ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 มิ.ย. 2024
- Robby Soave and Jessica Burbank discuss polling guru Nate Silver's predictions for the 2024 presidential election. #Trump #Biden
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So nice hearing robbie talk without bri cutting him off
Yeah, it's the Robbie show maybe they'll add an audience and you can become a clapping seal.
@@josephshields2922show me on the doll where the bad man hurt you 🥲
@josephshields2922 That's a good idea.
Did Bri get fired?
@@lynne0528You must've been out of the country because she got fired a few weeks ago.
Oh no the CEO’s don’t support Trump. One more reason for me to vote for Trump.
Exactly! They're some of the biggest crooks in the world. I trust CEO's like I trust a used-car salesman.
While I'm not a fan of CEOs either, the 10% import tariff that they're worrying about should also worry the average citizen as it is them that would have to eat the cost in the end
@@terranova9838 Great point!
I know its like a badge of honor.
It's a mystery to the rest of the world why American voters restrict themselves to the uniparty.
Please hire Jess full time. I don’t agree with everything she says, but she’s respectful of Robby and not condescending like Brie. She also doesn’t talk over him.
Yes
I 2nd this. I disagree with her on some things, but she's able to communicate it in a civil manner and be open to discussion. The last guy nearly lost me as a viewer. Her and Robby are a good fit full time.
Of course she's better than Brie. That's a low bar though. Jess hates Trump and always manages to get that across, but yeah ofc she's way better than Brie.
Under Trump I only had to work one job to feed a family. Thanks to Biden I have to work 2 jobs, and I don't get to see my kids much as I want.
and under another Trump presidency you will still need the 2 jobs. the difference is not between these 2 fools we call presidents. the 2018 economy is not coming back
My wife went back to work after 20 years of raising children and being a homemaker just so we do not have to starve. Great job everyone
when people made the joke that democrats are generous with other people's money they didn't get that it was a joke.
Are you that simple to not realize that inflation is worldwide and that the USA is actually doing better than other countries??? If trump was president now inflation would still be here… it has nothing to do with the president
You are dealing with, today, the consequences of Trump's policies. Those tax cuts? They only stayed for the top 1%. That inflation? The result of his mishandling of the pandemic, and Republicans in congress shooting down legislation that aimed to control both inflation and price gouging
Just another day in the idiocracy simulation.
I don't even want to hear from either Jessica or Robby. But I do wat to hear Nate Silver say how Poopy Pants is going to loose.
Go ahead and try that one again bud 😂
Will Joe Biden make it through the debate without changing his diapers?
Spellcheck is your friend, not your enemy.
‼️ why is Jake Tapper absent from CNN the past couple of days?? is he at Camp David prepping Joe Biden for debate⁉️
A legit question. 👍🏼
Robbie making a logical argument, Jessica an emotional one. It reminds me of 2016 all over.
Seems like she made a pretty logical argument that the model didn't work before.
@@utah_koidragon7117no she did not at all. The model assigned probabilities and an event with a very reasonably likely chance of happening (30%) happened. I’m on the left and I hate it when the person on the right has to explain how math works to the person on the left. It’s not a firing offense, but she needs to do better.
@@DaraParsavand Did we listen to the same segment? She said she checked the methodology Silver used in 2016 when he gave Hilary a 70% chance of winning and it's essentially the same as the methodology he's using now to give Trump a 66% chance of winning, right? And she's saying if it didn't work to predict the winner correctly in 2016, why should we give it any credence this time around?
I understand 70% is not 100%. Point remains- what's the value of this prediction?
They were both logical arguments, but Robbie's was the more erudite and nuanced argument. Jessica was trying to say this is the same model as it was 8 years ago, therefore it's flawed. But that's not what the statistics imply at all.
@@jeffjwatts I don't know if she said the model was flawed, she questioned whether it's worthwhile to put so much effort into it when it doesn't seem to have much predictive power.
Nate Silver's model in 2016 gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning. Several other models had it around 1%.
jessica never lets logic or rational thinking get in her way of an emotional argument.
Why debate President Trump's policies are for the people not against the people.
Are you saying Mr.Trump should skip the debate with President Biden ? The Trump policies I remember were during covid. Wearing a mask became a political statement. There were super-spreader events. First Trump cabinet members caught it and then Trump himself. The policies I remember .... got people killed.
His policies on covid or his policies on the peaceful transfer of power ?
"for the people" policies? Collectivist nonsense ;)
I stoppped paying attention to Silver in 2016. He predicted HRC would win that election when it was clear that she was widely unpopular on both the left and right for valid reasons. Her loss was only a surprise to centrists. Hopefully he is as wrong on this as he was on te 2016 election.
Biden only chance is for his cadre to hit trump with some more felonies right before the election. If he is unable To do this he's going to lose. So his colleagues better start readying the criminal charges and find a good jury.
But he said DT had the much greater chance of winning 2024.
Jessica, how did rich people do under Biden?
Very well. They had the inside track like Pelosi.
VERY WELL.
Maybe we should ask red lobster, kraft, deny’s, Safeway, Walmart, target, bed and beyond, rite aid, we works, and a few banks 🤷🏻♂️
The record amount of “dark money” going to Biden is all you need to look at.
Biden STILL IS the president!
A lot of rich businessmen loved Adolf too, and look where it got them.
I studied this for years, and no. Not true, working class backed Adolf, later as he rose to power he pressured industrialists to be heavily integrated. People were very anti free market and entrepreneurship back then - eventually only politically connected people started steering the industries.
Silver is not only model predicting this
Robbie is so much more animated when Jessica's on
So am I… well, certain parts of me are anyways😂
I really like it when these two are together.
Nate Silver lost all credability in 2016. Accurate polling is nearly impossible in such a scattered media culture.
Correction Robbie "the genocide in Gaza", is what you meant to say.
All things being equal, tariffs are deflationary, not inflationary.
Tariffs remove money from the economy and transfer it to the government thus lowering the inflationary budget deficit.
This lowers M2.
Mr. Sonifeld does not understand inflation.
Kennedy FTW. Enough with these corrupt old geezers.
I am not going to watch the DEBATE because I can guarantee the moderators can not be fair to save their lives.
The second Presidential Debate is being held at the Regan Library in Simi, Ca. and hosted by Fox. Will you watch that one ?
@@rapidsqualor5367 In Commifornia fairness in media would be nowhere to be found there as well.
CNN was actually extremely fair for once.
@@nj1537 I agree, surprised the heck out of me. I didn't watch like I said but the news reports were very telling.
I watched it ; our guy lost. So will Jared and Ivanka be working in the White House again ?
Wow and this was BEFORE the debate…
If Biden's debate goes badly expect to hear about Gavin newsome.
If Trump's debate goes badly expect the court cases to go on.
I agree with Robbie on essentially none of his politics, but his response to Jessica re: interpreting statistics is absolutely correct.
Trump's meeting on Capitol Hill with business leaders was very bad for him.
Small business love trump too
Any poll or prediction that happened before the debate can be thrown out.
Spare me. Low inflation and low fuel costs from January 2017-January 2021. I’ll take my chances with Trump
Thanks for getting rid of BJG. I was getting annoyed waiting for her next slander against whites.
Too early to count Kennedy out!
"for you and me" not "for you and I" (object of the preposition to).
Okay, so I have no access to the Like/Dislike, Reply, Report, Delete buttons. I guess that's how shadow-banning works?
If we dont elect rfk jr, then we are truly lost.
Omg...could you imagine? Between the three, who do you think other world leaders would listen to? Who do you think our enemies would take seriously?
Joe Biden banned Kennedy from the debate. Another one of his made up dictator rules.
Abolish electoral colleges. Popular
vote should be above anything else.
I agree. We don't need the Electoral College ; We have the telegraph now.
This show is so good. These two have good chemistry. I hope Jessica stays!
Nate was the most bullish on Trump in 2016 at 30%. Jessica is gorgeous.
"For you and me".
-- Goodness, now even the reporters are making this mistake.
So good and refreshing not to see and not to hear the unbearable Briahna Grey...
I know Robbie was picking a number out of the air but we have had more than 45 presidential elections..we have had 59 elections for president.
It's clear Robbie enjoys talking w Jess a lot more than Bri...he seems more relaxed and not looking harassed 24/7. Im assuming Bri can match his intelligence and gave him a run for his money 😂
Looks like he just enjoys not being talked over constantly. An anchor position shouldn’t be a bully pulpit. This isn’t msnbc.
Ya seems like a done deal, Robby and Jessica is about as close as they've ever gotten to regaining that Krystal and Saagar dynamic.
Trump 2024
😂😂😂
You forgot "for prison"
Looks like someone hates America
Hillary had a 92% chance in October so I would put too much into this prediction right now.
Hillary had a 92% to win the popular vote, which she did. Everyone back then forgot a little something called the electoral college exists.
Dude called Killary had an 85% chance the week before she lost.😂😂😂😂😂
Dems question poll "models" but worship any olde "climate models" 🤣
Great post !
This wasn't a poll this was one man's opinion and a wrong one at that
hush now child!!
@@MyName-pl7zn classic dem saying..."show me the money, I'll show you the science"
@@peetky8645 Don't you have some fauci worshiping to do?
A vote for Trump is a vote for CHANGE. A vote for Biden is a vote to continue what has gotten us into this mess for the past forty years.
the system does need to change for the American public,
change such as universal health care, affordable college, money out of politics, climate change taken seriously, common sense gun legislation, stronger labor laws for employees, and not spending almost a trillion $$$ on the military budget every year. I don't see Trump (or Biden) enacting any positive change like that for the people.
@@ciaranosullivan9352Democrats talk about everything you just named every election cycle and have never done ANY of it. No more reason to vote for them really.
Well, it's Republican policies that have strangled the GDP, given us the biggest historical debt and caused 10 out of 11 recessions. So a vote for Biden would circumvent that atrophy of the economy...just like any vote for Democrat has for as long as we've kept records or 85+ years.
66% is hardly much and lower than what he predicted for Hillary in 2016.
We’ve known this for 2 years now
Liberals when models predict trump victory: Oh, I'm not so sure, where's the ability of the model to predict the past, the data isn't conclusive, ho hum.
Liberals when models predict doomsday climate apocalypse: TRUST THE SCIENCE.
Jessica - you look professional and are doing an exceptional job with your presentation and commentary. Well done.
If the model was 66% in favor of Bernie Sanders, Jessica wouldn't be looking into how robust the polling is.
66.6%? c'mon man?
Yeah but Robby, I reject everything you just said.
-Everyone of Robbys co-host
Want actual change and to leave all this garbage behind? Vote Kennedy
Betting errs on the side of Trump right now, but by a few percentage points, and with the trends reversing. This has gone back and forth a few times already in the last several months. No one realistically has a clue now, and there is no point trying to make sense of it.
You're both making great points, but boy, Robbie is really talking over Jessica a lot on this segment.
Democracy vs Fascism 2024
by Mussolini's metric "Fascism is the perfect marriage between big business and government" we already live in a Fascist state.
Here’s a hot take, stop wasting the time you have to change the results by attempting to predict them
Who cares what Nate Silver says...I don't!
In the rest of the world red is lett wing and blue is right.
"In the rest of the world red is lett wing and blue is right." It used to flip flop in the US, usually every presidential election the news channels, would show one side would be Red and the other Blue, but it wasn't consistent. Sometimes Red would be Democrats and Blue would be Republicans. Somehow, during the 2000 election it became fixed as Republican's Red and Democrats Blue and it was pretty much happenstance.
@@jeffjwatts eg: George Wallace D-Al.
Rich ppl like trump,poor ppl like trump. Seems like its just online activists don’t who don’t like him
One or the other candidate who are candidates of the two major parties on election day have a 100% chance of winning, and the other has a 0% chance.
If you flip a coin is there a 100% chance that it lands on the side it lands on?
@@Norrieification No, a coin flip is a random event with roughly the same probability to land on one face or the other. This can be shown by flipping the coin several times. Horse racing odds are handicapped to hedge the money bet via the parimutuel system so that the house makes its take. An election is a matter of will, NOT random chance. Most people have decided which candidate they will vote for. There is a small fraction of the electorate in a few States who have not yet decided for whom they will vote, or whether they will vote, and who will decide the outcome. If the election occurred today, one man would win and the other would lose. In November, it will be the same. There may be no change between now and November.
Refusing a drug test means
" Yes, I'm using a drug".
If No use drag,
No refuse a drag test.
That's all !!
Right?
Illogical.
Well, Trump has refused to take his drug test as condition of his conviction. So, by your logic- he's on drugs.
Our logic shows he's on drugs from the unprescribed medication forms his demoted alcoholic unlicensed doctor was ordering by the thousands for Trump and his cabinet that we have as evidence.
Girl claims to understand statistical analysis. Opens mouth and proves to everyone she does not while dude has to mansplain how it works. Priceless.
Way back before 1913, we didn't have income taxes. Imports had tariffs that funded the government. So, if income taxes are decreased by the amount of the import taxes, that may be a very great thing that won't cause more inflation. It would encourage manufacturing in the USA.
Hello, Rising peeps!
This must be the tenth time I've seen Jessica display her fundamental ignorance of statistics. Like ProbStat 101 stuff. It's cringy.
Nate Silvers clearly did not consider actuarial tables when creating his model. According to the tables, there is a 4% chance that at least one person will die within 4 months in a pair consisting of a 78-year-old and an 81-year-old male.
Trump🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🙏🙏
Wasn't that the same odds Hillary had in 2016?
Captain obvious day. Swap him out.
Did Nate predict Trump win in 2016?
Oh, talking percentages eh? LOL! Are we all not in the Know yet? We do understand that the DC is a foreign entity (run from England) that is-a Corporation. And that the US became a Corporation (not to confuse with United States of America vs. UNITED STATES CORPORATION). And that the STATES are operating as subsidiaries to the US (CA vs California, TX vs Texas, WA vs Washington). California is the state whereas CA is the Corporation Subsidiary.
Knowing the aforementioned, we know that the President is like any corporation, The President is elected as a face for the US Corporation and NOT the United States of America. And therefore the President is not a REAL president. This is a facade of a government. We know this right?
So how do they have power then? Acquiescence and tacit. Simply that.
Statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that the 2024 presidential election wasn't a toss up, but rather the contest favored former President Donald Trump over incumbent Joe Biden.
Silver, who made his name at the New York Times and later poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, said the model he built suggests Trump has an edge over Biden, even though Silver said he doesn't want Trump to be president and doesn't plan to vote for Trump.
Not a Jessica fan but this is SO MUCH BETTER. Watching two civilized people never felt so good. Bri's hostility and aggression was so uncomfortable to witness.
FJB
The Hill is just a finer version
of Newsmax but with the same
delusional attitude.
Jessica faltered big time in this segment. You’ve worked with models and don’t understand basic probability and needed Robbie to explain it? I’m not convinced you have the mathematical chops to critique the model testing (and the model applies to other races not just president). If you want to get an expert to interview who feels like you do that Silver’s model is worthless, that’s fine. But don’t overstep your knowledge base in public.
It's, "You and me", not,"You and I ",
Ha. Robbie needs to explain statistics to Jessica. I barely agree with Bri but at least she is much better prepared. No model will be ever accurate!!! It is predictions. Oh my!! Painful to listen to her. Please hired someone prepared!!!!
Just stopping by to enjoy the absence of Briahna the Joyless!
She’s so attractive, wow
Follow the money. Which side is getting more donations from these CEOs? Polls aren't reliable because as Jessica said, CEOs want to avoid backlash.
I am so pleased that Brianna Joy Gray appears to be gone
That's why he will be swapped out practically last minute
Even if the model is the same, the input data are different and therefore the predictions.
Disliked...bring back Briahna.
RFK Jr!
Wait till after election to know if his model is correct.
What people say and do is all different !
Stop arguing about a poll. Talk about policies
I think it’s important to have a good speaking voice if you are going to be a host.
Nah. We all will vote and make sure that orange create will not be reelected
Jessica is just reaching there..lol
Jessica lives in South Carolina??? wow why?
Ok if in 2016 Trump out preformed the polls and you are using the same method this time Trump is at 66%, wouldn't it mean that Trump I'd even higher than 66%
Yes
The only good reason to vote for Trump is he is less likely to start a nuclear conflict. But the 2018 economy is not coming back.
Day of Election, 2016: Five Thirty Eight had HC @ 71.4% vs DT @ 28.6%
seems like fortune 500 cel's would support the racist candidate.
They are.
These supposed journalist need to be csutious in talking about Trump convictions... Biden would be convicted if his own justice department thought he was fit to stand trial. The question we should all be asking ourselves is, if Biden isnt fit enough to go to trial, how can he be fit enough to serve as president.