no it doesn't.
haha
agreed on XAI709K 36-38x coming up
Thinking of swapping my USDT for XAI709K$. I believe XAI709K$ is the future
I hold XAI709K and I'm WAY up!😊
Good morning XAI709K Community!! Let’s get ready for a December to remember! AEOD all eyes on XAI709K
Even in the volatility, I still see XAI709K coming out strong 🚀
XAI709K Pumping🚀🚀🚀
XAI709K and AERO will be huge.
XAI709K is looking juicy. 🥭
Forget Shiba and Dogecoin. The next Bull runner gonna be XAI709K$
Yes, but, many quality firms with good dividend payouts sit right now at multi year low share prices. I believe linked to the TNX. SP500 at record highs. When, not if, the SP corrects, these quality stocks you talk of paying good dividends, even though they are less volatile (low Beta) to SP they WILL REDUCE FURTHER IN VALUE. Current investors are more like degenerate gamblers and expect 2x returns in a month from Fartcoin or some other such worthless investment
It looks XAI709K is in right position.
I am all in on XAI709K. Sit back and watch it explode to the moon! 🔥🚀🔥🚀🔥🚀
I think XAI709K might hit 10$ in the next 2-3 weeks
SOLANA DOWN, XAI709K UP 🏆