Why China is Shrinking VERY Fast
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ค. 2023
- For 50% off with HelloFresh PLUS free shipping, use code REALLIFELORE50 at bit.ly/46lNrFG
Watch more than 24 additional exclusive RealLifeLore videos on Nebula in Modern Conflicts: nebula.tv/modernconflicts
Please Subscribe: / @reallifelore
RealLifeLore on Spotify: spoti.fi/47yMfzp
RealLifeLore on Facebook: / reallifelore
Select video clips courtesy of Getty Images
Select video clips courtesy of the AP Archive
Special thanks to MapTiler, OpenStreetMap Contributors, and GEOlayers
www.maptiler.com/copyright/
www.openstreetmap.org/copyright
aescripts.com/geolayers/
Two points that make resolving China's demographic problems more difficult.
-China isn't just having trouble attracting immigrants, its actively losing hundreds of thousands of people a year to emmigration.
-The decline of birth rates isn't just because of the one child policy. Other east Asian countries have experienced similar birth rate problems. The one child policy just exacerbated other trends, making it all the more potent and also meaning that fixing it is going to be a lot more difficult than reversing the policy.
Chinese people don't emigrate anymore. They have much better oportunities in their country than at any other country.
A crushing work culture that is definetly going to result in burnout doesn't help. Japan and South Korea has the same problem
@jal051 they still do.
@@JK-gu3tl Look at the numbers. They are one of the countries in the world with less migration. The chinese people outside of China migrated 20 years ago.
@jal051 why so many purchasing houses in places like Canada?
I think there was a missed opportunity to talk about how work culture has become just as crippling to the childbirth rate, but there are so many factors that're damning China for the next century.
slowed population growth is bad, but the fact that their richest/most educated people are leaving the country as fast as possible, and nobody is immigrating, is a far bigger problem. They're also particularly vulnerable to climate change, and a lot of their growth up to this point has been illusory. Buildings projects that nobody needs add to GDP but it's just a bubble with no substance.
That's actually something that's very similar to Japan!
@@TheStrangeBloke The people going out of china is negligeble and even then most of them are going back to china and not staying permanently in other countrues. Look at the statista graphs you will see it
China has trouble creating and attracting talent not retaining it.
@@sociolocomtsacthese are mostly ccp elites that leaves the country to buy foreign properties agein, they go back to china after some time
I find it fascinating how many people are more concerned with GDP and publicly traded share prices, than with native populations being replaced in the next 100 years. China will still be Chinese 100 years from now. Japan will still be Japanese 100 years from now. In the centuries or millennia view of things, China and the Chinese people and Japan and the Japanese people will be just fine.
What will happen to the European French, Germans, Italians, and British in the next 100 years due to mass immigration? They will turn into minorities in their own ethnic homelands. They will lose their culture, shared history, and political power. But "muh GDP" is more important to the people in power than becoming minorities in their own homelands after thousands of years of living in their respective lands.
What about Whites in North America or Australia/New Zealand in the next 100 years? Same as above. Europeans will soon become minorities in those countries. This is the case in virtually every country inhabited by ethnic Europeans.
This is truly what the ideological battle between nationalism and internationalism is all about.
0:30 Calling the massive death in the 1960's a "famine" obfuscates the fact that it was entirely avoidable and largely had to do with Mao's policy of "industrialization" in the Great Leap Forward.
"more people than... and Australia combined" always makes me laugh because Aus is pretty much a big country by landmass alone, it has good drama factor on a world map for anyone who doesn't live here XD
Not that much by population. Extremely scarce for such a big country.
@@Richdragon4 thats the point, saying "and australia" is only significant because of its size on the world map and not anything else about the country, which means only uneducated people will be shocked
in fact Australia has as much polulation than Taiwan lol it is true, so the comment of Autralia combined surprised me also
By 2050 the majority of Australians will be of Asian descent
I'm sure the 👽 have been fooled.
Slightly unrelated but the official Brazilian census just reported 203 million people which is far below the official numbers of around 216 million you will see if you google it. Population growth was very slow as well. A true China census might indicate their population is actually a good bit lower than what is believed. Birth rates look VERY bad.
Even officially recorded Brazilian births have collapsed in the last 10 years. Brazil has been well below replacement level for around 20 years now
Literally every single statistic coming out of China is suspect, so this should be no different. I mean just look at the birth rates.
Good.
There was a leak of the national police registry, and it was in the 800 millions.
@@TuathaTuna Not particularly as it is dysgenic fertility.
Population Decreasing:
China: "OH NO!"
Japan: "First Time?"
lol
Eastern European countries: Allow us to introduce ourselves
Japan uses foreign labor for its industries, biggest Japanese owned factories are not even in Japan.
DONT BE MEAN TO CHINA
@@NigerianCrusader why not
0:50 I used to go to school through this place everyday, it's the anand vihar bus terminal and the building you see behind is the pacific mall and that stairway bridge connects to the anand vihar metro station blue line
Great information and superb graphics. Thanks for sharing it. ❤🎉
The graphics are great, especially the population curves moving through time. Presenting abstract data in such a visually vivid form is really helpful to understanding it.
U like graphics, don'tchya? U usually crank up those Crysis 3 graphixs to *MAXIMUM* with no amd fsr enables, ye?
THAT IS TRUE. BUT ITS CONCLUSION MAY NOT BE NECESSARILY TRUE. BECAUSE HUMANS R CAPABLE OF INTRODUCING UNFORESEEN CLEVER SOLUTION. SPECAILLY THE WISE CHINESE.
China is East Asia itself
@@user-gi7vi9gm4t overclocked to 40 if you're brave enough!
China has been lying about their population for decades which makes his timeline far less compelling.
I lived in China, speak Mandarin, and worked with local Chinese businesses. Yet, because I am not Han and I am not another local 少数民族 (minority ethnic group), I was never allowed to assimilate. Even my friends who are completely fluent and married to local Chinese people aren't ever allowed to assimilate. Being consistently othered is tiring. It drains you, saps you of energy.
Large scale long lasting immigration into an ethno-centric country like China is unlikely to happen, and there certainly won't be enough migrants for China to deal with its coming demographic crisis.
Most leave. My brother in law is Chinese, they immigrated to Canada when he was 10. His family did amazing in Canada. He has to go back once a year to do banking. And he hates it. They always go to Japan for a week while waiting for the banking to be done. Canada is getting many even million of imitation form China every few years. We just jumped to 40 million this year. His family was also allowed to have more children in Canada. Which was one of the reasons they immigrated. His grandmother survived The great leap forward. It seems the gov when it comes to population, is always backwards and reductive. And as we can see from the tens of millions of missing female Chinese women. The outcome was predicted. But ignored.
Indeed. As a Chinese person I would say that China might be among the countries that are most unwelcoming to immigrants. Ethno-centric countries have cohesion as a great strength, but the demographic crisis will become almost inevitable when the birth rate drops.
The policy will change. White immigrants are the most desirable and Japanese/Korean not far behind.
I feel like lots of countries in East Asia are. They are just as developed (if not more) than European and North American countries yet unlike the west they want to maintain a homogenous society. I get that, Asian culture is beautiful and should be preserved, but countries like Korea, China, and Japan have to start letting immigration into their countries the same way America, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Europe did. It would benefit their economies and solve their population problems.
@@iciajay6891 i get it.But most Chinese people right now are living safe and decent lives. ( i have lived in shanghai and visited many villages from 2013-2021). But it's not worth coming to Canada or any white majority nation because of the extreme racism and Anti- Chinese sentiments in those countries. If they go to Canada, they would be attacked, punched, kicked, constantly bullied, discriminated or even murdered by white people. The last thing a Chinese person wants it to live as a 2nd class citizen in Canada that is being treated differently just because he is non-white. So, i think its best if they just stay in china and have more babies to help the country overcome this crisis.
Videos like this are always fascinating, and here you make it relatively simple to follow along and is well written, researched and edited. Kudos!
he doesn't understand china
@@user-mb8el5mb3she understands his audience well
@@user-mb8el5mb3syeah like you
Bruh moment...
Either the script writer is uneducated in history of counties like China, Russia, not even mentioning Middle-Eastern countries...
Or consistently and deliberately pushing pro-American propaganda on unprepared viewers!
So much made-up facts and HUGE "IFs" about these countries, but no mentions of similar or worse problems in the US (which perspective is somehow ALWAYS right).
Its obvious that the US will never keep up with Chinas population because:
1) Ratio of national structures. 90% of China are Chinese people, but for the US its: germans, mexicans, african americans, italian, irish, ASIAN including chinese and 5-10% are white americans.
2) USA population growth is mainly due to migration from other countries. I'd love to see the world where chinese americans will go to war against their own nation of china xDD
3) NATO alliance doesn't mean that some Albanian dudes will go to war with China if USA tells them to. So why does author counts them as ONE NATION? But all of the Chinese will support their country when the NATO attacks.
You don't need to be very smart and educated to just analyze what the author says and to understand that something is definitely OFF about this channel.
@@user-mb8el5mb3s so provide evidence. don't make a statement with no evidence because the burden of proof falls on you.
killer gfx, well used. keep on truckin
One small addendum: Even though the policy is now widely known as the "one child policy", that's technically not correct, as it was a "one birth policy". Of course, most often these two amount to the same thing, but the important difference being that if you gave birth to more than one child at a time, ie twins, you didn't have to give any up, and got to keep all of them.
So in essence, you were allowed more than one kid, granted they were all part of the same birth.
ok getting a deathly coin flip when you have twins is too fucked up even for china ig
@@SyuvinyaI think north korea would do that if it was willing to
It also counted each parent individually. So if one parent has a child then loses their partner, they cannot have a child with any new partners. So that means that is 1 child between 2 couples.
Considering how many women were made to abort their wanted pregnancies by state backed clinics I don't think you've read enough about the horrendous reality of this policy....you not only lost the government support but also risk penalties for breaking the policy and having more than one child, so ppl just went into hiding in the countryside until the second and third child were born and left there to be raised by relatives while the parents went back into the cities for work.
There are a bunch of documentaries about this topic I highly recommend you watch for the testimonials
@@IammankeyKimmy gives a suspicious side eye glance
China's also got a different problem weighing on demographics that the government doesn't want to fix: the 9-9-6 schedule 9am to 9pm 6 days a week. That keeps wages low, but it also keeps youth unemployment high (+20%) and makes family life very difficult
Asian work ethic is something else
@@herospeedy3174 work ethic is a lot easier to find when you don't have a choice
Lmao, 996 is definitely not common practice in China and is practically illegal. There really is a lack of accurate information on the country in the western world. Same goes for the myth of the social credit system.
@@herospeedy3174I wouldn't exactly put 'not wanting to starve or lose the roof over your head' as a work ethic. It falls under desperation.
THE CHINESE CULTURE OF BEING HARD WORKING IS AN ASSET TO THE NATION. THAT DOES NOT DEPRIVE JOBS FROM THE YOUNG. THE GOVERNMENT CAN FIGURE OUT HOW TO PROVIDE EMPLOYMENT FOR THEIR WELL EDUCATED YOUTH. THAT IS NOT AN INSOLUBLE PROBLEM. THE CHINESE R SO INNOVATIVE N RESOURCEFUL.
Great video. Thank you!
Insightful and well presented.
I love how you threw Australia in for population comparison. We have about 6 people here. 😂
Beijing & Shanghai alone have more people than Australia 🦘
Six people and thirteen spiders.
That’s more like Mongolia, north of China
@@uss-dh7909 27 emus
@@Kromiball fuck we lost the war to them. Probably billions by now.
I’m not so convinced that indias population will rise to such lofty heights. In much of India there is already a significant slowing of birth rates. There is still rapid growth in populations around the major cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta, Bangalore and other cities, however a lot of this is being driven by migration from regional and rural areas.
It's kolkata not calcutta mate
We are talking about total population of India , not few important cities
Yeah, the less developed states are more populated and also have >2.1 birth rate ratio. The rest of India is actually less than ideal, so it is a worrying trend. But, I do hope we learn from others and don't repeat their mistakes.
@@_UNISTAR_ mistakes will be repeated it's just that it's form will be changed
There's also the issue of whether India is capable of sustaining and managing such a large population, or if it will be its own downfall. After all, India's civil infrastructure is not very well-developed, and with a country where so many poor people live in very unhealthy conditions and lack sufficient resources to cater to all these people, a new epidemic could be devastating for the country.
The presented view and limited time window of China conquering Taiwan was bold and wild quess but had also some supporting arguments. The presentation on population development was as such well prepared. Thnx for sharing. You are doing very good work on your blogs. Found many of them very educating👌
What a condescending post. YT seems to attract this type.
Great job! Thank you!
The guy who first suggested the One Child Policy:
"I shouldn't have said that. I should NOT have said that."
During one of their first meeting, Mao Zsedung actually offered Henry Kissinger if America can take 60 million women off China's hand. He wasn't joking.
It recently came out that China was likely over counting their population to the tune of 100 million people. So they probably became the second largest country some time in 2018 and possibly all the numbers you mention in this video should be adjusted by 5 years or more.
I hear it's a good deal worse than that. But sadly, it will take a major change at the top before we finally get real population numbers. And who knows when that will happen?
At least once, with Deng, it happened without any great bloodshed. So there's a little hope for something other than some grim disaster to finally get at the truth.
@LD-Orbs I'm by no means very knowledgeable on China but everything I learned about the central government's relationship with the provincial governments is that there is always tremendous pressure to meet expectations. This has led to fluffing all metrics to exaggerate or hide information. It wouldn't surprise me there is pressure to overinflate population numbers.
There’s even a conspiracy theory that China is lying about their population by the tune of hundreds of millions. Some people started analyzing their consumption of certain goods and their exports/imports, and determined it should actually be 700-900 million. If true, that’s just insane.
The only source I could find on this was "Brownstone Research" which does not have the best track record.
Chinese local government get funding from the central government, in part, relative to their population stats, so there is huge incentives to fudge the numbers. The best guesses are that this has indeed been going on and to absolutely ridculous levels. Personally, I wouldn't be shocked if China's actual population number was 100-250 million lower than their stats suggest.
That last segment just sounds like my brain when I play Paradox grand strategy games.
Hoi4
Thanks!
I feel like the effect of the famine in 1959-61 is an underrated influence on people’s willingness to go along with the one child policy. If you/your parents just survived a massive famine, and then you get told it will happen again unless you quit having kids, that must have been a huge motivation.
So what this really is, is a lesson in how playing on very real fears widespread across a population can lead to panicked decisions that have serious consequences down the road. Of course this never happens anywhere else either /s
There were a lot of people who ignored it still, especially in rural areas where it was harder to enforce (and also where the death tolls of the famine were highest). China Wakes, an investigative journalism book from the 90s has a pretty long chapter of it. Oftentimes (but not always), officials who were sent to enforce the policy could be paid off or would decide on the spot to charge a fee. The flip side of that are the forced abortions carried out by the state.
Without birth control, an agricultural country must suffer famine cyclically. Population growth is exponential but land and resources are constants. It was not only 1959-1961 that told this story, there were dozens of such stories, told in ancient Chinese history.
@@yipengguo2732 youre right, in a pre-industrial world, but the mass introduction of fertilisers and pesticides have changed it, from that period onward, yields have grown exponentially.
I'll say one counterpoint: some historians argue that the explosion in population in the early Qing dynasty was due to peasants trying to repopulate after the famines of the Little Ice age and the war of transition between the Ming and Qing dynasties. So, perhaps the trauma mass death by famine and war isn't always expressed in not having kids, but it's often the opposite: people respond to death by having kids. Some historians also posit that populations that are subject to disasters like typhoons and monsoons (ex: SE Asia and India) tend to have more children per household to repopulate quickly after these events.
However, as you said, the government rhetoric was that the famine would happen again if people don'tstop having kids, so that might've changed ppls perception and desire to have kids this time
'lead to panicked decisions' Combined with population control beign an inherently laden subject to begin with, the human factor makes mistakes, oversights and impulsivity and power plays even more common.
As a product of the one child policy, I hate being an only son due to the ungodly amount of intergenerational trauma that is dumped on me. That policy was the absolute worst thing ever. It leads to so much emotional abuse that is normalized by our culture.
EDIT: The not-all-parents apologists replying to me who didn't bother reading previous replies should note that I already said "I don't speak for everyone."
Give us an example of the trauma so we know what you mean
The one child policy despite technically working to reduce birth rates caused a humongous human cost I had the opposite experience from you where because I was born differently I was given away and while I love my current family I may never know my roots and culture
Chinese people have access to TH-cam!
@@sushmitriyanbasuli6889 ever heard of vpn
@@amylee9 I won’t speak for everyone. The short generic version is that our parents’ love for us is often conditional. We’re constantly threatened with abandonment if we don’t perform well academically, financially, and (eventually) socially. Shaming and hazing are common, as are constant comparisons to other people due to a rigid culture of saving face. Emotional manipulation and love-bombing aren’t uncommon either. We’re basically suppressed from showing weakness, emotion, or imperfections. Even if we finish school and secure a decent job, our parents demand grandchildren ASAP. To hell with you having a happy marriage, because theirs wasn’t happy, so why do you need such high standards in your relationship? After all, only through you will our family tree continue.
Doesn’t make for raising well-rounded, mentally stable young adults that would be interested in having children.
The issue of immigration into China stems from difficulties obtaining long-term residency permits and ultimately the lack of a streamlined process for naturalization/obtaining citizenship. In order for a foreigner to obtain citizenship, they must have immediate family that holds Chinese nationality, possess permanent residency, and have legitimate reasons for naturalizing, which is rather vague and all of which is under the discretion of the immigration department to accept of reject.
I think you're wrong. Beuracracy is a minor component of the issue. The key issues are that people do not want to immigrate into China for many reasons, some cultural and those that do find that Chinese people do not allow them to assimilate, so they are living a lonely and unsatisfactory existence.
@@Dionysos640 I'm talking strictly about people who already have the intention of immigrating. But sure, the number of people who want to go through the naturalization process are few. But I disagree that Chinese people wouldn't be open to foreigners assimilating, especially one that would be forgoing their old citizenship to naturalize as a "Chinese".
How do u make these simple statements into 30 minute videos???? lol, good work!
12:05 this is the most insane thing I heard. Girl children were passed for adoptation so that the couple could try for male child. I think the Chinese government didn't consider this possiblity at first, but when they noticed the damage was done.
It’s very rare, all the girls I know from China are single child with post-college educations. And many urban families prefer girls. Also woman don’t change their last name after marriage, plus now it’s trend than girl would take mom’s last name after born. It’s not as traditional as how we projecting it by our understanding of our own culture…
That's the best scenario, a lot of times they were left to die. In China it's illegal to know the sex of the baby before it's born so if you want a boy then you cannot make an early abortion you need to actually wait until the child is born and well... get rid of it somehow if it's a girl. They did change it later so if your first child was a girl you could get another child but this didn't apply everywhere.
Were the adopted children murdered or taken out of the country? What happened to them? Otherwise, they're just being shuffled around.
That's the history of China in a nutshell. Broad sweeping laws because the government didn't consider the possibilities. Examples are the great leap forward and the great revolution.
@@jaymarx The people you know obviously can not depict the whole picture here. There are currently 30 million more men than women in China according to the official census. Where are the girls gone? Abortion unfortunately.
I always find it odd that countries(and funnily enough companies) kind of need the population to continue to expand to fuel this constant growth of industry and production and yet they pursue policies that actively make people's live worse if they are providing for children instead of you know......incentivising starting a family???? Even just the absolutely most basic needs like making sure they have food or shelter to you know.....survive to productive adulthood let alone real dealmakers like subsidized childcare.
Late stage capitalism is hostile to families, it’s why we only have 1 child.
since companies basically suck their workforce dry thus making it harder to start families, the most reliable solve to this problem would be to import migrant workforce from other countries. this is a process that cannot be stopped unless governments on day to have a career and care for 2.1 children to keep population from declining
Bingo!
That's because the basic method of just needing more and cheaper labor, which necessitates more births already hints at the companies being exploitative. That means that they don't care if *you* have an easy time having children. If you don't and can't have children, they will move on to exploit others or you in other ways.
There's nothing odd here really. The drive in people to support their family are partly what keeps the economy going: their expenses become other people's earings. But what average people earn are fundamentally controlled by some a few, and eventually taken by the same group. The MAGIC of modern finance.
Nice analysis.
[KEEP ON KEEPING ON!]
let's not forget how disastrous an invasion of Taiwan would be.
imagine invading Ukraine, except Ukraine is an island covered in mountains, has been training to defend itself for 70 years, has one of the best militaries in the world (top 30), has a population that largely opposes unification with China, and is guaranteed to be defended by the most powerful nation in history.
The Chinese are biding their time to develop the technology and tactics to take Taiwan the same way the US effortlessly obliterated Iraq in Desert Storm. This will be designed to shock America specifically.
Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine. China only needs to fire missiles to destroy Taiwan
But imagine the 2nd most powerful milatary invading it
@@yashwardhansable5187 doesn’t matter who you are, invading an island the way they plan to is going to fail
@@craggywag5482Any position in Taiwan is under artillery fire.
In big cities in China, the cost of raising a child is even higher than in the United States, Japan, and South Korea, and the income of ordinary Chinese families is lower than that of families in developed countries, so it is strange that China's birth rate continues to decline.
the income is not exactly accounted for purchasing disparity. While Chinese earn about $10,000. The living standard they have is similar to that of Western European country except they have less crime than France and Italy but lower social trust than Germany or Luxemburg
@@draker769 That's because crime is horrifyingly and significantly overly punished, and they hide TONS and TONS and TONS of crimes to make their numbers look better. They do the same with their GDP and it's estimated to be about 40% less than reported.
The cost is always higher in poorer countries (Switzerland has the highest purchasing power) but if the family doesnt care and gives them a bad life then it doesnt matter.
@@draker769 You cannot really generalize China the difference is huge between big urban centers such as Shanghai and Beijing and the countryside where most Chinese people live. Shanghai is very westernized and the salaries are quite high, the average salary would probably be around $10,000 a year as you say but if you go to the country side that average salary will be $4000 a year in a well-off province and less than $2000 a year in a poor province.
The standard of living in Shanghai is similar to a Western European country however the Chinese countryside is nowhere near the living standard that you find in Europe. My wife's hometown is in a well-off province but even there it's like going back in time. A lot of farmers still use Ox to pull the same plows you could see hundreds of years ago. Your assessment would be correct for maybe the top 10 urban centers, rest of China though.. not so much.
@@draker769😢你有了解过？搞笑
Absolutely fantastic educational video.
It’s a super ominous feeling knowing that China really only has about 7-10 years to realize it’s geopolitic goals before it becomes increasingly improbable and with the United States posturing itself the way it has all signs are pointing to a confrontation.
Nah, China's GDP will keep growing faster than the US because it is much poorer in GDP per capita and the US will be full of latinos without studies.
I don't think that's a must thing. They could actually do it later too if they would be having enough economic and military prowess.
@@peteck007 That's the thing, China's post-covid economy is reaaal bad. Basically, all foreign investment is progressively leaving because of the CCP's stupidity.
lol, horseshite! china cannot do anything on its own, they have to steal others' ideas, and there is no such thing as independent thought or initiative among its populace. 🤣
Its not like china would really win. Their military is not much better than russias.
I don't know if I would perhaps use the words "peace" & "stability" to define the Mao years in China.
Not being in a constant civil war for 5 seconds in china is peace and stability
Including re: India…!
Thanks
Hello great video! but, about the end of the end… Please consider that going out as a way of socialising too. So, when I am at the grocery, supermarket or whatever store or shop, I’m actually walking and socialising. That’s preferable to just sitting at home and getting everything delivered home.
Honestly I felt the economic reform initiative since the late 1970s has a much larger impact in controlling Chinese population in the long run than the one child policy. Improvement of living standards leading to change of perspective is always the most effective contraceptive in any culture.
But Chinese aren't any rich, ~40% of Chinese are still poor people from countryside. And there were much more 20-40 years ago. Without very aggressive population controls these people would have 3-4 children minimum even to these days.
Er ... No.
@@vladimirk7686China has been an agricultural country for a long time, when technology was not developed, one more person meant one more person to work for the family, and now the poorest people in China are those who move from the countryside to the city, the rural area is now the focus of development of the Chinese government, their living cost is very low compared with the big cities. And they can build their own houses cheaply on rural collective land
Industrialization and then the resulting urbanization, by far, reduces birth rates more than anything else world wide. People have less children in cities because of the space constraints and the resulting increased expenses from them. Unless you have a robust immigration policy, your country will slowly age into extinction. All advanced economies have followed this trajectory from WW2 until present day, birth rates directly correlating to the pace of urbanization. The CCP only compounded the problem with their insane 1 child policy and lack of any coherent immigration policy.
@@vladimirk7686 Even poor people can afford smartphones and internet to distract themselves these days. It's game over for humanity. We will cease to exist before the end of this millennium.
As someone who has spent significant time living in both China and Taiwan, I would like to share a few thoughts:
Firstly, the issues of population decline were exacerbated by the One Child Policy and attempts at population control, but it was mostly caused by rapid industrialization and urbanization, creating financial pressures in the real-estate front to make it much harder for families to afford multiple children. This was further made worse by perverse incentives of the government to regulate housing purchases, failure to give citizens access to investment options, and massive speculative large-scale building projects that led to an incredibly over-leveraged housing market.
Secondly, the idea of a slow-fade of China into a gradual decline as presented in this video is the best case scenario, and personally the one I pray for. The reality is that China is incredibly vulnerable and susceptible to economic, social, supply chain, and geopolitical crises. China is both incredibly supply dependent upon imports for energy, agriculture, and materials, as well as dependent upon exports, as it doesn’t have a robust enough consumer base. Anti-Chinese sentiment is only growing in the first-island chain, with the exception of Malaysia and Singapore, and both the growing malaise in American interest to regulate and guarantee global shipping, as well as the heightened rhetoric in trade and international relations between the US and China, it is becoming more likely that China could be cut off from global markets both quickly or gradually, spelling basically the end of China’s industrial capacity.
Thirdly, if China were to move on Taiwan, it would be a death sentence. The Chinese navy, despite all the saber rattling and propaganda, is essentially an oversized diesel-powered fleet with a range of about 400 nautical miles off-shore. That is enough to make it to Taiwan, but when you consider the presence of US military bases in Japan, Korea, the Philippines, et al, as well as the naval presence of Japan which has a vested interested in maintaining Taiwanese independence for its own geopolitical goals, as well as the overwhelming superiority of US naval capabilities, not only would the invasion likely lead to huge numbers of Chinese military casualties, but their Navy wouldn’t be able to respond the litany of vulnerabilities to the Chinese mainland if a hot confrontation were to occur.
If there wasn’t a direct military retaliation by US, Japan, Korea, et al, then there would certainly be complete international sanctions by Europe, the US, India, and a whole host of countries that could easily blockade China from international markets. China imports something like 70% of its energy needs (coal, natural gas, oil, etc.), around 1/3 of its agricultural products, and around 80% of its agricultural support products (fertilizers, pesticides, etc.). Even if China were able to take back Taiwan, it would face widespread famine and blackouts from which it would not recover.
The only reason Russia wasn’t affected in the same circa 2022 is because Russia happens to be a major energy exporter and is fully agriculturally self-sufficient.
On top of this you have major economic vulnerabilities in the real estate and financial sectors. As mentioned earlier, perverse incentives in the housing market have led to most families putting their retirement savings into real estate investment. The Chinese real estate market is so overleveraged through crony capitalism and hyper speculative building development that the collapse that’s around the corner is likely going to make the 2008 US housing crisis look like a child’s tea party. But not only is that going to affect the housing sector, it’s going to wipe out trillions of dollars of retirement savings, that could lead to the tipping point of a social order that’s been predicated on maintaining economic progress since the Deng Xiao Ping days of the 1970s. Cultural/national cohesion is held together by the promise of prosperity, no longer a political ideology. That has worked well the last 40 years when GDP has been in the double digits. The Tiananmen massacre was forgiven and forgotten because people were seeing their wealth increase. If that goes away there isn’t an easy way to avoid complete social uprising and disorder, and possibly regime change/revolution.
Very well said.
Wow as someone who has spent significant time living in China and Taiwan, your analysis sounds very similar to western think tanks who have never lived in China or Taiwan.
@@flowertowerrr Can you explain what was wrong with what he said based on your experience?
@@murkywaters5502its based on conspiracy theorists who hasnt lived in china lol😂😊
This is interesting, I love hearing analysis from someone who knows about this subject on a deeper level than any western analysts (me being a westerner myself lol)
This explains a lot.
12:01 I now understand the family guy grim reaper joke 💀
Just to be clear. Hello fresh is not heaper than shopping, about 10usd a meal. That's 2-3x the price of shopping at the store. and 50% less than eating out. It has a market, but it is not for people who don't eat out often. Just annoyed with their constant claims.
Also great video, perfect break down of the issue and timeframe that decisions makers are working from. Will be sharing this video when these conversations come up.
It's cheaper in marginal terms inasmuch I don't need to buy more than I need.
You're assuming that everyone who buys groceries buys exact quantities of all ingredients and everything gets eaten/used up.
We were on hello fresh for a while, and it was legitimately cheaper than grocery shopping for us due to having basically zero food waste and it solving the problem of mental overhead that made cooking difficult.
Once you get in the swing of things and collect a lot of recipes, you can start shopping a lot more intelligently and get cheaper again, but for a lot of people (me being one) meal prep/portion services like this are legitimately a game changer.
@@BRNKoINSANITY yes definitely true.
@@BRNKoINSANITYn=1 nice sample size of yourself.
@@BRNKoINSANITYMost people use the vast majority of food they buy. When you've got a bunch of left over ingredients you just cook a meal that uses up lots of scraps (like a stir fry or something).
A lot of people say China is going to overtake the US as the global superpower, but I never bought that argument because China has plenty of problems themselves, from this shrinking population, to the lack of water in the Northern cities, to their own housing crisis in the making, and to the lack of allies and insufficient global soft power. People emigrate from China, while people still immigrate to the US.
So u think that US doesn't have that much probs themselves aren't u?
@@sethr4850 You always have a choice, the US just happens to be the best Choice for South and Central Americans.
@@xxmissuo They don't . The USA is one of the rare nations on earth that can be 100% self-sufficient relying on no other source for energy, water, food, building materials, minerals etc. Inside the North American Union they can not just be self-sufficient but have excess and sell and export that which they don't need.
They do not have a shrinking population but one likely to keep growing (and is notorious undercounting).
Unlike China PRC, the USA has a massive variety of allies.
The USA has gigantic soft power, hard power, global networking power, it has bases, banks and major trade and agreements across the planet and with highly significant power.
China has nearly none of those things.
The USA has nearly ALL those things.
So, the answer is no, nobody thinks the USA has those problems other than some Mainland Chinese cut-off from the outside world, fed relentless 'USA is declining China number ONE!' stories and that's especially dangerous as they start wondering why this weak foolish little USA isn't being "Punished" yet?
Why isn't it being "punished"?
Hmm.. maybe something doesn't add up.
To add some more:
US has a lot of natural resources, while China other than rare earths, has little.
US has a LOT of flat land for large scale agriculture, while China is limited.
China has a lot of disputes and conflits with its neighboring countries, while the US is rather more stable with its neighbors.
The defacto international currency is the US dollar, and it is extremely hard to change even in several years, if it does change. And to date, no currency can challenge the US dollar by a very long shot.
The only upper hand that China has is work force and an authoritarian government, which carries out policies faster and silences social unrest more easily.
If China's AI technology cannot dominate in the future, then I don't see how China will overtake the US as the global superpower in any way possible.
@@xxmissuo I didn’t say that, but what I am saying is that while the US has many major problems, China does too.
A great documentary from the mid to late 2000s is "Demographic Winter". I highly recommend it. Might still be on youtube
India is 70% rural. Big cities like Delhi and Mumbai make up under 5% of the population. Yet there seems to be an obsession with using 90s stock video of Indian metro cities to represent the country. And if you understand India through its villages, you will understand why its population has surpassed China.
But, do you think that this could lead to a disaster for India 🇮🇳 if you have a nationwide drought or flooding?
Those are a lot of mouths to feed & countries like Nigeria and Ethiopia face a similar problem.
69% in 2011... currently (2021 data) 64% and going down
Everything tends to equalize, more so with instant media access
Yeah, because on the farm, kids are basically free labor, so you have as many as you can.
India's urbanization rate is hovering steadily between 1.3% and 1.5% yearly, and likely will continue around this rate for some time, while the birth rate has only recently hit right at or just under the replacement rate on average, so the growth in population does appear to be headed upward for a good while, but at a steadily slowing rate. Also I think the stock footage thing is an issue of availability and recognition more than anything. Those bits of footage are the easiest to find and most easily recognizable as "India" for the average (western) viewer.
@@insertnamehere5809government always stores food for such kind of situations,
I'm glad RLL covered this! In the past couple years, China hitting its population (and maybe economic) peak sooner than expected has been a big story just under the radar. I'm pretty sure this is why the USAF is fast-tracking next generation aircraft while also pursuing "quick fixes" like the **Rapid Dragon** program and modernizing the F-22. China looks to have only about 10 years of opportunity left: they know it, we know it, everyone knows it. So if the world order is to be reordered, they have to make the move sooner rather than later. After that, their economy will strain under the weight of their demographic problems, and they won't have the resources to challenge the geopolitical order.
You know their dictator president or chairman guy can ban condoms right?
After 10 years, China still have 1.2 billions people, even the young rate is low compared with other countries, it is easy for China to have millions soldiers. Your statement does not many any sense at all.
Brookings institute on the population decline in China: "...None of this is to trivialize the significance of China’s rise or the challenges it could pose to the United States and its allies..."
Even without the population decline I had China with a decade time window.
When you consider they should have economic problems with their real estate market, municipal bonds crisis, business leaving because of rising labor costs as well as foreign investment leaving because of hostility to due diligence firms, large youth unemployment/underemployment and costs of maintaining that navy, the window of wealth and stability that would allow them to fight a modern war for long is small.
@@hufe223 Which would create a black market for contraception and does nothing about probable upcoming economic problems - a world recession will hit China real hard.
And they currently have a 20%+ unemployment rate for 16-25, 45% underemployment rate for 25-30 as well as a population that is generally tired from the 996 philosophy.
Guess what - people living in those conditions don't have as many children.
On top of the fact that children born now take 16-18 years to be reasonably economically productive.
22:30 - the kid with "THANKS FOR NOTHING" t-shirt XD
13:33 I gagged at the only baby legs being born graphic 😂
Forgot to include Finland as part of the NATO graphic at ~04:12 🙂
Bro got too used to Finland not being a NATO member that he forgot to include them
Was just looking at same thing.
Still
Finland are a western ally
Even non nato members like Austria and sweden are also western allies
I’m impressed he didn’t mention about the population collapse in the west and the great replacement going on in every single country he mentioned are America’s allies.
I can't fathom the fact how deep and detailed analysis it must have taken to be able to make this video. Excellent work as always!
how this video deep and detailed ??? this video is very biased anti china and make no sense at all btw , he dont know anything about china at all since he never been in china ,never interact with chinese community or forum on internet ,what i notice from western media video about china is they lack understand about real china ,they never diccuss with real chinese ,everything is just from western perspective
I wish the Chinese government wouldn’t watch this, for Taiwan’s sake. But I’m sure they know these things already, just not stated in such stark terms.
@@dforrest4503 I don't think anyone in the Chinese government spends their time watching RLL videos. They have all this data and more.
Oh? I gave up after the first four minutes, where he kept repeating the same 15 seconds of population data over and over and over.
most info is found on a single webpage of the united nations. just google probabilistic population projections united nations.
By 6 minutes I think the title of the video made its point, and sounded like it was wrapping up... Then I realized there was 25 (Twenty FIVE) more minutes left. Wow. Time to strap in and go podcast mode.
I like how 22:00 mentions that as China's population decreases, the wage of the average Chinese worker will go up and that this will kill their economy. It's telling how the population "crisis" of the world's population retracting is always talked about as a disaster...because it destroys the bottom line of the owners, not the workers. Smaller developed populations have higher quality of lives all across the board and the biggest developed countries like the US and China are fraying apart at the seams with a massive amount of mentally ill people and social disruptions, but population decline is always portrayed as a black and white issue where small=bad and big=good despite the fact that if you're in the bottom 99% of wealth holders in a nation, living in a big populous country is almost universally awful for you.
That's why Japan hasn't turned to the solution the west has to ethnically displace its native population with mass immigration, because they recognize that for the people, having a smaller population is a good thing, and they're willing to let their billionaire class lose a bit of wealth to have a mentally healthy nation of united 99%ers instead of the capitalistic nightmare North America and western Europe have opted for.
It doesn't get a lot of attention, but Japan monitors China's salt consumption. Not industrial, food salt. They have seen a major decline over several decades. Their current estimate is between 800 - 900 million. Officially China reports 1.2 Billion. The declines tracked by Japan show that the death tolls from SARS and Covid were much larger than officially reported. Interestingly, this number closely matches the number of citizens from the Shanghai Police data breach. Again, this is not an official total, just a guess based on external data.
Yup ,according to a professor at the University of Beijing ,subdivisions of China inflate their population number to receive more fund from the central government (Like what Corsica did in France ,from the 1830's to the 1950's ,in the XIXth century ,Corsica had both the oldest population (It was the territory in the world where the percentage of people that were more than 65 years old was the highest) ,the least young in the population (Lowest percentage of less than 15 years old) and also had huge emigration (Going to France mainland ,Italy ,Spain ,Caribbean ,Central America) ,there population was already decreasing naturally in the 1830's so on every census ,they falsified their number to make it seem like they were growing in population ,to receive more fund ,and they were only caught falsifying in the 50's) ,this professor estimate the real population of China to be 1,28 Billions ,then there is 2 study ,a Russian one (Based on vaccines ,real one ,not the physiological saline solution of the Cold-19) ,they estimate the population to be 800 Millions ,and a Japanese one (Based on Salt) which estimate it at 850 Millions .
China also lies about it's GDP ,with it's economy ,the quality of life in China should atleast be at the level of Romania ,Bulgaria or Albania ,but no ,it's much lower ,and so the lowest estimate put the real GDP of China at 40% of the official number ,and the highest estimate at 60% of the official number (Official number based on a population of 1,4 Billion)
wow that is so clever, I never thought about how you could use statistics to decipher state lies like that. because its not like groups of people majorly change their salt consumption year to year, so it would be a fairly consistent way to estimate population.
Excellent point. Most China commentary, this video included, accepts at face value and repeats the CCP's official economic and population figures; this is especially true for analysis originating from financial institutions (Goldman Sachs, hedge funds, gurus like Ray Dalio) which are heavily exposed to the Chinese market after decades of investment, and have every incentive not to question the CCP's official figures. The Chinese economy is likely significantly smaller than officially reported.
I never heard about that. Does anyone has an article dealing with this subject?
Interesting. Does this mean the 8 years time window stated in the video are too optimistic (for China)?
This guy teaches me geography better than my geography teacher!😊
He also teaches you a lot of WASP BS and you don't even know it
this isn't geography, its demographics
I didn’t even get get to Asia in geography
That says more about you than it does him, or your teacher
i learn more in 30 seconds of an RLL video than i did in an entire year of AP Human Geography
1:10 “contracting slightly” 😅😅
I appreciate the ad was at the end
MacArthur: Nuke Em!
Truman: No!
MacArthur: NUKE EM!
Truman: NO!
MacArthur: AH COME ON!
Truman: You’re fired!
@@amadell1449 reference to an oversimplified video on the cold war
a
@@drewcline422 Which is in turn not relevant to this video.
@@amadell1449 bro just wants to get early likes
@@slic3y68 dude, uncool
The UN projections are based on a lot of rosy assumption and don't capture how precarious the situation for China really is. It's possible that there are far fewer young people in the country than reported and the population could start to even more precipitously than current projections.
no really? china might be fabricating its demographic stats? it thought it was perfectly possible for a country to have a (supposed) birth rate of 1.4 and no immigration for 3 decades and still growing until 2022. India has obviously been #1 for at least 10 years now, the chinese government is just lying to us.
Almost every statistic using CCP sources that can't be externally verified is highly questionable
If you read the projections, they have high low and most likely estimates. The low estimates for China are really low... Like, 488 million low. Potentially a lower population than the US in 2100.
However, the I would say low estimate is unlikely.
Rosy assumption is one way to put it. I think China has so many remote cities/villages due to their environment that they're similar to Brazil in a way. I think it is genuinely difficult to gather such projections without having reasonable variance on both ends of aisle.. meaning it can be higher or lower from a year to year basis
And young people aren‘t productive if they have no jobs. In fact, they will protest, and the CCP has created rural programs which essentially send the young folks into the rural countryside to prevent these protests. Obviously, these young people will not be contributing to China‘s economy.
Nice video. Top party members usually live for a lot longer than the average Chinese subject.
Title: " China is shrinking fast "
Content: "they are going to invade Taiwan! "
Beautiful video as always. One thing to mention is Taiwan's own population decline, as its birthrate has also been under replacement levels for a while. However, it's managing to entice more foreign nationals (such as myself) to the country across a variety of sectors and is making moves to make it even easier (such as the ambitious - as in, will probably be missed - target of having a bilingual Mandarin-English speaking country by 2030).
If we apply to the 3:1 ratio of invading to defending forces, China doesn't have the manpower in its conventional armed forces when Taiwan's reserves are taken into account. Let alone the barrier of the Taiwan Straight to deal with restricting troop deployment. I'm not a military expert, so if anybody knows a video that takes this into account, I'd appreciate a heads up!
I'd love to see a video on the reasons why China might not invade after all; the potential economic consequences for invading Taiwan at the crux of a demographic time-bomb could be catastrophic, and it would be great to see some numbers crunched.
Again, great video!
people uses to exaggerate the difficulty for Communist China to take Taiwan,
in 40s, the Nationalists had several millions soldiers with US advanced weapons, occupied 3/4 of Mainland China, still lost to the Communist China,
then Mao reunify Xiniang, Tibet, Inner Mongot and Hainan island,
it seemed to be mission impossible, but Communist China achieved it,
@@EmilechenNo China numba one
@@Emilechen you mean conquered Tibet. They did not reunify with Tibet.
LOL. Given Taiwan army’s low morality, inferior weapons and insufficient training, I don’t think Taiwan stands any chance against PLA.
@@Hovertankabsolutely correct. In 1950 china invaded Tibet and even today has to have a major militia base outside of each major town or city to keep control. I've been to Tibet, it's damn obvious the Tibetans do n t want the Chinese there.
I found you (or the name of your channel to be more specific) like a month ago, after which I watched every video still available here, aswell as on FakeLifeLore, RealLifeLore2, Grand Test Auto and BioArk, which are like 400 videos or so. Im gonna say I learned a lot (which I totally will forget most of sadly), but Im do not regret a single second.
Most favourite videos where those about old countries or similar just spawned right back to existance.
Following that I would love to see how the African Union and the Arab League as a country would do on the world stage each
Greetings from Germany
This makes me unbelievably happy.
Cheaper than grocery shopping? Not sure how it is in the US, but over here in europe, it's like 3x the price of grocery shopping. It only ever makes sense if you are a heavily working person with not much time, but you don't wanna completely give up on cooking and want to be able to whip up something fast in 15-20 minutes.
A lot of military TH-camrs have commented that an invasion in the near future would go poorly due to the lack of supply and transport ships halting an invasion, sanctions crippling the economy, and the current strength of Taiwan's allies but others have commented that it would go poorly in the future due to the mobilization of pretty much every country surrounding China in the region
That's the problem of any full scale war today, the world is locked the same way the world was before WW1. Everyone as alliances and defense packs with each other, were no one country can wage a war on another without some form of intervention. If china attacks taiwan, then the USA gets involved, japan gets involved, south korea, indochina, indonesia, etc etc.
NO COUNTRY WUD WANT THEIR PEOPLE TO DIE FOR TAIWAN. WHAT WILL PREVENT CHINA FROM INVADING TAIWAN IS THAT THEY DO NOT WANT TO KILL THIER BROTHERS N SISTERS. THE TAIWANESE R CHINESE BY BLOOD. THEY SHARE THE SAME CULTURE. SPEAK THE SAME DIALECT N NATIONAL LANGUAGE.
awesome bro
I am Chinese. Why do western countries always like to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries? Taiwan has always been a province of China. Why do you call it an invasion? It is a recapture. If Taiwan is a country according to Western logic, then Hawaii of the United States should also be a country, and Ryukyu of Japan should also be a country. Why do you always do things with double standards?
Why would all these countries suddenly mobilize against China when they have nothing to do with the Strait issue and their largest trading partner is China? Are they all just dumb and want to commit harakiri like Germany did by bending over after you-know-who blew NS2 up?
Humans still existing by the end of this century? That is optimism.
Humans will. Will we ? Not sure
Humanity will likely survive for a few thousand more years. Possibly even as long as 10 thousand.
Theres no reason whatsoever to think otherwise. Nuclear war, is.. as unlikely as ever. An Asteroid we will see coming. Aliens. Won't actually care to bother with wiping us out. And even with the dreaded nonsense claims of Climate Change being wholly inaccurate.. even with that.. humanity will survive.
The world 200-1000 years from now will be a very different place just just same as 200-1000 years ago was different. But humans will still exist.
There's no real reason to believe otherwise
Humans will survive, though will truth, independence and justice..?
👉😷💉
it will be a miracle if humans doesn't cease to exist by the end of this century. 💀💀💀
@Noah-or9vp
Why..?
The collective wisdom of the majority doesn't reflect the collective wisdom of a minority, there's plenty of hope for those who can read the playing field..!
Hah, I often pass by the street at 2:52
to relieve this problem, 50% of middle school students in CN can't enter high school and finally hard to enter college(they enter vocational school). So the most likely choice for them is to enter manual labor factory. This makes peer competition increasingly fierce.
i don't know about how EU and US students choose either vocational school or college. Were they sorted by exam, same as cn?
In EU you take high school exit exams and must take exams to stay in college. But vocational school is done in the high school so you get both tech education and academic studies.
In the US they used to push poor kids and black kids into voc-tech but in the 70s they started pushing everyone into college prep tracks. Still, many never went to college. But young people now mostly try to go to college or trade schools for certifications so they can get a good job. In the US it's more about money than exam scores. And money often causes college students to drop out.
Very informative as always. Thank you.
He is telling people to breed more humans to solve poverty and food shortage
Have you published handy links to this data for other countries? The GDP, peak age population time series data would be super interesting for other countries and for comparing countries.
Check out CIA data sheets.
29:53 oh no a metal fork on a non stick pot!
Peter Ziehan informed me of this five years ago.
Will you be doing one for japan as well? They are one of the fastest aging and shrinking population and i think itll give up insights into how theyre managing or planning to manage it.
Every western country including the US has already faced this. They solved it with a cheat code called immigration. Japan is trying to do the same thing. China can't replicate this because China isn't an attractive place to live.
i though the main answer was
1) robots
2) perhaps be just a little less unfriendly toward migrants for jobs robots can't do..
but japan really is scared of becoming diverse and loosing it's identity.. so they won't start a real huge immigration politic..
@@JeroenJA Unless they start an expanded immigration policy, there won't BE a Japan to lose its identity. I understand the will to preserve their wonderful culture, but unless they are prepared for certain concessions, all of it will be lost anyway. My worry is that it seems indeed, as if Japan aren't prepared to make enough cultural concessions.
RealLifeLore made a video around a year ago on Japan’s population decline titled “Why Japan is Shrinking Fast.” Though it doesn’t talk much about how the government is tackling the problem.
@@predabot__6778populations will never decline to the point of just disappearing naturally. In general, the shrinking east asian countries all have the same issue: severe competition over resources (jobs, increasing housing costs, increasing education costs, increasing cost of living needing 2 working adults). Currently those countries are all severely overpopulated and need to decrease for a bit to free up space for new generations without requiring migrants. Migrants are a bandaid solution that will destroy the culture.
That is why US is reinforcing the 1st island chain from Japan to Philippines(PH). The establishment of security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS) aims to contain China too. The US is also actively making more presence in the South China Sea area by building new Airstrips, Missile silos, Military bases mostly within PH, and the 1st Island Chain. While within China, more and more foreign businesses are trying to reduce their operations within China, while the Rich and Powerful Chinese are fleeing China too.
I would say the best window for China to launch a n invasion is unfortunately, right now.
Thanks Johnny Harris
@@skullknight8464blud you're saying like China doesn't trap African countries in debt to force them to be loyal to China.
😂真的有好好了解吗
@@markdelauwstethat’s cold bruh 💀
you mean to say its too late and i agree
BEST TH-cam channel by far!
Talking about 2100... we'll probably encounter some major civilization-ending event by then
thank you so much rll. This video has put so many of my worries to rest and I appretiate how informative and non-biased this video is. I am in constant fear of this invasion and its potential coniquences and this has made me feel so much better about it. Thank you so much and I love your content.
It's so biased it's even funny. The facts are not distorted as far as I know, but the whole USA focus is a giant bias.
@@flavioso20that’s not biased but a point of view or POV or a theme
this video is very biased anti china and make no sense at all btw , he dont know anything about china at all since he never been in china ,never interact with chinese community or forum on internet ,what i notice from western media video about china is they lack understand about real china ,they never diccuss with real chinese ,everything is just from western perspective
@@flavioso20 I see your point but my comment still stands :)
@@flavioso20Everything is Biased. As long as the information is correct, I don’t see why that is a problem.
I watched all the modern conflict series on Nebula. Damm bro is awesome as the top animation companies
we hope so
I also feel like the only possible way of eldercare is if you have (by law) deposit a percentige of your own money for yourself. And you get access after you cannot work any more.
Think about this : Most of the soldiers in PLA are only childs, sons, of their parents.
When China goes to war and only childs of people start dying in a needless war, what happens domestically in China?
Good point
Americans back home could not handle any deaths. A aircraft carrier sunk with 3000 dead would send U.S in to protests chaos with 'get out of South China Sea.'
Referring to the Ukrainian war, how many people do you think will die on the battlefield, 50000? 100000? Even if it's 100000, do you think it will have a serious impact on a country with a population of 1 billion? China's annual natural death toll exceeds 10 million
Considering that there's no real safety net in Mainland China, this could be a disaster.
China doesn't want war. I'm case it breaks out they'll try using machines, drones, etc as much as possible..
When the age diagram looking the working age population was showed, you forgot a very crucial detail.
The retirement age in China is 60 for men and 55-50 for women.
They are looking to raise the retirement age and the horrible air polution in urban areas helps to make sure people don’t live as long, but this is a huge issue that adds onto the existing one of a birth rate below replacement rate.
I had no idea. China would be screwed if the age was 65, but at 60 for men and 55 for women, the situation is even worse than I thought it was
why retirement age for women is lower when it is a scientific fact that women live longer
The idea of that policy is already creating some dissatisfaction. Add that to the lying flat meme going around because of unemployment/underemployment and work to death philosophy from 996 and you have a lot of people hating the governement.
You have young people - who are the most reckless - feeling like they have nothing to lose and their elders who may potentially calm them down feeling like they have nothing to lose.
There’s also very heavy resistance from women (and feminists) against raising the retirement age of women to match men’s retirement age. China would have to strongarm that change if they want to stay productive longer.
@@harshvardhansingh1300 You’re surprised that a totalitarian/communist state has completely redundant laws?
15:20 oh wow, they almost made their age pyramid look like a pagoda
Hilarious. I was familiar with the disaster that has been the One Child Policy. I hadn't known about their previous efforts. 😊
When I grew up Germany had 81 million people and it was projected to drop down to 75 million by now. A couple refugee crisis' and a lightly recovering birth rate later we stand at 84 million instead.
What I wanna say with this is to always take these projections with a grain of salt because they often ignore the big picture. I always like pointing to Niger for that. This dirt-poor, landlocked nation in the Sahel Zone is projected to have a population twice that of Egypt today by the end of the century. That happens when you give a data analyst numbers to scale up or down but nobody bothers to ask "and what are they supposed to eat?".
You are right. But to explain Germanys increase in population, the slightly improved birth-rate is irrelevant in comparison to immigration. So the reason for the 84 million is imigration and that is something China can't do, even if they tried. There are simply not enough available immigrants for that.
Even increasing the birth rate might not stop Chinas decline, since, due to selective abortion, there are much more young men than women. And because (Cis)men can't give birth (shoking, I know), the number of women is the deciding factor how large a follow-up generation can be.
i mean china had the idiotic 1 child policy, thats why they're going down soo fast, and India will at some point also go down
Germany isn’t an example. It’s 7M immigrants
The refugees didn't stop population decline but only postponed it. When it comes to Germany, only 13% of population is below 15 years old, and 22% is above 65 for contrast. Soon the retirees would start dying and then the population will decline. This would happen in all Europe.
And the birth rate didn't recover. It's still way below 2,1 child per woman that is needed for generation replacement. This (again) happens in all Europe. The only advanced country that has generation-replacement-level in fertility is Israel.
this is actually great for them and the wordl...less resources needed and they can give better life conditions to their population..
We really wanted to be friends... It's amazing how 15 years makes such a difference in geopolitics.
and I'd say not even 15 but less than 10. actually just about 2014 is when, despite the US and world still just wanting to be friends, somehow (someone) around 2014-15 consolidates power and from then on its a very very fast road to not being their friend anymore. :(
@@topsuperseven7910 The nature of authoritarian governments. Under Bush, we handed absolutely everything China needed to become a superpower on a silver platter. In return they spit in our faces and pretend as if we never helped them, becoming our greatest enemy instead.
Things really took a turn for the worse after the Pooh bear consolidated his power.
@@wnose nope its after trump became president and declare trade war against china and he lose lol
@@topsuperseven7910 its since trump became president and declare war against china and he lose so bad lol
Good!
Damn, those losses compared to all of the US losses from every war we've ever been in is astronomical
The one child policy really showed some results, though I doubt they were the results that the minds that conceived such policy were expecting.
they should have let the population grow uncontrollably and then simply encourage emigration, unleashing an even greater flood of chinese into all countries in the world.
@@DerToasti or have applied a two children policy. No need to go from one extreme to the other.
@@DerToasti That didn't seem like a good strategy back in the 60s when other countries still had borders and made decisions on how many people to let in. The people who made the one child policy didn't know that western countries would totally go crazy and suicidal and just let in anyone from the 1990s on.
That is why it is so dumb when people go on and on about how smart the Chinese are and how they are operating on 100 year plans and playing the long game and all that nonsense.
The opposite is the case.
The CCP has always been and still is just coming up with idiotic ideas, forced the people into those and when things inevitably backfire, they panic and implement new, sweeping counter-policies to their previous policies.
The Covid Lockdowns and the One Child Policy are just 2 out of many examples.
A few years back the government suddenly, after promoting higher education for generations and creating a culture in which regular blue collar jobs were seen as shameful and embarrassing, figured out that now there were too many university students and not enough vocational workers and instead of slowly steering back and promoting vocational education, they basically just told millions of college students that their degrees were now worthless and that the government wouldn't hire them anymore and they even turned colleges into vocational schools over night, without even telling the enlisted students first.
Imagine you enlist at a college, aiming for a white collar job and after studying for a few years the government suddenly decides that your college isn't a college anymore but a trades school now, your degree won't be a college degree and you will only be able to get a blue collar job after graduating because there aren't enough factory workers anymore. And that after everyone you know has been telling you your whole life that only getting a blue collar job means you are a miserable failure and everyone will look down on you.
That is the situation millions of students suddenly faced in China. There were large, violent protests, but as usual, they were not covered by the western media, who has financial incentives to go along with CCP propaganda.
They are like someone falling asleep at the wheel of a driving car, suddenly waking up, jerking the steering wheel in one direction, then jerking the wheel into the other direction when the car almost drives off the road and constantly jerking left and right without finding back into a normal, steady path along the road.
@@TrangleCmigration laws were much more lax in the past, what are you talking about?
On the other hand, an ageing and declining population is less likely to rebel and if they do rebel, easier to put down. A declining population actually makes it more likely for the Communist regime to survive for longer, especially if they manage to conquer Taiwan and eliminate the ideological threat. The interests of the Communist regime and the country of China are vastly different.
Nooooooo now my 2000 piece puzzle of the world map is wrong!! (it has a chart of most populated countries)
14:15 Lmao, where do you even get these stock footages?
Love catching these so quick lol
same
Honestly, I've never thought of geopolitics in this way before, thank you.
The emphasis on population is very misleading. A large population can be more of a hindrance than an advantage as hundreds of millions still remain in poverty in China.
@@sutapasbhattacharya9471 Also leaves out human biodiversity, you can have a huge population and just be africa.
@@sutapasbhattacharya9471 Completely agree. I think others ignore the advantage of having your population simmer down after an insane leap rather than thinking "growth" should be imminent and forever as if that isn't toxic
The reason why India's population exploded is because last century is because 2 centuries of British colonialism turned India from a land famed for its great wealth throughout history to a land of poverty. Britain industrialized and grew rich [with its population exploding] and funding social reforms by looting India whilst pauperizing and deindustrializing India, killing tens of millions in dozens of manmade famines.
Search Jason Hickel India for two AJEnglish articles about this that will shock those who have had these facts hidden from them [inc. 100 million dying of starvation in 40 years].
@@sutapasbhattacharya9471 In the past few decades, their wage growth has surpassed that of many poor countries
The only solution I could see to the economic challenges is a shift to automating factories, but the automatons can be replicated anywhere in the world, the people cannot.
China's population has declined further than my hairline💀
Just a bandaid and not a cure, but in Japan now, there is a category of jobs known as silver jobs that retirees do as part time work. That's why at fast food restaurants there are often grannies sweeping the floor and taking your tray when you finish or grandpas standing with the "detour" signs in front of construction areas.
This Guy Is The Best Geography Channel Out There And Definitely Top 10 Channels All Time
( Love Your Videos, Greetings From Turkey!! ❤❤❤)
What other channels do you recommend?
@@sirmanolo Let Me Think... Oh, I Know! I Like To Watch @jonny harris As Well.