Pay close attention to tip #2. Player props were more lucrative for my NFL betting, especially if you do fantasy football because the two correlate. Also WNBA is a nice market to get into, only 12 teams which makes it easier to research.
I like your diplomatic way of saying, "if you're gonna place these sucker bets you better be rich already because you'll be burning through your bankroll early and often.
I'm a low stakes card counter seeking other options because of lack of availability at beatable games due to covid. Casinos who were hardly offering authentic blackjack to begin with, are offering even less now. Changing the rules. Changing the payout. Continuous shuffle machines, 3 seats per tables etc etc...Your channel is great. Just started a sports bankroll as well as a Video Poker one.
Sports betting can definitely be another tool on your belt to profit in casinos. It's a bit different than card counting and I think the biggest adjustment that card counters have to get over when betting sports is that you can't 100% quantify your edge. You're dealing with much more uncertainty than the finite world of 52-card decks. Good luck!
Hey Captain, I'm a poker player who is looking to broaden his horizons. You're channel is exactly the type of content I was looking for. Thanks a bunch
Perfect. I think the crossover from poker to sports betting is easier than say the crossover from other types of gambling. You probably already have an innate sense of risk v. reward and how to gauge uncertainty in your projections.
Another great video sir. One correction though: if you apply Kelly staking correctly, technically there's no risk of ruin because when you're on a losing streak you stake as a percentage of your smaller bankroll so your bet sizes in $ will get smaller and smaller. There is a decent chance of losing half or more of your bankroll that way, but that's not quite the same as going broke.
Good point, although since you can't exactly quantify your edge in sports betting, it is possible to grossly over-bet your bankroll with Kelly. You ultimately reach a point where your betsize is less than the minimum.
@@CaptainJackAndrews True enough, its very hard to quantify your edge, as PlusEV deftly discussed in his articles. Solution #1: use fractional Kelly sizing to minimize chance of over-betting. Solution #2: understand the "real" Kelly criterion to see why you can't bet as much with multiple simultaneous bets. Solution #3: stay tuned...
Thanks for the Video clip! Forgive me for chiming in, I would love your opinion. Have you heard about - Riddleagan Kings Software Remedy (do a search on google)? It is an awesome one off guide for getting a winning betting system minus the normal expense. Ive heard some extraordinary things about it and my best friend Jordan after a lifetime of fighting got excellent success with it.
The most important aspect is to be an insurance contingency into your strategy........two thirds must be the insurance......one third the bet How you build your insurance will vary depending on the amount of games covered...that's the key
Decent video, is it true that one new sportsbook popped up offer $7,500 in first matched bet? That's insane. Here in the UK people spend their days scooping up £30 offers... you guys should be taking a road trip around the different states just to kick the hell out of this!!!
Indeed. Many people are. For a while, Caesars let you do a $5000 risk-free bet in each of the states they operate in (which was 11 of them). There were many 6-figure road trips organized by savvy players and their buddies. (that loophole since closed)
Just wanted to stop by to say I love the content. You've really changed the way I think of sports betting. I live in IL, so just now starting to get options here that aren't offshore. Been sharing your stuff with some buddies of mine too. Keep up the good work!
Good stuff as always Jack. KIV pic popping up in the "Kelly Betting" section caught me off guard and gave me a good laugh. To echo what was said in the video, I've easily added 100's to all my accounts here in CO taking advantage of all the crazy odds boost promos and 'no brainer'-type bets. Basically free money. Hoping you post some NFL content so I can be less of a donk, but understand the market efficiency would make that a challenge.
Good NFL content will be a challenge - and I doubt anyone wants to hear me keep droning on that you can't beat the NFL. The NFL is special though, because you basically are betting for 6 days just to reach 1 event day and the information and the angles change over the course of those 6 days. I'm going to try to make a video that outlines the evolution of the NFL bet over the course of the week.
Very smart, like.....I'm on the East coast. You should teach margins, extremely profitable! I'm willing to help with contents. I'm a regular at Fanduel. Sincerely , Neil
PointsBet will be next, followed by BetMGM. I'll wait until Circa does a bit more expansion before giving them the 3-minute treatment. I don't have them here in NJ, so my hands-on eperience is limited.
I'm also a NJ resident, and would love to see Circa establish a presence in the state. Do you have any "inside" info on whether they have plans to do so? Thanks for all the great insight and content you're providing. I've watched all your videos and followed many of your book/website suggestions. Keep up the great work; I know I'm not alone when I say that you've single-handedly increased my ROI.
Circa has decided not to target NJ in the immediate future. However, there are hopefully some other operators who are looking to compete in NJ based solely on price and dealing to the sharp segment of the market. I'm optimistic the best NJ operator is still yet to come.
Thanks for making this video. I am a rec sports better. In MI where online sports betting just became legal. I have a smaller bank roll of $200 and betting $5 to $10 a game. I have done well and made $400. I put the $400 in to bank account. While keeping $200 in two sport betting accounts. My question in your opinion how big should a rec better bankroll be? When should should I put money back in to my bank account? To show real signs of profits.
How much you keep in a sportsbook account and how much is kept in other liquid forms elsewhere is up to you. With these regulated shops in the US moving money into your account is often instant, withdrawing money takes time. So keeping enough money ready to use for an opportunity is the best approach - whether that is in the account or ready to deposit. My advice to you is open up more accounts so you can benefit from line shopping when you bet.
No sarcasm or disrespect to implied here: If we never touch our bankroll, what are we winning money for? Is there an amount of money where we can be comfortable just enjoying the profit?
Sure, that's your personal choice. It's a lot like investing and compound interest. If you have an account that makes 8% annually and you have $50,000 in that account, you could take out your $4,000 gain after a year, or you could leave it in the account and in 10 years you'd have $111,000. With sports betting you are rolling over your bankroll far more frequently, so the rate gain can be much higher than standard investments for the savvy player.
Had a bankroll of 150 got it up to 1500 within a month doing it slowly. Games I like bet about 15-20% of bankroll, and those I don't I use alternate lines and parlay 2-3 teams using 5-10% of bankroll.
I’m at 200 right now up from 40. Hope to get up there like that. I’ve been making solid bets but just get impatient. Gotta work on my discipline. You do mostly money lines?
I recorded two videos at once. One being the screen capture with the PowerPoint presentation and then the other being the camera pointed at my face. Then I sync the two videos in Adobe Premiere. This was almost 2 yrs ago when I was just learning. Hopefully my production skills have improved since then.
That's true.... if the house has an edge. If you can get an edge (like in some of the ways Jack describes) and are smart about maximizing those edges you can do quite well!
This was great, thanks, I have been researching "all soccer predictions for today" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Ever heard of - Cadenkan Soccer Subtle - (should be on google have a look ) ? Ive heard some amazing things about it and my colleague got excellent success with it.
thank you.i would appreciate if you would consider a video dedicated on how to actually bet the promos that you discussed on one of the sections to translate the edge in the promo to real gain in your acount at the bookie. also i noticed in the video you overlooked a bit the danger( especially for new people of putting money into bad bookies that never pay. they either limit you or simply erase your account manufacturing a phony reason YOU are being illegal, not them. that can be easily devastating for a new bettor. thank you. i hope i improved a bit your content with this comment, thank you again for considering the proposal
I love this content 👏 Just one question though.. you mentioned you're not supposed to withdraw money from bankroll etc. But how're you supposed to make money of off betting? Like when is it ok to withdraw money at the end? Keep up the good work. 👍
@@CaptainJackAndrews Can you elaborate more on this? If you were trying to make a living with this when do you pay yourself a dividend from your winnings?
Hi Cap - could you share some high variance ideas; maybe a video. Match betting or promo hunting just isn’t worth the time esp for business guys and poker players - sustainable EV and high $ amounts is what excites us. Fab content btw - love it.
Good idea Goonjan, I'll put that on my list of video ideas. The high variance approach isn't for everyone, but perhaps there is an audience out there that would appreciate it.
Thanks for noticing. I decided to use 1080p going forward starting with this video. I had assumed 720p was standard for most, but after some research I found that most videos are now uploaded at 1080p. I still use 24 fps since that's a bit more cinematic and there's not a lot of action in my videos.
Love your videos! My buddy and I jumped into the world of online sports gambling a few months ago and I wish we had seen your videos then. We joke that we came to the same conclusions and tips that you provide but it was costly!! Questions for you: are there any sites out there that track arb angles between the different gambling sites? It’s tedious and I want to rip my eyes out sometimes. Second question: trying to follow a zero variance, live hedge bet model (to take advantage of live profit boosts) will give almost anyone heart issues...aside from wagering at halftime or intermissions of games, any tips? Any sports tend to have more static lines that will make it easier to live, hedge bet? NHL games have been decent so far...Last question-ever think about making a video about the psychology of odds boosts bets, promo bets, profit boost bets, etc? I’ve learned to sniff out the bs promo bets very quickly that have low chances of hitting.
Thanks for the enthusiastic comment John. I'll do my best to answer your questions: 1) I've mentioned before using OddsBoom which shows arbitrage situations in the markets they track. However, as you've probably found, the best arbitrage situations exist deep in the derivative markets. 2) Live wagering is tough, you really need to stick to commercials and timeout as best you can. Since you may have started after MLB ended, you'll find that MLB is the easiest with the breaks between innings providing plenty of opportunity. 3) I will definitely have more videos around promos and bonuses and they best ways to approach all the scenarios. Consider my video on how to use a Free Bet to be a proof-of-concept on what's to come. Just looking for the best possible way to present the course.
Great video, thanks for the content much appreciated. Good advice for any betting bankroll, really can be applied universally to any gambling bankroll management.
Great video very informative about limits and expectations. My question is would it be worth to buy picks from a handicapper for say 1000$ for a years worth of picks? Or do you believes they cant have that much of an edge over the house.
Really good information for newbies. I have only been betting on sport's now for a couple of year's as it just recently became legal. However I have been passionate about sport's my entire life and I would love to get to a point to where I could do this full-time as opposed to working a regular job. I do hear stories from people about getting banned from certain book's for winning. I mean how often and how much does one have to win before a sportsbook bans an individual? Do you know anyone personally that have been banned for winning? That's crazy.
Getting limited to very small limits is common among a lot of the recreational sportsbooks that dominate the US landscape these days. There's no threshold that triggers it. If you look like the kind of bettor who might win, they'll limit you. Personally, I got limited by DraftKings after just a few weeks of play, I was down $600 at the time. I've heard of others limited just because they bet on a line that moved vastly in their favor due to injury or lineup changes. That's where the art of sports betting is required rather than just the science of sports betting. I talk about that frequently in my videos. Check out some others - as well as my forthcoming video when I hit 10k subscribers, which will be How to Make $100k/yr Betting Sports.
Couldn't agree more on the "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". I placed an arb wager and the book eventually cancelled one side of the bet due to an 'error', basically, they made a mistake with the odds they posted and cancelled all bets on that side. Now I'm stuck with Steelers to make the playoffs in 2021 FML.
I think the free money bookmakers offer almost always isn't worth it because they most come with minimum bet requirements and a high cost of capital which means you end up taking riskier bets just breakeven. as you said, free money is an excellent LTV as bookmakers know they'll make their money back and if they don't they know they're dealing with a sharp with an edge.
I got got by a promo. It had a roll over x6 think and had to wager a certain amount before I cud withdraw. In the end I contacted them paid about 50 to take the roll over out and withdrew what I needed.
Great content as always, sir. I'm relatively new to sports betting, as I just turned 21 this year and my state (Illinois) has just got on the sports betting wagon. Nevertheless, I have been fortunate enough to stumble on some success, particularly with Boxing betting. I wish you continued success both in wagering and on TH-cam, and I look forward to following all of your future content!
@@raygordonteacheschess5501 Point 1: I don't have to be an expert on sports betting to note that the video was informative. Point 2: I bet I've won more betting wagering on sports than you have.
This is awesome, Jack. I’m in Pennsylvania, how often do all of the major sports books have odds boost that actually provide a large enough edge to bet?
Frequently, but they're not all created equal. I'll be making a video about how to determine how good an odds boost is. Typically, the closer the starting price is to even money, the more valuable the boost. The gain from going from +100 to +125 is better than going from +500 to +550.
@@CaptainJackAndrews awesome. And as far as the starting price, are you just using the price that the book in question is stating the regular price usually is? Or checking out the entire market if available at other books?
@@MiddayMantra Right, you can't always trust their price to be the fair market price. For instance, a couple weeks ago during a MNF Halftime, FoxBet ran a promo for a certain player to score a TD in the 3Q. The boosted odds went from +250 up to +350. However, when I checked FanDuel, I noticed odds for that same player to score a TD in the 3Q were +450 sans boost.
only change your kelly every 1000 bets, on the arbitrage beting I had a 10% arb bet one day bet 800 on one side and 1k on the other and the 800 side voided my bet before the game even started and gave me my 800 back. I was really lucky that the one left hit or I would have lost 1k
What about the rollover on the promos. Thats why i never use them. They always have like 10× rollover so you have to wager 10× the amount you get in your promo before you can make a withdraw.
Hey Jack , loving your channel ...so far I've only been betting the NFL the last 2 years . I had 52% over 40 games the first season, 58% the second season with 40+ games the second season also....in the video are you saying this isn't sustainable, I do know a lot about the teams, their coaching styles,weather and such....but am I possibly just getting lucky....just going by your thoughts in this video........Also it's the only sport I'm competent in , as in I don't bet in other sports yet...considering hockey/baseball but just been watching line movement so far....any thoughts about a second and 3rd sport to add to fill the other months of the year that are beatable?
Thanks for the kind words. One point I like to stress is that you don't need to know a sport to beat a sports market. You just need to know how the market acts. My advice for another sport to add is to find a sport that doesn't attract all the attention, the market will likely be far less efficient.
Prop's prop's props till you prop your self up ! that's the only way with sports Book in my opinion , at least your not being influenced buy the book .
Do you actually believe that Sportsbook are tracking specific user’s habits? Especially when they’re betting under $100/bet. I highly doubt they’re stalking individual users when they have literally millions of users to sort through, just seems like it wouldn’t be worth it.
I do, actually. They are constantly looking for people who bet with non-recreational tendencies no matter if they win or lose or how much they bet. It's a ridiculous snipe hunt for them, but they do it. Recently gave an example on my Twitter feed about a sportsbook that refused to take my action after just 24 bets, each under $500. I realize that's more than the
Absolutely, I was kicked off 90% of sites due to “ don’t except sharp money” I was betting a lot but I was cancelled at books I was losing too as well! I had to call Mgr just to make $100 bet
Hi Just like and subscribed your channel. Please do keep the great work going. thank you for your wise recommendations ; however, Someone living outside the States i.e. Istanbul/TURKEY, do you have any advice as to which international supports book or one in the states that would take international customers? Also would you share your notes/screenshots of your real betting of any day on NBA games? That I think would really reinforce the theories your are so well teaching here. Regards
None of the US regulated books will be able to take customers from outside the US. Turkey is a bit of a gray market as it's only legal through the state-run operator. There are a lot of unregulated and somewhat illegal ways to bet sports in Turkey but it's not a market that makes it easy on the aspiring sports bettor. As for my betting, I prefer to keep my action private. Several reasons for this. First, a small sample size proves nothing. I could show you a winning day or a losing day but it wouldn't prove anything. Second, I'd rather not tip my hand on what inefficiencies in the market I am exploiting. That would only aid the market in being more efficient.
You mean how do you pick winners? Most don't. Money management is crap it's "how to turn a negative ROI into a positive ROI" try that in a game of chance sometime.
You make all these good points, but the best way to learn is through experience. My suggestion is to make a video where you start with $1,000 in your betting account. Show your bets, the amount and the out come for an entire NFL season. I can listen to advice from GOD, but it doesn't sink in. I need to see it. Would you do that ? I appreciate your current advice but I need to actually see the process to help me.
It's tough for me to recommend any specific offshore book. I no longer use any post-up offshore books. I recommend googling around to see what the buzz is on any book you are thinking of depositing with.
I just found your channel. I have been betting mainly college football the last 20 years. I never bet big so I never lost big but eventually the book would get me because I would lose more than I would win. Your information is very useful and thanks for sharing the knowledge.
Thanks. Good stuff. Do you ever dabel into the Asian market (basketball/baseball) ? I'm just scared how regulated they monitoring foxing? But I guess that can go on anywhere. Damned if u do, damned if you don't. Lol
Thanks so much for the great pandemic content! I'm a part-time advantage player, but I have an underlying health condition that's going to keep me out of casinos until there's a vaccine. I've got zero prior sport betting experience. I've been using the pandemic time studying "The Logic Of Sports Betting", watching your videos, and building some models. I feel like I'm ready to start getting my feet wet - and I've hit a snag. My state has no prospect of legalizing sports betting - and I'm not close enough to the border to make frequent trips. I've looked at signing up for some offshore books, but I seem to get the "We don't accept bets from your jurisdiction" message a lot. Would you consider making a "How To" video for people in my situation? Is there a way to get some bets down from home, or has the study time been wasted?
Thanks Doug. You're in a tough spot. I don't speak much to offshore books because it's really tough to speak in absolute terms with them It's a very nuanced question when it comes to finding where to bet. You have two major options when it comes to wagering "offshore": 1) Post up accounts where you deposit 2) PayPerHead accounts where you play on credit and have a local agent or bookie that you settle up with. In scenario #1, you want to stick with the major sportsbooks. You'll have the lowest chance of complications with them. You'll also need to get familiar with Bitcoin. Be careful with promos offshore, they often have arduous terms and catches. In scenario #2, you need to find a local guy. Tough to start from nothing, even tougher in this day with less social interaction. Once you find one, finding more is not hard. There aren't promos here and advantage play angles will likely result in either being cut off or stiffed so tread carefully. #1 is probably easier to a new player.
I was going to use a 30% re-up Re-up bonus. I was told to wait and see how I do the next day,because of roll over.He told me that they don’t give away money?What is a rollover on my bonus?Why is it not good?
Thanks for the videos Cpt. Jack. I have 2 questions. 1) Is there a way to find out which legal sportsbooks are backed by the same parent company so that I don't have my bankroll dispersed in two sportsbooks that have identical lines? 2) Would I get booted or penalized from a sportsbook if I take their deposit bonus and use it to bet on both sides of the same game? Ex: with a $500 deposit bonus in site credit, bet $250 on both sides of a -110 game to guarantee $227 is added to my account.
On question 2, betting on both sides of the same game to playthrough bonus money or on any sort of promo is a big no-no and the books T&C typically reserve the right to take that bonus away
Thanks for watching Brian! 1) Good point about identical lines, that definitely inhibits the value of keeping your money distributed. You can google around to find which operators use which software, but you'll often be led to affiliate sites that simply want you to sign up through them. They don't always offer the correct answer either. If you want to post your state here, I'll give you a quick run-down. If you prefer DM, you can contact me @capjack2000 on Twitter. 2) As C Deli pointed out, you don't want to bet both sides with bonus money at the same sportsbook. They don't like that too much.
Captain Jack Andrews I just DM you on Twitter with the exact same issues as a new bettor under the pandemic and I live in Brooklyn NYC I don’t even know where to start to find the books to even use.. love the videos been watching since 6am to learn..
So at wat point is it oky to use the money on u make for life. Or do u jus keep building the bankroll.. is there a blueprint to how to be able use ur winnings?
Treating your bankroll like an annuity where you take profit on the winnings but leave a set amount untouched is one option. For me, it was the point at which I was having trouble getting 1% of my bankroll into play anymore. That was the ceiling point where I started to use winnings towards life things or invested it into other ventures.
Soon. The barrier is the US Wire Act which prevents sports betting from crossing state lines. As such exchanges would suffer from liquidity caps. When the Wire Act falls, exchanges will make a lot more sense.
To subscribe to this channel? No sir. It's just a way for TH-cam to show you when I have new content available for viewing. It encourages me to keep making content knowing there are people actively waiting for my next video.
Bro sign up promotions are the worst why you telling people about it. Most of them have a rollover of insane amounts. Do you think these sports books are idiots or something and they're just giving you free money.
I think you’re confusing offshore promos with the regulated US books - most of whom have only a 1x rollover requirement. And yes, they are essentially giving away free money.
Honestly I’m more comfortable with some one pointing a 40 cal in my face and say give me your money than the way sport books Rob me daily. Everything is a suckers bet.
If your willing to work together and listen to me then I can help you bro 👍 I'm doing this for two reasons so its upfront and you know I'm not trying g to fuck you. #1 turning a losing sports bettor into a winner builds trust and loyalty and eventually I'll charge you and if your smart and honest you'll pay me. #2 its great content for my future sports betting guide and will make for an excellent testamonial when the time comes......Anyways my client *who's now my friend* has worked with me for over a year and THOSE are the people I want to build with 👍 Now here's the bad side...... I dont help sports betting degenerates who don't want to LISTEN or LEARN, my goal is to work with honest people who can pay and I will do everything I can to kickass for them and teach them......so thats what I offer 🔥🦂💯
Pay close attention to tip #2. Player props were more lucrative for my NFL betting, especially if you do fantasy football because the two correlate. Also WNBA is a nice market to get into, only 12 teams which makes it easier to research.
Starting with $50. Let's see what we can do.
Appreciate the videos Captain Jack!
Update?
@@rcellis6767 bump
Pretty much starting at the same starting point good luck
Bankrupt my guy?
so much info, i love it! pulling an all nighter like back in my college days to take down notes and develop strategy
Some good info here. I keep trying to get a friend of mine to take advantage of promos but he is so comfortable with the site he uses.
I like your diplomatic way of saying, "if you're gonna place these sucker bets you better be rich already because you'll be burning through your bankroll early and often.
😂 Mann for real
I'm a low stakes card counter seeking other options because of lack of availability at beatable games due to covid. Casinos who were hardly offering authentic blackjack to begin with, are offering even less now. Changing the rules. Changing the payout. Continuous shuffle machines, 3 seats per tables etc etc...Your channel is great. Just started a sports bankroll as well as a Video Poker one.
Sports betting can definitely be another tool on your belt to profit in casinos. It's a bit different than card counting and I think the biggest adjustment that card counters have to get over when betting sports is that you can't 100% quantify your edge. You're dealing with much more uncertainty than the finite world of 52-card decks. Good luck!
Hey Captain, I'm a poker player who is looking to broaden his horizons. You're channel is exactly the type of content I was looking for. Thanks a bunch
Perfect. I think the crossover from poker to sports betting is easier than say the crossover from other types of gambling. You probably already have an innate sense of risk v. reward and how to gauge uncertainty in your projections.
Props, hadnt given them much thought but will going forward. Great insight!
Another great video sir. One correction though: if you apply Kelly staking correctly, technically there's no risk of ruin because when you're on a losing streak you stake as a percentage of your smaller bankroll so your bet sizes in $ will get smaller and smaller. There is a decent chance of losing half or more of your bankroll that way, but that's not quite the same as going broke.
Good point, although since you can't exactly quantify your edge in sports betting, it is possible to grossly over-bet your bankroll with Kelly. You ultimately reach a point where your betsize is less than the minimum.
@@CaptainJackAndrews True enough, its very hard to quantify your edge, as PlusEV deftly discussed in his articles. Solution #1: use fractional Kelly sizing to minimize chance of over-betting. Solution #2: understand the "real" Kelly criterion to see why you can't bet as much with multiple simultaneous bets. Solution #3: stay tuned...
I love watching the money grow slowly. I like doing prop and spread bets. Turning things into teasers is also good for me
Thanks for the Video clip! Forgive me for chiming in, I would love your opinion. Have you heard about - Riddleagan Kings Software Remedy (do a search on google)? It is an awesome one off guide for getting a winning betting system minus the normal expense. Ive heard some extraordinary things about it and my best friend Jordan after a lifetime of fighting got excellent success with it.
The most important aspect is to be an insurance contingency into your strategy........two thirds must be the insurance......one third the bet
How you build your insurance will vary depending on the amount of games covered...that's the key
Decent video, is it true that one new sportsbook popped up offer $7,500 in first matched bet? That's insane. Here in the UK people spend their days scooping up £30 offers... you guys should be taking a road trip around the different states just to kick the hell out of this!!!
Indeed. Many people are. For a while, Caesars let you do a $5000 risk-free bet in each of the states they operate in (which was 11 of them). There were many 6-figure road trips organized by savvy players and their buddies.
(that loophole since closed)
You have open my eyes I appreciate all the hard work in your videos
Just wanted to stop by to say I love the content. You've really changed the way I think of sports betting. I live in IL, so just now starting to get options here that aren't offshore. Been sharing your stuff with some buddies of mine too. Keep up the good work!
Great to hear! Thank you. Plenty more bonuses up for grabs in IL in the coming weeks. Get yours!
I love the intro music
Good stuff as always Jack. KIV pic popping up in the "Kelly Betting" section caught me off guard and gave me a good laugh. To echo what was said in the video, I've easily added 100's to all my accounts here in CO taking advantage of all the crazy odds boost promos and 'no brainer'-type bets. Basically free money.
Hoping you post some NFL content so I can be less of a donk, but understand the market efficiency would make that a challenge.
Good NFL content will be a challenge - and I doubt anyone wants to hear me keep droning on that you can't beat the NFL. The NFL is special though, because you basically are betting for 6 days just to reach 1 event day and the information and the angles change over the course of those 6 days. I'm going to try to make a video that outlines the evolution of the NFL bet over the course of the week.
Great video, Captain. I look forward to more! New to all this in Tennessee..
Tennis is a great sport for arbitrage betting.
How
@@duncantunje6410 bet on both you'll always win, in tennis there cannot be a tie
where were u all the years where i pissed all my money away? i love ur videos thx
Very smart, like.....I'm on the East coast. You should teach margins, extremely profitable!
I'm willing to help with contents. I'm a regular at Fanduel. Sincerely , Neil
Great content as always. Looking forward to your next online sportsbook review. Would be very interested in seeing one on BetMGM and Circa.
PointsBet will be next, followed by BetMGM. I'll wait until Circa does a bit more expansion before giving them the 3-minute treatment. I don't have them here in NJ, so my hands-on eperience is limited.
I'm also a NJ resident, and would love to see Circa establish a presence in the state. Do you have any "inside" info on whether they have plans to do so? Thanks for all the great insight and content you're providing. I've watched all your videos and followed many of your book/website suggestions. Keep up the great work; I know I'm not alone when I say that you've single-handedly increased my ROI.
Circa has decided not to target NJ in the immediate future. However, there are hopefully some other operators who are looking to compete in NJ based solely on price and dealing to the sharp segment of the market. I'm optimistic the best NJ operator is still yet to come.
Thanks for making this video. I am a rec sports better. In MI where online sports betting just became legal. I have a smaller bank roll of $200 and betting $5 to $10 a game. I have done well and made $400. I put the $400 in to bank account. While keeping $200 in two sport betting accounts.
My question in your opinion how big should a rec better bankroll be? When should should I put money back in to my bank account? To show real signs of profits.
How much you keep in a sportsbook account and how much is kept in other liquid forms elsewhere is up to you. With these regulated shops in the US moving money into your account is often instant, withdrawing money takes time. So keeping enough money ready to use for an opportunity is the best approach - whether that is in the account or ready to deposit. My advice to you is open up more accounts so you can benefit from line shopping when you bet.
No sarcasm or disrespect to implied here: If we never touch our bankroll, what are we winning money for? Is there an amount of money where we can be comfortable just enjoying the profit?
Sure, that's your personal choice. It's a lot like investing and compound interest. If you have an account that makes 8% annually and you have $50,000 in that account, you could take out your $4,000 gain after a year, or you could leave it in the account and in 10 years you'd have $111,000. With sports betting you are rolling over your bankroll far more frequently, so the rate gain can be much higher than standard investments for the savvy player.
Had a bankroll of 150 got it up to 1500 within a month doing it slowly. Games I like bet about 15-20% of bankroll, and those I don't I use alternate lines and parlay 2-3 teams using 5-10% of bankroll.
I’m at 200 right now up from 40. Hope to get up there like that. I’ve been making solid bets but just get impatient. Gotta work on my discipline. You do mostly money lines?
@@uAintliveifudontthiz yup if I’m doing spreads I always alter the lines too by a lot 😂
You will go broke EVENTUALLY using that strategy. GL
subscribed for the awsome wealth of knowledge. All the way from New Zealand. Angles baby, Lets go!
Thanks but my newer stuff is over on the Unabated channel: TH-cam.com/unabated
Hey Captain Jack! I was curious what video recording software you used to create this video? Or if you used an editor? Please let me know! Thank you
I recorded two videos at once. One being the screen capture with the PowerPoint presentation and then the other being the camera pointed at my face. Then I sync the two videos in Adobe Premiere. This was almost 2 yrs ago when I was just learning. Hopefully my production skills have improved since then.
The quickest way to end up with a small fortune gambling, is to start off with a large fortune.
That's true.... if the house has an edge. If you can get an edge (like in some of the ways Jack describes) and are smart about maximizing those edges you can do quite well!
This was great, thanks, I have been researching "all soccer predictions for today" for a while now, and I think this has helped. Ever heard of - Cadenkan Soccer Subtle - (should be on google have a look ) ? Ive heard some amazing things about it and my colleague got excellent success with it.
Amber hahaha that would mean you are gambling on negative ev games
thank you.i would appreciate if you would consider a video dedicated on how to actually bet the promos that you discussed on one of the sections to translate the edge in the promo to real gain in your acount at the bookie. also i noticed in the video you overlooked a bit the danger( especially for new people of putting money into bad bookies that never pay. they either limit you or simply erase your account manufacturing a phony reason YOU are being illegal, not them. that can be easily devastating for a new bettor. thank you. i hope i improved a bit your content with this comment, thank you again for considering the proposal
I love this content 👏
Just one question though.. you mentioned you're not supposed to withdraw money from bankroll etc. But how're you supposed to make money of off betting? Like when is it ok to withdraw money at the end?
Keep up the good work. 👍
Your bankroll is the total amount you have for betting, it doesn't mean the amount you have currently on deposit in a book.
@@CaptainJackAndrews got you! Thanks for the reply 🙏
@@CaptainJackAndrews Can you elaborate more on this? If you were trying to make a living with this when do you pay yourself a dividend from your winnings?
Hi Cap - could you share some high variance ideas; maybe a video. Match betting or promo hunting just isn’t worth the time esp for business guys and poker players - sustainable EV and high $ amounts is what excites us.
Fab content btw - love it.
Good idea Goonjan, I'll put that on my list of video ideas. The high variance approach isn't for everyone, but perhaps there is an audience out there that would appreciate it.
Good stuff! Did you upgrade your camera recently? The image looks sharper
Thanks for noticing. I decided to use 1080p going forward starting with this video. I had assumed 720p was standard for most, but after some research I found that most videos are now uploaded at 1080p. I still use 24 fps since that's a bit more cinematic and there's not a lot of action in my videos.
Love your videos! My buddy and I jumped into the world of online sports gambling a few months ago and I wish we had seen your videos then. We joke that we came to the same conclusions and tips that you provide but it was costly!! Questions for you: are there any sites out there that track arb angles between the different gambling sites? It’s tedious and I want to rip my eyes out sometimes. Second question: trying to follow a zero variance, live hedge bet model (to take advantage of live profit boosts) will give almost anyone heart issues...aside from wagering at halftime or intermissions of games, any tips? Any sports tend to have more static lines that will make it easier to live, hedge bet? NHL games have been decent so far...Last question-ever think about making a video about the psychology of odds boosts bets, promo bets, profit boost bets, etc? I’ve learned to sniff out the bs promo bets very quickly that have low chances of hitting.
Thanks for the enthusiastic comment John. I'll do my best to answer your questions:
1) I've mentioned before using OddsBoom which shows arbitrage situations in the markets they track. However, as you've probably found, the best arbitrage situations exist deep in the derivative markets.
2) Live wagering is tough, you really need to stick to commercials and timeout as best you can. Since you may have started after MLB ended, you'll find that MLB is the easiest with the breaks between innings providing plenty of opportunity.
3) I will definitely have more videos around promos and bonuses and they best ways to approach all the scenarios. Consider my video on how to use a Free Bet to be a proof-of-concept on what's to come. Just looking for the best possible way to present the course.
Great video, thanks for the content much appreciated.
Good advice for any betting bankroll, really can be applied universally to any gambling bankroll management.
Great video very informative about limits and expectations. My question is would it be worth to buy picks from a handicapper for say 1000$ for a years worth of picks? Or do you believes they cant have that much of an edge over the house.
Really good information for newbies. I have only been betting on sport's now for a couple of year's as it just recently became legal. However I have been passionate about sport's my entire life and I would love to get to a point to where I could do this full-time as opposed to working a regular job. I do hear stories from people about getting banned from certain book's for winning. I mean how often and how much does one have to win before a sportsbook bans an individual? Do you know anyone personally that have been banned for winning? That's crazy.
Getting limited to very small limits is common among a lot of the recreational sportsbooks that dominate the US landscape these days. There's no threshold that triggers it. If you look like the kind of bettor who might win, they'll limit you. Personally, I got limited by DraftKings after just a few weeks of play, I was down $600 at the time. I've heard of others limited just because they bet on a line that moved vastly in their favor due to injury or lineup changes. That's where the art of sports betting is required rather than just the science of sports betting. I talk about that frequently in my videos. Check out some others - as well as my forthcoming video when I hit 10k subscribers, which will be How to Make $100k/yr Betting Sports.
@@CaptainJackAndrews cool I will do that. Thanks for the content and the response
Couldn't agree more on the "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". I placed an arb wager and the book eventually cancelled one side of the bet due to an 'error', basically, they made a mistake with the odds they posted and cancelled all bets on that side. Now I'm stuck with Steelers to make the playoffs in 2021 FML.
well your bet hit so it’s okay :)
My problem is I always turned something small to something big and get nervous or start overthinking and lose it
Learn the art of detachment. DETACH yourself from your emotions.
I think the free money bookmakers offer almost always isn't worth it because they most come with minimum bet requirements and a high cost of capital which means you end up taking riskier bets just breakeven. as you said, free money is an excellent LTV as bookmakers know they'll make their money back and if they don't they know they're dealing with a sharp with an edge.
I got got by a promo. It had a roll over x6 think and had to wager a certain amount before I cud withdraw. In the end I contacted them paid about 50 to take the roll over out and withdrew what I needed.
25:30 why not just leave all your bankroll on the site?? And reinvest why open a whole new bank account?
Great content as always, sir. I'm relatively new to sports betting, as I just turned 21 this year and my state (Illinois) has just got on the sports betting wagon. Nevertheless, I have been fortunate enough to stumble on some success, particularly with Boxing betting. I wish you continued success both in wagering and on TH-cam, and I look forward to following all of your future content!
Best of luck going forward, Josh. Use those plentiful bonuses in Illinois right now to pad your bankroll.
If you don't know what you're doing you're not qualified to judge the content.
@@raygordonteacheschess5501 Point 1: I don't have to be an expert on sports betting to note that the video was informative. Point 2: I bet I've won more betting wagering on sports than you have.
This is awesome, Jack. I’m in Pennsylvania, how often do all of the major sports books have odds boost that actually provide a large enough edge to bet?
Frequently, but they're not all created equal. I'll be making a video about how to determine how good an odds boost is. Typically, the closer the starting price is to even money, the more valuable the boost. The gain from going from +100 to +125 is better than going from +500 to +550.
@@CaptainJackAndrews awesome. And as far as the starting price, are you just using the price that the book in question is stating the regular price usually is? Or checking out the entire market if available at other books?
@@MiddayMantra Right, you can't always trust their price to be the fair market price. For instance, a couple weeks ago during a MNF Halftime, FoxBet ran a promo for a certain player to score a TD in the 3Q. The boosted odds went from +250 up to +350. However, when I checked FanDuel, I noticed odds for that same player to score a TD in the 3Q were +450 sans boost.
@@CaptainJackAndrews awesome, thank you and love the channel.
only change your kelly every 1000 bets, on the arbitrage beting I had a 10% arb bet one day bet 800 on one side and 1k on the other and the 800 side voided my bet before the game even started and gave me my 800 back. I was really lucky that the one left hit or I would have lost 1k
A lot of off shore sports book will match but they wont give you your initial deposit back.You can collect the winning not the initial deposit.
Pure gold. Very good advice.
Glad you think so!
What about the rollover on the promos. Thats why i never use them. They always have like 10× rollover so you have to wager 10× the amount you get in your promo before you can make a withdraw.
While that's the case in many offshore sportsbooks, most US sportsbooks have a very reasonable rollover requirement. Many as low as 1x.
Hey Jack , loving your channel ...so far I've only been betting the NFL the last 2 years . I had 52% over 40 games the first season, 58% the second season with 40+ games the second season also....in the video are you saying this isn't sustainable, I do know a lot about the teams, their coaching styles,weather and such....but am I possibly just getting lucky....just going by your thoughts in this video........Also it's the only sport I'm competent in , as in I don't bet in other sports yet...considering hockey/baseball but just been watching line movement so far....any thoughts about a second and 3rd sport to add to fill the other months of the year that are beatable?
Thanks for the kind words. One point I like to stress is that you don't need to know a sport to beat a sports market. You just need to know how the market acts. My advice for another sport to add is to find a sport that doesn't attract all the attention, the market will likely be far less efficient.
Hello. I couldn't understand what do you consider a "decent bankroll". Can you help with that, please?
Prop's prop's props till you prop your self up !
that's the only way with sports
Book in my opinion , at least your not being influenced buy the book .
Very informative, great content!!
Do you actually believe that Sportsbook are tracking specific user’s habits? Especially when they’re betting under $100/bet. I highly doubt they’re stalking individual users when they have literally millions of users to sort through, just seems like it wouldn’t be worth it.
I do, actually. They are constantly looking for people who bet with non-recreational tendencies no matter if they win or lose or how much they bet. It's a ridiculous snipe hunt for them, but they do it. Recently gave an example on my Twitter feed about a sportsbook that refused to take my action after just 24 bets, each under $500. I realize that's more than the
Absolutely, I was kicked off 90% of sites due to “ don’t except sharp money” I was betting a lot but I was cancelled at books I was losing too as well! I had to call Mgr just to make $100 bet
Hi Just like and subscribed your channel. Please do keep the great work going. thank you for your wise recommendations ; however, Someone living outside the States i.e. Istanbul/TURKEY, do you have any advice as to which international supports book or one in the states that would take international customers? Also would you share your notes/screenshots of your real betting of any day on NBA games? That I think would really reinforce the theories your are so well teaching here. Regards
None of the US regulated books will be able to take customers from outside the US. Turkey is a bit of a gray market as it's only legal through the state-run operator. There are a lot of unregulated and somewhat illegal ways to bet sports in Turkey but it's not a market that makes it easy on the aspiring sports bettor.
As for my betting, I prefer to keep my action private. Several reasons for this. First, a small sample size proves nothing. I could show you a winning day or a losing day but it wouldn't prove anything. Second, I'd rather not tip my hand on what inefficiencies in the market I am exploiting. That would only aid the market in being more efficient.
And how do you pick all these winners in a row?
Love the videos. The only thing I don't understand here is how do you find your edge % for a bet to be able to do the Kelly calculation?
You mean how do you pick winners? Most don't. Money management is crap it's "how to turn a negative ROI into a positive ROI" try that in a game of chance sometime.
You make all these good points, but the best way to learn is through experience. My suggestion is to make a video where you start with $1,000 in your betting account. Show your bets, the amount and the out come for an entire NFL season. I can listen to advice from GOD, but it doesn't sink in. I need to see it. Would you do that ? I appreciate your current advice but I need to actually see the process to help me.
Hi Cap Jack thanks for the information what offshore book do you recommend Thanks 👍
It's tough for me to recommend any specific offshore book. I no longer use any post-up offshore books. I recommend googling around to see what the buzz is on any book you are thinking of depositing with.
Thanks again I am from Florida it will be a long time before we get sports betting
Captain Jack Andrews thanks
Heritage sports. Pays me Everytime.
Whats your take on daily plays of one game, and go for 25-to-1000-challenge or 50-to 1000 challenge.
I just found your channel. I have been betting mainly college football the last 20 years. I never bet big so I never lost big but eventually the book would get me because I would lose more than I would win. Your information is very useful and thanks for sharing the knowledge.
Welcome aboard!
Thanks. Good stuff. Do you ever dabel into the Asian market (basketball/baseball) ? I'm just scared how regulated they monitoring foxing? But I guess that can go on anywhere. Damned if u do, damned if you don't. Lol
Thanks so much for the great pandemic content!
I'm a part-time advantage player, but I have an underlying health condition that's going to keep me out of casinos until there's a vaccine. I've got zero prior sport betting experience.
I've been using the pandemic time studying "The Logic Of Sports Betting", watching your videos, and building some models. I feel like I'm ready to start getting my feet wet - and I've hit a snag. My state has no prospect of legalizing sports betting - and I'm not close enough to the border to make frequent trips. I've looked at signing up for some offshore books, but I seem to get the "We don't accept bets from your jurisdiction" message a lot.
Would you consider making a "How To" video for people in my situation? Is there a way to get some bets down from home, or has the study time been wasted?
Thanks Doug. You're in a tough spot. I don't speak much to offshore books because it's really tough to speak in absolute terms with them It's a very nuanced question when it comes to finding where to bet. You have two major options when it comes to wagering "offshore":
1) Post up accounts where you deposit
2) PayPerHead accounts where you play on credit and have a local agent or bookie that you settle up with.
In scenario #1, you want to stick with the major sportsbooks. You'll have the lowest chance of complications with them. You'll also need to get familiar with Bitcoin. Be careful with promos offshore, they often have arduous terms and catches.
In scenario #2, you need to find a local guy. Tough to start from nothing, even tougher in this day with less social interaction. Once you find one, finding more is not hard. There aren't promos here and advantage play angles will likely result in either being cut off or stiffed so tread carefully.
#1 is probably easier to a new player.
Shout out to Kelly in Vegas lol
I was going to use a 30% re-up Re-up bonus. I was told to wait and see how I do the next day,because of roll over.He told me that they don’t give away money?What is a rollover on my bonus?Why is it not good?
What sportsbook specifically are you talking about Scott?
Thanks for the videos Cpt. Jack. I have 2 questions.
1) Is there a way to find out which legal sportsbooks are backed by the same parent company so that I don't have my bankroll dispersed in two sportsbooks that have identical lines?
2) Would I get booted or penalized from a sportsbook if I take their deposit bonus and use it to bet on both sides of the same game? Ex: with a $500 deposit bonus in site credit, bet $250 on both sides of a -110 game to guarantee $227 is added to my account.
On question 2, betting on both sides of the same game to playthrough bonus money or on any sort of promo is a big no-no and the books T&C typically reserve the right to take that bonus away
Thanks for watching Brian!
1) Good point about identical lines, that definitely inhibits the value of keeping your money distributed. You can google around to find which operators use which software, but you'll often be led to affiliate sites that simply want you to sign up through them. They don't always offer the correct answer either. If you want to post your state here, I'll give you a quick run-down. If you prefer DM, you can contact me @capjack2000 on Twitter.
2) As C Deli pointed out, you don't want to bet both sides with bonus money at the same sportsbook. They don't like that too much.
Captain Jack Andrews I just DM you on Twitter with the exact same issues as a new bettor under the pandemic and I live in Brooklyn NYC I don’t even know where to start to find the books to even use.. love the videos been watching since 6am to learn..
What would a Kelly bet of -110 w a 10% edge be ??
Full Kelly: 10% of your bankroll * 1.1 (for -110 odds) = 11%
So at wat point is it oky to use the money on u make for life. Or do u jus keep building the bankroll.. is there a blueprint to how to be able use ur winnings?
Treating your bankroll like an annuity where you take profit on the winnings but leave a set amount untouched is one option. For me, it was the point at which I was having trouble getting 1% of my bankroll into play anymore. That was the ceiling point where I started to use winnings towards life things or invested it into other ventures.
@@CaptainJackAndrews THANK YOU for responding. If you dont mind i didnt understand what you mean when you say you cudnt get 1% into play anymore.
I’ve turned 20 into 437 in like 4 days or so live betting and bro doing risky bets is helpful. Sick your pot I would say until you grow your first 100
Great content!
thank you.
To you guys have exchanges in America?
Soon. The barrier is the US Wire Act which prevents sports betting from crossing state lines. As such exchanges would suffer from liquidity caps. When the Wire Act falls, exchanges will make a lot more sense.
I have given you a 👍 u deserve it
TK
What exactly is a stale line? Is it a line that doesn't follow movement at other outlets or is there some other definition?
Correct. It's a price that used to be in-line with the market, but the market moved and now it's stale.
It’s terrible online betting isn’t legal in NY yet ? Is there any way around that outside the dark web?
Geolocation software is very strong, there's no way around it if you aren't in the state.
Thanks for the video 🤘 sub
Thanks for the sub!
Pre-comment for the algo.
GREAT 👍🏼
Whats the point if you can't take money out and pay your bills. Stupid system
Does it cost to subscribe
To subscribe to this channel? No sir. It's just a way for TH-cam to show you when I have new content available for viewing. It encourages me to keep making content knowing there are people actively waiting for my next video.
Bro sign up promotions are the worst why you telling people about it. Most of them have a rollover of insane amounts. Do you think these sports books are idiots or something and they're just giving you free money.
I think you’re confusing offshore promos with the regulated US books - most of whom have only a 1x rollover requirement. And yes, they are essentially giving away free money.
Honestly I’m more comfortable with some one pointing a 40 cal in my face and say give me your money than the way sport books Rob me daily. Everything is a suckers bet.
If your willing to work together and listen to me then I can help you bro 👍
I'm doing this for two reasons so its upfront and you know I'm not trying g to fuck you.
#1 turning a losing sports bettor into a winner builds trust and loyalty and eventually I'll charge you and if your smart and honest you'll pay me.
#2 its great content for my future sports betting guide and will make for an excellent testamonial when the time comes......Anyways my client *who's now my friend* has worked with me for over a year and THOSE are the people I want to build with 👍
Now here's the bad side......
I dont help sports betting degenerates who don't want to LISTEN or LEARN, my goal is to work with honest people who can pay and I will do everything I can to kickass for them and teach them......so thats what I offer 🔥🦂💯
I have a replenishable bankroll bc I donate plasma twice a week 😂
Me too lmao
Build bankroll from scratch
Please talk about soccer
Sorry, I just don't have the expertise to talk much regarding soccer.
I hit bucks -3.5 and warriors-6 last night. Free money!!
Ways to build a bankroll sports betting…. Don’t sports bet. I’d say 1% of sports bettors are lifetime winners.
Rubbish not helpful at all