More fears remain over Chinese economy following Evergrande collapse
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ก.ย. 2021
- Mike Bird, Asia business and finance editor at The Economist, joins The Exchange with his outlook for Chinese stocks and what the Chinese government may do to bail out Evergrande. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/2NGeIvi
China’s “highly distressed” real estate companies are at risk of collapse as the country’s highly indebted developer Evergrande is on the brink of default, warns AllianceBernstein’s Jenny Zeng.
Speaking with CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Friday, the co-head of Asia fixed income at AllianceBernstein warned of a “domino effect” from a potential Evergrande collapse.
“In the offshore dollar market, there is a considerable large portion of developers (who) are implied to be highly distressed,” Zeng said. These developers “can’t survive much longer” if the refinancing channel remains shut for a prolonged period, she added.
Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, is crumbling under the weight of more than $300 billion of debt and warned more than once it could default. Banks have reportedly declined to extend new loans to buyers of uncompleted Evergrande residential projects, while ratings agencies have repeatedly downgraded the firm, citing its liquidity crunch.
The financial position of the other Chinese property developers also took a hit following rules outlined by the Chinese government to rein in borrowing costs of the real estate firms. The measures included placing a cap on debt in relation to a company’s cash flows, assets and capital levels.
While the struggling developers are tiny individually, compared to Evergrande, they make up about 10%-15% of the total market on aggregate, Zeng said. She warned that a collapse could result in a “systemic” spillover to other parts of the economy.
“Once it starts, it takes much more from a policy perspective to stop it than to prevent it from happening,” she added.
Taken on its own, the financial or social risks associated directly with Evergrande itself are actually “reasonably manageable,” Zeng said. She cited the fragmentation of the Chinese property market as a reason behind this.
“Despite Evergrande’s size - we all know it is the largest developer in China, probably the largest in the world - [it] still accounts for only 4% and now it’s even less of the total annual sales market,” Zeng said. “The debt, particularly the onshore debt, is well collateralized.”
China’s ‘Lehman moment’?
Some economists have warned that the collapse of Evergrande could become China’s “Lehman moment” - a reference to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, which triggered the 2008 global financial crisis.
However, Capital Economics senior global economist Simon MacAdam described that narrative as “wide of the mark.”
“On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market turbulence,” MacAdam said in a note Thursday. “Even if it were the first of many property developers to go bust in China, we suspect it would take a policy misstep for this to cause a sharp slowdown in its economy.”
As of Friday’s close, the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares have plunged more than 80% year to date.
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People are so docile right now.* *It is almost as if good government means when the politicians lie to us for our own good,* *for the public good,* *and bad government is when politicians lie for their own selfish interests.*
That's right.
Investment should be what every wise person should engage in.
Good government is good politics.
But these days they are not trusted.
Talking about investment. __I'm even afraid of anything concerning lnvesment..but a lot of people are benefiting from it. What am I doing wrong?__.
If there is a real life movie of Mr. Potato, this guy would be perfect.
It looks as if the nose, mustache and glasses are fake.
This person has a real-life Insta filter face. Maybe it’s the lighting? Poor guy. They did him dirty.
Hahahahaha
He's consumed his share of soy
300 billion at current estimates as soon as it unravels it will be worse.
@@roxbee97abc yes very likely
I've always wanted a pair of those nose and mustache glasses.
Reminds me of a New Yorker cartoon. The professional is sitting behind a desk wearing a Bozo suit and wig. The client says: "you must be really good" (to be able to pull off such a stunt). This guy is either really good or some sort of a clown.
YES! Thats what it reminded me of😂😂😂 with an Ace Ventura haircut to top it off, epic styling!
I love the internet
@@zanmatoshin877 It could be because of China defamation laws, they sued the Citron guy and it cost him millions for saying Evergrande was going to meltdown, in 2012. So this Economist reporter is using a fake name and Marx Brothers fake nose and glasses.
INDIA SHOULD WAGE WAR ON ENGLAND.THEY LOOTED ALL THE GOLD IN INDIA.
everytime they say theres nothing to worry about, thats when you worry
I thought this was some parody, I can't take him seriously
lol
Guy grew a moustache to be taken seriously 😂
This guy looks like a 18 year old kid. It's hard to take serious with his appearance. Reminds me of those youtubers shilling crap coins.
He's in disguise.
Despite the comical / unprofessional appearance, he does know what he’s talking about. Instead of insulting him, let’s encourage him to face his insecurities and show up as who he is, not a mockery of himself.
I visited and travelled from South to Beijing in China for a month in February 2016. I was shocked by the massive incomplete building projects everywhere from apartments to bridges - abandoned and from the weather effects had been abandoned for a few years. Not much in western MSN back then.
I was there for 9 yrs. Chinese construction is shoddy at best
We know now where Waldo was.
You can not own land in China. The developer leases the land for 70 years from the local government
same everywhere . 99 year lease .
@@Q_QQ_Q uh, no, you can own land fee simple absolute in many nations.
Yes, the local government owns the land and would juiced up the price, that's the beginning of the property build up. Then Xi and his 3 red lines put the kibosh on these guys. This one may deserve to go under, but it's done pretty too late.
@@Q_QQ_Q no we own the property
Tom Selleck nerdy son is correct.
It's going to be big
He looks like a 15 yo and trying to be a man by growing his mustache :D
if you're cooking on the stove, does that mean your new secret boyfriend is better in bed than Richard?
Good catch!
INDIA SHOULD WAGE WAR ON ENGLAND THEY LOOTED ALL THE GOLD IN INDIA.
ENGLAND SHOULD GIVE KOHINOOR DIAMOND TO INDIA.
I honestly clicked just cause of the thumbnail, thought he was wearing a pair of Groucho glasses..
Me too... I had to go back to find it... thought it was an SNL skit
Real life Ned Flanders.
Now, I can't unsee it
Lol the subject is so serious.. but all the comments are about this hipster economist and his moustache
And thats the reason why the economy will tank, because that is about the only thing this current society values, memes and jokes and getting rich quick. Mother of all bubbles powered by the same idiots that powered the 07 crash and now will be powered by the children of the idiots too.
No future to mankind
The thumbnail made me click. His nose and mustache doesn’t even seem real lol
check again
He is using the glasses, moustache, nose gag.
@@felixf4378 waka waka
same
@@felixf4378 lol!
He should shave and get some Harry Potter glasses. He's got the accent down perfect!
He looks like and older harry potter.
When I was a kid I had glasses with that same nose and mustache 😂
Hahahha. I had to do a double take. The lighting on his nose totally makes it.
Damn you just make my day. Thanks man
Hahahahaha
😂
He looks like a child wearing a Halloween glasses/nose/moustache combo.
true lol
lmao
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 damnnnnn daniel
Didn't know Mario does stocks.
Guess that explains his addiction to Gold Coins.
Are we suppose to feel bad for Evergrande? Cry me a river
This is the best guy to put on for this chaos
They probably gonna disable comments on this vid very soon but I'm happy I was one of the lucky ones to read all of them before that happens
It was just a case of bad lighting. The producers are to blame though. They let this happen and made it the thumbnail. If I were him I wouldn't go on the show again because whatever they paid him to go on last night wasn't enough and they didn't support him with proper lighting. Lol
I love how all the comments are just roasting this poor guy
Had to watch again, didn't know what they were discussing. That Mustache was very distracting, the first time I watched it the nose REALLY got my attention lmao. Im probably gonna be here all day. Keep losing focus on the topic.
I did not even notice any of those things it was so interesting to know
How to outperform the stock market; read thousands of annual reports, learn about margin of safety , buy undervalued stocks , insider information and seek professional help.
The problem with most investors is seeking instant results instead of being patient. patient is a virtue that is highly applicable in the financial market. it's not a get rich quick scheme.
I always want to be trading something at my early stages of coming into the market which made me FOMO resulting in me losing a lot of money. At one point I had to use a coach in the person of *Jessica Meador Jones* who grew my $115k capital to $175K in 3 months.
Exactly, i will never go into this market without guidance, please who is this coach that helped you, can you possibly do a referral?
It will be a financial error to invest without any form of professional advice or guidance, Anyways just google her and see what her services are like.
I seek out help from tea leaves
Imagine thinking you look cool with this fit.
Bad lighting. Not a bad fit
Mr Mike B is the best interviewee on CNBC for quite some time
The rich stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping and the poor stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich
“If the rich spend like the poor, and the poor spend like the rich, then the rich spend like the rich and the poor spend like the poor.” - Me, in my infinite and unparalled wisdom
Putting all your eggs in one, over leveraged basket can't go bad right?
The thing is Evergrande has eggs in a large number of baskets. It knew it was going to fail eventually. It diversified into so many sectors and bought so many bank bonds that it might take all of them down. It's plan was to force the government to bail them out or the economy will collapse.
I thought he had a filter because of his nose
He looks like he's wearing a disguise.
He stuck his nose up a snowman's butt.
like a kid lol
Now Australians really need to go out and stock up on toilet paper!
Thanks, this is good analysis.
I am here for the moustache
After COVID...every other guy in my office now dresses like Mike Bird!
We have a huge problem and I only see comments about the guy's appearance
I think he is still in primary school. He is filling in for his father the real mike bird
I think Chairman Mao put it well a long time ago, "May you live in interesting times." Now, where's the popcorn?
poor guy, doing a great job but that lighting is not helping him.
Dude, way to rock that mustache and hair. Seriously my man you can own that look for the remainder of your life and make it into a brand!
He looks like 15 and 40 at the same time.
I just want to note that some western journalists or investors warned about this specific company, _years_ ago, and were punished by the ccp for doing so.
China owns americas politicans and stars
Is he wearing one of them glasses and nose costumes 😂
You missed the covid-19 dip in 2020, here is your second chance.
He ordered a complete redesign of the room to match his shirt.
Hahahaha...
Have Mike on more often
Monetary risk is off the charts; none of the talking heads in the financial media understand 'money' - which is super ironic.
Great news. Greedy real estate developers, irresponsible and unscrupulous banking lending institutions and self confidence housing buyer who want to make a quick buck .
when will we actually know they defaulted?
They have 3 or 4 major payments due very soon. The first is this week, two are next week iirc and the last is like a week or two after that. So potentially this week, but more likely in a couple weeks.
@@sovietmudkip1 so the market can keep going down south for another month or so?
@@zauzydumpling9942 hard to tell until HK markets open on Wednesday, but potentially tes
within three weeks.
That's the worst Magnum PI costume I have ever seen, LOL!!!
That kid is my hero! Early achiever!
Check back Thursday when there actual market opens in Hong Kong, not Wednesday or today
the real question is where you can buy a moustache like that
That is not the question yo’!
The question is how did that kid with a mustache got there? 😱
Good... This is good... Hopefully this is the beginning of the end
whoever extended credit to evergrande deserves too lose money..its called GREED lol.....some foreign company will finish the projects.
CCP still owns the land. The companies lease to build on them, but none of them are allowed to actually own the land.
20% drop has been signaled. Deff wouldn't try and buy this dip. You will get clapped.
Man, that mustache, I just couldn't pay attention after that.
This was awesome
you won't remember the name of this company in 2 months. Remember Archegos Capital from March/April? CNBC said the same thing about the Archegos meltdown. By June it was never on CNBC, never mentioned ever again.
That’s CNBC for ya all BS propaganda. Look over here nothing going on life is all roses. They are with Biden should I say anymore
I thought this was an SNL skit... looked like a person wearing "fake nose/mustache glasses" and a Hawaiian shirt wtf?
This dude looked like he’s wearing a mustache and glasses mask.
I thought the same thing.
If some day I get to talk on CNBC. I will definitely get a fake moustache
It is no longer a question of ‘if’ we are now at the ‘when’
Great info thanks keep up the good work...
Not to take away from this guy's knowledge and expertise, but this guy seriously woke up one day and said 'I want to look like Harvey from StarDew Valley' 😄
For a second, i thought he had a filter on or the mustache and glasses toy on
I first thought it's like a moustache filter or something.
I totally thought this guy had one of those mustache, nose, glasses combos in the thumbnail.
Me too! LOL!
This is going to drag nations down with it.
There is one political party in China, but two major power bases. One is Xi, the all powerful president. The other is Jiang, he is deeply involved with Ever Grande. Xi will do all in his power, and that is a lot, to prevent the Chinese Government from bailing Ever Grande out in order to cause Jiang to lose face. I predict the Government will NOT pull Ever Grande out of the fire. This will cause markets World Wide to suffer, but they will come back. China has begun the fall. I hope it is swift.
Was that the character Brad Pitt portrayed on the movie "The Big Short" ?
He looks just like Matt Damon in the "Informant" lol
I literally thought he had on the Grouch Marx glasses,nose,and mustache we wear for Halloween! Wow he really looks like a movie from 1910
I remembered Evergrand.... Played a level 7 gnome warlock.
CNBC has to ask to these kids who have never experienced a crash in their life ?? This is incredible
They changed the thumbnail 😂😂😂
Lol I was scrolling through and thought he was using a puppy filter
Nevergrand
Took Lehman 1.5 years from 2007 bankruptcy to 2009 S&P low
The bigger they are the harder they fall.
Where can I get those funny glasses and nose disguise? Please post the Amazon link to it.
Evergrandes problems and likely default has been known for months. I have a hard time believing this is moving the market. There must be something else or we will have a quick rebound
from far away, i thought he naturally had the puppy dog filter because his mustache
What I wanna know is. Is this guy gonna change his look after going thru a few pages of the comments on his big news interview?
It'll be a sight to behold
omg that moustache!!!!!!!!
Hes wearing those comedy glasses with mustache attached
What a glorious moustache
How can anyone take him seriously with that look
This guy was really informative.
He makes 1970s look hype in 2021.
I thought the guy was on a filter! Lol
Super nice shirt.
Guest speaker has a good grasp on the situation
The rich stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then the poor stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich
You see many people remain poor because of ignorance
Not because of ignorance, but because of too many scammers in the business
@@justinpamela9305 You're right ma, Thanks for introducing me to Mr Williams
My first investment with Mr Williams gave me profit of over $24,000 Us dollars and ever since then he has never failed to deliver and I can even say he's the most sincere broker I have known
Yes I'm a living testimony of Mr Williams
Let's ask Ron Burgundy.
At the end it will Chinese people will pay the price for again this cover up !!
Dude !! That 'Stash' is EPIC !! I origanlly thought he was a chick with a mustache until he started talking. Now, I even MORE intrigued ! that mustache and that hairdoo don't match ! there's another story here that has nothing to do with the Evergrande. What's this guy's story !?
I seriously thought this was going to be a parody video
This fast talking brunette of CNBC must not be an air head. She was not reading some one typed flash cards. Good job.
Comment Section:
1% Economy
99% Mustache talk