As a statistician who enjoys basketball , my answer would be shooting has obviously gotten better , but they’re taking these difficult shots at higher volumes
Eye bags aren’t from lack of sleep. It’s from smiling that causes a crease above your cheeks just like you get creases on the sides of your mouth. Plus the skin under the eye is way more sensitive and soft so that part tends to crease up faster
@bobbyw1074 based on the context of JJ saying "that's a good question, one of the reasons...," I'm quite confident that the beginning of his question got cut off by the editor of this reel.
I recognize the voice as David Locke, the radio voice of the Utah Jazz. I think he's really good at his job. He dives very deep in his analysis of the game and makes for a really interesting listen.
JJ’s face lights up when he gets to talk about something other than the Lakers taking beating after beating. It’s good to see him get excited about something 😅
@@marcusaurelius5149they played the blazers chill out. let’s not act like the 39 year old averaging 23, 8, 9 on 50% shooting is the problem. Maybe look at the fact the lakers did absolutely nothing in the offseason to improve this roster. Oh and the so called best player on the team disappears every time you need him most.
@ yes they do score more lol. 90s points on average per game is 101 and in the 20s it’s 112. It’s basic math that 40% from 3 per 100 shots is better than 50% from 2 per 100 shots.
@@him4882does the 50% from 2 account for fouls and free throws that are more likely to occur closer to the basket? Or is it an oversimplified analytic?
The degree of difficulty has gone up and there are far more bad 3 attempts than ever. The real step back 3 is not an easy shot and puts tremendous another of stress on the plant foot. They shoot that even when it's needed.
@@davidelsea1296how is it easier now? Have you ever watched an 80s game were defenders would sag of the ball to double the post and dare you to shoot? Most wouldnt shoot when they were wide open.
How are they taking more difficult shots when today NBA is played almost with no defense? They are just shooting stupid 3s because everyone is doing it.
@@charisdiscuss7889just stop the no defense foolishness. That narrative is old and tired. Either you dont watch games or your a flat out liar. Which one is it?
This is exactly the case. 36% is roughly the point where it’s more efficient to shoot 3s than playing through the low post or whatever other quality (but non layup) two point shot you might get in the flow of offense. It’s roughly the same as shooting 54% on a 2 point shot. So as shooters get better, you dont necessarily increase percentage, but rather volume because until you dip below 33%, you’re at the same efficiency as a two pointer with 50% FG percentage.
@sleezyclips8068 so a little over a third of all 3s taking are makes, honestly that's not bad, but if you look at why that is, the teams that have a higher 3 point percent, the teams with lower are trying to imitate.
A big reason is as the league gets better at shooting threes, the closer defenders play to the perimeter. So, that opens up easier drives. Greater three point shooting threat opens up better 2 point shooting.
@fastguna650 The question implied all players shoot the same 3 point % over the last 20 years whereas if you compare % by position I bet it is higher across the board.
@@weliveinasimulation. yeah and his answer was exactly what you said just slightly different words. He said there more ppl with not so great shooting ability shooting. Only thing you said that was different was PF and C shooting but that ls exactly what he meant without saying it Of course if you normalize by position you’ll get a different outcome but that wasn’t apart of the question
The crazy thing is if you think about it big man who actually shoot 3’s are not bad 3 point shooters it is the the guards who shoot terrible and erratic from the 3 point line because I don’t know to many big man that actually shoot 3 that are terrible shooters but there are plenty of guards who shoot a terrible percentage
How are they taking much more difficult shots? The shots today are about the easiest shots in NBA history. There is literally zero defense in the league today, they actually were taking much more difficult shots in the 90s and 2000s than today. By far, and it's not even close
@@Wetrockstah2116 yeah you’re just objectively wrong and I looked it up to make sure. Not only did players take much less shots off the dribble from 3 point range, but guys also took and made far, far less contested 3 point shots.
@@thuggwaffle8825 yeah there was a reason for that, there was defense, and dudes were getting ran off the 3 pt line, plus it wasn't much of a point of emphasis either. Teams had shooters on their rosters, and mainly those guys shot the 3, the way the game was played was different, it was officiated different, there was no "freedom of movement" back then. Today players will run a fast break for an open 3, there is Alot more open shots, and mainly because there are more shots overall and alot of them barely contested
I was looking at some statistics for this season and based on % for 2pt fg and 3 fg are netting about the same point per fg, the 2pt fg is netting 1.078 roughly and the 3 pt fg is about 1.082, which means we are roughly hitting the ceiling with number of field goals that should be three statistically to have the best efficiency. So in the coming years I predict that we won’t see drastic increases in 3pt field goal attempts unless percentage of making 3pt field goals go up or percentage of making 2pt field goals go down.
Exactly. The league is close to an equilibrium. If the percentage made rises, the incentive is to take more threes until the percentage falls or teams are only taking threes.
When looking at the points that a 2 point field goal accounts for, do we look at both 2s and 3s that aren't credited as attempts because they become free throws? i.e. 2 and 3 point attempts that result in fouls? Just read that 78% of free throw attempts on shooting fouls stem from 2 points attempts. So to me, the three point efficiency would have to be so much better for it to reach equilibrium. Layups and free throws will always be the most efficient shots in basketball.
Before lesser attempts 36% is understandable. Today most of NBA highlights are threes, tons of attempts but they're not Curry,Klay,Durant, Harden, Fox, Hield or any lethal shooters. Meaning most of the players are just trying to shoot 3's but they missed alot. It's easier to score now but still the scoring leaders this season avg 29-32 PPG way below compared to the 90s-2000s. Players today are shifty no doubt, but skilled? Not at all, it's rare to see fundamentally sound players today. Fancy dribbling and shooting 3's doesn't make you skilled or to be considered as a complete player.
JJ is fully sentient. Love his answer and the question. Can more reporters think like this rather than asking the literal same questions over and over? Personally, I would feel so embarrassed if I asked a player or coach the same question more than once in a season.
I love this question and I love that JJ attempts to answer it. It really is fascinating. I would argue too that longer three point attempts have become a lot more common in the last decade of the NBA. So the shooters have gotten better but they've also begun to attempt shots from even further out. If you look at the attempts from right on the three point line, I'm sure the average has gone up. Or look at something like the percentage on corner threes maybe (though a lot of bigs or bad shooters get that spot because it's the closest. Sorta supports JJ's theory too).
Teams and players _think_ you have to chuck a ton of 3s just because golden state did. You dont. Push to the basket. Mid range game. Post moves. It all still works
It’s because regardless of the year both the offensive and defensive side of the ball have valued the 3pt shot equally. The value placed on defending 3 point shooters has increased at the same rate that the value of improving 3pt shooting has occurred, I have no doubt if you took the average player from now to 20 years ago and had them compete in a 3pt contest, the player now wins simply due to the fact they have been coached how to shoot 3s better and taken more. The same would apply for if you were to ask those players how are you going to defend the 3 point line the player now would be able to demonstrate or point out specific techniques used to defend the 3. The player 20 years ago would be saying please take the 3 I don’t want to have shaq dunk on my head again 😂
Back then, threes were shot exclusively by players who were meant to shoot (guards, maybe the small forward). Whereas now you have good shooters that shoot 40%+ but you also have big men who are not supposed to shoot, yet they do.
There's a tremendous amount of confidence now that A) shooters are better B) You're encouraged to take 3s, but that confidence also leads to a lot of really bad shots taken
This is a great discussion and I think speaks to the decline in the quality of the NBA game. Increasing quantity of 3s at the expense of other aspects of the game with no efficiency gain
Is it really no efficiency gain when teams are scoring more and more every year? In the 2000’s tons of games didn’t even reach triple digit points compared to now were the averaging over 110. Old heads just can’t comprehend that the games not getting worse it’s evolving. These are pros doing eveyrhing they can to win if shooting threes wasn’t the answer they wouldn’t do it
Attempts are way up and percentage is the same meaning more of the score generated is from 3 pointers. This also means higher scores, faster pace, and less wear on the body if the guard.
Also, for most of the NBAs history, 3s were wide open shots that nobody guarded. The % not increasing doesn’t mean players haven’t gotten better at shooting, it’s just that even the below average shooters today are contested and some of the best shooters of the past shot primarily wide open
I think another factor could be that the difficulty of the average 3 point attempts has gone up as it has become a more common shot and is better defended now that it was 15 years ago. So even though we get more open 3's now, its primarily because we have a larger overall volume of 3's, we also get a much larger volume of contested. Another factor is they're shooting from deeper than they were 15 years ago.
The reality of the 3pt shot is that every member of the team practices it now, they get reps in behind the arc and a lot of team are playing 4 out with a roaming screen man. It’s very often that second defender hedges the screen and leaves another player wide open, which is a perfect opportunity for even an average shooter to hit a 3. Back in the day it was by assignment only, you knew the guys who had the green light, they were shooting those 3s with some consistency and you almost never saw a guy hit from long range, it’s why guys lie Kevin Love and Dirk Nowitzki could be part of teams that were throwing out systems that teams just had no idea how to handle. McHale sniffed at it in his later years and had a very good shooting stroke but I think that was shut down as his minutes diminished.
Except that silly corner three. There's no great reason to have a spot on the floor where the three is shorter other than that they picked 23'9" to be the primary length, but you only have space to do 22' in the corners.
Excellent question. It’s because guys who cant shoot consistently are allowed to shoot 6-7 threes a game, and out of the 6-7 they only make 2 consistently.
And add to that the elite (and sometimes not so elite) shooters are pegging up some absolutely wild threws of some absolutely wild moves. That's the game and it's encouraged by the coaches. (And the league through it's administration of rules and interpretations). See Jordan talking about why he doesn't take more threes and Anthony Edwards about why he does. Paraphrasing "The team is best served by me attacking the basket" , "the coaches want me to shoot that many threes". Different game with different rules. Cant be compared. (You can however say Jordan is the greatest and by some margin however)
The league is much more confident in putting up and shooting threes, some of the threes being attempted are significantly more difficult than they were 10-15 years ago. So improving your shot > more confidence > tougher shots > percentage plateaus
Are you saying that negatively or are you praising him for trying to become a great coach? It’s the internet so I’d say it’s the first option and you taking a shot at the lakers for not being very good
The percentage may be the same but the attempts have gone up like crazy each year. So this shows that shooting from deep has gotten more consistent and easier every year.
While percentage shooting has gotten better individually, the volume has also gone way up allowing for more overall misses and evening out the overall percentage - and what JJ said of people who don't specialize in shooting threes being essentially forced to.
Good speculation. If you’re a slasher you still have to shoot 3s to keep your defender from sagging off on the perimeter. People like Russel Westbrook and Derrick Rose both averaged about 32% from 3 in their prime, but still had about 4-5 attempts a game. That brings the overall percentage down.
I think it’s a combination of players in the past not being as skilled at the three-point line, and current players taking wayyy more threes than they used to, so it makes sense that overall, it would level out and be a 36% average
Because any NBA player that practices shooting 3s typically tops out at around 36%. If they practiced in the 80s and 90s it woulda bee 39%...becauae they were just better at everything back then...
It's also because people defend the 3 pointer harder. Before, defenders rarely stepped outside the 3, so that players don't drive in. Now they start guarding 3-4 steps from the 3 (sometimes even half court), they'd rather get beat on a drive.
Although guys can shoot better overall in today's game, they prioritize quantity over quality. Teams are not looking to balance the game. If half of your shots are from outside, you don't need to spread the floor. Spreading the floor should encourage more ball penetration.
If u think about it, it means players are better at 3 pointers over all because They are taking more shots and the percentage doesn't drop, it stays the same
My speculation would be that as the ability to shoot the 3 has improved, so has the volume and difficulty of 3s being shot. The average difficulty of a 3 pointer in 2024 is higher than in 2014, but the skill level is higher, so the % stays roughly the same.
Shooting more difficult shots yet maintaining the same percentage as before (when they usually shot open shots) means the increased skill is offset with the riskier strategy.
The players are better shooters overall because shooting has been a more valued fundament over these years, that pulls the percentages up. At the same time, players are taking more difficult attempts, not just shooting while wide open, that pulls the percentages down. It all evens out at the end.
Number of threes taken went up and it continues going up till the percentage drops. The optimum value of taking threes is probably at the 35-36% percentage
The remarkable thing is would be shot selection has become remarkably more difficult and the volume has gone up dramatically not to mention we're asking more guys to shoot 3s than ever. You used to have a center and pf playing true post positions now you definitely dont want to have more than 1 non shooter on the floor at a time and ideally all 5 guys can shoot. All of this considered and the percentage has still stayed true.
It’s a natural equilibrium, people weren’t shooting 3’s, people started shooting 3’s & are better shooters than 15 years ago. the stat grew to the size of its pond metaphorically.
Probably has something to do with how the defensive coverage surrounding 3 point shots has increased proportionally with the number of threes being shot
Yea that also defense has gotten better In 2003 when the spurs had the highest 3 point % every year And zone was allowed The only space defense would give u was the 3 There would be corner 3s that there would be no contest for Or even anyone running There is barely any that are not contested today Yea 36% But that includes step backs and off the dribble Not just the 40% specialist
36% from 3 and 55% from 2 is an equilibrium breakeven point for expected value. If you are making more than 36% from 3 plus 55% from 2, take more 3s until you are down to 36%. If you’re making less than 36% take less.
20 years ago they weren’t shooting as many and probably weren’t as good at shooting them but when they did shoot them it was more strategic while now they are better at shooting them but they shoot so many that their bound to miss a good % of them.
There are also a lot more players going for unnecessarily long 3s which could be dropping the average and players tend to also go for 3s at half court at the end of every quarter because players tend to make those much mroe often than in the past which also brings the average down
It looks like league used to fluctuate between 34-35% on 3pt rarely 36% for the league and now 35-36 is much more common. Not much of an increase but it is definitely an increase. Since 2000(last 24 years) the league was 36%+ on 3pt’s seven times: 07/08 , 08/09 , 13/14 , 17/18 , 20/21 , 22/23 , 23/24. 4 of the past 7 seasons were 36%+ and 19/20 was 35.8%. Seems like a definite difference not drastic but definitely there. Also, league average true shooting has drastically increased from 51-53% to 56-58%.
i think it’s cuz the value of the 3 has reached its peak. when teams are taking so many threes you have to ask when does it become redundant, look at bad 3 point shooting teams continuing to throw up 3s when you are able to spread the floor with great shooters that opens the middle and causes the two point shot to have just as much if not MORE value than the 3. that’s what allows for the highly efficient High volume offensive teams of modern basketball. that’s why the best teams in the league are both highly efficient inside and outside the arc.
What jj wanted to say: I have no idea. This team has had elite all star players its whole franchise. And this is my first year coaching. I couldn’t even legally drink 20 years ago 😅
![ILLSLICK X YOUNGOHM - We're The same [Official Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/yUJNkobYR0E/mqdefault.jpg)
That journalist deserves a raise. Not too often they bring up an actually interesting statistic.
Facts
JJ is also one of the few that can give educated quick answers
It wasn’t a good answer
As a statistician who enjoys basketball , my answer would be shooting has obviously gotten better , but they’re taking these difficult shots at higher volumes
@@ClutchGenehe genuinely doesn’t know he gave as much speculation as he could in a timely manner.
Getting the "thats a good question" must feel like crack for reporters when it hits
Bro right lol
Just thinking that lol
Lol
You say it to anyone and they’ll love it
First time I’ve ever heard it
This man is not getting sleep
He's going to look like Abe Lincoln after this job
That’s just how his eyes look lol
I respect it, he’s grinding to make it in the league.
Eye bags aren’t from lack of sleep. It’s from smiling that causes a crease above your cheeks just like you get creases on the sides of your mouth. Plus the skin under the eye is way more sensitive and soft so that part tends to crease up faster
Lebron got his ahh working harder than a bish
I dont think ive ever heard a BETTER question from a beat reporter! Props
To be fair it wasn’t a question. He just made a point.
@bobbyw1074 based on the context of JJ saying "that's a good question, one of the reasons...," I'm quite confident that the beginning of his question got cut off by the editor of this reel.
@@jaceking5938 That's a fair point
I recognize the voice as David Locke, the radio voice of the Utah Jazz. I think he's really good at his job. He dives very deep in his analysis of the game and makes for a really interesting listen.
Agreed. Normally every question from a beat reporter starts with “how does it feel…?”
Said differently: As many got better, the not so good ones started shooting more, canceling the improvers.
There was no need for another explanation. We kinda got the first one. lol.
Facts
Not what he said at all lol
And this is the true problem with the 3pt epidemic. EVERYONE is chucking 3s in this era, and it makes for some horrendous basketball
@@miniguccibeard3021you don’t read enough lol that was actually a perfect reinterpretation
JJ’s face lights up when he gets to talk about something other than the Lakers taking beating after beating. It’s good to see him get excited about something 😅
dude needs a break lol
Me reading this comment after the Lakers' blowout win while Lebron was on the bench.
@@marcusaurelius5149they played the blazers chill out. let’s not act like the 39 year old averaging 23, 8, 9 on 50% shooting is the problem. Maybe look at the fact the lakers did absolutely nothing in the offseason to improve this roster. Oh and the so called best player on the team disappears every time you need him most.
Number of attempts has gone way up so maintaining the same percentage while taking way more is actually a good thing
It is not a good thing. Shot percentage should be up. They don’t score more then they use to they just take more 3s.
@@donttouchmebitc is still a good thing, meaning that you increased the volume, and you didn't decrease the success rate. It's all math.
@ yes they do score more lol. 90s points on average per game is 101 and in the 20s it’s 112. It’s basic math that 40% from 3 per 100 shots is better than 50% from 2 per 100 shots.
@@monkeeyblindno one was cheating off of u in math class
@@him4882does the 50% from 2 account for fouls and free throws that are more likely to occur closer to the basket? Or is it an oversimplified analytic?
That is a really good speculation. It makes perfect sense
The degree of difficulty has gone up and there are far more bad 3 attempts than ever. The real step back 3 is not an easy shot and puts tremendous another of stress on the plant foot. They shoot that even when it's needed.
its actually easier to get a shot off now
@davidelsea1296 Broooo. They take 3's now that would get you benched for ever. They are shooting 1 legged 3's now.
@@williamgrierson4133they as in 1 player, and he's doing it at a decent rate.
@@davidelsea1296how is it easier now? Have you ever watched an 80s game were defenders would sag of the ball to double the post and dare you to shoot? Most wouldnt shoot when they were wide open.
This is my theory also. People used to take only uncontested threes. Not anymore.
I would add that players are better shooters today than 20 years ago, but they’re also taking much more difficult shots which has kept the % stagnant.
If they truly are better, then wouldn't they have higher percentages on more attempts to show they're better?
How are they taking more difficult shots when today NBA is played almost with no defense? They are just shooting stupid 3s because everyone is doing it.
@@charisdiscuss7889just stop the no defense foolishness. That narrative is old and tired. Either you dont watch games or your a flat out liar. Which one is it?
@@waynemarsh1530 objectively you're wrong.
@@waynemarsh1530you must be young and not know what defense means. It’s ok
I’d like to see the stats on contested and uncontested 3s from 20 years ago versus today. Not every 3 taken is equal.
Real ones
There are often some ‘golden ratios’..
This is exactly the case. 36% is roughly the point where it’s more efficient to shoot 3s than playing through the low post or whatever other quality (but non layup) two point shot you might get in the flow of offense. It’s roughly the same as shooting 54% on a 2 point shot. So as shooters get better, you dont necessarily increase percentage, but rather volume because until you dip below 33%, you’re at the same efficiency as a two pointer with 50% FG percentage.
@sleezyclips8068 so a little over a third of all 3s taking are makes, honestly that's not bad, but if you look at why that is, the teams that have a higher 3 point percent, the teams with lower are trying to imitate.
A big reason is as the league gets better at shooting threes, the closer defenders play to the perimeter. So, that opens up easier drives. Greater three point shooting threat opens up better 2 point shooting.
It is because your centers and power forwards all shoot a substantial number of 3's now. How about comparing guard 3pt fg % over time?
Literally what he just said
@fastguna650 The question implied all players shoot the same 3 point % over the last 20 years whereas if you compare % by position I bet it is higher across the board.
@@weliveinasimulation. yeah and his answer was exactly what you said just slightly different words. He said there more ppl with not so great shooting ability shooting. Only thing you said that was different was PF and C shooting but that ls exactly what he meant without saying it
Of course if you normalize by position you’ll get a different outcome but that wasn’t apart of the question
@@weliveinasimulation.yeah, pretty much the same thing he said just phrased in a way catering to positions more.
The crazy thing is if you think about it big man who actually shoot 3’s are not bad 3 point shooters it is the the guards who shoot terrible and erratic from the 3 point line because I don’t know to many big man that actually shoot 3 that are terrible shooters but there are plenty of guards who shoot a terrible percentage
Guys used to only really shoot wide open catch and shoots. Today they’re maintaining the same percentage while taking much more difficult shots
How are they taking much more difficult shots? The shots today are about the easiest shots in NBA history. There is literally zero defense in the league today, they actually were taking much more difficult shots in the 90s and 2000s than today. By far, and it's not even close
@@Wetrockstah2116 yeah you’re just objectively wrong and I looked it up to make sure. Not only did players take much less shots off the dribble from 3 point range, but guys also took and made far, far less contested 3 point shots.
@@thuggwaffle8825 yeah there was a reason for that, there was defense, and dudes were getting ran off the 3 pt line, plus it wasn't much of a point of emphasis either. Teams had shooters on their rosters, and mainly those guys shot the 3, the way the game was played was different, it was officiated different, there was no "freedom of movement" back then. Today players will run a fast break for an open 3, there is Alot more open shots, and mainly because there are more shots overall and alot of them barely contested
Valid answer from JJ. The mean of 36% is due to quantity not quality even though quality of shooting from ‘good/great shooters’ is more abundant.
great question to ask jj and he gave the exact right answer, crazy how the game has changed
I was looking at some statistics for this season and based on % for 2pt fg and 3 fg are netting about the same point per fg, the 2pt fg is netting 1.078 roughly and the 3 pt fg is about 1.082, which means we are roughly hitting the ceiling with number of field goals that should be three statistically to have the best efficiency. So in the coming years I predict that we won’t see drastic increases in 3pt field goal attempts unless percentage of making 3pt field goals go up or percentage of making 2pt field goals go down.
Exactly. The league is close to an equilibrium. If the percentage made rises, the incentive is to take more threes until the percentage falls or teams are only taking threes.
When looking at the points that a 2 point field goal accounts for, do we look at both 2s and 3s that aren't credited as attempts because they become free throws? i.e. 2 and 3 point attempts that result in fouls?
Just read that 78% of free throw attempts on shooting fouls stem from 2 points attempts. So to me, the three point efficiency would have to be so much better for it to reach equilibrium.
Layups and free throws will always be the most efficient shots in basketball.
Before lesser attempts 36% is understandable.
Today most of NBA highlights are threes, tons of attempts but they're not Curry,Klay,Durant, Harden, Fox, Hield or any lethal shooters.
Meaning most of the players are just trying to shoot 3's but they missed alot.
It's easier to score now but still the scoring leaders this season avg 29-32 PPG way below compared to the 90s-2000s.
Players today are shifty no doubt, but skilled? Not at all, it's rare to see fundamentally sound players today.
Fancy dribbling and shooting 3's doesn't make you skilled or to be considered as a complete player.
JJ is fully sentient. Love his answer and the question. Can more reporters think like this rather than asking the literal same questions over and over?
Personally, I would feel so embarrassed if I asked a player or coach the same question more than once in a season.
Next best question would be" How many players do we currently have in the NBA with 40 percentage shooting 3s vs 20 years ago?"
Take that question a step further and ask how many players avg over 40% for their career
I love this question and I love that JJ attempts to answer it. It really is fascinating. I would argue too that longer three point attempts have become a lot more common in the last decade of the NBA. So the shooters have gotten better but they've also begun to attempt shots from even further out. If you look at the attempts from right on the three point line, I'm sure the average has gone up. Or look at something like the percentage on corner threes maybe (though a lot of bigs or bad shooters get that spot because it's the closest. Sorta supports JJ's theory too).
Teams and players _think_ you have to chuck a ton of 3s just because golden state did. You dont. Push to the basket. Mid range game. Post moves. It all still works
It’s because regardless of the year both the offensive and defensive side of the ball have valued the 3pt shot equally.
The value placed on defending 3 point shooters has increased at the same rate that the value of improving 3pt shooting has occurred,
I have no doubt if you took the average player from now to 20 years ago and had them compete in a 3pt contest, the player now wins simply due to the fact they have been coached how to shoot 3s better and taken more.
The same would apply for if you were to ask those players how are you going to defend the 3 point line the player now would be able to demonstrate or point out specific techniques used to defend the 3. The player 20 years ago would be saying please take the 3 I don’t want to have shaq dunk on my head again 😂
Back then, threes were shot exclusively by players who were meant to shoot (guards, maybe the small forward). Whereas now you have good shooters that shoot 40%+ but you also have big men who are not supposed to shoot, yet they do.
Correct. If this era, if you are not Zion, you won't have a job as a 3 or 4 if you can't/won't stand outside and shoot a three
Honestly as a coach he's doing a lot better then some coaches with years of experience. And its his first ever coaching job too
There's a tremendous amount of confidence now that A) shooters are better B) You're encouraged to take 3s, but that confidence also leads to a lot of really bad shots taken
Excellent "on the fly" answer from JJ. Props--that dude is brilliant and is *not* the reason LAL has been declining lately
I think he just dissed Bronny indirectly
Players are regularly shooting from 8 feet outside the 3-point line. Back in the day, players’ toes were no more than 6 inches outside the line.
That was actually a great question posed to the perfect person who provided an awesome theory
This is a great discussion and I think speaks to the decline in the quality of the NBA game. Increasing quantity of 3s at the expense of other aspects of the game with no efficiency gain
Is it really no efficiency gain when teams are scoring more and more every year? In the 2000’s tons of games didn’t even reach triple digit points compared to now were the averaging over 110. Old heads just can’t comprehend that the games not getting worse it’s evolving. These are pros doing eveyrhing they can to win if shooting threes wasn’t the answer they wouldn’t do it
JJ’s hair looks phenomenal. I need to style my hair like him
This is the best comment that I’ve seen.
you're are not here for basketball, are you?
Jj reddick making up things is just golden
He is soooo much better at minding the game than actually coaching
That is one hell of a question. And a solid answer. Well done
I thought for sure he would say perimeter defense has improved along with shooting but his reason actually makes more sense
That was a good question and an interesting one. Kudos to the reprter and kudos for JJ to pontificate on that subject.
My theory is that people used to take only uncontested 3s. Nowadays many many possessions (I don't want to say most but many) end in a 3 attempt.
I had this vision of the game at 4 years old jacking 3’s when no one would shoot em. 3’s will always be better than 2’s. Light it up baby.
Not just the question, but the answer was well thought out in such a short time.
VERY GOOD QUESTION, GOOD JOB BRO 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥💪🏿
Bring back the big man post game. That was fun to watch.
I would say that in addition to this, the difficulty of threes taken as a result of higher volume AND defensive adjustments also contribute
Attempts are way up and percentage is the same meaning more of the score generated is from 3 pointers. This also means higher scores, faster pace, and less wear on the body if the guard.
Also, for most of the NBAs history, 3s were wide open shots that nobody guarded. The % not increasing doesn’t mean players haven’t gotten better at shooting, it’s just that even the below average shooters today are contested and some of the best shooters of the past shot primarily wide open
I think another factor could be that the difficulty of the average 3 point attempts has gone up as it has become a more common shot and is better defended now that it was 15 years ago.
So even though we get more open 3's now, its primarily because we have a larger overall volume of 3's, we also get a much larger volume of contested.
Another factor is they're shooting from deeper than they were 15 years ago.
The reality of the 3pt shot is that every member of the team practices it now, they get reps in behind the arc and a lot of team are playing 4 out with a roaming screen man. It’s very often that second defender hedges the screen and leaves another player wide open, which is a perfect opportunity for even an average shooter to hit a 3. Back in the day it was by assignment only, you knew the guys who had the green light, they were shooting those 3s with some consistency and you almost never saw a guy hit from long range, it’s why guys lie Kevin Love and Dirk Nowitzki could be part of teams that were throwing out systems that teams just had no idea how to handle. McHale sniffed at it in his later years and had a very good shooting stroke but I think that was shut down as his minutes diminished.
Its actually fascinating how perfectly the NBA placed the 3-Point line for it to be about as valuable as other shots by percentage.
Except that silly corner three. There's no great reason to have a spot on the floor where the three is shorter other than that they picked 23'9" to be the primary length, but you only have space to do 22' in the corners.
Excellent question. It’s because guys who cant shoot consistently are allowed to shoot 6-7 threes a game, and out of the 6-7 they only make 2 consistently.
Fair play to him for coming up with a pretty plausible explanation on the spot.
And add to that the elite (and sometimes not so elite) shooters are pegging up some absolutely wild threws of some absolutely wild moves. That's the game and it's encouraged by the coaches. (And the league through it's administration of rules and interpretations).
See Jordan talking about why he doesn't take more threes and Anthony Edwards about why he does. Paraphrasing "The team is best served by me attacking the basket" , "the coaches want me to shoot that many threes".
Different game with different rules. Cant be compared. (You can however say Jordan is the greatest and by some margin however)
The league is much more confident in putting up and shooting threes, some of the threes being attempted are significantly more difficult than they were 10-15 years ago. So improving your shot > more confidence > tougher shots > percentage plateaus
He's getting no sleep.
Are you saying that negatively or are you praising him for trying to become a great coach? It’s the internet so I’d say it’s the first option and you taking a shot at the lakers for not being very good
@@hansoloburger2322because of his eye bags dunce
The percentage may be the same but the attempts have gone up like crazy each year. So this shows that shooting from deep has gotten more consistent and easier every year.
While percentage shooting has gotten better individually, the volume has also gone way up allowing for more overall misses and evening out the overall percentage - and what JJ said of people who don't specialize in shooting threes being essentially forced to.
Makes sense though. People have gotten way better but the game has expanded from the rim at a similar rate.
Miss this man not being on a podcast
Good speculation. If you’re a slasher you still have to shoot 3s to keep your defender from sagging off on the perimeter. People like Russel Westbrook and Derrick Rose both averaged about 32% from 3 in their prime, but still had about 4-5 attempts a game. That brings the overall percentage down.
I think it’s a combination of players in the past not being as skilled at the three-point line, and current players taking wayyy more threes than they used to, so it makes sense that overall, it would level out and be a 36% average
Main reason is that they usually shot wide open threes only. Nobody ever shot a contested three. But the shooting is getting better.
that is an extraordinarily deep question
math/statistics/game theory/game mechanics implications
Because any NBA player that practices shooting 3s typically tops out at around 36%. If they practiced in the 80s and 90s it woulda bee 39%...becauae they were just better at everything back then...
I mean the fact the 3pt percentage hasn’t gone up or down even when every team shoots more 3’s is still kinda impressive.
great question and answer honestly.
As players get more skilled at shooting the 3, more players shoot the 3 at a higher volume, and coaching makes it stabilize at around 36%
It's also because people defend the 3 pointer harder. Before, defenders rarely stepped outside the 3, so that players don't drive in. Now they start guarding 3-4 steps from the 3 (sometimes even half court), they'd rather get beat on a drive.
You already answered it, it’s the average of the best, they really draft that accurately
Volume shooting in my opinion is the reason why. The higher the volume the harder it is to make them at a high rate.
Great question and a even better answer
Although guys can shoot better overall in today's game, they prioritize quantity over quality. Teams are not looking to balance the game. If half of your shots are from outside, you don't need to spread the floor. Spreading the floor should encourage more ball penetration.
JJ right here its their sheer volume
If u think about it, it means players are better at 3 pointers over all because
They are taking more shots and the percentage doesn't drop, it stays the same
Great question, need way more of this and less of the dumb obvious questions from media.
My speculation would be that as the ability to shoot the 3 has improved, so has the volume and difficulty of 3s being shot. The average difficulty of a 3 pointer in 2024 is higher than in 2014, but the skill level is higher, so the % stays roughly the same.
It's so rare to see JJ's mind melt. Fun.
Shooting more difficult shots yet maintaining the same percentage as before (when they usually shot open shots) means the increased skill is offset with the riskier strategy.
Gil said it best. You have people taking 3s and shot attempts that have no business taking that shot.
The players are better shooters overall because shooting has been a more valued fundament over these years, that pulls the percentages up. At the same time, players are taking more difficult attempts, not just shooting while wide open, that pulls the percentages down. It all evens out at the end.
Number of threes taken went up and it continues going up till the percentage drops. The optimum value of taking threes is probably at the 35-36% percentage
The remarkable thing is would be shot selection has become remarkably more difficult and the volume has gone up dramatically not to mention we're asking more guys to shoot 3s than ever. You used to have a center and pf playing true post positions now you definitely dont want to have more than 1 non shooter on the floor at a time and ideally all 5 guys can shoot. All of this considered and the percentage has still stayed true.
It’s a natural equilibrium, people weren’t shooting 3’s, people started shooting 3’s & are better shooters than 15 years ago. the stat grew to the size of its pond metaphorically.
Feels like JJ is a new type of coach, interesting to see
Also the trend for more 3point shoot is still pretty new. The warrior dynasty is maybe 10yr compared to the 17 yrs. The trend just started basically
Probably has something to do with how the defensive coverage surrounding 3 point shots has increased proportionally with the number of threes being shot
Yea that also defense has gotten better
In 2003 when the spurs had the highest 3 point % every year
And zone was allowed
The only space defense would give u was the 3
There would be corner 3s that there would be no contest for
Or even anyone running
There is barely any that are not contested today
Yea 36%
But that includes step backs and off the dribble
Not just the 40% specialist
36% from 3 and 55% from 2 is an equilibrium breakeven point for expected value. If you are making more than 36% from 3 plus 55% from 2, take more 3s until you are down to 36%. If you’re making less than 36% take less.
20 years ago they weren’t shooting as many and probably weren’t as good at shooting them but when they did shoot them it was more strategic while now they are better at shooting them but they shoot so many that their bound to miss a good % of them.
There are also a lot more players going for unnecessarily long 3s which could be dropping the average and players tend to also go for 3s at half court at the end of every quarter because players tend to make those much mroe often than in the past which also brings the average down
Lakers press conferences are just live JJ reddick pods
It looks like league used to fluctuate between 34-35% on 3pt rarely 36% for the league and now 35-36 is much more common. Not much of an increase but it is definitely an increase.
Since 2000(last 24 years) the league was 36%+ on 3pt’s seven times: 07/08 , 08/09 , 13/14 , 17/18 , 20/21 , 22/23 , 23/24.
4 of the past 7 seasons were 36%+ and 19/20 was 35.8%. Seems like a definite difference not drastic but definitely there.
Also, league average true shooting has drastically increased from 51-53% to 56-58%.
Good question, better answer
i think it’s cuz the value of the 3 has reached its peak. when teams are taking so many threes you have to ask when does it become redundant, look at bad 3 point shooting teams continuing to throw up 3s when you are able to spread the floor with great shooters that opens the middle and causes the two point shot to have just as much if not MORE value than the 3. that’s what allows for the highly efficient High volume offensive teams of modern basketball. that’s why the best teams in the league are both highly efficient inside and outside the arc.
Also account for degree of difficulty, players are shooting more non wide open 3s too
Less three pointers were taken 25-30 years ago. Now it’s a volume three game.
What a great question.....
This man aged 10 years in 1 year as a coach
More questions like that please. I’m tired of questions like “why did you guys miss so many free throws”
What jj wanted to say: I have no idea. This team has had elite all star players its whole franchise. And this is my first year coaching. I couldn’t even legally drink 20 years ago 😅
Good question Good Answer