9th to 12th for Newcastle is wild. The last time Newcastle didn't have European football, they made the Champions League. I think they will surprise a lot of people this year, especially considering how many of their best players they were missing last season. They still managed to finish 7th, which is pretty nuts tbh.
I would definitely have Newcastle ahead of Brighton, but that still puts them at 8th. I find it hard to put them above anyone else besides that based on their squad.
‘Let’s do the newly promoted teams first, Southampton’ (so Leicester or Ipswich next?) ‘Let’s do alphabetical order, Arsenal’ (so Bournemouth?) Everton next😂😂
Big fan of the content, James. But as a Newcastle fan, I think you've absolutely shafted us here! Granted, RW is a mess, but if we bring in Guehi as predicted, and keep Trippier (was in training yesterday) our defence has two solid players in each position: Hall and Kelly at LB Botman and Burn at LCB Schar and Guehi at RCB Trippier and Livramento at RB That's not even factoring in Lascelles, Krafth and Targett, who have had injury issues but on their day are solid squad members. Midfield is also stacked with Willock, Longstaff and Miley bolstering Joelinton, Bruno G and Tonali Gordon and Barnes on the LW is solid, and Isak and Wilson are fantastic strikers, shame Wilson is made of glass. You also glossed over the fact that Isak and Bruno G were worth more than any player in any other squad bar Man City or Arsenal's. On paper, I think we have a great chance at 4th spot; managed it 2 years ago with much less depth and we're the only team in 'The Big 8' without Europe so can solely aim at the league with one match a week. Sometimes we can swept away by spreadsheets and stats.
He put WH and Brighton both above Newcaste... Even transfer market stats (which are terrible) place Newcastle higher than these clubs. Players like Fraser, Hayden, Kuol, Joe White, Ashby, Target, Mark Gillespie, Dubravka... they aren't going to feature at all and skew the squad value massively. Completely overlooking the underestimated value of Miley, and Tonali. RW isn't as much of a mess as y'all make out. Murphy had decent contributions last season and Miggy helps us win games - he's a huge part of us winning back possession when we have Pope sweeping
@@tomatao. aye very good point about the reserve players. I really like Murphy tbf but I do think we need a new starting RW to push on as a European-chasing side
We were 8 points off Villa who were 4th last season (we'd be ahead on goal difference) that was with Willock, Wilson, Botman, tonali, Joelinton, Pope and Barnes missing for most of it, we've added a 3rd striker, if we get the rumoured Guehi and Madueke... Most of our losses were in december when had the same team for 9 games in a row and Dan Burn was being targetted at Left back for pace, coupled with Dubravkas issues. With Hall established next season that will hopefully remove that threat from opposing teams
This one's nearly as funny as last years one , last year your list was 1. City 2. Liverpool 3.arsenal 4. United lol 5. CHELSEA LOOOOL 🤫 6. Villa 7. Spurs The best of the pick was that trent Alexander Arnold will win POTY looooooooooool get down specasavers and get a nice new double glazed set.
Isak/Bruno/Botman/Gordon carry more value than all of Brightons squad put together what a strange decision to put West Ham/Brighton above Newcastle like this
Newcastle are probably ahead of what I expected at this point. The frustration was last season where Ashley era was still looming over the club preventing them from making wholesale changes. But the improvement overall on and off the pitch has been amazing.
Maybe im biased as a Newcastle fan but i feel like our squad is pretty good. Bring in a good CB and a good RW and the squad should be ready for champions league football. Could be wrong ofc but i am optimistic
last season Newcastle United had the worst injury crisis, in terms of days missed, of any premier league club in the last 12 years yet they finished 7th - they'll be higher than that this season, especially if they manage to sign Guehi and another quality winger/forward. Also, where is Gordon on the Market Value graph? If the source website for this is suggesting he's not worth more than £60m they need specialist psychiatric help. I'd say the market values in general seem quite low. Then we move on to NUFC being valued in the same area as Forest, Wolves, and Bournemouth - this just reads like bait, which is disappointing for this channel.
Wolves would defo be classed as under valued. Asset wise. Joao Gomes. Cunha. Neto. RAN.. All would command 45/50m plus. Then you would have most of the rest of first team squad commanding 10-30m. Sa. Semedo. Hwang. Guedes. Podence. Toti. Lemina etc Potential for Lima, Mosquera and Rodrigo Gomes to have very high ceilings after this season. So like said spotlight something to do with it. As the higher valued players get in the top 6 squads. Good video!!
I wouldn't say undervalued when compared to the clubs above them. Definitely room for potential improvement though. Exciting times to be a footy fan in the midlands
Newcastle are gonna have a great season, I'm saying top 4. No europe, Tonali, Lewis/Hall coming good, I think Murphy is looking really sharp and Isak back to full fitness. We have our new injury prevention people in place, a great spirit, Gordon about to be a beast, big Joe getting back to his best. Im gonna make good money on 4-0's and 5-0's this time round.
Forest have had a phenomenal summer window. We sold a couple of backup players for a profit to clear PSR. Got Anderson for £35 with a hopeless GK going the other way for £20m in a dodgy PSR deal for Toon. (we paid less then £10m a year ago). A 6ft 5 no nonsense Serbian CB and 6ft 8 GK to solve the set piece issues. There’s an U18 international German RW/wingback come in for £4m. We just need a half decent No9 as backup to Taiwo and Woodsy and top 10 is a realistic prospect
Maybe appearances in the top 4-5 leagues makes more sense as a metric. For instance, Tonali doesn't have a ton of experience in the Premier League but played in the Serie A for years. His experience is more valuable than an Ipswich Town player that only knows Championship and League One
I wouldn't say that's necessarily true. The Serie A is not as much a 1:1 with the premier League. Both leagues play completely different styles. I would honestly say that the championship is more similar in terms of playing style. But obviously when talking about media attention and pressure, serie a is more equivalent. Certainly an interesting conversation!
Great video James. Probably the biggest issue with using only market value is that there are massive error bars around the results that expense will produce. I'd probably normalise cost by the applicable statistical categories per player during their time in the top 5 leagues as way to weight the cost vs contribution. It's a lot of work but probably the best way to try and generate a good predictive metric.
‘Alot of Newcastle fans will have thought they would be ahead of where they are right now’ Really?? Yes perhaps we’d like to have been able to spend more money, but every other mags fan I know is pretty happy with the past couple years! Also Newcastle placement in this is bonkers
I think the issue with wolves is that previously we sold poorly or helded out too long, I think now with Matt Hobbs in charge of transfers you will see that number rise, but also you got to think the Portuguese players are often for brought in on real low prices and I think the reason why our average is low is some squad players are undervalued and because the squad was so thin so lots of youth or fringe players seeing high use
It's exactly this. Matt Hobbs vs Sellers in recruitment is night and day. For the last few years of Sellers it felt like we overpaid and missed on every player. Since Hobbs has taken over it feels more like 75%+ hits. There are a lot of young players that have come to wolves in the last 1-2 years that are undervalued. For example Joao Gomes value on transfermarkt is €35.00m. There is a very good chance that wolves wouldn't even accept double that (~£60m) in this window. If anyone takes a look at all our new player's since Hobbs became the recruitment director there hasn't been even one Gestifute client. The more we distance from gestifute the better off we will be over the long term. Mendes gave access to really quality players in the beginning of the relationship and towards the end it was one way favors for him. Example, Fabio Silva. Another example, do you remember we let Adama go on a loan to Barcelona with no compensation as his contract was ticking down and then he eventually left on a free. We were the battered woman in an abusive relationship...
As a United fan with our latest signings in se Ligt and Mazraoui who already know the basics of what Ten Hags tactics are about our defence should be more stable
The one thing I keep coming back to as a wolves fan is how reliant we are one 1 off moments of magic from Neto, Hwang and Cunha. We very rarely showed strong build up play or team cohesion last season eventually relying on break away play from those players. Now with Neto leaving for Chelsea I feel GON needs to work together to make something of the team where we are not so reliant on these moments of madness. If you'd asked me this time last season that we'd still be in the PL and fighting for top half of the table and European spots next year if have called you mad, but Gary really impressed me last season getting performances out of the team that we were unable to see under Bruno Lage and Jlop.
Bit of a confusing one James! Little bit too much data and variables. Felt you jumped around a bit determining ‘quality’ based on a whole range of factors value/experience. Would’ve liked a bit more football orientated discussion as opposed to purely monetary or experience.
I actually think West Ham have a VERY good squad coming into this season. Fulkrug/Kudus/Paqueta/Bowen/S'ville/Alvarez/Guido/Emerson/Areola.....those are all great players, they just need a few more defensive reinforcements imo.
It will be intresting to see who strategy works better in the long term villa or Newcastle. Villa are prepared to sell their best players and bring in more players at lower prices. While newcastle seems to be focusing on the starting 11 and keeping hold of the most valuable. In my opinion as a Newcastle fan I think we have a much better 11 but a worse squad and I think we will most likely end up higher while villa will do better in the champions league then we did last season
That’s not really Villa’s strategy. Onana cost more than Luiz was sold for, Maatsen cost as much as both Digne and Moreno combined. It’s more PSR rules which meant sales had to happen before the end of June. I think we can expect both clubs (and anyone else trying to be really ambitious) to have to sell assets each year regardless of performance if they want new players in.
@@antwootz7723 Gordon, isak, Bruno, tonali, joelinton, botman, tino all get into none of your midfield get anywhere near matteson, bailey and Martinez and pal Torres if we don’t buy Guehi get in.
@@edpurdy1808 Check that again. Luiz was 42 mil, or 28 mil plus the two players. Grealish yes but that’s 3 years ago now, Bailey even outperformed him last year. Diaby had an ok first year but wasn’t one of our best players.
Morgan Gibbs White didn't cost anywhere near 50M for Forest... he cost us about 32M a lot of the add-ons were unattainable. He's now comfortably worth 50M... good business. No Bias obvs. COME ON YOU TRICKY TREES!
I love that to get a click by every Newcastle fan u just need the badge in the thumbnail😂 doesn’t matter if you also have the other 19 teams in it too.
Great show but I think you are not being fair to Newcastle. This season: GK hopefully Pope not injured; FB improving Timo Livramento and Lewis Hall, CB hopefully buy Guehi (England), Kelly in on a free and Botman back for November; MF add Sandro Tonali and kept Bruno, Joe Linton; LW add Barnes and kept Gordon; RW agree poor but expecting us to strengthen; FW kept Issac. So I expect the team to be stronger than last year and with improved squad depth. Also kept Eddie Howe. Depending on injuries they could finish 4th to 7th.
I think when you are considering age in terms of why value might be down, you should also consider position For lower half teams having a solid defence is way more important than having an amazing attacker, which is why Leeds/Leicester/Burnley have recently gone down and Everton stayed up CB/GK are always undervalued, but provide their own value, like older players
Bro Newcastle has Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimãres, Lewis Miley, Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, Kieran Trippier, Tino Livramento, Sven Botman, Marc Guéhi, Lewis Hall, Nick Pope
Honestly, how do we think tottenham signing Solanke changes things. Especially considering he was highlighting the lack of quality/depth in the final third
Hmmm, I get the idea but think this could be tweaked to weight first 11 80% and rest of squad 20%. To account for 2 players injured or rotated on average per game over course of season.
Newcastle 9-12th🤣 Isak alone is worth more than The West Ham squad. He'll score 20+ goals this season guaranteed. Add Bruno, Schar, Gordon, Pope, Livramento (Future star) etc etc
@@MindSurf248standard doesn't drop off a cliff. Bit ott lol. Howe was a victim of his success in that squad wasn't ready for CL. But they had the worst injury crisis in prem history and were still only 8 points from top 4.
Disagree with the Everton position as you gotta take into account the points deduction last season. I still think/predict they'd be higher on the table
Love your content James but feels like you have done the same tired thing most content creators and media seem to be doing and saying "Newcastle fans can't be happy, they must be frustrated." This is just plain wrong, most Newcastle fans are extremely happy with the club's trajectory and the job Howe is doing. It feels like we're constantly being told we should be upset when we're actually really happy.... Also, I sort of get your argument, but ranking our squad quality 9th to 12th when we've just come 7th and then 4th the season before that is a little strange.
The premier league isnt really getting squished together in squad value though, its the top 6 widening the gap then the rest of the 14 squished together which is terrible.
united’s value should be higher, realistically the previous board just overloaded wages. additionally last season most players were injured and that’s heavily weighing on peoples views of united players
The Arsenal board need to be applauded. Arteta originally brought in some younger promising players, that didnt really cut it to start with. But Arteta trusted himself and the board trusted and backed Arteta and now its showing how he has turned them into a force. And no, im not an Arsenal fan. #UTV
As a Newcastle fan, I’ve seen this happen every season, and it always feels like you guys miss the mark. But hey, we're ready to prove you wrong once again! 😉
@@dexter6447 given the injuries (statistically the highest in the league) I think 7th was pretty good beat all top6 teams and Villa at least once bar Liverpool.
I remember this time last year and we had plenty of people thinking the CL would have us finishing in bottom half. Plenty said 6th or 7th too, they were spot on but, yeah, id say we proved a lot of peoole wrong.@dexter6447
Spurs, Villa (if you actually include Buendia in stats), and Utd all had massive injury crisis too, and Vila played quite a few more games. I' bot gonna say you weren't hammered, and probably worse than anyone, but undeniably part of Newcastles issues were your lack of depth in your squad.
Bizarre to have United battling to stay between 5th and 8th. They will have 10 or 11 first team players available to them this season that they didn't have available to them last season between new signings and players returning from injury. Can't see them finishing outside top 4 to be honest .
That median / mean comment seemed off regarding Bournemouth? If your team is 6/6/5/2/1 it means the median is higher. 6/6/5/4/4 is the same at value 5, but the team is obviously better on paper. 8/8/5/3/3/ is a way better team than the first and the mean is higher than the median. Just, can you really tell if it is a good thing or "going in the right direction" when only one team has a higher median? It seems other teams have more positive outliers, which usually should be the best (on paper at least).
This is live so i can understand that its not well thought out. But alot of teams when u analyse, for example Newcastle, you compared it to Aston Villa which you deem is better then Newcastle, but on that tier there was also Brighton and West Ham which you never compare between. The whole tier list ends up a mess. But the analysis was good.
@@rbstickymicky66 West ham finished 9th and 14th last two seasons not that similar to Newcastle and villa who finished 4th and 7th in the last two seasons
Is this valuation of the 23 player squads? Also we could hypothesize that older players will have more games under their belts. So it would be interesting to see the median value as well for the age and appearances. No doubt prem experience or in general the ilder players add experience but are they prone to more injuries? Availability? Does thaz affect the value? Being a Liverpool fan Thiago would be an example of this too. I know he didnt have a lot prem appearances but he had a lot of games under his belt prior and his market value was pretty much consistent but he wasnt available for us
It was interesting to see Ross Barkley perform at Luton with his prem experience probably showing the impact that the experience and games under the belt had. His Valuation grew with the season and so did the other players. That shows that maybe just using prem appearances might also be a little biased. Likes of Doughty and the forwards for Luton were quite impactful and had loads of game experience too
So Wharton is already worth £80m+. How does this factor to Palace's over all squad value? And Guehi is worth £65m+? And Brighton are not are our neighbours.
I love how screwed Chelsea are based on their squad currently, it's even funnier the fact that they keep on buying players to the point of having 6 goalkeepers and 6 strikers in their first team 😂
Seamus, Gana, and Ashley Young heavily skew the mean appareances and age older for Everton. Undoubtedly, still an older squad, but not as much as at first glance. Talking about outliers. Seamus has 450ish games played and ashley young is 39. Those are extreme outliers
Crystal Palace have european competition level players in Guehi - Andersen, Doucoure (tho he has injury problems), Eze and Olise (now gone), apart from really competitive players under EPL standards in Mateta and Mitchell. Brighton do have a whole lot of young players with room to grow, but there's not enough talent. They have no players who are even near european competition level, and although they could still function after Trossard's, MacAllister's and Caicedo's departures, the ceiling is definetely lower. They also let Gross go, who has experience and was probably their best player. Newcastle have a higher competitive floor than Brighton as they have more experienced players, and a higher ceiling with players like Gordon, Isak, Bruno, Tonali, Botman, Trippier... I can't understand how they go under West Ham and Brighton. Top 11 is the following: City Arsenal Liverpool Chelsea United Tottenham Aston Villa Newcastle West Ham Brighton Crystal Palace
Does market value really dictate how good your squad is? It will obviously favour the younger squads. As a Newcastle fan, if we get Guehi and sign a right-winger, our squad is incredibly balanced. Don't count out young players like Trevan Sanusi, Alex Murphy, and Alfie Harrison from featuring this season (should they not be loaned out).
If there was an effective ratio of squad quality to squad value you could measure how far along a squads project the club is. Btw guehi ain’t gonna stop you conceding 75 goals this season
Putting Brentford there is a joke imo they had Toney out for pretty much the whole season last year they had 7-8 injuries for months upon a time . They’ve bought a few new players with quality including cavahlo. Newcastle prediction I can’t see , wolves should be lower 💯 . You’ve had a mare
Until wealthy owners are allow to spend the SAME as those who already have (pre-FFP) deep squads the top of the prem CANNOT be truly competitive. ALL clubs should be able to build to an equal squad value and not fear point deductions for trying to be competitive.
You have had an Absolute Mare there mate Putting Nufc where you did and your supposed to know about football you do realise we played most of last Season with our b-c team the Disrespect is disgusting lad but go on write The Toon of at Your Peril if you will even though we have one of the Best Midfields in the League Bruno G J7 and Tonali the the Best Left Winger in the Prem AG10 2nd Best striker isac then the best Defence of 22/23 in Botman when he's back which is October Schar who took England to the Wire only to be beat by Penalties then Tino and Lewis Hall with Pope the best Sweeper Keeper in League Mate the Disrespect is unreal but we will see
Great idea for a video but transfermarkt’s values are absolute shit so it kind of skews things. For example Antony’s market value is 28m & Kendry Paez’s is 12m. Who in their right mind thinks that’s how much they’d be go for if they were both transfer listed today?
All of this is great....but also 100% flawed. Every variable that you slightly change or add or remove will sway the outcome of this "data" heavily. Also...only Prem appearances taking into account. So that says that the assumption is that no other top 5 league experience counts and/or translates to the prem and can be of value. Could probably do an entire essay about why this analysis is flawed, but you kinda get what i am saying. Still great and interesting video. Data is just never ending and putting perimeters on it kinda suggests that it is even though those perimeters could be moving in multiple different directions endlessly and thus change the outcome per club and as a whole.
Chelsea’s squad is a lot lot better than Spurs’. I understand the point of having a lot of players but there is absolutely no way that spurs team 23 man vs 23 man is even remotely close tbh
9th to 12th for Newcastle is wild. The last time Newcastle didn't have European football, they made the Champions League. I think they will surprise a lot of people this year, especially considering how many of their best players they were missing last season. They still managed to finish 7th, which is pretty nuts tbh.
Newcastle fans aye
We need to let the league underestimate us. Then we go from 19th-4th again.
I would definitely have Newcastle ahead of Brighton, but that still puts them at 8th. I find it hard to put them above anyone else besides that based on their squad.
They had the most injured squad in the league bar fucking liverpool
they miss Tonali so bad
Jim “lets do this in alphabetical order”. 5 mins later… “right, lets do Nottingham Forest”
Wasn't there a Leicester, Ipswich, Wolves sequence?😅
‘Let’s do the newly promoted teams first, Southampton’ (so Leicester or Ipswich next?)
‘Let’s do alphabetical order, Arsenal’ (so Bournemouth?)
Everton next😂😂
Youve had a proper rory Jennings here
Big fan of the content, James. But as a Newcastle fan, I think you've absolutely shafted us here! Granted, RW is a mess, but if we bring in Guehi as predicted, and keep Trippier (was in training yesterday) our defence has two solid players in each position:
Hall and Kelly at LB
Botman and Burn at LCB
Schar and Guehi at RCB
Trippier and Livramento at RB
That's not even factoring in Lascelles, Krafth and Targett, who have had injury issues but on their day are solid squad members.
Midfield is also stacked with Willock, Longstaff and Miley bolstering Joelinton, Bruno G and Tonali
Gordon and Barnes on the LW is solid, and Isak and Wilson are fantastic strikers, shame Wilson is made of glass.
You also glossed over the fact that Isak and Bruno G were worth more than any player in any other squad bar Man City or Arsenal's.
On paper, I think we have a great chance at 4th spot; managed it 2 years ago with much less depth and we're the only team in 'The Big 8' without Europe so can solely aim at the league with one match a week.
Sometimes we can swept away by spreadsheets and stats.
He put WH and Brighton both above Newcaste... Even transfer market stats (which are terrible) place Newcastle higher than these clubs. Players like Fraser, Hayden, Kuol, Joe White, Ashby, Target, Mark Gillespie, Dubravka... they aren't going to feature at all and skew the squad value massively.
Completely overlooking the underestimated value of Miley, and Tonali.
RW isn't as much of a mess as y'all make out. Murphy had decent contributions last season and Miggy helps us win games - he's a huge part of us winning back possession when we have Pope sweeping
@@tomatao. aye very good point about the reserve players. I really like Murphy tbf but I do think we need a new starting RW to push on as a European-chasing side
ur midfield is nice man
Rather be slept on really rate our chances at getting top 5
Ur teams shit man idk why u think its not
You had Newcastle in the same bracket as Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth until the last 10secs. You have had a nightmare.
We were 8 points off Villa who were 4th last season (we'd be ahead on goal difference) that was with Willock, Wilson, Botman, tonali, Joelinton, Pope and Barnes missing for most of it, we've added a 3rd striker, if we get the rumoured Guehi and Madueke...
Most of our losses were in december when had the same team for 9 games in a row and Dan Burn was being targetted at Left back for pace, coupled with Dubravkas issues. With Hall established next season that will hopefully remove that threat from opposing teams
THANKS FOR WATCHING! X
You've had a stinker here Jimbo 🐌
This one's nearly as funny as last years one , last year your list was
1. City
2. Liverpool
3.arsenal
4. United lol
5. CHELSEA LOOOOL 🤫
6. Villa
7. Spurs
The best of the pick was that trent Alexander Arnold will win POTY looooooooooool
get down specasavers and get a nice new double glazed set.
Had a stinker mate
Isak/Bruno/Botman/Gordon carry more value than all of Brightons squad put together
what a strange decision to put West Ham/Brighton above Newcastle like this
Gordon is off to Liverpool, be amazed if he doesn’t.
oooh arrh. You'll be amazed?
@@deanmcdougall5331 Liverpool are about to pay a 60m release clause for Zubimendi. They can't afford Gordon.
@@Arqueto176they can afford Gordon, they might be too stingy though
@@inahole2678 hey hand over 80-100m. nufc spend that and get stronger. dont and we have the best lw in the league. win win. hope gordon stays
Newcastle are probably ahead of what I expected at this point.
The frustration was last season where Ashley era was still looming over the club preventing them from making wholesale changes.
But the improvement overall on and off the pitch has been amazing.
There are levels to this game and JLA (and team) are consistently at the top. What a gem of an idea, and an even better execution. Great video!
Even without signing another new player this window, if health in the squad holds up reasonably, Newcastle is 5th at the lowest
Maybe im biased as a Newcastle fan but i feel like our squad is pretty good. Bring in a good CB and a good RW and the squad should be ready for champions league football. Could be wrong ofc but i am optimistic
NUFC that low is a wild take
last season Newcastle United had the worst injury crisis, in terms of days missed, of any premier league club in the last 12 years yet they finished 7th - they'll be higher than that this season, especially if they manage to sign Guehi and another quality winger/forward. Also, where is Gordon on the Market Value graph? If the source website for this is suggesting he's not worth more than £60m they need specialist psychiatric help. I'd say the market values in general seem quite low. Then we move on to NUFC being valued in the same area as Forest, Wolves, and Bournemouth - this just reads like bait, which is disappointing for this channel.
Wolves would defo be classed as under valued.
Asset wise. Joao Gomes. Cunha. Neto. RAN.. All would command 45/50m plus.
Then you would have most of the rest of first team squad commanding 10-30m. Sa. Semedo. Hwang. Guedes. Podence. Toti. Lemina etc
Potential for Lima, Mosquera and Rodrigo Gomes to have very high ceilings after this season.
So like said spotlight something to do with it. As the higher valued players get in the top 6 squads. Good video!!
I wouldn't say undervalued when compared to the clubs above them. Definitely room for potential improvement though. Exciting times to be a footy fan in the midlands
No neto anymore
Liverpool 36:43
Cheers now I know which part to skip
Can you give us the end time of the segment on Liverpool as well please?
So you sift thru replied searching for a timestamp to avoid Liverpool like a fucking loser? @@cargoshipgaming
@@cargoshipgamingLMAOOO
We haven’t had jonjo shelvey for a season , he is in turkey
On loan. He’s back at Forest now.
@@deanmcdougall5331No he is not. He hasn't been at the club's books since he moved to Turkey.
@@georgiosapostolides1944According to Transfermarket, Soccerway and the premier league he’s still a Forest player.
@@deanmcdougall5331 They are wrong. They also have Alex Mighten listed at the club and he left on a free at the beginning of the transfer window.
@@deanmcdougall5331 Well according to the club he is not.
Newcastle are gonna have a great season, I'm saying top 4.
No europe, Tonali, Lewis/Hall coming good, I think Murphy is looking really sharp and Isak back to full fitness.
We have our new injury prevention people in place, a great spirit, Gordon about to be a beast, big Joe getting back to his best.
Im gonna make good money on 4-0's and 5-0's this time round.
Forest have had a phenomenal summer window. We sold a couple of backup players for a profit to clear PSR. Got Anderson for £35 with a hopeless GK going the other way for £20m in a dodgy PSR deal for Toon. (we paid less then £10m a year ago). A 6ft 5 no nonsense Serbian CB and 6ft 8 GK to solve the set piece issues. There’s an U18 international German RW/wingback come in for £4m. We just need a half decent No9 as backup to Taiwo and Woodsy and top 10 is a realistic prospect
Da Silva Moreira was only £1.5m mad bit of business 👊🏼
Maybe appearances in the top 4-5 leagues makes more sense as a metric. For instance, Tonali doesn't have a ton of experience in the Premier League but played in the Serie A for years. His experience is more valuable than an Ipswich Town player that only knows Championship and League One
I wouldn't say that's necessarily true. The Serie A is not as much a 1:1 with the premier League. Both leagues play completely different styles. I would honestly say that the championship is more similar in terms of playing style. But obviously when talking about media attention and pressure, serie a is more equivalent. Certainly an interesting conversation!
Seeing those who don’t support Arsenal but still appreciate them is refreshing. Cheers James. COYG!
Really poor placing on Newcastle
Not really
@@EloisaWheatley we'll see
@@EloisaWheatleyyes really
@@EloisaWheatley read a book
Newcastle finished 7th last season with practically their B team.@@EloisaWheatley
Shocking news - Detailed analysis shows Arsenal, Man City and Lliverpool have the strongest squads and the newly promoted teams don’t. Nice one.
Great video James. Probably the biggest issue with using only market value is that there are massive error bars around the results that expense will produce. I'd probably normalise cost by the applicable statistical categories per player during their time in the top 5 leagues as way to weight the cost vs contribution. It's a lot of work but probably the best way to try and generate a good predictive metric.
Data analysis has never been so engaging
This the detail I’m looking for in my football analysis
Impressive amount of research and top shelf use of excel. Well done!
Nice to hear us Saints back in these videos and James saying about us being disrespected even if it’s going to be a tough old season 🤣🔴⚪️
Thank you for digging a bit deeper with Forest - pretty much the only non-Forest TH-camr who has a clue 😂
‘Alot of Newcastle fans will have thought they would be ahead of where they are right now’
Really?? Yes perhaps we’d like to have been able to spend more money, but every other mags fan I know is pretty happy with the past couple years!
Also Newcastle placement in this is bonkers
I think the issue with wolves is that previously we sold poorly or helded out too long, I think now with Matt Hobbs in charge of transfers you will see that number rise, but also you got to think the Portuguese players are often for brought in on real low prices and I think the reason why our average is low is some squad players are undervalued and because the squad was so thin so lots of youth or fringe players seeing high use
It's exactly this. Matt Hobbs vs Sellers in recruitment is night and day. For the last few years of Sellers it felt like we overpaid and missed on every player. Since Hobbs has taken over it feels more like 75%+ hits. There are a lot of young players that have come to wolves in the last 1-2 years that are undervalued. For example Joao Gomes value on transfermarkt is €35.00m. There is a very good chance that wolves wouldn't even accept double that (~£60m) in this window. If anyone takes a look at all our new player's since Hobbs became the recruitment director there hasn't been even one Gestifute client. The more we distance from gestifute the better off we will be over the long term. Mendes gave access to really quality players in the beginning of the relationship and towards the end it was one way favors for him. Example, Fabio Silva. Another example, do you remember we let Adama go on a loan to Barcelona with no compensation as his contract was ticking down and then he eventually left on a free. We were the battered woman in an abusive relationship...
Excellent video as always, I think borderline 4th/5th for Villa is about how I feel as a fan. Then add Emery to that, I'm very excited going forward.
Really enjoyed this James. Real quality in this video ❤
Yeah do a video on west hams new signings James and how they'll fit in
Being edited as we speak
As a United fan with our latest signings in se Ligt and Mazraoui who already know the basics of what Ten Hags tactics are about our defence should be more stable
The one thing I keep coming back to as a wolves fan is how reliant we are one 1 off moments of magic from Neto, Hwang and Cunha. We very rarely showed strong build up play or team cohesion last season eventually relying on break away play from those players.
Now with Neto leaving for Chelsea I feel GON needs to work together to make something of the team where we are not so reliant on these moments of madness.
If you'd asked me this time last season that we'd still be in the PL and fighting for top half of the table and European spots next year if have called you mad, but Gary really impressed me last season getting performances out of the team that we were unable to see under Bruno Lage and Jlop.
Bit of a confusing one James! Little bit too much data and variables. Felt you jumped around a bit determining ‘quality’ based on a whole range of factors value/experience. Would’ve liked a bit more football orientated discussion as opposed to purely monetary or experience.
I actually think West Ham have a VERY good squad coming into this season. Fulkrug/Kudus/Paqueta/Bowen/S'ville/Alvarez/Guido/Emerson/Areola.....those are all great players, they just need a few more defensive reinforcements imo.
@@EloisaWheatley I wouldn’t say great some of them we haven’t seen yet in the prem. kudus, paquesta, Bowen are the only very good players
Jesus Christ man, people bawling their eyes out in this comment section 😂😭😭😂😂
It will be intresting to see who strategy works better in the long term villa or Newcastle. Villa are prepared to sell their best players and bring in more players at lower prices. While newcastle seems to be focusing on the starting 11 and keeping hold of the most valuable. In my opinion as a Newcastle fan I think we have a much better 11 but a worse squad and I think we will most likely end up higher while villa will do better in the champions league then we did last season
That’s not really Villa’s strategy. Onana cost more than Luiz was sold for, Maatsen cost as much as both Digne and Moreno combined. It’s more PSR rules which meant sales had to happen before the end of June. I think we can expect both clubs (and anyone else trying to be really ambitious) to have to sell assets each year regardless of performance if they want new players in.
Looool your 11 is nowhere near as strong as villas bro. Take Gordon and Isak out and you're all but a championship side 🤣
@@antwootz7723 Gordon, isak, Bruno, tonali, joelinton, botman, tino all get into none of your midfield get anywhere near matteson, bailey and Martinez and pal Torres if we don’t buy Guehi get in.
@@cav6717 Douglas Luiz was sold for 65 mil just included 2 players. Onana was 50. But also grealish and diaby. Sold some of your best.
@@edpurdy1808 Check that again. Luiz was 42 mil, or 28 mil plus the two players. Grealish yes but that’s 3 years ago now, Bailey even outperformed him last year. Diaby had an ok first year but wasn’t one of our best players.
Morgan Gibbs White didn't cost anywhere near 50M for Forest... he cost us about 32M a lot of the add-ons were unattainable. He's now comfortably worth 50M... good business. No Bias obvs. COME ON YOU TRICKY TREES!
I feel like this video was an excuse for JLA to flex his excel skills
I love that to get a click by every Newcastle fan u just need the badge in the thumbnail😂 doesn’t matter if you also have the other 19 teams in it too.
Great show but I think you are not being fair to Newcastle. This season: GK hopefully Pope not injured; FB improving Timo Livramento and Lewis Hall, CB hopefully buy Guehi (England), Kelly in on a free and Botman back for November; MF add Sandro Tonali and kept Bruno, Joe Linton; LW add Barnes and kept Gordon; RW agree poor but expecting us to strengthen; FW kept Issac. So I expect the team to be stronger than last year and with improved squad depth. Also kept Eddie Howe. Depending on injuries they could finish 4th to 7th.
I think when you are considering age in terms of why value might be down, you should also consider position
For lower half teams having a solid defence is way more important than having an amazing attacker, which is why Leeds/Leicester/Burnley have recently gone down and Everton stayed up
CB/GK are always undervalued, but provide their own value, like older players
Bro Newcastle has Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimãres, Lewis Miley, Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, Kieran Trippier, Tino Livramento, Sven Botman, Marc Guéhi, Lewis Hall, Nick Pope
Honestly, how do we think tottenham signing Solanke changes things. Especially considering he was highlighting the lack of quality/depth in the final third
Hmmm, I get the idea but think this could be tweaked to weight first 11 80% and rest of squad 20%. To account for 2 players injured or rotated on average per game over course of season.
That chart indicated a sideways market with bullish sentiment. Place a trade but remember to set your stop losses.
Nottingham Forest in the same tier as Wolverhampton, Bournemouth and Newcastle looks like a polar bear in Arlington, Texas
Southampton have some really good youth prospects coming through as well
Shocked by our postion in this. I think other then a right winger have a quality squad with almost a decent back up in all areas
hes clutching at straws here...
@williamwoods2744 Comoared to Palace or Fulham yer, but Spurs and Villa definitlwy have more depth
@MindSurf248 wilson,barnes, longstaff, willick, miley, burn, lascelles, Murphy and now trippear is unreal back up for a team that isn't a top3 club
Who cares, irrelevant club… and of all the players named there is no top tier player… they are all mid in a mid league
Im surprise Chelsea arent getting their own video w/ a squad that overinflated 😂
Newcastle 9-12th🤣 Isak alone is worth more than The West Ham squad. He'll score 20+ goals this season guaranteed. Add Bruno, Schar, Gordon, Pope, Livramento (Future star) etc etc
That's Newcastles problem, you have a solid first 11, and then your standard drops off a cliff.
@@MindSurf248exactly they have 0 depth in that squad bit them in the ass last season it’ll do the same this season😂😂
@@MindSurf248standard doesn't drop off a cliff. Bit ott lol. Howe was a victim of his success in that squad wasn't ready for CL. But they had the worst injury crisis in prem history and were still only 8 points from top 4.
Disagree with the Everton position as you gotta take into account the points deduction last season. I still think/predict they'd be higher on the table
Love your content James but feels like you have done the same tired thing most content creators and media seem to be doing and saying "Newcastle fans can't be happy, they must be frustrated." This is just plain wrong, most Newcastle fans are extremely happy with the club's trajectory and the job Howe is doing. It feels like we're constantly being told we should be upset when we're actually really happy....
Also, I sort of get your argument, but ranking our squad quality 9th to 12th when we've just come 7th and then 4th the season before that is a little strange.
The premier league isnt really getting squished together in squad value though, its the top 6 widening the gap then the rest of the 14 squished together which is terrible.
united’s value should be higher, realistically the previous board just overloaded wages. additionally last season most players were injured and that’s heavily weighing on peoples views of united players
Confused about Man Utd ... what is there to be confused about as they are miles behind City, Arsenal & Liverpool whilst they will never catch them up
The Arsenal board need to be applauded. Arteta originally brought in some younger promising players, that didnt really cut it to start with. But Arteta trusted himself and the board trusted and backed Arteta and now its showing how he has turned them into a force.
And no, im not an Arsenal fan. #UTV
A graph for market value minus transfer fees would be interesting for Chelsea fans....?
As a Newcastle fan, I’ve seen this happen every season, and it always feels like you guys miss the mark. But hey, we're ready to prove you wrong once again! 😉
Didn’t really prove anyone wrong last season did you
@@dexter6447 given the injuries (statistically the highest in the league) I think 7th was pretty good beat all top6 teams and Villa at least once bar Liverpool.
I remember this time last year and we had plenty of people thinking the CL would have us finishing in bottom half. Plenty said 6th or 7th too, they were spot on but, yeah, id say we proved a lot of peoole wrong.@dexter6447
@@edpurdy1808Villa were 4th mate
Spurs, Villa (if you actually include Buendia in stats), and Utd all had massive injury crisis too, and Vila played quite a few more games. I' bot gonna say you weren't hammered, and probably worse than anyone, but undeniably part of Newcastles issues were your lack of depth in your squad.
James I had a lot of respect for you until you put Newcastle that low😂
Kinda surprised you put us (Southampton) that high, we're a bit light in attack and in goal at the moment. Definitely need some more bodies in
Bizarre to have United battling to stay between 5th and 8th. They will have 10 or 11 first team players available to them this season that they didn't have available to them last season between new signings and players returning from injury. Can't see them finishing outside top 4 to be honest .
Chelsea squad is so big, the sheet wouldn't load on your screen 😂
That median / mean comment seemed off regarding Bournemouth?
If your team is 6/6/5/2/1 it means the median is higher.
6/6/5/4/4 is the same at value 5, but the team is obviously better on paper.
8/8/5/3/3/ is a way better team than the first and the mean is higher than the median.
Just, can you really tell if it is a good thing or "going in the right direction" when only one team has a higher median? It seems other teams have more positive outliers, which usually should be the best (on paper at least).
This is live so i can understand that its not well thought out. But alot of teams when u analyse, for example Newcastle, you compared it to Aston Villa which you deem is better then Newcastle, but on that tier there was also Brighton and West Ham which you never compare between. The whole tier list ends up a mess. But the analysis was good.
Because they all finish in and around the same area every year there abouts silly
@@rbstickymicky66 West ham finished 9th and 14th last two seasons not that similar to Newcastle and villa who finished 4th and 7th in the last two seasons
need to update the Villa logo!
For the last couple of years, people disregard us at Fulham and we have done well. Let’s wait and see
Old Villa badge alert
51:20 before the bit that everyone wants to see (Chelsea) even starts. You’re welcome.
Is this valuation of the 23 player squads?
Also we could hypothesize that older players will have more games under their belts. So it would be interesting to see the median value as well for the age and appearances.
No doubt prem experience or in general the ilder players add experience but are they prone to more injuries? Availability? Does thaz affect the value? Being a Liverpool fan Thiago would be an example of this too. I know he didnt have a lot prem appearances but he had a lot of games under his belt prior and his market value was pretty much consistent but he wasnt available for us
It was interesting to see Ross Barkley perform at Luton with his prem experience probably showing the impact that the experience and games under the belt had.
His Valuation grew with the season and so did the other players.
That shows that maybe just using prem appearances might also be a little biased.
Likes of Doughty and the forwards for Luton were quite impactful and had loads of game experience too
So Wharton is already worth £80m+. How does this factor to Palace's over all squad value? And Guehi is worth £65m+? And Brighton are not are our neighbours.
Southampton and Fulham over Palace is maddening as a Palace fan
as a newcastle fan i completely agree
Southampton surviving is crazy. They’re going straight back down
I love how screwed Chelsea are based on their squad currently, it's even funnier the fact that they keep on buying players to the point of having 6 goalkeepers and 6 strikers in their first team 😂
We don’t have 6 first team strikers or keepers. Our squad is also pretty damn good. Easily 4th.
Arsenal, Liverpool, or Manchester City will win the title this season. I'm looking forward to seeing in which order they finish. COYG
Newcastle are going to be 4th this year, funny analysis we will see
Seamus, Gana, and Ashley Young heavily skew the mean appareances and age older for Everton. Undoubtedly, still an older squad, but not as much as at first glance.
Talking about outliers. Seamus has 450ish games played and ashley young is 39. Those are extreme outliers
Crystal Palace have european competition level players in Guehi - Andersen, Doucoure (tho he has injury problems), Eze and Olise (now gone), apart from really competitive players under EPL standards in Mateta and Mitchell.
Brighton do have a whole lot of young players with room to grow, but there's not enough talent. They have no players who are even near european competition level, and although they could still function after Trossard's, MacAllister's and Caicedo's departures, the ceiling is definetely lower. They also let Gross go, who has experience and was probably their best player.
Newcastle have a higher competitive floor than Brighton as they have more experienced players, and a higher ceiling with players like Gordon, Isak, Bruno, Tonali, Botman, Trippier... I can't understand how they go under West Ham and Brighton.
Top 11 is the following:
City
Arsenal
Liverpool
Chelsea
United
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Newcastle
West Ham
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Does market value really dictate how good your squad is? It will obviously favour the younger squads. As a Newcastle fan, if we get Guehi and sign a right-winger, our squad is incredibly balanced. Don't count out young players like Trevan Sanusi, Alex Murphy, and Alfie Harrison from featuring this season (should they not be loaned out).
If there was an effective ratio of squad quality to squad value you could measure how far along a squads project the club is. Btw guehi ain’t gonna stop you conceding 75 goals this season
@@dexter6447 You think we are going to concede 75 goals? Based on what?
Putting Brentford there is a joke imo they had Toney out for pretty much the whole season last year they had 7-8 injuries for months upon a time . They’ve bought a few new players with quality including cavahlo.
Newcastle prediction I can’t see , wolves should be lower 💯 .
You’ve had a mare
Couldn’t load the Chelsea squad as it’s too full 😂
My club makes me upset James
Everyone calm down...its ONE MAN'S OPINION.
Until wealthy owners are allow to spend the SAME as those who already have (pre-FFP) deep squads the top of the prem CANNOT be truly competitive.
ALL clubs should be able to build to an equal squad value and not fear point deductions for trying to be competitive.
Did he not tune once to the championship to see Leicester comfortably rose back up but still rules them to be worse off than Southampton ?????
You have had an Absolute Mare there mate Putting Nufc where you did and your supposed to know about football you do realise we played most of last Season with our b-c team the Disrespect is disgusting lad but go on write The Toon of at Your Peril if you will even though we have one of the Best Midfields in the League Bruno G J7 and Tonali the the Best Left Winger in the Prem AG10 2nd Best striker isac then the best Defence of 22/23 in Botman when he's back which is October Schar who took England to the Wire only to be beat by Penalties then Tino and Lewis Hall with Pope the best Sweeper Keeper in League Mate the Disrespect is unreal but we will see
49:56 Solomon was free…
That thumbnail with Chelsea 15th, the boy knows how to get clicks......
Spent 5 minutes on Southampton but 30 seconds on villa lol
Great idea for a video but transfermarkt’s values are absolute shit so it kind of skews things.
For example Antony’s market value is 28m & Kendry Paez’s is 12m. Who in their right mind thinks that’s how much they’d be go for if they were both transfer listed today?
Another year of James wishing man city doesn’t win
had to unsub after that newcastle take
Bro m here to chill close the excel pleaseeeeeeeeeee
All of this is great....but also 100% flawed. Every variable that you slightly change or add or remove will sway the outcome of this "data" heavily. Also...only Prem appearances taking into account. So that says that the assumption is that no other top 5 league experience counts and/or translates to the prem and can be of value. Could probably do an entire essay about why this analysis is flawed, but you kinda get what i am saying. Still great and interesting video. Data is just never ending and putting perimeters on it kinda suggests that it is even though those perimeters could be moving in multiple different directions endlessly and thus change the outcome per club and as a whole.
"Transfermarket…"
Chelsea’s squad is a lot lot better than Spurs’. I understand the point of having a lot of players but there is absolutely no way that spurs team 23 man vs 23 man is even remotely close tbh
It’s not even close either, its funny. There’s a reason our matches looked the way they did despite missing so many players
A finance bro nitpick, can you please remove the gridlines from the spreadsheet? 😢 Love ya content mate !
Yes we get it Newcastle was bad but great video!