Hey I'm a 19 yr old trader who has been learning FX over 4 years, I'm at that point where I'm struggling with low confidence in strategies and can't seem to find a strategy with a positive expectancy over a large sample size 20 years. Everyone seems to talk about having an edge like it's easy. Is it wrong to feel like having a verifiable edge over the long term is the hardest part? If I had a backtested strategy over 20 years with a positive expectancy sticking to my rules wouldn't be an issue, In my mind it's an obvious necessity not to risk too much and to stick to my rules.
Hands down the best channel for traders... The summaries are all great! They give viewers a good idea of what books to invest in and what to expect from those books.
Great voice. Great summary. Great presentation. Thanks for not doing the mumbo jumbo music in the background! Very clear and easy to understand. You did an extremely professional job on this. I'm hooked.
i dont know why there's even a dislike in this video. in all the videos uploaded in this channel, i personally think this one's the most important lesson a trader should learn. doesnt matter what your setup is, just be strict and be disciplined in your money management and you'll be profitable.
Came across these videos while studying for an algo trading examination. Nice concise facts and great to know my own kind of thinking is already aligned with Dr Tharp (even though I have only just come across his book).
Good risk management allow you to stay in the game long enough to learn and become profitable, a journal is also important to learn what works and what needs improvement
So very helpful to get an informed opinion of a book like this. The reference to O’Neil was a nice bonus since I just got that from another solid authority. Thank you.
When you were talking about expectancy and opportunity factor, this is something I have thought of but never attached the given terminology so its nice to put terminology to an idea. While you may have a good solid idea and high profit expectancy, the opportunity factor on a single security might be fairly low. For example a strategy which is looking for the most opportunistic entry signals may only execute maybe 1 trade per month. But if you are using the same strict criteria on 100s of securities, then you can increase your opportunity factor without having to relax your parameters and reduce your profit expectancy per trade. Of course, scaling up a strategy to 100s of securities ideally requires a fully automated system. This is exactly what I am working on at the moment. Once you know you already have a strategy which is scalable, versatile and has an edge, the bigger work is on the risk management, position sizing and processes to handle different kinds of issues ( I completely agree with that idea). Alot of wisdom in the book and in your video so thank you very much for that.
Spot on Iniquuis, It's ok having an edge, but if there are very few opportunities then the harvest will be low AND you need volume for the edge to materialise.
I do this scaling up as well. However you then have to watch out for too much market correlation. Too few opportunities still because when they come, they can come in clusters which tends to not not alleviate the problem.
The explanation of R and expectancy from 4:50 to 5:30 is confusing. If R = $100 for both systems, how does system 2 allow for 2 trading losses of 5R where R is defined as the maximum amount risked per trade? This is contradictory, no?
love your work bro only one thing be a little more detailed... because every person cannot read every book available because there are n number of them in the market have a goal. to give a detailed review covering every aspect so that one who watches this video dont need to refer the book any further u are doing a great work..... views will come .. dont worry about it your work will always remain ever green .... great respect for your work
Would you consider mark minervinis vcp is a subjective entry because it relies on price action and judgment of the supply and demand and not a strict variable of indicators which are totally objective?
Hey, I do have a question related to the pattern recognition. Is there a scanner or a tool which would give you the stocks which are forming vcp patterns (cup and handle)? Of course we can use the screeners but still have to check all the stocks.
Hey I'm a 19 yr old trader who has been learning FX over 4 years, I'm at that point where I'm struggling with low confidence in strategies and can't seem to find a strategy with a positive expectancy over a large sample size 20 years. Everyone seems to talk about having an edge like it's easy. Is it wrong to feel like having a verifiable edge over the long term is the hardest part? If I had a backtested strategy over 20 years with a positive expectancy sticking to my rules wouldn't be an issue, In my mind it's an obvious necessity not to risk too much and to stick to my rules.
@@FinancialWisdom A larger RR on its own has nothing to do with profitability. You have to remember that most market price action especially intraday is random. You can't reliably make money from randomness. Without targeting real inefficiencies (non random price action), a higher RR just puts the odds against you, especially when you factor in commissions. I see a lot of traders buying into the fallacy that 1:4 1:7 will automatically make them profitable in the long run. This just isn't true. And statistically you will see many losing streaks on that RR which will no doubt do harm to your confidence. The answer is to research, take a quantitative approach, and derive ideas to backtest over a large sample size. This is the only way to know you have an edge.
@@ryuxfx52 lol. I have been trading for more than 30 years. A positive risk reward aligned with the appropriate win rate will put you on the right track. Too many stunt the reward portion of the equation by taking profits too early, whilst equally allowing loss to grow. Giving an inverted ratio. Its all about risk, reward and win rate
Another great video. I haven't read this one but will put it on the list. I just have one pedantic comment though. On the position sizing table where the risks are compared, 200, 500, 1000, I am slightly confused... Shouldn't the "R" number be 1000, 2500, 5000 as that is actually what they are risking with their stops? Or am I missing something? Sorry I may just be being dim.
Hi Yuthpati, thanks! I recently started a membership on you tube to discuss opportunites etc. I hope to start Etoro soon so people can follow my portfolio live😉
Trading with a risk/reward ratio of 3:1 or greater creates a positive expectancy for your trades whilst being profitable even when you are wrong 75% of the time.
4:50 at system1 the R = 9 .....not 10 so the expectancy would be 0.9. And for me none of the systems are good because it doesn't make sense for me to risk 1$ to make 1$ (at system 1) or to risk 1$ to make 20cents (at system 2)...is a chance for system 1 to be good if you would have a 80% win rate or so. What is unlikely if you don't like to scalp.
Im disappointed in the comments, nobody is talking about the book.. Well I'm gonna be the first: Yea man Tom Bassos coin experiment sums it all up, the only Holy Grail in trading, playing poker, even starting your own business, is money/risk management. Without it u're nothing
HI Pipo, I understand👍, The research and videos take me a while to complete and the adverts allow for at least some compensation, I hope the value they provide out way the annoyance of them to some degree...
@@FinancialWisdom yes right. Your stuff is worth watching the commercials. Very valuable. I appreciate that very much. Thanks for your time and for creating the great videos. If your popularity continues to grow, then maybe you can make a product of your own... let us know...
@Pipo Z Thanks Pipo, Funnily enough I just started a subscription due to the number of people asking the same question :-) th-cam.com/channels/3z9dDPBBClk-9IJJlXuMQg.htmljoin
I bought the book since it had 4.5* on Amazon. Hard to follow content due the luxury of examples and unnecessary descriptions. It is full of noise. The best and more concise chapters are from 12 ongoing. Overall I can call it a waste of time, I cannot even remember the first chapters after reading 400 pages. The author barely made a trade in his lifetime. I have listened to some of his material Van speaks with authority yet doesnt derive his income from trading but from selling books, tapes & seminars. Dont ever listen to anyone about trading unless their primary business is trading i.e they make 90-100% of their income from trading. If Van really knew psychology, he would be trading the markets & be making a killing, Van the man would rather write books & sell them for $15 than participate in a $85 billion per day market & earn his income from the markets.
Do what you love and love what you do. Some people like talking about the work more than actually doing it. I think we all have learned a lot from professional teachers who weren't necessarily doers. One thing that you said really stood out though was: "Hard to follow content due the luxury of examples and unnecessary descriptions. It is full of noise." Sounds like not the kind of book that I like so thanks a bunch for saving me the time. That's why I really appreciate FW "boiling it down" for us.
My p0rtfolio is plummeting significantly, I’ve lost about $320k within a few months and I'm not confident about picking st0cks anymore. Are there really no other options for me to gain from the stock market?
Very true. Despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately $950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice.
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon , and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
I can relate to that SO much.
I did ALL the mistakes in the beginning. Now I am a profitable trader :)
Thanks Clemens, p.s. Great following !! 👌
@@FinancialWisdom thank you :)
Hey I'm a 19 yr old trader who has been learning FX over 4 years, I'm at that point where I'm struggling with low confidence in strategies and can't seem to find a strategy with a positive expectancy over a large sample size 20 years.
Everyone seems to talk about having an edge like it's easy. Is it wrong to feel like having a verifiable edge over the long term is the hardest part?
If I had a backtested strategy over 20 years with a positive expectancy sticking to my rules wouldn't be an issue, In my mind it's an obvious necessity not to risk too much and to stick to my rules.
Hands down the best channel for traders... The summaries are all great! They give viewers a good idea of what books to invest in and what to expect from those books.
Much appreciated! thanks Lambskin🙏
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Only problem is that all of his videos are just a theory, the market is random and there is noway what so ever to know what is coming next.
Great voice. Great summary. Great presentation. Thanks for not doing the mumbo jumbo music in the background!
Very clear and easy to understand. You did an extremely professional job on this. I'm hooked.
i dont know why there's even a dislike in this video. in all the videos uploaded in this channel, i personally think this one's the most important lesson a trader should learn. doesnt matter what your setup is, just be strict and be disciplined in your money management and you'll be profitable.
Absolutely right Rei👍 As for the dislikes🤐
This is the best video and channel I've come across in 4yrs Thank you for putting this video out there.
This is one of your most helpful videos for me! Thanks a ton for making the concepts so easy :)
Happy to hear that!🙏
Came across these videos while studying for an algo trading examination. Nice concise facts and great to know my own kind of thinking is already aligned with Dr Tharp (even though I have only just come across his book).
Glad it was helpful!
Going to reread this again! It's my go to book when I get off the path so to speak.
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Wow! What a book and what a summary! Very helpful. Thank you brother 🙏
My pleasure!
Good risk management allow you to stay in the game long enough to learn and become profitable, a journal is also important to learn what works and what needs improvement
Sincere thanks for your brilliant presentations. Incredibly helpful. Just signed up for monthly membership based on the value of your channel.
Wow! Your videos are too great! Thank you so much for doing this work!
So very helpful to get an informed opinion of a book like this. The reference to O’Neil was a nice bonus since I just got that from another solid authority. Thank you.
Good luck 👍
Great video Thumper. Your backtesting skills make all the difference in explaining if a strategy can work or not. Thanks for sharing your work.
Glad it was helpful!
I hope this man get paid for his good work ..your vidéos are changing lives
Thanks a lot. Ans - Not really :-)
The video just like the book deserves 5🌟
Kindly mave a video on Expectancy and Opportunity Cost.
Thanks
Noted
I'm getting this book
It is a great book
When you were talking about expectancy and opportunity factor, this is something I have thought of but never attached the given terminology so its nice to put terminology to an idea. While you may have a good solid idea and high profit expectancy, the opportunity factor on a single security might be fairly low. For example a strategy which is looking for the most opportunistic entry signals may only execute maybe 1 trade per month. But if you are using the same strict criteria on 100s of securities, then you can increase your opportunity factor without having to relax your parameters and reduce your profit expectancy per trade. Of course, scaling up a strategy to 100s of securities ideally requires a fully automated system. This is exactly what I am working on at the moment.
Once you know you already have a strategy which is scalable, versatile and has an edge, the bigger work is on the risk management, position sizing and processes to handle different kinds of issues ( I completely agree with that idea). Alot of wisdom in the book and in your video so thank you very much for that.
Spot on Iniquuis, It's ok having an edge, but if there are very few opportunities then the harvest will be low AND you need volume for the edge to materialise.
I do this scaling up as well. However you then have to watch out for too much market correlation. Too few opportunities still because when they come, they can come in clusters which tends to not not alleviate the problem.
One of the best videos. Thanx mate👍
Thanks Atul 🙏
Best channel for traders : thanks for this review n video
My pleasure👍
Excellent summary ...
Thank you so much.....
It's so good and crisp...👍
Thanks Jemin👍
Your videos are taking my understanding of trading to another level! Many thanks 🙏
Happy to hear that!
what is meant by inner struggle. Does it mean discipline, sit out power, stick to own trading plan.
Absolutely
Thank you very much for this "perfect" review.
Thanks Ernesto🙏
Excellent presentation👍
Thank you! Cheers!
Fantastic thanks!
You're welcome!
Bravo, excellent content
Thanks!
Thanks Gareth. A useful revision exercise.
Glad it was helpful!
Brilliant content! Thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Brilliant book add to my collection as are Stan weinstein Mark Minervini Tim Grover, Jim Rohn
Great information 🌺👌👌
Thanks Rakesh
It is an eye-opening review. I really appreciate it.
Glad it was helpful!
Thank you! Just finished this book and this was an excellent summary! May I suggest a book review? The Investor's Quotient, from Jake Bernstein
Thanks Rodrigo, I'll take a look...
All your videos are amazing!!!
Thanks Aram🙏
The explanation of R and expectancy from 4:50 to 5:30 is confusing. If R = $100 for both systems, how does system 2 allow for 2 trading losses of 5R where R is defined as the maximum amount risked per trade? This is contradictory, no?
love your work bro
only one thing
be a little more detailed... because every person cannot read every book available because there are n number of them in the market
have a goal. to give a detailed review covering every aspect so that one who watches this video dont need to refer the book any further
u are doing a great work..... views will come .. dont worry about it
your work will always remain ever green ....
great respect for your work
Noted
Very Good will read book now
🙏
Love you and thanks
Thank you!
thaaaaaaanks
🙏
Very very nice video sir 👌
Thanks and welcome
Good content ❤
Great 👍
Thank you 👍
Would you consider mark minervinis vcp is a subjective entry because it relies on price action and judgment of the supply and demand and not a strict variable of indicators which are totally objective?
These are great keep it up
Glad you like them!
Nice video!! Very helpful!!
Thanks Life Upgrade
Thank for the video...can you do his Super Trader Book as well when you can?
Great suggestion!
Nice Video FW! Thanks for it
🙏
as always great content. thanks.
Glad you enjoyed it
What's the relationship between Cup and Handle patterns and MACD crossovers?
No direct relationship. Cup and handle is a technical set up, MACD is a momentum indicator
Hey, I do have a question related to the pattern recognition. Is there a scanner or a tool which would give you the stocks which are forming vcp patterns (cup and handle)?
Of course we can use the screeners but still have to check all the stocks.
Hi- My scanner in the group only looks for consolidation breakouts.
Excellent
Thank you! Cheers!👍
How do I cancel the automatic renewal to your group?
Hey I'm a 19 yr old trader who has been learning FX over 4 years, I'm at that point where I'm struggling with low confidence in strategies and can't seem to find a strategy with a positive expectancy over a large sample size 20 years.
Everyone seems to talk about having an edge like it's easy. Is it wrong to feel like having a verifiable edge over the long term is the hardest part?
If I had a backtested strategy over 20 years with a positive expectancy sticking to my rules wouldn't be an issue, In my mind it's an obvious necessity not to risk too much and to stick to my rules.
Its not easy, but getting a positive risk reward is key to it
@@FinancialWisdom A larger RR on its own has nothing to do with profitability. You have to remember that most market price action especially intraday is random. You can't reliably make money from randomness. Without targeting real inefficiencies (non random price action), a higher RR just puts the odds against you, especially when you factor in commissions.
I see a lot of traders buying into the fallacy that 1:4 1:7 will automatically make them profitable in the long run. This just isn't true. And statistically you will see many losing streaks on that RR which will no doubt do harm to your confidence.
The answer is to research, take a quantitative approach, and derive ideas to backtest over a large sample size. This is the only way to know you have an edge.
@@ryuxfx52 lol. I have been trading for more than 30 years. A positive risk reward aligned with the appropriate win rate will put you on the right track. Too many stunt the reward portion of the equation by taking profits too early, whilst equally allowing loss to grow. Giving an inverted ratio. Its all about risk, reward and win rate
Great channel for beginners in trading! Really enjoyed your video. It was easy to understand! Keep up the good work!👍
Glad you liked it! Thanks Asel👍
Another great video. I haven't read this one but will put it on the list. I just have one pedantic comment though. On the position sizing table where the risks are compared, 200, 500, 1000, I am slightly confused... Shouldn't the "R" number be 1000, 2500, 5000 as that is actually what they are risking with their stops? Or am I missing something? Sorry I may just be being dim.
hi IP, thanks for the feedback, when I get chance i'll take a look👍
Your calculations dont seem to add up. Particularly the 2R/10 = 0.20 Expectancy = $ 0.2 per trade. Can you please clarify. Thanks
Superb video man ! Do you have a group where you discuss markets and opportunities ?
Hi Yuthpati, thanks! I recently started a membership on you tube to discuss opportunites etc. I hope to start Etoro soon so people can follow my portfolio live😉
Trading with a risk/reward ratio of 3:1 or greater creates a positive expectancy for your trades whilst being profitable even when you are wrong 75% of the time.
You don't say!
Once again a great video, takes the nuts and bolts from a book and explains the methodology clearly and concisely. Please keep them coming.
Thanks Graham..
4:50 at system1 the R = 9 .....not 10 so the expectancy would be 0.9. And for me none of the systems are good because it doesn't make sense for me to risk 1$ to make 1$ (at system 1) or to risk 1$ to make 20cents (at system 2)...is a chance for system 1 to be good if you would have a 80% win rate or so. What is unlikely if you don't like to scalp.
fair point👍
Im disappointed in the comments, nobody is talking about the book..
Well I'm gonna be the first:
Yea man Tom Bassos coin experiment sums it all up, the only Holy Grail in trading, playing poker, even starting your own business, is money/risk management.
Without it u're nothing
Spot on Raymond, Thanks for your input 👍
👍
I need more 👛👛👛
I'll try..
i love your videos. really cool. respect
but the amount of advertising in your videos is a bit pain in the ass.
HI Pipo, I understand👍, The research and videos take me a while to complete and the adverts allow for at least some compensation, I hope the value they provide out way the annoyance of them to some degree...
@@FinancialWisdom yes right. Your stuff is worth watching the commercials.
Very valuable. I appreciate that very much. Thanks for your time and for creating the great videos. If your popularity continues to grow, then maybe you can make a product of your own...
let us know...
@Pipo Z Thanks Pipo, Funnily enough I just started a subscription due to the number of people asking the same question :-) th-cam.com/channels/3z9dDPBBClk-9IJJlXuMQg.htmljoin
Al brooks day trading please.
Ill add to the list 👍
The win rate necessary to be profitable with a .2 r/r ratio is crazy high, not gonna be profitable
I bought the book since it had 4.5* on Amazon. Hard to follow content due the luxury of examples and unnecessary descriptions. It is full of noise. The best and more concise chapters are from 12 ongoing. Overall I can call it a waste of time, I cannot even remember the first chapters after reading 400 pages. The author barely made a trade in his lifetime.
I have listened to some of his material Van speaks with authority yet doesnt derive his income from trading but from selling books, tapes & seminars. Dont ever listen to anyone about trading unless their primary business is trading i.e they make 90-100% of their income from trading. If Van really knew psychology, he would be trading the markets & be making a killing, Van the man would rather write books & sell them for $15 than participate in a $85 billion per day market & earn his income from the markets.
Hi 86tibs, hopefully the video made some of the key concepts more digestible? 🙏
I agree 100%
You spoke rightly, but have it at the back of your mind that most trading authors are not traders
Do what you love and love what you do. Some people like talking about the work more than actually doing it. I think we all have learned a lot from professional teachers who weren't necessarily doers. One thing that you said really stood out though was: "Hard to follow content due the luxury of examples and unnecessary descriptions. It is full of noise." Sounds like not the kind of book that I like so thanks a bunch for saving me the time. That's why I really appreciate FW "boiling it down" for us.
would be nice if you don't completely copy the swedish investor's style and have your own
lol. The software they use is the same I use its called videoscribe, same characters etc.
My p0rtfolio is plummeting significantly, I’ve lost about $320k within a few months and I'm not confident about picking st0cks anymore. Are there really no other options for me to gain from the stock market?
Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals.
Very true. Despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately $950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon , and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
Just hodl bitcoin
Cool that you hasnt used a single real chart. so theoretic.. stay off from this video.