Really helpful & honest conversation ... thank you. I think the biggest wild card in the game is actually ... that bigger picture significant world events are happening & changing the world so fast that nobody seems to know what's next. It's got people on all sides of the fence baffled, cautious, & hitting the pause button.
4 to 5 % rate will be the norm for next 5 years or more. Rate pause to start 2023 and till 2024. That means the real estate needs to adjust accordingly going forward. The idea that real estate can only go up forever with low rate is just born of pure lunacy. Get use to 4 to 5% rate as the ideal rate going forward
Just compare the mortgage costs for last 4 yrs. Then you will see prices would have to correct to 2018 levels for mortgages to compensate. If a trading chartist was analyzing the real estate market they would also note the channel that existed between 2016 and 2020. That's 20-25% below where we are now. So I'm expecting maybe a cut of 15-20% by Q1 of next yr. As for the huge spike between 2020 and 2022, that was created by the gov't pouring money into the economy. The money supply effectively was pumped by 28%. That spike made no sense beyond this. Rates aren't coming down much. For the central banks to keep inflation at bay they will have to keep rates above 3.5-4% base rate. In the end, risk needs to be reintroduced into the real estate market. For 20 yrs it's been shear stupidity with everybody pumping the market. Re: immigration. Totally agree. The left wing numbskulls calling everybody racist if they talk about controlling immigration because we can't build enough. Holy cow, wake up donkeys. We need to build proper housing for population growth and these people need to be integrated into society. It takes time to find them jobs, teach English, find housing, schools, healthcare needs to expand....
The thing I find about both Steve and John, is that neither are bulls or bears in the housing market. They are just doing a full analysis without the putting any spin on things to support a narrative. I enjoy both of their content regularly and find it very informational. The excellent questions by Urmi also help. 👏
Thank you Urmi great questions and a good start to the New Year and Happy New year to You, John and Steve! There will be plenty to talk about in the new year that's guaranteed, so Cheers to the new year and let's just see how this all shapes up so many interesting topics to come yet. Also, I have a funny feeling some big shocking new things may happen this year, so we must all buckle up for what's about to be a Wild Ride!
Most home purchases are made by end users. They're not sitting in their home calculating the value of their home in real-time. They're in it for the long haul
If using honest numbers (most ppl don’t), a 3.5% cap rate on an SFD in the GVRD is only possible if you’re talking about SFDs in the burbs w main living area + 2 rental suites and market rents. I own triplexes w long term tenants in the burbs that generate only 2% cap rates; if I were getting market rents cap rates would be ~3%.
I think a graduated real estate tax should be implemented ...thus increasing taxes for a 2nd , 3rd and 4th etc homes they own .... this will help free up more housing on the market ... and lower prices even more etc
Thanks for your question, yes, there is a staggered effect due to types of mortgages held - our mortgage expert Dave Larock has just blogged about this at MoveSmartly.com (see his point #4 specifically): www.movesmartly.com/articles/mortgage-rate-forecast-and-predictions-for-2023 - thanks, Urmi
Absolutely! The population growth and housing growth are out of sync. What's not talked about is the geriatric population emigrating that comes along with the younger new arrival. Mom, PoP, Granny and Grampy are bottlenecking our hospitals and long-term care facilities.
Really helpful & honest conversation ... thank you. I think the biggest wild card in the game is actually ... that bigger picture significant world events are happening & changing the world so fast that nobody seems to know what's next. It's got people on all sides of the fence baffled, cautious, & hitting the pause button.
4 to 5 % rate will be the norm for next 5 years or more. Rate pause to start 2023 and till 2024. That means the real estate needs to adjust accordingly going forward. The idea that real estate can only go up forever with low rate is just born of pure lunacy. Get use to 4 to 5% rate as the ideal rate going forward
You heard it here eddo got his crystal ball out and it’s showing us the future .
Good luck, the economy is already falling apart. BoC overnight lending rate will be sub 3% by this time next year. If not sooner
@@timber543 I don’t think Trudeau wants his legacy to include tanking the economy and making the average middle class Canadian bankrupt.
@@jtome84-91 in denial I see
@@markz1013 denial of what ? Don’t know where you leave but where I’m at in Vancouver don’t expect prices to drop more than 10 percent
Just compare the mortgage costs for last 4 yrs. Then you will see prices would have to correct to 2018 levels for mortgages to compensate. If a trading chartist was analyzing the real estate market they would also note the channel that existed between 2016 and 2020.
That's 20-25% below where we are now. So I'm expecting maybe a cut of 15-20% by Q1 of next yr. As for the huge spike between 2020 and 2022, that was created by the gov't pouring money into the economy. The money supply effectively was pumped by 28%. That spike made no sense beyond this. Rates aren't coming down much. For the central banks to keep inflation at bay they will have to keep rates above 3.5-4% base rate.
In the end, risk needs to be reintroduced into the real estate market. For 20 yrs it's been shear stupidity with everybody pumping the market.
Re: immigration. Totally agree. The left wing numbskulls calling everybody racist if they talk about controlling immigration because we can't build enough. Holy cow, wake up donkeys. We need to build proper housing for population growth and these people need to be integrated into society. It takes time to find them jobs, teach English, find housing, schools, healthcare needs to expand....
Can you include Calgary and Montreal housing ? This would give a more realistic pic of Canadian housing
Thanks for your feedback - this is something we'll look to do in future! - Urmi
The thing I find about both Steve and John, is that neither are bulls or bears in the housing market. They are just doing a full analysis without the putting any spin on things to support a narrative. I enjoy both of their content regularly and find it very informational. The excellent questions by Urmi also help. 👏
Thank you Urmi great questions and a good start to the New Year and Happy New year to You, John and Steve! There will be plenty to talk about in the new year that's guaranteed, so Cheers to the new year and let's just see how this all shapes up so many interesting topics to come yet. Also, I have a funny feeling some big shocking new things may happen this year, so we must all buckle up for what's about to be a Wild Ride!
Da Nile is a river in Egypt
Most home purchases are made by end users. They're not sitting in their home calculating the value of their home in real-time. They're in it for the long haul
Should I buy a rental property in Calgary?
If using honest numbers (most ppl don’t), a 3.5% cap rate on an SFD in the GVRD is only possible if you’re talking about SFDs in the burbs w main living area + 2 rental suites and market rents. I own triplexes w long term tenants in the burbs that generate only 2% cap rates; if I were getting market rents cap rates would be ~3%.
Remember that family homes sales are tax free - so why wouldn’t they?
Cap rates at 3.5-4% for a fully paid off home. Holding bonds pays better. Bye bye investors ✌️
I think a graduated real estate tax should be implemented ...thus increasing taxes for a 2nd , 3rd and 4th etc homes they own .... this will help free up more housing on the market ... and lower prices even more etc
I like John Pasalis' comment. Current immigration levels are too high. Also Steve Saretsky's comment. Developers are not going to develop.
I think most sellers are optimistic. As the number shows listing is lacking. TH-cam is pessimistic
1 bd condos in Vancouver are still around 550ks, I don't see the crash at all.
Do you think only small portion of people getting impacted due to rate hikes as most ppl has fixed rate ?
Thanks for your question, yes, there is a staggered effect due to types of mortgages held - our mortgage expert Dave Larock has just blogged about this at MoveSmartly.com (see his point #4 specifically): www.movesmartly.com/articles/mortgage-rate-forecast-and-predictions-for-2023 - thanks, Urmi
Absolutely! The population growth and housing growth are out of sync.
What's not talked about is the geriatric population emigrating that comes along with the younger new arrival.
Mom, PoP, Granny and Grampy are bottlenecking our hospitals and long-term care facilities.
lighting on Urmi and John is good but bad on Steve.
Thanks for watching us Peter! Steve was not joining us from his usual location so he had less control over that this time :) - Urmi
SKIP BNN