I'm new to doing EPs, although I understand them perfectly. Agree about the IO strategy being flawed. A thing I tried today to get on more horses was to start with the high implied odds, regardless of rating. I would just adjust my stakes to get around a £1 ql per horse (not going very big yet). Then when I had coverd quite a few horses, I'd go to some closer matched but low IO horses so that if any of my previous horses don't hit, this one can cover all the losses. If nothing hits, the ql from the last horse or 2 would be negligible. This did work for me today at Cheltenham. Hit a big win on two races. And on another, hit a small win, but it got wiped out by ql from other horses. If I had not gone for that bet at the end, the losses would have been higher. Only part I went wrong is when I was in a hurry to place bets and didn't keep track of the ql and went over my acceptable loss per race and didn't hit anything either.
In my experience the IO strategy, although flawed, does actually play out in the real world once you factor in game theory and the chaos element. If the odds were an accurate reflection of the quality of horses was a definitive measure then the horses would finish in the order of their odds, but more than once I’ve seen horses in the 30+ range win the race. A horse that isn’t expected to win and runs a steady race has a decent chance of placing. A horse expected to win who races aggressively has a higher chance of making a costly mistake.
So I get what you are saying about PA not having the right method to use implied odds but I still don't know how you use implied odds in your strategy. You say you jump on as soon as you see value but how are you working out the value
Liam - good vid. do you have any thoughts about arbing part of your place stake in the 4 place market (or 5 place market if paying 2 extra places) which can in effect significantly reduce the ql and in some instances make it risk free. obviously the potential profit will be reduced but was wondering if you have explored this avenue.
Great vid Liam. Is the following understanding correct interpretation: You said, I think, that implied odds represent the number of times you need to bet to expected break-even value. So if someone bets 5 times at exactly 20.00% implied probality then break-even should occur after around five such bets?
No, that's not quite right. The implied odds are a sort of proxy measure for the number of times a horse would need to finish in the extra place in order to break even. So, if a horse has implied odds of 20 we need it to come in the extra-place just once in 20 times (or just 5% of the time) in order to break even. Implied odds of 4 would mean we need the horse to come in the extra-place once in 4 times (or 25% of the time) in order to break even. So, you can see, having 20 chances to break even is better than having just 4 chances.
Hi Cathy The imp odds are simply derived from QL and potential EP profit from the extra place that you are getting on. Focusing on getting a high match rating and a low QL will provide large imp odds
looking at starting MB, one question i have with EP is what happens if the horse doesn't finish in the extra places? Is it required to finish in the places 2/3/4 in order to win? Can it finish in any place?
Should do Alex, there's some good money in it especially for a side hustle. Generally, with extra places you are looking for the horse to land in one specific position, for example, let's say 4th. This works as you would back the win and each way with the bookie which would cover the first 4 places in this example, you would then lay the horse to win and then you would also place a second lay bet on the exchange for the horse to place. The place lay bet on the exchange normally covers one place less than what the bookmaker is paying out on with their each-way places, so for in this example the place lay would be 3 places. If the horse lands in the specific position you will earn a large profit, if it doesn't you will take a small qualifying loss. I've got some videos on my channel which will go into this in more detail, feel free to check them out mate.
@@ProfitPineapple Ive been binge watching your videos for the past few days. I have a good understanding of match betting, but the ep was confusing me. Your accent sounds like your just down the east lancs from me ;). Awesome videos, ive subbed and watched your tutorial on the website too.
Hey mate, got around £750 from sign ups, I feel like I’m done after them as I don’t know what’s next to do? Most reloads are bet 5/10 x £ to get £10 acca bet or £5 acca bet. Any help please?
Hi mate, Good stuff that’s a nice start to your matched betting journey. There are loads of things you can be doing to earn money each week, check out the video I uploaded recently about getting the most value from your oddsmonkey account which will dive into them. I would also recommend starting on the 2up offer and start scaling up your stakes once you get comfortable with it.
Yep it’s just another guide that you can use on the matcher, of course if the imp odds are extremely high, your QL was very small and the EP profit was large its highly likely to be positive EV although it isn’t quantifiable with the data on the extra place matcher.
I'm new to doing EPs, although I understand them perfectly. Agree about the IO strategy being flawed.
A thing I tried today to get on more horses was to start with the high implied odds, regardless of rating. I would just adjust my stakes to get around a £1 ql per horse (not going very big yet). Then when I had coverd quite a few horses, I'd go to some closer matched but low IO horses so that if any of my previous horses don't hit, this one can cover all the losses. If nothing hits, the ql from the last horse or 2 would be negligible.
This did work for me today at Cheltenham. Hit a big win on two races. And on another, hit a small win, but it got wiped out by ql from other horses. If I had not gone for that bet at the end, the losses would have been higher.
Only part I went wrong is when I was in a hurry to place bets and didn't keep track of the ql and went over my acceptable loss per race and didn't hit anything either.
Always learn something new watching your videos, keep it up
Cheers Owen, appreciate it mate
In my experience the IO strategy, although flawed, does actually play out in the real world once you factor in game theory and the chaos element.
If the odds were an accurate reflection of the quality of horses was a definitive measure then the horses would finish in the order of their odds, but more than once I’ve seen horses in the 30+ range win the race.
A horse that isn’t expected to win and runs a steady race has a decent chance of placing. A horse expected to win who races aggressively has a higher chance of making a costly mistake.
So I get what you are saying about PA not having the right method to use implied odds but I still don't know how you use implied odds in your strategy. You say you jump on as soon as you see value but how are you working out the value
Liam - good vid. do you have any thoughts about arbing part of your place stake in the 4 place market (or 5 place market if paying 2 extra places) which can in effect significantly reduce the ql and in some instances make it risk free. obviously the potential profit will be reduced but was wondering if you have explored this avenue.
Nice one mate.
Explained well in everyday language I can understand. Or am I now an MB geek already? 👍
Not a problem, thanks for watching Terry, glad it helped!
Great vid Liam. Is the following understanding correct interpretation: You said, I think, that implied odds represent the number of times you need to bet to expected break-even value. So if someone bets 5 times at exactly 20.00% implied probality then break-even should occur after around five such bets?
No, that's not quite right. The implied odds are a sort of proxy measure for the number of times a horse would need to finish in the extra place in order to break even.
So, if a horse has implied odds of 20 we need it to come in the extra-place just once in 20 times (or just 5% of the time) in order to break even. Implied odds of 4 would mean we need the horse to come in the extra-place once in 4 times (or 25% of the time) in order to break even. So, you can see, having 20 chances to break even is better than having just 4 chances.
Hi Liam, as a rule of thumb i heard to look for IOs >20. Which ballpark would you suggest? I rarely ever find IOs that high
Hi Cathy
The imp odds are simply derived from QL and potential EP profit from the extra place that you are getting on.
Focusing on getting a high match rating and a low QL will provide large imp odds
looking at starting MB, one question i have with EP is what happens if the horse doesn't finish in the extra places? Is it required to finish in the places 2/3/4 in order to win? Can it finish in any place?
Should do Alex, there's some good money in it especially for a side hustle. Generally, with extra places you are looking for the horse to land in one specific position, for example, let's say 4th. This works as you would back the win and each way with the bookie which would cover the first 4 places in this example, you would then lay the horse to win and then you would also place a second lay bet on the exchange for the horse to place. The place lay bet on the exchange normally covers one place less than what the bookmaker is paying out on with their each-way places, so for in this example the place lay would be 3 places. If the horse lands in the specific position you will earn a large profit, if it doesn't you will take a small qualifying loss. I've got some videos on my channel which will go into this in more detail, feel free to check them out mate.
@@ProfitPineapple Ive been binge watching your videos for the past few days. I have a good understanding of match betting, but the ep was confusing me.
Your accent sounds like your just down the east lancs from me ;).
Awesome videos, ive subbed and watched your tutorial on the website too.
@@Alex8OBeck Cheers mate that’s much appreciated, and yeah could very well be, I’m In Wigan so I’m not too far from the Lancs haha!
Hey mate, got around £750 from sign ups, I feel like I’m done after them as I don’t know what’s next to do? Most reloads are bet 5/10 x £ to get £10 acca bet or £5 acca bet. Any help please?
Hi mate,
Good stuff that’s a nice start to your matched betting journey.
There are loads of things you can be doing to earn money each week, check out the video I uploaded recently about getting the most value from your oddsmonkey account which will dive into them.
I would also recommend starting on the 2up offer and start scaling up your stakes once you get comfortable with it.
was just thinking why the maths you did was about 0.25 out ..... commission :)
So basically a higher implied odd is not a positive EV ?
Yep it’s just another guide that you can use on the matcher, of course if the imp odds are extremely high, your QL was very small and the EP profit was large its highly likely to be positive EV although it isn’t quantifiable with the data on the extra place matcher.
@@ProfitPineapple thank man ! I’m asking cause I do matched betting outside UK and Europe. I’m limited by how many bookies I can use and I can