Excellent show Peter, this was particularly helpful to me, as an 82yo called into bridge by my sister who's partner died (at 95). I have 1.25 MPs and my learning is going well, but when playing with people who've been playing 40 years or more.....well you can figure that one out. . My main problem was/is the bidding. and this show was particularly helpful. It's hard to learn the bidding as there are sooooo many variables. Thanks a LOT !
Interesting discussion, and I know it would help my game to think more like that. (For me it's hard to think through all that without taking an age though :-).) On that first hand, playing MPs, is your objective to get a good score on that board, or a good score for the session? If it's the former, then playing for the stiff K makes sense, because it's the only way to possibly score more than 10%. However, I'm a statistician, so I'm used to thinking about the "expected value" of a play. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, we will on average get 10% if we finesse the K. If we have less than a 10% chance of dropping the stiff king, then our expected score is still higher if we play the normal line and finesse (assuming, for the sake of argument, we can expect 0% if we try to drop the king and fail, and 100% if we succeed). So, in order to maximize my expected overall score it might still make sense to play the standard line (although trying to drop the K only loses an extra trick when the K is onside anyway, which I think may mean that we only need to drop the stiff K 20% of the time to be ahead on average, but at this point my head is starting to hurt!). I guess what I'm wondering here is whether your choice of line in situations like this is affected by the length of the match? In a long match are you more likely to take the standard line because you figure you have more time to recover from one bad board, or do you still play for the long-shot of dropping the king? I think the choice of line here might also depend on whether you are trying to maximize your overall score, or maximize your probability of finishing in the top 3 (say) overall, which is not the same thing. Sorry, this is the sort of rabbit hole that statisticians find interesting, but probably nobody else does. :-)
Well, here it is simple, because with this line we break even with K singleton onside or K offside (for a total of 50%) and win with K singleton offside(6%), so the expected score is 11%. Of course, with the standard line, we do win against Kxxx onside, which is an additional 4%… But we also have the unknown quantity of breaking even when the Q gets covered. And there is, of course, the psychological «aftershock» where bad boards affect our future scores negatively. :) Just some more thinking material for you.
East was thirsty at trick 1 (7:15), so the D9 gets you up a tempo and a trick. Continuing this silly line of thought based on East's beer-play, is the best line now to take the spade hook, and if it works, duck a diamond? You have 12 tricks already if hearts break, but if they don't, you get 12 whenever someone has 4H + KC clubs, which seems more likely than 4H + 6D and weird lead, or 4H + 6C? Also, playing IMPs I guess you should win trick 1 to avoid a club switch, and hope that had you ducked twice, they would have found the club switch?
Pete there are some aggressive players who believe that in 3rd seat after 2 passes you should open one spade with AKxx xx Dxxxx xx rather than 1 diamond purely for the lead. It also steals the spade suit. and there are some who would semi psyche a spade in 3rd with AQx xx Kxxx Qxxx (Meckstroth did this in the Bermuda Bowl a few years back). What is your thoughts on these actions. Also what does your partner do with an 11 count, do you play Drury? Thanks
If I was to open the first hand I would definitely open 1S. 1D does nothing for your objectives. I think I would only consider opening it 1S at fav though. I am no the fan of the semi psyche but I can see how ti can work though. I do play drury but not because I open light but because I think it is an awesome convention anyway. I would also open light without drury.
Excellent show Peter, this was particularly helpful to me, as an 82yo called into bridge by my sister who's partner died (at 95). I have 1.25 MPs and my learning is going well, but when playing with people who've been playing 40 years or more.....well you can figure that one out. . My main problem was/is the bidding. and this show was particularly helpful. It's hard to learn the bidding as there are sooooo many variables. Thanks a LOT !
Very useful insights, as always. Keep up the good work, Pete!
Thanks Costas
Enjoyed this lesson!
Interesting discussion, and I know it would help my game to think more like that. (For me it's hard to think through all that without taking an age though :-).)
On that first hand, playing MPs, is your objective to get a good score on that board, or a good score for the session? If it's the former, then playing for the stiff K makes sense, because it's the only way to possibly score more than 10%. However, I'm a statistician, so I'm used to thinking about the "expected value" of a play. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, we will on average get 10% if we finesse the K. If we have less than a 10% chance of dropping the stiff king, then our expected score is still higher if we play the normal line and finesse (assuming, for the sake of argument, we can expect 0% if we try to drop the king and fail, and 100% if we succeed). So, in order to maximize my expected overall score it might still make sense to play the standard line (although trying to drop the K only loses an extra trick when the K is onside anyway, which I think may mean that we only need to drop the stiff K 20% of the time to be ahead on average, but at this point my head is starting to hurt!).
I guess what I'm wondering here is whether your choice of line in situations like this is affected by the length of the match? In a long match are you more likely to take the standard line because you figure you have more time to recover from one bad board, or do you still play for the long-shot of dropping the king? I think the choice of line here might also depend on whether you are trying to maximize your overall score, or maximize your probability of finishing in the top 3 (say) overall, which is not the same thing.
Sorry, this is the sort of rabbit hole that statisticians find interesting, but probably nobody else does. :-)
Well, here it is simple, because with this line we break even with K singleton onside or K offside (for a total of 50%) and win with K singleton offside(6%), so the expected score is 11%. Of course, with the standard line, we do win against Kxxx onside, which is an additional 4%… But we also have the unknown quantity of breaking even when the Q gets covered. And there is, of course, the psychological «aftershock» where bad boards affect our future scores negatively. :) Just some more thinking material for you.
East was thirsty at trick 1 (7:15), so the D9 gets you up a tempo and a trick.
Continuing this silly line of thought based on East's beer-play, is the best line now to take the spade hook, and if it works, duck a diamond? You have 12 tricks already if hearts break, but if they don't, you get 12 whenever someone has 4H + KC clubs, which seems more likely than 4H + 6D and weird lead, or 4H + 6C?
Also, playing IMPs I guess you should win trick 1 to avoid a club switch, and hope that had you ducked twice, they would have found the club switch?
Pete there are some aggressive players who believe that in 3rd seat after 2 passes you should open one spade with AKxx xx Dxxxx xx rather than 1 diamond purely for the lead. It also steals the spade suit. and there are some who would semi psyche a spade in 3rd with AQx xx Kxxx Qxxx (Meckstroth did this in the Bermuda Bowl a few years back). What is your thoughts on these actions. Also what does your partner do with an 11 count, do you play Drury? Thanks
If I was to open the first hand I would definitely open 1S. 1D does nothing for your objectives. I think I would only consider opening it 1S at fav though. I am no the fan of the semi psyche but I can see how ti can work though. I do play drury but not because I open light but because I think it is an awesome convention anyway. I would also open light without drury.
Qq