The Real Reason China’s Economy Is In Crisis
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 พ.ค. 2024
- China is facing a spiralling debt crisis and a period of deflation which could very well end their 45 years of economic growth and reform.
And there isn’t a simple reason why this is happening, but rather a compounding of policy decisions, unexpected spread of disease, market euphoria, lies and mistakes.
This video includes a history of China's economy, their recent economic problems including the real estate collapse, stock market stagnation and pandemic aftermath, and a deep dive into the current and ongoing debt and deflation crisis in 2024.
TIMESTAMPS
INTRO 0:00
45 YEARS OF GROWTH 1:16
STATE OWNED ENTERPRISE 4:17
CRISIS AFTER CRISIS 5:05
HIDDEN DEBT CRISIS 10:29
DEFLATION SPIRAL 13:47
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Disclaimer:
The information in this video is general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from Hamish Hodder.
Hamish Hodder is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances.
Hamish Hodder is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by use of this video.
There’s no way people are just realizing that China is going through their own 2008 collapse crazy
In fairness the world had a lot on it's plate digging out of supply chain issues from the pandemic and inflation being an issue that was hard to ignore. But you know it's bad when propaganda can no longer paper over the problems.
Its more comparible to the Japanese collapse in the 1990s except Japan was already wealthy when its collapse happened.
It's different from Japan. Japan had to raise value of yen due to plaza accord. China is dropping the value of the yuan and flooding the world with cheap goods. It's basically trade war.
Unless xi and the ccp manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat, China is going down period.
@Jayross3800 - I do think that many people are just realising that China's economy is in a really bad shape. I have expected problems to surface for over 10 years now. That said, I don't think China is close to collapse at all, far from it. A dictatorship has so many ways to manage the situation that democracies simply don't have or would not even have considered using anyway because of the free press. China is very imbalanced but there is much left to develop (where returns are lower). they'll continue at a true 2-4 percent for many more years until the demographic situation forces them into recession. What the officially made up growth figures will be is anyones guess and irrelevant really.
Who would’ve known leveraging excessive debt to fund unsustainable unproductive asset bubbles would lead to total economic collapse.
Australia is headed down the same path with our ponzi housing market.
Every lazy government in almost every country keeps making the same mistakes for short term personal gain.
I've been hearing about Australia's housing market headed for collapse for about thirty years. Glad I didn't listen to people spouting this nonsense.
@@regwatson2017ditto for china 😂
Ummm.... Do you realize that China can end the U.S economy if they decide to cash their USD bonds?
US had its own housing crisis so why didn't China learn?
Australias prices are caused by lack of supply compared to demand, whereas china has so much supply the market is crashing as there is no demand, it was done to keep people in work. conflating the 2 is ridiculous.
You would also do well to mention that they changed the definition of poverty, which also “rescued” millions from officially being defined as living in poverty.
There are a billion people in poverty..
Also forgot internment camps for slave labor and human part stealing.
Thank you! I said the same thing.
So many “researchers” use China’s numbers without question or looking deeper into what those numbers actually mean.
@@Lee-gc6ndfirst, we have different definition for poverty. nowadays almost every chinese people can feed themselves,drink clean water, 24 hour electric supply, and possess a smartphone to enjoy short video and anti us news ,and living wihtin high quality infrastructure even in a small village, besides they have nothing like vote, speech freedom,and they can not afford a car or big house in city. so ccp said no one still in poverty.
@@ruiwang152 yes, China changes their definition of poverty when it suits them. Sure, other countries do similar stat fudging. But no one does it as massively as China, and that is massively dangerous for the Chinese people and the rest of the world
This seems like the worst period.Even the markets are very unpredictable.started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today i am more than 60% down
What bothers me about this situation is the fact that the news and media are all going about a recession which is understandable due to the war and pandemic but still the same media still publish articles about folks in the same economy pulling off hefty 6figure profit
I used to think every investor lose out during recession, meanwhile some make millions. I also thought everybody went out of business during the Great Depression, but some went into business. Bottom line, there's always depression for some, and profit for others, it all starts from having the right mindset
@@belljoe it a loss for the ones who were already in the business since they lose most of their investments and money. its a good timing for the ones who are barely starting since they can buy stocks when they are cheap without losing that much money. they just need to wait until the business goes back up before cashing in.
I can see at least three videos on YT every day about China's economic collapse, and this situation has been ongoing for 20 years!
Those channels stating that China's economic collasping is the same as after a few months into the Ukraine war they post to say that Russia is losing, Russia troops is retreating back to Russia and see what happened to Ukraine today which they lost more than 500 hundred thousand of its people and Russia is still standing strong. All these channels are simply BS and what they post online is just crap.
Bro being honest in this comment section is crazy
Been here in Shanghai since 2010 and while the many clickbait titles like “Collapse of China” are hyperbolic, the golden age is honestly over. Next 20 years will be very tough for China economically even with major reform and we all know Emperor Xi is adverse to that.
Yeappp.. u r absolutely right... china collapse.. bankrupt...20 years already
This is why Chinese always come out on top. In the end.
Stupid people are followers who cannot analyse & think beyond.
I lived in China for 13 years working in finance. One thing I'd like to point out is that the CCP never pulled a billion people out of poverty. That is the CCP spin on what happened. What actually happend was that Mao had his foot on the throats of the people, crushing windpipes and keeping them down. When Mao died, they tried to keep it going with Hau Guofeng (Mao's successor), but the people weren't having it and demanded a reformer. Deng was the guy they were allowed to have. Deng is seen as some sort of hero, but again, it's propaganda. He was no economic genius, he simply let the boot up slightly from the people's throats and the people started setting up businesses and making money in spite of the CCP still crushing windpipes. Jiang Zemin was the real reformer and the real guy that made China grow. He got right off of the necks and let people get off the ground. But still, in no way did the CCP save anyone or do anything positive. It's like saying robber helped a man increase his wealth by not robbing him as often. Is the robber an economic genius that pulled that household out of poverty? Lol. Don't help spread the CCP's baloney narrative. You're new to it, it's no offence to you not knowing it. Nice video keep going with it.
Truth
I am sure u never lived in China for 13 years. Something u make it up and your story
Another clowd talking nonsense. OPEN YOUR EYES>
Not entirely true.
It's probably true that China's people are unusually industrious compared to other countries, but it's still remarkable how quickly the Chinese economy developed, and the resulting benefits to the population. Mao's Cultural Revolution intended a leveling of society that eliminated all social and economic classes, "re-educating" the intellectual elite to work in the fields. Until China's "opening" beginning in 1978, China was a 3rd world agrarian subsistence society. The academic institutions were destroyed and there was no industry. It's from that as a starting point that China today is the #2 global economy as measured in GDP (which is a measurement of economic activity, not productivity) and somewhere between 1/3-1/2 of the population no longer is living off subsistence farming.
I don't know of another period in history where up to 1/8 of the global population has been lifted into a middle class standard of living typical of many developed countries in 35-45 years... Typically that kind of transition can take centuries. The CCP should take some credit for that. How much might be arguable but it's hard for any large group of people to get on the same page without leadership.
1.4 billion people with 98% approval rating of CCP says differently. Who needs market economy when you got Mao's Little Red Book and Xi Jingping Thoughts.
Great content; subscribed.
Complex analysis, Thanks for posting this video.
Whenever I see an absolute value such as X billions lost value without any mention of percentage, I immediately start to suspect that it is meant to sound worse than it really is.
In this case you can assume that it is worse than it sounds. That said, I agree that there are numerous ways in which data can be spun. Imagine a crash in the Dow today of 100 points, it's a daily fluctuation, back in the late twenties it would have been a major crash.
Including this video too😂
So are the words "real reason", "how big", "what you don't know", etc.
Think about it, china been on the rise since 80s and usa cant handle competition. Its propaganda, they say its been in decline for years. Dont you think it would be declined by now??
enforcing communism is a suicidal acts against free market or capitalism!
Deflation is not the problem.
The crash of an astronomical housing bubble, unrivaled by anything from history, has popped.
People have not stopped consuming because they are saving.
That would be positive news.
People have stopped consuming because they are servicing their loans.
The housing market is gone.
Second hand prices has reduced by more than 90%.
We are talking about a housing market, able to populate more than 400 million households, owned by 100 million middle class households or worse.
It is illegal in China to default on your loans.
There is no way for your average person to go bankrupt.
So the middle class of China is paying of their loans instead of consuming.
while losing the jobs that they need to pay those loans. It's a death spiral.
What you described is called balance sheet recession and is the same thing that Japan went through. The issue with balance sheet recession is that it causes deflation. Deflation makes it impossible for a country to recover as its a self-enforcing cycle. Chinese are in for a difficult time.
Then why do chinese banks have no money?
The bubble already popped. The government is stepping in to stabilize (but not allowing it to go up). All because Xi says housing is to live in. Going forward housing and stock will no longer be a driver of growth for China. All growth will come from manufacturing.
Where is the data that property values have dropped 90%? This sounds completely made up along with your statement about being illegal to default
Great job on this
After 45yrs of continously break neck growth, the country demographic changes and family economical profile also changes significantly. Hence, existing model of endless economic growth path cannot be continued
It is good to have a realignment China new growth priorities. But any changes out of comfort zone will be painful for any human, even for prudential Chinese. Japan 30yrs of experience is a good case study for China, the key is how China can borrow Japan experience and create something that suit China
Can't. It can't because CHina will do what Xi says. He is one man that has the power. It never ends good for countries.
Besides, it was not him who was responsible for tremendous growth, it was someone else
@@Shineinpoverty 中国要转型是要经历一些痛苦的 中国不像美国人可以去杀印第安人，去掠夺他们的资源 中国还要每天担心美国统治全球的野心
I only have anecdotal information about various relatives of my Chinese friends who live in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzen, and they have seen their respective real estate property values plunge tremendously. At least one of them was preparing to sell a large home they have in a high-rise tower, but the real estate market is in crisis and they are no longer considering selling it.
As it should. They are deliberately deflating their real estate market in a controlled fashion to avoid their version of the Great Recession. Whatever is happening in China doesn't compare to the 2008 Great Recession.
I have friends in China.. chinese people 40-50 yrs age group.... they played the lets get rich like americans game, spurred on by the chinese govt programs and local officials..... now they are shitting their pants and their wealth is diminishing fastttttt and they are scared to talk about it. They have secret meetings where they talk and vent their frustrations... They are terrified of the CCP.
The same has happened in Lanzhou. Realestate has come down however but peo0le are not buying either. People have lost jobs. Even population growth has stalled. Not good for China.
@@anthonywilson38and all this Economy crisis is thanks to Russia 😢
@@anthonywilson38population growth has more than stalled.. part of the reason for the chinese miracle is the fact that the fertility rate crashed decades ago. It's called the demographic dividend
thanks for the effort ! please share your understanding of how this can influence Australia
U can only hide dirt for so long under the rug until it becomes too obvious. The nature of hiding the truth really comes out in the most inconvenient way.
Exactly there’s too much dirt(corruption/slavelabor) China has been hiding for years this could almost be predicted after Covid
Great dive. Thx.
Can you do one on the USA's state of the economy? I would love to hear what your thoughts are.
美国经济很危险，34万亿债务，中东被伊朗打的破烂不堪😂
The US’s stock is all time high.. unemployment rate is still low..inflation is still high, but kinda under control..so don’t think much to talk about
USA is showing economic growth of a emerging country in their prime.
Its simply impossible.
Agree . . . China's infrastructure more better than USA. This writter should focus on USA's subway, homeless, inflation, bad infrastructures, criminal rate, etc. This video is bias and unfair
@@MrK-js3it US inflation is kinda great when we compare to the people south of them but for the US its pretty much a kinda bad situation xd
basically its even worse than what we think because chinese culture of saving face means they will post stats which are better than they actually are. which is terrifying considering the stats arent very good
The Biden administration does this regularly. "We successfully brought down gas prices and inflation under my watch!" says Biden often. Yet overall prices are MUCH higher now than when Biden took office and continue to increase, just at a slightly lower inflation rate than the previous year. Whenever gas prices spike upwards, he goes silent or blames "Putin".
never trust CCP
Correct. Westerners do not understand that other cultures do not think or act like us. Kissinger was dead wrong. Bluntly, he threw a lifesaver to a drowning CCP, which damaged worldwide economies by aggressive unfair competition. This kept the CCP afloat so it could continue its control over it's people. Wrong, but don't expect the enlightened academics who write soft histories to reach that conclusion.
Yes that's true. Independent research shows that their GDP is actually ca 40% of what they report.
Also they didn't rise people out of poverty, they redefined what poverty means.
Yes that's true. Independent research shows that their GDP is actually ca 40% of what they report.
Also they didn't rise people out of poverty, they redefined what poverty means.
High quality analysis !
Very informative thanks, 👍
Always good to hear your opinion on these sorts of things.
This is a real in depth sharing of knowledge regarding China's situation at the moment. Learned, and enjoyed a lot. You earned a subscriber. Thank you for uploading.
I appreciate your hard work on this, subscribed
China is ranked second highest country holds US foreign treasury after Japan. Every country has its challenges, good or bad, the leader of the country will need to figure out what to do. China is like US, US has gone through recessions but US survived. Remember the times that everyone was buying multiple houses in the US? If China economy collapsed, it will impact globally. We all should be worried! Let’s pray!
They weren't "pulled" out of poverty. They were left alone, and they prospered. Reversing this to control again will crush the people, and the economy
just a figure of speech, I agree :)
What about the speculation though? Seems like that's not great either..Should it just be ignored?@@HamishHodder
@@HamishHoddersounds like more than a figure of speech. It's almost the opposite of what happened
Nope. It all depends on how poverty is defined. The CCP used an absurdly small level of household earnings. Hundreds of millions never left poverty, perhaps as many as 1 billion remained functionally poor. The CCP achieved nothing but self-enrichment. China is basically 300 million haves and 1,000 million have-nots. Yes, the population is only 1.3 billion. The CCP has been lying about it for at least 10 years.
you are following the trend and believes what the news are saying! you have changed @@HamishHodder
What platform was used for the analysis at 11:21?
@hamish may be helpful if u can do a vid comparing US n China's debt ?
Easy
Usa is under chinese debt
Well presented.
I have been hearing this since 2000, they manage well it seems
no no i chinaman and sum ting wong
GDP can be very misleading. Especially when countries are obsessed with hitting a number and “cook the books” in order to prop it up.
When looking at investment, I’m sure there is a massive amount of unaccounted government spending that has been hidden.
One does not build an entire nations infrastructure in 20 years without it.
They don't tell the truth 😊 that's because they are communist 😊
GDP is only a good indicator when it reflects well on your favored political party. Any other time, it's an incomprehensible figure you're just not educated enough to understand. I learned this from Facebook.
only when it s controllable, not from some bragging@@orionred2489
China is facing issues at 5.2% growth but usa is robust growth at 1.9% 😂😂😂 sure kid
@@zacksmith5644 oh goodness Zach… if you think their growth numbers are reflective of their current performance, you are sadly mistaken.
There are several under-lying issues that will not only stagnate China (very similar to what Japan experienced in the early 90’s,) but most likely far worse.
National Deficit spending is not bad if the spending is direct towards pertinent infrastructures and human capital investments
You have not dug enough, the US debt ceiling is increasing constantly and is adding $1 trillion every 100 days and it's scary 😢😢😢😢
You are aware that we live in a Debt based system, all growth is Debt based. It depends on who creates the debt as to whether it is a real problem for the economy.
The real estate boom was a feature, not a bug. They overshot the mark and didn't diversify.
It's important to note that China reducing poverty to 0.7% was talking about *"EXTREMEC* poverty.
Extreme poverty is people living under $1.90 a day, so that's saying that most people now live off more than $57 a month.... that's it.
Poverty in general is still alive & well in China.
In usa poverty is ignored
How is the US and EU economy doing - any better? What about the Russian economy? And how does the debt of China compare to the US debt ?
Oh the US is fucked too, they’re rolling out the money printer so they can pay their debt payments right now.
Excuse me for saying, so,“thank you“…. thank you for the information, although it is scary, it gives me a view of what is really happening in the world today, and fees, me more information, and I thank you for your work, keep them coming.
I'd like to know the true wealth of countries ajusted for debt. This would be a far more honest view of "wealth" or size of an economy.
Most bug economies have debt to gdp around 75 to 120 percent. But sovereign debt is a lot different than household debt, because countries have so much more leverage than an individual. A better but more complicated Stat is your return on that debt, ie are you taking out loans to expand your economy well or taking out loans to cover the last loan
Imagine using the USA in your honest view.
@@jaimhaas5170it would be doing incredibly well actually. There is a website that tracks all US debt and assets and you can see the stat for assets growing SIGNIFICANTLY faster than debt meaning that the longer the US exists in its current state the smaller the debt proportional to its economy.
I had a very very casual interest in chinas economy with shows like China uncensored but I never really paid a ton of attention, my minor interest was spurred by claims China would supplant the USA. Around 2007/2008 I started getting into economics and the stock market and fueled by my new interest I really started deep diving into China and how their economy and country operated. The more that I learned about how China worked culturally, economically, and politically the more I became convinced China was trying to build a skyscraper on a rotting and deteriorating foundation and that it was only a matter of time before it all came crashing down. I’m no financial expert, I’m not some genius level guy, I’m just a regular dude who had a passing interest. My assessment means nothing and holds no value it’s merely personal opinion. I just couldn’t see how a stable and long term economy could operate the way China’s does. That said I also couldn’t understand how any westerner would do business with China or invest with China when China seems to be actively sabotaging and stealing from western businesses and scamming westerners in general and actively lying about the state of affairs to a scale that’s hard to fathom. Again just my opinion, for what it’s worth I hope it’s not as bad as I personally think it is otherwise I genuinely and truly fear for the regular Chinese citizen, I have no wish to see people suffer
China uncensored is a cult channel running by falungong. I am a chinese and I am not optimistic about China's economy in the future either. But when I predict and understand China's economy in the future, I will choose more reputable data and reports.
Mate, it is true. China will crash, along with its own demographic crisis now same as Western countries with no total open capitalism needed for the recovery. Beware neighbours.
AUD will suffer. I am Aussie.
Make sure you own land with water that produces food within 10 years.
You should convince the US government that CN is not worth mentioning and is about to collapse. I would be very grateful to you
Cool, China has been collapsing for 30 years, and become the No .2 economy in the world, to be honest, 30 years ago, China was No. 1 economy in global. how come China get fuked up so quickly? there is no doubt that China has been printing Yan for over 30 years, and finally China finance debt is coming to an end because its national debt reached 34 trillion dollars and many other nations starts to dump Yan and this process is so fast and everyone is worried.
no matter how bad it was 1 billion customer meant money for simple buisness peoples
Excellent! I found this information on China’s economy to be one of the best I’ve seen and this includes Bloomberg, CNN and Fox Business. Great work!
Excellent summary...thanks
Only thing you’re missing on the thumbnail “in 22 days”.
😂😂
Garbage report: garbage in, garbage out. 😂 it is for the dumbs out there, the smart ones know what is going on.
One of their issues results from wanting the benefits of the "free market" with the control of their political system which results in - internal corruption, business which should have failed being allowed to continue and covering up any bad news. Like a person who starts lying to hide things, it can get way out of control....
Spot on. It's way worse than that. This is a country where local officials will paint fields green so they look productive for the satelllite images that the CCP is going to see later. Everything is based on lies and deception and telling people what they want to hear.
You say this as if political corruption isn't absolutely rife in our countries too...
@@ChattyCinnamon Sure it happens in the west. Just it’s much more control in China
@@ChattyCinnamon There's levels to corruption.
democracy do not tell me how many babies I am allowed. or I have to pay mortgage for an invisible condo.
Great investigative video! very interesting. Please keep an eye on this and report as things change inside the Chinese economy-- it seems like tings are starting to happen fast over there.
Fantastic video.
In purchasing power the Chinese economy is already 1.7 times larger than the US. GDP in ppp is more accurate. There is no need to keep on comparing GDP in USD when you do not trade in USD as China does.
You're spot-on in terms of China's growth was fueled by debt. For the past 2 decades, most grand infrastructure projects in China were all just facades to attract foreign investment.
Another gigantic debt bubble is China's national railway. Look into it & you'll be even more shocked.
At least the debt is backed by real assets… unlike the US, backed by rusty aircraft carriers😂 you can ship something to 2000 miles away and get it the same day with the price cheaper than a regular UPS shipping in the US. Think about the business opportunities that opens up. And that is just one tiny aspect
Hmmm .. at least China's growth involves real physical manufacturing and infrastructure. Even if China can't repay debts, they still have real assets that they built up. Our US growth are mostly paper growth... we can't even sell that when we can't repay our debts. Our growth is just a figure on the computer screen.
China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Dude I'm not speaking for the US, I'm from Taiwan, I don't really care about the US national debt, although your bond system is objectively slightly better than China's, that's why people across the world are still buying.
Many businesses from my country had already pulled out their investment from China.
If you still have faith in China be my guest & invest your money or buy their bonds. It's just people who had experience with China aren't doing that anymore.
Why do tawain people act like their exocite asian @@ericduan19
Very insightful and well-delivered.
China is Collapsing Vol. 2024
😁😁😁😁😄😄😄😄😄😄😄😄😄😃😃😃lol. The best answer here. Exactly. Next year, it will be Vol. 2025.
We are witnessing the collapse of a broken system in real time.
These videos have been around for years and still no collapse… but great video mate
I heard about Evergrande crushing for a fairly long time. Well, it did eventually.
I wonder if China follows the path, but also slowly.
I think this is your best as well. Very useful information!
One thing you overlooked was the effect of printing money yo cover debt in relation to its main source of income...trade and the declining manufacturing base due to plants being moved to other countries.
I see more youtubers saying collapse, yet each time with a different prediction of when it will happen
It’s clearly just propaganda against China. Deep down Americans fear China. And to denigrate them is the only way Americans can feel better about their own woeful situation.
It's as if they're autonomous individuals with their own opinions right?
CHINESE, JAPENESE DIRTY KNEES TWO OF THESE!....
@@cc23001 it's to make sure the Chinese bots remain irritated as always.
The point is COLLAPSE.. formulate a personal plan.. Food Fuel Firearms in that order...
China will be fine. I believe in about 15 years from now, China will be leading in most fields, science, tech, education, engineering, ...
他們付給你的錢好嗎？
@@chewbslolkek6474 好啊。人民币，很香！
That is your opinion. Data doesn’t show that.
@@fm-9129 on line search "China leading US in technology race in all but a few fields, think-tank finds"
@@fm-9129 now China is leading in 37 of 44 technologies tracked...
Good job, H.
Thank you
So if the government is simply able to print money to reduce the debt obligations of state owned enterprises, what’s the problem? How much inflationary pressure is likely to occur in an economy that’s already in a deflationary spiral?. Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
Aussie expat in china here. Great video
Curious if you think that recent rally in Tech is due to large investors moving what they DID have in Chinese equities back into US markets.
Thank you for making this video.
Good explanation. I am a person from china. I totally agree with your point about China economy and deflation. You have a good economic outlook!
America is gradually moving away from trade with China. Vietnam and South Korea. And the Philippines. You can see the labels on the things we buy. Of course we trade with Japan.
Thank you. Very well done.
I was on the collapse train during the initial Evergrande issues.
It does seem like China is headed for collapse, but they seem to keep chugging along in spite of all of the bad debt issues that they have had for many years. 🤷♂️
I dont think "collapse" can truly happen for an economic giant. They will keep chugging along simply based on all their investments.
Can I get the music from the intro please
Thank you for such a detailed and broad analysis
Really helpful
😂 Next time say thank ypu for lies about China
I live here and it is alarming how quickly attitude here has gone from China is unstoppable to China is doomed. I’m genuinely shocked how quickly it has happened. People here have become so pessimistic.
It's because of the CCP. A more free China where the Chinese people's ideas and potential was unlocked, instead of oppressed and controlled, would not be doomed. Yes, there would be challenges such as unfavorable demographics, but many countries are facing that challenge and doing better than China. China will never thrive long term under the CCP.
Since it is all debt to the state , policy changes should easily turn the table around
This is very interesting
Thanks Hamish.
Isn’t it the time to buy like in 2009 still deep in a recession is when the market bottoms? Will see if plays out. What do you all think?
Nope. China isn’t coming back.
In China, your investments can be taken away without any meaningful due process. Hence the massive outflow of capital from the country. Everyone, including many CCP officials, are pulling their money out of China. So you can invest and even make some money, but it will be impossible to pull it out of China.
Be greedy when others fearful
The US government has accumulated a huge amount of debt as well. Similarly, Japan has been struggling with its public debts and intractable deflation.
Yeah but for the USA, we literally own the money printing press. And as long as the US administration pays the interest rate on it’s loans, the situation is hardly dramatic. And remember, most other countries’ debt is in USD. And USD is the standard for most big finance transactions, like the oil industry etc. The trillions dollar debt of the US should certainly not lead to complacency, but if the billionaires paid their fair share, the US could quickly start balancing their books. As long as moron MAGA vote for Trump, that won’t happen though.
They can pay the debt😊 that's the difference 😊
US can "pay", how about Japan ?@@malcolmbirkett1347
Do your facts come from a cereal box? US cannot and will not repay their debts@@malcolmbirkett1347
The US GDP to debt ratio is not actually that bad. Debt added vs growth added sits at around 120% YTY. Which isn't perfect but is far from the serious problem so many think it is (mostly whoever is the political opposition party at the time, and notice as soon as they get into power suddenly they stop talking about it).
Further, US Market cap sits comfortably at 51 trillion which massively outstrips the roughly 34 trillion in debt. But the real way that accountants and debtors view the rconomy is in TOTAL debt, including private, versus TOTAL production including all finished products and capital in an economy.
When we do that, we see just how titan the US is, and how healthy it is.
Total economic value of $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
Truly colossal economy. By comparison, I don't have numbers I trust on China's economy... but by ALL accounts, far smaller and far more lopsided. It's what happens when you try to rapidly industrialize, educate, but also oppress, over a billion people for so long.
How about the rest of the countries which have lower GDP growth rate?
Regarding the poverty numbers in China: The Chinese threshold for poverty has been lowered more and more over the years, contrary to inflation, making it appear as if they were highly successful in reducing poverty.
Look at the Homeless issues in US and Canada and UK. Go check out China on Homelessness. The Chinese government address such issues but government in the West do not bother.
Can you provide a source on this? Doesn’t sound right
That’s completely incorrect.
@@jackb616 He's 100% correct. Watch a few interviews with Michael Pettis for a deep dive into China. He's utterly brilliant.
All the best.
If you have 1 pork chops you are not poor😊
Most people write timetamps as TIME, then description:
00:00 INTRO
01:16 45 YEARS OF GROWTH
04:17 STATE OWNED ENTERPRIS
05:05 CRISIS AFTER CRISIS
10:29 HIDDEN DEBT CRISIS
13:47 HIDDEN DEBT CRISIS
I don't think it matters.
It's actually better his way, you should have a wee think why before being a Karen
It's actually better his way, you should have a wee think why before being a Karen
It's actually better his way, you should have a wee think why before being a Karen
It's actually better his way, you should have a wee think why before being a Karen
great vid
Thank you !
I really appreciate this video, thank you.
More than 20 years and still harping the same tune.
Great video, liked and subbed 👍
One of the most comment In single TH-cam video! Well done
It hasn't collapsed, and people have been saying it for years.
I am from China and I have to say things really went wrong since 2020, and the economy didn’t recover a lot from pandemic though it is over.
@@danyixiao9469 the world is a mess. usa is built on debt also (don't forget the dollar is backed by nothing)
@@danyixiao9469 All countries are the same, just look at the export data of the major exporting countries in recent years to know that global demand is declining!
@@danyixiao9469 yes magically all the haters against China are from China now, yeah dude.
"but this time it's for realzies, I swear!!!"
Welcome to the party. Watch China Update with Tony and he gives economic and socio/political analysis.
Peter Zeihan's book, The End is just the Beginning! Very informative..
😂😂😂😂😂 good joke
It started with the INABILITY TO FOSTER GOOD RELATIONSHIP AMONG COUNTRIES. When investors pullout their interests, it result to unemployment and economic loss. Factories (money maker) will be relocated.
Not mentioned but very important is that they have passed espionage laws that are vague, and basically any foreigner can be arrested at any time for any reason for espionage. China has a 99% conviction rate, and is basically lawless, where foreigners have no legas recourse. So if you are a foreigner, it is time to leave. No foreign companies want to invest in China with this climate. All new western factories are being built else where.
Yup. One big red prison camp.
We should have never entered a Communist Country
All white stop retiring in asia go retire in your own country
My ex-wife from an Eastern Bloc country said that she knew people with PhD's driving taxi's for a living because of the economic collapse post the Soviet Union collapse. That condition persisted from about 1991 to about 2005 when the EU started to make investments in her country.
China might just be looking at both a lost Decade or Two and a Lost Generation of workers. Not only will the demographic collapse be bad, just because of the One Child Policy, but it will be twice worse because of the Three Red Lines Policy that was the start of the collapse of the Property sector.
They could be selling their military hardware very cheaply to Russia, India, Pakistan and North Korea soon. Remember all those pictures of the Russian' Baltic Fleet or their Black Sea Fleet sitting at port rusting away, and nuclear weapons sites being left unguarded because the Government stopped paying the soldiers salaries?
In the West, there in no long term plan like a 5 years or 10 years or more economic plan. Totally no plan. Just fight for the rights to govern the people for personal gain be it material or political orientation. Go take a look at the Global South Countries whether Democratic or Socialistic and see how they have developed. With the help of China these Global South Countries are going to develop at a much faster pace.
Your comparing soviet economy to a country with a 13 trillion dollar economy 😂😂😂 delulu from tegulu
Hearing the collapse of China for decades from the Western world. I guess they just never get the timing right. 😂😂 Keep guessing.
@@youarebeingtrolled6954
They are very different, but there are legit compatison. Unlike Russia, China is also very resource import dependent. Things like liquid fuels, fertilizer, food, and many products they need to build or assemble for their exports.
China is in for a world of hurt.
lol, dream on!
Good work !
The situation is well manageable. The country is still having the most billionaire's in the world. Making big profits is not about short-term visions but the long-term patience.
Why was GDP in power parity never taken seriously ?
Especially since GDP in PPP is better than nominal GDP for comparing the economies of different countries.
What does Mao or these historical lines have to do with possible Chinese economic problems today?
Was your research conducted in english only?
This is a great point! Most likely research was U.S articles created to manipulate markets, etc.
why you thing some ting wong?
the confidence on government is the most important factor.
that sounds very chinese/chinglish lol sounds like sum ting wong
can you please do a similar analysis on India's debt to gdp ratio
3:57 voice over reads 0.7% but text read 0.3%; which one is it?
Why does the video quality look sooooooo bad?
You need glasses. That’s why.
@@staleofte3309 maybe your boyfriend knows you're gay?
@@kylekorona Oh he knows. And so will you. Just turn around and bend over, dear.
When Tom Friedman at the New York Times praised the "China Model," I took it as a leading indicator that its economy would hit the wall in a decade or so. A centralized "Industrial Policy" can work well in the "catch-up" phase of economic development. If it proceeds too long, it becomes the" ketchup phase," with lots of blood on the market floors as various bubbles burst.
In the 1980s I thought Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI -- rip) was going to prove me wrong until, quite suddenly, it didn't. A few days ago Japan's stock market hit a new high, breaking the record set in...1989. And that's thanks to the capital fleeing China and looking for a home.
As a result of the Cultural Revolution, the CCP was on its back in 1980. That is a big reason why "Socialism with Chinese Crony-Capitalism Characteristics" could succeed as long as it did -- with a big helping hand from Walmart, Amazon, and Wall Street. Now that the Giant has awakened, they need to knock it over the head again if they want to get back on the growth track.
Not to mention that China choose ideology over economy - China through it's puppets Russia and Iran is trying to destroy the old world order in order to replace it with the new totalitarian world order where resources will be controlled by China and her puppets.
This is why Putin is so eager to destabilize Europe and possibly the USA, his goal is to topple NATO and to topple the "Bretton Wood Dollar" as a reserve currency. China and Russia's wet dream is the disappearance of Dollar
The Giant isn't, and never was. Every stat was bleached, laundered and cooked by the CCP. Fraud on a national scale.
How can China be the only challenger to US if their system is so weak?
Why US doesn't worry about India if their system is better?
@@tasreasfatemsa8266 India is much much earlier in their development phase. Just be patient and wait, India will certainly be a challenger one day
China in 2008 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 1st homes in their cities
By 2018 around 70% of the people in their real estate markets were buying their 2nd and 3rd homes in their cities
That’s why you are hearing about problems with their property developers these days. Because back in 2010? Their Central Government started cutting of money flow to these developers.
Thus why you heard about Shadow Banks and Underground Economy back then, that their Government had to come into to shutdown or regulate.
Even then, It took them almost 14 years to get their overheated real estate under control
Heck they were about to introduce a nation wide property tax, but then trump started the trade war in 2018
Why is their Central Government doing this?
Because there are still a few hundred million poorer rural folk they still expect to move to the cities to join their more well off urban city folk countrymen.
Problem is these property developers were building higher end homes, and not building the affordable homes these rural migrants will need
In China
Owning a home in the city you migrate to? Affects your employment, heath, education and even marriage prospects
Thus the common prosperity push and the crackdown on the overt displays of wealth in China
Their Government probably figured out you disenfranchise the people at the bottom of your society they are the ones most likely to act out in protest
Thanks for the info, I really appreciate it!
Excellent
I've heard the same story again and again will it finally be true this time? 🤞
but have to say sum ting wong
Bro please read about USA as well. The debt to gdp ratio of more than 120% percent should not go unnoticed and a deeper analysis like you did for China in this video is also highly warranted for USA.
The US is a much wealthier country with a national income per capita more than 5 times that of China. If you're wealthier, you can afford to handle more debt. Not saying that the US shouldn't be worried about its debt, but it's not nearly the danger that a lot of the fear mongering suggests it is.
It's different when the USD is TRUSTED as the world's reserve currency. India had an issue with Russia where they had too much rupees - and it slowed down the purchase of it.
your government tells you how many babies you are allow. do you pay mortgages on invisible properties.
Hey heard that US economy is headed for a hard landing. All the best guys with all the de dollarisation going on in the world.