I don’t know, I’ve been watching the stock market since 2008, and I’m starting to genuinely believe it can’t go down. Any time stocks go down, they’re “on sale” kicking off a buying spree and new highs. Even investor pessimism is seen as bullish, as that tends to coincide with market lows. If all else fails, the government and/or fed will all but fall on a sword to keep it propped up. That’s what we saw in 2020
The market will probably crash unexpectedly. Try to time the market and you'll always fail. Try to reduce your losses, minimizing risk, don't think you can or should reduce the risk to zero.
A recession *IS NOT* going to be declared by next month. Maybe when the current AI & crypto bubble pops in Q4 2025 (and as the US economic pressure cooker implodes) but definitely not now.
The biggest counterpoint to the employment numbers is that the vehicle of gig jobs are inflating job growth values. I think I'm going to start investigating some data. If my hypothesis is correct you should start seeing median salary beginning to slide.
I’m not sure I agree with this video. The market (assets) rises when us prints money. Due to the us debt, they are printing money so it just keeps going up. The amount people are saving for cash is irrelevant. When the us stops printing money, the spike will stop. Interest rates will remain where they are while money is printed. They will lower when money printing stops.
This time is different!.... 1. This is an everything crash. 2. This will be an even bigger crash than the last ones. 3. Retail is in even deeper. So a lot of people will go personally bankrupt. 4. This one I just heard but this time it is not even about tricking the retail traders. But it's about crushing / outsmarting the other financial institutions.
Sry but Bonds aren't cash. Countries can go bankrupt. Even bank balances are not cash because they are only a claim against the bank. And if the bank goes bankrupt, the claim is gone. Only pysical cash is cash.
There has been structural changes in U.S economy which distort the jobless claims figure. A lot of people in this gig economy are not able to claim unemployment benefits anymore. But on the other hand a lot of low paying jobs have been created in this gig economy. Just look at you for instance. Online social media content creators is a big new industry.
This may be my confirmation bias speaking, but I've been steadily moving most of my portfolio into neurtral money markets and taking advantage of a decent interest rate. I'm growing my investments in inverse funds like SPXS, SDOW and SQQQ ready for the overheated market to drop while maintaining some positive ETFs which I'm continuing to take profits from.
It would be actually ridiculous if rates remain this high while assets keep going up. We already have a decade of insanely impressive market returns piled up with very poor fundamental backing. I am afraid that if things keep going up like this for a few more years, the resulting correction will be impossible to solve.
The purpose of saving is to have cash for future investment. If people don’t save, there is no investment cash. However, if the federal reserve is printing cash and artificially manipulating interest rates, savings get crushed by inflation forcing people to buy or invest or see their cash lose purchasing power.
I think the inevitable is just being delayed. I am not investing anything other than keeping my current ounces stacked. I will pay down my mortgage ($200k on a $650k house @ 4%) and resist accruing any new debts. If rates go down, I will refinance and maybe look to buy a second property. Otherwise, "Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast..."
After reading book titled The Elite Society's Money Manifestation, I finally understood why so many people struggle with money. It reveals stuff that most people don’t even know about how money really works. Has anyone else read it?
Dec 6 Initial Jobless Claims at 242k, it's getting close to that 260k level. What's the probability that it hits it in January/February after the Santa Clause rally?
If you're on Robin Hood, look at BIL, SGOV and USFR. All of these funds basically stay flattish but return a decent 4.5% interest rate currently. Look at how the funds have performed over the last year or more. If you're on Etrade or similar, take a look at VUSXX etc. which basically pay out monthly at the 4.25% range.
How much adjustment or consideration should we take for the large sums of money printed for Covid relief? That money has surely accumulated somewhere so shouldn’t the chart lines compensate that?
Ideally 'savings' are supposed to be pooled and invested by responsible banks into the productive economy, which is better long-term than simply spending it on consumer trinkets.
6:09 - A key difference from past periods where rates could stay higher for longer without triggering a recession is the amount of public and private debt. At current levels, the cost of servicing that debt - and in some cases rolling it over from lower past rates to higher current rates - would eventually suffocate economic activity. So, it looks to me like a recession is pretty much baked in, and the government delayed it until after the election for political reasons by amassing huge government debt in order to spend like crazy and juice the economy when the rest of the fundamentals have already deteriorated.
All these issues stem from an economy grappling with uncertainties, problems, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, leading to instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions demand urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Buffet also says to buy low so I hope prices go down for assets it give me the chance to lower my cost average and buy more only reason buffet isn’t doing it is he’s in his 90s he even know his time left is short he might not be alive when prices go back up sadly
Is looking at initial jobless claims relevant/accurate anymore? Does it really represent the amount of unemployment/underemployment/inability to pay for good/services due to inflation and wages not keeping up?
What is the ratio of money held in short term instruments like money market instruments vis a vis long-dated securities like 10-year treasuries? And what has been the delta in that ratio since Covid? I think this would be a good indicator of the general temperament of those who hold cash. Would also be interesting to know what the makeup is of that $6.5 Tn. In other words, have a lot of commercial real estate investors moved to cash in the short term in anticipation of the Fed cutting rates? What else might there be? Good video. I am not convinced a recession is coming so soon but you never know. I think one sure thing is that the progress and adoption of AI will have something to do with it. No doubt this positive productivity shock will be good for growth in the long run; but, if the rate of progress and adoption proceeds too slow relative to the expectations the market has, then we will see a correction, or tepid growth, at least. What do you think?
Stop using money market funds and start justifying your point using Savings rates when you specifically say Savings Rates. Money Market funds are not saving rates.
A recession has been overdue for a long time now, business cycles are inevitable. Personally I can't wait...I missed out buying in at the market bottom during COVID, I'm not going to make the same mistake twice.
It's not Trump. It's the past 4 years, and we all know it. Biden in 2020 couldn't print money fast enough. FRED reported on it. That's inflation. Then Biden couldn't give money away fast enough. He's much worse than any other president.
In long run, never a bad time to buy Bitcoin, dollar cost averaging is never a bad strategy with a strong asset, but a market bust is coming and there will be a major course correction. Bitcoin will crash as the stock market crashes. Make sure to have some cash on hand to buy as the prices fall and for emergency situations.
buffet keep cash because he is a value investor. His mind doesn’t match with the current market situation. His way of investing is traditional. He keeps cash not because market will crash. Because he think it’s not worth it to buy. 😂😂😂😂
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These tables need to be logarithmic, otherwise they can be quite misleading
I don’t know, I’ve been watching the stock market since 2008, and I’m starting to genuinely believe it can’t go down. Any time stocks go down, they’re “on sale” kicking off a buying spree and new highs. Even investor pessimism is seen as bullish, as that tends to coincide with market lows. If all else fails, the government and/or fed will all but fall on a sword to keep it propped up. That’s what we saw in 2020
I agree, the stock market is overheating, 5% yield is really satisfying and x100 safer.
Where can i park my money with 5% yeild?
Ally bank. 4.5% interest rate money market savings account. Doesn't get safer or easier than that.
CD rates have been close to 5%
Bonds
@@Максим-л1о5н When youre gonna have stagflation bonds arent the best option... xD
The market will probably crash unexpectedly. Try to time the market and you'll always fail. Try to reduce your losses, minimizing risk, don't think you can or should reduce the risk to zero.
A recession *IS NOT* going to be declared by next month. Maybe when the current AI & crypto bubble pops in Q4 2025 (and as the US economic pressure cooker implodes) but definitely not now.
0:43 Ah. Finally we know what caused the global outbreak of the COVID19 virus: people hoarding cash caused it! Thanks for clarifying that!
This cash has been on the sidelines for what 3 years now? Maybe it won't move off the sidelines...
The biggest counterpoint to the employment numbers is that the vehicle of gig jobs are inflating job growth values. I think I'm going to start investigating some data. If my hypothesis is correct you should start seeing median salary beginning to slide.
I’m not sure I agree with this video. The market (assets) rises when us prints money. Due to the us debt, they are printing money so it just keeps going up. The amount people are saving for cash is irrelevant. When the us stops printing money, the spike will stop. Interest rates will remain where they are while money is printed. They will lower when money printing stops.
It's crazy how it keeps going up in the long term after crashes.
Always interesting analysis. Minor point. Short term T-bills are all sub 4.5%. Who’s getting 5% on MMF?
This time is different!.... 1. This is an everything crash. 2. This will be an even bigger crash than the last ones. 3. Retail is in even deeper. So a lot of people will go personally bankrupt. 4. This one I just heard but this time it is not even about tricking the retail traders. But it's about crushing / outsmarting the other financial institutions.
Isn’t spy ytd 23%? Which s and p 500 is he talking abt at arnd 1:30 mark
Sry but Bonds aren't cash. Countries can go bankrupt. Even bank balances are not cash because they are only a claim against the bank. And if the bank goes bankrupt, the claim is gone.
Only pysical cash is cash.
I love this. States opinions clearly, gives the data, gives alternate views. Great way to present the analysis.
There has been structural changes in U.S economy which distort the jobless claims figure. A lot of people in this gig economy are not able to claim unemployment benefits anymore. But on the other hand a lot of low paying jobs have been created in this gig economy. Just look at you for instance. Online social media content creators is a big new industry.
Ready for the VIX to rocket.
Make the same prediction enough times and eventually you’ll be right
Always very useful
This may be my confirmation bias speaking, but I've been steadily moving most of my portfolio into neurtral money markets and taking advantage of a decent interest rate. I'm growing my investments in inverse funds like SPXS, SDOW and SQQQ ready for the overheated market to drop while maintaining some positive ETFs which I'm continuing to take profits from.
It would be actually ridiculous if rates remain this high while assets keep going up. We already have a decade of insanely impressive market returns piled up with very poor fundamental backing.
I am afraid that if things keep going up like this for a few more years, the resulting correction will be impossible to solve.
The purpose of saving is to have cash for future investment. If people don’t save, there is no investment cash. However, if the federal reserve is printing cash and artificially manipulating interest rates, savings get crushed by inflation forcing people to buy or invest or see their cash lose purchasing power.
I'm going to buy some gold
I'd wait. It's currently floating at all times highs.
You might want to buy some ripple.
Buy plat, rhodium, rhenium, etc.
Inflation is MUCH higher than the government claims
I think the inevitable is just being delayed. I am not investing anything other than keeping my current ounces stacked. I will pay down my mortgage ($200k on a $650k house @ 4%) and resist accruing any new debts. If rates go down, I will refinance and maybe look to buy a second property. Otherwise, "Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast..."
After reading book titled The Elite Society's Money Manifestation, I finally understood why so many people struggle with money. It reveals stuff that most people don’t even know about how money really works. Has anyone else read it?
Dec 6 Initial Jobless Claims at 242k, it's getting close to that 260k level. What's the probability that it hits it in January/February after the Santa Clause rally?
If we go into a recession, do you have any recommendations on where and how to invest for someone who never has before?
Buy and hold bonds until the stock market comes to the bottom. Then sell it and buy undervalued good businesses.
Buying CDs and treasury bonds, or simply putting money in a HYSA are good places to start.
gold! Stay away from any crypto whatsoever. Trump pumps out foreigners-people like Musk go too.
If you're on Robin Hood, look at BIL, SGOV and USFR. All of these funds basically stay flattish but return a decent 4.5% interest rate currently. Look at how the funds have performed over the last year or more. If you're on Etrade or similar, take a look at VUSXX etc. which basically pay out monthly at the 4.25% range.
Great analysis as usual. My only request would be to include in the potential influence of the upcoming policy changes with the new government.
i see your win rate, but what's your batting avg? i.e. percentage value of each win/ percentage value of each loss.
Forever game of trades. What does bravos research even mean?!
What about the cooperate tax cuts also tax cuts on individuals? Less regulations as well…..
How much adjustment or consideration should we take for the large sums of money printed for Covid relief? That money has surely accumulated somewhere so shouldn’t the chart lines compensate that?
Is it smarter to buy btc or drugs
Tell me if i'm wrong but the us jobless claims went higher yesterday right?
Real positive interest destroys money and reduces the money supply.
if you did nothing and just left your money in the market you'd still be up. doing something is for losers
I agree with your points, but Keynes was a doofus.
Earnings yield on the S&P has nothing to do with your ROI. I have no idea why you are even trying to compare.
Are the Fidelity FDRXX and SPAXX examples of the Money Markets you speak about?
Well explained, thank you for your insights.
Ideally 'savings' are supposed to be pooled and invested by responsible banks into the productive economy, which is better long-term than simply spending it on consumer trinkets.
Nobody can afford to be jobless. Initial jobless claims is only a good metric when the economy is running well.
Where value investors congregate
@7:51 There's something ironic in unknowingly showing inattention to detail to show inattention to detail. Just saying dudes.
Less growth and higher inflation....
As always. One of the best and most informative Channel ever !!!
6:09 - A key difference from past periods where rates could stay higher for longer without triggering a recession is the amount of public and private debt. At current levels, the cost of servicing that debt - and in some cases rolling it over from lower past rates to higher current rates - would eventually suffocate economic activity. So, it looks to me like a recession is pretty much baked in, and the government delayed it until after the election for political reasons by amassing huge government debt in order to spend like crazy and juice the economy when the rest of the fundamentals have already deteriorated.
Great time for Friedman to be wrong .
People save up because they can't afford...try affording a home with monthly payments of $3-5k per month....not easy
All these issues stem from an economy grappling with uncertainties, problems, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the aftermath of the pandemic, leading to instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions demand urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Buffet also says to buy low so I hope prices go down for assets it give me the chance to lower my cost average and buy more only reason buffet isn’t doing it is he’s in his 90s he even know his time left is short he might not be alive when prices go back up sadly
This time is not diffe(R)ent
stacking up my NFTs while there cheap
Jobless claims report today shows +17k (242k) and 24k over expected. re: last week's vid.
that together with everyone liquidating screams recession.
“Real interest rate“ compared to “real inflation“. What a joke if you’re actually using the government CPI.
Came for the late capitalist take on things, stayed for the motion graphics.
You've got the right idea, expand your timeline a bit though ;)
This time is different
lol yeah the money market saw the pandemic coming, makes total sense
sooo buy gold as my parents did back in the day
10 year 3 month yield is so close to un inversion. Market will crash 1- 3 months after this happens
Initial claims jumped to 242k today, above the 221k forecasted, so they are rising, not going down.
Who owns and buying all the stocks then pushing it up?
In a phrase, you are describing the velocity of money.
All those jobs are Federal Jobs.
Is looking at initial jobless claims relevant/accurate anymore? Does it really represent the amount of unemployment/underemployment/inability to pay for good/services due to inflation and wages not keeping up?
Everyone I speak with is seeing economic slowdown. We’re in recession for sure, whether admitted or not.
What is the ratio of money held in short term instruments like money market instruments vis a vis long-dated securities like 10-year treasuries? And what has been the delta in that ratio since Covid? I think this would be a good indicator of the general temperament of those who hold cash.
Would also be interesting to know what the makeup is of that $6.5 Tn. In other words, have a lot of commercial real estate investors moved to cash in the short term in anticipation of the Fed cutting rates? What else might there be?
Good video. I am not convinced a recession is coming so soon but you never know. I think one sure thing is that the progress and adoption of AI will have something to do with it. No doubt this positive productivity shock will be good for growth in the long run; but, if the rate of progress and adoption proceeds too slow relative to the expectations the market has, then we will see a correction, or tepid growth, at least. What do you think?
dca btc ftw
Stop using money market funds and start justifying your point using Savings rates when you specifically say Savings Rates. Money Market funds are not saving rates.
when the crypto market slows down NFTs are gonna explode
THE market is going up on a reverse crash
We're in a bull market up til mid terms..... then we crash
bitcoin target is 2B. and then 5B
Nono its different, this time it WILL fall.
Nice information
I think it's still bull market
Also we would have not had a recession in 2020 if it wasn’t man made from the pandemic…..
Thanks for the continuous update! I am super excited about how my stock investment is going so far, making over 8k weekly is an amazing gain
Not first.
Every comment on this video is robots shilling some financial service.
Inflating 10-20% , money market 5% interest 😂! Nobody knows how to count here! Good luck saving!
orange Jesus
This time it’s not different. Agreed. But. Crypto’s and AI are disrupting in a very big way
Binance infinity ETH bug right now
I just made a video to show that,
The F E D is G O D...😅😅
Or, hear me out - Don't sell just wait to buy at the low and you won't lose anything lmao
YUP... Trump has started a great recession/depression. Market will go down at least 33%.
Doesn't matter who is in office, the recession was coming anyway.
A recession has been overdue for a long time now, business cycles are inevitable.
Personally I can't wait...I missed out buying in at the market bottom during COVID, I'm not going to make the same mistake twice.
this youtuber has been calling a recession for over 2 years now. and trump isnt even in office wtf are u talking about
It's not Trump. It's the past 4 years, and we all know it. Biden in 2020 couldn't print money fast enough. FRED reported on it. That's inflation. Then Biden couldn't give money away fast enough. He's much worse than any other president.
Doesn't matter.
S&P500 increased 30% just in the past year, and 91% in the past 5 years.
30% drop will be just reset back to last year.
Buy Bitcoin!
Hell no, lol.
Bitcoin follows the market
Why are you selling?? 😂
In long run, never a bad time to buy Bitcoin, dollar cost averaging is never a bad strategy with a strong asset, but a market bust is coming and there will be a major course correction. Bitcoin will crash as the stock market crashes. Make sure to have some cash on hand to buy as the prices fall and for emergency situations.
Once everyones says "buy bitcoin", like now and not unlike every other bitcoin high, that is when you sell :)
81st like🥳🥳
Mmmm
❤
Jobless claims are lying somehow. Look deeper!
u smart.
First
Thank you for the content!! All we need is the right advice on how to invest in crypto and the bitcoin halving is a life changing opportunity
buffet keep cash because he is a value investor. His mind doesn’t match with the current market situation. His way of investing is traditional. He keeps cash not because market will crash. Because he think it’s not worth it to buy. 😂😂😂😂
So according to the graph, the smart money exited _below_ what the market later crashed to. Is that smart?