How on earth do you all stay sane with the government so flagrantly ignoring your very sensible and reasonable advice? I am raging on your behalf (which doesn't help I know..) Massive thanks to you all for this consistently informative forum, your openness and honesty is so much appreciated.
Again -thank you to the voices of intelligence, reason and knowledge-Independent Sage. Shame the Government doesn’t pay heed, but lots of us are listening and we’re grateful 🙏
Sooo much is open this time compared to March 🤦♀️ I work in hospitality and we're open as takeaway now and we were closed in March. Loads of local shops that were closed in March are open now because they get out of the technicality of selling "food" even though its just crisps and chocolate.......its really annoying, and I don't feel safe going to work atm 😔
It may be that garden centres sell products that enable some of us to grow our own food and make what IS in our supermarkets following Brexit chaos available to those without gardens? You can buy seeds and some plants online I guess but quality of plants particularly can be very disappointing resulting in crop failures.
I’d like to see local vax centres allowing for “leftover dose” registration, leave a mobile number along with age ethnicity or whatever and the centres work their way through their registration lists.
Not sure if the S African variant was discussed- seems there is some genuine concern that the current vaccines are or will be effective - if not we can look forward to months of ongoing vaccinations with duplicated vaccinations of same people- I understand the current vaccines can be ‘tweaked’ in 6 weeks, but these time frames are never adhered to. And would the same groups remain the priority groups in case of more vaccinations needed?
1:09:07- yes, Sir David!! Absolutely. The reduction of state health systems due to some sociopathic disorder in the Conservative government mind - not new... they’ve wanted to dismantle these state support systems ever since their introduction in 1947. Mind you, there is a syndrome of personal abdication for ones health that has also contributed to the failure of our health-care services, ref Limits to Medicine- Ivan Illich
@6:15 I would like to see a comparison of that case graph against 'traditional flu' cases over previsou years. I would wager the stats would be near identical.
Traditional flu is a different illness. I think you will find it is less infectious, and less serious. We have also had vaccines for some time. That is why the response is different. going forward I suggest that wearing masks and keeping distance from non-families in the winter might be a good idea
Is there any concern at indie_SAGE about the 12 week gap on vaccines being administered? I have heard some views from epidemiologists that this could cause vaccines escape mutations in the virus. With a highly prevalent and transmissible mutation being challenged only by partial immunity - is this not similar to what would be done in a laboratory to study vaccine escape mutations? I'm genuinely concerned that the Gov approach may make the situation worse in the longer term although I am aware of the crisis we are in and that partial immunity in as many people as possible makes sense from that standpoint. Would like to know thoughts on this from you all.
Also the possibility of a person catching 2 variants - resulting in genetic recombination- ie viral transfer of genetic material between variants- meaning much faster mutation rates...
Are we sure that the increase in cases is not correlated with this years flu vaccine? There was a study in children that suggested it increased susceptibility to non flu infections. Are thos in hospital disproportionately the people who had the flu shot?
Why are we still allowing public gatherings in churches? Has the government recognised that situation is now so desperate that we need to appeal to an imaginary friend?
I don't understand why churches are open for public worship, in highest tier and alert levels; (could possibly support private worship with limited numbers in a building) - and apparently includes buildings that are not owned by the church, if they are open. And I'm the clerk of a Quaker meeting, we've not met in person since March. Funerals should be the one exception, whether religious or secular. Places of worship were not open in the first lockdown.
@Joolie Loolie I can only assume you are some sort of troll since we all know asymptomatic infection is extremely common. Staying away from people who have attended large public gatherings is an extremely good idea. Since you are making counterfactual statements about COVID I will now ignore any further comments you make. I note that followers of the superstitions specialise in counterfactual statements .... I think they call it faith. As Mark Twain said, faith is believing something you know ain’t true.
Thank you everyone in Independent Sage for providing sanity amidst the chaos, clear information amidst the spin & above all a light in the darkness of this pandemic.
I heard a caller on the Andrew Pierce show this evening on LBC say he has no choice but to go in to work otherwise he won't get paid and he risks losing his job.
And what about all the other medical emergencies resulting in deaths of patients that aren’t able to be adequately cared for in hospitals- low staff:patient ratios etc? Need to add them to the deaths due to CoVid.
Growth is roughly R^(at), t being time, a some positive constant. Since R = e^log(R) that growth can be rewritten e^(a log(R) t). Hence exponential growth when log(R) > 0, ie when R > 1. This is why the emphasis is on getting R below 1 which would leave the growth exponentially decaying, versus its current behaviour which is already exponential growth. Of course in a sense you are right that as R increases from its current value towards 2.7 the growth will be faster, but either way it is exponentially growing as long as R is g.t 1
@@alexseaton4088 yes you are correct, my feeling is that they are being very conservative with their estimate for the R value(underestimate), getting R down will mean huge sacrifices, I guess my comment was directed to the fact that so far we have been able to contain the virus to some extent, we have seen the exponential decay over summer, but with this new strain the lock-downs will be unable to halt that exponential(breakout) curve we are seeing at the moment. Great work by inde_sage, my hope is we can get thru this with the minimum suffering and the help and support needed is provided.
Looking at all the damage done be lockdown surely we should simply take this on the chin and get to herd immunity OR go for a total elimination approach as in China. Currently we are letting this fester over a long period of time which must ultimately create a vaccine resistant strain. Yes people will die but sadly that’s reality. No one seems to have an overview of the total impact on society. Indie Sageis excellent but the virus is only a small part of the picture.
We simply don’t have the kind of society for a China approach. I call it a lack of collective responsibility, but I think we all know the uk public couldn’t do a real China lockdown. Don’t forget, China brought in the army to enforce the rules.
@@JohnnyMotel99 You make a good point But what do you suggest? I don’t think a halfway approach will ever work. Once we are vaccinated the selection pressure for a vaccine resistant strain ( which may already be out there) will be enormous.
@@DK-oy6ee My personal opinion is that UK Gov is wishing and praying the combination of vaccine and spring/summer onset, will bring the infection rate down to a point where it can say "we won". Then their collective hope is that the media will move onto fresher pastures. My own gut feeling says this virus will have the last word! I think most experts in this field acknowledge SarsCov2 is endemic in our societies and we will get winter epidemics. Huge subject to think about and discuss.
@@JohnnyMotel99 Yes I agree that we will get winter epidemics. I’m not sure , however, that the government has any plan at all beyond the next few months. What do you think of Great Barrington as a way out of this?
@@DK-oy6ee I know about the GB approach, but it carries some huge unknowns. If it was even possible to keep all the over 65’s isolated 100%, with food deliveries, social care, GP care etc etc (very, very doubtful UK could organise that comprehensively!) then let the virus run its course in the rest of the population what about virus mutations? Virus love a large infection pool to create new variations. Unfortunately a virus like SarsCov2 is not a simple binary issue and I’m surprised so many respected experts didn’t account for this.
How on earth do you all stay sane with the government so flagrantly ignoring your very sensible and reasonable advice? I am raging on your behalf (which doesn't help I know..) Massive thanks to you all for this consistently informative forum, your openness and honesty is so much appreciated.
Again -thank you to the voices of intelligence, reason and knowledge-Independent Sage. Shame the Government doesn’t pay heed, but lots of us are listening and we’re grateful 🙏
Thanks so much. Clear information is so very important. Much appreciated.
Sooo much is open this time compared to March 🤦♀️ I work in hospitality and we're open as takeaway now and we were closed in March. Loads of local shops that were closed in March are open now because they get out of the technicality of selling "food" even though its just crisps and chocolate.......its really annoying, and I don't feel safe going to work atm 😔
I agree...and why are garden centres open?
It may be that garden centres sell products that enable some of us to grow our own food and make what IS in our supermarkets following Brexit chaos available to those without gardens? You can buy seeds and some plants online I guess but quality of plants particularly can be very disappointing resulting in crop failures.
Brexit means there is now 350m available to the NHS per week... spend it and hand Boris the bill.
Also loads of people are out in general this time. Here in Bristol it doesn't even look like a lockdown. No where near what it was in March.....
Agree - I'm in Bristol too, I'm in the centre....too much is open 😣
Thanks for the excellent information .could you discuss how the 12 week delay between the vaccinations is being researched .
Thank you all for this video, you're doing amazing work
You deserve more subscribers! 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
I’d like to see local vax centres allowing for “leftover dose” registration, leave a mobile number along with age ethnicity or whatever and the centres work their way through their registration lists.
Thanks everyone much appreciated 👍
Couple of key points in todays breifing... "Doo Doos" and "We need to be Proactive but we are being Reactive"
Thank you all at Indie_Sage
Not sure if the S African variant was discussed- seems there is some genuine concern that the current vaccines are or will be effective - if not we can look forward to months of ongoing vaccinations with duplicated vaccinations of same people- I understand the current vaccines can be ‘tweaked’ in 6 weeks, but these time frames are never adhered to. And would the same groups remain the priority groups in case of more vaccinations needed?
1:09:07- yes, Sir David!! Absolutely. The reduction of state health systems due to some sociopathic disorder in the Conservative government mind - not new... they’ve wanted to dismantle these state support systems ever since their introduction in 1947.
Mind you, there is a syndrome of personal abdication for ones health that has also contributed to the failure of our health-care services, ref Limits to Medicine- Ivan Illich
@6:15 I would like to see a comparison of that case graph against 'traditional flu' cases over previsou years. I would wager the stats would be near identical.
Traditional flu is a different illness. I think you will find it is less infectious, and less serious. We have also had vaccines for some time. That is why the response is different. going forward I suggest that wearing masks and keeping distance from non-families in the winter might be a good idea
Is there any concern at indie_SAGE about the 12 week gap on vaccines being administered? I have heard some views from epidemiologists that this could cause vaccines escape mutations in the virus. With a highly prevalent and transmissible mutation being challenged only by partial immunity - is this not similar to what would be done in a laboratory to study vaccine escape mutations?
I'm genuinely concerned that the Gov approach may make the situation worse in the longer term although I am aware of the crisis we are in and that partial immunity in as many people as possible makes sense from that standpoint. Would like to know thoughts on this from you all.
Also the possibility of a person catching 2 variants - resulting in genetic recombination- ie viral transfer of genetic material between variants- meaning much faster mutation rates...
Are we sure that the increase in cases is not correlated with this years flu vaccine? There was a study in children that suggested it increased susceptibility to non flu infections. Are thos in hospital disproportionately the people who had the flu shot?
@Joolie Loolie Well it would be nice to see some data that proves it is not the. Case
Steve Reicher at 1:04:00- dead right!!
Why are we still allowing public gatherings in churches? Has the government recognised that situation is now so desperate that we need to appeal to an imaginary friend?
We'll look back at that with incredulity
I don't understand why churches are open for public worship, in highest tier and alert levels; (could possibly support private worship with limited numbers in a building) - and apparently includes buildings that are not owned by the church, if they are open. And I'm the clerk of a Quaker meeting, we've not met in person since March. Funerals should be the one exception, whether religious or secular. Places of worship were not open in the first lockdown.
Online worship for those that derive comfort from religions. It might help mental health...
@Joolie Loolie But they then infect others. You are displaying an incredibly selfish attitude. Are you a Christian?
@Joolie Loolie I can only assume you are some sort of troll since we all know asymptomatic infection is extremely common. Staying away from people who have attended large public gatherings is an extremely good idea. Since you are making counterfactual statements about COVID I will now ignore any further comments you make. I note that followers of the superstitions specialise in counterfactual statements .... I think they call it faith. As Mark Twain said, faith is believing something you know ain’t true.
Thank you everyone in Independent Sage for providing sanity amidst the chaos, clear information amidst the spin & above all a light in the darkness of this pandemic.
I heard a caller on the Andrew Pierce show this evening on LBC say he has no choice but to go in to work otherwise he won't get paid and he risks losing his job.
Why is Britain so bad at dealing with a pandemic? Why can't Britain learn from countries like Thailand, Vietnam etc..?
You could say the same for almost all Western countries. But I think our societies lack a deep sense of collective responsibility.
@Joolie Loolie Why is it always left or right? What about finding a middle path that honours humanity with dignity?
And what about all the other medical emergencies resulting in deaths of patients that aren’t able to be adequately cared for in hospitals- low staff:patient ratios etc? Need to add them to the deaths due to CoVid.
Most people wont understand the term exponential increase, if R breaks out and makes it above 2 then there will be an abject lesson.
Above 1 is the threshold for exponential increase, not 2
@@alexseaton4088 you may well be correct, i am referring to e approx equal to 2.7 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_(mathematical_constant)
You are probably right. They still don't understand what 2 metres is, either.
Growth is roughly R^(at), t being time, a some positive constant. Since R = e^log(R) that growth can be rewritten e^(a log(R) t). Hence exponential growth when log(R) > 0, ie when R > 1. This is why the emphasis is on getting R below 1 which would leave the growth exponentially decaying, versus its current behaviour which is already exponential growth. Of course in a sense you are right that as R increases from its current value towards 2.7 the growth will be faster, but either way it is exponentially growing as long as R is g.t 1
@@alexseaton4088 yes you are correct, my feeling is that they are being very conservative with their estimate for the R value(underestimate), getting R down will mean huge sacrifices, I guess my comment was directed to the fact that so far we have been able to contain the virus to some extent, we have seen the exponential decay over summer, but with this new strain the lock-downs will be unable to halt that exponential(breakout) curve we are seeing at the moment. Great work by inde_sage, my hope is we can get thru this with the minimum suffering and the help and support needed is provided.
@4:41 - what we are seeing is a seasonal surge during winter months. no surprise
Did you not see Prof Pagels graphs on that very issue??!!
Why haven't you mandated Vitamin D?
@Joolie Loolie the vast majority of people have not heard of Vitamin D or do not understand the role of it.
Looking at all the damage done be lockdown surely we should simply take this on the chin and get to herd immunity OR go for a total elimination approach as in China. Currently we are letting this fester over a long period of time which must ultimately create a vaccine resistant strain. Yes people will die but sadly that’s reality. No one seems to have an overview of the total impact on society. Indie Sageis excellent but the virus is only a small part of the picture.
We simply don’t have the kind of society for a China approach. I call it a lack of collective responsibility, but I think we all know the uk public couldn’t do a real China lockdown. Don’t forget, China brought in the army to enforce the rules.
@@JohnnyMotel99 You make a good point But what do you suggest? I don’t think a halfway approach will ever work. Once we are vaccinated the selection pressure for a vaccine resistant strain ( which may already be out there) will be enormous.
@@DK-oy6ee My personal opinion is that UK Gov is wishing and praying the combination of vaccine and spring/summer onset, will bring the infection rate down to a point where it can say "we won". Then their collective hope is that the media will move onto fresher pastures.
My own gut feeling says this virus will have the last word! I think most experts in this field acknowledge SarsCov2 is endemic in our societies and we will get winter epidemics.
Huge subject to think about and discuss.
@@JohnnyMotel99 Yes I agree that we will get winter epidemics. I’m not sure , however, that the government has any plan at all beyond the next few months. What do you think of Great Barrington as a way out of this?
@@DK-oy6ee I know about the GB approach, but it carries some huge unknowns.
If it was even possible to keep all the over 65’s isolated 100%, with food deliveries, social care, GP care etc etc (very, very doubtful UK could organise that comprehensively!) then let the virus run its course in the rest of the population what about virus mutations?
Virus love a large infection pool to create new variations.
Unfortunately a virus like SarsCov2 is not a simple binary issue and I’m surprised so many respected experts didn’t account for this.
Btw.... Sir David.... It wasn't Opening Pubs that did it! That should be retracted.