Peter Foster: What Went Wrong With Brexit: And What We Can Do About It
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 ก.ย. 2024
- In this IPR lecture, Financial Times public policy editor Peter Foster discusses his book "What Went Wrong With Brexit: And What We Can Do About It".
Six years after Brexit, Peter Foster argues that it’s time that we stop having the same conversations over and over again. We need to move on, because in the meantime so much has changed. The economic realities that are making the UK less competitive, less productive and less well-off are ever more obvious - and more and more people are finding out the Brexit they were sold was based on falsehoods and fantasy.
So what exactly went wrong with Brexit?
Peter Foster's book dispels the myths and, most importantly, shows what a better future for Britain after Brexit might look like. With clear-headed practicality, he considers the real costs of leaving the EU, how we can recover international trust in the UK, how to improve cooperation and trade with our neighbours, and how to begin to build the Global Britain that Brexit promised but failed to deliver.
This IPR lecture took place on 9 November 2023.
All we hear during the debates about Brexit are economic advantages and disadvantages and very little is said about the UK‘s willingness to be an active player in the developing of a Europe which improves life conditions for the citizens in all countries in Europe. The EU will be particularly interested in this aspect.
Of course all you hear are economic advantages - that was the main disadvantage of Brexit, according to Remain contingent - particularly our Chancellor. I think we in the UK would never have agreed to the ongoing losses of vetoes and the EU determination to become a single entity in whatever form they choose. And looking backward which I confess is always an easy thing to do I look at the political changes arising in the EU particularly in the Netherlands and Poland, also to some extent Hungary plus the EU involvement in some domestic political issues and I am thankful we are out. Think we can be more objective from a distance.
Thanks to Peter for his very interesting talk.
It covered EU countries' possible responses to entreaties for greater reintegration coming from the UK side.
But I think it would also be very interesting to hear (and I've never heard such arguments made) directly from the European perspective.
Peter pointed to the EU having other things on its collective mind; EU businesses' difficulty in trusting long term UK government police towards EU trade, etc. But a full perspective from the EU side might cover (among things I haven't imagined):
- The orphaned UK offering further potential for industry migration to EU Member States over the coming years
- Plenty more to do on securing a European centre of Finance (even for its own market) while UK is outside the EU
- More for companies to do on consolidating their supply lines within the EU's current boundaries
- Need to get wider use of qualified majority voting before UK comes back wielding its veto.
Ending the freedom of movement within the EU meant our freedom going.... Brexiters still don't get it....
Ending the freedom?????? - I thought it was extended to the whole world?
Oh we get it but check the numbers going each way and it will give you an idea why FOM was a negative to many.
You can fill out a form; it’s a small price to pay for democracy. Stamping your feet for seven years because you lost some of your travel privileges has been unedifying.
@@aleph8888 you can fill out a form and boat people don't have to. Great deal.
BTW what can you do personally you couldn't do before? Please tell me.
I would agree with your post@@aleph8888
It wasn't about economics. I have never met a Remainer who has even tried to understand that.
For leavers it was about sovereignty and not being told what we had to do by people we had no control over.
"sovereignty and not being told what we had to do by people we had no control over."
A total failure to understand the nature of the EU and wider world
In fact the opposite has happened
1) in those highly defined areas of pooled competency between EU members now more than ever the UK is a rule taker with no seat at the table
EU law is ONLY about setting up the internal market trade between members and so relates only to trade and employment rules. The EU is NOT a fully federal state like the US or Aus or Canada.
2) in those areas where every EU member has full sovereignty eg policing its borders for economic migrants, the UK is now less sovereign as the UKG has realised that problems such as migration require a joined up approach by all western nations and for the UK that means cooperative agreements with the EU such as the Dublin Accords and the UK is bound by international law such as the UN accords.
@@epincion I was going to make those same points to erm... fatdaddy1996, but you did it better than I could have.
I'd also say that the British influence on the EU was profound and largely beneficial. Britain made the right call over its Maastricht optouts. It tended to put a brake on the United State of Europe concept. Britain now has no influence on the direction of the EU, and yet is in thrall to it. It's in a tidal lock to the EU as the moon is to the earth.
Younger generations may have the option to emigrate; for example, pay and quality of life for doctors and nurses in Australia is vastly superior. Think of it as “global Britain”: young Britons can escape the Brexit they did not want for greener pastures across the globe.
Or, in plain English: any students reading this? Escape while you can
I agree but the reality is that points based migration to Canada, Aus, NZ is very limited in scope. For example with doctors and nurses those nations don't want the newly qualified but rather those with around a decade of working experience and even then cherry pick the best.
Brexit was always about leaving the EU. Well you could leave in a car. But nobody knows what car or what route to take. Which I think is a good example of why Brexit doesn't work.
Interesting speech, but @15:31 shows the British haven’t changed. You used ‘decide’ instead of ‘agreed or accepted.’ Your discussion was - in the end - a fantasy wish list.
An apparatus that creates more structured contact? What exactly, a standing joint council? Part of the neighbourhood rather than a thorn in the side? All sounds good in principle, but how? Sounds a little bit “cherry picky”. The EU will do what is best for the EU first and foremost, and protect its single market and values. If the UK wants to pivot in that direction fine, but if the UK thinks it can diverge and bypass the EU, I don’t think it will happen. I totally agree with rejoining Erasmus. I tried to get my local labour PPC but he seemed entirely uninterested
I suppose the only thing that went really wrong with Brexit was ……… errrrrrr Brexit!
Do you ever wonder why you feel poorer than you did 10 or 20 years ago ? Its all because of the failure of the EU over decades. Consider how much the EU has already declined relative to the United States. Fifteen years ago, according to the IMF, the GDP of the Eurozone was just under $14 trillion, while the U.S. economy was marginally bigger.Today, the Eurozone’s GDP is just under $15 trillion, a modest rise by any standards. But the U.S.’s GDP has roared ahead to $25 trillion, making its economy 60 per cent bigger than the Eurozone. That’s a lot of relative economic decline for the Euro area in just a decade and a half.The failure of Europe to keep pace with America has taken its toll on living standards. The average EU country is now poorer per head than every state in America bar Idaho and Mississippi. In 1990 America accounted for 25 per cent of global GDP, the EU a little above that. Today, America still accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP but the EU’s share has consistently slipped. It is now just over 14 per cent and falling. America has outperformed the EU on every economic indicator that matters. Since 1990 the U.S. working age population has risen from 127 million to 175 million, a rise of almost 40 per cent, while Europe’s has gone from 94 million to 102 million, a rise of only 9 per cent. We need less EU and a lot more USA
@@garyb455 oh dear - it’s not the EU it’s Brexit that has led to our decline. Once we get back in things will improve.
Yupp.. The question what went wrong with Brexit somehow implies that in theory Brexit could have gone right (would be a success). The alternative line of thinking was that Brexit had to fail; was wrong from the beginning.
@@garyb455 And do you ever wonder why the UK is so far behind the EU? Let alone the US? It's all because of the failure of the UK Tory party over decades.
In the decade prior to the 2008 global banking crash the UK was on a steep growth trajectory. However due to chronic Tory under-investment, more than a decade of politically driven austerity, incompetence, corruption and probably worst of all the self-inflicated trade barriers inflicted by Brexit, the UK economy has flatlined since 2010.
You might want more USA but the USA really no longer wants much from failed state Tory isolationist UK. The USA now deals with its EU partners through Ireland, thanks.
Many Britons were very critics about the EU (All UK's woes were caused by the EU) and this inlcudes D.Cameron. Certainly the EU is not perfect and is in the making but, truth is, the SM, CU and being part of the EU had many many advantages that the UK is discovering now having lost those advantages. The other truth is that some key Brexiters were not playing fair with their fellow citizens as they were after escaping money laundering and tax evasion new rules to be introduced in the EU. So Fuck the Business and Welcome Singapore on Thames (Londongrad / Caiman Island London). If you don't consider this, you cannot understand why BOTH key parties are not honest about Brexit. This many last at least one decade up to forever.
Assumed compliance and mirroring of EU laws will not be the solution (any following governemnt may cancel this mirroring). Only the ECJ can be a controlling body and bring a solution. Here we call it EU membership. Outside of it are very few solutions (Swiss model not on the table and the Norway model which is: you pay, you comply and you don't decide for anything).
Peter Foster is very interesting and follows closely K.Starmer's approach of a patched solution. Truth is the trust of EU countries towards the UK is totally gone (destructed) and this Labour approach WILL NOT WORK (you are still OUT and untrustworthy).
Do you ever wonder why you feel poorer than you did 10 or 20 years ago ? Its all because of the failure of the EU over decades. Consider how much the EU has already declined relative to the United States. Fifteen years ago, according to the IMF, the GDP of the Eurozone was just under $14 trillion, while the U.S. economy was marginally bigger.Today, the Eurozone’s GDP is just under $15 trillion, a modest rise by any standards. But the U.S.’s GDP has roared ahead to $25 trillion, making its economy 60 per cent bigger than the Eurozone. That’s a lot of relative economic decline for the Euro area in just a decade and a half.The failure of Europe to keep pace with America has taken its toll on living standards. The average EU country is now poorer per head than every state in America bar Idaho and Mississippi. In 1990 America accounted for 25 per cent of global GDP, the EU a little above that. Today, America still accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP but the EU’s share has consistently slipped. It is now just over 14 per cent and falling. America has outperformed the EU on every economic indicator that matters. Since 1990 the U.S. working age population has risen from 127 million to 175 million, a rise of almost 40 per cent, while Europe’s has gone from 94 million to 102 million, a rise of only 9 per cent. We need less EU and a lot more USA
What's this idea that only Britain is a Eurosceptic country, if it is defined as there are things about the EU that Britons do not like. Nonsense. The problem with Peter's argument from 49:19 is that it is the one where the Perfect is the Enemy of the Good. Hardly anyone including Brits, Dutch, Hungarians, Swedes , the French etc, thinks that the EU is perfect. Most, including most Brits, think membership is a more desirable situation to be in, than not being a member. And who on the continent is talking about a federal Europe!? Certainly not here in France.
Not anywhere, only in britain, you lot are out & won't be back .
If it is hard 4 us to trase what about asia or Africa, racist EU?!
Really good synopsis from Peter Foster, although there is still that weird choice of words regarding the UK being 'excluded' from the EU-US Technology and Trade Council... But hey, the UK can join EU institutions as soon as we get a seat in your institutions like the Financial Conduct authority or your environmental protection agency (sarcasm warning).
Hold on, you basically tell us: So, when the US and the EU were negotiating how it would be beneficial to have a Technology and Trade Council they didn't invite the UK? It almost seems when you leave a club you can't play the game at all. Who would have thought?
@Paul_C oh but the UK is playing the game, as the UK has a bigger tech industry than France+Germany combined.
@@zorrodm Where can we read the evidence and details of this statement?
@qeitkas594
Evidence is below.
"Thanks to consistent growth, the UK is now the third country in the world to reach a market value of $1 trillion in the tech sector - after the US and China. This means the UK tech industry is currently ahead of its European peers and is worth more than double Germany’s ($467.2 billion) and three times more than France’s ($307.5 billion)."
Source: EU-Startups publication
Article title: "UK tech takes the top spot in Europe as the ecosystem keeps growing"
Article author: Patricia Allen
@@zorrodmYou changed subject or didn't quite understand what the Technology and Trade Council is about.
Why are you Brits still complaining! You wanted out of the EU! You got your wish!!!!
And many of us are quite happy with the decision, however, the powers that be are not happy because it is a set back on their route to Globalism. Consequently, they are putting out a lot of propaganda and disinformation so the UK will form closer bonds with the EU.
Strangely, the UK is the world's fourth largest exporter with only one EU country in front so it does not seem to be doing that badly despite the propaganda to the contrary.
Well if there is a referendum to decide an important issue, and just over half vote one way, and just under half vote the other way, then afterwards some people will be unhappy, especially when things subsequently go wrong.
After Trump beat Hillary Clinton, some Americans complained about Trump. It wouldn't be a good riposte to say "Why are you Americans still complaining! You wanted Trump! You got your wish" (and a lot of exclamation marks).
Clinton voters might reasonably say "We voted for Clinton you idiot".
Do you ever wonder why you feel poorer than you did 10 or 20 years ago ? Its all because of the failure of the EU over decades. Consider how much the EU has already declined relative to the United States. Fifteen years ago, according to the IMF, the GDP of the Eurozone was just under $14 trillion, while the U.S. economy was marginally bigger.Today, the Eurozone’s GDP is just under $15 trillion, a modest rise by any standards. But the U.S.’s GDP has roared ahead to $25 trillion, making its economy 60 per cent bigger than the Eurozone. That’s a lot of relative economic decline for the Euro area in just a decade and a half.The failure of Europe to keep pace with America has taken its toll on living standards. The average EU country is now poorer per head than every state in America bar Idaho and Mississippi. In 1990 America accounted for 25 per cent of global GDP, the EU a little above that. Today, America still accounts for 25 per cent of global GDP but the EU’s share has consistently slipped. It is now just over 14 per cent and falling. America has outperformed the EU on every economic indicator that matters. Since 1990 the U.S. working age population has risen from 127 million to 175 million, a rise of almost 40 per cent, while Europe’s has gone from 94 million to 102 million, a rise of only 9 per cent. We need less EU and a lot more USA
And do you ever wonder why the UK is so far behind the EU? Let alone the US? It's all because of the failure of the UK Tory party over decades.
In the decade prior to the 2008 global banking crash the UK was on a steep growth trajectory. However due to chronic Tory under-investment, more than a decade of politically driven austerity, incompetence, corruption and probably worst of all the self-inflicated trade barriers inflicted by Brexit, the UK economy has flatlined since 2010.
You might want more USA but the USA really no longer wants much from failed state Tory isolationist UK. The USA now deals with its EU partners through Ireland, thanks.
It is exactly this kind of economic illiteracy that caused Brexit in the first place.
Most of the EU-US GDP divergence of the past decade, or so, is simply exchange rate fluctuations, not a collapse in living standards in the EU, or a magical productivity growth in the US. The Euro was trading at the time, when it was supposed to be "bigger" than the US at some $1,47 vs $1.08 now. The € launched at ~ $1.17 in 1999.
Add to it the fact that the US (government) is borrowing persistently much more than the aggregate EU, thus "buying" some of its growth -- but the deficit % increase is higher than the added GDP growth of the US-- and things look more balanced.
There actually was an article in the Financial Times this week (by Chris Giles) where he spoke of these distortions including the EU-US one, headlined "The Chinese economy is bigger than that of the US" -- I am paraphrasing a little, but it is easy to find.
Bottom line. The EU could do better. Our markets are still fragmented, we need banking union, common debt instruments, etc., but the US economy has its own problems, its social structures resemble that of a third world country in many ways, and it is pretty much a modern oligarchy, not a functioning democracy.
So, on the balance, I am quite happy to be an EU citizen.
To add.
The US share of world GDP in 2022, on PPP terms, was 15,54% vs the EU's 14, 87%. Both projected to decline slowly, as the rest of the world catches up, as has been the trend for decades. The same holds true for the UK, but its economy is minuscule compared to the three giants in the world (the US, the EU and China).
The US labor market participation rate is currently at 62,80%, and the EU equivalent is 75% (Q2 of this year). The EU has 199 million people in employment Q1 2023. The US has 135 million people employed in October 2023.
Your numbers cited do not stack up even remotely with the actual reality, nor the statistics readily available from reliable sources.
Unless you get paid for peddling misinformation, please do educate yourself on the realities of the world, instead of this Brexity non-sense about the "failing" EU.
Thanks.
@@jyrisulin Great comment. Facts is what we need.
Thank you @@qeitkas594 . Most appreciated.
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#TakeBackLabour KeirStarmerOut SaveOurNHS GeneralStrike2024 VoteGreenSaveBritainAndTheWorkersParty
Well that was persuasive.
@@kevinmcinerney1959
What would be persuasive?
Starmer lied to get elected, he broke EVERY promise to workers, he purged the left wing, he supports human rights violations and a mass murder by an apartheid state, he supports NHS privatisation, he supports austerity, he wasted Labours capital donated by workers and is fund raising from corrupt unions and rich capitalists intending to represent the FEW against the many.
None of that is persuasive because if you don't already agree with what I already posted you never will and are just trolling and addressed NONE of my points.
Well I think Brexit, by which I mean the act of dissociating ourselves from the EU relationship and continuing as a sovereign nation has been fine. Nothing amazing - just what most nations in the world do! I concede our govt is taking time to reorganise itself and ensure it has created an organisation that understands what additional responsibilities it needs to handle and to create new and/or improved relationships with the wider world. This is taking time but slowly we are moving in the right direction. Things are better for the nation now we are out but it will take some time before the changes that will inevitably follow our changing relationships over the world become clear to the overall population. We still have a trading relationship with the EU and some degree of historic and social contacts. We can move into some projects with the EU provided it is in both our interests. Without doubt finance of the nation, GDP and world trade figures are OK but we need to move in a way that commits to overall growth - but since the overall financial feeling has been against that and favouring low interest rates and low inflation we will find it hard to develop the growth economy we need.
Amazingly wrong. The UK Treasury's own think tank the OBR has noted that already a few years post Brexit the UK GDP (a useful measure of the economy) 4% lower then it would have been had the UK been in the EU and is steadily diverging so in the medium and long terms its only going to be worse and the UK revert to being the sick man of Europe.
As to the regaining sovereignty claim in fact the opposite has happened
1) in those highly defined areas of pooled competency between EU members now more than ever the UK is a rule taker with no seat at the table
EU law is ONLY about setting up the internal market trade between members and so relates only to trade and employment rules. The EU is NOT a fully federal state like the US or Aus or Canada.
2) in those areas where every EU member has full sovereignty eg policing its borders for economic migrants, the UK is now less sovereign as the UKG has realised that problems such as migration require a joined up approach by all western nations and for the UK that means cooperative agreements with the EU such as the Dublin Accords and the UK is bound by international law such as the UN accords.
Have you looked at the accuracy of OBR prognoses - and that's what this is. Our GDP is pretty good - yes even though our overall financial position taking debt into account is not good, we are standing comfortably when you compare with say France and Germany who are also in difficult positions - France, debt, Germany income. Before we came out of the EU it was not unusual for the UK to be at the bottom of the EU heap.@@epincion
We all recognise the OBR whose projections are usually amended in a manner that is a plus to the UK. There are no figures that demonstrate the 4% you mention - yet more guesswork. @epincion
@@marjoriesherrington2772 Goldman Sachs estimates 5%
@@epincion If we had achieved that extra 4% would we now be the world's third largest exporter behind only China and the US?
Strangely, the EU cannot differentiate between cooperation and control. Their goal is total control and they offer cooperation as an incentive to achieve that. We could cooperate without giving away control but that does not benefit the EU's unelected bureaucrats.
Wow Nothing went wrong with Brexit . Brexit was an idiots idea from the beginning and could never go right !
really good watch!