I discovered your channel via this video - case studies are truly invaluable! I'm eagerly anticipating more insightful content from you in the future. The path to wealth creation lies in the discipline of consistent financial planning, such as diligently allocating funds at regular intervals for astute investment opportunities.
Absolutely spot on! Diversification is key. It's all about spreading those investments across various asset classes - bonds, real estate, stocks from global markets. That way, you're lowering the risk factor in case one sector takes a hit.
Sounds like a solid strategy! Over the last couple of years, I've been grinding alongside a finance whiz, and we've crafted a six-figure mixed bag of stocks. Now, I'm gunning to broaden the horizons even further this year.
When it comes to financial market wizards, anyone you've got in mind for recommendations? I've got around 100k ready to dip my toes in, especially with those big cap stocks on sale right now.
My CFA Lina Dineikiene is a total legend in her game. Definitely worth digging deeper into her background. With all that experience under her belt, she's a goldmine for anyone trying to navigate the financial jungle.
That's awesome! Googling her was a smart move. Her credentials are impressive, right? Reaching out for help is key, and scheduling that call is a solid step towards leveling up your game.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds to take advantage of the current market. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but not sure how to start
@@Greenho08 Remember that investing in the stock market carries risks, and it's important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions especially this period
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds.
@@Lambert97 Great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
@@Jørgensen79 Kevin S Mikan is my FA. Just google the name and you'd find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
@@Jørgensen79 Kevin S Mikan is my FA. Just google the name and you'd find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Even though you explained how to find those ranges, please do still show them on your weekend videos, because not everybody trades options or have options trading platform! I don't, so i rely on your videos, and those have been extremely helpful! 🙏 if you show the exact number i can then plot it on my chart, thanks so much!
The really important bit is at the end. Expected move trading SHOULD NEVER BE USED to time tops or bottoms unless you want to get crushed by the trend.
I also use the product depth tab on TOS to look for the current weeks open interest on the puts and calls to determine where the largest walls of contracts are, that behaves very similar to the risk range. Great stuff!
The expected move range is a statistically based way to look at probabilities, it is not '"hopium" based on fear, greed, or general craziness that seizes some traders. I always look at this. I switched to TOS because I like numbers-based rational predictions. Remember, it can go up or down this much. You still have to figure out direction, sometimes easier said than done. Look at put/call ratios, if you see mostly puts, traders are guessing a downward direction. It is up to you to agree or be a contrarian.
I played around with the numbers one day and I think I realized if you add the 2 closest ask prices for calls and puts and divide that number by 2. You normally get a number .3 or so off from what the Think or Swim platform shows.
Mike, thanks for this great content. It will be awesome if you can include the EM for the big guns like Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Google in your weekly recap!
Great!! This helps us cleave our understanding of the VIX from that of implied volatility. Turns out these aren't based on the same thing. The VIX is based on the S&P futures (1st & 2nd contract months) and their degree of contango (or sometimes backwardation). Thanks!!
Mike, I hake a quick question as to what video it was where you mentioned and I believe showed how to get the monthly risk range. Could you possibly mention which one it was? I know the weekly was presented in --- How To Predict How Far Stocks Can Go In Any Given Time | Risk Range Tutorial, which was a great video. Thank you.
Super helpful thanks Mike. Maybe just a coincidence but I asked this question in your video yesterday and you posted this video today 😅 what are the chances haha
4:24 simple way to do it is by going to the at the money strike. so it's at 452.69 so we're just going to be 453 and what i do is i would just add the ask of what it's currently selling at, the call and add it to what the put is currently going for too. which is on the ask. it'd be 3.84 plus 4.30 add that together it gives us 8 dollars and 14 cents. so as you can see that would be our plus or minus. so after i get that information i just go to the chart and i draw the lines out manually
I owe a lot to you for teaching this one, when I first started watching your channel and you mentioned this, I started looking to where I could find this information and incorporating it into my trading plan. It's awesome, almost like predicting the future 😎
With this logic though, any product that you apply this to would have the highest likelihood of staying flat & not going up or down. & how often does that happen? 🤔
This was as great video, thank you ! This is great to set the price range for the week. Is there a way to see the price range for each day ? I'm using think or swim.
Ok I see that a product with a daily option expiration. I was wanting to use this to look at Tqqq and Sqqq but they are based off QQQ so I can look at the daily on those. Since QQQ trades 24/5 at what time of the day would it be best to look at the option prices ?
I tried this last week and just checked the results. I'm amazed! I want to do it again this week but didn't check on Friday. Is there any way to find this week's weekly implied volatility?
It's a good way to time daily put scalps at the beginning on the following week, if the expected move played out on a friday, the following monday almost always has a retracement.
I have a question, how does this implied volatility levels have any strength when the implied volatility plus or minus is relative to the current stock price? So today if the stock is at 100 and plus or minus is 15. The range is 85-115. But next week the stock might be at 160 and plus or minus is now 12 so the range is now 148-172. So like how do we know which levels to trade from? On the option chain is the implied volatility based off of market open price for that expiration date? So IV may change but the reference price is static? Bc if it’s based off ofc hanging price action it’s difficult to trade levels when the levels are changing
Hi Mike, could you share the source you pull the values for your risk range Excel table from? I guess you are not updating all of them manually. Would be highly appreciated. Also thank you for the great content you deliver regularly.
Question on the last 20 seconds of your video... dynamic hedging may produce explosive moves in which direction exactly? Are you saying that defending those levels at the top means massive selling? Or does it mean massive covering and thus a higher move? Thoughts?
That's where understanding option order flow and dealer positioning becomes critical. You need to see gamma exposure and whether dealers' will re-hedge or simply switch to the winning side so to speak. Expected move trading is mean regression trading. If you want to blow up your account this is the best way to do it. Trend-following trading is far safer. Never use expected move to time a top or a bottom unless you understand dealer positioning and how they will react to increased gamma exposure.
Michael , can you do the same with future contracts? such as /ES /NQ /YM? I do not see any implied volatility for these tickers? Please let us know. Thank you!
Thank you sir. Question. Does the same method apply to figure out the expected move for intradays? The closing price of that day+ that same weeks expiration +/- move?
@@arthurkorff honestly all I know is theta burn happens 2 weeks out. On the final week of exp theta is kickin ass. Haha don’t play zero days unless it’s a quicky. I usually get 2 weeks + out and will play spy odte when I see a great set up like today 🙌
Do I? Lol, I am not a statistician. I don’t really have a specific area of training/formal education. I’ve worked in corporate America for a fortune 20 company for me entire adult life. The majority of my career involved looking at past data to forecast trends and create new strategies to reach them
That really comes down to what chart I am trading off of and what previous price action has done in that area. So if it comes out of the range, but two weeks ago on the chart I see a clear area of resistance or support outside of the range, I wouldn't mind holding it until the level is broken as long as it makes sense from a risk to reward perspective
@@FiguringOutMoney hmm, understood, thanks for your response. 👍 Trading options becomes a problem when the resistance and support breaks fast, since option price loses value far too quickly.😔
Tastyworks also calculates the range for you with thin dashes line for 1 standard deviation move, and the wider dashes line further out for 2 standard deviation move. Very helpful for those who sell options.
you can still use it as a range because the range is always moving. However, I like to look at the weekly range to get a good idea for the following week. If you are mid week, like we are when i posted this. The TOS platform has a "thinkback" tab, to see what the range was on previous dates. There might even be an options website that can do this as well.
@@indianajones3315 didn't even see this, came to see if anyone's mentioned spy, just noticed spy has 'dailies' on top of weekly options, thanks for this! now when you say both, you mean add monday wens and friday or just the last 2? Spy has monday to tues- then wed to thurs and there's a friday. Thanks in advance, sorry took a while to reply, youtube spammmed your notice downwards
@@FiguringOutMoney right, yeah I use a great custom standard dev script on TOS, I like seeing how it’s calculated from the chain though , good stuff thanks.
One of my favorite tools to use!
🟢 TRADE IDEAS & WATCHLIST: www.patreon.com/figuringoutmoney
Mike thank you so much your the absolute best
Is it possible to use the options market to find the 2nd and 3rd st deviations? Or does the options market only give the 1st standard deviation?
I discovered your channel via this video - case studies are truly invaluable! I'm eagerly anticipating more insightful content from you in the future. The path to wealth creation lies in the discipline of consistent financial planning, such as diligently allocating funds at regular intervals for astute investment opportunities.
Absolutely spot on! Diversification is key. It's all about spreading those investments across various asset classes - bonds, real estate, stocks from global markets. That way, you're lowering the risk factor in case one sector takes a hit.
Sounds like a solid strategy! Over the last couple of years, I've been grinding alongside a finance whiz, and we've crafted a six-figure mixed bag of stocks. Now, I'm gunning to broaden the horizons even further this year.
When it comes to financial market wizards, anyone you've got in mind for recommendations? I've got around 100k ready to dip my toes in, especially with those big cap stocks on sale right now.
My CFA Lina Dineikiene is a total legend in her game. Definitely worth digging deeper into her background. With all that experience under her belt, she's a goldmine for anyone trying to navigate the financial jungle.
That's awesome! Googling her was a smart move. Her credentials are impressive, right? Reaching out for help is key, and scheduling that call is a solid step towards leveling up your game.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds to take advantage of the current market. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but not sure how to start
@@Greenho08 Remember that investing in the stock market carries risks, and it's important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions especially this period
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds.
@@Lambert97 Great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
@@Jørgensen79 Kevin S Mikan is my FA. Just google the name and you'd find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
@@Jørgensen79 Kevin S Mikan is my FA. Just google the name and you'd find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Probably one of the best videos I've seen on this topic. Keep them coming Mr. Silva.
Even though you explained how to find those ranges, please do still show them on your weekend videos, because not everybody trades options or have options trading platform! I don't, so i rely on your videos, and those have been extremely helpful! 🙏 if you show the exact number i can then plot it on my chart, thanks so much!
will do!
Get this man over 100k subs! Almost there!!
🤗😎
The really important bit is at the end. Expected move trading SHOULD NEVER BE USED to time tops or bottoms unless you want to get crushed by the trend.
I also use the product depth tab on TOS to look for the current weeks open interest on the puts and calls to determine where the largest walls of contracts are, that behaves very similar to the risk range. Great stuff!
Great insight!
The expected move range is a statistically based way to look at probabilities, it is not '"hopium" based on fear, greed, or general craziness that seizes some traders. I always look at this. I switched to TOS because I like numbers-based rational predictions. Remember, it can go up or down this much. You still have to figure out direction, sometimes easier said than done. Look at put/call ratios, if you see mostly puts, traders are guessing a downward direction. It is up to you to agree or be a contrarian.
I played around with the numbers one day and I think I realized if you add the 2 closest ask prices for calls and puts and divide that number by 2. You normally get a number .3 or so off from what the Think or Swim platform shows.
I alway appreciate you providing the ranges. You rock!
Thanks slevin!
Always wondered how you come up with those numbers. Thank you. Great tutorial!
Two thumbs up 👍👍Good stuff, verifiable by your own due diligence. Video & Host recommended friend's and family. ✌😎
I like that cool trick of adding the ATM call and put price to approx. the expected move. Thanks for that tip.
Mike, thanks for this great content. It will be awesome if you can include the EM for the big guns like Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Google in your weekly recap!
Great!! This helps us cleave our understanding of the VIX from that of implied volatility. Turns out these aren't based on the same thing. The VIX is based on the S&P futures (1st & 2nd contract months) and their degree of contango (or sometimes backwardation). Thanks!!
Wow, what a smart tactic. This channel is way underrated.
Mike, I hake a quick question as to what video it was where you mentioned and I believe showed how to get the monthly risk range. Could you possibly mention which one it was? I know the weekly was presented in --- How To Predict How Far Stocks Can Go In Any Given Time | Risk Range Tutorial, which was a great video. Thank you.
I love videos like this. Didn't know how to go back in time and get these levels. Perfect!
Awesome vid, does anyone know if there is a script for this in Tradingview
Super helpful thanks Mike. Maybe just a coincidence but I asked this question in your video yesterday and you posted this video today 😅 what are the chances haha
+/-68%
that was clever paul
4:24 simple way to do it is by going to the at the money strike. so it's at 452.69 so we're just going to be 453 and what i do is i would just add the ask of what it's currently selling at, the call and add it to what the put is currently going for too. which is on the ask. it'd be 3.84 plus 4.30 add that together it gives us 8 dollars and 14 cents. so as you can see that would be our plus or minus. so after i get that information i just go to the chart and i draw the lines out manually
I was asking in your videos how to do this but you never answered. Hah glad I found this video that you made a while back.
This is brilliant. I use think or swim, but where is the option activity?
Broooooooo... This info is goldddddddd...OMG.
. Thank you so muchhhhhh. THIS IS WHAT I WAS LOOKONG FOR..WOW
Woop woop :)
I love learning new ways to trade options with more confidence. Thank you!!!
I can't believe valuable info like this is available lol THANK YOU!!
Thanks a lot for this valuable information. On my platform there are IV30, IV60, and IV90. Which one and how do I need to use? Thank you.
Once again phenomenal work sir 🍾
Thanks for the excellent video. Does this method work for next 1 day range also?
I owe a lot to you for teaching this one, when I first started watching your channel and you mentioned this, I started looking to where I could find this information and incorporating it into my trading plan. It's awesome, almost like predicting the future 😎
The mythical “bell shape” of Mr. GAUSS 🤓👌🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Thank you. A great video. Though I will need to rewatch it on a large screen to be able to see your screen :)
Excellent! Thanks in advance for the millions of dollars I'll be making in the future using this tool.
Thanks for the info very helpful, can this same formula be used to predict daily movement, for day trading?
This was very helpful information about market movement and options pricing. Thank you Mike!
With this logic though, any product that you apply this to would have the highest likelihood of staying flat & not going up or down. & how often does that happen? 🤔
This was as great video, thank you ! This is great to set the price range for the week. Is there a way to see the price range for each day ? I'm using think or swim.
Ok I see that a product with a daily option expiration. I was wanting to use this to look at Tqqq and Sqqq but they are based off QQQ so I can look at the daily on those. Since QQQ trades 24/5 at what time of the day would it be best to look at the option prices ?
How long after the 4PM EST close would you look on TOS for these levels, and does that matter?
Wow, that was outstanding yet simple. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks! Clearly laid out analysis of a helpful tool.
I tried this last week and just checked the results. I'm amazed!
I want to do it again this week but didn't check on Friday. Is there any way to find this week's weekly implied volatility?
You can use thinkback in TOS.
@@FiguringOutMoney Thanks for the response. I'll have to figure out why I can't see it using "thinkback".
It's a good way to time daily put scalps at the beginning on the following week, if the expected move played out on a friday, the following monday almost always has a retracement.
I'm glad I found this channel
Great video . I wonder if I can access think or swim in canada
There is also a StdDev indicator, wouldnt it achieve the same effect to just go to the weekly chart then apply the indicator too?
I have a question, how does this implied volatility levels have any strength when the implied volatility plus or minus is relative to the current stock price? So today if the stock is at 100 and plus or minus is 15. The range is 85-115. But next week the stock might be at 160 and plus or minus is now 12 so the range is now 148-172. So like how do we know which levels to trade from?
On the option chain is the implied volatility based off of market open price for that expiration date? So IV may change but the reference price is static? Bc if it’s based off ofc hanging price action it’s difficult to trade levels when the levels are changing
It's because of expiration, and opt-ex cycles. think of it as a way that price resets weekly, and depending on IMP, those chains adjust as price does.
Would using SD be better?
Thank you thank you thank you!! 👍🏼👍🏼always appreciate your videos and education
Hi Mike, could you share the source you pull the values for your risk range Excel table from? I guess you are not updating all of them manually. Would be highly appreciated. Also thank you for the great content you deliver regularly.
Hey there. I pull my expected moves all manually.
@@FiguringOutMoney thanks for the quick reply. That's some effort your spending there
YOU are awesome!!! Thank you so much for showing us how to do this! 🙏❤
Thank you for making this video. This information is treasure
Sink Swim charting has one call Standard Deviation 1 and 2, they are similar, right?
Question on the last 20 seconds of your video... dynamic hedging may produce explosive moves in which direction exactly? Are you saying that defending those levels at the top means massive selling? Or does it mean massive covering and thus a higher move? Thoughts?
That's where understanding option order flow and dealer positioning becomes critical. You need to see gamma exposure and whether dealers' will re-hedge or simply switch to the winning side so to speak. Expected move trading is mean regression trading. If you want to blow up your account this is the best way to do it. Trend-following trading is far safer. Never use expected move to time a top or a bottom unless you understand dealer positioning and how they will react to increased gamma exposure.
You are the best! THE BEST. Thank you
Where did the 5 come from?
definitely a must watch
Good information!
Michael , can you do the same with future contracts? such as /ES /NQ /YM? I do not see any implied volatility for these tickers? Please let us know. Thank you!
Yes you can! TOS has the expected moves in the same place. Or you can do it manually by adding up the ATM calls and puts
Instead of finding a weekly range, how would one use this same process to find daily range movements?
Need a product with daily option Expiration
Fantastic info. Thank you.
This is money!!! Thank you
Very smart. Thank you.
Does anyone know if Schwab has this ?
Thank you sir. Question. Does the same method apply to figure out the expected move for intradays? The closing price of that day+ that same weeks expiration +/- move?
options decay over time. hope that helps.
@@arthurkorff this absolutely works haha I just gotta make sure I get enough time out. If options didn’t have theta man it would be awesome haha
@@sessionsinparadise7357 tbh I don't know how to apply theta. I just know it's a thing. Trade wisely
@@arthurkorff honestly all I know is theta burn happens 2 weeks out. On the final week of exp theta is kickin ass. Haha don’t play zero days unless it’s a quicky. I usually get 2 weeks + out and will play spy odte when I see a great set up like today 🙌
Hey Michael, What's your area of training? Coming from a statistician, you speak statistician language quite often ha.
Do I? Lol, I am not a statistician. I don’t really have a specific area of training/formal education. I’ve worked in corporate America for a fortune 20 company for me entire adult life. The majority of my career involved looking at past data to forecast trends and create new strategies to reach them
Can we get a scripts for this in TOS ?
Listen 👂 carefully to the best of the best
😊 The Q Man!
Excellent Michael. Thanks
Thank you!!
Thank you so much
thanks for the info as always very appreciate
My Man, thanks for the info!
Great video, thank you.
Thank you for taking the time to explain this!
Very welcome! Thanks for the support
How long do you allow the trade to be outside the expected region?
That really comes down to what chart I am trading off of and what previous price action has done in that area. So if it comes out of the range, but two weeks ago on the chart I see a clear area of resistance or support outside of the range, I wouldn't mind holding it until the level is broken as long as it makes sense from a risk to reward perspective
@@FiguringOutMoney hmm, understood, thanks for your response. 👍 Trading options becomes a problem when the resistance and support breaks fast, since option price loses value far too quickly.😔
Great stuff MIke
thank you very much
Brilliant thanks 😊
Tastyworks also calculates the range for you with thin dashes line for 1 standard deviation move, and the wider dashes line further out for 2 standard deviation move. Very helpful for those who sell options.
Thanks for letting us know!
Great - thanks!
Thank you!
😊
I have been wondering this for so long. Thank you so much.
What if more people than ever know about Put options and have opened named puts...thus the biggest bear market squeeze rally since 1932...?
Puts being closed don’t drive rallies, short sellers buying back shares does.
Thank. You!
Solid advice
That was perfect!
Ty!!!!
Value, as always!
amazin
Thanks for the daily update Michael 👍
Thank you so much for sharing that and doing a great job explaining it!
what if you're mid week like now, can this still be used to make a indicator "risk ranges"
If an asset has Wed opex (SPY, QQQ), you could do the calculation using both Wed to Wed and Fri to Fri.
you can still use it as a range because the range is always moving. However, I like to look at the weekly range to get a good idea for the following week. If you are mid week, like we are when i posted this. The TOS platform has a "thinkback" tab, to see what the range was on previous dates. There might even be an options website that can do this as well.
@@indianajones3315 didn't even see this, came to see if anyone's mentioned spy, just noticed spy has 'dailies' on top of weekly options, thanks for this! now when you say both, you mean add monday wens and friday or just the last 2? Spy has monday to tues- then wed to thurs and there's a friday. Thanks in advance, sorry took a while to reply, youtube spammmed your notice downwards
Thanks 🙏 for sharing Mike
Welcome:)
can't you just use a standard deviation script
I personally do it manually at EOD Friday. But there are scripts out there you can download
@@FiguringOutMoney right, yeah I use a great custom standard dev script on TOS, I like seeing how it’s calculated from the chain though , good stuff thanks.
Wow! Thank you so much ! Appreciate this insight!! You’re the man!
first to comment
Nobody can predict. And next leg is down because millions traders like you belive in up trend. My take profit 4100
zo who??????
thank you so much for this knowledge. greatly appreciated.
5 seconds in and he used the word 'predict' huge red flag for get rich quick schemers
Your new here haha
@@GustavAdolfDenStore your just an amateur
🤗🙏👍