I think it’s a sign of resilience in the housing market. Sure, higher interest rates make mortgages more expensive, but the thing is, there’s still a lot of demand for homes. A lot of people are looking to buy, especially since there’s a shortage of inventory
Even though interest rates have risen, there’s still a limited supply of homes. Plus, even in times of uncertainty, real estate has always been seen as a solid investment. People still need places to live, and those with good financial standing are willing to pay a premium to secure homes in desirable areas.
higher rates do push some buyers out of the market, but what’s happening is that the people who are still in the market tend to be more financially secure. They’re either able to pay more upfront, or they’re willing to adjust their expectations and buy within their means.
Unemployment up, weekly unemployment applications down. Housing demand down, interest rates down, inventory up = prices continue to increase. This data is absolutely reliable and above board.
Thanks Mike, I feel like this is the only channel I can get a real data driven and experience based perspective on the real estate market in the us, with as little bias thrown in as possible
Given the ongoing global economic challenges, it's crucial for everyone to diversify their income sources, especially those not dependent on government support. Now is an ideal time to explore investments in assets like gold, silver, and digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir for her outstanding proficiency and guidance in these fields.
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
Best thing that happened to me last year that I can attest to is the progress I have made so far on trades. Venturing into crypto was my best decision ever I know more is yet to come 2024
@@GregoryColaThere's a huge amount of pent up supply trapped by absurd interest rate policy. The only way it'll be unleashed is with a prolonged recession, but history says that is the exact sequence of events.
I've had to completely reverse my thinking in this market. It's so unique. Rates up = lower for-sale supply, higher prices. Rates down = higher for-sale supply, lower prices (but still TBD). If prices don't trend down, we will be in a situation where there is little to no change in buyer demand - with 5 to 6+ months of supply nationally. There is always someone that "needs" to sell. This will establish new pricing.
You continue to rely on lagging indicators to forecast the real estate market, and it’s a fundamental error. Weekly median home price updates offer no real edge. They’re reflective of past conditions, not forward-looking market dynamics. If you want to understand where the housing market is heading, you need to focus on leading indicators like new home sales prices, housing permits, and construction spending. And, more importantly, you need to pay attention to the rate of change in these indicators, which is clearly trending down. But you won’t see that in your lagging indicators like the ‘median home price.’ And here's the real issue-you don’t even understand why the median home price is rising. Is it due to increased demand, or is it because fewer lower-priced homes are being sold while higher-priced properties dominate the market? This is a classic example of misinterpreting data. When transaction volumes are low, but median prices rise, it doesn’t indicate strength in the market-it indicates that only higher-end properties are being sold. The lower-priced homes are not moving. This skewed data gives a false impression of market strength. It’s not that ‘all homes are selling for more’-it’s that the few homes that are selling are skewing the median upward. This creates the illusion of rising prices, but it’s driven by a lack of volume at the lower end. So, you have low transaction activity, yet the median price continues to climb, and you misinterpret that as overall market strength. This is nothing more than chart manipulation-the data is misleading because it fails to account for the composition of the sales. The reality is that the forward-looking indicators are pointing down, and you're blind to it because you're fixated on metrics that only show you what has already happened. This reliance on lagging data is why so many analysts miss the turn in the market. You are chasing shadows of the past rather than understanding the direction the market is truly heading
Mike, comparing absolute dollar prices YoY doesn't tell the full story in my opinion. If higher priced homes are selling compared to last year, it makes it look like prices are increasing. I think a more valuable metric would be comparing price per foot.
@@GregoryCola I have been using box plots, they are really helpful for showing the movement of the upper and lower quartiles relative to the median and average sold price. Price per foot doesn't account for home quality. Plenty of fixer uppers out there selling for less.
You're describing what one economist calls the "mix-shift" phenomenon and that absolutely has been hiding price declines in many cities for as much as a year and a half now.
@@nitroneonicman Agree, home quality is another issue not taken into account when using dollar value or price/ft. Ideally the same home trades every year! I know Zillow is far from perfect but at least they "try" to keep track of FMV of each home.
sellers have been expecting rate cuts to keep afloat their home's value. now that the cutting cycle has begun, we're seeing even more inventory piling up on the market. that will remain the case until they lower their prices.
Nope. People are waiting because the fed pivoted and they know rates are in a track to go lower over the next year. They’re waiting it out until it’s in the low 5’s. Then the floodgates open
I live in Silicon Valley. I can't believe how many multi-million dollar homes are on the market right now. Is there enough buyer demand for numerous $4mm homes on the market? Likely not - which means your home really isn't worth $4mm. Buyers can be very selective right now.
This data is completely misleading. I wonder when one of these TH-camrs will start sharing real numbers, instead of skewed figures that measure median home prices while including million-dollar properties in the mix.
It seems pretty obvious to me. There are a bunch of Pandemic buyers trying to sell what they overpaid for without a loss, and realtors are clawing at keeping prices as high as possible. There isn't a strict timeline, but there is a process, and the timeline will obey the process in due time.
I completely agree with you on the pandemic people trying to resell their homes. I’ve noticed a lot of homes going back on the market that were bought from 2020 to 2022. Plus,they are increasing their sell price of the homes with next to no upgrades..
@@theernalrealestategroupatk707 The principle is that money becomes less valuable if more of it is created. Real Estate prices have increased in rough proportion to the money supply. Stated differently, real estate prices haven’t really gone up, but rather, the currency has weakened. Another way to illustrate this observation is to measure prices in ounces of gold.
Austin, TX is the cautionary tale of what could happen in a market if supply increases and buyer demand isn't there. Look at Austin/ Zillow - how does a buyer select a home when there are a bunch for sale (with no product differentiation) within a few block radius? Unconstrained markets like TX, AZ and FL where you can build at will are tough places to be. I know people will hate on East/West Coasts but there is a reason why they are holding up better.
Thank you, Mike. Can you answer me the riddle of Texas sale price obfuscation, and how you get TX sales data? Is it an aggregate figure or do you get individual contract data? We have always checked the box not to disclose our purchase price on Texas real estate, and as far as I understand not even the property tax office gets the actual sales price. As I understand it, appraisers do have the actual closing price data, but realtors do not. When you look on consumer sites like zillow you virtually never see a Texas prior sale price, only the list price or zestimate. Thanks for all the info!
I think that is just a visual thing where the price is hidden from the public but check out the County GIS data it might be public also Zillow tends to not hide sales prices, but I am on the west coast so maybe texas is different?
@@malanalan1 exactly - we don't establish a market value. Some kind of tx privacy law where sale price is private if you elect. I don't think it's a municipal thing . It creates a situation where large scale buyers would be incentivizeed to bribe the appraiser for the secret data. Buyers only have asking prices and guestimating based on how long it sits on market.
In Southern California I am unequivocally seeing some sellers throw in the towel and take the "low ball" offers (still outrageously high offers but "low" compared to the May 2022 peak). But there also many, many holdouts with fantasy asking prices that are just collecting dust. There is also a huge difference now between the prices of what's available (the green boxes on Redfin) and what was recently sold (the blue boxes on Redfin). It's all super fishy and misleading if you don't know how to study trends at the neighborhood/subdivision level. Take a look at Buena Park for example. If all you look at is active inventory, you would swear most neighborhoods are low to mid 900 neighborhoods...but the closed sales in the last few months appear to be mostly in the 8's and quite a few in the high 7's.
I don’t know much at all about any area in California, but if it’s a similar lot size, square feet of living area, same beds and baths, and in the same neighborhood/development the homes would be worth what the most recent closed sales were (especially if sold in the last six months) give or take some value for upgrades.
@@ebutuoy5088 Not at all been here for almost 50 years I'm just using it as a very curious metric. It seemed impervious to price drops for a long time but it seems like it's happening in earnest now.
@@CaptainCaveman1170I’m from SoCal prices here haven’t dropped here yet. I still expect a 3% drop due to seasonality. Next year starting February prices will shoot back up again.
@@House_hacker_619 San Diego does appear to be holding up better than LA, the IE and Bakersfield. Victorville/Hesperia are taking it on the chin by my own analysis.
It isn't ticket science: extremely low base of buyers, same until recently with sellers. The ship is clearly turning, it simply takes longer under these unusual circumstances. Condos in FL are the first leg down. BTW your thesis in "dropping rates equals dropping inventory" is the first shoe to drop...
Prices are absolutely going down anywhere below a line drawn from Los Angeles to say Nashville or Raleigh. Above that, I don't know and I don't care really because the frenetic activity is always focused more on the south. No one is being ruined if their Ohio house goes from $180k to $140k but if your San Antonio house goes from $500k to $300k (as it very well could imo) now that could be a big problem.
Prices will not falluntil the m2 money supply reduces or a huge decrease in the population. The m2 money supply is at 21 trillion dollars and climbing. The Fed balance sheet is at 7.1 trillion dollars. There is yoir teason why prices are not falling. To much money chasing to few assets.
@@xianx1866 you sure about that? Personally I don't find it very comforting to pay more taxes on a house that I'd likely be unable to sell at the price it's being appraised at. Anyone who bought properties as rentals using leverage is definitely sweating right now too. Luckily I bought my rental properties ten years ago.
@@House_hacker_619 you can gaslight me all you want, the numbers don't lie. There is a zero percent chance that you're renting out a property you bought in August 2022 in California for more than your mortgage on it sorry
People are sick of moving and grass is greener thinking. Many Cali folks want to move back to Cali after a couple hot and humid summers in South Texas. Getting your money back is impossible, so if you cannot stomach a loss, you stay. The idiot lawsuit that hurt buyers and buyers agents along with interest rates comparative to the last decade or so, will prohibit folks from risking a move. The grasshopper era may be winding down. So glad I stayed put, with my 2% mortgage. I could have sold triple what I paid, but a low mortgage with a modest roof overhead is more valuable than cash right now.
@@seanm3226 Evidence? LOL why would they want to stay in TX or MT after a couple years? LOL perfect weather in socal and their soul is still there.....Personally I know 5 couples that are trying to figure out how to move back......stupid azz question by you.
Supply and demand equilibrium If you remove the 2007-2011 period from the data pool since 1942, we have only had one year in history when nominal prices fell, and that was only 1%, too. The history of big national price crashes has distress sellers in mass with duration. I urge people to read the data. Once you do, 2022, 2023, and 2024 make more sense.
Home prices crashing is rare but that is because rapid home price appreciation is also rare... there are entire decades where home prices hardly moved... If a home sold in 1989 for $104,000 and then is sold for $108,000 in 1999 the odds of that home crashing by 20 or 40% in 2000 or 2001 is basically zero.. home price stability creates home price stability... but when homes appreciate 8, 10 or even 20% YoY for several years there is way more exposure to a major price correction.
@@jonathantaylor6926don’t even bring up the current unemployment, inflation and interest rate. The 80’s had 18-21 interest rate, UNEMPLOYMENT at 11% in 1981 and inflation at 8.5%😂.
@@LoganMohtashamiwe’re opposite from the last GFC except for the price and higher unemployment during GFC. Rent was cheap and I don’t remember we had inflation. We were oversupply from foreclosures, new build and short sale. It’s the opposite now.
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I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $100k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
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Please report on percent of list price received. Anecdotally, it’s rare that I see a home close for 100% of list price in my buy box. Often they close for significantly less.
Crashes happen when there are mass foreclosures. They happen when people lose their jobs ie recessions or Black swan events. Small corrections happen when supply outpaces demand which is what we have had over the last two years. The “crash” is already over. Save your money and buy before the next big move up is my opinion. Sidenote: don’t be fooled by percentages. Inventory is up but not historically high by any means. Saying listings are up by 37 percent sounds big but it’s not a big deal in real numbers. Waiting until the market turns back to multiple cash offers 50k over asking is the worst possible strategy in this market
The long end of the Treasury bond market is up, meaning mortgage rates are not coming down. The FED cut was fully priced in already. It's actually looking like mortgage rates will being going up slightly.,
@@jonathantaylor6926rate will come down due to the spread collapsing. The spread is at the high end. Once the risk on inflation is clearly over the spread should collapse to 1.5. That is an entire point just in the spread.
It's a scam cycle but a cycle none the less... there really should not be any "boom and bust"... yeah maybe some minor ebbs and flows of the economy but the reason we get these extreme highs and then extreme lows is because of the FED meddling with interest rates.
@@jonathantaylor6926 The big boys make money on the way up, sell it all to mom and pop at the peak, let it burn and then buy it all up for cheap after the bust. That's why the boom bust cycle will never be eliminated, even though it could be just with sensible/proactive interest rate policy and responsibly enforced lending standards/regulations. As a conservative I'm not for over regulation, but what we have now is complete bankster-serving trash.
@@hankduncan2665I am not sure how many people outside of those that benefit from sales expected 6.5 to bring people rushing in. Next year rates will get to an attractive level.
I think it’s a sign of resilience in the housing market. Sure, higher interest rates make mortgages more expensive, but the thing is, there’s still a lot of demand for homes. A lot of people are looking to buy, especially since there’s a shortage of inventory
Fewer homes are being built, and current homeowners aren't as willing to sell because they locked in lower rates. So, prices are staying up
Even though interest rates have risen, there’s still a limited supply of homes. Plus, even in times of uncertainty, real estate has always been seen as a solid investment. People still need places to live, and those with good financial standing are willing to pay a premium to secure homes in desirable areas.
Prices may have stabilized, but they’re not crashing because, fundamentally, there’s still strong demand. It's more of a rebalancing than a drop-off
But with mortgage rates so high, wouldn’t that make homes unaffordable for most people?
higher rates do push some buyers out of the market, but what’s happening is that the people who are still in the market tend to be more financially secure. They’re either able to pay more upfront, or they’re willing to adjust their expectations and buy within their means.
Even modern technology doesn't know what to make of that hair 😂
brutal
😂
You should become a comedian
Best TH-cam comment I’ve ever seen
@@Myhands14 Thanks 👍
Love your analysis of the data without the hype or rants. Thanks, Mike, for keeping it professional!
Unemployment up, weekly unemployment applications down.
Housing demand down, interest rates down, inventory up = prices continue to increase.
This data is absolutely reliable and above board.
It's truly bizarro world right now (if you believe any of the official data, which is getting harder and harder to do).
lol what the eff are you talking about.
@@NoOne-h7o He's being sarcastic
@@CaptainCaveman1170 thank god, I can't tell anymore
Thanks Mike, I feel like this is the only channel I can get a real data driven and experience based perspective on the real estate market in the us, with as little bias thrown in as possible
Given the ongoing global economic challenges, it's crucial for everyone to diversify their income sources, especially those not dependent on government support. Now is an ideal time to explore investments in assets like gold, silver, and digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. Thanks to Loraine Souvenir for her outstanding proficiency and guidance in these fields.
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
Best thing that happened to me last year that I can attest to is the progress I have made so far on trades. Venturing into crypto was my best decision ever I know more is yet to come 2024
Home prices aren't rising. The value of your dollars is falling.
You, literally 10 days ago- “we’re in an inventory plateau, and inventory will begin receding for the year!”
Rates down = supply up. People have been waiting to list their homes in anticipation of lower rates. Doesn't mean demand will follow though!
@@GregoryColaThere's a huge amount of pent up supply trapped by absurd interest rate policy. The only way it'll be unleashed is with a prolonged recession, but history says that is the exact sequence of events.
I've had to completely reverse my thinking in this market. It's so unique. Rates up = lower for-sale supply, higher prices. Rates down = higher for-sale supply, lower prices (but still TBD). If prices don't trend down, we will be in a situation where there is little to no change in buyer demand - with 5 to 6+ months of supply nationally. There is always someone that "needs" to sell. This will establish new pricing.
You continue to rely on lagging indicators to forecast the real estate market, and it’s a fundamental error. Weekly median home price updates offer no real edge. They’re reflective of past conditions, not forward-looking market dynamics. If you want to understand where the housing market is heading, you need to focus on leading indicators like new home sales prices, housing permits, and construction spending. And, more importantly, you need to pay attention to the rate of change in these indicators, which is clearly trending down.
But you won’t see that in your lagging indicators like the ‘median home price.’ And here's the real issue-you don’t even understand why the median home price is rising. Is it due to increased demand, or is it because fewer lower-priced homes are being sold while higher-priced properties dominate the market? This is a classic example of misinterpreting data. When transaction volumes are low, but median prices rise, it doesn’t indicate strength in the market-it indicates that only higher-end properties are being sold. The lower-priced homes are not moving.
This skewed data gives a false impression of market strength. It’s not that ‘all homes are selling for more’-it’s that the few homes that are selling are skewing the median upward. This creates the illusion of rising prices, but it’s driven by a lack of volume at the lower end. So, you have low transaction activity, yet the median price continues to climb, and you misinterpret that as overall market strength.
This is nothing more than chart manipulation-the data is misleading because it fails to account for the composition of the sales. The reality is that the forward-looking indicators are pointing down, and you're blind to it because you're fixated on metrics that only show you what has already happened. This reliance on lagging data is why so many analysts miss the turn in the market. You are chasing shadows of the past rather than understanding the direction the market is truly heading
Mike, comparing absolute dollar prices YoY doesn't tell the full story in my opinion. If higher priced homes are selling compared to last year, it makes it look like prices are increasing. I think a more valuable metric would be comparing price per foot.
@@GregoryCola I have been using box plots, they are really helpful for showing the movement of the upper and lower quartiles relative to the median and average sold price. Price per foot doesn't account for home quality. Plenty of fixer uppers out there selling for less.
You're describing what one economist calls the "mix-shift" phenomenon and that absolutely has been hiding price declines in many cities for as much as a year and a half now.
@@nitroneonicman Agree, home quality is another issue not taken into account when using dollar value or price/ft. Ideally the same home trades every year! I know Zillow is far from perfect but at least they "try" to keep track of FMV of each home.
sellers have been expecting rate cuts to keep afloat their home's value. now that the cutting cycle has begun, we're seeing even more inventory piling up on the market. that will remain the case until they lower their prices.
Rapid and deep rate cuts saved no one in the last downturn.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 bingo! but people like mike and the national association of realtors are misleading sellers into believing.
Nope. People are waiting because the fed pivoted and they know rates are in a track to go lower over the next year. They’re waiting it out until it’s in the low 5’s. Then the floodgates open
@@TheMinor7thdoubt it, at five percent using the average payment you’d save around $200.00 max which is still unaffordable for most.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 last downturn was a global credit crisis. Definitely keep that in mind. We are not in that situation
I live in Silicon Valley. I can't believe how many multi-million dollar homes are on the market right now. Is there enough buyer demand for numerous $4mm homes on the market? Likely not - which means your home really isn't worth $4mm. Buyers can be very selective right now.
Thanks Mike. Yeah, similar vibes in Sacramento. It's been low supply meeting low demand. This year has seen pretty modest price growth though.
This data is completely misleading. I wonder when one of these TH-camrs will start sharing real numbers, instead of skewed figures that measure median home prices while including million-dollar properties in the mix.
it's a bubble. A home sold in Arizona in 2021 for 200k is again in the market for 300k!
It seems pretty obvious to me. There are a bunch of Pandemic buyers trying to sell what they overpaid for without a loss, and realtors are clawing at keeping prices as high as possible. There isn't a strict timeline, but there is a process, and the timeline will obey the process in due time.
eh, people are just going to start giving up and becoming landlords. That's what I did.
No lol
I completely agree with you on the pandemic people trying to resell their homes. I’ve noticed a lot of homes going back on the market that were bought from 2020 to 2022. Plus,they are increasing their sell price of the homes with next to no upgrades..
Yes, I am seeing a few houses on the market that were purchased 2020-22. They are often listed slightly above the previous sales price.
@@ebutuoy5088 You again. Don't you have a Monday morning sales rally to attend?
Home prices divided by M2 money supply is an instructive metric.
interesting.
@@gregdaugherty6065 that's really smart
Can you elaborate? What you just said is interesting
Can you please go more into detail on what you just said. I have never heard M2 money supply before.
@@theernalrealestategroupatk707 The principle is that money becomes less valuable if more of it is created. Real Estate prices have increased in rough proportion to the money supply. Stated differently, real estate prices haven’t really gone up, but rather, the currency has weakened. Another way to illustrate this observation is to measure prices in ounces of gold.
Sellers are delusional. They will face reality soon.
Don’t be coy. Tell us what that reality is, Nostradamus.
Austin, TX is the cautionary tale of what could happen in a market if supply increases and buyer demand isn't there. Look at Austin/ Zillow - how does a buyer select a home when there are a bunch for sale (with no product differentiation) within a few block radius? Unconstrained markets like TX, AZ and FL where you can build at will are tough places to be. I know people will hate on East/West Coasts but there is a reason why they are holding up better.
if there are multiple gallons of milk on the shelf, how does a grocery shopper select a gallon of milk?
Thank you, Mike. Can you answer me the riddle of Texas sale price obfuscation, and how you get TX sales data? Is it an aggregate figure or do you get individual contract data? We have always checked the box not to disclose our purchase price on Texas real estate, and as far as I understand not even the property tax office gets the actual sales price. As I understand it, appraisers do have the actual closing price data, but realtors do not. When you look on consumer sites like zillow you virtually never see a Texas prior sale price, only the list price or zestimate.
Thanks for all the info!
I think that is just a visual thing where the price is hidden from the public but check out the County GIS data it might be public also Zillow tends to not hide sales prices, but I am on the west coast so maybe texas is different?
Those red states are really bizarre and weird. Same in Montana. How do you establish home value w/o comps? That's why I stay away from such states.
@@malanalan1 exactly - we don't establish a market value. Some kind of tx privacy law where sale price is private if you elect. I don't think it's a municipal thing .
It creates a situation where large scale buyers would be incentivizeed to bribe the appraiser for the secret data. Buyers only have asking prices and guestimating based on how long it sits on market.
In Southern California I am unequivocally seeing some sellers throw in the towel and take the "low ball" offers (still outrageously high offers but "low" compared to the May 2022 peak). But there also many, many holdouts with fantasy asking prices that are just collecting dust. There is also a huge difference now between the prices of what's available (the green boxes on Redfin) and what was recently sold (the blue boxes on Redfin). It's all super fishy and misleading if you don't know how to study trends at the neighborhood/subdivision level. Take a look at Buena Park for example. If all you look at is active inventory, you would swear most neighborhoods are low to mid 900 neighborhoods...but the closed sales in the last few months appear to be mostly in the 8's and quite a few in the high 7's.
I don’t know much at all about any area in California, but if it’s a similar lot size, square feet of living area, same beds and baths, and in the same neighborhood/development the homes would be worth what the most recent closed sales were (especially if sold in the last six months) give or take some value for upgrades.
@CaptainCaveman1170 your 50 years too late to socal buddy
@@ebutuoy5088 Not at all been here for almost 50 years I'm just using it as a very curious metric. It seemed impervious to price drops for a long time but it seems like it's happening in earnest now.
@@CaptainCaveman1170I’m from SoCal prices here haven’t dropped here yet. I still expect a 3% drop due to seasonality. Next year starting February prices will shoot back up again.
@@House_hacker_619 San Diego does appear to be holding up better than LA, the IE and Bakersfield. Victorville/Hesperia are taking it on the chin by my own analysis.
Prices aren't falling, and people aren't buying. Whoops! Humpy Dumpty is broken!
You know what happens when a market runs out of willing and/or able buyers? Dust off the old econ101 book.
@@CaptainCaveman1170we are running out of both in this scenario 😬
In hot neighborhoods housing has never stopped selling
@@Ja56780we won’t be running out of sellers when people lose their jobs
It’s a ponzi scheme with more fraud and more sketchy loans that you could ever imagine
Remember a few weeks ago he kept saying inventory has peaked and will decline
It isn't ticket science: extremely low base of buyers, same until recently with sellers. The ship is clearly turning, it simply takes longer under these unusual circumstances. Condos in FL are the first leg down. BTW your thesis in "dropping rates equals dropping inventory" is the first shoe to drop...
I am a ticket scientist and can confirm prices are going up.
@@soundsnags2001 I am a ticket surgeon and can confirm your assertion as well.
Prices are absolutely going down anywhere below a line drawn from Los Angeles to say Nashville or Raleigh. Above that, I don't know and I don't care really because the frenetic activity is always focused more on the south. No one is being ruined if their Ohio house goes from $180k to $140k but if your San Antonio house goes from $500k to $300k (as it very well could imo) now that could be a big problem.
Mel, how are the family and the kids doing?
@@meljohnson5926 no leg is coming down
Prices will not falluntil the m2 money supply reduces or a huge decrease in the population. The m2 money supply is at 21 trillion dollars and climbing. The Fed balance sheet is at 7.1 trillion dollars. There is yoir teason why prices are not falling. To much money chasing to few assets.
I hear worry in your voice.
You should be worry free if you own a house or two. 🎉
he wont be able to sell it much longer
@@xianx1866 you sure about that? Personally I don't find it very comforting to pay more taxes on a house that I'd likely be unable to sell at the price it's being appraised at. Anyone who bought properties as rentals using leverage is definitely sweating right now too. Luckily I bought my rental properties ten years ago.
@@nitroneonicmananybody? Are you sure about that because I bought my last property in August 2022 and I’m doing very well.
@@House_hacker_619 you can gaslight me all you want, the numbers don't lie. There is a zero percent chance that you're renting out a property you bought in August 2022 in California for more than your mortgage on it sorry
People are sick of moving and grass is greener thinking. Many Cali folks want to move back to Cali after a couple hot and humid summers in South Texas. Getting your money back is impossible, so if you cannot stomach a loss, you stay. The idiot lawsuit that hurt buyers and buyers agents along with interest rates comparative to the last decade or so, will prohibit folks from risking a move. The grasshopper era may be winding down. So glad I stayed put, with my 2% mortgage. I could have sold triple what I paid, but a low mortgage with a modest roof overhead is more valuable than cash right now.
Right, your home is a home, not an investment. This thinking has unfortunately escaped us into home = piggy bank.
Where’s this evidence about people wanting to move back to CA?
@@seanm3226 Evidence? LOL why would they want to stay in TX or MT after a couple years? LOL perfect weather in socal and their soul is still there.....Personally I know 5 couples that are trying to figure out how to move back......stupid azz question by you.
Supply and demand equilibrium
If you remove the 2007-2011 period from the data pool since 1942, we have only had one year in history when nominal prices fell, and that was only 1%, too.
The history of big national price crashes has distress sellers in mass with duration.
I urge people to read the data. Once you do, 2022, 2023, and 2024 make more sense.
Home prices crashing is rare but that is because rapid home price appreciation is also rare... there are entire decades where home prices hardly moved... If a home sold in 1989 for $104,000 and then is sold for $108,000 in 1999 the odds of that home crashing by 20 or 40% in 2000 or 2001 is basically zero.. home price stability creates home price stability... but when homes appreciate 8, 10 or even 20% YoY for several years there is way more exposure to a major price correction.
@@jonathantaylor6926 Prices rose faster from 1977-1979 than 2020-2022
@@jonathantaylor6926we’re not even close to 80’s unaffordable market😂.
@@jonathantaylor6926don’t even bring up the current unemployment, inflation and interest rate. The 80’s had 18-21 interest rate, UNEMPLOYMENT at 11% in 1981 and inflation at 8.5%😂.
@@LoganMohtashamiwe’re opposite from the last GFC except for the price and higher unemployment during GFC. Rent was cheap and I don’t remember we had inflation. We were oversupply from foreclosures, new build and short sale. It’s the opposite now.
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Please report on percent of list price received. Anecdotally, it’s rare that I see a home close for 100% of list price in my buy box. Often they close for significantly less.
Crashes happen when there are mass foreclosures. They happen when people lose their jobs ie recessions or Black swan events. Small corrections happen when supply outpaces demand which is what we have had over the last two years. The “crash” is already over. Save your money and buy before the next big move up is my opinion. Sidenote: don’t be fooled by percentages. Inventory is up but not historically high by any means. Saying listings are up by 37 percent sounds big but it’s not a big deal in real numbers. Waiting until the market turns back to multiple cash offers 50k over asking is the worst possible strategy in this market
Home prices have basically gone up non-stop since the 80s
Since the 1940s but yes you are correct.
Cliche.
@@AltosResearchexcept for 2008-2013 when all of the houses in our town lost money and didn’t fully regain until the pandemic
and interest rates have gone down since the 80s until the last two years.
@@malanalan1 “Cliche” doesn’t make it untrue.
I thought it was the peak for the year? Ooops
The Subto cult, Asian buyers the past two years, and migrants. These three things have held the ceiling up.
In a season that is typically known for falling prices, it will be interesting to see what lower interest rates will do to prop prices up.
The long end of the Treasury bond market is up, meaning mortgage rates are not coming down. The FED cut was fully priced in already. It's actually looking like mortgage rates will being going up slightly.,
@@jonathantaylor6926rate will come down due to the spread collapsing. The spread is at the high end. Once the risk on inflation is clearly over the spread should collapse to 1.5. That is an entire point just in the spread.
@@jonathantaylor6926 interesting. Mortgage rates have been cratering recently. Like you say though, those rates could already be priced in.
Thanks.
Boom and then bust. Regular cycle
It's a scam cycle but a cycle none the less... there really should not be any "boom and bust"... yeah maybe some minor ebbs and flows of the economy but the reason we get these extreme highs and then extreme lows is because of the FED meddling with interest rates.
@@jonathantaylor6926 The big boys make money on the way up, sell it all to mom and pop at the peak, let it burn and then buy it all up for cheap after the bust. That's why the boom bust cycle will never be eliminated, even though it could be just with sensible/proactive interest rate policy and responsibly enforced lending standards/regulations. As a conservative I'm not for over regulation, but what we have now is complete bankster-serving trash.
@@jonathantaylor6926and human nature.
Uh oh. Crash Bros will be triggered...
looks bad
Rates haven't fallen enough. When they do, buyers will rush the market.
I'll be curious to see this as well. They said they same thing about any rates in 6s and no movement. Now we are in the low 6s and no movement.
@@hankduncan2665I am not sure how many people outside of those that benefit from sales expected 6.5 to bring people rushing in. Next year rates will get to an attractive level.
Its not the rates. Its the prices. The consumers have wised up.
@@jasonfield7825 false
@@jasonfield7825 lol
Home values are declining rapidly throughout southwest Florida.
Declining from 2022? Big deal.
Home values are declining in every state.
I live in NY. Not so, here. Wish it was!
Declining from what? Low(er) mortgage prices with keep home values steady.
No, they're not. What world do you live in? Home prices are up YOY. Delusional.