At 2:27 for eg, im surprised HJ is playing rfi only and no open jams. given how wide they should be getting called, they should be playing more open shoves. we see this in normal pko as well, could you share your thoughts?
@@bungakat Do you mean, that the solver is trying to stack of only after seeing favourable board? Not jamming because no fold equity ? I really dont get that. BTN on the other hand has 20bb but has no opens only jams.
Last live mystery bounty I played I counted 9 ATC spots (on either of the push or fold sides) that people passed. A lot from poker pros, and some even RFI + fold to small stack jam. I even saw a guy covering raise and fold showing an A! 😱 So on one hand the $EV that people leave on the table is absolutely stupid, on the other hand money goes out of the tournament so damn quickly. It also feels pretty bad getting super deep and playing for small prizes. So not sure if I love or hate the format, at the very least people will catch on at some point and it will definitely become bad.
Yo bungakat, is this the actual solve for mystery bounty tournies? Ie if you are the covering stack, more likely than not you’re putting your stack in to get the bounty almost no matter what, even if it means there’s a high likelihood you will bust since someone else covers you and has a better hand. Or is this just a 1 “solution” based on many that the solver can potentially give. I ask because I think I’ve been following the “correct” strategy recently, and it only works out unless I get super super lucky, where as if I wait for better spots, the bounties come more naturally in addition to laddering up
It would be awesome node locking the oops like if they were way too tight (i think thats the reality in the tables) and if vilains only call 15% or less, how we want to actullay adapt and play! ty my man nice vid!
What was the average stack size of the whole field in this example? its pretty relavant infromation, im guessing its like 40bb-50bb or something for the stack off ranges to be this wide.
The next video should be nodelocked to population tendencies and how we exploit them! Main notes from this video - 1. Raise any two when we cover stacks and 2. Call any two versus shoves that we cover and 3. Go all in with any 2 versus raises when we cover 😂
I am not a pro but IMO I would adjust this to like top 75% of hands since most people will be way tighter than the model IRL. Probably any2 suited is fine and any Kxo and any semi connected offsuit like T6o. Just a guess though
Yeah, its in ICM and considers payouts. Problem is that the average KO is too high in these examples. If all the big ones go out and small one will be left it would play more normal
Interesting model, but I don't think risk premium is the only metric. Especially later in the tournament when the big bounties are gone AND the payjumps increase it might be more useful to think in terms of bounty power, however early ITM it's clear that the bounties are so much more important than survival.
I just watched both coachings on mystery bounties on bbz and I think you are ignoring something important. The solutions for this mystery bounties dont consider future game. Suppose its a 6 max table and every one has 5bb, except sb has 10bb and you have 100bb, if everyone folds to the sb and he jams, the solver is going to say you should call any two. However why would you call with 23o when you are the only one who covers him and you can wait for a better hand to call him. Please let me know what you think because I think the full coachings are inaccurate because of this.
Im not ignoring anything. Im just presenting an ICM GTO solution for this spot, and those are the results. Future game scenarios within solvers that are available are directly related to a player being forced to put in blinds, which for the most part impacts EP players in cases where a large percentage of the stack is forced into the pot (eg. UTG with 10bb is forced to put 10% of the stack in the middle next hand by taking a big blind). That will cause slight strategic changes from the EP player, typically by expanding the opening ranges, which will change the responses from the rest of the table. Solvers are just solving for GTO (they can be used for exploiting purposes by changing some solver inputs), so if the solver comes up with an answer, it’s just GTO. In your example, you would make a profitable decision with your hand by calling All the players at the table are fighting for the $EV of dead money in the pot (blinds and antes). Based on your position, your hand strategies combined will give you an overall $EV gain for your strategy. If you start folding profitable hands, your overall strategy will start losing money, meaning someone else will pick that EV up If you have 100bb, I doubt your overall $EV for the next hand will even change in case where you have 90bb. You would just be missing out on a +EV spot, and the future game argument here would very likely be irrelevant in terms of next hand(s) $EV and you would just miss a +EV spot
@bungakat I understand what you are saying. I know that future game allows you to jam wider from utg because you are posting next hand. But in the case I presented, the advantage you have because of covering everyone, coould be seen like if you had a very big edge in the table, the solver is not measuring that. Another way of puting it is asking the question "how much adicional money is it worth being on the table covering everyone, compared to covering no one"? For example imagine everyone has 1bb except, sb which has 10bb and you also have 10bb on the bb, if everyone fols and the sb jams the solver is gonna tell you you should call A2o, but its not accounting for the downside of busting and not being able to win the rest of the bounties. That Hrc solution only accounts for the present, its not considering the future. Maybe I am not explaining myself well, please correct me if I am wrong, you know so much more than me and probably you are right. But I think that solver only considers each hand individually and doesnt consider the future ev you ll have.
@mariodiaz3976 Yes, you are correct that the solver just finds GTO for the present hand. ICM does account for the downside of busting the hand; it’s part of the ICM equation and math. I do think I understand, but I think its too much to try and explain it here more in depth. I will consider making a video about the topic and go in depth how it work, sounds like a fun topic to cover
@@bungakat I agree. Thanks so much for that. I think specially for mystery bounties its pretty important if you think about it, but could also be that the upside is so big that it doesnt really matter. Thanks very much Jargo for considering it.
Hi! I was already following your content and this was the first mystery bounty video I've seen, but today I found these "older" one, in witch the strategys are not as loose as in yours, I dunno if're gonna watch it, but I'd really like if u can tell why the results were so different: th-cam.com/video/mkTUbW250hA/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=SimplifyPoker
Mystery Bounty tournaments blend traditional play with hidden bounties. The key is balancing solid tournament strategy with selective aggression to chase bounties, especially in later stages. Timing and adaptability are essential.
PS is generally so broken unbelievable !!! When they want you to loose you loose your Hand dont Matter example AQ vs KK AK vs AA 55 vs JJ FH mit 3x5 2x4 vs 3x5 2x7 etc. What a big Bullshit every fk Time opponent have better Hands and 0 bad Beat unbelievable!!!
@@AgraisDT yeah sometimes its crazy sometimes its o.k and especially by tounreys normaly Variance gos and gos away the All ins you loose some you win some what o.k/normal is but when i write this off course i was little in anger Mode it comes especially when you loose 4,5 etc. in a row that makes me anger and off course anyone wanna win and earn not loose Money. And yeaj i get some Sun and make also some days break and play 2 pair too offensive maybe
Am I the only one who kinda hates this format? Kind of destroys a game a little bit... The worst is when u go all in before the money and then 4 recreationals call u because they dont know u dont get the bounties before bubble bursts 😅 Fun video tho!
This seems very wrong… there is still a ton of ev in finishing high in the tournament and cashing big regularly. In the last few minutes you said the 80bb stack should go all in even if first raiser covers. You are risking a lot for little, since you are likely very behind the small stack’s jamming range. But you can use that 80bb stack to call off in better spots when players are all in
Nice vid, this format is tough to stream cause everyone gets mad at me for “punting” 😂
hahaha, sounds like a fun streams 😆
I bet if you ran a sim where everyone before you is all in, and you are in the Big Blind with only 1 card, i bet you still get to call 😂😂😂
At 2:27 for eg, im surprised HJ is playing rfi only and no open jams. given how wide they should be getting called, they should be playing more open shoves. we see this in normal pko as well, could you share your thoughts?
I think GTO just finds the best way there to get more chips in the middle where you doing good
@@bungakat Do you mean, that the solver is trying to stack of only after seeing favourable board? Not jamming because no fold equity ? I really dont get that. BTN on the other hand has 20bb but has no opens only jams.
This sounds like my local pub game, and that's not even a bounty tourny 😂
Last live mystery bounty I played I counted 9 ATC spots (on either of the push or fold sides) that people passed. A lot from poker pros, and some even RFI + fold to small stack jam. I even saw a guy covering raise and fold showing an A! 😱
So on one hand the $EV that people leave on the table is absolutely stupid, on the other hand money goes out of the tournament so damn quickly. It also feels pretty bad getting super deep and playing for small prizes.
So not sure if I love or hate the format, at the very least people will catch on at some point and it will definitely become bad.
Yo bungakat, is this the actual solve for mystery bounty tournies? Ie if you are the covering stack, more likely than not you’re putting your stack in to get the bounty almost no matter what, even if it means there’s a high likelihood you will bust since someone else covers you and has a better hand. Or is this just a 1 “solution” based on many that the solver can potentially give. I ask because I think I’ve been following the “correct” strategy recently, and it only works out unless I get super super lucky, where as if I wait for better spots, the bounties come more naturally in addition to laddering up
It would be awesome node locking the oops like if they were way too tight (i think thats the reality in the tables) and if vilains only call 15% or less, how we want to actullay adapt and play! ty my man nice vid!
Probably just AI 100% as you win by fold equity
Them folding give you extra +ev so go allin 200% if you could... But you can't so keep going allin
Thanks for the content, Jargo! :)
Very helpful, thanks!
love ur content nice work
nice video!
What was the average stack size of the whole field in this example? its pretty relavant infromation, im guessing its like 40bb-50bb or something for the stack off ranges to be this wide.
Good point! I believe it was 50bb, but cant remember exactly
The next video should be nodelocked to population tendencies and how we exploit them!
Main notes from this video - 1. Raise any two when we cover stacks and 2. Call any two versus shoves that we cover and 3. Go all in with any 2 versus raises when we cover 😂
I am not a pro but IMO I would adjust this to like top 75% of hands since most people will be way tighter than the model IRL. Probably any2 suited is fine and any Kxo and any semi connected offsuit like T6o. Just a guess though
Does this take in consideration keeping your stack for EV to win the normal prizes?
Yeah, its in ICM and considers payouts. Problem is that the average KO is too high in these examples. If all the big ones go out and small one will be left it would play more normal
Interesting model, but I don't think risk premium is the only metric. Especially later in the tournament when the big bounties are gone AND the payjumps increase it might be more useful to think in terms of bounty power, however early ITM it's clear that the bounties are so much more important than survival.
Yeah, if its kind a small bounties only in final table or when you deep it can get kind a normal
If you cover, all in
Mystery Bounties make look Bungakat drunk 🤣
How much does this model include future game though? If you go allin with 72o, you decrease your chances to win more bounties in the future.
Model doesnt account for future game
It´s hilarious! 🤣
Don't tell them Jargo!!
what were they thinking!?!?!!?
sounds like fun to me :D
I need bounty
That´s crazy!
I just watched both coachings on mystery bounties on bbz and I think you are ignoring something important. The solutions for this mystery bounties dont consider future game. Suppose its a 6 max table and every one has 5bb, except sb has 10bb and you have 100bb, if everyone folds to the sb and he jams, the solver is going to say you should call any two. However why would you call with 23o when you are the only one who covers him and you can wait for a better hand to call him. Please let me know what you think because I think the full coachings are inaccurate because of this.
Im not ignoring anything. Im just presenting an ICM GTO solution for this spot, and those are the results. Future game scenarios within solvers that are available are directly related to a player being forced to put in blinds, which for the most part impacts EP players in cases where a large percentage of the stack is forced into the pot (eg. UTG with 10bb is forced to put 10% of the stack in the middle next hand by taking a big blind). That will cause slight strategic changes from the EP player, typically by expanding the opening ranges, which will change the responses from the rest of the table.
Solvers are just solving for GTO (they can be used for exploiting purposes by changing some solver inputs), so if the solver comes up with an answer, it’s just GTO. In your example, you would make a profitable decision with your hand by calling
All the players at the table are fighting for the $EV of dead money in the pot (blinds and antes). Based on your position, your hand strategies combined will give you an overall $EV gain for your strategy. If you start folding profitable hands, your overall strategy will start losing money, meaning someone else will pick that EV up
If you have 100bb, I doubt your overall $EV for the next hand will even change in case where you have 90bb. You would just be missing out on a +EV spot, and the future game argument here would very likely be irrelevant in terms of next hand(s) $EV and you would just miss a +EV spot
@bungakat I understand what you are saying. I know that future game allows you to jam wider from utg because you are posting next hand.
But in the case I presented, the advantage you have because of covering everyone, coould be seen like if you had a very big edge in the table, the solver is not measuring that.
Another way of puting it is asking the question "how much adicional money is it worth being on the table covering everyone, compared to covering no one"?
For example imagine everyone has 1bb except, sb which has 10bb and you also have 10bb on the bb, if everyone fols and the sb jams the solver is gonna tell you you should call A2o, but its not accounting for the downside of busting and not being able to win the rest of the bounties.
That Hrc solution only accounts for the present, its not considering the future. Maybe I am not explaining myself well, please correct me if I am wrong, you know so much more than me and probably you are right. But I think that solver only considers each hand individually and doesnt consider the future ev you ll have.
@mariodiaz3976 Yes, you are correct that the solver just finds GTO for the present hand. ICM does account for the downside of busting the hand; it’s part of the ICM equation and math. I do think I understand, but I think its too much to try and explain it here more in depth. I will consider making a video about the topic and go in depth how it work, sounds like a fun topic to cover
@@bungakat I agree. Thanks so much for that. I think specially for mystery bounties its pretty important if you think about it, but could also be that the upside is so big that it doesnt really matter. Thanks very much Jargo for considering it.
Great vid! Fun, but not really a great format imo.
Ok, I get it : click call, close your eyes and pray ! Talk about a broken model !
mystery bounties is just poker slots
Yeah but the opportunity cost of not being able to win future bounties. Mystery Bounties are the ICM-buster.
Hi! I was already following your content and this was the first mystery bounty video I've seen, but today I found these "older" one, in witch the strategys are not as loose as in yours, I dunno if're gonna watch it, but I'd really like if u can tell why the results were so different: th-cam.com/video/mkTUbW250hA/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=SimplifyPoker
You are amazing ! Made my day every single time when i wach ya :)
So basically you are saying it’s bingo 🤣🤣🤣
Mystery Bounty tournaments blend traditional play with hidden bounties. The key is balancing solid tournament strategy with selective aggression to chase bounties, especially in later stages. Timing and adaptability are essential.
PS is generally so broken unbelievable !!! When they want you to loose you loose your Hand dont Matter example AQ vs KK AK vs AA 55 vs JJ FH mit 3x5 2x4 vs 3x5 2x7 etc. What a big Bullshit every fk Time opponent have better Hands and 0 bad Beat unbelievable!!!
You just wasted a lot of energy dude! Haha! Go out, get some sun!
@@AgraisDT yeah sometimes its crazy sometimes its o.k and especially by tounreys normaly Variance gos and gos away the All ins you loose some you win some what o.k/normal is but when i write this off course i was little in anger Mode it comes especially when you loose 4,5 etc. in a row that makes me anger and off course anyone wanna win and earn not loose Money. And yeaj i get some Sun and make also some days break and play 2 pair too offensive maybe
@@AgraisDT and btw i had cbd that takes my anger a little down ;-) but not so by that crazy times
hate mystery KO's but LLLLOVE jarGoat ty 🙏
Am I the only one who kinda hates this format? Kind of destroys a game a little bit...
The worst is when u go all in before the money and then 4 recreationals call u because they dont know u dont get the bounties before bubble bursts 😅
Fun video tho!
Hopefully poker sites will change it up a bit. I think the format idea is great
This seems very wrong… there is still a ton of ev in finishing high in the tournament and cashing big regularly. In the last few minutes you said the 80bb stack should go all in even if first raiser covers. You are risking a lot for little, since you are likely very behind the small stack’s jamming range. But you can use that 80bb stack to call off in better spots when players are all in