Prices are dropping everywhere in real estate. I had to cut the price on my house by 12%, or $110,000 to sell my house. 4 months ago, there would have been a bidding war and it would have sold for 200K more. Everything is dropping fast and this will be worse than 2008. I'm glad I got out when I did!!
And I am sure you paid less for your new home than you would have 4 months ago and without having to deal with so much competition. And just FYI, in a normal housing market, bidding wars are almost none-existent. What we had in the last year and a half is NOT normal.
We are in a huge housing bubble, and housing bubbles always (100%) end the same way. Great buying opportunities coming in 2023, 2024 and maybe even 2025.
Couldn’t agree more. It’s a bubble, how people think prices are coming down are baffling me. Affordability that’s a different topic but home prices will 100% come down. Anywhere from 5-40%!
@@sui_wan It'll be taken from them (FORECLOSE) en masse in 2024, instead of them being able to sell, as we're already seeing some people "underwater" by a 10% loss in equity.
Nope I completely disagree, i dropped the price of my house 20% to sell it in a popular location. Higher interest rates means less buyers so the price of the home has to give. Other home prices in my state and neighboring cities are dropping fast as well.
I've already seen the price of my home in CA go down from 900k to 700k this year. Last year we had buyers paying hundreds of thousands of dollars over the asking price with multiple cash offers; those days are gone as the real estate market has rapidly changed and there are so many negatives in the economy. I don't think this video will age well. Hope that I'm wrong.
@@JesusChrist5000 lol so it goes from 'housing is great investment now' to 'in the short term it will suffer'. None of those are actually predictions. Housing will be -15% to -40% cheaper over the next 1-5 year period and depending on the market. This could change with fed policy, but don't confuse a generous fed with your 'brilliant' investing. These videos are great for tax strategies but that's it... don't believe his predictions, they are too dovish with the challenges that are ahead.
That’s absolute bs you’re home has not lost 25% in value in 5 months. CA prices are not even down YOY. I doubt u even own a home with such a dumb comment
Thank you so much gentlemen for having this conversation about real estate. Im glad I’m not the only one feeling positive about real estate. Buy only what you can financially afford, then refinance your mortgage when rates decline - because rates will decline.
True but remember most folks will need to have 20 % Equity in their property and not be 20% upside down or the banks will not refi your loan in most cases 😃
Things are looking pretty cozy right now wait until after the November midterms. The worst scenario I could see is the Fed turning on the money printers and inflation growing even further.
Demand has gone away. The mortgage interest rates are not coming down anytime soon and probably it will either go up or hover around 5.5 to 6%. The housing market is overinflated - 40 to 50% increase in the last two years is not normal. Nobody in the right minds will buy properties at this overinflated prices and high mortgage interest rates. Correction will definitely happen. Whether it is 10% or over 30% will depend upon what happens in the rest of the economy. All indications are we are moving into a recession. Bubble will pop.
Maybe no buyer of their only property would buy a property. Investors like myself who this is their business will still be buying. No one has a crystal ball. There have only been 2 times in American history that real estate prices came down double digits on a national level. Down markets force some people to sell. Distressed properties are usually in need of a great deal of repairs. I just bought a 2 unit house last week. It was priced aggressively but it was almost uninhabitable. I offered asking price with a seller carry for closing costs and a seller carry for owner financing. I put down 300k the owner is financing me the other 300k at zero % interest on a 10 year Loan. I financed 300k for nothing. Could the market crash? Do I care? Not really. The payment to him is 2500 a month. Each unit after I renovate will rent for 2500 for the first floor 3 bedroom unit and 3000 for the second and third floor duplex 4 bed 2 bath unit. My construction costs to renovate are going to cost me 120k. I will be all in at 720k and the ARV will be 875-900k. If the market tanks I don’t care I have a 2 unit building putting over 2k a month in my pocket after the mortgage, taxes and insurance. I own other buildings as well. A deal is a deal. It is all about cash flow and calculated risk.
I’m not a financial advisor. But I have distrust of financial advisors. How dare a “professional” tell me I should have rented or taken out a mortgage. Look at mortgage rates. Look at high rental prices. The best you can ever do for yourself is buying straight out in times like these. Bargain hard. Ask at least $50k off the list price. If they say no move on. Buy from an old boomer looking to downsize, not a flipper. Plan on living in the house long term. I am now living in my dream house.
I learned a lot from listening to the podcast. And to be honest I have been bin watching because there's so much common sense information. Have him on again Mr. Mathis.
The current housing situation looks worse than the outlook for the titanic. I just love the cheerleaders. Remember 2006? Sure it took many years to bottom out. Next comes layoffs, tight credit and foreclosures.
This is a straight on observation. I'm looking at housing in my area listed for $100k less than what zillow has ours appraised as, and they are not selling.
The company that screwed up its buy-offer business because they relied too much on their pricing algorithm and grossly mispriced houses for huge losses? That Zillow?
You accuse the doomsayers of missing information or stating them at the end of the article. 1. How about your ignoring the huge increase of interest rates on the horizon and the Fed saying he will bring housing down to affordable prices for first home buyers. 2. How about the radical difference between price of houses compared to incomes. Never been a bigger discrepancy. Put that together with soon coming layoffs!! 3. One more: you ignore the extreme difference between housing prices and the median price. Never deviated this much and this ALWAYS gets corrected. The chart makes it clear. Prices will be going down a lot! Dream on guys. You have ignored huge statistics indicating the opposite of your thesis. You will see in the coming months. Oh, but its different this time, right?? Hahahaha.
@@pattyb8904 The frustrating thing is I had a seller come down 300K from his original price but the house was still 200K too high. Unfortunately someone came in and bought it. Some buyers are afraid the market is going to dry up and there will be no homes to purchase. History shows that is not the case because life happens, people lose their jobs, family takes them to another state, people pass, divorce, get new jobs, etc.
@@capecrusader6932 totally agree, in my are there are some doing exactly what you stated. Still buying high instead of waiting 2 or 3 months for prices to drop even more. 3 years ago I bought my house brand new at 1800 Sq ft for 270. Now you can't get a derelict 800 Sq ft shit box for that much.
@@pattyb8904 Same where I am (Central Florida). Residential real estate prices have been rapidly dropping, but are still inflated compared to wages in this area. Residential prices will still have to drop significantly more around here before people can start buying houses.
In 2019 and before, housing was already too expensive and Fed wanted to taper. So I guess they're looking at 2015 prices as their bench mark or "normal price". When do I buy? When I see the price @ 2015 level or so. Not an advise, but that's what I would do.
Why are const costs not coming down if lumber & steel prices are dropping dramatically? PVC $ too. Its probably concrete prices that keep rising.but why are they still rising? When do you anticipate concrete prices dropping if everything is slowing down including housing starts?
That's for houses ordered 3-6 months ago. Prices had already come up to compensate for increased construction material costs. Prices will remain elevated until builders need to bring it down to compete for new sale business. If new construction homes are still in high demand, they have no reason to lower the price just yet..
One of my favorite interviews from you Toby and I've been in the loop with Neal and his syndication group for some time now. So much brilliance and great data points in this video. Thank you!
We’re all leaving the market guy’s 😉sooner or later does it really matter ? It’s a temporary solution that is fleeting. Make friends with the big guy in the sky 😊 that is lasting 😊
Before 2009 the rule was home prices NEVER go down… they might not go up but NEVER down.. wrong .. they went down huge. My mortgage was upside down for 12 years!!! And then it went to the moon
What happens if we are no longer the reserve currency of the world? What if there is a reset a jubilee and we go GOLD back and ditch the FIAT currency.
If the government promotes secrets and redacted documents without full disclosure does it matter if it is gold backed or not? The first thing we need is honest men. Look at the FBI and the CIA and the Justice system for lawlessness.
we are at the tail end of a pandemic and the front end of recession. Like said earlier in podcast, during last high inflation, rates need to go up 8 to 9 times to bring it down. So far only 4 rate hikes and we are just half way for # of rate hikes needed. No pivoting for at least 12 months from the Fed
I expected us to be at 8-9 after November. I don’t think we are allowed to see it until after some elections. They are hanging on to power by a thread. Until that changes
People are spending money but only because they’re incompetent and financially reckless and they’re using their credit that’s why the credit card debt is out of the all-time high because they’re wasting what they have and expecting more stimulus checks but eventually this is all gonna come to an end you haven’t factored in that variable yet
The housing values throughout the USA will decrease by more than 50% sooner than you can imagine. This is just my opinion based on currency issues, the USA IS BROKE.
Lol this is insane. Homes are assets and rise with inflation. The fed has printed 50% of all money in the last two years. Prices of homes won’t come down very much let alone 50% 😂
@@highnw2034 You obviously did not live in Southern California in 2008. Homes lost 50% in the Inland Empire. It took 7 years for them to recover, but unfortunately many people lost their homes because they were upside down, couldn't refinance because they had no equity, and many people lost their jobs. Nashville area homes have already lost 7 to 12% and it is still very early in this journey.
@@highnw2034 Really? Bank of America is offering zero down mortgages to low income areas. Many of the over inflated homes were purchased with 5% down over the last two years.The Fed wants the unemployment numbers to go significantly higher. Millions of people are going to lose their jobs in the next couple years. It is already happening with soft lay-offs by calling workers who moved across the country back to work. It might have some different factors but the result will be the same. Go ahead and buy now and you can rub my face in it in 2025. I hope I'm wrong but I lived through the last crash and the whole world is in a worse place right now than it was in 2008.
Back in the 80s I was paying interest rate of 20 something percent, because it was a double wide mobile home in Santa Clara County CA One of the most expensive markets in the U.S. so now it is 7 percent so that is not bad. But I have lived longer than most people and in many homes. Loved this video and all the astounding perspectives that you both have.
If you have 100 people that makes 50k a year and wants to buy a car and their is only 10 cars on the market however, the 10 cars are Lamborghinis. Guess what? They are too many cars on the market because people DON'T QUALIFY for the cars. Why do you think BLACKROCK stopped buying houses in most markets. 🤔 they can't sell them any more.
@@bobwmcgrath not sure how old you are, but do you remember the early 80's? What about the Great Recession? Not counting the normal ups and downs the market has dramatically bottomed out multiple times. This upcoming crash is also going to run in an election year which isn't going to help the uncertainty in the market. The feds raising rates, prices sky high, inflation and fuel sky high, election year, media hype, etc etc. The buyers who still qualify for a loan don't want to buy for obvious reasons. Just wait for unemployment to come into the picture. Its already on the rise...
Really there is not that complicated. As long as people still have their jobs they won't sell. Period. Best to find out why layoff is not happening, or if and when it will.
One thing the people speaking about crashes fail to talk about is homeownership rate % its near all time lows mix that with low inventory means a handful of people purchased a bunch of homes over the past 2 years which explains why home prices are high rent is high but homeownership is low. Handful of investors own homes but everyone else renting those homes they own. Only way a crash happens is if the big money let's it happen. If this were not the case homeownership rate would have went up the past 2 years not down . Also the rate at which it dropped was 2x as fast as from 2008-2012 meaning the drop from 2008-2012 in homeownership a full 2 years this time happened from 2020-last quarter 2021
If you must sell a home for less than your basis, convert it to an AirBNB for a time before doing so. This turns it into a business asset. Form 4797 Loss From The Sale Of A Business Asset allows the seller to use this loss as a deduction against all forms of income, not just Capital Gains, in the current year and to carry forward any excess loss.
If 2008 is an aberration, may be 2022 and 2023 is the end of this financial system . This debt-slavery financial system has run its course since 2008 and the last 14 years have been a kicking-the-can down the road approach until the road ends this time around
They understand it just fine. They just don't care. Blackrock and their ilk can pay cash. Affordability causes good renter and massive homelessness. Not an investors problem.
I do disagree with Neal's assessment of a Fed sharp up and sharp down of interest rates! In the 1970's, Paul Volcker kept rates high for 5-6 yrs, until Reagonomics took hold.
frigging excellent discussion. everyone complaining about 5% interest rates don't remember when rates were 18% 30 years ago. the market may not be blowing off but a simmer is still boiling. almost every time is sold a property I would have doubled it had I just kept it for another 2 to 5 years. the cycle keeps going on. now im not saying get your line of credits and mortgage your assets to buy more, im just saying invest what you can now. buy that house, rent it out and keep it for at least 5 years. or donate it to the church in a irrevocable trust, get the tax credit, continue renting it for as long as your alive, and in the meantime call the assessor and have them eliminate the yearly property tax since it belongs in essence to the non profit. in 5 years rents double up again, and now your in the positive, have a hefty tax credit of the value you paid for the property which you can use to deduct off the w2 or the sale of another property.
High end homes in DFW just keep going up up up up up. Try to buy a "NEW" high end home. It cannot be done at all. These California buyers just come with cash and pay $2M- $3M on the spot with a 10 day close. 7-8 offers on each and every high end NEW home. Old trash from the 1970's dont get offers. Rich people dont want to live in old junk.
The best part of owning a commercial construction business over 40 years is having a finger on the pulse of reality. This reinforces all the feeling I have to my core. I expected 2008 outcome to hit in 2005. Was early to mid 2020 not a recession if not short lived? Well played.
His advice is accurate but what has not been factored in is the fact that is an intentionally manufactured crisis. It’s about a reset, a complete transition to digital currency.
I'm glad we have the fed. If our economy is to hot and inflation rears up it's ugly Head the fed raises interest rates to force us to slow down. The regular guy takes it in stride. The group that does all the crying are the traders....mmmmm
Toby speaks about privacy all the time. So for this guy to say “most wealthy rent…” was a kind of a “duh” moment for me. Isn’t it, “own nothing but control everything.”… 🥴 Some questionable opinions. But Toby did say in the beginning “poor and middle class will be hit”.
When you price your house 2x over what the average person is making, 2x over what it sold for 3 years ago, and you have enough audacity, yes this seems like a crash. There are idiots selling 200k houses for 400k and they've been sitting 4 months. Nope. I hope the market continues to tumble and those people like a significant amount of money. Houses aren't ATM's, people need shelter to survive.
Sounds like you should've bought that 200k home three years ago. Instead you were too hesitant to pull the trigger then, and now you are praying on someone else's loss for your own gain. It's called capitalism. When you struggle to buy your home, let's see if you will sell it for a 50% discount all to satisfy a "stranger" who can't afford it.
I really like this guy been watching his channel ad ice reminds me of my C.P.A.father who is no longer with us, unfortunately, he's 100%, wrong real-estate will absolutely temporarily loose value 99% sure how low ? How long ? Its already coming to pass this isn't 1929, it's not 2008 and it's sire ass hell no 1980
LOL high rates are transitory because what goes up must go down. Just like Powell saying inflation is transitory last year. The QE program for housing starting with Greenspan is ending for good. We are going to rates we saw in the 1990s. Commercial and multifamily are going to get crushed due to variable rate debt.
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Nope I completely disagree, There will be a crash and house prices will drop more then what your saying. Houses here are already past 5% getting close to over 10% there are a few over 15%. This is WITHOUT the so called "recession" WE ARE IN.
I'm in London and apart from higher food prices, life is little changed. The Bank of England is perhaps just more honest about inflation than other central banks are. UK is a different kettle of fish from Europe. New Prime Minister has already stepped in to freeze energy prices for the next two years.
Watched and thumbs-uped 👍 Wages are not wrongly inflated, based on minimum wage. The problem with wages is minimum wage is so high it makes inflation and other blue colar people demand more cause now their subordinates are making what they wer making. Eliminate minimum wage and watch the recession and inflation vanish.
Echo Chamber Alert! Realtor says real estate will continue to go up with record high rates, higher unemployment, and social unrest. The lies in America are special.
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Prices are dropping everywhere in real estate. I had to cut the price on my house by 12%, or $110,000 to sell my house. 4 months ago, there would have been a bidding war and it would have sold for 200K more. Everything is dropping fast and this will be worse than 2008. I'm glad I got out when I did!!
So you made yourself homeless
Just because you couldn’t sell your house for the amount you wanted doesn’t mean there is a crash or will be worse then 2008
And I am sure you paid less for your new home than you would have 4 months ago and without having to deal with so much competition. And just FYI, in a normal housing market, bidding wars are almost none-existent. What we had in the last year and a half is NOT normal.
@@luisbuller9155
Well......that depends on where you live. Bidding wars in several towns in Oregon have been the norm for years.
"Non damaging recession" is like a "non-damaging lockdown". It's non-damaging if you ignore all the damage.
We are in a huge housing bubble, and housing bubbles always (100%) end the same way. Great buying opportunities coming in 2023, 2024 and maybe even 2025.
Couldn’t agree more. It’s a bubble, how people think prices are coming down are baffling me.
Affordability that’s a different topic but home prices will 100% come down. Anywhere from 5-40%!
People who got a 2-3% mortgage won't sell their houses.
I lost a ton on 2 So-Cal houses in the last crash. It took until 2022 for Zillow to value them at what I paid in 2006. 😳
@@sui_wan It'll be taken from them (FORECLOSE) en masse in 2024, instead of them being able to sell, as we're already seeing some people "underwater" by a 10% loss in equity.
Nope I completely disagree, i dropped the price of my house 20% to sell it in a popular location. Higher interest rates means less buyers so the price of the home has to give. Other home prices in my state and neighboring cities are dropping fast as well.
Really liked y’all’s style, delivered like true Americans. Thank you!
If we did not have the fed , markets would discover price organically instead of artificially
I've already seen the price of my home in CA go down from 900k to 700k this year. Last year we had buyers paying hundreds of thousands of dollars over the asking price with multiple cash offers; those days are gone as the real estate market has rapidly changed and there are so many negatives in the economy. I don't think this video will age well. Hope that I'm wrong.
This will not age well at all 😅
in the short term, real estate will suffer, but because of ongoing inflation, real estate will be strong in the long term, at least in nominal terms.
@@JesusChrist5000 lol so it goes from 'housing is great investment now' to 'in the short term it will suffer'. None of those are actually predictions. Housing will be -15% to -40% cheaper over the next 1-5 year period and depending on the market. This could change with fed policy, but don't confuse a generous fed with your 'brilliant' investing. These videos are great for tax strategies but that's it... don't believe his predictions, they are too dovish with the challenges that are ahead.
That’s absolute bs you’re home has not lost 25% in value in 5 months. CA prices are not even down YOY. I doubt u even own a home with such a dumb comment
Thank you so much gentlemen for having this conversation about real estate. Im glad I’m not the only one feeling positive about real estate. Buy only what you can financially afford, then refinance your mortgage when rates decline - because rates will decline.
True but remember most folks will need to have 20 % Equity in their property and not be 20% upside down or the banks will not refi your loan in most cases 😃
Things are looking pretty cozy right now wait until after the November midterms.
The worst scenario I could see is the Fed turning on the money printers and inflation growing even further.
I have changed my restaurants completely I don’t go now and I don’t really do much of anything given the prices I’ll just wait it out
Demand has gone away. The mortgage interest rates are not coming down anytime soon and probably it will either go up or hover around 5.5 to 6%. The housing market is overinflated - 40 to 50% increase in the last two years is not normal. Nobody in the right minds will buy properties at this overinflated prices and high mortgage interest rates. Correction will definitely happen. Whether it is 10% or over 30% will depend upon what happens in the rest of the economy. All indications are we are moving into a recession. Bubble will pop.
Maybe no buyer of their only property would buy a property. Investors like myself who this is their business will still be buying. No one has a crystal ball. There have only been 2 times in American history that real estate prices came down double digits on a national level. Down markets force some people to sell. Distressed properties are usually in need of a great deal of repairs. I just bought a 2 unit house last week. It was priced aggressively but it was almost uninhabitable. I offered asking price with a seller carry for closing costs and a seller carry for owner financing. I put down 300k the owner is financing me the other 300k at zero % interest on a 10 year Loan. I financed 300k for nothing. Could the market crash? Do I care? Not really. The payment to him is 2500 a month. Each unit after I renovate will rent for 2500 for the first floor 3 bedroom unit and 3000 for the second and third floor duplex 4 bed 2 bath unit. My construction costs to renovate are going to cost me 120k. I will be all in at 720k and the ARV will be 875-900k. If the market tanks I don’t care I have a 2 unit building putting over 2k a month in my pocket after the mortgage, taxes and insurance. I own other buildings as well. A deal is a deal. It is all about cash flow and calculated risk.
By far the best facts I have heard on the current market based on what I really see happening in my city and through my work experience. ❤
Thank you for watching!
Powell is late by 1 year in raising the internet rate, that's why it's going to hurt! Hurt big! Totally avoidable!
What a fascinating and insightful interview this was. Thank you both very much!
Amazing conversation, put me back on optimism ✌️💯
I’m not a financial advisor. But I have distrust of financial advisors. How dare a “professional” tell me I should have rented or taken out a mortgage. Look at mortgage rates. Look at high rental prices. The best you can ever do for yourself is buying straight out in times like these. Bargain hard. Ask at least $50k off the list price. If they say no move on. Buy from an old boomer looking to downsize, not a flipper. Plan on living in the house long term. I am now living in my dream house.
I learned a lot from listening to the podcast. And to be honest I have been bin watching because there's so much common sense information.
Have him on again Mr. Mathis.
This video literally outlines pefectly my whole thought process on the economy currently.
The current housing situation looks worse than the outlook for the titanic. I just love the cheerleaders. Remember 2006? Sure it took many years to bottom out. Next comes layoffs, tight credit and foreclosures.
This is a straight on observation. I'm looking at housing in my area listed for $100k less than what zillow has ours appraised as, and they are not selling.
The company that screwed up its buy-offer business because they relied too much on their pricing algorithm and grossly mispriced houses for huge losses? That Zillow?
Thank you for this great information, guest, and all together subject matter!!
Our pleasure, glad you enjoyed it!
Very good discussion. Nice to hear two level-headed professionals telling it like it is. Not click-bait
i agree. As long as they keep devaluing the currency, real estate may suffer in the short term but not in the long term
You accuse the doomsayers of missing information or stating them at the end of the article.
1. How about your ignoring the huge increase of interest rates on the horizon and the Fed saying he will bring housing down to affordable prices for first home buyers.
2. How about the radical difference between price of houses compared to incomes. Never been a bigger discrepancy. Put that together with soon coming layoffs!!
3. One more: you ignore the extreme difference between housing prices and the median price. Never deviated this much and this ALWAYS gets corrected. The chart makes it clear. Prices will be going down a lot!
Dream on guys. You have ignored huge statistics indicating the opposite of your thesis. You will see in the coming months. Oh, but its different this time, right?? Hahahaha.
People haven’t done their proper research if they think this guy is presenting the full story.
Prices are already dropping in Florida residential real estate. Every time I check Zillow, I see price cuts all over.
The same in the Nashville area.
Very true. In my area prices are dropping but they still aren't anywhere near normal prices. People are still asking way too much.
@@pattyb8904 The frustrating thing is I had a seller come down 300K from his original price but the house was still 200K too high. Unfortunately someone came in and bought it. Some buyers are afraid the market is going to dry up and there will be no homes to purchase. History shows that is not the case because life happens, people lose their jobs, family takes them to another state, people pass, divorce, get new jobs, etc.
@@capecrusader6932 totally agree, in my are there are some doing exactly what you stated. Still buying high instead of waiting 2 or 3 months for prices to drop even more. 3 years ago I bought my house brand new at 1800 Sq ft for 270. Now you can't get a derelict 800 Sq ft shit box for that much.
@@pattyb8904 Same where I am (Central Florida). Residential real estate prices have been rapidly dropping, but are still inflated compared to wages in this area. Residential prices will still have to drop significantly more around here before people can start buying houses.
In 2019 and before, housing was already too expensive and Fed wanted to taper. So I guess they're looking at 2015 prices as their bench mark or "normal price". When do I buy? When I see the price @ 2015 level or so. Not an advise, but that's what I would do.
The same thing real estate investment companies said in 2007.
It sounds like we have housing prices that is ahead of the wages
Why are const costs not coming down if lumber & steel prices are dropping dramatically? PVC $ too. Its probably concrete prices that keep rising.but why are they still rising? When do you anticipate concrete prices dropping if everything is slowing down including housing starts?
That's for houses ordered 3-6 months ago. Prices had already come up to compensate for increased construction material costs. Prices will remain elevated until builders need to bring it down to compete for new sale business. If new construction homes are still in high demand, they have no reason to lower the price just yet..
One of my favorite interviews from you Toby and I've been in the loop with Neal and his syndication group for some time now. So much brilliance and great data points in this video. Thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it, thank you for watching!
I never sell. I buy when the invest can achieve the ROI I am looking for.
Thank you for good news in a sea of bad by putting things in a historical perspective.
Thank you for watching the content!
We’re all leaving the market guy’s 😉sooner or later does it really matter ? It’s a temporary solution that is fleeting. Make friends with the big guy in the sky 😊 that is lasting 😊
Before 2009 the rule was home prices NEVER go down… they might not go up but NEVER down.. wrong .. they went down huge. My mortgage was upside down for 12 years!!! And then it went to the moon
That's kinda weird to base your thesis on a one month container shipping charge. China is locked down so why wouldn't shipping rates drop
Wow great show learned a lot
How can I get where to trade my Bit.coin?
Best video I've seen. Brilliant. Thanks.
What happens if we are no longer the reserve currency of the world? What if there is a reset a jubilee and we go GOLD back and ditch the FIAT currency.
If the government promotes secrets and redacted documents without full disclosure does it matter if it is gold backed or not? The first thing we need is honest men. Look at the FBI and the CIA and the Justice system for lawlessness.
We would still have recessions.
We were gold back untill the seventies. (Nixon took us off)
Look up Nesara Gesara Dr.Scott Young
we are at the tail end of a pandemic and the front end of recession. Like said earlier in podcast, during last high inflation, rates need to go up 8 to 9 times to bring it down. So far only 4 rate hikes and we are just half way for # of rate hikes needed. No pivoting for at least 12 months from the Fed
I expected us to be at 8-9 after November. I don’t think we are allowed to see it until after some elections. They are hanging on to power by a thread. Until that changes
wht happen when fed fund rate up to 5-6% in 2023, hiking slowly will cause the market drop further
People are spending money but only because they’re incompetent and financially reckless and they’re using their credit that’s why the credit card debt is out of the all-time high because they’re wasting what they have and expecting more stimulus checks but eventually this is all gonna come to an end you haven’t factored in that variable yet
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Yep, restaurants are busy, at least in the NE. You would think someone would grow a brain and make coffee at home but Starbucks is busy as ever!
The housing values throughout the USA will decrease by more than 50% sooner than you can imagine.
This is just my opinion based on currency issues, the USA IS BROKE.
Agree
Lol this is insane. Homes are assets and rise with inflation. The fed has printed 50% of all money in the last two years. Prices of homes won’t come down very much let alone 50% 😂
@@highnw2034 You obviously did not live in Southern California in 2008. Homes lost 50% in the Inland Empire. It took 7 years for them to recover, but unfortunately many people lost their homes because they were upside down, couldn't refinance because they had no equity, and many people lost their jobs. Nashville area homes have already lost 7 to 12% and it is still very early in this journey.
@@capecrusader6932 completely different situation.
@@highnw2034 Really? Bank of America is offering zero down mortgages to low income areas. Many of the over inflated homes were purchased with 5% down over the last two years.The Fed wants the unemployment numbers to go significantly higher. Millions of people are going to lose their jobs in the next couple years. It is already happening with soft lay-offs by calling workers who moved across the country back to work. It might have some different factors but the result will be the same. Go ahead and buy now and you can rub my face in it in 2025. I hope I'm wrong but I lived through the last crash and the whole world is in a worse place right now than it was in 2008.
Tony, Neil a Bob!
I think you are wrong, we will see a housing recession, prices will drop considerably.
Back in the 80s I was paying interest rate of 20 something percent, because it was a double wide mobile home in Santa Clara County CA
One of the most expensive markets in the U.S. so now it is 7 percent so that is not bad. But I have lived longer than most people and in many homes. Loved this video and all the astounding perspectives that you both have.
what about orchid island capital? ORC.
What about oil supply being cut off by current gov.?
If you have 100 people that makes 50k a year and wants to buy a car and their is only 10 cars on the market however, the 10 cars are Lamborghinis. Guess what? They are too many cars on the market because people DON'T QUALIFY for the cars. Why do you think BLACKROCK stopped buying houses in most markets. 🤔 they can't sell them any more.
I think you didn't mean Blackrock because they don't play buy and sell. They but and rent out.
2008 is the only crash, but 2020-2022 is the only time prices have ever exploded like this.
2008 was the only crash??
@@jacksonstorm3518 2008 is the only time the US housing marked has ever taken a substantial nose dive as far as I know.
@@bobwmcgrath not sure how old you are, but do you remember the early 80's? What about the Great Recession? Not counting the normal ups and downs the market has dramatically bottomed out multiple times. This upcoming crash is also going to run in an election year which isn't going to help the uncertainty in the market. The feds raising rates, prices sky high, inflation and fuel sky high, election year, media hype, etc etc. The buyers who still qualify for a loan don't want to buy for obvious reasons. Just wait for unemployment to come into the picture. Its already on the rise...
@@bobwmcgrathalso in 1929 but aside from those two crisis’ housing on a national level it hasn’t happened
In about 1991 housing prices dropped quite a bit. I paid $289,000 for a house that would have cost $330,000 6 months earlier.
Your nuts. Homes are gonna go down 25 percent.
Really there is not that complicated. As long as people still have their jobs they won't sell. Period. Best to find out why layoff is not happening, or if and when it will.
Wouldn’t this recession be different relative to the current USA debt?
One thing the people speaking about crashes fail to talk about is homeownership rate % its near all time lows mix that with low inventory means a handful of people purchased a bunch of homes over the past 2 years which explains why home prices are high rent is high but homeownership is low. Handful of investors own homes but everyone else renting those homes they own. Only way a crash happens is if the big money let's it happen. If this were not the case homeownership rate would have went up the past 2 years not down . Also the rate at which it dropped was 2x as fast as from 2008-2012 meaning the drop from 2008-2012 in homeownership a full 2 years this time happened from 2020-last quarter 2021
If you must sell a home for less than your basis, convert it to an AirBNB for a time before doing so. This turns it into a business asset. Form 4797 Loss From The Sale Of A Business Asset allows the seller to use this loss as a deduction against all forms of income, not just Capital Gains, in the current year and to carry forward any excess loss.
When anti-globalization happened, Supply chain broken, how the inflation could ever goes down, anyone could share a view?
Wow, I’m so glad that I came across this video today! Thank you!
Great video! Very informative 👏🏾
Thank you!
The 82 recission included wage increases.
If 2008 is an aberration, may be 2022 and 2023 is the end of this financial system . This debt-slavery financial system has run its course since 2008 and the last 14 years have been a kicking-the-can down the road approach until the road ends this time around
You guys don't understand demand vs affordability
They understand it just fine. They just don't care. Blackrock and their ilk can pay cash. Affordability causes good renter and massive homelessness. Not an investors problem.
Americans: complaining about housing affordability. Europeans: hold my beer
Watch Peter Schiff's analysis of what the Feds interest rate increases and strong dollar, are doing to other World economies and our allies.
Neal has one of the BEST analysis of our present economic condition!
I do disagree with Neal's assessment of a Fed sharp up and sharp down of interest rates! In the 1970's, Paul Volcker kept rates high for 5-6 yrs, until Reagonomics took hold.
frigging excellent discussion. everyone complaining about 5% interest rates don't remember when rates were 18% 30 years ago. the market may not be blowing off but a simmer is still boiling. almost every time is sold a property I would have doubled it had I just kept it for another 2 to 5 years. the cycle keeps going on. now im not saying get your line of credits and mortgage your assets to buy more, im just saying invest what you can now. buy that house, rent it out and keep it for at least 5 years. or donate it to the church in a irrevocable trust, get the tax credit, continue renting it for as long as your alive, and in the meantime call the assessor and have them eliminate the yearly property tax since it belongs in essence to the non profit. in 5 years rents double up again, and now your in the positive, have a hefty tax credit of the value you paid for the property which you can use to deduct off the w2 or the sale of another property.
22% to 24% first trust deeds lingering for years.
Non-profits have to pay property taxes, dumdum! I ran a non-profit for 26 years and had 3 Co-ops in it, and YES, we had to pay property taxes!
You don't know what the hell you're talking about!
Wow, the success of your thesis is the ability to double rents. How do you expect people to keep paying doubled rent prices?
"This little hickup?" Of all the recessions in our history - I think this one has the potential to be more like the worst one than the mild ones.
High end homes in DFW just keep going up up up up up. Try to buy a "NEW" high end home. It cannot be done at all. These California buyers just come with cash and pay $2M- $3M on the spot with a 10 day close. 7-8 offers on each and every high end NEW home. Old trash from the 1970's dont get offers. Rich people dont want to live in old junk.
Good news for the haves
Not for the have nots
Great info, thank you so much.
Unemployment numbers are down only because fed. Doesn't count people not looking for a job realrate is 15,%
The best part of owning a commercial construction business over 40 years is having a finger on the pulse of reality. This reinforces all the feeling I have to my core. I expected 2008 outcome to hit in 2005.
Was early to mid 2020 not a recession if not short lived?
Well played.
Thanks for the Info Guys !!
You bet! Hope the info was helpful!
People are running up their charge cards, people will double up or move back home with their parents.
You always bring good information ❤❤❤
His advice is accurate but what has not been factored in is the fact that is an intentionally manufactured crisis. It’s about a reset, a complete transition to digital currency.
This forecast is on point!
No it isn’t
I've seen shipping ships sitting around China, just parked.
And LA harbor is emptying out.
AN EPIC CRASH OF EVERYTHING GLOBALLY THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
Everything comes down to betting on the fed, our system is so stupid.
Guessing what some unelected officials will do
I call that gambling
I'm glad we have the fed. If our economy is to hot and inflation rears up it's ugly Head the fed raises interest rates to force us to slow down.
The regular guy takes it in stride. The group that does all the crying are the traders....mmmmm
They are building more apartments at the moment. Housing will be coming from apartments.
Toby speaks about privacy all the time. So for this guy to say “most wealthy rent…” was a kind of a “duh” moment for me. Isn’t it, “own nothing but control everything.”… 🥴 Some questionable opinions. But Toby did say in the beginning “poor and middle class will be hit”.
When you price your house 2x over what the average person is making, 2x over what it sold for 3 years ago, and you have enough audacity, yes this seems like a crash. There are idiots selling 200k houses for 400k and they've been sitting 4 months. Nope. I hope the market continues to tumble and those people like a significant amount of money. Houses aren't ATM's, people need shelter to survive.
Sounds like you should've bought that 200k home three years ago. Instead you were too hesitant to pull the trigger then, and now you are praying on someone else's loss for your own gain. It's called capitalism. When you struggle to buy your home, let's see if you will sell it for a 50% discount all to satisfy a "stranger" who can't afford it.
I really like this guy been watching his channel ad ice reminds me of my C.P.A.father who is no longer with us, unfortunately, he's 100%, wrong real-estate will absolutely temporarily loose value 99% sure how low ? How long ? Its already coming to pass this isn't 1929, it's not 2008 and it's sire ass hell no 1980
Strong? How is this strong? Strong is not needing bank money
LOL high rates are transitory because what goes up must go down. Just like Powell saying inflation is transitory last year. The QE program for housing starting with Greenspan is ending for good. We are going to rates we saw in the 1990s. Commercial and multifamily are going to get crushed due to variable rate debt.
HOW STRONG IS IT NOW, give me a break.
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Toby, this is an excellent interview on macroeconomics and financials!
Nope I completely disagree, There will be a crash and house prices will drop more then what your saying. Houses here are already past 5% getting close to over 10% there are a few over 15%. This is WITHOUT the so called "recession" WE ARE IN.
Housing will decline that has to happen.
Don't we have 2 million people coming over the southern border this year?
Seriously the best show I’ve seen from anyone in a long time!!!
Thank you so much, we love to hear that!
🥇
Toby, can you please work on your vocabulary, just a little, please?
I love your videos. Their made at a 3rd grade level that I can comprehend.
Those that comprehend are masters.
Those that understand are slaves.
Remain Strong 😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I'm in London and apart from higher food prices, life is little changed. The Bank of England is perhaps just more honest about inflation than other central banks are. UK is a different kettle of fish from Europe. New Prime Minister has already stepped in to freeze energy prices for the next two years.
With a 3 day food supply. Your entire country will starve in the 2nd quarter of 2023
@@kylemigueis Possibly, apart from those who are self-sufficient or who, like me, have citizenship of other countries.
why did this guys push to the people into buying house this is bad
Recession Joe is now becoming Depression Joe. 🥴🚴♂️🏳🗳🔚😂
Samrit! Please take a look!
Watched and thumbs-uped 👍
Wages are not wrongly inflated, based on minimum wage.
The problem with wages is minimum wage is so high it makes inflation and other blue colar people demand more cause now their subordinates are making what they wer making.
Eliminate minimum wage and watch the recession and inflation vanish.
Nothing goes up forever. Housing crash will come, the only qt is when.
Echo Chamber Alert! Realtor says real estate will continue to go up with record high rates, higher unemployment, and social unrest. The lies in America are special.